Quick Hits: Predicting the first-round scores

Posted on November 16, 2018 by Pat Coleman

The story goes, one day on a long ride to a playoff game at Thiel (which tells you how long ago this happened), Pat and Keith decided to pass the time by guessing not just the winner of each first-round playoff game, but the score. And there was born the expectations game: Do we expect a close game? A high-scoring game? A blowout? Does everyone agree on who will win? Those are the factors worth looking at.

Keith McMillan, Ryan Tipps, Pat Coleman, Adam Turer, Frank Rossi and Greg Thomas each take their guesses at scores for each first-round game. Plus, we have Logan Hansen’s odds to advance and at the bottom, a widget you can manipulate to get details on all 32 teams and compare teams head-to-head in a multitude of categories.

— Pat Coleman (d3photography.com photo)

Mary Hardin-Baylor bracket
Keith’s take: UMHB 34, Hardin-Simmons 10 Ryan’s take: UMHB 31, Hardin-Simmons 14 Pat’s take: UMHB 34, Hardin-Simmons 7	Adam’s take: UMHB 38, Hardin-Simmons 17 Frank’s take: UMHB 44, Hardin-Simmons 10 Greg’s take: UMHB 35, Hardin-Simmons 10
Hansen odds to advance: UMHB, 93.7% Consensus: Strong consensus for a Mary Hardin-Baylor win, of around five scores to two.
Keith’s take: Berry 34, Maryville 10 Ryan’s take: Berry 34, Maryville 13 Pat’s take: Berry 35, Maryville 10	Adam’s take: Berry 31, Maryville 13 Frank’s take: Berry 37, Maryville 30 Greg’s take: Berry 28, Maryville 20
Hansen odds to advance: Berry, 70.8% Consensus: The first meeting was 38-3 and the second meeting isn’t expected to be much different.
Keith’s take: St. John’s 56, Martin Luther 0 Ryan’s take: St. John’s 52, Martin Luther 7 Pat’s take: St. John’s 62, Martin Luther 8	Adam’s take: St. John’s 63, Martin Luther 0 Frank’s take: St. John’s 54, Martin Luther 7 Greg’s take: St. John’s 58, Martin Luther 7
Hansen odds to advance: St. John’s, 100.0% Consensus: St. John’s in a runaway.
Keith’s take: Whitworth 21, C-M-S 17 Ryan’s take: Whitworth 45, C-M-S 6 Pat’s take: Whitworth 24, C-M-S 6	Adam’s take: Whitworth 35, C-M-S 3 Frank’s take: Whitworth 49, C-M-S 14 Greg’s take: Whitworth 31, C-M-S 10
Hansen odds to advance: Whitworth, 92.1% Consensus: Wide range of scores by which Whitworth is expected to advance.

UW-Whitewater bracket
Keith’s take: UW-Whitewater 49, Eureka 6 Ryan’s take: UW-Whitewater 52, Eureka 10 Pat’s take: UW-Whitewater 58, Eureka 12	Adam’s take: UW-Whitewater 42, Eureka 6 Frank’s take: UW-Whitewater 41, Eureka 3 Greg’s take: UW-Whitewater 48, Eureka 7
Hansen odds to advance: UW-Whitewater, 99.9% Consensus: Whitewater by a lot.
Keith’s take: Trine 27, St. Norbert 17 Ryan’s take: St. Norbert 24, Trine 17 Pat’s take: Trine 42, St. Norbert 16	Adam’s take: St. Norbert 20, Trine 17 Frank’s take: Trine 37, St. Norbert 27 Greg’s take: Trine 28, St. Norbert 27
Hansen odds to advance: Trine, 70.5% Consensus: A split decision favoring Trine, but by varying margins.
Keith’s take: North Central 35, Hanover 14 Ryan’s take: North Central 48, Hanover 7 Pat’s take: North Central 51, Hanover 14	Adam’s take: North Central 56, Hanover 13 Frank’s take: North Central 47, Hanover 10 Greg’s take: North Central 40, Hanover 17
Hansen odds to advance: North Central, 98.3% Consensus: North Central advancing easily.
Keith’s take: Bethel 28, Wartburg 17 Ryan’s take: Bethel 31, Wartburg 23 Pat’s take: Wartburg 24, Bethel 13	Adam’s take: Bethel 28, Wartburg 17 Frank’s take: Wartburg 27, Bethel 24 Greg’s take: Wartburg 17, Bethel 14
Hansen odds to advance: Bethel, 67.2% Consensus: A pure 50-50 split decision which is likely headed for a recount.

