Chaos is the rule, not the exception, in the top 25 polls this week. Losses by four of the men’s top 10 teams last week means that this week’s top 10 has three new members; and losses by three of the top 4 women’s teams caused havoc in the upper echelon of the women’s poll, although the top 11 remained the top 11.
In the women’s poll, Scranton ascends to the #1 spot for the second time this season and the third time overall, joining an elite group of just 20 teams (8 women, 12 men) to reach the top of the poll at least three times. However, as Pat Coleman noted in his blog entry yesterday, the loss last night by the Royals likely means they will enter an even more elite group, joining the Wooster men as the only teams to surrender the #1 spot after just one week on three separate occasions. Last week’s #1 team, Bowdoin, benefitted by losses by Hope and Rochester (twice) to remain at #2, just two points from the top and in a prime position to regain their perch next week. Bowdoin’s vanquisher, Maine Maritime, came close to setting a new record for teams that had no points in the previous week, debuting in the top 25 at #19 with 195 points. (The women’s record for such a jump during the regular season is 199 points, set by Wheaton [IL] in 2002.)
On the men’s side, the loss by St. Thomas to rival St. John’s dropped the Tommies to #6 and helped to establish a distinct lead group of four teams: UW-Stevens Point, Amherst, Wooster, and defending champion Virginia Wesleyan. These are four teams that have had considerable recent success and are well-separated geographically; it would seem more likely than not that they will end up in different sectional brackets, and in my opinion would make an outstanding Final Four. The gap between #4 VWC and #5 Mississippi College is 48 points, or approximately two ballot positions. Losses by Wittenberg, Ohio Northern, and Elmhurst sent them tumbling out of the top 10, replaced by UW-Oshkosh, Hope, and Washington U. in the 8-10 spots. ONU is just 3-3 since defeating Wittenberg, Wooster, and UW-La Crosse and reaching the #2 slot three polls ago.
Streakers:
Women: #3 Messiah is a vote-getter for the 100th time. Congratulations to the Falcons! #8 Rochester and #14 Hardin-Simmons have each been in the top 25 for 10 straight weeks. Wheaton (IL) saw a 31-week voting streak go by the boards this week, and #11 Hope bade farewell to a 15-week string of top 10 appearances..
Men: #3 Wooster is a member of the top 25 for the 70th straight week, remaining two weeks shy of the continuing recordholder, #2 Amherst. Fourth-ranked Virginia Wesleyan has received voting support for 20 consecutive weeks, and Utica is a vote-getter for the tenth straight week since their debut in the final poll last season. #16 Wittenberg saw a 29-week string of top 10 appearances come to an end, and Baldwin-Wallace dropped out of the voting for the first time in 25 polls.
Milestones:
Women: #11 Hope is mentioned among the vote-getters for the 110th time, and Bridgewater (VA) is on the list for the 25th time. #10 DePauw is in the top 10 for the 30th time, and #18 Baldwin-Wallace is a ranked team for the 90th time.
Men: #10 Washington U. rejoins the top 10 this week, their 40th week as a member of this august group. #16 Wittenberg is a top 25 team for the 80th time, while #18 Aurora is ranked for the 10th time. Top-ranked UW-Stevens Point received votes for the 110th time this week; Chicago is a vote-getter for the 40th time; and (as noted above) Utica attracted votes for the 10th week, all of them consecutively.
Debutantes:
Women: #19 Maine Maritime leapt from zero week 7 points to #19 in the week 8 poll, their first ranking ever. #4 Chicago parlayed a victory over then-#2 Rochester into the Maroons’ first-ever top 10 appearance.
Men: none.
High-Water Marks:
Women: For the eighth consecutive week, Howard Payne University set a new all-time high ranking, this time at #6. Close on their heels, #4 Chicago reached a new high for the seventh straight week. Other team reaching their highest ranking in the eight-year history of the poll include #7 Calvin, #16 Illinois Wesleyan, and #21 Kean (tying their debut ranking of last week.)
Men: #5 Mississippi College broke into the top 5 for the first time ever. They are joined in the high-water category by #18 Aurora.
