Tag Archives: St. Norbert

Dave’s Top 25 ballot: Week 6

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While I knew going in to voting this week I was going to need to decide a new number one team, I thought that would be the only major challenge… I was wrong. Not only did I have to have a long debate about number one, but I had to reconsider parts of the middle of the ballot and pretty much blow up the lower third. Why? Too many questions and not enough answers – the theme for the entire season.

As I finished the ballot and took a look it to make sure I was comfortable, I couldn’t help but consider the fact there are a lot of teams in the upper half that are bound to take a loss that warrants the thought they are too high on my ballot. I also couldn’t help but think there are teams outside of my ballot that have just as strong an argument to be a Top 25 team as those on the ballot. There just isn’t enough room for starters, but there also aren’t enough answers to feel comfortable with the ballot.

I will warn you now, there are some interesting and maybe surprising moves on this ballot. I got tired of the uneasy feeling I had with some teams, I took a gamble with some other teams, and I moved a number of teams down despite not losing games this week (all for different reasons).

Now a quick reminder to those who may read this blog: I am just one voter who is willing to make his ballot public strictly for conversational reasons. I am more than willing to listen to other opinions (I do so every week behind the scenes) and give you my reasons for my decisions. All I ask is that you respect the single point of view of twenty-five that make up the overall D3hoops.com Top 25 and have a civic conversation regarding the ballot.

Before revealing this week’s ballot, here is a reminder of last week’s:

1 – Washington U.
2 – St. Thomas
3 – Augustana
4 – UW-Whitewater
5 – WPI
6 – Babson
7 – Randolph-Macon
8 – Emory
9 – Dickinson
10 – Wooster
11 – Albertus Magnus
12 – Virginia Wesleyan
13 – Ohio Wesleyan
14 – Marietta
15 – Richard Stockton
16 – Chicago
17 – Eastern Connecticut
18 – Husson
19 – Amherst
20 – Scranton
21 – North Central
22 – Illinois Wesleyan
23 – Claremont-Mudd-Scripps
24 – St. Olaf
25 – Franklin & Marshall

And now to this week’s ballot and some explanations:

1 – St. Thomas (Up 1)
I debated long and hard about making the Tommies my number one team. This was my fifth new number one team after all and just because St. Thomas was slotted number two last week didn’t necessitate moving up automatically. I debated long and hard between the Tommies and four other teams including Wash U., but eventually decided the Tommies were my best pick. I am clearly higher on St. Thomas than others, but besides their lone loss to Gustavus Adolphus the Tommies have been handling the teams they should and even beating good teams on their schedule (i.e. UW-Stevens Point). The next challenge for St. Thomas will be Bethel, who is reeling a little bit right now, later this week.

2 – Augustana (Up 1)

3 – UW-Whitewater (Up 1)

4 – Washington U. (Down 3)
I thought about leaving the Bears number one, moving them down a single spot, or moving them down further. If they had barely lost to Chicago on the road, I think leaving them number one in a year with plenty of questions and no one really stepping up to be the top dog would have made sense (same debate I had with UW-Whitewater in the first regular season poll). However, Wash U. go trounced by Chicago in the Bears first game in three weeks. That is a long lay-off, but a lousy way to show a team is ready for its rival to start the important conference schedule. However, because it was their first game back since December 20, I didn’t move the Bears further down the poll. I didn’t expect Wash U. to go undefeated this season; I just didn’t expect them to get blown out.

5 – Babson (Up 1)

6 – Emory (Up 2)
I moved the Eagles up two spots and ahead of Randolph-Macon for one reason: they got the job done at a place they can’t seem to win at – Rochester. It doesn’t matter how good or bad the Yellow Jackets are, Emory never wins in Rochester. They did so this week and in dominating fashion.

7 – Randolph-Macon (Unchanged)

8 – WPI (Down 3)
The Engineers lost to the other Engineers in the NEWMAC who was chosen along with WPI as the top pick by the coaches in the preseason (MIT), so no it wasn’t surprising to see the result and thus why WPI only falls one spot. The battle for the top of the NEWMAC is going to be very good this year with WPI and MIT already the early favorites and Babson already showing they are going to be there as well. Plus you have to deal with Springfield, Emerson, and others. The challenge for WPI is the fact they will play Babson later this week as a result they fall behind the Beavers because at this point I think Babson is the better team. (They also fall behind Randolph-Macon in reflection of the fact the Yellow Jackets beat the Engineers at the Hoopsville Classic earlier this season).

9 – Dickinson (Unchanged)

10 – North Central (Ill.) (Up 11)
Surprise #1. I got to a point with North Central this week that I thought I was underselling them at 21 and I didn’t see a slot I thought they fit in between teams ahead of them. I moved them around a lot (along with other teams) before deciding to get bold and make a big move up. After all, this team has lost only one game (to Dickinson ranked ahead of them) and while they narrowly defeated Wheaton this past week, they are on top of the CCIW. Now, this is one of those moves that makes me wonder if I will regret it later especially with Augustana AND Elmhurst to play this week alone, but I figured I would be making this move this week or potentially next week so why hold back now.

11 – Wooster (Down 1)
Surprise #1. This is the start of five teams that moved down a spot despite not losing mainly because I needed to find a slot for North Central. This does not mean I think less of these teams after the week of games that they had. It is more a reflection of what I think of North Central. This also can be used as an example of why a team can win games and fall in a poll – because it isn’t about them it is about another team(s). In this case, Wooster beat below .500 teams as they should have, but I think North Central is playing better basketball.

12 – Albertus Magnus (Down 1)
Yes… North Central. Also… the Falcons are on the ceiling in terms of my ballot. Unless they do something big in the NCAA tournament, they aren’t going to rise any further on my ballot – though they are certainly open to falling if they take a loss in the GNAC.

