Second NCAA regional ranking

Posted on February 17, 2016 by Pat Coleman

The second NCAA regional rankings have been released. Further rankings will follow on Feb. 24, along with one on Sunday, Feb. 28, which we do not get to see.

Need to know more about the regional rankings process and what they mean? Need to know more about the NCAA Tournament? Check out our NCAA Tournament FAQ.

The first record is Division III record, followed by overall.
Through games of Sunday, Feb. 14.

The NCAA has updated its data sheets. However, sometimes they disappear so if you really want a copy, you might want to go through and save the PDF files.

Men’s rankings
Atlantic Region – NCAA data sheet
1 New Jersey City 17-7 17-7
2 Stockton 18-5 18-6
3 DeSales 17-5 17-6
4 Staten Island 18-5 18-6
5 Brooklyn 18-6 18-6
6 Rutgers-Newark 18-6 18-6
7 Delaware Valley 15-6 17-6

Central – NCAA data sheet

1 Benedictine 24-0 24-0
2 Augustana 23-1 23-1
3 St. Norbert 20-2 20-2
4 North Central (Ill.) 17-6 18-6
5 Elmhurst 20-4 20-4
6 Chicago 15-6 16-6
7 Aurora 17-5 18-5
8 Carroll 17-4 17-4

East – NCAA data sheet

1 Plattsburgh State 18-4 18-4
2 Rochester 16-5 16-6
3 SUNY Geneseo 16-5 16-6
4 Brockport 15-7 15-7
5 Oswego State 17-6 17-6
6 NYU 18-4 18-4

Great Lakes – NCAA data sheet

1 Marietta 21-2 21-2
2 John Carroll 21-2 21-2
3 Ohio Wesleyan 20-3 20-3
4 Alma 18-5 18-5
5 Hope 19-1 21-2
6 Wooster 16-6 17-6
7 Hiram 17-5 17-6
8 Mount Union 14-7 15-7
9 St. Vincent 17-6 17-6

Mid-Atlantic – NCAA data sheet

1 Christopher Newport 22-1 22-1
2 Susquehanna 17-3 19-3
3 Salisbury 18-5 18-5
4 Catholic 17-5 17-5
5 Scranton 17-5 18-5
6 Franklin and Marshall 18-4 18-4

Northeast – NCAA data sheet

1 Amherst 20-4 20-4
2 Trinity (Conn.) 17-6 18-6
3 Tufts 19-5 19-5
4 Babson 17-5 17-5
5 WPI 18-5 18-5
6 Eastern Connecticut 16-7 16-7
7 Wesleyan 18-6 18-6
8 Johnson and Wales 20-2 21-2
9 MIT 18-5 18-5
10 Southern Vermont 20-3 20-3
11 Nichols 20-3 20-3

South – NCAA data sheet

1 Texas Lutheran 19-5 19-5
2 Virginia Wesleyan 17-6 17-6
3 Emory 15-6 16-6
4 Lynchburg 17-6 17-6
5 LaGrange 13-6 16-7
6 East Texas Baptist 17-5 19-5
7 Roanoke 18-4 19-4
8 N.C. Wesleyan 13-4 17-6

West – NCAA data sheet

WEST
1 St. Thomas 21-2 21-2
2 Whitworth 21-1 22-1
3 Whitman 19-3 20-3
4 St. John’s 16-6 17-6
5 St. Olaf 16-8 16-8
6 Concordia-Moorhead 15-8 15-9
7 Augsburg 15-8 15-8
Women’s

The first record is Division III record, followed by overall record.

Atlantic

1 Stockton 20-4 20-4
2 Rowan 20-4 20-4
3 Montclair State 18-6 18-6
4 DeSales 17-6 17-6
5 Manhattanville 16-6 16-6
6 Gwynedd Mercy 19-4 19-4
7 FDU-Florham 16-6 17-6
8 Sage 18-5 19-5

Central

1 UW-Oshkosh 18-4 19-4
2 Washington U. 18-4 18-4
3 UW-River Falls 18-4 19-4
4 UW-Stevens Point 17-6 17-6
5 UW-Whitewater 18-4 19-4
6 Wheaton (Ill.) 18-5 18-5
7 Concordia (Wis.) 18-4 18-5
8 Westminster (Mo.) 17-2 18-4
9 St. Norbert 18-4 18-4

East

1 Rochester 18-4 18-4
2 New York University 17-5 17-5
3 SUNY New Paltz 18-5 18-5
4 Stevens 17-5 17-5
5 SUNY Geneseo 16-5 16-6
6 St. John Fisher 20-2 20-3
7 Clarkson 19-4 19-4
8 Rochester Tech 18-5 18-5

Great Lakes

1 Thomas More 22-0 22-0
2 Hope 22-0 23-0
3 Ohio Northern 20-3 20-3
4 Denison 20-3 20-3
5 Capital 18-5 18-5
6 Bluffton 19-2 21-2
7 Rose-Hulman 18-3 20-3
8 Carnegie Mellon 16-6 16-6
9 La Roche 20-3 20-3

Mid-Atlantic

1 Scranton 23-0 23-0
2 Albright 22-2 22-2
3 Muhlenberg 20-2 20-2
4 Christopher Newport 21-2 21-2
5 Mary Washington 19-4 19-4
6 Marymount 19-4 19-4
7 Moravian 17-6 17-6
8 McDaniel 19-4 19-4

Northeast

1 Tufts 21-2 21-2
2 Amherst 23-1 23-1
3 University of New England 20-3 20-3
4 Bowdoin 19-5 19-5
5 Johnson and Wales 21-2 21-2
6 Eastern Connecticut 17-6 17-6
7 Connecticut College 17-6 17-6
8 Keene State 20-3 20-3
9 Emmanuel 18-6 18-6
10 Williams 17-7 17-7
11 Regis (Mass.) 20-3 20-3
12 Babson 18-5 18-5

