Dave’s Top 25 ballot: Week 10

Last week’s “easy” week was the exact opposite this week. I erased so many decisions on my pad of paper I practically wore right through the page.

Sufficed to say, this season is crazy. There isn’t a coach I talk with these days who can’t believe what they are seeing with results. There isn’t a Top 25 voter I have chatted with who is sure of half of their ballot. It really is nuts.

This week: the top five didn’t change; five through thirteen went through some readjustments; fourteen on… chaos. Complete upheaval. I spent a couple of hours changing my mind. I thought that by casting a wider net, maybe some teams would jump up and force me to punt other teams. In fact, it only made the decision(s) harder. At one point I seriously had 30 teams I was considering for 12 spots… and I probably could have talked myself into ten more teams!

All and all… I am not satisfied my Top 25 is the best ballot it could be this week. I am too uneasy about a lot of teams, recent outcomes, and those maybe I am discounting for whatever reason. More losses are pretty much guaranteed and I will be back in the same boat each week – so I might as well get comfortable!

As always before we begin, here is a look at last week’s ballot:

1 – St. Thomas
2 – UW-Whitewater
3 – Marietta
4 – Randolph-Macon
5 – Babson
6 – Augustana
7 – Dickinson
8 – St. Norbert
9 – WPI
10 – Virginia Wesleyan
11 – Albertus Magnus
12 – Chapman
13 – St. John Fisher
14 – Emory
15 – Whitworth
16 – Wooster
17 – New York Univ.
18 – Johns Hopkins
19 – Elmhurst
20 – Chicago
21 – Illinois Wesleyan
22 – Washington Univ.
23 – Franklin & Marshall
24 – Ohio Wesleyan
25 – Catholic

And now on to this week’s ballot with some explanations for some of the moves:

1 – St. Thomas (Unchanged)

2 – UW-Whitewater (Unchanged)

3 – Marietta (Unchanged)

4 – Randolph-Macon* (Unchanged)

5 – Babson (Unchanged)

6 – Virginia Wesleyan (Up 4)
At least someone is winning. We all know the Marlins are always going to be a good team. Maybe this is the year the ODAC has two deep threats.

7 – St. Norbert (Up 1)

8 – Augustana (Down 2)
Another loss for the Vikings. The CCIW is clearly one of the toughest conferences in the country this year with even the bottom being a major threat, but Augustana has to stand up and get it done and not keep taking losses. It is already going to be hard to get at-large bids this season, you don’t want the end of the season plagued with losses to dash your hopes. Big game against Illinois Wesleyan this week – looking for the Vikings to exact some revenge on the road for the earlier loss at Rock Island or Augustana drops and IWU jumps up further!

9 – WPI* (Unchanged)
When you lose to a team I have ranked ahead of you anyway, I am not going to drop you down the poll. I expected Babson to win based on my rankings, so WPI stays in the Top 10 as a result.

10 – Dickinson (Down 3)
Ouch! I figured the Red Devils were due for another conference loss with Johns Hopkins and Franklin & Marshall (on the road) still on their schedule, but Ursinus*?! Seriously?! It was a rough Saturday in the Centennial (call is Centennial Conference Carnage), but you can’t afford to drop games against teams you should be beating (theme for this week’s blog). I realize Ursinus is vastly improved over the squad I saw in December (wasn’t pretty), but Dickinson is better than that. And again… JHU and F&M still to play before the conference tournament!

11 – Chapman (Up 1)
Stop a two game slide with a hard-fought win over Claremont-Mudd-Scripps… impressive. I pretty much had resigned the fact Chapman might lose that game because CMS is pretty good and Chapman seemed to be struggling. That win could have saved Chapman’s post-season hopes.

12 – Albertus Magnus (Down 1)

13 – St. John Fisher (Unchanged)

14 – UW-Stevens Point (Unranked)
Every time I thought about adding the Pointers to my Top 25 ballot I reminded myself they have to play Whitewater this week. If the last game is any barometer, the Pointers are going to lose. So how could I justify putting them into my Top 25 if I think they are going to lose this week? Couple of reasons: they are at least winning and Whitewater is so far their only blemish (but, Oshkosh did nearly get them the next game); they have won 11 of their last 12 and starting to take control of games again; they have Stephen Pelkofer back from injury (played 37 minutes against Platteville) and that is a very good sign for the Pointers. Oh… and I am probably one of the only voters who hadn’t had them in my Top 25 by this point.

15 – Johns Hopkins* (Up 3)
Got a big win over Franklin & Marshall* to split the season with the Diplomats and continue a 16 game winning streak (last loss was to F&M back on November 25). That also equates to a two game lead on Dickinson who the Blue Jays have already beaten. This blue-collar team isn’t backing down!

16 – Emory (Down 2)
I watch (on video) the Eagles blow through Rochester on Friday and then once again struggle against NYU* and loss on Sunday. I am pretty sure Emory is glad NYU is in their rear view mirror – but the entire UAA has been this way this season. It is a very difficult conference this season. I can’t ding Emory that much for losing to a really good team (more on NYU in a minute) when I saw them roll over the Yellow Jackets. I also take into account I haven’t talked to one single coach who has seen Emory and not spoken highly of them. Weird year.

17 – Illinois Wesleyan (Up 5)
I haven’t been that thrilled with the Titans this season, but they keep getting it done even after tough losses. There were comments that Illinois Wesleyan wasn’t a Top 25 team just a few weeks ago after a couple of losses in the CCIW. What I think we actually saw was the early signs the CCIW as going to be very difficult. Now IWU finds themselves in the conference lead by a game with Augustana coming to town this week. Talk about a statement game. If you thought the win at Rock Island was important? This week is even more important. Potential two-game lead in a very difficult conference and the chance to get the tournament through Bloomfield versus Rock Island… big, big game.