13 – Virginia Wesleyan (Down 1)

14 – Ohio Wesleyan (Down 1)

15 – Marietta (Down 1)

16 – Chicago (Unchanged)
Surprise #3. I pretty much figured when the Maroons beat Wash U. I would be moving Chicago up my poll. Then I looked at the ballot and realized I didn’t know where to move them! Chicago already has three losses on the season and I already didn’t think they were better than fifteen other teams in the first place. Sure, the blow out win over Wash U at home was huge. I just couldn’t figure out if they were all of the sudden better than Marietta, Ohio Wesleyan, Virginia Wesleyan, Albertus Magnus, or Wooster with that one result. Sure, North Central moved ahead of Chicago with a less stellar result(s) this week, but that move was based on what else North Central had done this season and the fact I was underselling them. I think Chicago is well placed at sixteen right now and we will wait to see how they do against Emory this week (with Case Western Reserve looming).

17 – Franklin & Marshall (Up 8)
Surprise #4. Here’s another move I would be crazy if I didn’t admit scares me. The Diplomats are playing well above expectations this season (including their own) and I have said they are a loss away from maybe having the season unravel. However, they got by a very difficult test in Washington College this week and with the amount of turmoil ahead of them (now behind them) in the poll, I figured this move was warranted.

18 – St. Olaf (Up 6)
There is something very quiet about St. Olaf that makes me wonder if they are far better than advertised. As with F&M, I moved the Oles up ahead of what I think is turmoil on my ballot. I also moved them from ahead of the Diplomats to behind because of their lone loss to Bethel (versus no losses for F&M). I honestly am not sure what I think of St. Olaf, but they continue to get the job done. St. Thomas, though, is on the horizon long with a rematch with Bethel in back to back games later this month.

19 – Richard Stockton (Down 4)
I don’t like how the Osprey are playing basketball right now. I think the loss of their point guard earlier this season is really causing problems. They are having issues staying composed on the floor and they don’t seem to be on the same page. You listen to those in the NJAC and they will tell you that the conference is one of the toughest to play in. I won’t disagree with that sentiment, but not because I think the top of the conference is really good and the bottom isn’t that far off. Rather I think the top of the conference is just good and the bottom is average at best. Thus when I see Stockton barely get past a New Jersey City squad I think has been overrated for a while (and is currently 3-9) and only put up 27 points against that Gothic Knights squad in the first half… my gut feeling of Stockton not playing well is only reinforced. (And Richard Stockton losses to Ramapo 65-63 as I finished writing this blog – but after all ballots were tabulated for Week 6.)

20 – St. Norbert (Unranked)
It is ironic that last season I was a bit proponent for the Green Knights, yet I seemed to have them ranked higher than many others throughout the year. This year, I am the one late to jumping on board with St. Norbert’s season. They lost five seniors and four starters from last year’s squad that was pretty impressive. I didn’t think there was any way they would be in the Top 25 conversation this year. However, SNC has one loss this season to John Carroll and has been handling their opponents especially in conference. I just can’t keep pushing them to the side as they continue to prove they are a pretty talented team.

21 – Chapman (Unranked)
I knew when I left Claremont-Mudd-Scripps in my ballot last week with Chapman to play… I was going to making a move this week. That games was the test I was waiting for to determine if Panthers were as good as their undefeated mark indicated (especially considering non-Division III teams they have played so far this season). Chapman got the job done and so they are now on my ballot.

22 – UW-Stevens Point (Unranked)
I have basically tried to keep from buying in with the Pointers this season. I know how much they last from last year, I know they weren’t going to be as good, and I know they were going to “rebuild” (by UWSP terms) this year. However, Stevens Point has been playing pretty well. They have beaten some good squads and trounced UW-Platteville this week. And their three losses have been to very good teams by a total of ten points! Maybe I am breaking my own rule here, but at the same time maybe I should stop ignoring UWSP.

23 – Husson (Down 5)
It would have been easy to take the Eagles out of my Top 25 after they lost promptly after getting national attention. However, I think Husson is far better than people give them credit and they lost to a pretty talented Colby squad in a very high-scoring affair. Also, with Scranton still on my ballot (as you will see), I would have had to remove the Royals as well from the Top 25 if I removed Husson. I am willing to still consider the Eagles a Top 25 team if they roll through the NAC the rest of the season.

24 – Scranton (Down 4)
Despite winning three games this week, I have the same uneasy feeling with the Royals I had with Richard Stockton (and others) – the difference is they are still winning. Scranton is walking a high-wire and they are dangerously close to falling off. Since they lost to Husson, Scranton had to use overtime to beat King’s, barely beat Wilkes, struggled against Drew (not shocking), had a Susquehanna squad nearly trip them up, and barely survived against Goucher (3-11). In those five games, Scranton has won by a total of twelve points. Scranton should be dominating most of these games if they really are that good. I actually debated taking Scranton out of my Top 25 despite still winning, but the fact they are still winning is why they stay in … for now.

25 – Illinois Wesleyan (Down 3)
Some feel the Titans are overrated. I get that. I have thought that myself. However, they are also still winning. They beat Wheaton and Carthage this week to bounce back from the loss to North Central and while I still moved them down the poll, which kept them from falling out (like Scranton). I just didn’t like where I had Illinois Wesleyan previously and teams I decided to move in to my ballot felt like stronger teams, so they had to move downward.

Dropped out:

Eastern Connecticut (Previously #17)
I understand they only lost to Amherst by a few points at home, but Amherst is the reason the Warriors are off my ballot. As you will see, so is Amherst and if I am taking Amherst off my ballot I can’t keep Eastern Connecticut on it if they lost to the Lord Jeffs in the same week. Also while I was unable to watch the game live, reports from those who did and from what I read on the game doesn’t paint a pretty picture for how either team played. I also felt there were teams off my ballot who were playing better basketball and thus Eastern Connecticut falls off the poll.

Amherst (Previously #19)
Yes, I removed the Lord Jeffs from my ballot. I just haven’t had a good feeling about Amherst since mid-December and was probably giving them the benefit of the doubt. Certainly the win over Eastern Connecticut is a feather in the cap as it where, but as I described above with the Warriors it doesn’t sound like it was that well played a game. Amherst isn’t playing terrific basketball right now and while I understand it was a rivalry game the loss to Williams (who had lost to Trinity earlier in the week) was the deciding factor.