South

1 Texas-Tyler 18-1 21-1
2 Guilford 18-3 18-3
3 Lynchburg 19-4 19-4
4 Birmingham-Southern 19-2 20-2
5 Maryville (Tenn.) 19-3 19-3
6 Trinity (Texas) 18-3 20-4
7 Eastern Mennonite 16-6 16-6
8 Austin 16-7 16-7
9 Hendrix 18-5 18-5

West

1 George Fox 22-0 23-0
2 St. Thomas 20-3 20-3
3 Claremont-Mudd-Scripps 19-3 19-4
4 Saint Mary’s (Minn.) 19-4 19-4
5 Luther 16-5 18-5
6 Wartburg 16-6 17-6
7 Chapman 17-4 17-6
8 Gustavus Adolphus 17-6 17-6

Dave’s Top 25 Ballot – Week 10

Posted on February 16, 2016 by Dave McHugh

Whitworth moved up in another shake up of Dave’s Top 10 – and the rest of the Top 25

BRUTAL!

It always seems that once a year the day Regional Rankings are released there is carnage… or at least the week of that release. But I did NOT see last Wednesday coming or what would result the rest of the week. I figured we had another week before things might get a little crazy as teams are focused on conference postseasons and such.

Nope. Last week was brutal.

You may remember last week I blew up my ballot, considered at least 20 teams outside of my Top 25, shook up most of the ballot, and replaced four of the teams on my ballot. Whelp, this week was nearly the same. I ended up writing down and diving deep into 23 teams (meaning I was seriously considering 48 teams!), reshuffled nearly the entire Top 10, and blew up basically everything from about 17 down. It results in replacing five teams and shaking my head quite a bit.

I keep threatening to throw darts. I am not sure why I didn’t resort to that this week.

Not much else I can say. I saw a lot of games this week in person or online (though, I missed an awesome opportunity to see a Top 10 battle, which I talked about on Hoopsville Sunday) and really tried to give as many teams I have questions about a fair shake. It is just amazing how many teams that ends up including.

Plenty more to say about a lot of the teams on my ballot, and who fell off, so here we go:

1 – Augustana^ (Unchanged)

2 – Benedictine (Unchanged)

3 – Whitworth* (Up 2)

Christopher Newport has a lot of good pieces, including on the bench, which make them dangerous. Courtesy: Christopher Newport Athletics

4 – Christopher Newport* (Up 3)
I got a chance to see the Captains in person this weekend. Damn they are good. Granted, the York (Pa.) game isn’t exactly the best place to compare against, especially since YCP played hard in the second half to make it interesting for a brief moment. However, Christopher Newport has a ton of weapons and to paraphrase Scott Guise at YCP they have players coming off the bench who could start for a lot of teams in the Mid-Atlantic. I agree with Ryan Scott who said recently this is a team who could make serious run for Salem considering the bracket they will probably run through.

5 – Marietta (Up 5)
The Pioneers put their foot down on the Great Lakes region this past week. Beating both Mount Union and John Carroll, they proved that the OAC and possibly those wanting to go to Salem via the Great Lakes will have to go through Marietta to get it done. Very impressive. Certainly a statement week. Here’s hoping the Pioneers use it to keep themselves motivated, versus losing focus after two major games.

6 – St. Thomas* (Down 2)

7 – Hope (Down 1)

John Carroll lost control of their season, ever so slightly, last week.

8 – John Carroll (Down 5)
Rough week for the Blue Streaks… who saw their 21-game win-streak to start the season come to an end. I wouldn’t have dinged them too much for losing to Baldwin Wallace first, though not the team I expected them to lose to, but they couldn’t regain their footing before Marietta kept them streaking in the wrong direction. I still think John Carroll is a dangerously good team, but they have to forget about these two losses with Mount Union up next and then a good showing needed in the conference tournament if they want to enter the NCAA Tournament strong.

9 – Ohio Wesleyan (Down 1)
I thought about moving the Battling Bishops down a little further after another odd loss, this time to Wabash, but there is a buffer below them where I don’t think the teams below are better. However, it is another head-scratching loss for Ohio Wesleyan. I hope they haven’t peaked too early and are running out of gas. A lot of teams this part of the season are licking their wounds from the grind and OWU is clearly in that boat, but they have to find a way to recover, rest, and respond… because they missed a prime opportunity to regain first place in the NCAC for themselves by losing to Wabash.

10 – Elmhurst (Down 1)

St. Norbert is still undefeated in conference. A feat that has them readily moving up the IIAC.

11 – St. Norbert (Up 2)

12 – Lancaster Bible (Up 2)

13 – Johnson and Wales (Down 2)
I actually figured the way the Wildcats were blistering the conference they would go undefeated in the GNAC. They proved that point by thumping Lasell (who is second in the conference) earlier last week, but Albertus Magnus made up for a 55-point beatdown earlier in the season with a confident eight-point win on Saturday. I give AMC’s Mitch Oliver most of the credit for that win considering his ability to adjust, but the Wildcats need to be a bit like Teflon and let that loss slide off and get back to work in the final week of the season before the conference tournament begins.

14 – Susquehanna^ (Down 2)

15 – Alma (Unchanged)

16 – Whitman (Up 1)

17 – Amherst^ (Up 3)

Plattsburgh State wants to make sure they are wearing white during the SUNYAC tournament.

18 – Plattsburgh State (Down 2)
Wow! The Cardinals got blitzed by Oswego State! At first, I thought about dropping Plattsburgh State significantly as a result, but then I considered two things: Oswego is playing really well (though digging out of an early season hole) and there really aren’t that many teams below Plattsburgh I would feel comfortable putting ahead of them. That one loss doesn’t change the fact they are in control of the SUNYAC which will mean a lot of teams making a very long trip to try and knock them off.