18 – Ohio Wesleyan (Up 6)
Yeah… I might be jumping a bit too much here, but the Battling Bishops seemed to have solved the can’t-win-more-than-two-games-in-a-row problem they were having last month. Ohio Wesleyan is free and clear of the NCAC including a season sweep of Wooster. In a year of chaos, Ohio Wesleyan may have found some stability at just the right time of the year.

19 – Whitworth (Down 3)
I thought Whitworth would roll through the rest of the conference schedule. I know Whitman was going to be tough, but to get blown out and not score 50 points?! Didn’t see that coming. Whitworth doesn’t seem to have a great strength of schedule this season, so they have to be careful and win the automatic bid. Losing to Whitman will only fuel hopes from those below that Whitworth is ripe for the taking. Down a couple of spots… because I am worried.

20 – Elmhurst (Down 1)
I tried to move Elmhurst down further, but I just couldn’t justify putting them behind those who are below them. Elmhurst looks like they forgot to stay focused. I know Wheaton is a good team and have mentioned the CCIW is really tough this year, but you don’t beat good teams and then drop one on the road at Wheaton. The road doesn’t get easier. North Park, North Central, and Illinois Wesleyan to wrap up the regular season – tread lightly Blue Jays or you are going to get your wings clipped.

21 – Catholic* (Up 4)
I know Catholic is on a good run right now, but I can’t move them that high up the Top 25. They have a weak SOS, apparently, and they have a looming game against Scranton* this week (if they don’t get trapped by Goucher* mid-week). I will get the chance to see the Cardinals again this week and compare them to the beginning of the season. Then, maybe, I can decide if I am smart to leave them in this range of the Top 25 or if I am low-balling them.

22 – Wooster (Down 8)
Bad time to hit a rut. The Fighting Scots have lost three of their last four and seem to be struggling when we are used to them dominating. They have probably played themselves out of controlling the NCAC tournament and could be in deeper trouble if they don’t right the ship soon. I even debated about dropping Wooster all-together, but I honestly didn’t have anyone whose resume seemed better than Wooster’s right now.

23 – New York Univ.* (Down 8)
The challenge in the UAA is going to be summed up best by the Violets and the next two on my ballot. Beat the tough team, lose to the worse teams, all on the road. Once again New York Univ. beat Emory, but once again NYU couldn’t beat Rochester. The challenge for me: I have seen NYU in person – they are darn good. The problem is I see a loss to Rochester (who has won four in a row and is tied for second with practically everyone else in the conference) and I scratch my head. It may simply come down to match-ups, but NYU has put themselves in a position where they may be too far down the regional rankings in a weak East to earn themselves an at-large bid. If they do get into the tournament, they could be one of the deep sleepers to watch out for.

24 – Washington Univ.* (Down 2)
The only reason the Bears are not out of my Top 25 ballot: they have only lost four games and they do have a very difficult SOS. Once again, Washington Univ. lost a game they shouldn’t have lost (Carnegie Mellon) and once again they beat the tougher opponent and did it handily (Case Western Reserve). There is plenty of inconsistency with the Bears, but they are playing a dangerous game. If they don’t win the UAA automatic bid (regular season title), they could end up being stuck behind a lot of good Central Region teams and get left out of the NCAA Tournament. At some point, WashU has to beat the teams they should be beating to leave themselves some wiggle room.

25 – Chicago* (Down 5)
I could almost write the same thing for WashU here for the Maroons. Believe it or not, Chicago leads the UAA – which is clearly the toughest conference in the country this year – but they once again lost a game that just doesn’t make sense. Maybe the talk the Maroons are actually a year away from being potentially a world beater are correct, but the pre-season coach’s poll also predicted Chicago would win the conference. That last part also appears to be correct. However, the only reason I moved Chicago this far down and behind WashU (despite a head-to-head win over the Bears)… six total losses for Chicago. They definitely can’t afford to lose any more games and need that AQ to make sure they make the tournament. Playing with fire in a city that has a love/hate relationship with flames.

Dropped out:

Franklin & Marshall (Previously 23)
It’s one thing to lost to a red hot Johns Hopkins teams, but to lose on the road to Washington is not good enough. I know the Diplomats struggle with Washington, especially on the road (lost to the Shoremen four of the last six years), but this season is one of those times you have to figure it out. You also can’t lose to Washington when you just lost to JHU. This is now two two-game losing streaks in seven games and it doesn’t get any easier: Ursinus, Muhlenberg, Gettysburg, and Dickinson. Buckle up F&M fans – this is going to be a very interested finish to the season.

Previous ballots:
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9

Dave’s Top 25 ballot: Week 9

To be honest, I decided to make it a little easier on myself this week. I realized there were plenty of losses (yet again – 12 in my ballot alone) this week, but I thought maybe I was over-thinking things recently. Maybe, just maybe, I was making the Top 25 process too complicated of late. So, I decided to go with my gut a bit more.

The results? I certainly didn’t take six hours on my ballot this time. I probably took an hour. Now, that doesn’t add in the time I think about it during the week and especially on the weekend. I might be in my car heading to or from a game and be contemplating how Wooster’s loss to Ohio Wesleyan … or Wabash … or both … affects my ballot. I might be sitting on the couch watching TV with my wife when the debate over how to deal with NYU’s split of the weekend enters my head. However, the amount of time I sat down with a pencil, pad, D3hoops.com info packet (printed), in front of my computer was only an hour this week.

Oh, the results? I made some definite moves up and down on my ballot. I took two teams out. For the first time this year a team made it back on to my ballot (two actually). But all and all… it is what it is.

I’ve said it before and I will continue to say it. This is a tough year to be a Top 25 voter. There is just so much parity, it seems, in men’s basketball this season. There is just one undefeated team (Marietta) in the country right now. Whereas on the women’s side there are five with at least three probably making the post-season undefeated. No guarantees Marietta can do that. However, as Rusty Eggen said on the Hoopsville Marathon last Thursday: it might be tough for voters, but it is great for Division III. He’s right. So while I suck up and deal and vote accordingly, you better make sure you are enjoying this season. It is well worth the price of admission (if the school even charges in the first place).

