Triple take: Surges and upsets

Pacific Lutheran
Brandon James ran for 77 yards in Pacific Lutheran’s opener. Are the Lutes ready to pick up where they left off in 2010?
Pacific Lutheran athletics photo

We’ve seen what teams can do, and some may already be grinding their way into conference play. And, perhaps most exciting of all, upsets happening around the nation have been forcing us to reshape our notions of who will compete and who will get left behind as we inch toward the playoffs.

In each of the first two weeks, a national Top 4 team has been knocked off. Is being that high in the rankings is a curse? If so, that means Mary Hardin-Baylor and St. Thomas, as well as Division III’s reining purple powers, will be fending off the ghosts this week.

Pat Coleman, Keith McMillan and Ryan Tipps bring you an inside look at some of the captivating games taking place tonight and Saturday.

Game of the week.
Ryan’s take: Lebanon Valley at No. 25 Delaware Valley.
Recent matchups between these two have been far more lopsided than they should have been, but the Aggies no longer have big-gun quarterback piling up the stats. DelVal is 2-0, but the team’s total margin of victory is 2 points. Lebanon Valley, meanwhile, has been finding the end zone fast and frequently so far in their undefeated debut weeks. The X-factor? It could be penalties. Both teams have lacked some discipline in that category so far this year, with the Dutchmen at six per game and the Aggies at eight per game.
Keith’s take: No. 18 Kean at No. 11 Cortland State. We’ll find out quickly if last week’s big upset was due to Kean being top 25-worthy this season, or Wesley being weaker than normal. Cortland State has played Kean every year since 1996, according to the game notes, but has only lost to the Cougars once, at home in ’09. For Kean, this is as long a road trip as it’ll have in the NJAC, and it’s an opportunity to set up a great season; its next five games are against teams it should beat. Defense will be the key on Saturday; both are opportunistic teams in the turnover battle.
Pat’s take: St. John’s at Concordia-Moorhead. It’s probably been a pretty interesting week for the Johnnies after getting blown out at home by UW-Eau Claire last week. The Johnnies have won five of six in this series and 15 of 18 and coach Terry Horan was a wide receiver for the Cobbers the last time they won at home against St. John’s (1986). Last year’s meeting resulted in 70 combined points (42-28 St. John’s) and 950 yards of total offense.

Surprisingly close game.
Ryan’s take: Mount St. Joseph at Anderson.
Despite being a lower-tier HCAC team, Anderson has had a knack for being able to put up some significant points against the Lions. And Anderson has many of its core skill players back to make even more dents in the MSJ defense.
Keith’s take: Pacific Lutheran at No. 19 Cal Lutheran. When those Lutherans get together, things can get out of hand! In all seriousness, PLU doesn’t come in ranked, but it does come in having held Hamline to 144 yards in an opening-game shutout. Cal Lutheran, and particularly Eric Rogers, who scored one touchdown rushing and had another receiving against Linfield in the opener, is more of a threat than anyone the Lutes saw in Week 1. Yet it appears PLU picked up right where it left off after an 8-1 season. Although CLU should be hungry for its first victory, its home crowd might be a little more sparse than usual with the game moved to Moorpark College because construction at the on-campus stadium is incomplete.
Pat’s take: No. 21 Wittenberg at Washington U. It’s a big test for the 2-0 Bears, who have beaten Knox and Rhodes but now face a team that has won 22 consecutive regular season games. If there’s a time for Wash U to knock the Tigers off, it’s this year, with 12 senior starters and seven consecutive home wins. Last year this game was not competitive at Wittenberg, with the Tigers winning 37-7, but the Tigers have also had some close calls on the road in the past season-plus.

Most likely Top 25 to get upset.
Ryan’s take: No. 12 Ohio Northern.
It’s not as if either the Polar Bears (with a win over N.C. Wesleyan) or opponent Otterbein (with a win over Gallaudet) were overly impressive in Week 1. ONU may not be able to slow Ott’s passing game come Saturday, and it’s tough for them to be guaranteed the edge in the turnover battle. Still, the Cardinals should not have been pushed into overtime by Gallaudet, so there are clear flaws to be worked out in that corner, too. Each team has had the past two weeks to make repairs.
Keith’s take: No. 7 Wheaton, by UW-Platteville. There are quite a few vulnerable top 25 teams, but they aren’t facing a real rugged slate of opponents this weekend. Platteville usually fits in the “not rugged” category as well, but after allowing just 6 points in two wins, outrushing UW-Stevens Point and Buena Vista 197.5-66.5, Wheaton could be in for a much tougher game than last year’s 51-20 victory. The game is a night kickoff at Platteville’s 10,000-seat Pioneer Stadium to boot.
Pat’s take: No. 22 Trine, by UW-River Falls. The Falcons were in the game for a half last week against St. Thomas, which isn’t really an indicator of future success, but I believe that River Falls is ready to bounce back at least a little in its first year under coach Matt Walker. Trine has won two games but not in convincing fashion against teams it would normally beat in a convincing manner.