Claremont-Mudd-Scripps (Previously #23)
I like CMS as a team and I have since the preseason, but I would be foolish if I didn’t tell you it was a debate between CMS, Chapman, and others on who made my preseason Top 25 ballot. Now CMS has lost UW-Stevens Point and Chapman in the last four games – both squads are new to my ballot this week – so it isn’t like CMS isn’t playing good competition… I just don’t have room for them right now. They have some good games ahead of them, so they could make a reappearance if they keep winning.

Previous ballot blogs:
Season Recap – Week 5

Dave’s Top 25 ballot – Week 12

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After the last few weeks and with conference schedules wrapping up and tournaments beginning, I was pretty much expecting my weekly Top 25 efforts to once again be challenging. So I was pleasantly surprised when watching the week and weekend unfold and seeing very little carnage on the men’s side. Of the 25 teams, only seven took losses and all were single losses. It gave me a chance to take a deep breath before what will surely be plenty of carnage for Week 12’s ballot.

It seemed to be a birthday present to me of which I am very grateful!

With the lack of carnage also meant for the first time in weeks I had very few possibilities to bring in a new team to my ballot. That did make it challenging in terms of who to pick from at least ten teams, but it also made selecting who would fall out of the poll a bit easier.

So, here is my Top 25, which you will notice features ten teams that didn’t move up or down and features 24 teams I had in last week’s poll. As we get started, here is a reminder of my rather frustrating ballot last week.

1 – UW-Stevens Point (Unchanged)

2 – Cabrini (Unchanged)

3 – Illinois Wesleyan (Unchanged)

4 – Wash U. (Unchanged)

5 – Wooster (Unchanged)

6 – UW-Whitewater (Unchanged)

7 – Amherst (Unchanged)

8 – St. Norbert (Unchanged)

9 – Williams (Up 1)

10 – Wesley (Up 1)

11 – WPI (Up 1)

12 – Randolph-Macon (Up 3)
The Yellow Jackets continue to play very good basketball in one of the toughest conference in the country. They had a big rivalry game against Hampden-Sydney and it turned out to be no contest. I think that alone told me a lot about RMC since in any rivalry game and no matter the records going in, things happen.

13 – St. Thomas (Down 4)
A single loss isn’t usually the death nail for a team, but the loss to St. John’s marked a season sweep of the Tommies by the Johnnies. Do you know the last time that happen?! Ok, it’s the second time in three years, but if the Tommies are that good it should never have happened! I am not sure if I have been overrated with the Tommies, but the MIAC tournament will give all of us a better sense of just how good or not St. Thomas really is.

14 – Texas-Dallas (Unchanged)
The Comets take a loss and don’t move in my rankings. I know, even I had to look long and hard at that for a while. The loss was to Mary Hardin-Baylor who have now rattled off eight wins in a row and could cause plenty of problems in the ASC tournament (heard that script before?), so I wasn’t going to knock the Comets too hard for that in the first place. However, I also couldn’t justifying moving them behind teams further down the poll. Many pollsters talk about what I call the pillow effect: a team only falls as far as those below them allows. In some cases, if there are enough losses happening further down the poll, a team can only fall so far. In this case, there are teams behind Texas-Dallas I don’t think are 14th in the country, limiting their fall to… zero.

15 – Mary Washington (Up 3)
This may be a steep rise for the Eagles who seemed in disarray and are only back to their winning ways because they played the bottom of the CAC in the last few weeks, but I also didn’t have a good reason to move teams behind them ahead of them. So consider this filling in the empty spot at 15 instead of my indication that I think everything is okay in Fredericksburg, Virginia.

16 – Albertus Magnus (Up 3)
Another example of maybe too big a leap in my Top 25. I think the Falcons are a good team, but I am not convinced they are world beaters and will go far in the NCAA tournament (they are welcome to prove me wrong). They are moving up, though, thanks to Purchase State losing. Despite a head-to-head win over Albertus Magnus over Purchase State, I had the Falcons behind because of a bad loss in conference. Now Purchase has picked up a similar resume blemish and thus AMC moves ahead.

17 – Centre (Up 4)
Similar to Mary Washington, I was going to move the Colonels up the rankings anyway, they just moved a little further north then I intended. These kind of moves and my concern they are too big a leap further explains why I didn’t feel comfortable moving Texas-Dallas down and opening up the 14-hole.

18 – Whitworth (Down 2)
Losing to Lewis and Clark on the road in overtime probably deserved a bigger drop, but there is only so far I can drop the Pirates before I run into teams I think Whitworth would beat on any court. The loss doesn’t bode well for Whitworth’s post-season aspirations of playing deep into March, but it could also be the spark that finally ignites a team I think has been playing below-par all season.

19 – Purchase State (Down 2)
Again… I can only drop Purchase State so far before there are teams I don’t think they deserve to be behind on the ballot. Their loss this past week to St. Joseph’s (Long Island) is unforgiveable and is not going to help them when it comes down to possible hosting opportunities in the NCAA tournament, but maybe they can use the loss as the motivation they need to focus on the task at hand.

(Side note: Does anyone else find it interesting that Albertus Magnus and Purchase State both lost to St. Joseph’s teams in their conference? AMC to St. Joe’s of Main and Purchase to St. Joe’s of Long Island. Fascinating.)

20 – Hope (Unranked)
There are plenty of teams I thought about bringing on to my ballot with better records, but Hope is playing better than most, I think. The Flying Dutchmen have won 11 in a row and are blowing teams out in their conference. They have a season sweep of Calvin and are very highly ranked by the NCAA regional (and national) committee. I have honestly been waiting for the shoe (pun intended) to drop thus why I have been leery about putting Hope on my ballot. However, they appear to be getting stronger and could end up being a surprise in the NCAA tournament after their season started 1-4 and 3-5!