Movers and Shakers:
Women: Maine Maritime made the biggest move of the week, gaining (all of their) 195 points and leaping into the poll at #19. Fourth-ranked Chicago soared 148 points and 7 poll placements. Giving ground was Rochester, who lost twice and dropped 176 points and 6 placements. #11 Hope (-143 points/-7 spots) and #18 Baldwin-Wallace (-129/-6) also fell back this week.
Men: Two teams sustained enormous drops this week: #16 Wittenberg lost at Ohio Wesleyan and divested itself of 255 points and 10 spots in the poll, while then-#16 UW-La Crosse dropped two WIAC contests, costing them their position in the poll as well as 212 points. Most everyone that did not lose moved up modestly; the biggest gainers were #15 Occidental (+96 points/+2 position) and #8 UW-Oshkosh (+94/+4).
David, you have done a good job of seeing a Final Four in this week’s Top 25.
If we assume that #5 MissCollege goes undefeated thru the ASC-East and then wins the conference tourney, which they will host, then they will have an in-region record of 24-0. Do they host a regional? We could send an SCAC team like Millsaps or Rhodes (but not Centre), but Maryville TN is now (in 2007) 506 miles away by the new mileage software, msn.mappoint.com (shortest possible distance). That means two teams fly into Clinton. Are they bracketed with the “northern” half of the South Region, i.e., VWC, for the Sectional? VWC can win their remaining 9 conference games and 3 games in the tourney for a 25-2 in-region record. There are several Atlantic Region teams plus the USASAC champ that are close.
Your thoughts, please.
Note: we’re talking men’s hoops here.
Well, not to be pedantic, but MC would first have to win a second-round game (and perhaps a first-rounder, depending on byes) before considering whether they can host a sectional. If the Chocs win out as you suggest, and advance to the sectionals, then (not knowing their QoWI) they’d probably be an excellent choice to host a sectional. But it all depends on who the other 15 second-round winners are. It seems clear to me that UW-Stevens Point and Amherst have clear inside tracks to host sectionals. Wooster’s path is less clear, with a somewhat deficient QoWI in a tough region. VWC and MC both could be good candidates, but then again so could many other teams, such as (just off the top of my head) Hope, Wash U., Elmhurst, Whitworth…this list could go on.
I don’t think the NCAA would hesitate (much) in establishing a sectional in the Golden Dome if the Chocs’ c.v. supports it. You know as well as anyone that unfavorable geography is not a complete bar to hosting, as you followed Sul Ross on their trip to the Tacoma sectional three years ago. If Tacoma is okay, then Clinton is okay too.
At this point in the season, I expect Virginia Wesleyan to be bracketed in what we think of as the Mid-Atlantic/Atlantic sectional, while MC participates in the the Great Lakes/South sectional like usual.
MissCollege into the Great Lakes and Wooster and VWC hosting the Atlantic/Mid-Atlantic makes sense, and I think that is how VWC gets back to the Final Four. Thanks.
On women’s side. David…any guess as to how many times #1 has been knocked out by a loss to an unranked, unvoted upon team???
I’m not sure where you have Wooster there, Ralph; in the Great Lakes with MC, or in the A/MA with Va. Wesleyan? We’ve all speculated for years about how well the brackets fall out if you match up Wooster with Penna/NY/NJ/DC area teams rather than Ohio/Michigan teams, but it’s only happened once, in 2003, when Wooster hosted a sectional with Ramapo, Scranton, and Montclair St. That’s why I currently think Wooster and VWC are both final four candidates rather than an either/or proposition.
My guess, and it’s just a guess, is never. I’m kind of a novice to the women’s game, but it seems to me that #1 turnover is far less frequent for the women. That may have something to do with the fact that Wash. U. has been #1 53 out of a possible 115 times. 🙂 My first thought was that Ohio Wesleyan might have done it in their magical 2001 tourney run, but they lost to Messiah in the national semifinals, and the #1 team and eventual champion was (of course) Wash U.
Maybe someone with more women’s hoops expertise knows the answer to this question.
I do think the NCAA would be very hesitant to send a sectional to MC based on prior history. Travel just seems to be too large an obstacle to overome and three teams would have to be flown in, although I know there is precedent with Puget Sound. MC is only 15 minutes from the state’s largest airport in Jackson, we have an outstanding facility and hotels are plentiful.