North Central (Ill.) finally cracked into Dave’s Top 25.

19 – North Central (Ill.) (Unranked)
OK… I am ranking the Cardinals. I still have some reservations with North Central, but they finally got a win I have been waiting for. NCC has played a lot of good teams this season, which means their have an incredible SOS, a respectable number of regionally ranked opponents, and more. However, they can’t seem to get a significant win until last week and some of their resume has faded near the end of the season (Chicago, Mount Union, etc.). So, I am ranking North Central this week, but I am rather confident they will lose at least one more game in the next two weeks (in the CCIW tournament) if they don’t do it first on the road against North Park this weekend.

20 – Rochester* (Unranked)
The UAA is just crazy this year! This was Chicago’s to take just a few weeks ago and all of the sudden it is Rochester who has won eight straight and sits in a tie with Emory on top of the rankings. And with three games to play, NYU and Chicago are only two games back waiting for Rochester and Emory to stumble. But back to the Yellow Jackets who, like I said, have won eight straight including beating NYU who beat Emory this weekend. Rochester is also well positioned in the first regional rankings and after this weekend I can’t imagine that changes … meaning if the UAA is going to get an extra bid to the NCAA Tournament, Rochester might be their best bet – if they don’t surprisingly win the conference!

Babson returns to Dave’s ballot thanks to winning 11 of their last 12 games.

21 – Babson^ (Unranked)
Hard to ignore the Beavers any more. They have won seven straight and 11 of their last 12 and taken firm control of the NEWMAC race. In the grand scheme of things, their five losses aren’t bad, though only one or two are “good” (Amherst and Tufts). However, this is how I expected this team to play this season and maybe they have found themselves at the perfect time to make a respectable run back to Salem.

22 – Virginia Wesleyan^ (Unranked)
Quietly, the Marlins are reemerging as the team to beat out of the South Region. Dave Macedo has gotten the squad pointed in the right direction and they have now won 9 of their last 10 (though, Randolph-Macon trounced them) and 12 of their last 14. But, I am a little nervous. They are still not dominating teams, though it looks like they have figured out how to scrap for wins and win tight games which where letting slip through their hands earlier this season. They are also now on top of the ODAC.. but that doesn’t really mean much in the grand scheme of things because no match-up at the Salem Civic Center appears to be easy this year – or any year for that matter.

Tufts will due battle in the NESCAC conference tournament starting this weekend.

23 – Tufts (Unranked)
I have been watching Tufts for weeks. And while they have a recent loss to Trinity that has me uneasy (and debating about putting Trinity here instead), there is something about how Bob Sheldon’s team is play – including an impressive win over Amherst recently – that I like. Though, I will admit I didn’t like it necessarily last week. They have at least followed up the win with more wins. Coincidently they finished with a win on the road at Williams Saturday and will have a rematch this Saturday in the NESCAC quarterfinals (at Trinity). That is something that could easily derail the Jumbos if they don’t watch out.

24 – Northwestern (Minn.) (Down 3)
No major reasons I have been moving Northwestern down my ballot except I have been making room for teams I think are better than the Eagles. However, I will say when I see their SOS this week is unofficially** a .399 I get very concerned. Northwestern has basically played no one, especially in the UMAC. And while that didn’t mean much last season leading them to an incredible run in the NCAA Tournament… I think it is a telling sign this season. They also are not going to get into the tournament unless they take care of business in the UMAC tournament.

PSU-Behrend nearly dropped out of Dave’s Top 25 after losing to Medaille last week.

25 – PSU-Behrend (Down 7)
Not only did they lose a conference game they shouldn’t be losing, but there are other teams surging that need to get put ahead of them in the poll – thus a drop of seven spots for the Lions. Here is another team basically in a win-the-conference-or-go-home boat – as they were last year when they missed out on the tournament. They may only have two losses, but Behrend doesn’t feel like a Top 25 team anymore… though I am staying with them for right now.

Dropped Out:

Mount Union (Previously 19)
For as good a week as Marietta had, Mount Union and John Carroll had the opposite. The problem with the Purple Raiders is they now have seven losses and are 4-4 in their last eight. Three HUGE games coming up including against John Carroll. If Mount Union wants to put together any hope for an at-large argument (assuming, thus, they have lost in the conference tournament), they cannot lose those three. (Of course, after I wrote this blog, but before i posted it, they lost to Muskingum on Monday night.)

Wooster (Previously 22)
Just when I thought the Scots had figured things out, they stumble again. You quickly forget about wins over Ohio Wesleyan when you come back and lose to Hiram. I know Hiram is a much improved team, that isn’t the issue. The issue is Wooster isn’t consistent this season and thus I am not comfortable with them in my Top 25.

Emory let the UAA lead slip out of their grip, but three games remain in what can only be described as a chaotic conference race.

Emory (Previously 23)
Just when I buy in, they stumble, too. I am not one of those voters who thinks NYU is a great team (or at least a Top 25 team), thus the loss by Emory is not a good one in my book. They had a chance to keep control of the UAA, but now put themselves in a must-win situation. Their saving grace is their insane SOS (.600) which will probably still keep them in the at-large conversation in a very loss-heavy South Region in less than two weeks.

Aurora (Previously 24)
Eh. Another team I buy into and suffers a loss I can’t explain or understand. It isn’t that Concordia (Wis.) is a bad team, but if Aurora is a Top 25 team they win that game. I like Aurora, but I don’t like that loss. It was part of the carnage, I realize. But when you are at the bottom of a voter’s ballot, any slip up will most likely cost you.

F&M is still a work in progress for a program that has been maybe over achieving since last season.

