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Around the Nation Podcast 222: We predict at-large teams

Often this time of year we do a projected Division III NCAA Tournament field, but this year we’re so busy making podcasts that we didn’t do one. Instead, Pat and Keith are doing both at the same time: talking through the process of selecting at-large teams right on this podcast.

This is a projected playoff field if the season ended today. All six teams that we got to choose can affect their playoff resume on the field on Saturday, and for that matter, so can all of the teams with automatic bids. Even those who are already in the field could impact their seeding with a loss or by winning while others around them lose.

And those are just the normal scenarios. We could see crazy scenarios, such as, say, last year when Carnegie Mellon committed a penalty and had a punt blocked to kill its potential upset of Case Western Reserve. What are the unlikely, but awesome scenarios that could occur? Greg Thomas threw a few out there and we discuss those as well.

Plus Kevin Bullis tells us how his UW-Whitewater team is looking entering Week 11, Keith asks Pat what could go wrong with this projection and Pat asks Keith to figure out what the Mayors Cup is. That and more in the D3football.com Around the Nation podcast. The D3football.com Around the Nation Podcast is a regular conversation between Pat Coleman and Keith McMillan and guests covering the wide range of Division III football.

Hit play, or subscribe to get this podcast on your mobile device.
Full episode:

You can subscribe to the Around the Nation Podcast in iTunes. You can also get this and any of our future Around the Nation podcasts automatically by subscribing to this RSS feed: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3football/?feed=podcast

Link: NCAA Division III playoff criteria, from our FAQ
Link: Playoff primer podcast (No. 216, with committee chair Jim Catanzaro)

Photo: Frostburg State back Grayson Boyce (Frostburg State athletics photo)

Theme music: DJmentos.

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Around the Nation Podcast 206: That one game was enough, but we still got more

We could spend a lot of time talking about the Mount Union-John Carroll game, and all of its ramifications — so we’ll do that. For a while, for sure. But there were plenty of other games of note on Saturday in Week 4, so we’ll have plenty to talk about.

Off the beaten path, we have a team which scored 21 points in the fourth quarter to win. We have a team which rushed for minus-50 yards, and won. We talk about the fifth-down play which wasn’t really a fifth-down play. We replace divots — who replaces divots anymore? Who even has grass fields anymore? And how did one MIAC team try to keep its beatdown of an opponent in check.

But hey, more about Mount Union — why is this win important? And what do Pat and Keith think should happen to John Carroll in the poll? And who gets Keith’s game ball?

That and more on the Game Day version of the D3football.com Around the Nation Podcast. The D3football.com Around the Nation Podcast is a regular conversation between Pat Coleman and Keith McMillan and guests covering the wide range of Division III football. 

Hit play, or subscribe to get this podcast on your mobile device.
Full episode: 

You can subscribe to the Around the Nation Podcast in iTunes. You can also get this and any of our future Around the Nation podcasts automatically by subscribing to this RSS feed: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3football/?feed=podcast

Photo: Mount Union defender Danny Robinson with the ball in the end zone (Photo by Dan Poel, Ohiosi.com)

Purchase Football For a Buck: The Crazy Rise and Crazier Demise of the USFL from Amazon (and D3football.com gets a buck or so in the process).

 

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Quick Hits predicts the first round’s scores

The story goes, one day on a long ride to a playoff game at Thiel (which tells you how long ago this happened), Pat and Keith decided to pass the time by guessing not just the winner of each first-round playoff game, but the score. And there was born the expectations game: Do we expect a close game? A high-scoring game? A blowout? Does everyone agree on who will win? Those are the factors worth looking at.

Keith McMillan, Ryan Tipps, Pat Coleman, Adam Turer, Frank Rossi and Greg Thomas each take their guesses at scores for each first-round game. We also looped in the Hansen Ratings, updated with playoff experience as a factor, for anther objective take. The algorithm takes into account both home-field advantage and playoff experience, so a game such as Hardin-Simmons and Linfield, between teams with identical team ratings, ends up with Linfield given a 65 percent chance to win.