21 – Brockport State (Down 8)
Yes, the Golden Eagles went 2-1 with just that lone loss to a good Oswego State squad, but they are playing without their best player who may be out for the reason of the season with a knee injury. John Ivy is a tremendous player, but his status is known (I have heard nothing official from anyone) and I have to work under the assumption he is out for the year. That changes this squad completely and I don’t think they are nearly as good as they were with him in the line-up. Brockport will make the NCAA 7tournament, but without Ivy they are not a Top 15 team.

22 – Staten Island (Up 1)

23 – Scranton (Up 1)

24 – Rose-Hulman (Down 2)
The Engineers eight-game winning streak came to an end at the hands of Mount St. Joseph’s (what’s with the St. Joe’s-named teams?!), but I don’t think that is a horrible loss for Rose-Hulman. I am willing to give them the benefit of the doubt since they had the conference regular season wrapped up and were going to host the conference semifinals and championship no matter the outcome (they had swept Defiance this season).

25 – Richard Stockton (Unchanged)

Dropped out:

Ohio Wesleyan (Previously 20)
I don’t know what to make of the Battling Bishops or for that matter the NCAC. After DePauw looked great, they fell apart. After Wittenberg looked great, they have struggled. Now Ohio Wesleyan looked great and they seem to be unraveling. Mike DeWitt’s team is 3-3 in the last six games. I just don’t think they are playing like a Top 25 team.

Other ballots:
Week 11
Week 10
Week 9
Week 8
Week 7
Week 6
Week 5
Week 3
Week 1

Dave’s Top 25 ballot: Week 11

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I have no confidence in about 99% of the Division III teams, right now. None.

I talked to a few of the Top 25 voters this week as either I reached out to them to get their take on a few teams or they reached out to me and the one thing I quickly figured out: this is getting harder and harder. That may not mean something to non-voters or general Division III fans, but trust me when I say that this time of the season usually means less work on the Top 25 because teams have proven themselves and are ready for the last few weeks of the season.

Not this year.

I have almost no faith in my picks anymore. I have no confidence that where I have a team slotted is actually where they should be. I have a lot of confidence that I have some teams too high on my ballot and as a result I find myself stuck in no-man’s-land when dealing with losses even if a host of teams behind a team that has lost didn’t lose (see Cabrini).

I joked with one pollster that I want to submit my ballot with UW-Stevens Point number one… and leave the rest of the ballot blank. Not that no other team is a Top 25 squad, but because none of the teams I have in my Top 25 really seem like they deserve their ranking – they all may be too high!

And Cabrini really had me debating. Not necessarily because they lost, but because of who was behind them and how that would impact where they sat in the rankings. I actually changed my mind at least four times and came up with four different solutions… not liking any of them. I ended up staying pat with last week in hopes the coming week can give some better clarity.

As I begin, here is a reminder of last week’s ballot.

1 – UW-Stevens Point (Unchanged)

2 – Cabrini (Unchanged)
This will shock people and I really don’t know what to say. I could explain it six ways to Sunday and still not necessarily agree with it myself. It came down to a few things: was the loss to Baptist Bible bad? Yes. Was the last two weeks for Cabrini strange? Yes. Are they getting healthy again? Seem to be. Am I comfortable bringing other teams up to the number-two spot? No. Aaron Walton-Moss appears to be headed back from his injury and to paraphrase Mike Show from Baptist Bible, he is still a very dangerous player even on just one leg. This team does have a weak conference and their SOS shows that, but a weak schedule hasn’t stopped the Cavs from being minutes away from a national championship two years ago and making a challenging run to the elite eight last season. I am willing to trust my gut and Coach Markus Kahn on this one, but could I regret this decision in a week? Yes.

3 – Illinois Wesleyan (Unchanged)
Yeah, the Titans were knocking on the door of number-two thanks to Cabrini’s loss, but I just don’t feel they are the second-best team in the country… or even third-best. They have three-losses all in conference and could even lose the regular-season title to quirky Wheaton (Ill.) should they lose to the Thunder this week. Can I really be comfortable putting the Titans that far up my ballot if they may not even be the one-seed in their own conference tournament to a team I have on the outside-looking-in of my ballot? Yikes.
(EDIT: I mistakenly stated IWU has three-losses in conference, they indeed have two. I was thinking if they lost to Wheaton, they would pick up a third loss and incorrectly added that to their total. Furthermore, I should state that saying “they would lose the regular-season title” I meant they would lose the #1 seed. My good friend Bob Quillman pointed out my mistakes and I am grateful.)

4 – Wash U. (Unchanged)
More of the same with the Bears of Washington University. I have stated in past weeks I am nervous with this team this far up in ballot and I know I am not the only one thinking that. Again, had I moved Cabrini down it probably would have resulted in Wash U. moving up to number three and that simply makes me cringe. I like how the Bears are playing and they are rolling away with the UAA title, but I am not sure their conference standing is a sign of how good the Bears are or proves that the rest of the UAA took a step back (or for some more than one) this season.

5 – Wooster (Unchanged)
I seriously considered moving Wooster down this week not for what they did on the court, but for what the rest of the conference did – or didn’t do. The Scots now have a two-game lead in a conference that doesn’t have anyone really stepping up at this point in the season. If ever I would to demote a team for what the rest of the conference was doing, this would be it. However, I also thought it wouldn’t be fair to Wooster… for now.

6 – UW-Whitewater (Unchanged)

7 – Amherst (Unchanged)

8 – St. Norbert (Unchanged)

9 – St. Thomas (Unchanged)

10 – Williams (Unchanged)

11 – Wesley (Unchanged)

12 – WPI (Unchanged)

13 – Brockport State (Up 2)

14 – Texas-Dallas (Up 2)
Here is about the point in the ballot I am ready to throw things around and scream bloody murder… and maybe it actually starts with Brockport State as well. These teams seem too high up. In fact, they probably are too high up. Texas-Dallas is having a good year, but honestly their only resume highlight is that they are cruising in their conference. They also probably have to win the conference tournament to make the NCAA tournament thanks to the new 22-game schedule the ASC has implemented (though the Comets are #2 in the South Regional Rankings in Week 1). The second half of my ballot is nuts.