Mount Union bracket
Keith’s take: Mount Union 49, Denison 21 Ryan’s take: Mount Union 63, Denison 7 Pat’s take: Mount Union 28, Denison 10	Adam’s take: Mount Union 49, Denison 20 Frank’s take: Mount Union 67, Denison 3 Greg’s take: Mount Union 42, Denison 14
Hansen odds to advance: Mount Union, 98.7% Consensus: Mount Union wins in a day which is a struggle for the Denison offense.
Keith’s take: Centre 28, W&J 27 Ryan’s take: Centre 38, W&J 31 Pat’s take: W&J 34, Centre 24	Adam’s take: Centre 31, W&J 24 Frank’s take: Centre 37, W&J 34 Greg’s take: Centre 28, W&J 24
Hansen odds to advance: Centre, 76.7% Consensus: Non-unanimous consensus that Centre wins one of the best games of the day.
Keith’s take: John Carroll 41, Randolph-Macon 17 Ryan’s take: John Carroll 49, Randolph-Macon 13 Pat’s take: John Carroll 42, Randolph-Macon 14	Adam’s take: John Carroll 42, Randolph-Macon 16 Frank’s take: John Carroll 40, Randolph-Macon 13 Greg’s take: John Carroll 35, Randolph-Macon 17
Hansen odds to advance: John Carroll, 85.4% Consensus: John Carroll winning easily.
Keith: Muhlenberg 23, Delaware Valley 20 Ryan: Muhlenberg 28, Delaware Valley 27 Pat: Muhlenberg 34, Delaware Valley 17	Adam: Muhlenberg 35, Delaware Valley 32 Frank: Muhlenberg 34, Delaware Valley 31 Greg: Muhlenberg 31, Delaware Valley 28
Hansen odds to advance: Muhlenberg, 56.0%, the lowest odds of any predicted winner. Consensus: Unanimous picks of road teams are rare, but note that five of the six pick margins of three or less.

Brockport bracket
Keith’s take: Brockport 35, Framingham St. 7 Ryan’s take: Brockport 49, Framingham St. 10 Pat’s take: Brockport 48, Framingham St. 10	Adam’s take: Brockport 38, Framingham St. 6 Frank’s take: Brockport 42, Framingham St. 10 Greg’s take: Brockport 42, Framingham St. 13
Hansen odds to advance: Brockport, 97.7% Consensus: Brockport moving on in the style of their choosing.
Keith’s take: Husson 10, RPI 9 Ryan’s take: RPI 23, Husson 21 Pat’s take: RPI 30, Husson 17	Adam’s take: RPI 24, Husson 20 Frank’s take: RPI 30, Husson 27 Greg’s take: RPI 20, Husson 10
Hansen odds to advance: RPI, 62.6% Consensus: RPI in a non-unanimous game that’s generally expected to be close.
Keith’s take: Frostburg St. 42, Western N.E. 14 Ryan’s take: Frostburg St. 42, Western N.E. 10 Pat’s take: Frostburg St. 45, Western N.E. 10	Adam’s take: Frostburg St. 45, Western N.E. 10 Frank’s take: Frostburg St. 44, Western N.E. 14 Greg’s take: Frostburg St. 38, Western N.E. 7
Hansen odds to advance: Frostburg State, 92.4% Consensus: Frostburg advancing with ease.
Keith’s take: Johns Hopkins 42, MIT 10 Ryan’s take: Johns Hopkins 45, MIT 7 Pat’s take: Johns Hopkins 45, MIT 16	Adam’s take: Johns Hopkins 43, MIT 14 Frank’s take: Johns Hopkins 35, MIT 17 Greg’s take: Johns Hopkins 38, MIT 10
Hansen odds to advance: Johns Hopkins, 96.8% Consensus: Johns Hopkins winning the brainiac bowl.

We invite you to add your predictions in the comments below, or tweet at us at @D3Keith, @NewsTipps, @d3football, @adamturer, @frankrossi and @wallywabash. Download the Around the Nation podcast on Mondays, where Pat and Keith review the picks and the highlights from the weekend’s playoff games.

Around the Nation Podcast 224: Prelude to a bunch of barnburners

Posted on November 16, 2018 by Pat Coleman

If the second round of the playoffs is your big turkey dinner with all the trimmings and every side you could want, then the first round is like that tray of vegetables and dip that you end up nibbling on while you wait. You can smell that turkey, the stuffings, the greens, the bread, but you have to wait.

