Still the One?

For a little while now we’ve been down to one undefeated team on the men’s side, Amherst. And by that I mean one team with no loses at all, not teams without losses to Division III opponents. Sorry, UW-Stevens Point – more on you in a bit.

But does being the last undefeated team correlate with a deep run into the tournament? Maybe its better to be ranked number 1, which accounts for strength of schedule and other factors beyond win-loss percentages. Or maybe neither means all that much. After all, last year’s champion Virginia Wesleyan lost its first game of the year and was ranked 23rd at this point last season.

Here is how the last undefeated team and the team ranked No. 1 in Week 8 have fared in recent years. The national champion and their record in Week 8 are also noted.

2005-06
Last undefeated: Lawrence (starting 25-0) loses first game to Illinois Wesleyan in regional semifinals.
No. 1: Wittenberg (16-1) finishes season with a loss in the national finals to Virginia Wesleyan.
Eventual champion: Virginia Wesleyan (16-3) was ranked 23rd.

2004-05
Last undefeated: St. John Fisher (starting 28-0) loses first game to Potsdam State in regional finals.
No. 1: UW-Stevens Point (13-1) wins the national championship.
Eventual champion: See above

2003-04
Last undefeated: Rochester (starting 19-0) loses first game to Washington University on February 8 and finishes the year losing in the regional semifinals to Keene State.
No. 1: Amherst (13-0) loses to Williams in the national semifinals.
Eventual champion: UW-Stevens Point (12-3) was ranked 14th.

2002-03
Last undefeated: Washington University (23-0) loses first game to Rochester on Feb. 23 and finishes the year losing its first NCAA Tournament game to Illinois Wesleyan
No. 1: Washington U was ranked No. 1.
Eventual champion: Eventual champion Williams (14-1) was ranked 7th.

So there you have it — undeniable proof that it’s better to be neither undefeated nor ranked number one at this point in the season. In fact, averaging the ranking of the eventual champions, it looks like the magic ranking to have is about No. 11. Good news for you Elmhurst fans!

Or maybe this just proves that it’s just better to be UW-Stevens Point since they’ve won half the titles in this too-tiny sample.

Or maybe it proves that I have too much free time on my hands.

2 thoughts on “Still the One?

  1. I love it when people post things like this, because I do it all the time (at least in my head). It makes me happy to know that there are a few other crazies out there that think about DIII stuff a little too much. 😉

    “it looks like the magic ranking to have is about No. 11. Good news for you Elmhurst fans!”
    Woo CCIW! Making headway on the WIAC for total number of championships. 😉

    Point Special, I’m just grateful that when I saw you guys play that game against Whitewater toward the end of the regular season your first Championship Run, I knew, and there was still plenty of room for me on the bandwagon. 🙂

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