Tag Archives: Washington U.

Dave’s Top 25 Ballot (’16-’17): Week 2

Posted on by
Denison enters Dave's Top 25 ballot this week, but not without some second guessing.

Denison enters Dave’s Top 25 ballot this week, but not without some second guessing.

Another interesting week of games to mull over as a D3hoops.com Top 25 voter. The top held firm for the most part, but there were still some surprising results to try and figure out.

At the same time, there are large number of teams who are showing early they may be pretty good. That is the part that is so difficult to figure out early in a season. Are these teams legit? Are their schedules an indication of strength? Are these results smoke and mirrors? When does reality set in (if it is different than what we are seeing)?

I think that is the most difficult part of voting this early in any season, but especially now with so much parity (are you tired of hearing about parity?). A lot of teams start 5-0, 6-0, etc., but not all of them truly are Top 25 teams. Just because you start a season undefeated doesn’t mean you are one of the Top 25 teams in the country.

As an example, there are 24 teams without a loss in Division III men’s basketball through Monday, December 5. Prior to December 1? 38!

Not all teams or schedules are created equal. So, weeding through who is undefeated and why, along with who have lost games and why, is challenging. Even more so when on top of the 24 teams who are undefeated who have 77 who have suffered a single loss, and more than 165 with two losses (80 with a winning percentage of .750 or better).

There simply isn’t enough room to honor everyone. I also have tried very hard not to fall back on the “usual suspects,” not when there are so many teams who have entered the mix. But that is what makes it harder. As a voter, you understand who the WashUs, Woosters, IWUs, UW-Whitewaters of the Division III world have done over the years. It is probably easier to plug them into a Top 25 based on a good start than it is to look at the Denisons, Swarthmores, Endicotts, Keene States and understand the significance of their seasons. It is harder to go with what you don’t know as well than what you do know.

That was a lot of what was on my mind as I tackled my voting. Trying to better understand programs, schedules, and not go with the “usual suspects.”

A reminder, here is last week’s ballot.

And here is this week’s (with far less capsules on teams to avoid being repetitive):

Tufts is being led by Vincent Page (16.0 ppg) and despite the loss remained in place on Dave's ballot this week.

Tufts is being led by Vincent Page (16.0 ppg) and despite the loss remained in place on Dave’s ballot this week.

1 – Babson (Unchanged)

2 – Marietta (Unchanged)

3 – Amherst (Unchanged)

4 – Tufts (Unchanged)
I will be brief with this. By my previous ballot, Tufts v Babson was predicted to be a Babson win. Tufts held strong and played well. I am not going to then move them down my poll if my previous ballot predicted the Jumbos would lose. Though, it was a good week for Tufts – I had the honor of calling the Division III men’s soccer championship weekend for NCAA.com and the Jumbos won their second title in three years in double-overtime over Calvin. Congrats to Tufts! (OK, shameless plug finished).

5 – Christopher Newport (Up 1)

6 – Whitman (Up 2)

7 – Whitworth (Up 2)

8 – St. Norbert (Up 2)

9 – Hope (Up 2)

10 – Rochester (Up 3)

NCC's Conor Rairdon was 5-15 (12 points) from the field in 39 minutes in the Cardinales concerning 57-40 loss to UW-Platteville.

NCC’s Conor Rairdon was 5-15 (12 points) from the field in 39 minutes in the Cardinales concerning 57-40 loss to UW-Platteville.

11 – North Central (Down 6)
The Cardinals only have lost once and did a nice job to beat Illinois Wesleyan following that loss, but I can’t get the performance against UW-Platteville out of my head. From all accounts and from reading what I could, it was a bad game. But it also may not be a game NCC can avoid in the future. There may be some telling problems that could be exposed later in the season especially against the tough CCIW.

12 – Salisbury (Up 3)

13 – Wooster (Down 6)
This would be one of those “usual suspects.” After I voted, but before crafting this blog, I did have a discussion with someone who raised something that has been in my head for years: find it frustrating that Wooster gets a certain “benefit of the doubt.” I know over the last few years I have made a similar point, but not as perfectly said. This is not to take away from Wooster, but it is to raise the question in my own head – I am just plugging the Scots in because it says “Wooster” on my sheet? Am I putting them too high for the same reason? Denison beat them (now twice in a row; more on them later) and the Scots have two losses albeit to two apparently very good teams (we know Marietta is good). I initially only brought Wooster down a few slots. I then realized I was being a little too kind. But there is an argument Wooster should be further down in this and the overall poll.

14 – Baldwin Wallace (Unchanged)
As with Tufts, my poll predicted Baldwin Wallace would lose to Hope Marietta (my apologies over the mistaken opponent), so I haven’t moved them. That said, this is one of those teams you try and better understand despite not being from a group you know well. I nervously watch to see if the shoe will drop on the Yellow Jackets. Shamelessly, I hope they continue to have a great season.

15 – New Jersey City (Up 1)

16 – Skidmore (Up 1)

17 – St. Thomas (Down 5)
A surprising loss to Augsburg certainly had me take notice. Don’t get me wrong, I do not believe the Tommies were as good as last year, but they have proven over the years to always been a solid Top 25 team (no, not just a plug-them-in squad). I was also reminded that they had a surprisingly lost last year to Carleton at the same time of the year (second game of conference play). I will be watching to see how they do against St. John’s and UW-Stevens Point coming up to truly get a pulse on this revamped squad.

18 – Endicott (Up 4)

IWU's Trevor Seibring is one of five players averaging double-figures in points for the Titans.

IWU’s Trevor Seibring is one of five players averaging double-figures in points for the Titans.

19 – Illinois Wesleyan (Unchanged)
See my notes on Tufts and Baldwin Wallace. The Titans were predicted in my poll to lose to North Central. Yes, the Cardinals did fall based on their loss to UW-Platteville, but they didn’t fall in my mind below IWU prior to their game.

20 – Benedictine (Unchanged)

21 – Lynchburg (Down 3)
The loss to Shenandoah gave me pause, even if it was an overtime battle. Have I misread the Hornets? I have seen them in person and usually I will pick out concerns. However, I liked what I saw with Lynchburg. But there is the question of who might be the best in the ODAC and others are coming to light like Emory and Henry that have given me pause.

22 – Denison (Unranked)
Per the conversation about Wooster, there is a point here that maybe I have Denison FAR too low. They beat Wooster already this season and who can forget their upset of the Scots in the NCAC playoffs last season? From some reports (received after I voted), Denison is for real but there could be an argument they are suffering from the “usual suspects” conundrum. After a few conversations, I did wonder if I have the Big Red far too low on my ballot.

23 – Emory (Unchanged)

Zach Yonda and Swarthmore have entered the D3hoops.com Top 25 for the first time in program history. (Courtesy: Swarthmore Athletics)

Zach Yonda and Swarthmore have entered the D3hoops.com Top 25 for the first time in program history. (Courtesy: Swarthmore Athletics)

24 – Swarthmore (Unranked)
I had a trusted colleague basically whisper in my ear in the month before season started that Swarthmore was going to win the Centennial and they would be very good. I was skeptical. I don’t think the top of the Centennial will be world beaters this year (F&M will struggle far more than people realize). However, the Garnet had a big win over Dickinson and seem to be playing well. I do struggle to read into their schedule with the likes of PSU-Abington, Centenary (N.J.), and Washington College (who has an upset win over Gettysburg). But the wins over Misericord and Dickinson do cause me to take note. Ursinus and Rowan ahead will be a good barometer.

25 – Keene State (Down 4)
Could the limelight be too bright for the Owls? Maybe. Suffered their first loss to Mass-Dartmouth last week. People forget the Corsairs were very much in the LEC conversation last year with an improved squad. So, I am giving Keene State the benefit of the doubt. There is a far larger target on their backs this year thanks to that incredible NCAA tournament last season. How they respond to the loss will be my litmus test.

Dropped Out:

Nate Axelrod (seen last year against Benedictine in NCAA tournament) and Ohio Wesleyan are off to a tough start to the season.

Nate Axelrod (seen last year against Benedictine in NCAA tournament) and Ohio Wesleyan are off to a tough start to the season.

Ohio Wesleyan (Previously 24)
Another loss for the Battling Bishops who appear to be battling team chemistry and expectations this season. Three in a row to Capital, Illinois Wesleyan, and Otterbein before finally righting the ship (maybe temporarily) against DePauw. There are a number of good tests ahead in and out of conference for OWU, here is hoping they haven’t used up their at-large flexibility before December even started. In the meantime, my preseason #3 pick will sit off my ballot for a while before I can believe they were as good as I expected.