They’ll be on your radar.
Ryan’s take: Adrian.
It’s been several years since the Bulldogs started a season 2-0. Brandon Miller has proven himself a very capable quarterback, Damon Brown a skilled rusher and the defensive line a stingy bunch. The team’s toughest test of the season comes now against Augustana, whose 0-2 record is deceiving. The Vikings, armed with a pass game that will put a lot of pressure on the Adrian defensive backs, have played two solid teams close.
Keith’s take: St. Vincent. After giving it to FDU-Florham pretty good in a 55-3 victory, let’s see how the Bearcats deal with success. The program has not won consecutive games since its revival, but with trips to Thiel and Geneva (both 0-2) on deck, three in a row is possible. Of course, the Tomcats and Golden Tornadoes are probably licking their chops as well; PAC teams are used to St. Vincent being easy pickings.
Pat’s take: No. 23 Hampden-Sydney. Truth be told, the Tigers should be on your radar already, but wins against the USA South don’t always mean much on the national scene. They have one last USAC opponent this week, Ferrum, then travel to Huntingdon next week.

Which 0-2 team will earn its first win?
Ryan’s take: Franklin and Marshall, vs. Ursinus.
Both F&M and Ursinus got the season started on a rough foot. But I think the Diplomats have the ability to do a better job of stopping Ursinus’ balanced but average offense than the Bears do of stopping F&M’s pass-heavy attack. Ursinus has yet to really break out of the middle of the pack in any significant statistical category, showing that the need remains for them to light a spark before they’ll be taken seriously as Centennial competitors. For F&M, it’s all about follow-through. Seven trips to the red zone and only two touchdowns? That has to improve if F&M wants to win some games this season.
Keith’s take: Coe, vs. Simpson. Both the Kohawks and Storm were blown out against a top-five team in Week 1 and lost a close one last week. Coe, ranked in the preseason, comes back home against a team it beat 42-21 last season. Coe has rushed for 206 yards per game and 5 per carry; Simpson allowed 411 and 7.6 against Bethel and could be similarly vulnerable in the ground game this weekend.
Pat’s take: Wooster, vs. Oberlin. Although the Yeomen are 1-0 themselves, with a 42-0 win against Kenyon, Wooster will still have an easier time than it had against Baldwin-Wallace and Wabash to open the season. The Scots will need to do a better job hanging onto the ball, though, having turned it over eight times in the first two weeks.

Which upset winner from last weekend will have the biggest letdown?
Ryan’s take: UW-Platteville.
In Wheaton’s opener, the Thunder posted 570 yards. Passing, rushing, it was all good news for this stalwart of the CCIW. After Platteville shocked UW-Stevens Point into a lopsided affair last week, don’t expect Wheaton to be as likely to fall. Platteville’s undefeated season ends here.
Keith’s take: Utica. Perhaps the Pioneers have risen enough and Union has fallen to the point where last week’s 28-27 Utica win is no longer an upset. But this week has letdown written all over it, with a lengthy road trip down to Maryland, where the Pioneers may be walking into a beehive of emotion. It’s Frostburg State’s first home game since teammate Derek Sheely died in the preseason. Fans are asked to wear white. On the field, the Bobcats have looked potent offensively; they racked up 411 yards in a losing effort at Springfield last weekend.
Pat’s take: McMurry. Mary Hardin-Baylor is a much better team than UT-San Antonio, regardless of the number of scholarships either one offers. But the War Hawks shouldn’t be intimidated by anything the Cru throws at them, having gotten knocked around hard by a Top 25 FCS team in Week 1 and having played in front of 30,000-plus in Week 2.