Franklin & Marshall* (Previously 25)
I got a chance to finally see the Diplomats in person this year (I usually see them at least once, more likely twice a season; saw a lot of them on video streams this year) and I wasn’t impressed. What I saw equaled what the voice in the back of my head had been saying for a long time. They have some nice players, but the starting five has a few holes and they cannot play consistent or a full 40 minutes. I saw a team that got frustrated at the drop of a hat and Johns Hopkins (who they were playing against) took full advantage when their only true inside presence had to take a break for foul trouble. What is also telling: when F&M fans I know tell me they don’t think the Diplomats are a Top 25 team, either (no, I am not going to name names).

* – teams I have seen in person this season
^ – teams I have saw in person last season
** – the number comes from Matt Snyder’s SOS math which last week was proven to be nearly identical to the NCAA’s data. You can find it here along with his regional predictions based on that data here.

Previous Ballots:

Week 9
Week 8
Week 7
Week 6
Week 5
Week 4
Week 2
Week 1
Preseason

So now that we have gotten that out of the way, how this season has played out so far… I am bound to replace half of this Top 25 in the next two weeks as conference seasons come to a close and conference tournaments turn everything on its head. It has been an unbelievable year so far… why wouldn’t the last two weeks of the regular season be any different.

Buckle up… this is going to be fun… and insane.

First 2016 regional rankings released today

Posted on February 10, 2016 by Pat Coleman

The first NCAA regional rankings have been released this afternoon. Further rankings will follow on Feb. 17 and Feb. 24, along with one on Sunday, Feb. 28, which we do not get to see.

Need to know more about the regional rankings process and what they mean? Need to know more about the NCAA Tournament? Check out our NCAA Tournament FAQ.

The first record is Division III record, followed by overall.
Through games of Sunday, Feb. 7.

The NCAA has updated its data sheets. However, sometimes they disappear so if you really want a copy, you might want to go through and save the PDF files.

Men’s rankings
Atlantic Region – NCAA data sheet

1 Stockton 17-4 17-5
2 Staten Island 17-4 17-5
3 Brooklyn 17-5 17-5
4 New Jersey City 14-7 14-7
5 DeSales 15-5 15-6
6 Rutgers-Newark 16-6 16-6
7 Delaware Valley 14-5 16-5

Central – NCAA data sheet

1 Benedictine 22-0 22-0
2 Augustana 21-1 21-1
3 St. Norbert 18-2 18-2
4 North Central (Ill.) 15-6 16-6
5 Elmhurst 19-3 19-3
6 Aurora 16-4 17-4
7 Chicago 13-6 14-6
8 Carroll 15-4 15-4

East – NCAA data sheet

1 Plattsburgh State 17-3 17-3
2 Rochester 14-5 14-6
3 SUNY Geneseo 14-4 14-5
4 Oswego State 14-6 14-6
5 SUNY Oneonta 13-7 13-7
6 St. John Fisher 15-5 15-5

Great Lakes – NCAA data sheet

1 John Carroll 21-0 21-0
2 Marietta 19-2 19-2
3 Ohio Wesleyan 19-2 19-2
4 Hope 17-1 19-2
5 Alma 16-5 16-5
6 Wooster 15-5 16-5
7 Mount Union 14-5 15-5
8 Hiram 15-5 15-6
9 Trine 14-6 15-6

Mid-Atlantic – NCAA data sheet

1 Christopher Newport 20-1 20-1
2 Susquehanna 16-2 18-2
3 Salisbury 16-5 16-5
4 Catholic 16-5 16-5
5 Franklin and Marshall 18-3 18-3
6 Scranton 15-5 16-5

Northeast – NCAA data sheet

1 Amherst 18-4 18-4
2 Trinity (Conn.) 15-6 16-6
3 Tufts 17-5 17-5
4 Babson 15-5 15-5
5 Wesleyan 18-4 18-4
6 WPI 16-5 16-5
7 Eastern Connecticut 14-7 14-7
8 MIT 16-4 16-4
9 Johnson & Wales 19-1 20-1
10 Southern Vermont 18-3 18-3
11 Nichols 18-3 18-3

South – NCAA data sheet

1 Emory 14-5 15-5
2 Texas Lutheran 17-5 17-5
3 Virginia Wesleyan 15-6 15-6
4 Lynchburg 16-5 16-5
5 LaGrange 12-5 15-6
6 East Texas Baptist 16-4 18-4
7 Roanoke 16-4 17-4
8 N.C. Wesleyan 11-4 15-6

West – NCAA data sheet

1 St. Thomas 19-1 19-1
2 Whitworth 19-1 20-1
3 Whitman 17-3 18-3
4 Concordia-Moorhead 14-6 14-7
5 Bethel 14-6 14-6
6 St. John’s 15-5 16-5
7 Dubuque 12-6 15-6

Women’s

The first record is Division III record, followed by overall record.

Atlantic

1 Stockton 18-4 18-4
2 Rowan 19-3 19-3
3 Montclair State 16-6 16-6
4 DeSales 16-5 16-5
5 Sage 17-4 17-4
6 Gwynedd Mercy 17-4 17-4
7 FDU-Florham 15-5 16-5
8 Manhattanville 14-6 14-6

Central

1 UW-Stevens Point 16-5 16-5
2 Washington U. 16-4 16-4
3 UW-River Falls 16-4 17-4
4 UW-Oshkosh 16-4 17-4
5 UW-Whitewater 16-4 17-4
6 Concordia (Wis.) 17-3 17-4
7 Wheaton (Ill.) 16-5 16-5
8 Westminster (Mo.) 15-2 16-4
9 St. Norbert 16-4 16-4

East

1 Rochester 17-3 17-3
2 New York University 17-3 17-3
3 SUNY Geneseo 14-4 14-5
4 Stevens 15-5 15-5
5 St. John Fisher 17-2 17-3
6 SUNY New Paltz 15-5 15-5
7 Clarkson 17-4 17-4
8 Rochester Tech 17-4 17-4