John Carroll (Previously 25)
What is going on in University Heights? Is the team distracted by the incredible season the football squad is having (if you don’t know, you really should check it out on D3football.com)? Could Mike Moran be trying to hand the reigns to his son ahead of time to try and slide the job to him? Could that be screwing up chemistry? Ok, so that last part probably isn’t the case, but I would be lying if it hasn’t crossed my mind a few times. Outside shooting is clearly off and the team is clearly struggling. Losses to Hanover, La Roche, Hope, and Muskingum (undefeated!) have put the Blue Streaks season in peril. Marietta is looming along with some other challenges. I will be a bit over-the-top by saying: things aren’t looking good.

A gentle reminder that I am just one of 25 voters in the D3hoops.com Top 25. I represent one opinion. I am completely fine with those who disagree – there are 24 other voters who disagree because only four others have the same first-place team and I bet anything no one has the exact same Top 25. Just remember, though, just because I have a different opinion doesn’t mean I am right. I will admit when I am wrong as I have already this year. So be gentle when commenting. HA!

Dave’s Top 25 Ballot: Week 9

Posted on by

Dave tore up his ballot this week and tried to start over.

BOOM!

That sound you may have heard was me finally doing what I had been debating, and threatening, to do for weeks – blow up my ballot. It wasn’t a complete and devastating destruction, but it was good enough to make me rethink a number of teams, positions, and my thought process behind many. Surprisingly, not as many teams at the top shifted as dramatically as I thought they would in my head. However, the bottom half basically went through a complete make-over including cutting bait with teams because I just couldn’t justify my decisions anymore.

I also dove into more teams than usual this time of year and I dove into more data than I usually like to do. Many know I am not a fan of Massey Ratings, but this is the time of year I do take a look at their numbers to see if there is something I am missing. I don’t end up agreeing with Massey, but it at least forces me to reevaluate a team I am either under- or over-selling and it helps me make sure I am not missing anyone.

Same is true with the NCAA SOS numbers. Of course, we don’t have access to those numbers until Wednesday (when the first Regional Rankings debut), but math-expert Matt Snyder has his own “math” working online, based on the NCAA formula, which gives us at least a good idea of what to expect from the NCAA data (Matt will get a chance to double-check his formula(s) on Wednesday). While I am certainly not ranking my teams per the SOS, it does give me a better insight on what their schedule actually looks like from a data point of view. This sometimes will force me to dive into a team’s schedule further to figure out, maybe, why it doesn’t add up to my expectations (high or low).

This week’s ballot started with a completely blank piece of paper.

As a result of all of this, I ended up writing down a total of 45 teams, including my previous Top 25, to research and analyze. Each week this season I have had between 50-70 teams that have at least crossed my mind, but by the time I get down to researching, I have whittled that number down to 30-35. Also, I will sometimes breeze over teams I have near the top or know well to save myself time. However, this week, there was a solid 45 teams to go through and I went through each of their schedules, games, and notes I have on them in the past few weeks.

That’s what you do when you blow up your ballot.

As a result, my top ten went through a bit of a shuffle – though, it ended up not as severe as it started. I had moved some teams around significantly at the beginning before settling down to a more reserved shuffle in the end. The bottom fifteen, on the other hand, was completely turned on its head. I dropped four teams some of whom might surprise you despite big wins. I nearly dropped a fifth, but ended up deciding to hold on to my 25th team a little longer despite a major voice in the back of head not pleased with the decision.

With that being said, here is my Top 25 (which you can compare to the D3hoops.com Top 25). I am not going to comment on much of the top ten to save time and space. There are moves, they probably make sense. If they don’t, let me know. I wanted to focus my writing time mainly on the moves I made in the bottom half.

John Carroll moved up to No. 3 on Dave’s ballot this week.

1 – Augustana^ (Unchanged)

2 – Benedictine (Up 2)

3 – John Carroll (Up 2)

4 – St. Thomas* (Down 1)

5 – Whitworth* (Down 3)

6 – Hope (Unchanged)

7 – Christopher Newport (Up 2)

8 – Ohio Wesleyan (Down 1)

9 – Elmhurst (Down 1)

10 – Marietta (Unchanged)

11 – Johnson and Wales (Unchanged)

12 – Susquehanna^ (Unchanged)

13 – St. Norbert (Up 2)

The Chargers have jumped up Dave’s ballot thanks to dominating wins in NEAC play.

14 – Lancaster Bible (Up 4)
This is a big jump in my mind for the Chargers. The simple fact is at this time of the year with an unbeaten team in a sub-par conference I am looking for one thing: domination. Lancaster Bible is dominating the NEAC. They are winning conference games by nearly 27-points this season and haven’t had a game closer than 15 since beating Cairn by four on December 11th. Sure, the conference isn’t giving up much of a fight and there is a really problematic situation coming should they not win the AQ (SOS is .421 and while probably improve slightly; do you leave a one-loss team at home?). However, the Chargers are starting to prove their early season success was just the tip of the iceberg.

15 – Alma (Down 2)

16 – Plattsburgh State (Up 5)
The Cardinals are pulling away from what I thought was going to be a dog-fight of a SUNYAC race. Plattsburgh has won 13 of their last 14 games and now have a 3 ½ game lead on the conference with five games to play. This has been a six-team race at the top not that long ago. Basically, Plattsburgh is proving to be the only team that can win nearly every night in Central and Western New York.

Whitman proved once again they can beat Whitworth when wearing their home white jerseys.

17 – Whitman (Unranked)
I would be lying if I told you I was comfortable with putting Whitman this high on my ballot. Their win over Whitworth certainly gave me reason to include them, but this high? I realize I am one of the last to buy in to the Missionaries, but we have seen this script before. The only team capable of beating Whitworth in conference over the years is Whitman, but only when playing the game at the Sherwood Center on Whitman’s campus. Does that really make Whitman a good team this season versus others? Outside of beating Whitworth, the Missionaries don’t have a significant win on their schedule. While that doesn’t add up to this decision, I do lean on the fact Whitman has only lost three games and at least has played well in conference. I’m buying in… trepidatiously.

18 – Penn State-Behrend (Up 2)

19 – Mount Union (Up 3)

20 – Amherst (Down 6)
The team-formerly-known-as-the-Lord-Jeffs did not play well against Tufts on Saturday. Shot poorly from deep (28%), got out-rebounded, couldn’t hit a free throw (8-16), and allowed Tufts to have a 21-point lead before realizing they were in trouble. I am just not that confident in the purple team from more-central-than-west Massachusetts. When Amherst has been a national power in the past, these games didn’t exist. They have now dropped three games in their last eight with a resurgent Middlebury and scrappy Hamilton squads waiting to close out the regular season.

21 – Northwestern (Minn.) (Down 2)
Northwestern hasn’t done anything to drop two spots, but they haven’t done anything to make me think they are better than 21st. They have hands-down the worse SOS of any of the teams I am considering, and it’s ugly (.408) and they are barely holding on to the lead in the UMAC thanks to a loss already to St. Scholastica (they will play a rematch in the final game of the season). I just don’t think they are as good as I had them ranked.

Has Wooster reemerged as the best team in the Great Lakes?

22 – Wooster (Unranked)
Welcome back Scots. Looks like the team that has been underperforming to normal Wooster expectations may have found their stride. The win over Ohio Wesleyan a few weeks back is certainly a good sign, but they have also won ten of their last eleven and might pull off the surprise and force the NCAC tournament trough Timken Gymnasium! Their offense is scoring far more points in the last several weeks than it has all season while the defense seems to be staying consistent. Maybe Steve Moore has his team peaking during an off-year at just the right time to surprise some people.

23 – Emory* (Unranked)
Welcome back Eagles. The last two weeks in the UAA have been unbelievable. Emory was a game back of Chicago before playing their home-and-home series over the last two weekends. Now Emory has won six-straight, has a one-game lead on Rochester*, and Chicago has fallen to three-games back. Emory may have a young team, but they are proving they can now win the close games and beat some very good teams while they are at it. By the way, Emory has a ridiculous SOS (.634 unofficially) meaning they could get into the NCAA tournament once again and throw a monkey-wrench into bracketing like they did in 2014.

If Benedictine wasn’t undefeated, we probably would be talking more about Aurora and the NACC. Courtesy: Aurora University Athletics

24 – Aurora (Unranked)
I realize the Spartans lost to Benedictine this week, but have you seen how Aurora has been playing prior? If Benedictine wasn’t undefeated, people would probably be talking about Aurora. Since they lost three of four prior to the holiday break, they won ten in a row before facing Benedictine (now 11 of their past 12) and winning pretty confidently. Of course, maybe Aurora also looks better thanks to pretty much only losing to Benedictine this season. However, a .537 SOS surprised me, but that forced me to look at the schedule and remember a win over North Central (Ill.) and notice they have been putting up points all season.

