TAG | Oberlin
Cody Pohren and Pacific Lutheran benefited from the double losses in the MIAC. How?
PLU athletics file photo by John Froschauer
We’re down to a final week, with a number of teams left in contention unlike any we can remember. This week’s losses change how some of the teams line up in the pecking order for the seven at-large bids, and if you are new to this process in Division III football, this is your primer, your instruction manual, perhaps your Selection Sunday master class.
Keith and Pat talk about that and more in this week’s Around the Nation Podcast, sponsored by the City of Salem, hosts of Stagg Bowl XL. Tickets on sale now!
Plus there are a bunch of automatic bids left to be handed out, and some were handed out Saturday in interesting ways. We talk about what’s left to be decided as well, including the indecipherable mess that is the North Coast Athletic Conference. Pat and Keith talk about a lot of teams this week — check the tags at the bottom of this page to find out who is on the topics list.
Hit play below to listen, or subscribe to get this podcast on your phone or portable device.
You can subscribe to the Around the Nation Podcast in iTunes. You can also get this and any of our future Around the Nation podcasts automatically by subscribing to this RSS feed: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3football/?feed=podcast
Here’s this week’s D3football.com reports and highlight packages.
And this week’s photo galleries from our friends at d3photography.com:
- Baldwin Wallace vs. Mount Union
- UW-Whitewater vs. UW-Eau Claire
- Northwestern (Minn.) vs. Greenville
- Alma vs. Kalamazoo
Amherst · Baldwin-Wallace · Bethel · Bridgewater State · Cal Lutheran · Concordia-Moorhead · Cortland State · Delaware Valley · DePauw · Elmhurst · Framingham State · Franklin and Marshall · Hampden-Sydney · Hardin-Simmons · Heidelberg · Huntingdon · Linfield · Louisiana College · Lycoming · Mount Union · Muhlenberg · NCAA · North Central (Ill.) · Oberlin · Ohio Wesleyan · Pacific Lutheran · Pool C · Randolph-Macon · Rowan · Salve Regina · selection process · St. Olaf · St. Thomas · UW-Oshkosh · UW-Platteville · Wabash · Washington and Jefferson · Washington and Lee · Waynesburg · Wesley · Wheaton (Ill.) · Widener · Williams · Wittenberg
Three clashes between ranked teams take place this weekend, and a handful of other games involve undefeated schools. That gives us a lot to talk about and to look forward to on game day.
Conference races will be clarified, and, harder for some teams to swallow, playoff hopes will erode.
Pat Coleman, Keith McMillan and Ryan Tipps bring you a rundown of some of these make-’em or break-’em matchups. And, as always, we welcome comments from readers. Give us your perspective on games we missed or predictions you think we have backwards. We want to hear from you.
Game of the Week.
Ryan’s take: No. 7 Wheaton at Illinois Wesleyan. What I love about the CCIW is how it’s more than just an impressively strong conference, it’s also an unpredictable one. Three different teams have been in the playoffs the past two seasons, and two of those teams are currently undefeated Wheaton and Illinois Wesleyan. Both come into Saturday playing a so-so nonconference slate that leaves many questions to be sorted out. Is IWU as strong against the pass as they seem? Will Wheaton bring more to the table than just offense? It’s a game worth watching — and watching closely.
Keith’s take: No. 13 Redlands at No. 20 Cal Lutheran: Based on their non-conference results against North Central, Linfield and Pacific Lutheran, I’m bullish on the SCIAC powers. If the Kingsmen defend the brand new turf at William Rolland Stadium, it could be a boon for the conference. Two playoff bids could be in the offing. Wins at East Texas Baptist and against Whitworth weren’t enough for Redlands to overcome a 24-22 loss to CLU last season. But an 8-1 finish this year with a win against North Central, assuming the Cardinals finish strong, should get the Bulldogs in. If they win in Thousand Oaks, of course, they’ll be the front-runner for the automatic bid and not chasing an at-large. More on this game in ATN.
Pat’s take: No. 19 Louisiana College at No. 4 Mary-Hardin Baylor. I think these teams are much closer together than their 15 spots’ distance in the rankings suggests. I would favor Louisiana College at home, would think about it on a neutral field, and would not be at all surprised if the Wildcats pulled off the road win. The tests have been getting better for Louisiana College in the past week but the issue in my mind is whether they can protect the ball.
Surprisingly close game.
Ryan’s take: Guilford at Washington and Lee. The Quakers are standing with just a 1-2 record, but that’s not because teams have been able to run all over them. And that’s what W&L does: Run. A lot. And then some more. Best of all for Guilford is that they should be able to respond and put some points on the board, keeping this matchup against the defending ODAC champion within reach.