Great Lakes

1 Thomas More 20-0 20-0
2 Hope 21-0 21-0
3 Ohio Northern 18-3 18-3
4 Denison 19-3 19-3
5 Carnegie Mellon 15-5 15-5
6 Rose-Hulman 16-3 18-3
7 Capital 17-4 17-4
8 Bluffton 17-2 19-2
9 Washington and Jefferson 18-3 18-3

Mid-Atlantic

1 Scranton 21-0 21-0
2 Albright 20-2 20-2
3 Muhlenberg 17-2 17-2
4 Marymount 18-3 18-3
5 Moravian 16-5 16-5
6 Christopher Newport 19-2 19-2
7 Mary Washington 18-3 18-3
8 York (Pa.) 16-5 16-5

Northeast

1 Tufts 20-2 20-2
2 Amherst 21-1 21-1
3 University of New England 18-3 18-3
4 Bowdoin 17-5 17-5
5 Williams 17-5 17-5
6 St. Joseph’s (Maine) 15-4 17-4
7 Johnson & Wales 20-2 20-2
8 Eastern Connecticut 16-5 16-5
9 Keene State 18-3 18-3
10 Regis (Mass.) 18-3 18-3
11 WPI 20-1 20-1
12 Connecticut College 16-5 16-5

South

1 Texas-Tyler 18-1 21-1
2 Guilford 16-3 16-3
3 Maryville (Tenn.) 17-3 17-3
4 Lynchburg 17-4 17-4
5 Trinity (Texas) 16-3 18-4
6 Birmingham-Southern 17-2 18-2
7 Hendrix 16-5 16-5
8 Emory & Henry 15-4 15-5
9 Eastern Mennonite 14-6 14-6

West

1 George Fox 20-0 21-0
2 St. Thomas 18-3 18-3
3 Saint Mary’s (Minn.) 18-3 18-3
4 Claremont-Mudd-Scripps 17-3 17-4
5 Luther 14-5 16-5
6 Cal Lutheran 16-3 16-5
7 Loras 14-6 14-7
8 Gustavus Adolphus 15-6 15-6

Dave’s Top 25 Ballot: Week 9

Posted on February 9, 2016 by Dave McHugh

Dave tore up his ballot this week and tried to start over.

BOOM!

That sound you may have heard was me finally doing what I had been debating, and threatening, to do for weeks – blow up my ballot. It wasn’t a complete and devastating destruction, but it was good enough to make me rethink a number of teams, positions, and my thought process behind many. Surprisingly, not as many teams at the top shifted as dramatically as I thought they would in my head. However, the bottom half basically went through a complete make-over including cutting bait with teams because I just couldn’t justify my decisions anymore.

I also dove into more teams than usual this time of year and I dove into more data than I usually like to do. Many know I am not a fan of Massey Ratings, but this is the time of year I do take a look at their numbers to see if there is something I am missing. I don’t end up agreeing with Massey, but it at least forces me to reevaluate a team I am either under- or over-selling and it helps me make sure I am not missing anyone.

Same is true with the NCAA SOS numbers. Of course, we don’t have access to those numbers until Wednesday (when the first Regional Rankings debut), but math-expert Matt Snyder has his own “math” working online, based on the NCAA formula, which gives us at least a good idea of what to expect from the NCAA data (Matt will get a chance to double-check his formula(s) on Wednesday). While I am certainly not ranking my teams per the SOS, it does give me a better insight on what their schedule actually looks like from a data point of view. This sometimes will force me to dive into a team’s schedule further to figure out, maybe, why it doesn’t add up to my expectations (high or low).

This week’s ballot started with a completely blank piece of paper.

As a result of all of this, I ended up writing down a total of 45 teams, including my previous Top 25, to research and analyze. Each week this season I have had between 50-70 teams that have at least crossed my mind, but by the time I get down to researching, I have whittled that number down to 30-35. Also, I will sometimes breeze over teams I have near the top or know well to save myself time. However, this week, there was a solid 45 teams to go through and I went through each of their schedules, games, and notes I have on them in the past few weeks.

That’s what you do when you blow up your ballot.

As a result, my top ten went through a bit of a shuffle – though, it ended up not as severe as it started. I had moved some teams around significantly at the beginning before settling down to a more reserved shuffle in the end. The bottom fifteen, on the other hand, was completely turned on its head. I dropped four teams some of whom might surprise you despite big wins. I nearly dropped a fifth, but ended up deciding to hold on to my 25^th team a little longer despite a major voice in the back of head not pleased with the decision.

With that being said, here is my Top 25 (which you can compare to the D3hoops.com Top 25). I am not going to comment on much of the top ten to save time and space. There are moves, they probably make sense. If they don’t, let me know. I wanted to focus my writing time mainly on the moves I made in the bottom half.

John Carroll moved up to No. 3 on Dave’s ballot this week.

1 – Augustana^ (Unchanged)

2 – Benedictine (Up 2)

3 – John Carroll (Up 2)

4 – St. Thomas* (Down 1)

5 – Whitworth* (Down 3)

6 – Hope (Unchanged)

7 – Christopher Newport (Up 2)

8 – Ohio Wesleyan (Down 1)

9 – Elmhurst (Down 1)

10 – Marietta (Unchanged)

11 – Johnson and Wales (Unchanged)

12 – Susquehanna^ (Unchanged)

13 – St. Norbert (Up 2)

The Chargers have jumped up Dave’s ballot thanks to dominating wins in NEAC play.