25 – Franklin & Marshall (Down 1)
I almost cut the Diplomats. I know they are winning, but I am not impressed for some reason. I guess I don’t buy in as much as people would expect. But, I have watched the team for so many years and I just don’t think this team is quite where it can be to be a Top 25 team. The conference is also down (despite a good Swarthmore team who has emerged) and that doesn’t allow F&M to shine as much as they could. I actually had the Diplomats out of my ballot several times and was going to keep it that way until I voted. Then I changed my mind and left them in. Seems weird if they only have three-losses that I don’t have them in my Top 25 despite what that voice in the back of my head is yelling.

Dropped Out:

WPI^ (Previously 16)
The Engineers have lost three in a row. That’s pretty much the reason I dropped them. It is just so hard to buy in to WPI when they always seem to peak early and go through a stretch late in the season like this. The loss to Babson was their second to them and handed the Beavers the NEWMAC lead, but it was the end of three in a row that saw WPI lose to 9-12 (now) Springfield and Emerson.

Chicago has lost four in a row and put themselves in jeopardy of missing the NCAA Tournament. Courtesy: Univ. of Chicago Athletics

Chicago^ (Previously 17)
The Maroons have now lost four in a row, all to Rochester and Emory including an unbelievable loss to the Yellow Jackets on a purposely missed free-throw, rebound, and three-pointer at the buzzer. It is amazing how fast a season can change. Chicago is basically in a must-win situation the rest of the season. Any loss will pretty much eliminate them from winning the UAA crown and throw them into a very crowded Central Region that will make getting an at-large bid very difficult. I really like Chicago and have for years… but this is not good.

Tufts had a tough battle this week, but despite beating Amherst fell out of Dave’s Top 25.

Tufts (Previously 23)
I realize the Jumbos beat Amherst, but they also lost to Trinity this week. No, not a bad loss and certainly a good win, but in a shake-up of my Top 25 I couldn’t hold on to them. They have previous losses to Wesleyan and Middlebury in the last few weeks and just don’t seem to be playing very consistently – they are all over the place. I might be wrong on this, but I just don’t like the look. Plus the fact, if you are good enough to beat Amherst… you should be good enough to be Trinity.

Texas Lutheran (Previously 25)
I was ready to pull this trigger last week, but held on. But a loss to Trinity this past weekend was the straw that broke the back. I don’t doubt the Bulldogs are a very good team this year and could make a bit of a run in the NCAA tournament if the bracket lines up right for them (like East Texas Baptist last year), but it is a crowded field for those worthy of being a Top 25 team and I think Texas Lutheran isn’t fitting the mold right now.

* – teams I have seen in person this season
^ – teams I have saw in person last season

Previous Ballots:

Week 8
Week 7
Week 6
Week 5
Week 4
Week 2
Week 1
Preseason

It certainly is interesting right now. Sometimes the Top 25 settles down a little bit by this time of the year, but not this season. That isn’t overly surprising. There are a lot of good teams across the country and probably some that are flying under the radar. I know I spotted a few that I hadn’t taken as seriously as before in this process of blowing up my radar. Some made my ballot, some others are still off the ballot. There certainly isn’t a shortage of teams who can make arguments they are the best 25 in the country.\

For comparison’s sake, you can also check out Ira Thor’s Top 25 ballot here.

Dave’s Top 25 Blog: Week 7

Posted on by

Kenny Love and the overall #1 Whitworth Pirates moved back into second spot on my ballot.

It was an interesting week for the D3hoops.com Top 25 – at least I thought so. We are getting to the point where things appear to be getting more stable. I didn’t think we would ever get to that point and having said that I have probably jinxed myself for the rest of the season. However, I think myself and other voters are starting to feel more comfortable with far more of the ballot. It used to be just the top five, then maybe eight or nine, but now I feel like the top fifteen or more are a bit more solid and I am just working on filling out the rest. In other words, this week’s ballot felt more like ballots of seasons past!

Unfortunately, I did not get to see as many games online as I normally do this past week. Despite the fact a blizzard kept me indoors over the weekend, it didn’t mean I had all of this free time to just watch games. When you are expecting two to three feet of snow, you spend part of that time shoveling during the storm so you can open your doors and have less to break your back over after the storm. Thank goodness I got out a few times during the storm as three feet is what ended up falling on us and I wouldn’t have wanted to tackle that all at once (I am still shoveling three days later!).

As a result, I have concentrated my efforts a little more on posts on the Posting Up boards from those who see teams in action and know them the best. You have to be careful with this tactic as you will get some very different points of view from two people who were at the same game – seen through whatever tint their glasses are per their rooting interests. However, there are a number of solid posters who continually give great accounts of games or input that you can’t always appreciate watching a game online. I will admit, I am not great at breaking a game down through written word, so I truly appreciate those who do.

There still remains one major challenge: There are a number of deserving or seem-to-be-deserving teams worthy of Top 25 love, but not enough spots to put them in. Each week I struggle to figure out how to get teams on my ballot and figure out who to remove. In weeks past when there were losses-a-plenty, it was a little bit easier. However, the last few weeks have seen a downward trend in losses on my ballot meaning I have less teams I am willing to dump for others.

The other challenge comes with squads people think deserve to be in the Top 25 because they got a big win or two. One such team came up in conversation on Twitter recently:

While the tweet wasn’t directed at me, I saw it and it made me think. Wesleyan has been on my radar for weeks, but I keep having problems with some of their results. This past week they beat up on Amherst and beat Tufts as well. Pretty good week, right? But prior to that they had lost three of four games including Amherst beating up on them in a game that actually counted for the NESCAC. (Amherst, Wesleyan, and Williams all play a second round of games against each other for Little Three bragging rights. The first Amherst-Wesleyan game counted for NESCAC play: Amherst won. The second game counted for the Little Three only: Wesleyan won.) By the way, when I say they beat each other up, Amherst won the first game by 24 and Wesleyan won the second game by 27. And then there is that Lyndon State (6-9) game the very first game of the season which Wesleyan lost by 2. While it was the first game of the season, it is still a loss I struggle to understand other than it was the first game of the season.

Rashid Epps and Wesleyan have had an up and down three weeks. Credit: Wesleyan Athletics

In my back and forth Twittersation with 757Basketball, they expressed bewilderment as to why Wesleyan wouldn’t be getting love for winning the NESCAC title last season. This is the funniest part because I can’t tell you how many people will tell me they want me voting on only this year’s results, while another set of people understands if I take history into account (not winning a title, but trends and consistency), and other set of people want me to lean heavily on history. I can’t win! LOL

Wesleyan is ranked in the Top 25 on this week’s D3hoops poll, but I will break the suspense and tell you they are not on my ballot below. The Dr. Jeckyll and Mr. Hyde routine of the past three weeks doesn’t make make comfortable putting them on my ballot just yet. However, the Cardinals have some solid opponents coming up in the final five games of the season. Play well and I am sure I can find room on a crowded ballot.

One more thing before I continue on with this week’s ballot, I want to recognize Ira Thor and Ryan Scott. Last week Ira started blogging his ballot for the world to see and Ryan Scott followed suit with his blog this week. They both recognized the fact I am doing it as part of the reason they are being transparent and I congratulate them for taking what is honestly a bold step forward in revealing their voting and even thinking behind their decisions. It only helps to give people a better understanding of how different voters vote because there are 25 completely different voters with very different mindsets and interpretations. Some of us might chat with one another, but we certainly don’t all vote the same way. To see their ballots, you can click here for Ira’s and click here for Ryan’s.

Now on to my ballot from this week (forgive the lack of brevity for some of these, not a lot of time this week for writing):

1 – Augustana^ (Unchanged)

2 – Whitworth* (Up 1)

3 – St. Thomas* (Up 1)

4 – Benedictine (Up 1)

5 – John Carroll (Up 1)

6 – Ohio Wesleyan (Up 1)

Elmhurst last unbeaten to lose in the CCIW this season.

7 – Elmhurst (Down 5)
My point a few weeks ago when Augustana lost to Elmhurst on the road was that I expected the Vikings to lose a game in CCIW play. It’s been 43 seasons since someone went through conference play undefeated and I didn’t expect it to happen this year. As a result, I did not and I have not moved Augustana off of my top spot. So Elmhurst losing to North Central, on the road, isn’t all that surprising in the fact that I didn’t expect the Blue Jays to go undefeated in the CCIW either (or they would have been my number one team!). However, it was an 18-point loss not a two-point, overtime loss like Augustana’s. North Central shot very well and Elmhurst was average. So I knew I was going to drop the Blue Jays a couple of spots. They fell a few extra spots only because I couldn’t argue they were better than the teams ahead of them right now. So, five spots is a tough drop for a road loss in conference, but to be honest I expect them to lose another road game this week (Augustana).