We all have to wait. And now, not only do we have to wait, but we’re hungry.

Pat Coleman and Keith McMillan get you all lined up for Saturday’s first-round games, with the usual previews from Adam Turer and Frank Rossi. Plus, we hear one Division III quarterback remind us exactly why it’s so important to be able to run the ball in the playoffs, and we’ll talk with Mark Baltz, the Division III coordinator of officials. He tells us how officiating crews get selected and what type of evaluations they go through in the playoffs, not to mention how far they can travel. Plus, there’s a well-known former NFL player who is now a Division III football head coach, and Andrew DiDonato, the head coach at Grove City, has some advice for Earlham and all those who are trying to pick a football program up off the mat.

That and more in the D3football.com Around the Nation podcast. The D3football.com Around the Nation Podcast is a regular conversation between Pat Coleman and Keith McMillan and guests covering the wide range of Division III football.

Hit play, or subscribe to get this podcast on your mobile device.
Full episode:

D3football.com Around the Nation Podcast [ 59:59 ] Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

You can subscribe to the Around the Nation Podcast in Apple Podcasts, and many other places. You can also get this and any of our future Around the Nation podcasts automatically by subscribing to this RSS feed: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3football/?feed=podcast

Link: Our full NCAA playoff coverage
Mentioned in the podcast: Around the Nation on officials: It’s a thankless job, but these folks do it

Photo: Conor Davies running with the ball, trying to escape a Union safety. (RPI athletics photo)

Theme music: DJmentos.

Quick Hits: All the marbles

Posted on November 9, 2018 by Pat Coleman

This is it — the last regular-season weekend of the season. Maybe there’s snow on the ground where you are. Maybe you have a bitter rival coming to town and an epic tailgate with old friends — well, that’s what Quick Hits is like for us, too. Our regular crew is Keith McMillan, Ryan Tipps, Pat Coleman, Adam Turer and Frank Rossi. Our sixth spot each week goes to a guest prognosticator, and this week’s is Greg Thomas, our bracketology guru. He’ll be joining us through the playoffs as well, when Quick Hits shifts to predicting the final score of each game.
Photo: File photo from 2017 Shoes game, by Mick Neal, RPI athletics

— Pat Coleman

What will be the Week 11 Game of the Week?

Keith’s take: No. 25 Baldwin Wallace at No. 8 John Carroll/No. 9 St. Thomas at No. 22 Bethel. Both games match 8-1 teams; winners should be first at-large teams in field, losers’ seasons are over.	Ryan’s take: Thomas More at No. 4 St. John’s. After the way their season began, the Saints should be stoked they’re still so relevant to the conversation.	Pat’s take: No. 25 Baldwin Wallace at No. 8 John Carroll. Not only does it have all the playoff implications, but it’s a bona fide local rivalry as well.
Adam’s take: No. 9 St. Thomas at No. 22 Bethel. A rivalry game with a playoff berth at stake. Nothing better in Week 11.	Frank’s take: Salisbury at No. 6 Frostburg State. It’s the NJAC championship, and a Pool C bid could be taken from a bubble team if Salisbury wins. Hear more about it in today’s ATN Gameday Podcast.	Greg’s take: St. Thomas at Bethel. There are many good games, but this is a Top 25 showdown and a de facto elimination game between two teams that have the chops to make deep tournament runs.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to get upset?

Keith’s take: No. 6 Frostburg State. Not because the Bobcats are vulnerable so much as their Regents Cup opponent, 8-1 Salisbury, has had a great defense and running game all year.	Ryan’s take: No. 11 Berry. The Vikings may be sailing high right now, but Trinity has already shown this year that they can hold their own against tough competition.	Pat’s take: No. 24 Linfield. Wildcats’ scare last week might give Pacific something on tape to work with.
Adam’s take: No. 14 RPI. The resurgence of the Dutchmen has revitalized the Shoes rivalry. The Engineers have already clinched the LL title. Union could pull off the upset.	Frank’s take: No. 11 Berry. Berry has won the SAA already, so how the Vikings will approach the game at Trinity (Texas) will be interesting. Remember, Trinity challenged HSU earlier this season.	Greg’s take: No. 14 RPI. This game is actually pretty even on paper and I believe QH is contractually obligated to have one panelist pick RPI to be upset.

Which rivalry game will have the closest score?

