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Quick Hits Predicts the First Round Scores

The story goes, one day on a long ride to a playoff game at Thiel (which tells you how long ago this happened), Pat and Keith decided to pass the time by guessing not just the winner of each first-round playoff game, but the score. And there was born the expectations game: Do we expect a close game? A high-scoring game? A blowout? Does everyone agree on who will win? Those are the factors worth looking at.

Keith McMillan, Ryan Tipps, Pat Coleman, Adam Turer, Frank Rossi and Greg Thomas each take their guesses at scores for each first-round game.

— Pat Coleman (d3photography.com photo)

Mary Hardin-Baylor bracket
Keith’s take: UMHB 56, Redlands 28
Ryan’s take: UMHB 31, Redlands 10
Pat’s take: UMHB 45, Redlands 24
Adam’s take: UMHB 23, Redlands 17
Frank’s take: UMHB 35, Redlands 17
Greg’s take: UMHB 30, Redlands 14
Consensus: Strong consensus here for a Cru win by two or three scores.
Keith’s take: Berry 35, Huntingdon 31
Ryan’s take: Berry 38, Huntingdon 34
Pat’s take: Berry 56, Huntingdon 17
Adam’s take: Berry 24, Huntingdon 21
Frank’s take: Huntingdon 31, Berry 30
Greg’s take: Berry 38, Huntingdon 13
Consensus: Not quite unanimous, but the panel favors Berry by varying margins.
Keith’s take: UW-Whitewater 42, Monmouth 21
Ryan’s take: UW-Whitewater 42, Monmouth 7
Pat’s take: UW-Whitewater 50, Monmouth 6
Adam’s take: UW-Whitewater 44, Monmouth 24
Frank’s take: UW-Whitewater 47, Monmouth 16
Greg’s take: UW-Whitewater 41, Monmouth 7
Consensus: Unanimous picks for a comfortable Warhawk victory.
Keith’s take: Wartburg 27, Hope 21
Ryan’s take: Wartburg 34, Hope 24
Pat’s take: Wartburg 38, Hope 28
Adam’s take: Wartburg 40, Hope 37
Frank’s take: Wartburg 27, Hope 21
Greg’s take: Wartburg 38, Hope 35
Consensus: It’s a sweep for Wartburg in a high scoring, one score game.
Wheaton bracket
Keith’s take: Wheaton 49, Martin Luther 0
Ryan’s take: Wheaton 50, Martin Luther 6
Pat’s take: Wheaton 62, Martin Luther 6
Adam’s take: Wheaton 50, Martin Luther 6
Frank’s take: Wheaton 56, Martin Luther 10
Greg’s take: Wheaton 56, Martin Luther 0
Consensus: The panel sees top-seeded Wheaton cruising into the second round.
Keith’s take: UW-Oshkosh 18, Central 14
Ryan’s take: Central 28, UW-Oshkosh 27
Pat’s take: UW-Oshkosh 30, Central 20
Adam’s take: UW-Oshkosh 28, Central 27
Frank’s take: UW-Oshkosh 31, Central 20
Greg’s take: UW-Oshkosh 28, Central 10
Consensus: It isn’t unanimous, but the Titans are the panel’s choice to advance by one or two scores.
Keith’s take: Linfield 35, Chapman 27
Ryan’s take: Linfield 31, Chapman 28
Pat’s take: Chapman 28, Linfield 27
Adam’s take: Linfield 19, Chapman 16
Frank’s take: Linfield 35, Chapman 27
Greg’s take: Chapman 24, Linfield 21
Consensus: Split decision for Linfield in what appears to be one of the closer games of the first round.
Keith’s take: St. John’s 38, Aurora 24
Ryan’s take: St. John’s 52, Aurora 13