14 – Lancaster Bible (Up 4)
This is a big jump in my mind for the Chargers. The simple fact is at this time of the year with an unbeaten team in a sub-par conference I am looking for one thing: domination. Lancaster Bible is dominating the NEAC. They are winning conference games by nearly 27-points this season and haven’t had a game closer than 15 since beating Cairn by four on December 11^th. Sure, the conference isn’t giving up much of a fight and there is a really problematic situation coming should they not win the AQ (SOS is .421 and while probably improve slightly; do you leave a one-loss team at home?). However, the Chargers are starting to prove their early season success was just the tip of the iceberg.

15 – Alma (Down 2)

16 – Plattsburgh State (Up 5)
The Cardinals are pulling away from what I thought was going to be a dog-fight of a SUNYAC race. Plattsburgh has won 13 of their last 14 games and now have a 3 ½ game lead on the conference with five games to play. This has been a six-team race at the top not that long ago. Basically, Plattsburgh is proving to be the only team that can win nearly every night in Central and Western New York.

Whitman proved once again they can beat Whitworth when wearing their home white jerseys.

17 – Whitman (Unranked)
I would be lying if I told you I was comfortable with putting Whitman this high on my ballot. Their win over Whitworth certainly gave me reason to include them, but this high? I realize I am one of the last to buy in to the Missionaries, but we have seen this script before. The only team capable of beating Whitworth in conference over the years is Whitman, but only when playing the game at the Sherwood Center on Whitman’s campus. Does that really make Whitman a good team this season versus others? Outside of beating Whitworth, the Missionaries don’t have a significant win on their schedule. While that doesn’t add up to this decision, I do lean on the fact Whitman has only lost three games and at least has played well in conference. I’m buying in… trepidatiously.

18 – Penn State-Behrend (Up 2)

19 – Mount Union (Up 3)

20 – Amherst (Down 6)
The team-formerly-known-as-the-Lord-Jeffs did not play well against Tufts on Saturday. Shot poorly from deep (28%), got out-rebounded, couldn’t hit a free throw (8-16), and allowed Tufts to have a 21-point lead before realizing they were in trouble. I am just not that confident in the purple team from more-central-than-west Massachusetts. When Amherst has been a national power in the past, these games didn’t exist. They have now dropped three games in their last eight with a resurgent Middlebury and scrappy Hamilton squads waiting to close out the regular season.

21 – Northwestern (Minn.) (Down 2)
Northwestern hasn’t done anything to drop two spots, but they haven’t done anything to make me think they are better than 21^st. They have hands-down the worse SOS of any of the teams I am considering, and it’s ugly (.408) and they are barely holding on to the lead in the UMAC thanks to a loss already to St. Scholastica (they will play a rematch in the final game of the season). I just don’t think they are as good as I had them ranked.

Has Wooster reemerged as the best team in the Great Lakes?

22 – Wooster (Unranked)
Welcome back Scots. Looks like the team that has been underperforming to normal Wooster expectations may have found their stride. The win over Ohio Wesleyan a few weeks back is certainly a good sign, but they have also won ten of their last eleven and might pull off the surprise and force the NCAC tournament trough Timken Gymnasium! Their offense is scoring far more points in the last several weeks than it has all season while the defense seems to be staying consistent. Maybe Steve Moore has his team peaking during an off-year at just the right time to surprise some people.

23 – Emory* (Unranked)
Welcome back Eagles. The last two weeks in the UAA have been unbelievable. Emory was a game back of Chicago before playing their home-and-home series over the last two weekends. Now Emory has won six-straight, has a one-game lead on Rochester*, and Chicago has fallen to three-games back. Emory may have a young team, but they are proving they can now win the close games and beat some very good teams while they are at it. By the way, Emory has a ridiculous SOS (.634 unofficially) meaning they could get into the NCAA tournament once again and throw a monkey-wrench into bracketing like they did in 2014.

If Benedictine wasn’t undefeated, we probably would be talking more about Aurora and the NACC. Courtesy: Aurora University Athletics

24 – Aurora (Unranked)
I realize the Spartans lost to Benedictine this week, but have you seen how Aurora has been playing prior? If Benedictine wasn’t undefeated, people would probably be talking about Aurora. Since they lost three of four prior to the holiday break, they won ten in a row before facing Benedictine (now 11 of their past 12) and winning pretty confidently. Of course, maybe Aurora also looks better thanks to pretty much only losing to Benedictine this season. However, a .537 SOS surprised me, but that forced me to look at the schedule and remember a win over North Central (Ill.) and notice they have been putting up points all season.

25 – Franklin & Marshall (Down 1)
I almost cut the Diplomats. I know they are winning, but I am not impressed for some reason. I guess I don’t buy in as much as people would expect. But, I have watched the team for so many years and I just don’t think this team is quite where it can be to be a Top 25 team. The conference is also down (despite a good Swarthmore team who has emerged) and that doesn’t allow F&M to shine as much as they could. I actually had the Diplomats out of my ballot several times and was going to keep it that way until I voted. Then I changed my mind and left them in. Seems weird if they only have three-losses that I don’t have them in my Top 25 despite what that voice in the back of my head is yelling.

Dropped Out:

WPI^ (Previously 16)
The Engineers have lost three in a row. That’s pretty much the reason I dropped them. It is just so hard to buy in to WPI when they always seem to peak early and go through a stretch late in the season like this. The loss to Babson was their second to them and handed the Beavers the NEWMAC lead, but it was the end of three in a row that saw WPI lose to 9-12 (now) Springfield and Emerson.

Chicago has lost four in a row and put themselves in jeopardy of missing the NCAA Tournament. Courtesy: Univ. of Chicago Athletics

Chicago^ (Previously 17)
The Maroons have now lost four in a row, all to Rochester and Emory including an unbelievable loss to the Yellow Jackets on a purposely missed free-throw, rebound, and three-pointer at the buzzer. It is amazing how fast a season can change. Chicago is basically in a must-win situation the rest of the season. Any loss will pretty much eliminate them from winning the UAA crown and throw them into a very crowded Central Region that will make getting an at-large bid very difficult. I really like Chicago and have for years… but this is not good.