As always before we begin, here is a look at last week’s ballot:

1 – St. Thomas
2 – UW-Whitewater
3 – Augustana
4 – Marietta
5 – Randolph-Macon
6 – Chapman
7 – WPI
8 – Babson
9 – Wooster
10 – Dickinson
11 – St. Norbert
12 – Albertus Magnus
13 – Emory
14 – Virginia Wesleyan
15 – New York Univ.
16 – St. John Fisher
17 – Whitworth
18 – Washington Univ.
19 – Elmhurst
20 – William Paterson
21 – Chicago
22 – Johns Hopkins
23 – Illinois Wesleyan
24 – Franklin & Marshall
25 – Case Western Reserve

And now on to this week’s ballot with some explanations for some of the moves:

1 – St. Thomas (Unchanged)

2 – UW-Whitewater (Unchanged)

3 – Marietta (Up 1)

4 – Randolph-Macon* (Up 1)

5 – Babson (Up 3)

6 – Augustana (Down 3)
In hindsight, I probably should have moved the Vikings a little further down the poll after losing to North Park. Augustana has lost two of their last four after all. However, they are also playing in the CCIW which is one of the top two conferences this season. They also lost to a team at the bottom of their conference, on the road, who also beat North Central and Carthage in the midst of a three-game winning streak. Augustana is probably the best team in the CCIW (despite two losses), but they need to tighten their belt buckles and focus at the job at hand or the CCIW will ding them a few more times and that will keep the Vikings from enjoying any home court advantage in the NCAA tournament which will mean an earlier than expected departure in March.

7 – Dickinson (Up 3)

8 – St. Norbert (Up 3)

9 – WPI* (Down 2)
If you were surprised WPI lost to Springfield on the road, you aren’t paying attention to the NEWMAC. The top of the conference with Babson, WPI, MIT, and Springfield is tough – remember Springfield won the conference tournament last year allowing for four teams to get into the NCAA tournament (where they all laid an egg on the first Friday night) [Edit: MIT actually beat Springfield in the conference championship. My mistake. MIT’s win actually got a fourth team into the NCAA tournament]. Charlie Brock versus Chris Bartley, with the talent they both have on their teams, is an outstanding coaching match-up. I was actually watching the game while PA announcing because I didn’t want to miss it. WPI is good and they are losing games I am not surprised they are losing (especially since they are close).

10 – Virginia Wesleyan (Up 4)

11 – Albertus Magnus (Up 1)
I know. I have stated several times that the Falcons were not going to move higher than 12th on my ballot. That was their ceiling. I knew the moment I wrote their names into the 11th slot I was going to need to explain this. The explanation is actually pretty simple and has nothing to do with the Falcons (sorry): I was moving other teams around and didn’t have a team I felt comfortable putting in the 11 slot… so I moved AMC up one spot.

12 – Chapman (Down 6)
You had to know the moment I bought in to a team like Chapman they would have a rough week. Losing two games to Cal Lutheran (13-4) and Pomona-Pitzer (6-12) was tough. If the loss had been just to Cal Lutheran, not a big deal. After all, Chapman, Cal Lutheran, and Claremont-Mudd-Scripps were expected to be the class of the SCIAC this season and were all worthy of Top 25 consideration even in the preseason. But the loss to Pomona-Pitzer, especially as the second of the two losses, is the rough one. Chapman is a pretty good team. You only hope the players learned a lesson from the results and don’t let the wheels fall off.

13 – St. John Fisher (Up 3)

14 – Emory (Down 1)
I’m not going to knock Emory for their loss on the road to New York Univ.* that much. First off, it was on the road in one of the tougher places to play. Second, it was the Sunday game which can be the toughest game to play on the road in the UAA. Third, it was NYU. Fourth, Emory actually came from pretty far down late in the game to nearly pull off the comeback win. Emory seemed to have played well from what I was watching while hosting Hoopsville that afternoon. Not going to ding Emory for that loss too much. (By the way, Emory plays five of their last seven games at home including NYU, Wash U*, and Chicago* – home cooking could be pretty good!)

15 – Whitworth (Up 2)

16 – Wooster (Down 7)
Losing for the second time this season to Ohio Wesleyan is one thing. Losing to Wabash, a team you beat by 29 points earlier in the season, is unacceptable. I know Wabash is a decent team (12-7) and I know the game was on the road. But a Top 25 team doesn’t lose the second game in a row to a team to a team they should beat handily. For some reason Ohio Wesleyan has Wooster’s number (season sweep), but Wabash had lost three in a row including Oberlin (8-11) and Wittenberg* (7-12). No excuses. I probably should have punished Wooster more… but it was a road game, I told myself.

17 – New York Univ.* (Down 2)
I would have moved the Violets ahead of Emory thanks to their win, but the loss to Rochester on Friday is a problem. I realize that Rochester is probably better than their record indicates and they are certainly well coached, but the Yellow Jackets were at the bottom of the UAA coming into that game with just one conference win (Carnegie Mellon) and the game as a HOME game for NYU! Where they looking ahead to Emory on Sunday? Where they dismissing the challenge Rochester could pose? I have no idea, but if they were dismissing Rochester as a threat they haven’t paying attention to how the Yellow Jackets played at Chicago and at Wash U recently. Bad loss that at least was made up for by beating Emory on Sunday.

18 – Johns Hopkins* (Up 5)

19 – Elmhurst (Unchanged)
By my rankings the loss to Augustana was expected (you can’t punish a team you have ranked behind another if they lost in a head-to-head with the other team, right?). Elmhurst then beat Millikin the next game. The only reason I didn’t move Elmhurst up my ballot (since they lost by just four to Augustana) was because the Vikings then lost to North Park on Saturday. There is a trickle-down affect sometimes. Elmhurst didn’t move as a result of Augustana’s trickle-down.