For those wondering, no, North Central did not make my ballot this week. I only have one five-loss team on my ballot and seriously considered dropping them off this week as well. It is a decision I am not exactly sure of even as I write this, but it is the decision I went with when it click “submit.”

8 – Hope (Unchanged)

9 – Christopher Newport (Up 1)

10 – Susquehanna* (Up 1)

11 – Marietta (Up 1)

12 – Chicago^ (Up 1)

13 – Johnson and Wales (Up 2)
The Wildcats continue to dominate in their conference. I am serious when I say even Albertus Magnus didn’t dominate the GNAC like this in the last few years. 36 points per game! But for those who have followed my blog over the years, you will notice J&W is in about the same spot as AMC has been this time of the year almost every season.

14 – WPI (Up 2)

Lord Jeff no more at Amherst. Just part of a rough week on campus. Credit: Independent Journal

15 – Amherst (Down 6)
Not a good week for the Lord Jeffs – and the final time I will probably be uttering those two words. I’m not sure the ramping up style of scheduling Amherst has done over the last few years (starting with easier opponents and working towards more challenging ones before conference play) is working out this season. That coupled with the fact the NESCAC is a far deeper conference than in years past contributed to a 1-2 week for Amherst. Wesleyan, as noted earlier, and then Colby nipped the purple team from central Massachusetts. The only bright spot, a thorough thumping of Bowdoin in the middle of a three-game road trip. It won’t get any easier for Amherst, maybe, as they continue what is a five game road stretch with games at Williams (12-6) and Trinity (14-4) this week. Amherst is clearly not as good as what voter’s thought in the preseason (#3) nor I (#5). I will be watching very closely to see how Dave Hixon’s squad responds this week.

16 – Alma (Up 2)

17 – Texas Lutheran (Up 2)

18 – Lancaster Bible (Up 2)

19 – St. Norbert (Unranked)
I am making up for last week’s mistake of accidently leaving St. Norbert off my ballot. However, it might have been a blessing in disguise. It forced me to reevaluate the Green Knights since I had them off my ballot. I needed to find a spot to place them and maybe broke up a rut I was in with SNC. I didn’t seem to be able to move them out of the twenties. This might get me moving them around a bit more since with two-losses they are playing better than expectations – AGAIN. I could have moved them up further as well, but at least they are back on the poll where they deserve to be!

20 – Roanoke (Up 3)

21 – Northwestern (Up 3)

22 – Brooklyn (Up 3)

Mount Union needs to win a big game other than Chicago earlier this season.

23 – Mount Union (Down 9)
I’ll be brutally honest, despite having them 14th and losing to a team I and the D3hoops.com voting group had ranked ahead of them (Marietta), I almost pulled the plug on the Purple Raiders. Five losses are the most any team has on my ballot. It is also the most on the overall poll, but that team is North Central. I realize Mount Union has played a very difficult schedule, in what has become a fascinatingly tough OAC race, but at some point I have expected UMU to beat a ranked team! They have a win over Chicago, but they have losses to William Paterson (once ranked), North Central, John Carroll, and Marietta (last two in back-to-back games). What is worse, when Mount Union losses it isn’t close. The average spread in a loss is 13.8 with six being the closest in a game against Colby. I decided to hold on just a little longer because I think the Purple Raiders are a very good team, but they won’t get another “big” game until Feb. 17 against John Carroll. I expect them to win every game between then to be blunt.

24 – Tufts (Down 7)
I nearly pulled the plug here as well. The Jumbos have lost two of their last four including to starting-to-get-hot Middlebury and schizophrenic Wesleyan. At least the games have been close, but as NESCAC play has intensified Tufts seems to be wilting a little. They only beat Conn College by two the other day on the road. Interestingly, Tufts has two non-conference games in the next three which might not tell us anything, so I wait patiently.

25 – Franklin & Marshall (Down 4)
The Diplomats only ended up playing one game due to the Blizzard last week and lost to Gettysburg (they have since beaten McDaniel in a twice-postponed-game). While F&M made a run in the second half to try and make it interesting, the Bullets pulled away in the end and left F&M floundering with 57 points. This is the same point in the season last year when the unexpectedly hot season fizzled on the Diplomats. They had started 14-0 and 7-0 in conference before losing their first game on January 17. They would go on to lose six of their final twelve games of the season and miss out on the NCAA Tournament. This is basically the same team, expect supposedly with more experience. However, the conference isn’t scared of the Diplomats and with Dickinson looking to prove they are still good coming up and a tough finishing set of games remaining, F&M needs to put the blinders on and focus on the task at hand – securing home-court advantage for the Centennial playoffs or this season is going to end just as suddenly as last year’s.

Dropped Out:

Trine’s undoing started with a loss at Calvin. Courtesy: Trine Athletics

Trine (Previously 22)
I did to Trine what I nearly did to Mount Union. After starting the season 10-1, the Thunder have gone 3-3 in their last six and now sit 3-3 in the conference race in a three-way tie for third. Furthermore, they haven’t beaten the really good or ranked teams on their schedule. They have lost to Ohio Wesleyan, Calvin, Hope, and Alma. Three of those teams ranked and all three conference losses to teams ahead of tied with them in the standings. Trine needs to man-up and get a significant win. They have a home game against Calvin coming up this week which can help them greatly (since they are tied with the Knights in third place), but Hope and Alma won’t show up on the schedule for a few more weeks.

* – teams I have seen in person this season
^ – teams I have saw in person last season

Previous Ballots
Week 6
Week 5
Week 4
Week 2
Week 1
Preseason

So, only one team entered the ballot (with one team dropping out) and it’s the first team to re-enter my ballot this season. They also shouldn’t have been off my ballot in the first place!

There are still probably 20 or so teams I have “on my radar” that I spend the most time on each week trying to figure out if they deserve to be on my ballot or not. And if they do, who should be removed.

Sometimes I blow up my ballot because I have gotten into ruts and teams probably should be moved more drastically then I am allowing in its current structure. Other times I blow it up is when I feel like I have put myself in a corner and can’t find good enough reasons to move teams on or off accordingly. This week with the bottom third of the ballot feeling somewhat set, I feel a ballot blow up coming… just to shake up my thinking.

Dave’s Top 25 Ballot: Week 6

Posted on by
Will Starks and John Carroll moved up on Dave's ballot thanks to a big win over Mount Union.

Will Starks and John Carroll moved up on Dave’s ballot thanks to a big win over Mount Union.

Another week, another challenging D3hoops.com Top 25 to consider. The top of the poll is somewhat solid. Not many changes, some shuffling, but the top fourteen spots didn’t take much time to decide on. It was the next eleven spots which are difficult, especially the massive vacuum that seems to reside in that area. Not the kind of vacuum that sucks everything up, but the kind of vacuum that is an empty, devoid space.

There have been a few vacuums this season on my ballot. At the beginning it resided between 5-10 on the poll. It has steadily moved down the poll as some of the good teams I had reservations about have proven themselves pretty strong. It has been starting around 12-15 for a few weeks now.

That’s the complication. There are a high number of teams who certainly can make arguments to be Top 25 teams – I’ve said probably up to 70 teams some weeks. But there is a place on the poll each week where it doesn’t feel like teams are good enough to be ranked there, but no one else should be there either. It’s a vacuum.

I have dealt with these vacuums in two ways this season: moved teams from below up into the ranks to fill the hole; inserted teams unranked before to fill the hole. The first option I used when the vacuum was further up in the Top 10. I didn’t have teams unranked the week prior who could just jump into a slot in the range of five to ten. However, as the vacuum has shifted further down, I have inserted unranked teams into as high as 15, I believe. Neither option feels comfortable because I am basically putting teams where I don’t think they fit. But again, there is a vacuum I need to fill and it may have backfired on me last week.

None the less, there is a vacuum for me starting right at number fifteen. I went with the “unranked last week” plan of attack yet again and took a risk.

With that all said… let’s get to the ballot! But first, a shout-out to my fellow voter Ira Thor who decided to reveal his Top 25 as well. I applaud him for deciding to be transparent. I know others who will tell you their ballot should you ask (being transparent) and I think it’s good to help people understand what voters are thinking.

1 – Augustana^ (Unchanged)
No reason to change my mind here, though it has been an interesting to see how the first place votes have been breaking down and the reactions to those votes.