— Pat Coleman (Linfield athletics photo)

 

UW-Oshkosh bracket
Keith’s take: UW-Oshkosh 56, Lakeland 21
Ryan’s take: UW-Oshkosh 49, Lakeland 13
Pat’s take: UW-Oshkosh 47, Lakeland 13
Adam’s take: UW-Oshkosh 52, Lakeland 7
Frank’s take: UW-Oshkosh 34, Lakeland 6
Greg’s take: UW-Oshkosh 52, Lakeland 14
Hansen odds to advance: UW-Oshkosh, 99%.
Consensus:
 UW-Oshkosh in a walk, though Lakeland could score a few points.
Keith’s take: North Central 22, St. John’s 21
Ryan’s take: North Central 27, St. John’s 23
Pat’s take: North Central 31, St. John’s 28
Adam’s take: North Central 10, St. John’s 7
Frank’s take: St. John’s 21, North Central 20
Greg’s take: North Central 24, St. John’s 23
Hansen odds to advance: St. John’s, 58%.
Consensus:
North Central, in a close game, and a split decision.
Keith’s take: Wartburg 38, Franklin 24
Ryan’s take: Wartburg 30, Franklin 27
Pat’s take: Wartburg 45, Franklin 31
Adam’s take: Wartburg 35, Franklin 27
Frank’s take: Wartburg 44, Franklin 31
Greg’s take: Wartburg 38, Franklin 28
Hansen odds to advance: Wartburg, 79%.
Consensus:
Wartburg the consensus winner, though everyone respect’s Franklin’s ability to score.
Keith’s take: Trine 19, Monmouth 16
Ryan’s take: Monmouth 31, Trine 20
Pat’s take: Monmouth 31, Trine 28
Adam’s take: Trine 17, Monmouth 13
Frank’s take: Trine 48, Monmouth 40
Greg’s take: Trine 38, Monmouth 28
Hansen odds to advance: Trine, 58%.
Consensus:
Wide variety of opinions. Two Trine slugfest wins, two Trine defensive battle wins, two Monmouth wins.
Mount Union bracket
Keith’s take: Mount Union 56, Wash. & Lee 14
Ryan’s take: Mount Union 51, Wash. & Lee 7
Pat’s take: Mount Union 48, Wash. & Lee 10
Adam’s take: Mount Union 49, Wash. & Lee 20
Frank’s take: Mount Union 60, Wash. & Lee 10
Greg’s take: Mount Union 56, Wash. & Lee 7
Hansen odds to advance: Mount Union, 99%.
Consensus:
Mount Union, in a win that a No. 1 seed would be satisfied with.
Keith’s take: Illinois Wesleyan 35, Case 13
Ryan’s take: Illinois Wesleyan 31, Case 21
Pat’s take: Illinois Wesleyan 35, Case 17
Adam’s take: Illinois Wesleyan 21, Case 16
Frank’s take: Case 31, Illinois Wesleyan 30
Greg’s take: Illinois Wesleyan 28, Case 10
Hansen odds to advance: Illinois Wesleyan, 61%.
Consensus:
IWU generally winning handily, with one outlier.
Keith’s take: W&J 42, Johns Hopkins 30
Ryan’s take: Johns Hopkins 35, W&J 34
Pat’s take: Johns Hopkins 28, W&J 24
Adam’s take: Johns Hopkins 38, W&J 34
Frank’s take: Johns Hopkins 35, W&J 28
Greg’s take: Johns Hopkins 27, W&J 24
Hansen odds to advance: Johns Hopkins, 68%.
Consensus:
Wow. Consensus is the road team. But consensus is also an exciting game.
Keith’s take: Wittenberg 17, Frostburg State 14
Ryan’s take: Frostburg State 27, Wittenberg 24
Pat’s take: Wittenberg 17, Frostburg State 15
Adam’s take: Wittenberg 30, Frostburg State 24
Frank’s take: Frostburg State 27, Wittenberg 24
Greg’s take: Wittenberg 14, Frostburg State 10
Hansen odds to advance: Wittenberg, 59%.
Consensus:
Generally low-scoring, all around, and generally with Wittenberg by a field goal or less.
Mary Hardin-Baylor bracket
Keith’s take: UMHB 40, Chapman 20