20 – Chicago* (Up 1)

21 – Illinois Wesleyan (Up 1)

22 – Washington Univ.* (Down 4)
The Bears are not as good as the beginning of the season seemed to indicate. Remember this was the number one team in the country around Christmas! I am not saying Wash U isn’t a good team. We know they have one of the best coaches in the game, but they don’t have the experience or talent level we have grown accustomed to in St. Louis. To be honest, we probably fell for the smoke and mirrors a little because it was the beginning of seeing how much parity there is in basketball this season and they at least showed they could get some big wins. However, the conference has exposed them and if they didn’t find some sort of comeback in them on Sunday they would have been blown out yet again. One thing I am keeping in mind, though, when it comes to Wash U: they have lost three games this season all in conference and the UAA is probably the best conference in the country this season in terms of depth (with the CCIW also making a strong argument). The problem for Wash U is they can’t afford to take many more losses or they are going to be deep in the regional rankings making it difficult to get to the table for an at-large bid.

23 – Franklin & Marshall* (Up 1)

24 – Ohio Wesleyan (Unranked)
Welcome back to the Top 25, Battling Bishops. How will you disappoint me now? I am just kidding. No team is disappoint this season, but Ohio Wesleyan is the first of two teams to reenter my Top 25 ballot this season. The win over Wooster certainly was a statement win (including the fact they swept the Scots this season). Though, the close win to Hiram certainly gave me pause. But I went with my gut on this one. On paper, the Battling Bishops don’t have a very hard finish to the season which means for the first time in a long time the NCAC tournament may have to go through Delaware, Ohio!

25 – Catholic* (Unranked)
I have been apprehensive about the Cardinals for several weeks. I wasn’t blown away with Catholic at the beginning of the season. They played okay at the Hoopsville Classic and then lost to DeSales* and St. Vincent – not games they should be losing. But since the loss to the Bearcats, Catholic has rattled off 11 straight victories and have had some dominating wins in that stretch (including by 40 to Moravian Saturday). Maybe Steve Howes has his team clicking at just the right time. Well until maybe February 11 when Catholic has to travel to Goucher – my alma mater. Maybe the Gophers will finally rise up and beat their “rival” for the second time in two seasons. Eh… never mind.

Dropped out:

William Paterson (Previously 20)
I am not going to repeat what I said on Sunday’s Hoopsville except to paraphrase: I don’t think the NJAC is as great as the coaches in the conference thinks it is. There are certainly some good teams and the bottom is closer to the top than many conferences, but there aren’t any great teams in this conference. Take for example the fact William Paterson lost to Richard Stockton who had just lost to TCNJ three nights prior. I know they all have good records, but WP had to make a statement with the game against Stockton and instead lost at home in a game that would have put the Pioneers firmly in control of the conference lead.

Case Western Reserve (Previously 25)
I previously stated that the UAA was probably the best conference in the country this year, so seeing the Spartans lose on the road to Chicago and then come back to beat Wash U wasn’t surprising. And because of those results, like Emory and NYU, I probably shouldn’t have pulled them out of my Top 25. However, they have now lost two of the last four and I had them in the 25th slot – the bubble. I can’t keep them in the bubble spot, even if they are tied for the top of the UAA, if they have lost two in as many weeks. Case Western Reserve is the story of the UAA this season (and there are many stories), but the rematch with Chicago and Wash U this weekend at home is going to be the key to their season.

Previous ballots:

Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8

Dave’s Top 25 ballot: Week 7

At this point, I am no longer surprised when I see countless losses to breakdown in the Top 25 this week. In the overall D3hoops.com Top 25, there were 13 total losses; in my Top 25 ballot, there were 11 – I consider myself lucky!

Clearly, parity is the name of the game this season. There simply isn’t a top tier that is impressing, there isn’t a middle group that is stepping up, and there are a number of those below that who are sending up flares to get recognized (only to sometimes have those flares snuffed out by a strange loss). It is hard to read the tea leaves this season and thus it is even harder to feel comfortable when compiling a Top 25 ballot.

This week, I removed one team – just one. However, I made a lot of moves inside the other 24 teams. When I was done, I wasn’t satisfied. I thought about blowing the entire thing up and starting over, but then realized I would probably still have the same teams in and out of the poll and I still wouldn’t be satisfied. So, I stuck with what I had and will wait to see what the next week brings.

Before showing you this week’s ballot, here is a reminder of last week’s:

1 – St. Thomas
2 – Augustana
3 – UW-Whitewater
4 – Washington U.
5 – Babson
6 – Emerson
7 – Randolph-Macon
8 – WPI
9 – Dickinson
10 – North Central (Ill.)
11 – Wooster
12 – Albertus Magnus
13 – Virginia Wesleyan
14 – Ohio Wesleyan
15 – Marietta
16 – Chicago
17 – Franklin & Marshall
18 – St. Olaf
19 – Richard Stockton
20 – St. Norbert
21 – Chapman
22 – UW-Stevens Point
23 – Husson
24 – Scranton
25 – Illinois Wesleyan

And now on to this week’s ballot with some explanations for some of the moves:

1 – St. Thomas (Unchanged)

2 – Augustana (Unchanged)

3 – UW-Whitewater (Unchanged)

4 – Washington U. (Unchanged)

5 – Randolph-Macon* (Up 2)
I cringed a little when I moved the Yellow Jackets up to number five. They just don’t seem like a Top 5 team, but then again who does?! RMC moves up thanks certainly to teams ahead of them losing, but also because they blew out their rivals Hampden-Sydney* on the road and then blew out Roanoke. Clearly, the Yellow Jackets are in sync right now.

6 – WPI* (Up 2)
Nice bounce back by the Engineers to brush off the loss to MIT and beat Babson the next game (and keeping from being the answer to a trivia question: what team lost back-to-back games to coaches who earned their 300th career wins in those games?). The NEWMAC is a really tough league this year, so maybe the Engineers take another loss or two before the end of the season making number six seem a bit high. However, I think WPI has more weapons than people give them credit, they play far better defense than others think, and they are well coached. I just like WPI – what can I say?

