Tag Archives: Top 25

Dave’s Top 25 ballot: Week 11

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This week was hard. Plain and simple. Hard.

The most challenging part was picking a number one team. Simply put: who really is the best team in the country this season? There is no way there will be a consensus pick (as I write this before the rankings have been published). I ended up coming down to picking between four teams. I could see an argument for six.

I considered St. Thomas, UW-Whitewater, Randolph-Macon, and Babson and eventually went with … Randolph-Macon. It wasn’t easy. I probably thought about the number one vote in some capacity for three or so hours. I mulled over schedules, results, SOS numbers, lottery numbers, quantum physics, and even threw a dart or two. Every single team I considered had results on their schedules I didn’t like, flaws with their teams, and concerns with the last two weeks. There just wasn’t a team that jumped up and looked like a number one team.

But it got harder after that. So many teams once again lost last week. I had twelve losses on my previous ballot. Not a record, but certainly not good. I tried to stick with many of the “rules” I had set to governing how I moved teams around, but some of those rules (like losing to a team ranked ahead of you) got me in trouble with leaving teams on my ballot that really argued to not be there anymore. And of course with a season so wide open, there are far more teams I am considering for the Top 25 than I have room for on my ballot.

As always before we begin, here is a look at last week’s ballot:

1 – St. Thomas
2 – UW-Whitewater
3 – Marietta
4 – Randolph-Macon
5 – Babson
6 – Virginia Wesleyan
7 – St. Norbert
8 – Augustana
9 – WPI
10 – Dickinson
11 – Chapman
12 – Albertus Magnus
13 – St. John Fisher
14 – UW-Stevens Point
15 – Johns Hopkins
16 – Emory
17 – Ill. Wesleyan
18 – Ohio Wesleyan
19 – Whitworth
20 – Elmhurst
21 – Catholic
22 – Wooster
23 – New York Univ.
24 – Washington Univ.
25 – Chicago

And now on to this week’s ballot with some explanations for some of the moves:

1 – Randolph-Macon* (Up 4)
I’d be lying if I told you this felt comfortable. The loss at home to Frostburg State on November 30 still bothers me. But here is the kicker: The Yellow Jackets haven’t loss since. 18 straight. And with an ever larger target on their back, Randolph-Macon continues to get the job done even when the games might not be pretty. We already know RMC is playing in one of the toughest conferences in the country, but they have also beaten everyone including Virginia Wesleyan twice. Undefeated in the ODAC with two to play… that just doesn’t happen! In fact, the last time a team went undefeated in the ODAC was 2000 (Hampden-Sydney)!

2 – UW-Whitewater (Unchanged)
It came down to the fact I couldn’t knock the Warhawks for losing to a certainly underrated UW-Stevens Point squad. Furthermore, Whitewater didn’t have probably their best player on the floor due to apparently a personal matter (just as Stevens Point didn’t have their best player on the floor due to injury when the two teams first met). Maybe I am giving the Warhawks a little too much credit since they have three losses – two of them in Division III. However, there is something unflappable about UWW that just makes me feel fine with them at number two.

3 – Babson (Up 2)
I think the Beavers are underrated. They have lost twice to very good teams, Bates and WPI, and avenged that conference loss to WPI* a few weeks ago. Certainly they have had some tight games, but they are winning and getting contributions deep on their bench. They have also played a far more difficult schedule than people want to give them credit for including wins over Bowdoin and Amherst this season.

4 – St. Thomas (Down 3)
I actually debated about leaving the Tommies in first despite their loss. Heck, UW-Whitewater would have moved up one despite a loss if I had given them number one slot. However, it came down to the fact St. Thomas lost to a middle-of-the-MIAC team in Concordia-Moorhead and thus couldn’t put the MIAC regular season title further out of reach with three games left to play. Call it a mental lapse. That loss to Moorhead is worse than the loss to Stevens Point for Whitewater and thus why the Tommies fell three spots.

5 – Augustana (Up 3)
Not only did the Vikings get a big win over Illinois Wesleyan in dominating fashion on the road (82-56), they avoided the mental collapse in the trap game that followed against Millikin. That performance means the CCIW playoffs will have to go through Rock Island where, despite IWU’s earlier win this season, is not the easiest place to play in the Midwest. I realize I might be buying in a little too much with Augustana since we aren’t that far removed from the collapse against North Park and North Central in back-to-back games, but I also think those games woke Augustana up.