Pat’s take: St. John’s 54, Aurora 35
Adam’s take: St. John’s 49, Aurora 35
Frank’s take: St. John’s 45, Aurora 14
Greg’s take: St. John’s 49, Aurora 21
Consensus: Aurora likely won’t get completely shut down, but St. John’s should be able to outscore the Spartans and win by multiple scores.
Salisbury bracket
Keith’s take: Salisbury 63, SUNY-Maritime 0
Ryan’s take: Salisbury 63, SUNY-Maritime 0
Pat’s take: Salisbury 68, SUNY-Maritime 0
Adam’s take: Salisbury 57, SUNY-Maritime 9
Frank’s take: Salisbury 55, SUNY-Maritime 10
Greg’s take: Salisbury 56, SUNY-Maritime 7
Consensus: Unanimous predictions here for an easy run to the second round for the Sea Gulls.
Keith’s take: Union 31, Case 21
Ryan’s take: Union 38, Case 17
Pat’s take: Union 24, Case 17
Adam’s take: Union 34, Case 24
Frank’s take: Union 31, Case 21
Greg’s take: Union 27, Case 17
Consensus: Clean sweep for the Dutchmen, generally by about 10 points.
Keith’s take: Muhlenberg 45, MIT 10
Ryan’s take: Muhlenberg 45, MIT 14
Pat’s take: Muhlenberg 56, MIT 6
Adam’s take: Muhlenberg 45, MIT 3
Frank’s take: Muhlenberg 42, MIT 14
Greg’s take: Muhlenberg 42, MIT 7
Consensus: The Mules should overwhelm the Engineers and trot on in to the second round.
Keith’s take: Brockport 22, W. New England 19
Ryan’s take: W. New England 24, Brockport 21
Pat’s take: Brockport 24, W. New England 13
Adam’s take: Brockport 20, W. New England 14
Frank’s take: W. New England 27, Brockport 20
Greg’s take: Brockport 26, W. New England 10
Consensus: Split decision for Brockport, but this game looks to be close.
Mount Union bracket
Keith’s take: Mount Union 63, Hanover 7
Ryan’s take: Mount Union 63, Hanover 3
Pat’s take: Mount Union 56, Hanover 10
Adam’s take: Mount Union 48, Hanover 24
Frank’s take: Mount Union 59, Hanover 7
Greg’s take: Mount Union 61, Hanover 10
Consensus: No surprise here, Mount Union is predicted to advance easily.
Keith’s take: North Central 40, Wabash 25
Ryan’s take: North Central 42, Wabash 10
Pat’s take: North Central 56, Wabash 10
Adam’s take: North Central 38, Wabash 14
Frank’s take: North Central 45, Wabash 21
Greg’s take: North Central 45, Wabash 21
Consensus: North Central’s top-ranked offense sweeps the board with a comfortable win over Wabash.
Keith’s take: Wesley 17, Framingham State 14
Ryan’s take: Wesley 28, Framingham State 20
Pat’s take: Wesley 41, Framingham State 24
Adam’s take: Wesley 21, Framingham State 20
Frank’s take: Wesley 21, Framingham State 20
Greg’s take: Wesley 24, Framingham State 21
Consensus: Wesley is the unanimous pick, but five of our panelists see a one score game.
Keith’s take: Del Val 28, Bridgewater 24
Ryan’s take: Del Val 41, Bridgewater 21
Pat’s take: Bridgewater 17, Del Val 15
Adam’s take: Bridgewater 21, Del Val 14
Frank’s take: Del Val 27, Bridgewater 24
Greg’s take: Del Val 17, Bridgewater 10
Consensus: Split decision for Delaware Valley, with the panel largely seeing a close game that could go either way.