7 – Babson (Down 2)
Two spot drop for a loss to another Top 10 team seemed a bit harsh at first, but I needed to get the Beavers behind WPI who needed to stay behind RMC. So here we are. I am not reading too much into Babson’s loss other than it was against one of those favored to win the NEWMAC and the top of the conference is really, really good this season.

8 – Wooster (Up 3)
Yeah… this one makes me nervous. Nothing Wooster has done this season screams they are a Top 10 team to me. However, they blew out Hiram and won in an offensive slugfest with their rival Wittenberg proving they can put up points if they need. A frustrated DePauw squad is on the horizon, so who knows what happens this week, but for now the Fighting Scots are in my Top 10.

9 – Marietta (Up 6)
The biggest mover upward were the Pioneers this week – I even thought about moving them ahead of Wooster. Why? They are undefeated and that is a point I need to stop ignoring. They have also thoroughly handled their opponents recently as they should! Mount Union (who just beat John Carroll) is on the schedule for this week, so we can get a good sense of maybe how good Marietta is this season with that outcome.

10 – Virginia Wesleyan (Up 3)
I wouldn’t say the Marlins did anything specific to move into the Top 10. I would say that part of the movement was to fill in spots of teams who didn’t have a very good week last week. This could be short-lived as well as VWC plays Randolph-Macon (away) and Lynchburg* (home) this week. Or, Dave Macedo’s team will once again prove they are under-appreciated by many.

11 – Dickinson (Down 2)
This might come as a surprise that I didn’t move the Red Devils further down for their loss to Johns Hopkins, but there are several factors at play here. First, Hopkins has won ten straight and may finally be playing at pre-season expectations. Second, a number of teams in this section of the poll loss causing a bit of a cushion. Third, I wasn’t moving teams like Albertus Magnus ahead of them. Many have said this Dickinson team is ranked too high because they aren’t as good as last year’s team. While I might agree, someone has to fill in these slots and so far the Red Devils are playing good enough basketball to be this high on the ballot.

12 – Albertus Magnus (Unchanged)

13 – Chicago* (Up 3)
Home court is so important for everyone; it is even more important if you are in the UAA. Chicago held home-court very nicely this weekend with wins over Rochester and Emory and in the process may have shown they have figured out their point guard situation after their best player was lost to injury at the beginning of the season. The Maroons were picked to win the UAA this season and right now are undefeated with wins over Wash U., Rochester, and Emory all at home. The challenge ahead: not only Case Western Reserve who is playing very well, but the fact the Maroons still have to play Wash U., Rochester, and Emory on the road.

14 – Emory (Down 8)
I didn’t want to knock the Eagles that much for losing on the road to Wash U. and Chicago since all three teams plus Case Western Reserve are clearly the best in this conference this season. However, I had to move Emory behind Chicago and there was only so high I was willing to move the Maroons. Call it bad luck to have to be on the road your first three games at some of the toughest places to play in the conference, but Emory now has visits to Rochester, Wash U., and Chicago behind them. They do have a big challenge at home against Case Western Reserve (who voters can gauge as well this weekend), but I am confident the Eagles will regain their mojo at home in the coming weeks.

15 – North Central (Ill.) (Down 5)
When I moved the Cardinals up swiftly last week and knew they had Augustana and Elmhurst on the schedule for the week ahead, I would be lying if I didn’t say I was nervous I was too bold in my move. Boy did that come true. The loss to Augustana could be considered expected since they were behind Augie in both the D3hoops.com poll and my own ballot. However, I thought they would prove themselves against Elmhurst but instead lost both games at home. Tough week to be sure and while Carthage and North Park don’t seem like world beaters in the week ahead, another tough week could all but sink North Central at a very important stretch of the season.

16 – St. Olaf (Up 2)

17 – St. Norbert (Up 3)

18 – Chapman (Up 3)

19 – Ohio Wesleyan (Down 5)
The enigma that is the Battling Bishops continues. They lost to Wabash on Wednesday and then beat DePauw handily on Saturday. I just can’t get a good read on Ohio Wesleyan. We all know Mike DeWitt is a good coach. We all know that Ohio Wesleyan has proven themselves with their wins this season. We just don’t know how to read into their losses and thus the rest of the NCAC or Great Lakes Region. Oberlin and Denison are ahead and any loss here will mean to me this team can’t put 40 minutes together every night and are not a Top 25 team. Two wins? Not sure what that means, yet.

20 – UW-Stevens Point (Up 2)

21 – Franklin & Marshall* (Down 4)
No, I am not surprised the Diplomats finally lost a game. No, I am not surprised they lost at McDaniel* (many saw this coming). No, I didn’t consider dropping F&M out of my Top 25 (despite the fact I wasn’t sold on them at 17, either). The trick here is this… who ever watches the game tape to see what Kevin Curley and his Green Terror squad did to the Diplomats is going to have a very good game plan to work with. I am not sure F&M is seasoned or experienced enough to adjust to what clearly worked and they will probably see a lot more of defensively. Also, F&M has got to figure out how to win outside of the Mayser Center. Those who know the Diplomats program know they are tough to beat at home, but when you get them on the road especially in conference play they are vulnerable. This week they are on the road at Dickinson and a tough Haverford squad… time will tell.

22 – Husson* (Up 1)

23 – Illinois Wesleyan (Up 2)

24 – St. John Fisher (Unranked)
What is in the water in Pittsford, New York? I had a coach in the East Region tell me a few weeks back that the Cardinals were the best team he had seen in New York. Maybe that isn’t saying a whole lot since this isn’t exactly the season of stellar play anywhere in the country, but it stuck with me. I focused a bit on St. John Fisher to see what come of that statement. SJF has pretty much handled any team they have seen on the court. The Cardinals are winning by double-figures usually and just put up 102 points on Hartwick beating them by 37! Who knows what is in the water, but right now it as the Cardinals flying high.