6 – St. Norbert (Up 1)
I’m not sure I can keep moving St. Norbert up. They have a slightly below average SOS and their conference just isn’t that competitive at the top (the Green Knights have won 41 straight conference games). I’m only setting myself up for disappointment if St. Norbert doesn’t go far in the NCAA tournament because, remember, this is still a somewhat young team.

7 – WPI* (Up 2)

8 – UW-Stevens Point (Up 6)
I am fully on board with the Pointers, now. Message received. I have been downplaying Stevens Point all season, but finally woke up a few weeks ago. They have their best player back and the win over UW-Whitewater looks to make the conference home court decision come down to a coin flip – yes, a coin flip. Well done Pointers.

9 – Virginia Wesleyan (Down 3)

10 – Dickinson (Unchanged)
Well, I was going to ding the Red Devils pretty good for their loss to McDaniel*. However, reports were they had a lot of players sick which happens this time of year. That didn’t mean I wasn’t going to move them down a couple of spots anyway until they turned around and beat Johns Hopkins* to at least make the Centennial finish a little more interesting.

11 – Marietta (Down 8)
It is one thing to lose your unbeaten streak at this point in the season, but I thought Marietta could at least stop it at one loss. Nope… two. Everyone knew this past week was going to be tough with Mount Union and John Carroll on the schedule, but I figured at worst it would be 1-1 for the Pioneers. Hopefully Marietta stops the latest streak in its tracks or they could be in trouble. The only reason I didn’t move Marietta even further down for two untimely losses… the simple fact they lost to two very competitive teams in their conference.

12 – Albertus Magnus (Unchanged)

13 – St. John Fisher (Unchanged)

14 – Emory (Up 2)
Held serve at home. Very important weekend for the Eagles and they got the job done against Washington Univ.* and Chicago*. That makes up for the trip to the Midwest where they lost both of those games. Now Emory is in a bit more control of the rest of the season and it’s thanks to the fact most of the back-end of their conference schedule lets them enjoy their Atlanta home.

15 – Johns Hopkins* (Unchanged)

16 – Ohio Wesleyan (Up 2)

17 – Elmhurst (Up 3)

18 – Chapman (Down 7)
I know they only lost one game this past week, but after starting the season undefeated the Panthers have now lost three of their last five including to two teams in the middle of the conference standings. And with that Chapman has also lost some control of whether the SCIAC playoffs come through Harold Hutton Sports Center. Their game against Cal Lutheran this weekend looms very large.

19 – Whitworth (Unchanged)

20 – Catholic* (Up 1)
I got to see the Cardinals in person for a third time this season and the first since the Hoopsville Classic and they are very much improved. However, I still have some concerns. They beat Goucher* 100-85 with their starters scoring 97 of their points. There just isn’t a lot of contributions from the bench except in minutes and some defensive help. If Catholic wants to make a run this year, I think they need more than minutes coming off their bench. They need some offensive help.

21 – Wooster (Up 1)

22 – New York Univ.* (Unchanged)

23 – St. Olaf (Unranked)
My concerns for the Oles may have been premature. Since losing back-to-back games, St. Olaf has won seven straight to leave themselves a half game behind St. Thomas atop the MIAC. And of course, they have a showdown with the Tommies coming up on Monday (as I write this). It is a big game for both teams. St. Thomas wants to not have a losing streak and St. Olaf would love to wrestle the regular season title and home court advantage away from the Tommies. Should be a great game in St. Paul.

24 – Washington Univ.* (Unchanged)
I probably should have dropped the Bears, but am sticking it out for another week. This split-the-weekend experience is getting old even if it is in the tough UAA. I realize the loss to Emory on the road doesn’t look bad on paper, but WashU is 4-4 in their last eight and 6-5 in conference action! In hindsight, I really should have dropped them. However, they have three straight home games remaining against NYU*, Brandeis, and Chicago* and those games could not loom larger.

25 – Penn State-Behrend (Unranked)
I’ve got nothing witty to say about the Lions except they have only lost two games this season, so it is probably about time to recognize that fact. Their SOS is pretty poor which tells you they are winning their games in a below-average conference and a not-so-great out-of-conference schedule. However, they are still winning (10 straight) and that can’t be discounted too much.

Dropped out:

Illinois Wesleyan (Previously 17)
If the Titans only loss this past week had been to Augustana, fine. If they had kept the game against the Vikings close, fine. But you get trounced by Augustana and you lost to North Park who you know has been gunning and beating plenty of good teams and I have seen enough. I realize the CCIW is tough this year, but Illinois Wesleyan is just so inconsistent this season. I just can’t keep rewarding IWU when can’t seem to win games they should be winning. Not to mention the fact, they cost themselves home court in the CCIW tournament as well.