Ryan’s take: UMHB 48, Chapman 10
Pat’s take: UMHB 42, Chapman 17
Adam’s take: UMHB 58, Chapman 10
Frank’s take: UMHB 37, Chapman 10
Greg’s take: UMHB 48, Chapman 7
Hansen odds to advance: Mary Hardin-Baylor, 98%.
Consensus:
The defending champs, by a lot.
Keith’s take: Hardin-Simmons 14, Linfield 13
Ryan’s take: Hardin-Simmons 27, Linfield 14
Pat’s take: Hardin-Simmons 24, Linfield 19
Adam’s take: Hardin-Simmons 21, Linfield 17
Frank’s take: Linfield 14, Hardin-Simmons 10
Greg’s take: Hardin-Simmons 24, Linfield 10
Hansen odds to advance: Linfield, 65%.
Consensus:
HSU favored on the road, with Linfield kicking an undetermined number of field goa.s.
Keith’s take: St. Thomas 63, Eureka 0
Ryan’s take: St. Thomas 58, Eureka 7
Pat’s take: St. Thomas 56, Eureka 6
Adam’s take: St. Thomas 63, Eureka 13
Frank’s take: St. Thomas 51, Eureka 13
Greg’s take: St. Thomas 63, Eureka 0
Hansen odds to advance: St. Thomas, > 99%.
Consensus:
Tommies. Not in a mood to break scoring records.
Keith’s take: Berry 28, Huntingdon 24
Ryan’s take: Berry 35, Huntingdon 28
Pat’s take: Berry 24, Huntingdon 21
Adam’s take: Berry 27, Huntingdon 24
Frank’s take: Huntingdon 34, Berry 28
Greg’s take: Berry 28, Huntingdon 17
Hansen odds to advance: Huntingdon, 57%.
Consensus:
Berry. Mostly. Except for the one usual outlier.
Delaware Valley bracket
Keith’s take: Delaware Valley 38, Western NE 20
Ryan’s take: Delaware Valley 49, Western NE 17
Pat’s take: Delaware Valley 31, Western NE 10
Adam’s take: Delaware Valley 35, Western NE 14
Frank’s take: Delaware Valley 30, Western NE 21
Greg’s take: Delaware Valley 33, Western NE 13
Hansen odds to advance: Delaware Valley, 95%
Consensus:
Delaware Valley, by a range of points but all by multiple scores.
Keith’s take: Springfield 42, Husson 28
Ryan’s take: Springfield 38, Husson 35
Pat’s take: Springfield 45, Husson 31
Adam’s take: Springfield 38, Husson 24
Frank’s take: Springfield 42, Husson 20
Greg’s take: Springfield 42, Husson 21
Hansen odds to advance: Springfield, 83%
Consensus:
Springfield, generally comfortable, generally in a high-scoring game.
Keith’s take: Brockport 39, Plymouth State 13
Ryan’s take: Brockport 35, Plymouth State 10
Pat’s take: Brockport 24, Plymouth State 7
Adam’s take: Brockport 28, Plymouth State 20
Frank’s take: Brockport 27, Plymouth State 7
Greg’s take: Brockport 24, Plymouth State 7
Hansen odds to advance: Brockport, 99%
Consensus:
Brockport, generally comfortably, generally in a low-scoring game.
Keith’s take: Wesley 27, RPI 10
Ryan’s take: Wesley 38, RPI 6
Pat’s take: Wesley 38, RPI 14
Adam’s take: Wesley 41, RPI 12
Frank’s take: Wesley 37, RPI 17
Greg’s take: Wesley 38, RPI 10
Hansen odds to advance: Wesley, 91%
Consensus:
Wesley makes it final: No upsets expected in this bracket.

Here’s more data from Hansen Ratings. Select any two playoff teams to see how they would compare in a real or hypothetical matchup

We invite you to add your predictions in the comments below, or tweet at @d3football. Download the Around the Nation podcast on Mondays, where Pat and Keith review the picks and the highlights from the first round.