We invite you to add your predictions in the comments below, or tweet at us at @D3Keith, @NewsTipps and @d3football. Download the Around the Nation podcast on Mondays, where Pat and Keith review the picks and the highlights from the weekend’s playoff games.

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Quick Hits Week 10: It’s Bid Clinching Season!

We’ve reached the penultimate week of the regular season which means games with major Pool C implications, games that will decide conference champions, and a lot of teams playing the game before THE game. Our panel gets you ready for Week 10 as they take a look at who is getting in, who is getting trapped, and which bubbles are getting popped.

Our regular crew is Keith McMillan, Ryan Tipps, Pat Coleman, Adam Turer, Frank Rossi and Greg Thomas.

— Greg Thomas

Which game is the Game of the Week?

keith-mcmillan-150x200
Keith’s take: No. 25 TLU at No. 2 UMHB. It’s on the Bulldogs to hold up their end of the bargain vs. the champs to make this a GOTW, but given the defensive and turnover margin prowess by both, it should be one.
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Ryan’s take: No. 25 Texas Lutheran at No. 2 Mary-Hardin Baylor. I’ve got TLU much higher on my ballot than 25th, and this very well could be a play-in game for them for the postseason.
Pat Coleman
Pat’s take: No. 11 Wartburg at Central. This has almost as much potential to mess things up, and should be a closer game.
Adam Turer
Adam’s take: Randolph-Macon at No. 24 Bridgewater. The overwhelming preseason ODAC favorite takes on the team that has dominated the conference all year. Each team has proven it can win with all three phases. A playoff berth is at stake. #ODACtion. .
Frank Rossi
Frank’s take: No. 25 Texas Lutheran at No. 2 Mary Hardin-Baylor. The entire Pool C nation is going to be watching this game to see if a bubble bursts, and with TLU’s win vs. the Cowboys earlier this season — it’s not an impossible situation.
Greg Thomas
Greg’s take: Birmingham-Southern at Trinity(TX). I preview the game and its SAA importance in today’s ATN, but Robert Shufford has been a must watch attraction for three weeks now and has his Panthers on the brink of the playoffs.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to get upset?

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Keith’s take: No. 10 John Carroll. If Heidelberg makes a two-point conversion on Sept. 28 vs. Baldwin Wallace, this is the Pool C elimination game, not BW/JCU next week, potentially.
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Ryan’s take: No. 11 Wartburg. The Knights and Central have the ARC’s top two offenses, and Central’s is balanced enough to do some real damage against a good defense like Wartburg’s.
Pat Coleman
Pat’s take: No. 18 St. Thomas. Gustavus Adolphus almost pulled this off last year, and it seems more likely in 2019.
Adam Turer
Adam’s take: No. 23 Linfield. Whitworth has uncharacteristically lost two games already this season. Yet, the Pirates still have their playoff goal within reach. A win over the surging Wildcats would put Whitworth in the NWC driver’s seat.
Frank Rossi
Frank’s take: No. 24 Bridgewater (vs. Randolph-Macon). I just haven’t had a high level of confidence with Bridgewater, even despite the Stevenson game earlier this season. The Yellow Jackets had their scare last week and bounce back well here.
Greg Thomas
Greg’s take: No. 10 John Carroll. This one has all the makings. With a possible play-in game looming in Week 11, the Streaks have to survive a Senior Day afternoon against a quality Heidelberg side.

Which team makes a strong Pool C statement?

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Keith’s take: Bridgewater or Wartburg.  I don’t think this was the intent of the question, but the Pool C statement might be, “Come join us.”
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Ryan’s take: No. 6 North Central. IWU’s early-season losses knocked them out of many folks’ minds, but they have a good SOS and record, which will further bolster NCC’s resume with a win.
Pat Coleman
Pat’s take: Ithaca. RPI lost twice in the past five games, and the three wins were against teams who are a combined 2-23.
Adam Turer
Adam’s take: No. 17 Ithaca. Every game from here on out is a chance for the Bombers to bounce back and prove themselves worthy of a playoff bid. But Union has already clinched the Liberty League’s automatic bid. The Bombers can’t look past RPI, even with the big game looming in Week 11.
Frank Rossi
Frank’s take: No. 17 Ithaca (at RPI). Word from Ithaca was that the locker room was silent after last week’s Union loss. However, the Regional Rankings reminded the Bombers on how they can still make it into the NCAA Playoffs — they rebound in Troy.
Greg Thomas
Greg’s take: No. 6 North Central. North Central’s SOS may garner a bit of side-eye from other Pool C hopefuls, but Saturday’s result against Illinois Wesleyan will be decisive and leave no doubt about the quality of these Cardinals.

Which game are you following that nobody else on this panel is following?

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Keith’s take: Middlebury at Tufts. Of all the great NESCAC rivalry games, it’s a non-rival that stands between the Panthers and 9-0. And since five of their wins are by 7 points or fewer, beating the 4-4 Jumbos is no gimme.
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Ryan’s take: Oberlin at DePauw.  I’ve already seen Wabash this year, but I haven’t gotten a great look at DePauw just yet, and now’s the time with just a week before Monon Bell.
Pat Coleman
Pat’s take: Springfield at Maine Maritime. If you’re following, don’t blink. Game should last about 2 hours, 15 minutes.
Adam Turer
Adam’s take: Hanover at Rose-Hulman. The HCAC championship game comes a week earlier than expected. The Panthers dispatched Mount St. Joseph in Week 9, and perennial power Franklin has already stumbled to two conference losses. The Fightin’ Engineers will host a de facto conference championship game for the first time.
Frank Rossi
Frank’s take: Coast Guard at WPI. The NEWMAC race will become much clearer after this game. A WPI win makes it more of a WPI/MIT race in Week 11. A WPI loss makes it more of a MIT/Springfield race then, assuming MIT and Springfield win this week.
Greg Thomas
Greg’s take: Hiram at Wabash. The gates at Byron P. Hollett Little Giant Stadium close tomorrow for the last time, home of Wabash football since 1966. What’s that? My eyes? That’s nothing. Just a little demolition dust.