Keith’s take: Mount St. Joseph at Franklin. The Grizzlies have become the face of the HCAC, and get the national attention. They’re even one of the best at filing D3Reports. The Lions’ 3-0 start, however, has barely been mentioned. So allow me to rectify that. Beating Wilmington, Anderson and Bluffton isn’t overwhelming, but they’ve done it by rushing for 246 yards a game, leading the nation in kick returns and generating turnovers. Franklin has scored 49, 49 and 52 aside from being shut out by No. 1 UW-Whitewater, so MSJ’s defense has its hands full. The Griz would seem to be a big favorite, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they won by seven or 10.
Pat’s take: St. John’s at St. Thomas. You have to figure the Johnnies come in fired up for this game. If not for two plays at the end of the game … or St. John’s inexplicable failure to go for two on its touchdown in the final minute … the Johnnies’ season would have a different look about it. The last three games in this series have come down to the final play, and even in a 3-7 season in 2003, the Tommies nearly derailed the Johnnies’ dream season, one which ended in an unbeaten run and Stagg Bowl near-rout of Mount Union. This game won’t disappoint, at least not neutral fans.
Most likely Top 25 team to get upset.
Ryan’s take: Trine. Adrian and Trine each enter Saturday’s game with an undefeated record. The difference, though, is that a Thunder victory isn’t as much of a foregone conclusion as it’s been in the past. In fact, I’d say the 20-game winning streak comes to an end. Trine’s not bad this year, but they’re also short of the greatness they’ve gotten used to. That shortcoming is going to prevent them from breaking through the defense that has gotten Adrian so far already this season. The Bulldogs are top in the conference in sacks and will put pressure on Trine quarterback Ryan Hargraves, essentially nullifying his impressive accuracy. The conference race will be decided Saturday.
Keith’s take: No. 7 Wheaton. The choices are cruddy. Toss out the six teams playing other top 25 teams; those are hardly upsets (although No. 24 Ohio Northern beating No. 2 Mount Union would be a shock). Then you’ve got teams playing Thiel, Kenyon, Oberlin, Morrisville State, Cornell, Juniata. No disrespect, but not exactly a murderer’s row to top 25 teams. So I’m left with really the only unranked team I think has a good chance at an upset: IWU, which has given up points in just 1 of 12 quarters so far (1st nationally in scoring defense). The Titans will have to figure out how to slow down the Thunder (484 yards a game so far; 437 in a 29-19 Wheaton win last season.)
Pat’s take: No. 4 Mary Hardin-Baylor. I gave my reasons above and I don’t usually repeat games like this but it’s my best bet.
They’ll be on your radar.
Ryan’s take: Muskingum. How can they not be a team to talk about after toppling Ohio Northern last Saturday? The question is: Did the Muskies (highlighted in this week’s Around the Great Lakes) just get the better of ONU that day or is this the start of something bigger and better for the team out of New Concord? They are off to a 3-0 start, and it’s likely to continue through this week’s game with Wilmington. But the back end of the conference schedule will be their toughest.
Keith’s take: Centre. I’d like to see UW-Platteville be competitive against Whitewater, but I’m more curious about the Colonels. They’ve scored nearly 42 points per game in a 3-0 start, rushing for 201 yards per game and passing for 177. DePauw, meanwhile, is down after a 1-2 start, able to score less than 16 points per game. Centre can continue building its case for national recognition by putting a hurting on a team that was often atop the SCAC.
Pat’s take: Albright. Or at least, they could be. They definitely have the opportunity, coming into a game at Lycoming at 4-0. Even a close loss qualifies them for the radar because it might bode well for the following games against Lebanon Valley and Delaware Valley.
Team most likely to salvage a bad season.
Ryan’s take: Hardin-Simmons. We all had our eye on HSU after their opening-week win over Coe. Even without graduated quarterback Justin Feaster and his go-to guy ZaVious Robbins, the Cowboys galloped past their first two opponents convincingly. What followed were two big losses and with them, gone was any hope of a trip to the playoffs. HSU has four games (including this week against East Texas Baptist) to rebuild their confidence and their focus before finishing with the McMurry rivalry and with ranked Louisiana College. The salvaging starts Saturday.
Keith’s take: St. John’s. No need for a long explanation here. No. 3 St. Thomas is no easy W. But I never dreamed of the day the Johnnies could have three losses on Oct. 1, and I’m sure no one recruited to play in Collegeville did either. If there’s any soul, any Johnnie pride left, they’ve got to somehow go into a more talented team’s home and win. Would add a chapter to the storied rivalry.