2 – Elmhurst (Unchanged)

3 – Whitworth* (Unchanged)

4 – St. Thomas* (Up 1)
Three-game week resulted in no losses and included a solid win over Augsburg and an import win over St. John’s.

Luke Johnson and Benedictine continue to avoid an in-conference hiccup.

5 – Benedictine (Up 1)
The Eagles continue to avoid what I worry about the most: a conference loss which could spiral into a couple of losses quickly. In games they should win, they dominated at least one of them this past week.

6 – John Carroll (Up 4)
The Blue Streaks are proving they are for real this season. You will remember I have been nervous of what was really going on in University Heights, Ohio, but a high-scoring 116-93 win over ranked Mount Union was what I was looking for on my personal litmus test for the team. Granted, it was a litmus test across the board for John Carroll, but I was very interested not only if John Carroll could win the game, but would they do it on their own terms – high scoring game tells me it was on their own terms. Now the target is squarely on JCU. They have wins over Marietta and Mount Union, but they won those games at home. They have ten games remaining for the conference tournament and have to play Marietta and Mount Union on the road… in back-to-back games in February.

7 – Ohio Wesleyan (Unchanged)

8 – Hope (Down 4)
The Dutchmen’s fall of four spots to a pretty good Alma team is three-fold: they did lose a game granted on the road, they haven’t looked all that strong in the last few weeks, and the movement of other teams didn’t find a hole until number eight. I still think Hope is a dangerous team who has a chance at being very special this season, but since returning from the holiday break, they barely beat Albion at home (68-65), had a tougher-than-expected game at Olivet (79-64), and the loss on the road to Alma. They backed that up with an emphatic win over Trine (74-51) which probably should have kept them from falling four spots. However, I don’t think they are playing better than the teams ahead of them and when I moved John Carroll up four spots the only opening I had left was here at eight. I just want to see Hope start to play a little more consistently at a high-level that I have become accustom to this season.

9 – Amherst (Unchanged)

Tim Daly and Christopher Newport are quietly putting together one of their best seasons in program history. Courtesy: Christopher Newport Athletics/Keller Gabriel

10 – Christopher Newport (Up 1)
Quick comment on the Captains – they are playing some really good basketball. The CAC has been an interesting conference where almost anyone can rise to the occasion to beat someone on top, but Christopher Newport has been dominating everyone. They haven’t had a conference game in single-digits at the end all season. The closest anyone has come has been Salisbury (71-60) and Marymount (68-58) at the beginning of December. This might be a team who will quietly go far into the tournament this year before anyone realizes what is actually happening.

11 – Susquehanna* (Down 4)
This has been a magical season for the Crusaders and going undefeated in the conference was certainly on everyone’s mind no matter how unrealistic it may have been an expectation. But when they beat-up on Scranton on the road and having already beaten Catholic at home, that expectation began to take root. Was I surprised they lost? No. However, I didn’t think they would lose to a team in the bottom two-thirds, or so, of the conference. I figured Catholic or Scranton would eventually trip them up. Drew is a good team, but that was a road game Susquehanna should have won to remain a Top Ten squad.

12 – Marietta (Unchanged)

13 – Chicago^ (Unchanged)

14 –Mount Union (Unchanged)

Quarry Greenaway and J&W are blowing out teams in conference by more than 36 points per game! Courtesy: Johnson and Wales Athletics

15 – Johnson and Wales (Unranked)
And here we enter the vacuum of my poll right now. I am going with a risk with Johnson and Wales here because… have you seen the Wildcats this season? We had Coach Jamie Benton on Hoopsville earlier this season when they got out to a good start. Should they keep this up, he will appear again to talk about dancing in the NCAA Tournament. They are not only 9-0 in the GNAC, a conference Albertus Magnus has dominated the last few season, but they dismantled a rebuilding, but still good (11-3), AMC squad 113-58 at home last week. They are beating conference teams by an average of 37.6 points per game! For comparison, Albertus Magnus beat their conference opponents by 18.8 ppg last season. J&W’s one loss this season? Linfield in the opening game of the season at Lewis and Clark. Considering the travel alone for that game, I am going to give the Wildcats a pass. I just don’t know if going from unranked to 15th is a smart move on my part.

16 – WPI (Down 1)
A loss to Babson isn’t a surprise expect that it was a home loss. The worry I have is the Engineers didn’t play well on the road against Emerson in the next game. I wasn’t buying into WPI early on. Now I have and it looks like they have hit a funk. We shall see.

17 – Tufts (Down 1)

Sam Hargraves and the Scots are in the D3hoops.com Top 25 for the first time in program history. Courtesy: Alma Athletics

18 – Alma (Unranked)
I had bracketed this past week for Alma several weeks ago. At home against Hope and then on the road against Calvin. This was a true test. Boy were the Scots ready! They beat Hope by 11 in a game they clearly were the better team and then beat-up on Calvin by 22. This squad is not a surprise in the conference. You might remember Hope’s Greg Mitchell talking about them earlier this season on Hoopsville, Kevin Vande Streek talked about them with me at the D3hoops.com Classic, and others have talked about how Alma (and Trine) were going to reshape the top of the MIAA. Alma is proving those thoughts accurate. But there is a lot of basketball to go including on the road against Trine this week and a road Hope, home Calvin set of games in early February.

19 – Texas Lutheran (Down 2)
The Bulldogs didn’t do anything to fall two spots, but they aren’t exactly a team I felt comfortable moving up into the 15th hole (per my previous handling of vacuum problems). But I am also getting nervous I am reading too much into the squad. When I talk to those who have seen them in action, they don’t speak as highly about them as I expect. One voter’s thoughts to me were, “they are good, just good.” I wanted badly to see them this past week when I was in San Antonio, but my schedule didn’t allow it. They do have a win over Alma and are now ranked in my poll behind them. That’s because I think Alma is playing better now than in late December and it was a one-point win in the first place.  The other problem: the losses to Pacific Lutheran, Illinois Wesleyan, and Texas-Tyler are not looking as good or strong as they have in the past. The shine just doesn’t seem to be there for me anymore

Herbie Brown and Lancaster Bible survived the toughest travel weekend of the season.

20 – Lancaster Bible (Unranked)
As with Alma, I had this past weekend bracketed for Lancaster Bible and they delivered. They had their toughest, conference road trip of the season ahead of them and they dominated with wins over Cazenovia (92-77) and Morrisville State (97-66). Morrisville State has been the class of the NEAC for several years, so to go into their place – even if they are having a down year – and beat them my 31 is more than impressive. That coupled with the fact they already have a dominating win over Franklin & Marshall and I am ready to buy in. The only trick is the Chargers are just hitting the midway point of the season. Unlike most teams, they have 13 games to fit into roughly a four-week period (January 22 to February 20). That schedule may take a toll, though eight of the final thirteen games are at home.

21 – Franklin & Marshall^ (Up 4)
The Diplomats have not let Glenn Robinson’s chase for 900 career wins or passing Bobby Knight on the all-time list distract them – nor would he let them for anyone who knows them. However, it can be a very distracting thing. Instead, F&M is in the midst of a six game winning streak. I would rank the squad higher, but they aren’t dominating teams, they are having games finish close that shouldn’t, and they aren’t exactly putting 40 minutes of complete basketball together every night – if they have done it at all this season. But they are good and seemingly deserve to be ranked.

22 – Trine (Down 1)
To be honest, I probably should have pulled Trine out of my ranking. I didn’t expect them to beat Hope especially after the Dutchmen got beat by Alma earlier in the week. But to lose by 23? Ouch. They have also now lost two in the last four games against two of the four teams battling for the top of the conference and with Alma looming on Wednesday, I am nervous that Trine is not going to pass its toughest test of the season (Calvin, Hope, and Alma in five games – 14 days). In hindsight, I might have had a better team to take their place or keep one of those I ejected this week in the poll.

Roanoke was unable to beat Hamden-Sydney, but still played their style of game. Courtesy: Roanoke College Athletics

23 – Roanoke (Down 3)
This is what happens it seems more than I can count. You finally buy into a team, rank them, and they go out and lay an egg. When I quickly chatted, via text, with Page Moir about the Maroons loss to Hampden-Sydney, he said it was a bad shooting night. I didn’t know the score at the time, just that they lost (I was with ODAC members at the NCAA Convention at the time). I looked later and saw the score: 100-92. Bad shooting night and still put 92 points on the board?! Let me tell you the number of coaches would love to have that problem! That is why I am not bailing on Roanoke. They are still playing their game and a bad shooting night is the reason they lost, not the reason they aren’t a Top 25 team. They are still the fourth-highest scoring team in the country (100.0 ppg) and one of those teams hasn’t really played a Division III schedule (Nebraska Wesleyan 100.3 ppg). The other two: Greenville (5-10; 111.7 ppg) and Grinnell (7-7; 106.4 ppg).