25 – Case Western Reserve (Unranked)
I’d be lying if I didn’t tell you I think the Spartans are on my ballot just a little bit early. Call it the NYU affect: play really well in the non-conference part of your season while not playing too many good teams and start the season on a roll only to jump into conference play and fall apart. The difference so far in this plan: Case Western Reserve is 3-0 in UAA action. Now granted, the Spartans have played Carnegie Mellon, NYU, and Brandeis – not exactly the top of the conference – and needed overtime to beat the Judges, but I do like what I am seeing so far. Of course, Emory and Rochester this weekend before Chicago and Wash U the following weekend ALL on the road. This could either be a very brief visit on my ballot or could be confirmation of a really special team at CWR this season.

Dropped out:

Richard Stockton* (Previously 19)
When I first submitted my ballot, Richard Stockton was 24. While writing this blog, I got to the Osprey and was nearly done writing when something changed my mind. The result: I dropped them. Why? The high-wire act is not something a Top 25 team should be performing. Last Monday, that act finally caught up to Richard Stockton when I watched them lose to Ramapo at home in a rather uninspired performance. How did the Osprey respond? By barely getting passed Montclair State two days later. I know the NJAC likes to talk about how difficult the conference is especially that the bottom teams are better than people know. However, the top of this conference is not as good as those in the NJAC would like you to believe and Stockton is proving that right now. They have been on a high-wire for a while and have not looked good in the last few weeks. They have escaped time and time again with wins before Ramapo got them. If Stockton is truly a Top 25 team, they would handle teams they should be head-and-shoulders above. Otherwise, they are a good team but not a Top 25 squad.

Scranton* (Previously 24)
Speaking of another team that has been performing on the high-wire, it’s the Royals. Scranton has also apparently been playing without a net. According to what I learned, they lost their number one guy Ross Danzig to a severe ankle injury (severity unconfirmed) seconds into their overtime loss to Ithaca though he was back against Catholic*. If Scranton is a Top 25 team, they should have easily handled Ithaca and then beat the Cardinals. It marked just the third time in the last 18 games CUA has beaten Scranton. If Danzig’s injury plagues him, Scranton is in a lot of trouble. While they don’t necessarily have a true point guard, Danzig is their leader and can be dangerous from outside. I liked Scranton for a while this season, but once again I don’t think the Royals are capable of putting it together for an entire season.
(Edit: I have since been told Ross Danzig did NOT get injured this past week. I apologize for any confusion to the contrary. This is an example of how hard it is to follow teams night in and night out. His alleged injury wasn’t the reason Scranton came out of the poll – two losses were the reasons – but the concern over his injury I thought was something that could be a challenge down the road. Since he isn’t injured, the fact they are struggling and have been playing on a high-wire is more concerning from a team point of view.)

Previous ballots:
Week 5
Week 6

* – seen in person this season.

Dave’s Top 25 ballot: Week 12

Parity… it has to be parity. Twelve teams in the D3hoops.com Top 25, including mine, lost a game in the last week. Eighteen teams receiving votes by voters lost a game. It has to be parity. What else could explain why this late in the season trying to figure out where teams fit on a Top 25 ballot is still a head-scratching experience.

Illinois Wesleyan moved into #2 on Dave’s ballot, but whether they stay there will depend on whether they can finish the CCIW campaign undefeated after their tussle with North Central.

This week, because of the number of teams that lost from top to bottom, some teams didn’t really shift that much on my ballot. Teams moved up and down, but only one made a dramatic move (Rose-Hulman) and once again I was thinking about who I should have in the last five spots.

So with just one ballot left until the NCAA tournament begins (and two total), here is this week’s version:

1 – St. ThomasUnchanged

2 – Illinois WesleyanUp 2 spots
I am not sure if the Titans are the second best team in the country, but when everyone else doesn’t seem to want that distinction, the mantle passes to IWU. The Titans have a chance to be the first team since 1973 to get through the CCIW schedule undefeated if they can past North Central on Tuesday – but that game could also mean I am searching for another #2 next week.

3 – Hampden-SydneyDown 1 spot
I still think the Tigers are a team that could make a serious run in the NCAA tournament despite their loss this week. Of course their loss was at home, but it was to an always tough Virginia Wesleyan team that used the game to wrestle the regular season title away from the Tigers. Considering there will be no home court advantage in the ODAC tournament, I think Hampden-Sydney has the best chance to win the conference title.

4 – AmherstUp 3 spots
I stated on Hoopsville that I even after the triple overtime win over Middlebury I didn’t think the Lord Jeffs were a top five team. However, I also admitted that Amherst could move into the top five simply because of the number of teams that loss. I think Amherst is a really good team, but they have some things that give me concern on whether they can make a significant run in the NCAA tournament – similar concerns that cost them a deeper run last year. Let’s see if they prove me wrong in March.

5 – WPIUnchanged
The Engineers lost to MIT on the road, but held onto the top seed in the NEWMAC thanks to a double-digit rally against Clark. The only two losses for WPI came back-to-back against Springfield and MIT on the road in what might a testament to just how tough the NEWMAC has been than any weakness of WPI may have. Thanks to those already discussed losses by other teams, moving WPI down didn’t make any sense.

6 – MiddleburyDown 3 spots
The Panthers made an great comeback on Amherst, but were the victims of an incredible purposely missed free throw put back to force a third overtime which they would eventually lose. I was chatting with Pat Coleman during the game that if Middlebury won, I would consider keeping them at #3. I also stated that if they lost, I could move them down to where Amherst was. Well, they are a spot above where Amherst was on my ballot last week and I am fine with that. The Panthers are a good team, but like Amherst I think they have some flaws that could cost them a significant run in the NCAA tournament. And like Amherst, let’s see if they prove me wrong.