Pat’s take: Wesley. I mean, a Division I FCS opponent isn’t supposed to have an impact on a team’s playoff hopes, but with just one Pool B bid available and a loss already on the books, Wesley doesn’t have any margin for error. Charleston Southern is 0-4, including a loss to D-I non-scholarship Jacksonville. Wesley can take these guys.
Conference race most likely to get some clarity.
Ryan’s take: SCIAC. Because of the conference’s shorter-than-usual schedule, we haven’t seen as much from either Redlands or Cal Lutheran as we’d like. But there have been some solid glimmers of excitement, not least of which was Redlands’ win over North Central. It’s unlikely that any SCIAC opponent can challenge these two teams, making this matchup a big one in terms of foreshadowing the conference’s playoff representative.
Keith’s take: CCIW. Conference play begins with four teams at 3-0 and three more at 2-1. Beyond Wheaton-IWU, North Central goes to Carthage in a matchup of a team that’s scored 156 points in its past two wins (that’s not a typo; 70 and 86) against a team that’s allowed three in its past two.
Pat’s take: IIAC. The Coe-Central game is an intriguing one, with two programs with playoff experience who have their back against the wall. Central has beaten an ordinary team handily, lost to two Top 40 teams and beaten Augustana by eight (a last-minute touchdown made that closer). Coe’s resume is pretty well known. One of a handful of games that is needed to get this conference race figured out, but a Coe win will essentially end Central’s chances of winning the league.
Quarterback most likely to pass for 400 yards.
Ryan’s take: Wittenberg’s Ben Zoeller. The senior signal-caller hasn’t topped 400 yards since his team’s win over Capital in Week 1. But up strides Oberlin, a team that’s improved this year but not enough to slow Zoeller and his favorite receiving pair of Michael Cooper and Josh McKee. Wittenberg is famously dangerous at home, and that’s right where they’ll be Saturday.
Keith’s take: Illinois College’s Michael Bates. There’s a shootout brewin’ in Appleton. Bates, a freshman, has passed for 1,257 yards in four starts. His per-game average of 314 puts him two spots behind MWC conference cohort Alex Tanney (Monmouth), and two in front of Lawrence sophomore Luke Barthelmess. He’s Bates’ opponent Saturday, and although he’s got a shot at hitting 400 himself (IC is 3-1 despite being 214th nationally in pass efficiency defense, 219th in total defense and 229th against the pass, at 306 yards per game), his defense probably won’t help much. Lawrence could actually be more porous, at 221st in pass efficiency defense and 236th in total defense.
Pat’s take: Travis Lane, Hampden-Sydney. Unless Catholic’s defense got completely revamped over the bye week, the Cardinals will be in trouble. There won’t be a fourth-quarter comeback this time, but Catholic and Greg Cordivari will score enough points to keep the Tigers in a passing mode, where Lane will have his share of success.
Adrian · Cal Lutheran · Catholic · CCIW · Central · Centre · Coe · DePauw · East Texas Baptist · Franklin · Guilford · Hampden-Sydney · Hardin-Simmons · IIAC · Illinois College · Illinois Wesleyan · Lawrence · Louisiana College · Mary Hardin-Baylor · Mount St. Joseph · Muskingum · Oberlin · Redlands · SCIAC · St. John's · St. Thomas · Trine · UW-Platteville · Washington and Lee · Wesley · Wheaton · Wittenberg
Brandon James ran for 77 yards in Pacific Lutheran’s opener. Are the Lutes ready to pick up where they left off in 2010?
Pacific Lutheran athletics photo
We’ve seen what teams can do, and some may already be grinding their way into conference play. And, perhaps most exciting of all, upsets happening around the nation have been forcing us to reshape our notions of who will compete and who will get left behind as we inch toward the playoffs.
In each of the first two weeks, a national Top 4 team has been knocked off. Is being that high in the rankings is a curse? If so, that means Mary Hardin-Baylor and St. Thomas, as well as Division III’s reining purple powers, will be fending off the ghosts this week.
Pat Coleman, Keith McMillan and Ryan Tipps bring you an inside look at some of the captivating games taking place tonight and Saturday.
Game of the week.
Ryan’s take: Lebanon Valley at No. 25 Delaware Valley. Recent matchups between these two have been far more lopsided than they should have been, but the Aggies no longer have big-gun quarterback piling up the stats. DelVal is 2-0, but the team’s total margin of victory is 2 points. Lebanon Valley, meanwhile, has been finding the end zone fast and frequently so far in their undefeated debut weeks. The X-factor? It could be penalties. Both teams have lacked some discipline in that category so far this year, with the Dutchmen at six per game and the Aggies at eight per game.