24 – Northwestern (Down 5)
I don’t like the loss to St. Scholastica to be blunt. I realize the Saints are 10-6 on the season, but it isn’t a good loss in my mind for the Eagles. I seriously thought about ejecting them from the Top 25 and there could be a strong argument later to have done it. The Eagles have now lost twice in a conference they went undefeated in last season and lost two of their last five games. I might be giving them too much credit for being a tough squad.

25 – Brooklyn (Down 2)
The Bulldogs didn’t do anything necessarily to fall two spots – they beat Hunter in their only game of the week. They just shuffled down two spots due to movement of teams above and around them. I still don’t love their loss to Baruch despite how tough the CUNYAC really is and the fact everyone knows Baruch is one of the tougher match-ups, no matter the record. But they are still a team I think will surprise some people come March.

Dropped Out:

UW-Whitewater (Previously 17)
I can’t say I have ever put a team into my Top 25, especially that high on the ballot after being unranked, and then removed them the next week. Bad week for the Warhawks. Lost to River Falls and Oshkosh Guh. I don’t really have anything to say. I thought they were coming together as a team especially considering how many transfers had come onto the program, but I must have read more into it than there needed to be. I will say last year’s experience of not ranking UW-Stevens Point until even later than this point in the season was in the back of my head, but this was just buying in too soon. This is also an example of why sometimes I am gun-shy about teams that are playing well above my expectations and thus why I tend to be a little slower than some to buy in.

Bridgeport Tusler scored 18 against Augsburg, but it wasn’t enough to avoid the loss for Bethel. Courtesy: Bethel Athletics

Bethel (Previously 22)
I circled this decision for a very long time. I am still not so sure I got this right. I realize they lost to Augsburg, but let’s not pretend that isn’t a good Aggies squad there in Minneapolis. But when Augsburg got thumped in their next game to St. John’s it had a trickle down affect to Bethel. Despite going 2-1 on the week and being what I feel is the second best team in the MIAC, I decided to take them out of the poll and give someone else a chance for right now.

St. Norbert (Previously 24)
The Green Knights slipped past me. Plain and simple. I was moving so many parts around (see above) along with considering so many other teams outside my ballot, I simply lost track of St. Norbert. Their win over Beloit didn’t do anything for me (they should be Beloit by 26!), though their win over Knox certainly raised my eyebrow (only scoring 56 points – thirty less than against Beloit – only winning by 3 to a one-win squad). I had not planned to removed St. Norbert from my Top 25, but in my back and forth thinking about Northwestern and with other squads I thought deserved to be in there, SNC simply fell off my ballot and I didn’t really notice it until writing this blog. Probably a mistake I will have to fix next week.

* – teams I have seen in person this season
^ – teams I have saw in person last season

Previous Ballots

Week 5
Week 4
Week 2
Week 1
Preseason

So there you have it. I am still keeping up with my removal of at least three teams from my Top 25, and shuffling teams around quite a bit. However, this week felt a little less stressful. That or I have gotten so used to the hours of work and hair pulling that it didn’t bother me as much this week. I am leaning towards that second thought.

I have also been knocking on the door of a full ballot blow-up and am kind of shocked I didn’t force it in the last few weeks. This week will be revealing if that kind of shake-up is needed in the near future.

Dave’s Top 25 Ballot: Week 4

Posted on by

(Please forgive the lack of links and items like bolded words and such, like normal. Having trouble with formatting this week.)

Well then. Three weeks of results should make it far easier to determine who are the best 25 teams in the country. Right? HA! Wrong.

Don’t get me wrong. I really didn’t have high expectations going into this week’s voting. I knew it was going to be tough. Last week, I had read somewhere there was 90+ schools in Division III men’s basketball with 2 or fewer losses, I think. So in preparation to vote and for this blog, I double-checked that number on the NCAA stats website: it’s actually 64 teams (through games played 1/3/16) – women have 78 teams, in case you were curious. At least the number wasn’t 90+, but 64 teams with two or fewer losses is still a lot of programs.

No. Before you think I am going to consider every one of those 2-loss teams for my ballot, that isn’t possible.

Yes. I also didn’t preclude teams who have lost more than two games. Heck, there were several sitting on my previous ballot.

But just in the simplest of thinking: there are more than 70 teams out of 415 (technically) that one could at least bring up based on their record and say, “why not so-and-so” when talking about the Top 25. A ballot that only represents the top six-percent of the division… and more than 17-percent of the division could make some kind of argument to be included. In early January.

Staggering.

The result? I nearly blew the entire ballot up. If I actually had more time in my day on Monday (I had a basketball game to attend for a client), I would have done it. Instead, I did the next best thing: a major shake-up.

For those who know me and these blogs over the last few years, you know I am good for at least one “blow-up” vote a season. Usually two. While I resorted to a major shake-up this time around, I am already looking to probably having to blow it up in the next week or two and start nearly from scratch.

I won’t bore you with why and how I blow up a ballot in this blog, but the major shake-up took shape when I got into the section between 5-10 as I voted. I had a team moving down into the group, I had teams at the bottom of the ballot who really needed to move up and probably deserved more than a handful of spots. I also have had a large drop off in my feelings of who really is the best seventh, eighth, ninth, etc. best team in the country the entire season. As a result, I decided to get bold with a few teams and make some major moves northward. I also decided to just punt on a team I had ranked number ten previously. And I got aggressive both up and down with other squads. The moving around forced me to look outside of not only my Top 25 but who had been on my short-list but off the ballot in the previous weeks and search for other candidates.

Between the information we get from D3hoops.com, the information I had already had on the side to keep track of, and the information I went searching for on Sunday night and Monday… I probably had nearly 70 teams I considered in some manner this week. Some were easily dismissed. Others didn’t make it and are gnawing at me. Some made the ballot, despite reservations I have even sitting here now.

But I wasn’t alone. I spoke to several voters this week (most of whom reached out to me) and to say there is almost no consensus would be an understatement. Besides Augustana being the number one team in the country and maybe having the same feeling for who are the top four or five teams (not necessarily the same order), no one has even a remotely similar ballot. Everyone has valid arguments and opinions. No one feels absolutely sure they are right in their read on almost any of the teams.

There are many teams who are not living up to any expectations anyone had in the preseason or early part of the season. There are many other teams who are playing so far above preseason expectations it is hard to know if things are for real.

There is so much parity and so many good teams it is really hard to nail down who are the best 25 in the country right now.

Before we look at this week’s ballot, here is my ballot from mid-December. I wasn’t able to get my blog out due to football and other commitments that week, but you do need to know where I was coming from heading into this week.

1 – Augustana
2 – Whitworth
3 – Hope
4 – Amherst
5 – St. Thomas
6 – Ohio Wesleyan
7 – Elmhurst
8 – Marietta
9 – Christopher Newport
10 – Mount Union
11 – Babson
12 – Benedictine
13 – Chicago
14 – John Carroll
15 – Brooklyn
16 – Stockton
17 – Oswego State
18 – Salisbury
19 – Virginia Wesleyan
20 – Texas Lutheran
21 – East Texas Baptist
22 – Susquehanna
23 – Northwestern( Minn.)
24 – St. Norbert
25 – Wooster

That was Week 3, December 13th’s ballot.

Just to give you a head’s up, I did take a peak at early SOS numbers as best calculated my our friend —. I realize these numbers are very raw due to the fact a lot of teams haven’t played half their schedule and conference action hasn’t had an influence (good or bad), but they gave me an idea of what teams had in their out-of-conference scheduling (despite some conference games mixed in, but I can read between the lines with that). You can find the info here: . I did use it to break up some teams in a group, but usually the SOS number was dramatically different.

Here is this week’s ballot:

1 – Augustana^
I realize the Augies have had a few close games, but you have to expect that for a team who has a major target on their back for many reasons. They are getting into CCIW play where certainly every team and every coach knows each squad extremely well… and NO team has gone undefeated since 1973! Will Augustana go unfazed through conference action – NO! I expect Augustana to take a loss or two before we get to the NCAA tournament, but that doesn’t mean I still don’t think they are the best team in the country.