15 – Randolph-Macon (Down 1)
This may surprise people since the Yellow Jackets lost to Eastern Mennonite this past week, but to me I considered a couple of things. This was RMC’s first loss since losing a close game at Cabrini on December 18, Eastern Mennonite actually has some solid wins this season, the game was on the road, and the ODAC has probably more parity from top to bottom this season then in a long time (ten of the twelve teams have above-.500 records right now). Coach Nathan Davis has proven he can get his team clicking late in the season, so I can’t fault a single loss in the last fifteen games. One other factor, there was enough turmoil in the lower half of my Top 25 ballot that there was only so far for the Yellow Jackets to fall.

16 – Whitworth (Up 2)
Guh… I am pretty sure this is too high for the Bucs. I like how Whitworth plays and they are well coached, but my concerns coming out of Las Vegas have not changed. They are short on the bench, especially on the inside, and they sometimes lack the fire power they need to put teams away. Those concerns had me keeping Whitworth low on my ballot ever since. Now they are sneaking up and I am not thrilled. Sure, I am not surprised George Fox took them to the wire, but that is a game Whitworth needed to make a statement with.

17 – Purchase State (Up 3)

18 – Mary Washington (Down 5)
Frederick, the Eagles have landed! Mary Washington has lost three straight games in conference action and each of those losses I have a problem with. Salisbury: sure the Seagulls are tough, but if the Eagles are that good they win. Christopher Newport: a game that Mary Washington needed to use as a way to forget about Salisbury and stay in great position on top of the conference. Wesley: certainly not a surprise that the Wolverines won, but Mary Washington didn’t even look like a factor in the game. Maybe Mary Washington has peaked too early and if that is the case it is a shame because Mary Washington had been having one of the best seasons in program history. Oh, and they only feel five spots because I couldn’t imagine teams behind them ahead of them.

19 – Albertus Magnus (Up 3)

20 – Ohio Wesleyan (Down 3)
I will admit, along with Mary Washington, I may have had the Battling Bishops up too high. Just the single loss to Wabash may not have resulted in dropping three spots, but Ohio Wesleyan is now 2-2 in the last four and if you look at their overtime win, it was to 5-18 Alleghany. Maybe the NCAC race was too good to be true.

21 – Centre (Down 2)

22 – Rose-Hulman (Unranked)
Believe it or not, the Engineers have won 16 of their last 17 games and seem to be playing the best basketball when it counts the most. They also have a potential All-American in Julian Strickland leading the way with more than 25 points a game and leading in almost every other category as well. Rose-Hulman had a disappointing finish to last season, but this is an experienced squad who may be a dark horse depending on the set-up in the NCAA tournament.

23 – Staten Island (Up 2)

24 – Scranton (Unranked)
Against my better judgment, I placed the Royals into my ballot. I know they have only lost three games this season and their SOS is surprisingly high, but if there is one conference I know very, very well… it is the Landmark and nothing impresses me about this conference this season. Juniata has disappointed, Catholic has not been as good as expected, and the rest of the conference is playing at about an “ok” level. Certainly there is more parity this season in the conference, but that doesn’t mean the teams are good. Welcome to my Top 25 Royals, just don’t let me regret the decision (I am already regretting being a Top 25 voter this season).

25 – Richard Stockton (Unranked)
WHAT AM I DOING?! I am getting desperate, I think, to find teams that seem to fit in the Top 25. I have been watching the Ospreys for a while, but just have not been impressed with their resume, the NJAC, or anything else for that matter. However, they have won 20 games and are now at least tied for the top of the conference. I just have a feeling I am grasping at straws and happen to grab Richard Stockton’s from the other fifteen potential candidates.

Dropped Out:

Messiah (Previously 21)
Considering who I put into my Top 25, maybe pulling the Falcons out was too rash. However, they lost their second game to Stevenson (this time at home) and now all of their losses are conference losses. Messiah has had the chance several times this year to put their stamp on the conference, but can’t seem to put teams away and may have more match-up problems than I realized when watching them last month. Time will tell if this was a rash decision.

Bowdoin (Previously 23)
I really like how the Polar Bears have played this season, but the loss to Tufts coupled with the fact it was their second loss in three games makes me concerned the Polar Bears are on thin ice. Could they have peaked too early? They can prove myself and others wrong or right by how they perform in the NESCAC tournament which starts this weekend.

Dubuque (Previously 24)
I should have seen this coming. The only other time I placed Dubuque in my Top 25, they promptly lost. This time they lost both games (Loras and Central) and now probably won’t make the NCAA tournament unless they win their conference. I wanted to route for the underdog here, but they are making it hard to believe they can meet the challenge.

Other ballots:
Week 10
Week 9
Week 8
Week 7
Week 6
Week 5
Week 3
Week 1

Dave’s Top 25 ballot: Week 10

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To be honest, this week’s Top 25 ballot was a pain in the a$$. It wasn’t exactly carnage throughout, but the losses that did pile up caused me to have teams rise into spots in the poll I was just not comfortable with. I certainly could have left teams where they were and had others jump over them, but there wasn’t many arguments for teams behind to jump ahead. It caused for a long 24 hours of constantly plugging away, diving into data, and trying to listen to either my head or my gut… or ignore both.

So I want to publicly thank the following for making the Week 10 Top 25 a pain in the a$$: WPI and Wesley primarily. Couldn’t you guys take care of business? WPI, dropping one game to giant-killer Emerson or to a solid unit in Babson, but both?! Wesley, your performance against York (Pa.) was anything but inspired. It didn’t occur to you that you have to play every game?

Ok, tongue-in-cheek moment over with… those two teams alone caused plenty of chaos with my ballot, but it wasn’t the only challenge I faced. Heck, 24 voters had to reconsider who we thought was the top team in the country and I am sure everyone had a different point of view in how they made that determination. I actually thought about it for five days (thanks in part to UWSP losing on a Wednesday and both teams not playing the rest of the week).

What ended up happening this week was interesting. I made some difficult decisions, I followed by head in some spots and gut in others, and I also punted a few teams and introduced some teams I had been watching for months but didn’t feel deserved to be on my ballot. All in all it sets up for another crazy week and I am not sure I won’t be cursing out a few more teams next week.

