ATN Podcast 262: The one with two overtime games

That was a pretty great first round, not gonna lie. A Top 10 team nearly went down in the first round, one team came back from 18 down and another from 24, plus two games went to overtime — one of which went to three overtimes. Chapman and Linfield made the last game of the day a great capper to a thrilling day.

Pat and Keith run down all 16 of the first-round games, rank the second round games from least to most intriguing and hand out game balls. The player who returned a fumble for a touchdown, ran for a touchdown, and threw for a touchdown in overtime? Yeah, probably find him on that list. The guy who won the biggest quarterback duel of the day? OK, yes, him also. Plus we get you sounds from around the bracket.

All that and more in Podcast 262.

This edition of the Around the Nation podcast is sponsored by Gotta Have It: 3D Fan Foam Wall Signs for the D-III fan in your life.

Pat and Keith talk about it all in the latest Around the Nation Podcast. The Around the Nation Podcast is a regular conversation between Pat Coleman and Keith McMillan and guests covering the wide range of Division III football.

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Theme music: DJmentos. photos by David Malamut, Caleb Williams; Central athletics photo.


Quick Hits predicts the first round scores

The story goes, one day on a long ride to a playoff game at Thiel (which tells you how long ago this happened), Pat and Keith decided to pass the time by guessing not just the winner of each first-round playoff game, but the score. And there was born the expectations game: Do we expect a close game? A high-scoring game? A blowout? Does everyone agree on who will win? Those are the factors worth looking at.

Keith McMillan, Ryan Tipps, Pat Coleman, Adam Turer, Frank Rossi and Greg Thomas each take their guesses at scores for each first-round game.

— Pat Coleman (Linfield athletics photo)