If you were a bird, what kind of bird would you be?
Ryan’s take: A Cardinal from Catholic.
For two weeks in a row, quarterback Greg Cordivari has led his offense on last-minute, game-winning drives to usher in a team that’s 2-0 instead of the other way around. Being a CUA fan has been a heart-pounding feat so far this season. Tonight, Carnegie Mellon is on tap.
Keith’s take: A War Hawk from McMurry. I see what you did there. Interesting question. After an 82-6 loss to one D-I-FCS program and a televised win over another last week, I’d be a War Hawk so I can take confidence from that win over UT-San Antonio into the atmosohere under the lights at No. 3 Mary Hardin-Baylor and see if that helps our team, um, soar.
Pat’s take: Hawk. The one from Huntingdon. This weekend is Huntingdon’s chance to write perhaps the final chapter in the Bible Bowl, a rivalry between the Hawks and crosstown rival Faulkner. An NAIA member, Faulkner is seeing its conference schedule expanded to 10 games next year, and the rivalry needs to go. But the game doesn’t help Huntingdon’s playoff chances anyway, and in addition, Huntingdon has won all four meetings so far.

Where we’ve been, who we’ve seen

Keith McMillan talks at length about some of the trips he has taken since starting the Around the Nation column back in 2001. Some of those trips he and I have taken together, sometimes he’s been on his own, but the goal, at least unofficially, is to see every Division III team play someday, and see a game in every home stadium.

Now, to be honest, that isn’t very realistic. The fact remains that it’s very difficult to see more than one game in a weekend, which limits the number of teams either of us can see in a season. And I recently moved away from the east coast, where I had a much better chance of knocking teams off the list. But I’ll continue to give it a try.

I’m only counting the teams I’ve seen play (must have seen at least half of a game to qualify) and stadiums I’ve been in for a D-III game. I’ve also visited a bunch of campuses and walked through, or around a bunch of stadiums: Aurora, Beloit, Concordia (Ill.), Delaware Valley, Hamline, Huntingdon, Illinois Wesleyan, LaGrange, Lake Forest, Lebanon Valley, Lewis and Clark, Millsaps, Mississippi College, North Park, Northwestern, Oberlin, St. Thomas, Susquehanna, Trinity (Conn.), Wittenberg, Wooster, WPI. But I’ve seen 108 teams play, by my count, and seen games in 61 stadiums.

This doesn’t count Swarthmore, which I saw play back in the ’90s. Unfortunately, it seems that was a one-time occurrence.

Some of the places I’ve seen games have changed quite a bit. I mean, I was at St. John Fisher in 1994 but I know the stadium isn’t a bit like that was. I saw FDU-Madis… excuse me, FDU-Florham in a different era. Soon my view on RPI will be outdated. But they all count. And maybe I’ll get back there again.

Here’s who I’ve seen play, starting in 1991: Albright, Alfred, Augsburg, Augustana, Aurora, Benedictine, Bethel, Blackburn, Bridgewater (Va.), Brockport State, Cal Lutheran, Capital, Carleton, Carnegie Mellon, Catholic, Central, Chicago, Christopher Newport, Coast Guard, Coe, Cortland State, Crown, Curry, Delaware Valley, Dickinson, East Texas Baptist, Elmhurst, Emory & Henry, FDU-Florham, Franklin & Marshall, Frostburg State, Gallaudet, Gettysburg, Greensboro, Grove City, Guilford, Gustavus Adolphus, Hampden-Sydney, Hanover, Hardin-Simmons, Hobart, Howard Payne, Huntingdon, Ithaca, John Carroll, Johns Hopkins, Kean, King’s, Linfield, Louisiana College, Lycoming, Macalester, Maranatha Baptist, Mary Hardin-Baylor, McDaniel, McMurry, Merchant Marine, Methodist, Millsaps, Mississippi College, Minnesota-Morris, Montclair State, Mount Union, Muhlenberg, North Carolina Wesleyan, New Jersey, Newport News, Nichols, North Central, Northwestern (Minn.), Pacific Lutheran, Principia, Randolph-Macon, Rockford, Rowan, RPI, Salisbury, Shenandoah, Springfield, St. John Fisher, St. Olaf, St. John’s, St. Scholastica, St. Thomas, Susquehanna, Thiel, Thomas More, Trinity (Conn.), Trinity (Texas), Union, Ursinus, UW-Eau Claire, UW-La Crosse, UW-Stout, UW-Whitewater, Washington and Jefferson, Washington and Lee, Washington U., Waynesburg, Wesley, Western Connecticut, Wheaton, Widener, Wilkes, William Paterson, Williams, Wittenberg, Worcester State.