2 – Whitworth* (Unchanged)
I got the chance to see the Pirates in action at the D3hoops.com Classic (called both of their games, actually) – I liked what I saw. I realize Whitworth hasn’t played the most difficult out of conference (their SOS is/was below .500), but they have talent and depth at nearly every single position on the court. It starts with Kenny Love who isn’t even the team’s leading scorer (see Christian Jurlina AND George Valle), but he is the one that makes this team go and draws the most attention. But it goes beyond Love, Jurlina, and Valley… add in Staudacher, Sears, Roach, Baker, Bishop… the list just gets longer of the guys they can bring in – even freshman – who make an impact. This might be one of the best teams Whitworth has had and it is unheralded right now because it is so hard to judge them in the Pacific Northwest. Their game against Calvin was tight as expected (at least I didn’t think it was going to be an easy game and I have a few coaches who will testify me telling them that in Vegas) and their game against UMHB took them out of their comfort zone. I wasn’t surprised in the least. I am comfortable with the Pirates at number two.

3 – Hope (Unchanged)
Not sure what to add here. They got it done with four wins over the holiday break. They are the team to beat not only in the MIAA, but probably the Great Lakes Region – though that region is stacked at the top this year.

4 – St. Thomas* (Up 1)
Not much to add to what I have been talking about over the last few blogs. The Tommies didn’t have a very busy holiday break with just two games. They do now get into the conference tilt which isn’t as challenging schedule wise as in the past, but will still be daunting with Bethel, St. John’s, St. Olaf, Carleton, and Augsburg all with good first-half(ish) records and significant wins. The MIAC may be emerging as one of the top five in the country; it certainly is underrated in terms of talent and success.

5 – Ohio Wesleyan (Up 1)
Another team who simply got the job done despite only playing two games. The Battling Bishops have a lot of talent, but now things get interesting as they re-enter conference play and Hiram enters the mix having beaten OWU already this season. Ohio Wesleyan needs to dominate a conference that can dominate for me to feel really comfortable with them at number five.

6 – Elmhurst (Up 1)
I might have the Blue Jays a little high or at least not behind the only team they have lost to (more on that in a minute), but that one loss is starting to look better and better as time goes on. I already had high expectations for Elmhurst and they are living up to them with this start to the season. They are beating all kinds of different teams in different ways showing they can score a lot of points (125 vs. Buena Vista) or shut down teams (50 points for Albion). The top of the CCIW this season with Elmhurst and Augustana is damn good.

7 – Amherst^ (Down 3)
I would have dropped the Lord Jeffs further, but there was only so far for them to fall. A bit brutal a treatment for taking their first loss of the season, but it wasn’t a good loss. Losing to Rhoades on the road isn’t what people expect from Amherst. It reminds me of last year’s holiday road trip that saw the Lord Jeffs blow a 15 points lead to Goucher (winning in OT after a buzzer beater forced the extra five minutes) and other stumbles during that trip. Plenty has been made of Dave Hixon’s scheduling on the D3boards which starts out slow with easier opponents and builds up, but the Lord Jeffs seem to be struggling at the holiday break before conference play often. I’m nervous thinking we assume Hixon has this under control when in reality we are just blinded by the words “Lord Jeff” and the purple colors. Eastern Connecticut, Williams, and Wesleyan in the next three (all at home, mind you) will tell us plenty. (By the way, I used the Lord Jeffs name as much as I could because it could be going away.)

8 – Susquehanna^ (Up 14)
Hello Crusaders! Susquehanna cracked into my Top 25 at #22 last ballot, but I didn’t get a chance to say anything about them. Maybe that was good as the holiday break has changed my mind. The Crusaders have probably the toughest out-of-conference schedule in years (at least, that’s what Frank Marcinek said on Hoopsville Sunday) and they are unbeaten. Those wins include hot-starting Lycoming, then-22nd-ranked Catholic, then-15th-ranked Trinity (Conn., 79-74), and Johns Hopkins in a mixure of home, away, and neutral games. They then reentered conference play with a dominating win over Moravian. Susquehanna came on late last season and the coaches in the conference picked them to be second (behind Catholic). It looks like the rest of us are just catching on that Susquehanna is maybe for real. (Here is another school I tried using their mascot name as much as possible because it is actually going away.)

9 – Benedictine (Up 3)
I didn’t think I would be voting for the Eagles in my top ten this season. My mentality was similar to my approaches to teams like Albertus Magnus in years past. I just thought there was a ceiling I couldn’t put them through. I also expected Benedictine to lost at least once in their non-conference, CCIW-only set of five games even if they had beaten Elmhurst to garner national attention in the first place. They haven’t. That has warranted at least one voter I know to put Benedictine number two on his ballot. I’m not buying that high (and my vote probably offsets enough to place them number six overall). My only concern and reason for pulling in the reigns more than others is the fact that when you truly look at their non-conference schedule… they are beating CCIW teams who would consider themselves “average” by their own standards: Illinois Wesleyan (6-6), Wheaton (4-8), North Central (8-4), Carthage (7-5). Yes, the North Central win is starting to look better after the Cardinals started 2-3 on the season. And yes, Benedictine did blow the socks off last year’s NACC champs, Aurora, a few weeks ago. All that adds up to a significant win (Elmhurst) and two solid wins (North Central and Aurora) and pushes the Eagles through the ceiling I had self-imposed. But can Benedictine, a team coaches expected to battle but finish second in the league, go undefeated? That seems like a tall order, so how they deal with a loss or two in conference will be the real story of the season.

10 – John Carroll (Up 7)
Ok, I have now bought in with the Blue Streaks. You might remember in previous ballots I stated I was “leery how high I put the Blue Streak” because of what we hadn’t seen in awhile from John Carroll – early season success. So higher they streak on my ballot, buoyed by the fact they went 3-0 during the holidays including a solid win over conference-foe Marietta and a pretty solid Brockport State squad while in Florida. But now comes a dogged conference schedule and what should be a three-horse race at the top. The OAC should be fun to watch this season.

11 – Christopher Newport (Down 2)
A loss to Scranton, even if it is on your home floor, isn’t the worst thing in the world. I am not punishing the Captains for the loss by dropping them two spots as much as I was opening a spot to get the undefeated teams who were behind them ahead of them now that CNU is no longer undefeated themselves. You will notice later my opinion on Scranton and thus why the loss isn’t horrible for Christopher Newport. However, they have to be careful in the Capital Athletic Conference ahead for them are teams itching to pull off another upset (and the team they beat): PSU-Harrisburg (#21 Salisbury), Wesley (#2 VWC), Mary Washington (#18 VWC), York (Stevenson), and St. Mary’s (Salisbury) in the next five games.

12 – Marietta (Down 4)
A second loss, needing room for undefeated teams behind them in the previous poll, and one of the losses being to John Carroll is why the Pioneers fell four spots on my poll. Normally a loss to a team I had previously ranked behind them and now rank ahead of them wouldn’t have resulted in four spots, but it did this time. Marietta is still a very dangerous team and after watching St. Vincent in person at the D3hoops.com Classic last week, I can better appreciate why Marietta lost that game. But like John Carroll, they re-enter OAC play with a large target (being regular season champs last season) and have some interesting challenges ahead in Ohio Northern, Capital, and Otterbein before seeing Mount Union for the first time this season.

13 – Chicago^ (Unchanged)
I think the Maroons are starting to click as a team, though I am sure others would disagree. Chicago has been a little streaky this season, but the two losses in the first three games of the season are well behind them and they are starting to take control of games including a 74-57 win over Illinois Wesleyan. We finally get to see the UAA start conference play and that always starts with Wash U for Chicago. This time it’s in St. Louis before then traveling to Carnegie Mellon and Case Western Reserve. Nothing is easy in the UAA, but Chicago has a chance to take control of the conference early if they stay focused.

14 –Mount Union (Down 4)
Just saying that I have three OAC teams in my Top 15 is a little surreal, but I like the Purple Raiders this season and not selling easily. Each of their losses look good in some capacity: William Paterson (despite internal problems seem to be recovering), North Central (as mentioned before are now off and running), and Colby (who is off to a quiet 9-1 start). And while good losses are fine and dandy, you need to get some good wins as well and the Mount has those in Chicago, Capital, and Ohio Northern. Their re-entry to OAC action is a little easier than the other three: Heidelberg, Wilmington, and Muskingum. But, after that they have John Carroll and Marietta back-to-back in mid-January – a perfect “mid-season” litmus test for the Purple Raiders.

15 – Brooklyn (Unchanged)
Not much to say here for the Bulldogs. They only played one game over the holidays and beat a very good in-conference opponent in Staten Island. I look forward to seeing them work through the rest of the conference schedule before I make a reevaluation of Brooklyn.

16 – Stockton^ (Unchanged)
Depending on who you ask, Stockton is either really good or overrated. I can get different opinions from just about everyone I talk to or ask. I don’t know if Stockton is as good as advertised or not. I know I lose favor in them last year at this point after seeing them in person. I will luckily get a chance to see how things are going since they play league-leading New Jersey City and vastly-improved over the break Ramapo in their next two games.