Mary Hardin-Baylor bracket
Keith’s take: UMHB 56, Redlands 28
Ryan’s take: UMHB 31, Redlands 10
Pat’s take: UMHB 45, Redlands 24
Adam’s take: UMHB 23, Redlands 17
Frank’s take: UMHB 35, Redlands 17
Greg’s take: UMHB 30, Redlands 14
Consensus: Strong consensus here for a Cru win by two or three scores.
Keith’s take: Berry 35, Huntingdon 31
Ryan’s take: Berry 38, Huntingdon 34
Pat’s take: Berry 56, Huntingdon 17
Adam’s take: Berry 24, Huntingdon 21
Frank’s take: Huntingdon 31, Berry 30
Greg’s take: Berry 38, Huntingdon 13
Consensus: Not quite unanimous, but the panel favors Berry by varying margins.
Keith’s take: UW-Whitewater 42, Monmouth 21
Ryan’s take: UW-Whitewater 42, Monmouth 7
Pat’s take: UW-Whitewater 50, Monmouth 6
Adam’s take: UW-Whitewater 44, Monmouth 24
Frank’s take: UW-Whitewater 47, Monmouth 16
Greg’s take: UW-Whitewater 41, Monmouth 7
Consensus: Unanimous picks for a comfortable Warhawk victory.
Keith’s take: Wartburg 27, Hope 21
Ryan’s take: Wartburg 34, Hope 24
Pat’s take: Wartburg 38, Hope 28
Adam’s take: Wartburg 40, Hope 37
Frank’s take: Wartburg 27, Hope 21
Greg’s take: Wartburg 38, Hope 35
Consensus: It’s a sweep for Wartburg in a high scoring, one score game.
Wheaton bracket
Keith’s take: Wheaton 49, Martin Luther 0
Ryan’s take: Wheaton 50, Martin Luther 6
Pat’s take: Wheaton 62, Martin Luther 6
Adam’s take: Wheaton 50, Martin Luther 6
Frank’s take: Wheaton 56, Martin Luther 10
Greg’s take: Wheaton 56, Martin Luther 0
Consensus: The panel sees top-seeded Wheaton cruising into the second round.
Keith’s take: UW-Oshkosh 18, Central 14
Ryan’s take: Central 28, UW-Oshkosh 27
Pat’s take: UW-Oshkosh 30, Central 20
Adam’s take: UW-Oshkosh 28, Central 27
Frank’s take: UW-Oshkosh 31, Central 20
Greg’s take: UW-Oshkosh 28, Central 10
Consensus: It isn’t unanimous, but the Titans are the panel’s choice to advance by one or two scores.
Keith’s take: Linfield 35, Chapman 27
Ryan’s take: Linfield 31, Chapman 28
Pat’s take: Chapman 28, Linfield 27
Adam’s take: Linfield 19, Chapman 16
Frank’s take: Linfield 35, Chapman 27
Greg’s take: Chapman 24, Linfield 21
Consensus: Split decision for Linfield in what appears to be one of the closer games of the first round.
Keith’s take: St. John’s 38, Aurora 24
Ryan’s take: St. John’s 52, Aurora 13
Pat’s take: St. John’s 54, Aurora 35
Adam’s take: St. John’s 49, Aurora 35
Frank’s take: St. John’s 45, Aurora 14
Greg’s take: St. John’s 49, Aurora 21
Consensus: Aurora likely won’t get completely shut down, but St. John’s should be able to outscore the Spartans and win by multiple scores.
Salisbury bracket
Keith’s take: Salisbury 63, SUNY-Maritime 0
Ryan’s take: Salisbury 63, SUNY-Maritime 0
Pat’s take: Salisbury 68, SUNY-Maritime 0
Adam’s take: Salisbury 57, SUNY-Maritime 9
Frank’s take: Salisbury 55, SUNY-Maritime 10
Greg’s take: Salisbury 56, SUNY-Maritime 7
Consensus: Unanimous predictions here for an easy run to the second round for the Sea Gulls.
Keith’s take: Union 31, Case 21
Ryan’s take: Union 38, Case 17
Pat’s take: Union 24, Case 17
Adam’s take: Union 34, Case 24
Frank’s take: Union 31, Case 21
Greg’s take: Union 27, Case 17
Consensus: Clean sweep for the Dutchmen, generally by about 10 points.
Keith’s take: Muhlenberg 45, MIT 10
Ryan’s take: Muhlenberg 45, MIT 14
Pat’s take: Muhlenberg 56, MIT 6
Adam’s take: Muhlenberg 45, MIT 3
Frank’s take: Muhlenberg 42, MIT 14
Greg’s take: Muhlenberg 42, MIT 7
Consensus: The Mules should overwhelm the Engineers and trot on in to the second round.
Keith’s take: Brockport 22, W. New England 19
Ryan’s take: W. New England 24, Brockport 21
Pat’s take: Brockport 24, W. New England 13
Adam’s take: Brockport 20, W. New England 14
Frank’s take: W. New England 27, Brockport 20
Greg’s take: Brockport 26, W. New England 10
Consensus: Split decision for Brockport, but this game looks to be close.
Mount Union bracket
Keith’s take: Mount Union 63, Hanover 7
Ryan’s take: Mount Union 63, Hanover 3
Pat’s take: Mount Union 56, Hanover 10
Adam’s take: Mount Union 48, Hanover 24
Frank’s take: Mount Union 59, Hanover 7
Greg’s take: Mount Union 61, Hanover 10
Consensus: No surprise here, Mount Union is predicted to advance easily.
Keith’s take: North Central 40, Wabash 25
Ryan’s take: North Central 42, Wabash 10
Pat’s take: North Central 56, Wabash 10
Adam’s take: North Central 38, Wabash 14
Frank’s take: North Central 45, Wabash 21
Greg’s take: North Central 45, Wabash 21
Consensus: North Central’s top-ranked offense sweeps the board with a comfortable win over Wabash.
Keith’s take: Wesley 17, Framingham State 14
Ryan’s take: Wesley 28, Framingham State 20
Pat’s take: Wesley 41, Framingham State 24
Adam’s take: Wesley 21, Framingham State 20
Frank’s take: Wesley 21, Framingham State 20
Greg’s take: Wesley 24, Framingham State 21
Consensus: Wesley is the unanimous pick, but five of our panelists see a one score game.
Keith’s take: Del Val 28, Bridgewater 24
Ryan’s take: Del Val 41, Bridgewater 21
Pat’s take: Bridgewater 17, Del Val 15
Adam’s take: Bridgewater 21, Del Val 14
Frank’s take: Del Val 27, Bridgewater 24
Greg’s take: Del Val 17, Bridgewater 10
Consensus: Split decision for Delaware Valley, with the panel largely seeing a close game that could go either way.