As we get started, here is a reminder of last week’s ballot… and on we go:

1 – UW-Stevens Point (Unchanged)
I thought long and hard about this and it came down to two things: did I really think the Pointers would get through WIAC play unscathed and did I really think they could go into Whitewater and not lose. First item: no. I was actually pretty surprised that UWSP had gotten this far into the season without losing a game in conference. They have been playing better and better and had been taking care of business like it was their jobs. That gets me to the second item: no. I knew UWW would be ready for UWSP and considering the game was in Whitewater I knew weeks ago there was a very real chance the Pointers would lose. The game goes to overtime and the spread is five points. UWSP ends up being the second-t0-last undefeated team in Division III (see below) and they lost a game I pretty much expected they may lose, so I couldn’t really drop them from the top spot.

2 – Cabrini (Unchanged)
As for why I didn’t change number-one votes, that argument is probably better here with Cabrini. When I thought about the UW-Whitewater game I took into consideration whether I thought Cabrini would have won that same game. The answer was actually pretty simple: no. Considering the game was in Whitewater and Cabrini would have played the game either without or with a much hobbled Aaron Walton-Moss, I cannot say with any confidence Cabrini would have won that game, either. So if I can’t say they would have won that game, I can’t then move them ahead of UW-Stevens Point. The other challenge is the fact Cabrini ended up playing no games last week thanks to three postponements including one everyone was looking forward to seeing. The game against Wesley on Monday would have helped voters gauge how good Cabrini really was at this point in the season especially with an injured Walton-Moss. However, weather got in the way of that game a second time (and pretty much won’t be made up) and then got in the way twice of Cabrini’s game with Immaculata (power problems on Cabrini’s campus). Now the challenge for the Cavaliers is the fact they have to play four games in six days this week three of which will be on the road with back-to-back games on Wednesday and Thursday. Despite the competition not being that challenging, I will be impressed if Cabrini gets through this week unscathed… though Mother Nature may have another postponement looming for the Cavs: a major nor’easter is being forecast for their game against … wait for it … Immaculata. (Shaking my head.)

3 – Illinois Wesleyan (Up 1)

4 – Wash U (Up 1)
This is one of those teams I am not very comfortable with this high, but not sure I could default by moving other teams ahead of them – though I nearly did with UW-Whitewater. I was reluctant with the Bears earlier this season and kept them low and I may have ignored that feeling and went with the data a bit too much… we shall see.

5 – Wooster (Up 1)

6 – UW-Whitewater (Up 2)
After beating UW-Stevens Point, I nearly jumped the Warhawks up to fifth or fourth and even considered a move to third. However, the fact they had to have overtime to beat the Pointers at home gave me pause. That fact isn’t a bad thing, but it wasn’t the defining argument I needed to make such a bold move. Had the game been at Stevens Point, I would have felt differently. Maybe the Warhawks should be higher, but I had my reasons for them being behind IWU, Wash U., and Wooster before the week began and the win over UW-Stevens Point didn’t change that opinion for me.

7 – Amherst (Up 2)

8 – St. Norbert (Up 2)
Here is another team I am not comfortable with in the Top 10. You know I think the Green Knights are a sleeper (despite their ranking) and depending on how the NCAA tournament gets bracketed could have a break-through post-season, but that doesn’t mean I think they are the eighth best team in the country. However, I need to put some team in this slot and I didn’t have an argument for anyone behind them to jump them. St. Norbert is steamrolling their way through the conference and right now that is the biggest determining factor for me. That have sometimes struggled in their conference, but they are taking care of business this year and doing so impressively. One person pointed out their loss to UW-Whitewater probably makes them at best the third-best team in the WIAC. I agree… and thus they are third on the list compared to those teams.

9 – St. Thomas (Up 2)

10 – Williams (Up 2)

11 – Wesley (Down 4)
I won’t repeat my tongue-and-cheek comment above, but wow did the Wolverines play completely uninspired basketball against now four-win York (Pa.) on Thursday night. I realize the game was delayed, but 48 points on 1-15 shooting late in the game is bad… just bad. I watched most of the last half and it just was bad. Wesley probably would have moved further down my ballot except for two major factors: they recovered to beat Christopher Newport on Saturday and the number of losses and adjustments below this point in the poll caused a bit of a pillow to break their fall. That being said, Wesley has got to learn to play better on the road because their NCAA tournament hopes will ride on it: they aren’t getting a home game at any point in the tournament.

12 – WPI (Down 9)
Emerson has now proven they can beat Top 5 teams. First it was then-number one Amherst and now then-number three WPI. But that should have been the wake-up call. Instead, the Engineers then lost to Babson two days later. Yes, Babson is a very good team this year and it was on the road, but the home loss to Emerson should have at least had WPI ready for Babson, instead they take their second loss in a row. As with Wesley, WPI would have fallen even further down my ballot except they also benefited from the pillow-effect.

13 – Mary Washington (Down 1)
The Eagles almost put St. Mary’s on life-support with their win earlier in the week, but followed it up with a loss to Salisbury at home by ten. Talk about another team apparently not ready for their opponent. Mary Washington has one of, if not the best team in program history, but the target on their back is very large. Salisbury is a good team despite their record, so I wasn’t shocked by the loss. However, the Eagles have to realize at this point in the season every game matters.

14 – Randolph-Macon (Up 3)

15 – Brockport State (Down 1)

16 – Texas-Dallas (Up 4)

17 – Ohio Wesleyan (Down 2)

18 – Whitworth (Up 3)

19 – Centre (Up 2)

20 – Purchase State (Unranked)
Here is the first of several teams I have been holding out of my Top 25 and make an appearance this week. The Panthers continue to play well and beat anyone in front of them. In fact, they only have one loss at it was on the road against Albertus Magnus. Their perceived SOS numbers are not that bad and they will probably be ranked number-one in the first regional rankings. I like what Coach Charney has put together at Purchase and there is no reason, anymore, they shouldn’t be in my Top 25.