Which team stumbles before its Week 11 rivalry game?

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Keith’s take: No. 17 Ithaca.  I wouldn’t bet on the Bombers to lose, since RPI has looked nothing like the quarterfinalist it was last season. But no team has a bigger trap game, with a 42,000+ rivalry game crowd and potential play-in looming.
ryan-tipps-150x200
Ryan’s take: Hanover. Rose-Hulman is 6-2, with a lot of similar scores against common opponents. It’ll be a very tough matchup for the Panthers ahead of the Victory Bell game against Franklin.
Pat Coleman
Pat’s take: Rowan, with a loss on the grass at CNU before their big game with rival TCNJ next week.
Adam Turer
Adam’s take: Hampden-Sydney. The Tigers stumble to a shocking 1-8 start before The Game. The worst season in program history since 1999 could still be salvaged in Week 11 against rival Randolph-Macon.
Frank Rossi
Frank’s take: RPI (vs. No. 17 Ithaca). After RPI came and eked out a one-point win at Ithaca last year, an improved Bombers team is going to get revenge on RPI’s home turf this year.
Greg Thomas
Greg’s take: Ohio Wesleyan. Double dipping in the NCAC here, but Denison has looked fantastic this season outside of their trip to Wabash. The Battling Bishops may have a rough time on Saturday ahead of their Week 11 battle for Ye Olde Skull at Wittenberg.

Which unranked team clinches a bid to the tournament?

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Keith’s take: Randolph-Macon.  (drops mic, struts out of room)
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Ryan’s take: Framingham State. This is absolutely no gimme, however, going up against MASCAC No. 2 Bridgewater State, Framingham does have all the pieces in place to clinch.
Pat Coleman
Pat’s take: Hanover. And if they don’t, I blame the next guy on the list.
Adam Turer
Adam’s take: SUNY-Maritime. Although it comes with an asterisk, it’s still an impressive debut for rookie head coach Mickey Rehring.
Frank Rossi
Frank’s take: Framingham St. (vs. Bridgewater St.). The Rams are always tough at home, and the MASCAC is up for grabs in this game — FSU wins it with a win; BSU can’t win it until next week if the Bears win.
Greg Thomas
Greg’s take: Hanover. I couldn’t have been more wrong about the Panthers last week, so I’m bringing them back and picking them here to win at RHIT and punch their ticket to a second consecutive NCAA tournament.

We invite you to add your predictions in the comments below. Download the Around the Nation podcast on Fridays, where Pat and Keith review the Quick Hits that were prescient, and the Quick Misses that were terribly off base.

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ATN Podcast 257: The one with the bronze and the turkey

This is where stuff gets tight. We already have some of our traditional season-ending rivalry games going on this weekend (Bronze Turkey, The Drum, Amherst-Williams) and the chase for the Walnut and Bronze is in full swing. We start by talking about the regional rankings, first with NCAA Division III football national committee chair Jim Catanzaro, where we ask him about some of the oddities at the bottom of the East and West Region rankings. Plus, his Lake Forest team essentially plays in a conference semifinal on Saturday against St. Norbert. Then Pat and Keith have a viewers’ guide for everyone on the bubble. We’ll tell you who you need to root for, or against, on Saturday.

Plus, Pat and Keith make up a rivalry trophy for a South Region game this week. Keith picks six winners and also has to mock a famous (or infamous) broadcaster, while Pat crosses the country to pick winners.

This edition of the D3football.com Around the Nation podcast is sponsored by Gotta Have It: 3D Fan Foam Wall Signs for the D-III fan in your life.

This edition of the D3football.com Around the Nation podcast is also sponsored by The National Bobblehead Hall of Fame and Museum and their limited-edition Mount Union football bobblehead.

Pat and Keith talk about it all in the latest D3football.com Around the Nation Podcast. The D3football.com Around the Nation Podcast is a regular conversation between Pat Coleman and Keith McMillan and guests covering the wide range of Division III football.

Hit play, or subscribe to get this podcast on your mobile device.

Full episode:

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Theme music: DJmentos. Texas Lutheran athletics photo; Joe Fusco, d3photography.com.