Tufts had a tough battle this week, but despite beating Amherst fell out of Dave’s Top 25.

Tufts (Previously 23)
I realize the Jumbos beat Amherst, but they also lost to Trinity this week. No, not a bad loss and certainly a good win, but in a shake-up of my Top 25 I couldn’t hold on to them. They have previous losses to Wesleyan and Middlebury in the last few weeks and just don’t seem to be playing very consistently – they are all over the place. I might be wrong on this, but I just don’t like the look. Plus the fact, if you are good enough to beat Amherst… you should be good enough to be Trinity.

Texas Lutheran (Previously 25)
I was ready to pull this trigger last week, but held on. But a loss to Trinity this past weekend was the straw that broke the back. I don’t doubt the Bulldogs are a very good team this year and could make a bit of a run in the NCAA tournament if the bracket lines up right for them (like East Texas Baptist last year), but it is a crowded field for those worthy of being a Top 25 team and I think Texas Lutheran isn’t fitting the mold right now.

* – teams I have seen in person this season
^ – teams I have saw in person last season

Previous Ballots:

Week 8
Week 7
Week 6
Week 5
Week 4
Week 2
Week 1
Preseason

It certainly is interesting right now. Sometimes the Top 25 settles down a little bit by this time of the year, but not this season. That isn’t overly surprising. There are a lot of good teams across the country and probably some that are flying under the radar. I know I spotted a few that I hadn’t taken as seriously as before in this process of blowing up my radar. Some made my ballot, some others are still off the ballot. There certainly isn’t a shortage of teams who can make arguments they are the best 25 in the country.\

For comparison’s sake, you can also check out Ira Thor’s Top 25 ballot here.

Dave’s Top 25 Blog: Week 8

Posted on February 6, 2016 by Dave McHugh

North Central (Ill.) one of the teams high on the overall Top 25 poll but not on Dave’s ballot. Courtesy: North Central Athletics

This is being posted just a few days late! I apologize for the delay. The Hoopsville Marathon took up a lot of time this week, not just on Thursday. I wrote this late Tuesday night, but never got around to posting it. However, better late than never. Enjoy!(?)

Welcome to yet another look at my D3hoops.com Top 25 men’s basketball ballot. Another week, another few hours spent scratching more of my hair off my head.

I’m not sure what to add at this point. This is a challenging week with launching the Hoopsville Fundraising Campaign while also getting ready for the Hoopsville Marathon Show on Thursday. I had plenty of things to consider this week, but the amount of time spent on the other two major projects this week has not only already delayed publishing this blog, but left me with not much to comment on.

I will say this: I am clearly not on board with some or a lot of voters on a couple of teams. North Central (Ill.) is about mid-pack, but not on my ballot. I completely understand why some are voting for them, but many of those reasons are why I can’t vote for them. The biggest one – their losses have been to some very, very good teams, but they haven’t won any of those games either. They do have a solid win over Elmhurst, but that is pretty much the only team of note (NCC did beat Mount Union, but they have fallen out of the Top 25). That win over Elmhurst has me nearly including them on my ballot, but I guess I am just looking for the Cardinals to prove they can win more than just one big game out of six (or two out of seven).

I wanted to make sure I addressed that elephant in the room before I got to my ballot. There are others, but you can figure them out when you read through my ballot.

So here we go:

1 – Augustana (Unchanged)

2 – Whitworth* (Unchanged)

3 – St. Thomas* (Unchanged)

4 – Benedictine (Unchanged)

5 – John Carroll (Unchanged)

Hope continues to win, but have they peaked too soon? Courtesy: Hope Athletics

6 – Hope (Up 3)
The Dutchmen have moved up, but I am a little worried this is a little lofty all of the sudden. Could Hope have peaked too soon this season? They just don’t seem to be playing like they were a month ago and now find themselves no longer in control of the MIAA which might mean having to go on the road to secure an AQ and position themselves for home games in the NCAA Tournament (granted, that last point may be moot considering the women have hosting priority in the first weekend the Hope women are playing well enough to secure those for themselves). Hope moves up, but mainly because I needed to shuffle some others down.

7 – Ohio Wesleyan (Down 1)
Yes, the Battling Bishops lost to Wooster who isn’t even ranked let alone on my ballot. Falling just one spot seems awfully kind as a result. However, I am realistic enough to understand that playing at Wooster has historically been one of the more difficult things to accomplish. The game was terrific with both teams trading free throws in the final three and half seconds. I am a little worried with Ohio Wesleyan as I am with Hope. They seem a little banged up going through a tough NCAC, but I also think they are still far better than many of the teams below them.

Does Elmhurst have some chinks in the armor? Courtesy: Elmhurst Athletics

8 – Elmhurst (Down 1)
I honestly would have been shocked if Elmhurst had beaten Augustana in Rock Island especially after the Vikings had the motivation of overcoming the earlier loss to the Blue Jays. What I didn’t expect was the second half. The game was tied at halftime, but Augustana made quick work of Elmhurst in the second half. It is the Blue Jays second loss in the last two weeks (four games) and that has me a little concerned. While the rankings say I shouldn’t move Elmhurst down for losing to a team above them (let alone the top team in the country accordingly to my ballot), the combination of being taken out of the game in the final 20 minutes against Augustana and losing two games in the last four had me shift them slightly.