21 – Messiah (Down 5)
Since going undefeated into mid-January, the Falcons have stumbled in places they shouldn’t be stumbling and struggling on the road. Messiah is a dangerous team, but the loss to Lycoming is inexcusable – not because Lyco isn’t a challenging team, but because if you are as good as I know Messiah to be… that is a game you put away. Big rematch with a struggling Stevenson squad looking to jump-start their season looms on Wednesday… that is going to be a major factor for my ballot next week.

22 – Albertus Magnus (Unranked)
Here is the second team I have been holding out on. I will be blunt: the loss to St. Joseph’s (Maine) is a nasty blemish on their record, but a lot of teams in my Top 25 have some questionable blemishes as well. The Falcons are once again heading down the road of maybe hosting the first weekend of the NCAA tournament and they have to take advantage of that opportunity. I think they have the capabilities to make the second weekend, but results like those against St. Joe’s and close games like that against Anna Maria this week make me nervous this team is just smoke and mirrors – thus why it has taken me this long to put them on my ballot.

23 – Bowdoin (Down 5)
Probably a bit of a harsh demotion for the Polar Bears for their loss to Middlebury, but I had trouble slotting them in any higher. I am certainly not faulting the team for how they lost to Middlebury, but I am faulting them for not beating the Panthers. Middlebury is not the fearsome team of the last few years and if Bowdoin is really that good a squad, that game should not have come down to a last-second three-pointer to tie it and then an unfortunate timeout call.

24 – Dubuque (Unranked)
For the second time this year, I am putting the Spartans into my Top 25 ballot. The simple fact is, no matter who they have played or the strength (or lack of) of their conference, Dubuque is 20-1. You have to be doing something right to get to this point in the season and only have one loss.

25 – Staten Island (Unranked)
Here is the final team I have been holding out on. Just like Purchase State and Albertus Magnus, I am not sure just how good Staten Island is. They are playing well with their last loss coming in the third game of the season – that’s 19 straight wins. The Dolphins could be a sleeper and will probably get a chance to host games in the NCAA tournament, but they may have to be ready to play on the road to prove anything.

Dropped out:

Virginia Wesleyan (Previously 19)
The yo-yo the Marlins had been doing for a few weeks finally broke. The loss at home against Eastern Mennonite was finally the last straw for me. I kept buying in to a team that in year’s past I was reluctant about. Now they are a few games out of first place in their conference and I can’t keep a five-loss team in the Top 25 when I don’t even have teams ahead of them in the conference on my ballot (except for Randolph-Macon). The Marlins could still be a dangerous squad come March, but they have to start putting some things together and get used to playing on the road.

Eastern Connecticut (Previously 23)
I may have bought into the Warriors a bit too much. Their loss early in the week against Wesleyan disappointed me. If they were as good as I thought the information and what I saw indicated, that isn’t even a game.

Oglethorpe (Previously 24)
As you know, I don’t treat a ranked team who losses to team ranked above them too harshly. However, the Stormy Petrels just didn’t have a lot of room to play with sitting 24th when they lost to Centre (season sweep). They got knocked a few spots like others would have, it just so happened that meant coming off my ballot.

Augustana (Previously 25)
As I have said, the Vikings probably shouldn’t have been in my Top 25 last week especially when I didn’t expect them to get through this past week unscathed. The loss to Illinois Wesleyan was an excuse I didn’t need to have, but to lose in such a non-competitive manner didn’t help the cause even if they did beat Carthage the next game.

Other ballots:
Week 9
Week 8
Week 7
Week 6
Week 5
Week 3
Week 1

Dave’s Top 25 ballot: Week 9

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The carnage continues… or at least those who I don’t expect to be losing games are still losing. It was another week of head-scratching games and plenty of questions who should be in the Top 25. It also raised questions about teams I was pretty confident in or had moved up recently due to other data. It has been a wacky year to be sure with plenty of good teams to consider. Usually by this point in time you have a pretty good handle on who should be in the Top 25 and have a few that are just on the outside. However, this year I think the bottom half is a pick ’em and there are a number of teams I am considering that aren’t on my ballot.

If you will remember, last week I blew up my ballot and practically started over. I am certainly not doing that this week, but three teams dropped out of my poll with two more giving me plenty of reasons to drop them as well. That meant three new teams with one making a significant jump when I looked at their data and what they had been doing recently. I would say I am looking forward to things settling down, but the way things are shaping up, the next three weeks are going to be anything but settled.

Here is my ballot for this week’s Top 25:

1 – UW-Stevens Point (Unchanged)

2 – Cabrini (Unchanged)
They got a good win against Gwynedd-Mercy and then rallied against an improved Rosemount squad while playing without one of the best players this season: Aaron Walton-Moss. Unfortunately, their game against Wesley for Monday was postponed due to weather for the second time this season and it is not looking good that it can be rescheduled. That will mean both teams and plenty of Division III fans will be missing out on one of the best games of the regular season.

3 – WPI (Up 1)

4 – Illinois Wesleyan (Up 1)

5 – Wash U. (Up 2)

6 – Wooster (Down 1)
The Scots are struggling it seems right now, though their only loss this past week was to a surging Ohio Wesleyan squad. I still think Wooster is one of the best teams in the country, but they have to get things tidied up in the coming weeks so they can position themselves well for the NCAA tournament.

7 – Wesley (Up 1)
The Wolverines are taking on all comers and winning the games they need to. Unfortunately, their game against Cabrini was once again postponed. I think they will do their best to find a date that works since it is an important game for SOS, vRRO, and other factors for both teams. However, even if they don’t get the game rescheduled, Wesley has a tough challenge ahead. They have Mary Washington, Christopher Newport, and St. Mary’s still to play in their final six conference games (only Mary Washington is on the road), so they have to take care of business in one of the toughest finishes in the country.

8 – UW-Whitewater (Up 1)
The Warhawks are quietly playing very, very good basketball. Wednesday’s rematch with UW-Stevens Point looms large, especially since coach Pat Miller will be off the bench due to surgery and former Pointer great Nick Bennett will coach UWW against his former team. I will have the chips and beer ready for Wednesday night!