17 – Oswego State (Unchanged)
In a strange scheduling occurrence… the Lakers didn’t play a single game in the three weeks between Top 25 votes. So, not much I can add now. They are in a very difficult SUNYAC from what the start of the season indicates. I will be interested to see how Oswego recovers from the long lay-off and reenters conference action.

18 – WPI^ (Unranked)
I finally decided to buy in with the Engineers this week. Why now? Because they still haven’t lost. Ok, they lost once to Fitchburg State. Say what?! Well, to be honest there are a lot of teams who have lost a game that makes no sense. WPI has actually beaten some good teams this season and in a year where everyone is beating everyone, it seems, the Engineers only have one blemish. Can’t say I saw that coming. So… I’m on board now.

19 – Trine (Unranked)
The MIAA might have the most interesting race in the country this year. At the beginning of the season in my conversation with Hope head coach Greg Mitchell on Hoopsville, he talked about how Alma was a team to watch out for along with obviously Calvin. We also talked about Trine. We also talked about Trine. The Thunder are off to a 10-1 mark with that one blemish coming to Ohio Wesleyan. They have beaten some good teams along the way as well. Trine has made the MIAA a four-team race and that’s not too bad for that conference. Big game coming up against an underrated Calvin squad (by their standards), but no matter the outcome I am looking forward to watching this race.

20 – Texas Lutheran (Unchanged)
It was a mixed bag of a holiday time frame for the Bulldogs. They ended up going 3-2, but against some pretty good teams. Loss to IWU, beat Alma, lost to Texas-Tyler, and then beat East Texas Baptist (again) and Southwestern. I wasn’t sure what to do with Texas Lutheran until I remember some of the conversations I have had with coaches out of Texas and read comments of those who have seen TLU in action. I am willing to keep TLU where they are here at 20th and see what happens next. The Bulldogs have a big weekend looming with hot-starting Austin in the second game of two. Going to keep a close eye on that one.

21 – Northwestern (Minn.) (Up 2)
Not much to add here for right now. The Eagles won five straight during the holiday poll break after losing to a good Bethel squad. There wasn’t any world-beating teams on the list, but it showed they can shake off a tough loss. Their win over UW-Stout was something I can better appreciate after seeing the Blue Devils in action in Las Vegas (good, solid team; no where close to what their 0-16 WIAC record last season indicated). Then the Eagles lost to North Central on Saturday. Not what I was expecting and I probably gave them a little too much credit by moving them up two spots (more on that … shortly). However before that loss, Northwestern wrapped up a two-loss 2015 year. That’s pretty darn impressive.

22 – Bethel (Unranked)
The MIAC is just ridiculous these days. Bethel is certainly one of those reasons. The Royals are 8-1 with a pretty good out-of-conference schedule and an SOS that was higher than I expected. Their one loss: St. John’s. And that is what reveals the challenge of this poll especially this year and most particularly in this part of the poll. I could have easily put the 9-1 Johnnies in this spot instead of Bethel especially with their win over the Royals as an example. I also could have easily put Bethel ahead of Northwestern also thanks to the Royals win over the Eagles. But the Johnnies have a couple of non-Division III games that make it hard to appreciate those wins, they also have a loss to Carleton who beat St. John’s and St. Thomas in back-to-back games. So, I don’t think the Johnnies should be ranked ahead of Bethel and they were left out for now. But here is a conference (MIAC) that St. Thomas has won ten straight times, but we are talking about three teams who probably deserve to be in the Top 25. By the way, I am not sure why I left Bethel behind Northwestern – that one might have slipped past me.

23 – Scranton^ (Unranked)
There are some Royals fans in the Poconos who might have just spit-taked their coffee. I have been a bit critical of Scranton, and the Landmark Conference, for a few years now. It doesn’t help that I know the conference very, very well and thus I see the teams a lot and all season. I just haven’t been buying into Scranton in recent years as they yo-yoed in and out of my ballot. Too many times I find inconsistencies and it frustrates me for a program I think could be so much better. This year, Susquehanna and Catholic were predicted to be better. Susquehanna has been; Catholic has not (the defense seems to be getting worse). Out of that has come the Royals. For most of the season, Scranton hasn’t had any significant wins until they beat Christopher Newport. That gave me a good reason to dive into the team. I still don’t see anything that blows me away outside of the win over CNU. However, their SOS was better than expected, they do have some good wins, and they haven’t taken the losses I have gotten used to that don’t make any sense (though, they did lose to Hobart). I will see the Royals later this week… so let’s see if this ranking holds.

24 – St. Norbert (Unchanged)
The Green Knights have been dominating teams once again this season. They would have moved up the poll, but they lost to Alma right at before voting and that gave me pause. It isn’t that Alma isn’t a good team; they are. I was just surprised coming off of an easy win over Anderson the night before AND it was at home. Now let’s see how St. Norbert does re-entering conference action.

25 – Pacific Lutheran* (Unranked)
I didn’t know what to expect when I got to Las Vegas knowing I was going to see the Lutes. Actually, I am pretty sure I was going to be disappointed. I was going to see a team who clearly is overrated beating some easy non-Division III opponents. That’s not what I saw. Pacific Lutheran has a lot of size inside, good talent on the outside, and they don’t quit. This is a team that barely lost to Chicago earlier this season, handled a fired-up UMHB squad, and then held off a very tough squad in UW-Stout to prepare for (five-man substitution patterns that don’t hold at any point in a half). I was impressed. With two players scoring 18 points per game and a third in double-digits, there are plenty of dangerous weapons to help put the Northwest Conference on it’s head. Whitman is going to have a say eventually in this battle to play Whitworth for the title as well.

Dropped Out:

Babson^ (Previously 10)
I just can’t stay on board with a team that lost the only game it played in three weeks and has won just 60-percent of the games they have played. I know the Beavers lost a bit from last year’s final four, but they had a lot of good talent coming back and got other help especially in the transfer system. It resulted in a 5-0 start to the season, but since then the team has lost four of their last five. Yes, they are playing good… very good teams, but if you are deserving of being a Top 25 team you have do more than play those teams, you have to beat most of those teams. In reality, Babson is 1-4 in the tougher half of it’s schedule. That doesn’t deserve to be ranked even if they had been 10th previously.

Salisbury* (Previously 18)
After a terrific start at 5-0 including two big wins at the Hoopsville National Invitational Classic, the Sea Gulls are 3-3 in the last six. Ouch. Salisbury would have stayed in the Top 25 if they hadn’t lost to St. Mary’s. Yeah, the Seahawks. The squad that for years dominated the Mid-Atlantic Region and got to Salem in the Elite Eight in 2013 after years of knocking on the door. This seasons St. Mary’s team isn’t bad, but if Salisbury is a Top 25 squad they should beat SMC … especially when it’s on their own home court! Salisbury is going to be dangerous especially if they get into the tournament, but they need to shake off their funk and get back on track.

Virginia Wesleyan^ (Previously 19)
I never thought I would not have a single ODAC team ranked in my Top 25 in this day in age, but here we are. The Marlins are 7-4 after losing two in a row in the middle of Decemeber. It doesn’t seem like the usual reloading of talent as gone as smoothly for Dave Macedo’s squad this season. I can’t put my finger on it, but the Marlins just aren’t consistent this season. They may still make the NCAA tournament because they are at the top of a somewhat-down ODAC this season, but I think expectations of another good season because of the ability for them to have talent-in-waiting on the bench is probably unjustified this season.

East Texas Baptist (Previously 21)
The Tigers drop out because they have lost two in a row. According to my last ballot, losing to TLU was expected. Then they lost to Concordia (Texas) – guh. The Tigers are still a good squad, but with so many teams worthy of being in the Top 25 conversation, losing two in a row when ranked that low on the ballot just gives me an easy excuse to replace them. I am interested to see how ETBU recovers and heads into conference action.

Wooster (Previously 25)
This was probably one ballot too late, but I am now done with the Scots. This is clearly not their season, by their normal standards. That isn’t to say Wooster still isn’t very good. They just aren’t Top 25 good right now. The loss to Salisbury was just the excuse I needed to finally convince myself to pull the trigger. Wooster is still going to be very much involved in the very interesting NCAC race and may make the NCAA tournament, but I just don’t think they are one of the 25 best in the country like they usually are. Just an off year.

* – Teams I have seen in person this season
^ – Teams I have seen in person in the last year

Something of note: I think I have turned over half of my ballot in the last two or three polls and probably two-thirds of it so far this season. It is hard to really figure out who are the best in the country when so many schools can beat so many this season.

So, I guess I am looking for more wins. That would be nice for another reason – I won’t feel like I have to write as much in each blog.