9 – Christopher Newport (Unchanged)

10 – Marietta (Up 1)

11 – Johnson and Wales (Up 2)

12 – Susquehanna^ (Down 2)
As I have said with many other programs, I didn’t expect the Crusaders to get through Landmark play unscathed. Losing at Catholic, sure I could see that happening. Losing by 21 and giving up 101? Um, no. Ouch. Granted, both teams shot the lights out of the building, but I talked to an official who called the game and he told me he felt Susquehanna played horribly. That gave me pause. I really think Susquehanna will win the Landmark and play in the NCAA Tournament and probably go deep, but I also hope the Catholic game is not a sign of the future.

Alma hasn’t played this well in 74 years!

13 – Alma (Up 3)
I am going to repeat myself: at the beginning of the season, Hope’s Greg Mitchell told me on Hoopsville that Alma was the team to watch in the MIAA. Boy was he right. Now Mitchell and the Dutchmen are looking at the Scots ahead of the in the conference… with a big game between the two coming up on Saturday at Hope. One could argue the game will be the biggest in Alma’s at least recent history.

14 – Amherst^ (Up 1)

15 – St. Norbert (Up 4)
I really expected to see the Green Knights drop a game or two in the Midwest Conference the season. They haven’t lost in conference since 2013(!) and with what they lost during the offseason, this seemed like a safe bet. Nope. Not yet. With their hard fought win over Carroll, SNC has now won 57-straight conference games, have a two-game lead on the conference, and look to be securing yet another conference title and NCAA tournament bid. By the way, have you seen how well the women’s team is playing as well? Time to stop focusing on the WIAC in Wisconsin and take a look at the other green program in Green Bay… because St. Norbert is clearly very, very good.

16 – WPI^ (Down 2)

17 – Chicago^ (Down 5)
Whelp. This past weekend for the Maroons proved one thing: it doesn’t matter how well you are playing, it can change quickly. Emory and Rochester came to the South Side and left Chicago wondering what happened. Chicago didn’t play very well from what I could see. Almost looked like the problems they faced in the opening weeks of the season. Now, Chicago in the difficult situation of having to go to Atlanta and Rochester this coming weekend needing to win to get back in control – or semi control – of the UAA. If not, the automatic bid could be gone and the Maroons will find themselves caught in a very, very difficult Central Region fighting for an at-large bid. It is amazing how quickly things can change.

18 – Lancaster Bible (Unchanged)

19 – Northwestern (Up 2)

PSU-Behrend finally appears on Dave’s ballot. Courtesy: PSU-Behrend Athletics

20 – PSU-Behrend (Unranked)
At some point, a team’s record trumps whatever else I think about them. The Lions only have one loss (LaRoche on Dec. 5) and have now won thirteen in a row while once again rolling through their conference. The problem is, the loss to LaRoche isn’t good and they don’t have an impressive win at all on their resume. Ok, maybe the fact they beat Carnegie Mellon (by 22) and Case Western Reserve should be noted. But that’s it. Nothing else. Behrend is once again in a situation that should they not win the conference AQ they won’t be going to the NCAA Tournament. But again, they have only lost once so far in 18 games. There are a lot of teams who wish they could be winning that many games this season.

21 – Plattsburgh State (Unranked)
I’ve been looking for a reason to get a SUNYAC school on my ballot, especially after I not only swung and missed on Oswego Stae, but also held on to the Lakers far too long. But each week I check out the SUNYAC, they have once again beaten each other up leaving me with no one to pick. Not this week! The Cardinals are actually seemingly pulling away from the rest of the conference. Plattsburgh is two games up on the conference and playing pretty well, but now that the spotlight is on them I am sure the conference will bring them back to earth. Right?

22 – Mount Union (Up 1)

23 – Tufts (Up 1)

24 – Franklin & Marshall^ (Up 1)

Sterling Holmes and his Bulldog teammates have Dave concerned. Could they be coasting?

25 – Texas Lutheran (Down 8)
I am not sure what to think about with the Bulldogs. Dropping eight spots may seem cruel for a team that knocked off their rival for the top of the conference (TLU and Colorado College were tied atop the SCAC entering last weekend), but Texas Lutheran lost the trap game! They went to Centenary (La.) and lost to a team that had lost three straight and is barely above .500. That isn’t good enough! We have entered that part of the season where you can’t skate by and you don’t get second chances. I just feel TLU has moments where they are coasting. Bad sign.

Dropped Out:

Roanoke (Previously 20)
Not a good week if you are a Maroon fan (Chicago or Roanoke) as both squads lost two games back-to-back. For Roanoke, they lost to .500 Randolph and then to sub-par Virginia Wesleyan… both at HOME! For many conferences this season, the top has come down to the middle as it has in the ODAC. Roanoke has a chance to taken advantage of this, but instead squander a chance to take control of the standings. It also set-up a scenario that may leave the ODAC with just one team in the NCAA Tournament.

Brooklyn has tumbled through Dave’s ballot and now out. Courtesy: Brooklyn Athletics

Brooklyn (Previously 22)
It wasn’t that long ago Brooklyn was in my Top 10. They aren’t the first team to be in my Top 10 and then fall out of the poll a few weeks later, they are just the most recent. I am not sure if I bought in too much or if the Bulldogs just aren’t living up to their own expectations. They are battling in what is a far more difficult CUNYAC than in the past, but to be in the Top 25 from that conference you have to take control of the top. Barely beating Lehman and then losing to Staten Island leaving the squad in third place in the conference just isn’t cutting it.

* teams I have seen in person this season
^ teams I have saw in person last season

I am not that comfortable with the bottom half of the ballot. I could go around and around, removing and adding teams for hours. I don’t think I could be comfortable no matter how much time I took. There are a ton of teams with three or four losses that leaves you wanting more – oh, and then add in those five loss teams that seem like they should be in the conversation as well!

I may go back to throwing darts … or blow up the ballot next week.

Previous Ballots:
Week 7
Week 6
Week 5
Week 4
Week 2
Week 1
Preseason