We invite you to add your predictions in the comments below, or tweet at us at @D3Keith, @NewsTipps and @d3football. Download the Around the Nation podcast on Mondays, where Pat and Keith review the picks and the highlights from the weekend’s playoff games.


Quick Hits Week 9: In a New York state of mind

It is a huge weekend in the East region with a pair of high profile clashes amongst conference unbeatens. Our panel tackles the Empire 8 and Liberty League showdowns as well as letting you know which teams will help and hurt their regional ranking profiles before the NCAA releases the first rankings for 2019 on Wednesday.

Our regular crew is Keith McMillan, Ryan Tipps, Pat Coleman, Adam Turer, Frank Rossi and Greg Thomas.

— Greg Thomas

Which game is the Game of the Week?

Keith’s take: Brockport at No. 18 Cortland. Union-Ithaca works too, and there are 42,000+ folks who want the Cortaca rivals to remain atop the Empire 8 and Liberty League, respectively.
Ryan’s take: No. 25 Union at No. 8 Ithaca. The Bombers’ dynamic pass game against a Dutchman D that hasn’t given up more than two touchdowns in any game this season.
Pat Coleman
Pat’s take: Johns Hopkins at No. 6 Muhlenberg. The Blue Jays are mere points away from this being a battle of unbeatens, and might be able to play spoiler.
Adam Turer
Adam’s take: Johns Hopkins at Muhlenberg. The rivalry is the ultimate test to see if Muhlenberg has really become the team to beat in the Centennial. The Mules have looked the part thus far.
Frank Rossi
Frank’s take: No. 25 Union at No. 8 Ithaca. It’s win and you’re in — and has Pool C implications. I explain this on today’s ATN Friday Podcast.
Greg Thomas
Greg’s take: No. 25 Union at No. 8 Ithaca. The first ticket to the 2019 playoffs is getting punched by one of these two teams Saturday at Butterfield.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to get upset?

Keith’s take: No. 6 Muhlenberg. There are people around the Johns Hopkins program who think the Blue Jays are better this year than last, even though the results don’t show it. This would be the time to show it.
Ryan’s take: No. 18 Cortland.  I feel like Brockport’s season-opening loss has left this 6-1 team flying under many people’s radars most of the season.
Pat Coleman
Pat’s take: No. 18 Cortland. Probably someone needs to keep picking Cortland until they get upset, and I will take the short straw this time.
Adam Turer
Adam’s take: No 18. Cortland. Brockport’s defense is the real deal, pitching three shutouts since allowing 33 points in a season-opening loss at Hobart. The top rushing and third down defense is also the fourth-best pass efficiency and total defense in the nation.
Frank Rossi
Frank’s take: No. 8 Ithaca (vs. No. 25 Union). In 2009, the last time Ithaca was No. 8 in the poll, Union beat the Bombers. As long as the Dutchmen come in healthy and have great ball control, history will repeat itself, this time at Butterfield.
Greg Thomas
Greg’s take: No. 18 Cortland. The Golden Eagles have been largely off the radar since their week 1 loss to Hobart. Eight weeks later, that Brockport defense is as smothering as ever and are poised to take control of the E8 race.

Which conference leader or co-leader picks up a loss?

Keith’s take: Benedictine, vs. Aurora. There are lots of candidates, but I think the front-runners will pull a near clean sweep. The Fightin’ Beebes take control in the NACC in a shootout.
Ryan’s take: Benedictine.  A de facto NACC title bout, co-leader Aurora has been more impressive throughout the season (though these last couple of weeks have been easier matchups).
Pat Coleman
Pat’s take: Hanover. Mount St. Joseph will be out to obliterate people the rest of the way and Hanover stands in the Lions’ way this week.
Adam Turer
Adam’s take: Hanover. The Panthers go on the road to a Mount St. Joseph team playing with its season on the line. A Lions win would create a three-way tie atop the HCAC and keep MSJ’s postseason hopes alive.
Frank Rossi
Frank’s take: Denison (vs. DePauw). DePauw’s defense should have enough in the engine to make this a close enough game to win over the Big Red.
Greg Thomas
Greg’s take: Cortland qualifies, but I’ll give another here- Hanover. The Panthers are hot, but taking out Chaiten Tomlin in what is likely his last home game is a tall order.