9 – Amherst (Down 6)
Could the Lord Jeffs been looking ahead to their game against Bowdoin when they lost to Colby on Friday night? Who knows, but it was not a good result for a team who many claim is on track to another national title. As one Amherst alum put it to me, it was their worst loss in four years. Hats off to the Mules for pulling off the upset, but Amherst showed a lot of problems in that game and then scratched out a win against Bowdoin. I wonder if the Colby game (along with Emerson earlier this season) reveals more issues at Amherst then even their fans want to admit.

10 – St. Norbert (Unchanged)

11 – St. Thomas (Unchanged)

12 – Mary Washington (Unchanged)

13 – Williams (Up 1)

14 – Brockport State (Up 1)

15 – Ohio Wesleyan (Up 5)
I think the Battling Bishops are making a statement at the perfect time of the year. When I talked to coach Mike DeWitt at the beginning of the season, he indicated he didn’t think his team was the third best in the conference (as voted on by the coaches in the preseason poll) at the time. Now they look like they may be the best team in the conference. Big win over Wooster, but they have to stay focused with a struggling, but dangerous, Wittenberg squad next and DePauw in the last game of the season.

16 – Messiah (Unchanged)

17 – Randolph-Macon (Unranked)
Here come the Yellow Jackets once again, only this time they are on top of the ODAC. Remember how RMC made the NCAA tournament thanks in part to the best SOS numbers in the country and a ton (almost all) of their games featured those who had been regionally ranked (maybe one of the reasons the “once ranked, always ranked” rule was changed). Coach Nathan Davis once again has his team rolling and with wins over Virginia-Wesleyan, Hampden-Sydney, and Guilford in the last four games (did you see the Guilford score? 103-58!!!). The last time the Yellow-Jackets lost was on December 18 in a close game at Cabrini. I am not sure why I have been sleeping on this squad for so long.

18 – Bowdoin (Unchanged)
Unlike some voters, I don’t knock teams if they lose to teams I have ranked ahead of them. Isn’t that what my ranking indicates would happen? If #18 losses to then #3, then I shouldn’t demote #18 for the loss. Bowdoin dropped their game to Amherst, but by just three points. The Polar Bears are positioning themselves to host at least the opening weekend of the NCAA tournament and that could make them dangerous.

19 – Virginia Wesleyan (Up 4)
I am going to start calling the Marlins the Yo-Yos. They keep going up and down my ballot as a rough week is followed by a good week. A convincing win over Lynchburg was a very nice outcome and keeps them near the top with Hampden-Sydney and Guilford still to play in the regular season.

20 – Texas-Dallas (Down 3)
Welcome to my Top 25… and now lose. Not what I had hoped from the Comets thanks to a loss to Hardin-Simmons, but it is only their second loss of the season, so I am not willing to drop them completely from my ballot. They are controlling the ASC by three games and just need to play consistently good basketball the rest of the way.

21 – Whitworth (Up 4)

22 – Centre (Unranked)
I have been watching the Colonels for a few weeks as they have been playing better and better basketball, probably living up to some of the preseason expectations. Nine straight wins and an SOS that looks pretty solid has me jumping on the bandwagon. Of course as luck would have it, they have a game against Oglethorpe coming up on Friday. I know they beat the Stormy Petrels nearly two weeks ago, but that result will probably have no bearing on this game.

23 – Eastern Connecticut (Unranked)
Here is another team I have been watching for a few weeks. The Warriors have won eight of their nine games in 2014 (only loss to Amherst) and have a surprisingly good SOS number. They are in control of their own destiny in the Little East and probably on track to make a reappearance in the NCAA tournament.

24 – Oglethorpe (Down 5)
This drop is probably a bit steeper than I normally would have for a single loss in a week, but their loss to Birmingham-Southern put them in a tie for second place with BSC, two games behind Centre. Also, I was going to move them down and because they lost at home earlier this season to Centre, I had to move them somewhere behind the Colonels.

25 – Augustana (Down 12)
I seriously considered dropping the Vikings completely from my Top 25. They have lost three straight, albeit one of them to Wheaton (Ill.). However, the other two are to teams behind them in the CCIW and now Augustana finds itself two games back of the conference leaders two of those top dogs (Illinois Wesleyan and Carthage) to play in the next two games. If the Vikings don’t turn the ship around quickly, they could be out of the CCIW playoff race and thus out of consideration for the NCAA tournament.

Dropped out:

St. Mary’s (Md.) (Previously 21)
The newly revamped CAC has caused major problems for the Seahawks. Normally a loss to Salisbury late in the season wouldn’t be a big deal, but now SMC has five losses on the season with three of those losses coming to conference opponents. The Seahawks have Mary Washington, Christopher Newport, and Wesley in their final six games and cannot afford another loss if they still want to make the NCAA tournament. If SMC doesn’t win the automatic qualifier for the conference, that means they have taken at least one more loss in the conference tournament assuming they haven’t dropped at least one game against the previously mentioned three teams. The Seahawks are on very thin ice which could have a perennial favorite to make deep runs in the NCAA tournament watching 62 others teams play basketball.

DePauw (Previously 22)
The Tigers were surging until they apparently forgot they were playing Denison and Oberlin this past week. They barely got past Denison and then dropped their game against Oberlin. DePauw has proven they can beat Wittenberg and Wooster, but they have to play everyone well or they aren’t a Top 25 team.

Dickinson (Previously 24)
The Red Devils have found the worst time of the year to pick up conference losses. Their second in as many weeks was to Muhlenberg leaving them just a game ahead of McDaniel and Franklin & Marshall when they had been in control of the Centennial Conference. The conference is more competitive at the top than expected, but that may have more to do with Dickinson coming back to the group leaving the chance of an extra bid from this conference looking doubtful.

Other ballots:
Week 8
Week 7
Week 6
Week 5
Week 3
Week 1

* – SOS numbers are from information sent to me by our friend KnightSlappy (alias on the D3boards).