7 – CatholicUp 1 spot
I saw the Cardinals for the fourth of fifth time in person this week and once again they reminded me why I feel so confident in their squad. They came back from a loss to Scranton with a beatdown of my alma mater, despite the game not starting all that well (Goucher can force that in teams this year). In fact, they were playing so well in the second half, I swear Coach Steve Howes was using the opportunity to practice different offensive and defensive looks they made need in March. Now they have a chance at their first Landmark Conference championship title and first NCAA tournament appearance since 2007 – their last year in the CAC.

8 – WhitworthUp 1 spot

9 – North Central (Ill.)Up 2 spots

10 – RochesterDown 4 spots
Have the Yellowjackets peaked too early? They had a two-game lead in the UAA, three games over Wash U., at the beginning of the month. Now they have to beat Emory to win the UAA. Should they lose, they will finish in a three-way tie at the top of the conference and will lose in the tie-breaker. They have lost two of the last three including Sunday’s six point loss at home to now 12-12 Case Western Reserve – ending a 35 game winning streak at the Palestra. Sometimes a loss near the end of the season is the perfect kick in the butt for a team, but you would have thought that loss would have been at Wash U. last week.

11 – St. Mary’s (Md.)Down 1 spot

12 – CalvinUp 2 spots

13 – UW-Stevens PointUp 2 spots

14 – WoosterDown 1 spot

15 – RamapoDown 3 spots
The Roadrunners are once again making me wonder what is going on. Yes, William Patterson is a good team, but they aren’t world-beaters. You would have thought Ramapo would have given the conference a message by beating the Pioneers and maybe set up the NJAC tournament up a bit differently. Instead, they will have to face the Pioneers in the conference semifinals Tuesday. They have lost both games this season to William Patterson and if they don’t want to find themselves on a fragile bubble they better figure out how to actually beat the Pioneers.

16 – Rhode IslandUnchanged

17 – WilliamsUp 1 spot

18 – Wheaton (Ill.)Up 1 spot

19 – UW-WhitewaterUp 2 spots

20 – MITUp 3 spots
The Engineers are back in the conversation thanks to winning eight straight games including a win at home against WPI. They still don’t have two of their top players from last year’s team back from injury, but Will Tashman has stepped up with the rest of this teammates, like Michael Kates, and has become the first MIT player with 1000+ points and 1000+ rebounds in his career. They may be a team to watch out for in the NCAA tournament because they aren’t going to be nervous.

21 – Cortland StateDown 1 spot

22 – Rose-HulmanDown 5 spots
Man, did the Engineers lose a bad game or what? Granted, Earlham finished the week with a two-game winning streak, but they were 2-21 entering the game against Rose-Hulman. The Engineers did win on Saturday and will host the HCAC tournament – which they won on the road last year. I wasn’t going to take Rose-Hulman out of my rankings for the loss to Earlham, but I certainly thought long and hard about doing it.

23 – Virginia WesleyanUnranked
Last time I put the Marlins back in my poll, I said it looked like they might have righted the ship… then they lost. So, I do put them back in my poll while knowing they could easily loss in the ODAC tournament despite being the top seed. However, a win on the road against Hampden-Sydney to take the top seed away from the Tigers along with winning six straight and 12 of the last 14 while battling through the ODAC is worth noting.

24 – AlverniaUnranked
The more I talk to different coaches in the Mid-Atlantic, the more Alvernia’s name keeps popping up. Many coaches think they are one of the best teams in the region. They won the MAC-Commonwealth regular season title by two games over crosstown rival Albright and beat a pretty good Lycoming team this past week. The road to the NCAA Tournament will go through this Reading, Penn. gym and not the other, so I like the Crusaders chances.

25 – HobartUnranked
Coach Mike Neer is proving again he can get a team rolling at just the right time of the year. They have won 11 straight and dominated the Liberty League. While they may not have the strongest out of conference schedule, they also didn’t exactly have the strongest schedule last year before nearly getting to the Sweet 16.

Dropped out:

Washington Univ. (Mo.)#22 last week
The Bears just can’t figure out road games! They loss to a decent NYU team in a game they shouldn’t have lost on the road Friday night. They certainly rebounded well on Sunday against Brandeis, but the damage was already done. I appreciate the abilities this Wash U. team has and the schedule they have played and I realize they are in a good position in the regional rankings to probably make the NCAA tournament as a potential Pool C bid, but I just don’t have any confidence they can make any type of run in the NCAA tournament.

Wesley#24 last week
The Wolverines are a pretty good team, but they already knew Salisbury had beaten St. Mary’s earlier in the week so you would have thought they would be ready for the Seagulls in the last game of the season. Wesley is now 2-2 in the last four losing to the other top teams in the CAC and after winning 11 straight games I wonder if like Rochester they peaked too early.

Old Westbury#25 last week
I realize it was the Panthers first loss since NYU on Decemeber 5th and it was their first loss at home, but it was to now 13-12 Sage and would have meant an undefeated season in the Skyline Conference. I think maybe the Panthers were looking ahead. I like how Old Westbury has played and overcome many adversaries this year, but they have to stay focused. And when you are already at the bottom of my ballot, one loss will usually cause you to slip out.

Dave’s Top 25 ballot: Week 11

Hampden-Sydney is a team Dave thinks is very under rated and his biggest ballot move was placing the Tigers at #2.

I mentioned last week it seemed voting in the Top 25 seemed to be getting harder, more challenging as the season progressed on. Usually it gets a bit easier as the top teams cement themselves a bit and you are only making some adjustments. This past week proved that this season is wide open and as Pat Coleman said on Hoopsville Sunday night this could lead to a very fun national tournament this year.

Of the 25 teams on my previous ballot, seven teams lost nine games with four of those teams and five of those losses happening in my top six. As a result, there is some major adjustments at the top of my ballot and not the bottom, for a change.

This was rivalry week with almost everyone playing an arch-rival, so I did consider that major fact while looking at some losses and wins this past week.