Which game are you following that nobody else on this panel is following?

Keith’s take: McMurry at Hardin-Simmons.  I just want to see how the Cowboys bounce back from last week’s last-second loss. The War Hawks are 0-7 with two recent nailbiter losses of their own.
Ryan’s take: Fitchburg State at Worcester State. Friday night, under the light, one of these teams will get their first conference win.
Pat Coleman
Pat’s take: Central at Simpson. If Central can’t handle Simpson, they can’t hope to challenge Wartburg in Week 10.
Adam Turer
Adam’s take: Marietta at Baldwin Wallace. I’m still trying to figure out who, if anyone, can give Mount Union a decent challenge in the OAC. I’ve been bullish on the Yellow Jackets since Jim Hilvert took the reins. He has his team positioned for a second straight 7-1 start.
Frank Rossi
Frank’s take: Endicott at Western New England. It’s a huge CCC game between the co-leaders, and both teams can put up a crapload of points (wait, can I say that in Quick Hits?!).
Greg Thomas
Greg’s take: No. 15 Chapman at Pomona-Pitzer.  The last significant hurdle between Chapman and a SCIAC championship, the Panthers will have to survive do-it-all QB Karter Odermann and the Sagehens under the lights.

Which team boosts its profile ahead of Wednesday’s first regional rankings?

Keith’s take: UW-Platteville, at home facing a 5-2 UW-Oshkosh coming off a 31-3 loss to UW-La Crosse, should make a move in the West.
Ryan’s take: Muhlenberg. While Hopkins isn’t the beast they were last year, they’re still an above-average team that make a Mules win meaningful.
Pat Coleman
Pat’s take: Bridgewater. Just by playing Emory & Henry, the Eagles’ strength of schedule stands to improve from .478 to around .499.
Adam Turer
Adam’s take: Ithaca. The Bombers should be able to lock down the number one spot in the East with a win over fellow unbeaten Union.
Frank Rossi
Frank’s take: No. 18 Cortland (vs. Brockport). Cortland’s SOS will take a nice jump, and that’s going to be needed to help the Red Dragons to overtake Salisbury, especially if Ithaca loses against Union.
Greg Thomas
Greg’s take: No. 14 Wesley. The Wolverines won’t have too much trouble at TCNJ, but their already robust Pool C profile will be fortified with road wins by Delaware Valley and Endicott, who I expect will be regionally ranked on Wednesday.

Which team hurts its profile ahead of Wednesday’s first regional rankings?

Keith’s take: Western New England. The Golden Bears are at home, 6-1 and regionally ranked higher than Endicott, but the Gulls can be part of the big shuffle in the East rankings coming this weekend.
Ryan’s take: Bethel. Yeah, they beat Hamline (of course), but Hamline isn’t a win that resonates, piled on by expected losses this week by past Royals opponents St. Olaf, River Falls and Simpson. Bethel’s criteria stock drops.
Pat Coleman
Pat’s take: Union. Because a loss is imminent and while their SOS will increase, that won’t offset the defeat.
Adam Turer
Adam’s take: Bridgewater. I think Emory and Henry can pull off the upset of the unbeaten Eagles.The Wasps have averaged 50 points per game during their current five-game winning streak. This would be a Top 25 upset in my poll.
Frank Rossi
Frank’s take: No. 10 Salisbury. Their next three games will kill their Strength of Schedule. With currently six undefeated teams (vs. D3) in the East, their SOS & results vs. regionally ranked opponents need to prop them up — but their remaining schedule doesn’t help.
Greg Thomas
Greg’s take: No 10. Salisbury. Our mock regional rankings had Salisbury grade out as the top team in the East. But Salisbury is about to get a triple whammy; CNU drops their SOS, East challenger Ithaca picks up a ranked win and their own SOS boost, and UW-Oshkosh loses touch with the West rankings. It’s a fickle game this.

We invite you to add your predictions in the comments below. Download the Around the Nation podcast on Fridays, where Pat and Keith review the Quick Hits that were prescient, and the Quick Misses that were terribly off base.