Keith’s take: No. 18 Kean at No. 11 Cortland State. We’ll find out quickly if last week’s big upset was due to Kean being top 25-worthy this season, or Wesley being weaker than normal. Cortland State has played Kean every year since 1996, according to the game notes, but has only lost to the Cougars once, at home in ’09. For Kean, this is as long a road trip as it’ll have in the NJAC, and it’s an opportunity to set up a great season; its next five games are against teams it should beat. Defense will be the key on Saturday; both are opportunistic teams in the turnover battle.
Pat’s take: St. John’s at Concordia-Moorhead. It’s probably been a pretty interesting week for the Johnnies after getting blown out at home by UW-Eau Claire last week. The Johnnies have won five of six in this series and 15 of 18 and coach Terry Horan was a wide receiver for the Cobbers the last time they won at home against St. John’s (1986). Last year’s meeting resulted in 70 combined points (42-28 St. John’s) and 950 yards of total offense.
Surprisingly close game.
Ryan’s take: Mount St. Joseph at Anderson. Despite being a lower-tier HCAC team, Anderson has had a knack for being able to put up some significant points against the Lions. And Anderson has many of its core skill players back to make even more dents in the MSJ defense.
Keith’s take: Pacific Lutheran at No. 19 Cal Lutheran. When those Lutherans get together, things can get out of hand! In all seriousness, PLU doesn’t come in ranked, but it does come in having held Hamline to 144 yards in an opening-game shutout. Cal Lutheran, and particularly Eric Rogers, who scored one touchdown rushing and had another receiving against Linfield in the opener, is more of a threat than anyone the Lutes saw in Week 1. Yet it appears PLU picked up right where it left off after an 8-1 season. Although CLU should be hungry for its first victory, its home crowd might be a little more sparse than usual with the game moved to Moorpark College because construction at the on-campus stadium is incomplete.
Pat’s take: No. 21 Wittenberg at Washington U. It’s a big test for the 2-0 Bears, who have beaten Knox and Rhodes but now face a team that has won 22 consecutive regular season games. If there’s a time for Wash U to knock the Tigers off, it’s this year, with 12 senior starters and seven consecutive home wins. Last year this game was not competitive at Wittenberg, with the Tigers winning 37-7, but the Tigers have also had some close calls on the road in the past season-plus.
Most likely Top 25 to get upset.
Ryan’s take: No. 12 Ohio Northern. It’s not as if either the Polar Bears (with a win over N.C. Wesleyan) or opponent Otterbein (with a win over Gallaudet) were overly impressive in Week 1. ONU may not be able to slow Ott’s passing game come Saturday, and it’s tough for them to be guaranteed the edge in the turnover battle. Still, the Cardinals should not have been pushed into overtime by Gallaudet, so there are clear flaws to be worked out in that corner, too. Each team has had the past two weeks to make repairs.
Keith’s take: No. 7 Wheaton, by UW-Platteville. There are quite a few vulnerable top 25 teams, but they aren’t facing a real rugged slate of opponents this weekend. Platteville usually fits in the “not rugged” category as well, but after allowing just 6 points in two wins, outrushing UW-Stevens Point and Buena Vista 197.5-66.5, Wheaton could be in for a much tougher game than last year’s 51-20 victory. The game is a night kickoff at Platteville’s 10,000-seat Pioneer Stadium to boot.
Pat’s take: No. 22 Trine, by UW-River Falls. The Falcons were in the game for a half last week against St. Thomas, which isn’t really an indicator of future success, but I believe that River Falls is ready to bounce back at least a little in its first year under coach Matt Walker. Trine has won two games but not in convincing fashion against teams it would normally beat in a convincing manner.
They’ll be on your radar.
Ryan’s take: Adrian. It’s been several years since the Bulldogs started a season 2-0. Brandon Miller has proven himself a very capable quarterback, Damon Brown a skilled rusher and the defensive line a stingy bunch. The team’s toughest test of the season comes now against Augustana, whose 0-2 record is deceiving. The Vikings, armed with a pass game that will put a lot of pressure on the Adrian defensive backs, have played two solid teams close.
Keith’s take: St. Vincent. After giving it to FDU-Florham pretty good in a 55-3 victory, let’s see how the Bearcats deal with success. The program has not won consecutive games since its revival, but with trips to Thiel and Geneva (both 0-2) on deck, three in a row is possible. Of course, the Tomcats and Golden Tornadoes are probably licking their chops as well; PAC teams are used to St. Vincent being easy pickings.