1 – St. ThomasUp 1 spot
In the matter of three weeks, the Tommies have moved out of the top spot on my ballot and then back. They have moved past their lone loss and looking like one of the toughest teams in the country.

2 – Hampden-SydneyUp 6 spots
I have stated numerous times that I think the Tigers are the most underrated team in the country. They play in one of the toughest conferences in the country and seem to be putting their foot down emphatically. They trounced their arch-rival, Randolph-Macon, on the road to sweep the season series for the first time in years. And when you look at the SOS numbers, they are impressive. Ahead they have a major clash with Virginia Wesleyan coming up Wednesday in which the Tigers could clinch the ODAC regular season crown.

3 – MiddleburyUp 2 spots
Middlebury may be a bit overrated at #3, but with so many teams losing in this part of the ballot, they simply migrated up the poll. I didn’t feel comfortable placing the Panthers #2 because of the number of close games and their one-point win over Williams now looks less interesting with Amherst looming on Tuesday night.

4 – Illinois WesleyanUp 4 spots
Last week I said the Titans would probably have to win the CCIW to crack my top five, but thanks to numerous losses ahead of them and another dominating week in the CCIW, they have moved up accordingly. The only test left for an undefeated conference season is North Central on the road… if they don’t overlook Millikin first.

5 – WPIDown 3 spots
Almost everyone was waiting for the Engineers to lose their first game and it never seemed to be coming until Springfield got the job done Sunday afternoon. Springfield is having a good season and has a win against Amherst on their resume as well, so losing to the Pride on the road isn’t a shock. Now whether it was the delay thanks to an historic blizzard or just playing in a tough place, WPI has to right the ship quickly since they have MIT and Clark on the road to finish.

6 – RochesterDown 2 spots
We know the UAA is a tough conference mainly because of the travel required, so we shouldn’t have been surprised that Rochester couldn’t stay undefeated in the conference. But Rochester is now 2-2 in the last two weekends and is holding on to a one game lead in the conference with three to play. And the team behind them, Wash U, dominated Rochester in St. Louis which you hope doesn’t mean Rochester peaked too soon.

7 – AmherstUp 3 spots
The Lord Jeffs had already thumped their arch-rival Williams in a game a couple of weeks ago, but when they did the same thing, holding the Ephs to 48 points at home, it made me notice. It was Amherst’s only game of the week, but they are now on top of the conference with an important battle with Middlebury coming up.

8 – CatholicDown 2 spots
The Cardinals losing on the road to Scranton shouldn’t be too surprising, except at times it isn’t clear what Scranton team will show up on the floor. Catholic did have to come from 20 points down to within 2, but couldn’t pull off the victory. The match-up is a bit of a rivalry, so I wasn’t going to bring them down the poll too far.

9 – WhitworthDown 8 spots
Two losses probably would have resulted in a further slide down the poll if not for the number of losses by others and the fact that some of the teams below the Pirates didn’t seem like top ten teams. However, the loss to George Fox at home does give me great pause since this conference didn’t seem to be that big a challenge.

10 – St. Mary’s (Md.)Up 3 spots
I am not sure the Seahawks are a top ten team, but they have migrated up thanks to a few factors: the number of losses my others and the fact they still have only loss two games this season (both to teams on my ballot). St. Mary’s has clearly played better than many expected especially since they don’t have any significant inside presence.

11 – North Central (Ill.)Up 4 spots
The Cardinals appear to be playing better basketball than a few weeks ago when they were dealing with injuries to their top three players. I probably would have moved North Central into my top ten, except that while they beat Augustana handily on the road they couldn’t do the same to Millikin on the road. They have a major game against Illinois Wesleyan this week that could change the landscape of the CCIW.

12 – RamapoDown 3 spots
Another loss in the NJAC is not what the Roadrunners need right now before the conference tournament. The loss was to the third place teams in the conference on the road, but Ramapo needs to avoid these losses if they want to be ready for post-season play.

13 – WoosterUp 4 spots
The Scots got through rivalry week with a win in overtime against Ohio Wesleyan and an easier win over Wittenberg. Wooster is a good team that just has to focus on all games and not forget what the goal is when playing teams like Wabash.

14 – Calvinunchanged
Here is where I took a rivalry game into mind. Calvin losses a close game on the road at Hope which probably shouldn’t have been that unexpected just based on the history in this rivalry. Plus the fact, you had to figure Hope wanted revenge for the embarrassment in the first game. I still think Calvin is a good team and shouldn’t fall because of the biggest rivalry in Division III.

15 – UW-Stevens PointDown 3 spots
The Pointers went 1-0 this past week, but their move downward is because they seem to be racked with injuries. I am not sure what has gotten them to this point in the season can allow them to hold on to the end.

16 – Rhode IslandUp 2 spots

17 – Rose-HulmanUp 3 spots

18 – WilliamsDown 7 spots
The Ephs got embarrassed on their own court by a team that has now embarrassed them twice this season. Yes, it was a rivalry game, but Hope showed they could show up at home against Calvin. Williams didn’t seem to show anything. The game was delayed several days because of the blizzard, but since it was at home that is less of an excuse in my book than a team that would have been on the road. It appears the Ephs were a little overrated in previous ballots.

19 – Wheaton (Ill.)
unchanged

20 – Cortland StateUp 1 spot

21 – UW-WhitewaterUp 1 spot

22 – Washington Univ.unranked
The win over Rochester told me that the Bears may have figured out whatever was wrong and are back on track – at least at home. I think Wash U. is a team to watch out for, but I still have questions on where their season is headed especially because they may have to hit the road in the NCAA tournament.

23 – MITunchanged

24 – Wesleyunchanged

25 – SUNY Old Westburyunchanged

Dropped out:

Christopher Newport#16 last week
The Captains are in a tail spin. They have lost three straight including to now 11-10 LaGrange on the road. Of course the previous two games were losses at home. I am not sure exactly what is wrong, but this is the worst time of the season to be dealing with a significant losing streak.