Keith’s take: Dutchman Shoes. Almost all of them look like tight matchups. Union and RPI have already played one-point games; what’s one more?	Ryan’s take: The Secretaries Cup. Coast Guard’s resurgence this year has added some new life to the annual game against Merchant Marine — and could shake up the NEWMAC significantly.	Pat’s take: The Game. It wouldn’t be a “Game” between Randolph-Macon and Hampden-Sydney if it didn’t have some grinding and a little bitterness to boot.
Adam’s take: Monon Bell. The last two meetings were decided by a total of four points. DePauw will keep it close against No. 20 Wabash, trying to avoid its first losing season since 2013.	Frank’s take: Dutchman Shoes. RPI has won more with great defense in close games this year. I think this game lines up the same way.	Greg’s take: Cortaca Jug. This game looks like a low scoring grinder to me with a single point keeping the winner’s tournament hopes alive into Selection Sunday.

Which game are you following that nobody else on this panel is following?

Keith’s take: Alvernia at UNE. Both first-year programs have a win, but the Wolves haven’t scored since a garbage-time TD Oct. 13, and the Nor’Easters have been outscored by 117 since their win a week earlier.	Ryan’s take: N.C. Wesleyan at Maryville. Even with a loss, the Scots are in the playoffs, but if they do lose, it’s worth noting that Google Maps has them at 485 miles from Alliance, Ohio.	Pat’s take: Maine Maritime at Catholic. Just to hope that the alma mater doesn’t finish 0-10 this year. Go Cards!
Adam’s take: Shenandoah at Washington & Lee. I doubt anyone else is interested to see if my alma mater can win at least six games for the fourth straight year, a feat not accomplished since back when Garret LeRose and I were playing for the Generals.	Frank’s take: Coast Guard at Merchant Marine. More than 600 votes determined that I’d attend the Secretaries Cup Game between these two service academies. The Mariners even have a potential playoff bid still alive.	Greg’s take: Berry at Trinity (Texas).Berry has already clinched and Trinity isn’t in the playoff picture but a Berry loss here could significantly impact the playoff fortunes of Centre, Hardin-Simmons, and Muhlenberg. All the pieces matter.

Which team plays its way in or out of a home playoff game?

Keith’s take: North Central, in. Based on its result against Millikin, NCC has the widest range of outcomes; winnable home game in Round 1 or season over. I’ll guess the former.	Ryan’s take: Baldwin Wallace, out. I’m guessing that the matchup with JCU is someone’s game of the week, and I think BW will be out and JCU a shoo-in for Pool C after Saturday.	Pat’s take: St. Thomas, in. Despite the fact that Bethel looked better against St. John’s, the Royals don’t have Jackson Erdmann at QB to test Tommie DBs.
Adam’s take: No. 25 Baldwin Wallace. With a win over John Carroll, the Yellow Jackets would get in via Pool C and likely host a first round game. A loss to JCU not only means no home game, but likely no playoff appearance at all.	Frank’s take: Frostburg State. If the Bobcats lose, they could still win a Pool C bid but drop below fourth in the East because of a lack of regionally ranked opponents in their profile.	Greg’s take: John Carroll. The Streaks are a lock for an at-large bid and a home game with a win against Baldwin Wallace. A loss, and the Streaks are most likely done for 2018.

Pick a random Week 11 game and give it a trophy name.

Keith’s take: Tufts at Middlebury. Most of the season-ending games in the NESCAC are longstanding rivalries. This is what … the Tuftlebury Classic?	Ryan’s take: Olivet at Albion. The Six-Letter Shuffle — or — The MIAA Founder’s Faceoff.	Pat’s take: Alma at Finlandia, for the 445 Mile Marker Trophy. Finlandia is in the same state as almost everyone else in the MIAA, but it’s hideously far. Alma is its closest MIAA opponent, at 445 miles.
Adam’s take: Pacific at No. 24 Linfield. The Mass Hysteria Bowl. Dogs and cats living together! No human sacrifice, please. (Yes, I know Boxer the mascot isn’t technically a dog.)	Frank’s take: Alvernia at University of New England, for The 2018 Debut Supremacy Cup.	Greg’s take: Benedictine vs. Concordia-Chicago, for the I-88 Trophy.The Chicagoland rivals square off for a trophy which doesn’t actually exist yet as it is perpetually under construction.

We invite you to add your predictions in the comments below. Download the Around the Nation podcast on Fridays, where Pat and Keith review the Quick Hits that were prescient, and the Quick Misses that were terribly off base.