Key gets: I went out of my way to see Cal Lutheran when they came to Muhlenberg in 2002. Saw a bunch of teams last year at the UMAC’s Dome Day. Picked off both Macalester and St. Scholastica just this past weekend. Saw both Susquehanna and Grove City play at Dickinson, in 1999 and 2000, and never since. Traveled with Catholic when I was a student to a game at the University of Chicago.

And the schools at which I’ve seen games: Albright, Augsburg, Benedictine, Bridgewater (Va.), Capital, Carnegie Mellon, Catholic, Central, Chicago, Coast Guard, Cortland State, Dickinson, Elmhurst, FDU-Florham, Franklin & Marshall, Frostburg State, Gallaudet, Gettysburg, Hampden-Sydney, Hardin-Simmons, Johns Hopkins, Kean, King’s, Linfield, Lycoming, Macalester, Mary Hardin-Baylor, McDaniel, McMurry, Merchant Marine, Montclair State, Mount Union, Muhlenberg, New Jersey, North Central, Randolph-Macon, Rowan, RPI, Salisbury, Shenandoah, Springfield, St. John Fisher, St. Olaf, St. John’s, Thiel, Trinity (Texas), Union, Ursinus, UW-Eau Claire, UW-Stout, UW-Whitewater, Washington and Jefferson, Washington U., Wesley, Western Connecticut, Wheaton, Widener, Wilkes, William Paterson, Williams, Worcester State.

New this year: East Texas Baptist, Macalester, St. Scholastica, Wartburg,

There are certainly some holes in this list. Never seen Wabash (or DePauw, take it easy, people!). I’ve never been to a SCIAC school or seen anyone from the Midwest Conference. Didn’t take nearly enough advantage of my year in Connecticut. But I’ll get the list down, slowly but surely.

Not sure if Keith will chime in with his list, but anyone else is welcome, of course.

Triple Take: It’s Guru Bowl Week!

Before Pat and Keith were ever colleagues at D3football.com, they were on opposite sides of Catholic/Randolph-Macon clashes, at about the time when the two teams began to have thrilling enough games to begin calling it a rivalry. That must have the boys a little giddy this week, so for our weekly Triple Take look at highlights from Saturday’s lineup, we brought in the steady hand of Around the mid-Atlantic columnist Ryan Tipps. Because someone’s got to give some serious analysis while the jokesters yuk it up.

Game of the Week
Ryan’s take: No. 6 Salisbury at Delaware Valley.
The last time the Aggies played at home, they felled one of D-III’s predicted titans of 2008. That team, Wesley, also happens to be the biggest conference rival of Salisbury. When it comes to using a common opponent to predict the strength of teams, it doesn’t get any more straight-forward than this. At stake for Delaware Valley is proof that it could be the biggest threat to the rest of the MAC teams. For Salisbury, at stake is one of seven crucial regional games that will go a long way toward a fragile Pool B bid.
Keith’s take: No. 16 Ithaca at No. 11 St. John Fisher. We try not to double up picking the same game, but I think this is pretty obviously the G.O.T.W. for Week 4. I mentioned it a bit in Around the Nation, but otherwise Pat can do the heavy lifting …
Pat’s take: No. 16 Ithaca at No. 11 St. John Fisher. Ithaca does seem a little bit more put together at this point but with Dan Juvan playing on a bad right ankle and wearing a protective boot this week, plus St. John Fisher having the home field, I think that levels things out a bit. Plus, repeat after me, there’s no love lost when these two teams met. That’s from our Sportscaster Clichés 101 textbook. Bet you thought I was going to say something about throwing out record books. Hah! Not that predictable.