Pat’s take: No. 23 Hampden-Sydney. Truth be told, the Tigers should be on your radar already, but wins against the USA South don’t always mean much on the national scene. They have one last USAC opponent this week, Ferrum, then travel to Huntingdon next week.
Which 0-2 team will earn its first win?
Ryan’s take: Franklin and Marshall, vs. Ursinus. Both F&M and Ursinus got the season started on a rough foot. But I think the Diplomats have the ability to do a better job of stopping Ursinus’ balanced but average offense than the Bears do of stopping F&M’s pass-heavy attack. Ursinus has yet to really break out of the middle of the pack in any significant statistical category, showing that the need remains for them to light a spark before they’ll be taken seriously as Centennial competitors. For F&M, it’s all about follow-through. Seven trips to the red zone and only two touchdowns? That has to improve if F&M wants to win some games this season.
Keith’s take: Coe, vs. Simpson. Both the Kohawks and Storm were blown out against a top-five team in Week 1 and lost a close one last week. Coe, ranked in the preseason, comes back home against a team it beat 42-21 last season. Coe has rushed for 206 yards per game and 5 per carry; Simpson allowed 411 and 7.6 against Bethel and could be similarly vulnerable in the ground game this weekend.
Pat’s take: Wooster, vs. Oberlin. Although the Yeomen are 1-0 themselves, with a 42-0 win against Kenyon, Wooster will still have an easier time than it had against Baldwin-Wallace and Wabash to open the season. The Scots will need to do a better job hanging onto the ball, though, having turned it over eight times in the first two weeks.
Which upset winner from last weekend will have the biggest letdown?
Ryan’s take: UW-Platteville. In Wheaton’s opener, the Thunder posted 570 yards. Passing, rushing, it was all good news for this stalwart of the CCIW. After Platteville shocked UW-Stevens Point into a lopsided affair last week, don’t expect Wheaton to be as likely to fall. Platteville’s undefeated season ends here.
Keith’s take: Utica. Perhaps the Pioneers have risen enough and Union has fallen to the point where last week’s 28-27 Utica win is no longer an upset. But this week has letdown written all over it, with a lengthy road trip down to Maryland, where the Pioneers may be walking into a beehive of emotion. It’s Frostburg State’s first home game since teammate Derek Sheely died in the preseason. Fans are asked to wear white. On the field, the Bobcats have looked potent offensively; they racked up 411 yards in a losing effort at Springfield last weekend.
Pat’s take: McMurry. Mary Hardin-Baylor is a much better team than UT-San Antonio, regardless of the number of scholarships either one offers. But the War Hawks shouldn’t be intimidated by anything the Cru throws at them, having gotten knocked around hard by a Top 25 FCS team in Week 1 and having played in front of 30,000-plus in Week 2.
If you were a bird, what kind of bird would you be?
Ryan’s take: A Cardinal from Catholic. For two weeks in a row, quarterback Greg Cordivari has led his offense on last-minute, game-winning drives to usher in a team that’s 2-0 instead of the other way around. Being a CUA fan has been a heart-pounding feat so far this season. Tonight, Carnegie Mellon is on tap.
Keith’s take: A War Hawk from McMurry. I see what you did there. Interesting question. After an 82-6 loss to one D-I-FCS program and a televised win over another last week, I’d be a War Hawk so I can take confidence from that win over UT-San Antonio into the atmosohere under the lights at No. 3 Mary Hardin-Baylor and see if that helps our team, um, soar.
Pat’s take: Hawk. The one from Huntingdon. This weekend is Huntingdon’s chance to write perhaps the final chapter in the Bible Bowl, a rivalry between the Hawks and crosstown rival Faulkner. An NAIA member, Faulkner is seeing its conference schedule expanded to 10 games next year, and the rivalry needs to go. But the game doesn’t help Huntingdon’s playoff chances anyway, and in addition, Huntingdon has won all four meetings so far.
Adrian · Anderson · Cal Lutheran · Catholic · Coe · Concordia-Moorhead · Cortland State · Delaware Valley · Franklin and Marshall · Frostburg State · Hampden-Sydney · Huntingdon · Kean · Lebanon Valley · McMurry · Mount St. Joseph · Oberlin · Ohio Northern · Otterbein · Pacific Lutheran · Simpson · St. John's · St. Vincent · Ursinus · Utica · UW-Platteville · Washington U. · Wheaton (Ill.) · Wittenberg · Wooster