MC has been the top-ranked South Region team in every weekly regional ranking the last two seasons and had a QOWI over 11 last year. I hope I am wrong, but the scenario you and Ralph laid out looks to be highly probably granted those teams keep winning.
“Any guess as to how many times #1 has been knocked out by a loss to an unranked, unvoted upon team???”
If we’re taking “knocked out of the women’s tournament,” the answer is zero. In fact, every top-ranked team but one (Wash U in 2002) has made the final four.
Here are the teams who were ranked No. 1 going into the tournament and whom they lost to (if anyone).
2006: No. 1 Southern Maine lost to No. 6 Hope in the National Championship.
2005: No. 1 Scranton lost to No. 5 Randolph-Macon in the National Semifinals.
2004: No. 1 Bowdoin lost to No. 14 Wilmington in the National Championship.
2003: No. 1 UW-Eau Claire lost to No. 20 Eastern Connecticut in the National Semifinals.
2002: No. 1 Wash U lost to No. 9 UW-Stevens Point in their first tournament game.
2001: No. 1 Wash U won the National Championship.
2000: No. 1 Wash U won the National Championship.
Incidentally those results are also why I would hesitate to vote for a Mid-Atlantic or Northeast Region team as No. 1 in the poll.
The best team in those regions haven’t been the best in the country in quite a while.
David, I think that a strong VWC “pulls” the eastern longitude teams down to Norfolk. I can get 11 Pool A’s and a Pool B into Norfolk easily…ODAC, USAC, CAC, PnAC, NJAC, Skyline, MAC-C, MAC-F, CUNYAC, Centennial, and maybe the NEAC (Chestnut Hill, Baptist Bible or VJC). Maryville TN is 500.9 miles from VWC’s Zip code, 23502. (We need some refinement on the precision of the mappoint calculation.) Thus, you need 3 Pool C’s to make a bracket of 15.
Amherst can pull 10 Pool A bids: NESCAC, NEWMAC, CCC, MASACAC, CCC, GNAC, NAC, SUNYAC, LL and E8. Add 4 Pool C bids and make Amherst the #1 seed (by a lofty QOWI) and we have a bracket of 14.
Go West to UW-SP and we add these 9 Pool A bids: NWC, SCIAC, MIAC, IIAC, MWC, WIAC, CCIW, SLIAC, and my pick from the UAA (WashStL) and Pool B Aurora and 5 Pool C’s and you have a 15 team bracket.
This allows Wooster to attract the Great Lakes/Midwest. Give me 7 Pool A’s, (NCAC, OAC, MIAA, HCAC, AMCC, ASC, SCAC), Pool B Westminster PA and 7 Pool C bids. That is a 15 team bracket.
This is my first attempt to fill out the brackets: 39 Pool A’s, 3 Pool B’s and 19 Pool C’s.
Or send Maryville TN to Wooster and another Pool C to Norfolk. That might be more plausible.
Yes, clearly UW-SP, Wooster, VWC, and Amherst are well-positioned both geographically and performance-wise to host sectionals. That was the essence of my original point, that for the first time in a while, the teams ranked #1-#4 look a lot like a Final Four. A top four that includes both UW-SP and St. Thomas, or both Wooster and ONU, does not look like a Final Four because these teams won’t be able to avoid each other in the sectionals. This top 4 doesn’t appear to have that problem.
But they have other problems; significantly, Wooster has just lost their starting center and possible team MVP for the season; UW-SP still has to finish their meatgrinder of a conference season; Amherst has had injury problems all season; and VWC….well, the Marlins look like a lock, as long as Brandon Adair stays healthy. 😉
I don’t mean to be predicting a Final Four, it’s far too early to do that. I’m just glad to see that there’s a top 4 that look to have separate roads, unlike 2000, when the top 4 teams were all bracketed into the same sectional (as Ralph remembers quite well.)
why is capital not getting any respect eight game win streak past week knocked off baldwin wallace then beat willmington both teams at that time ranked in the top fifteen.
I think they’ll get some votes this week. This is still last week’s poll.
when does the polls come out