Surprisingly close game
Ryan’s take: Gettysburg at Muhlenberg.
The Bullets’ 0-3 record is highly deceiving. Muhlenberg is ranked fifth in the country, but Gettysburg has been playing good teams with surprising intensity. Gettysburg traded last year’s running shoes for this year’s throwing arm, but whether that can penetrate the Mules’ stout defense is the biggest question mark.
Keith’s take: WPI at RPI. I never get this category right, but it’s about highlighting a good game, not me being right. Worcester Polytech has given up just 17 points in the two wins since their five-overtime opener against Mass-Dartmouth. RPI is heading into Game 3 of a nine-game slate and has one fewer game under its belt. If both defenses are playing as well as they have been (WPI allows 250 yards per game, RPI 272), it should be a good one.
Pat’s take: No. 14 Franklin at Trine. The MIAA has gone a long time between signature wins — in fact, I can’t name one at the moment. But Trine has looked good so far and Franklin has drifted up fairly high in the rankings, especially for an HCAC team.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset
Ryan’s take: No. 17 Cortland State.
Armed with a budding star in freshman quarterback Thomas D’Ambrisi, Kean is in prime position to play the spoiler in the NJAC. The Cougars’ first upset starts here.
Keith’s take: No. 6 Salisbury. I don’t have high hopes for anyone playing a top 25 team this week, but Delaware Valley will come in confident and well-rested after knocking off then-No. 3 Wesley two weeks ago. With the extra week to practice stopping the option and attacking the 3-3-5, the Aggies could pull it off.
Pat’s take: No. 19 Millsaps. Does Rhodes have the defense to slow down the Majors’ offense? Perhaps not, but with Millsaps outscoring opponents 39-9 this year and Rhodes’ defense having allowed just 14 points this season, repeat after me, something’s gotta give. That’s our second sportscaster cliché for the day. Thanks for playing!

They’ll be on your radar
Ryan’s take: Christopher Newport.
A delayed opener, an uneasy team and a top 10 opponent. Last week the Captains were two steps behind in a three-step race. This week, against Wilkes, will be a better and more balanced showcase for CNU with conference play on the horizon.
Keith’s take: Catholic. At 3-0 and quietly poised to contend in the wide-open ODAC, the Cardinals must defeat Randolph-Macon, which has become quite a rival. The teams haven’t had a game decided by more than 10 points since 2003. R-MC has struggled, leaving an opening for CUA to be the team to push defending champion Hampden-Sydney.
Pat’s take: Wooster. Although, the Scots should be already, even before the trip to Denison. They’re 2-0 and have outscored opponents 47-8.

Which of last week’s West Region upset victims bounces back the strongest?
Ryan’s take: St. John’s.
The Johnnies won’t nail a lopsided victory, but they will gain confidence — and maybe a better understanding of their quarterback situation — against the currently undefeated Gusties.
Keith’s take: St. John’s. Sorry to be a copycat, but the Johnnies don’t lose often, and rarely twice in a row. Gustavus might give St. John’s a run, but I’d be surprised if it were a tight game in the final minutes.
Pat’s take: Central. Albion has won three of its past 13 games, prime for a Central get-well card.

Which long losing streak ends this week?
Ryan’s take: North Park.
Dating back to last season, the Vikings have limped through 10 straight losses entering their game against Benedictine. North Park’s most apparent weakness is defending the run. But the team’s solid pass defense should match up well against the Eagles, who have gained almost twice as many yards throwing the ball this season that they have running it.
Keith’s take: Cornell. I’m reaching, but eventually the Rams have to catch a break, right? After 22 IIAC losses in a row, maybe No. 22 Wartburg comes in riding high after the Central win and gets caught napping. By a score of 22-21. This is the topsy-turvy IIAC, after all, it’s not impossible.
Pat’s take: Buffalo State. There just aren’t many long losing streaks left, as Keith pointed out in Around the Nation. I’m going to cast my lot with the Bengals, who have lost eight in a row in heading to Western Connecticut. The Bengals did roll up 278 yards on the ground in a 42-32 loss to TCNJ this past week.

Who wins the Guru Bowl? That would be Pat’s alma mater (Catholic U.) at Keith’s alma mater (Randolph-Macon).
Ryan’s take: Randolph-Macon.
It’s certainly hard to ignore a Catholic team that is undefeated and at the opposite end of the conference ladder as R-MC. Both teams are more balanced offensively than they have been in past years, but it’s the Yellow Jackets that have a more threatening defensive secondary and should be able to rein in Catholic quarterback Keith Ricca’s well-defined receiving corps.
Keith’s take: Catholic. Darn. I already said I’d be watching Catholic. Of course I’m pulling for Randolph-Macon. I mean, not professionally, just personally. Well, maybe I could make a case for professionally, since R-MC bouncing back after a rough start would make them a compelling team to follow. I’ve been following this rivalry for a lot of years now, and it tends to alternate years. So my “pick” is based on that. Plus, it makes me appear really fair and balanced!
Pat’s take: Catholic. I have to take this, right? Make sure to tell the guys to remember John Butler knocking down a pass at the end of the game to win in 1994, or Bob Frole pulling down a two-point conversion to tie the 1995 game 50-50.