Chicago* (Previously 25)
I have stated it often here, I don’t knock teams for losing to teams I have ranked higher. My ballot clearly states I expect that loss to happen. In other words, the loss to Emory by Chicago was expected. And until the very last minute I wasn’t going to drop Chicago. But it bothered me. As with WashU*, Chicago has been inconsistent in a very tough UAA. 4-4 in their last eight losing to nearly the same teams WashU has (except for Brandeis). So it came down to this, while the loss to Emory was close… 15-7 in the Top 25 seemed inappropriate. I still like the Maroons as a team and think next year they are going to be dangerous. They are home for the next two including a very important game against NYU. Then they hit the road where WashU is looking for some payback. Interesting finish to the UAA schedule is an understatement.

* – seen in person this season.

Previous ballots:
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10

Dave’s Top 25 ballot: Week 5

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Well the holidays are over and the second part of the basketball season is starting. All of that combined makes this Top 225 ballot and the next few the most interesting. First off, voters end up learning a bit more about the teams when we have a couple weeks of games to consider over the holiday break. Secondly, when conference schedules really ramp up those teams that looked good in the first two months plus will either continue to excel or show their true flaws. This can be very rewarding to Top 25 voters when teams they think are good prove they are or very demoralizing when a voter has to feel like they have to blow their ballot up and start over (which happens to me at least twice a year).

This week’s ballot was full of questions and second-guessing for me. The bounty of games since the last vote helped me understand some teams better while at the same time revealed a major “hole” in the middle of by ballot. I have teams sitting in the 10-15 slot that I just don’t feel should be there, but someone has to occupy those ballot positions. Furthermore, I always find it hard to move teams up when they have lost a game, but this is the type of week where a loss can be easily outweighed by three or four wins or by what other teams are doing around them on my ballot. At least three teams moved up despite losing a game while another didn’t move at all. At the same time, some teams who lost a game feel further down than others and one team that didn’t lose any games still slide down.

Before we get to this week’s ballot, here is a look at what my Top 25 looked like for Week 4 which was posted on December 16:

1 – UW-Stevens Point
2 – Illinois Wesleyan
3 – Williams
4 – Cabrini
5 – Wooster
6 – Amherst
7 – St. Thomas
8 – WPI
9 – Calvin
10 – UW-Whitewater
11 – St. Mary’s
12 – Middlebury
13 – Wittenberg
14 – Wheaton (Ill.)
15 – Augustana
16 – Guilford
17 – Wash U.
18 – Virginia Wesleyan
19 – Wesley
20 – St. Norbert
21 – Eastern Connecticut St.
22 – Whitworth
23 – Stevenson
24 – Christopher Newport
25 – UW-Stout

Now to this week’s ballot:

1 – UW-Stevens Point (Unchanged)
Having now seen the Pointers in person, I am more convinced they are the number one team in the country. They have had battles against UW-Whitewater, St. Thomas, Whitworth, Whitman, North Central and UW-La Crosse in six of the last seven games and found a way to win. Even when Tillema isn’t playing well, Haas is. They have incredible role players that can step out when needed and they don’t panic (heck, Coach Semling stands during most games with his hands in his pockets even if the team is trailing late). This team kind of reminds me of the back-to-back championship teams who were lead by Jason Kalsow and Nick Bennett and that should give everyone pause.

2 – Illinois Wesleyan (Unchanged)
The Titans continue to win. They have a lunch pail mentality and blew through some teams during the holidays. This Titan squad looks better than last year’s team that nearly went undefeated in the CCIW.

3 – Cabrini (Up 1)
The Cavaliers just keep winning and they have one of the best players in the country in Aaron Walton-Moss who is playing the entire season this year. The Mid-Atlantic is also talking about the fact Cabrini may have once again brought in a key player during the semester break which could make a difference in the last three months (remember Walton-Moss’ impact two years ago?). The Cavaliers now enter a part of the season where they may not lose another game before entering the NCAA tournament. They do have a game to make-up, we hope, with Wesley which could be the only real challenge they see along with two games against Keystone.

4 – Wooster (Up 1)
I am not sure why Wooster decided to go to Arizona and play two NAIA schools, but they did and came out of the trip 1-1. I struggle to gauge a team that loses to an NAIA team because no matter how much research I do (and maybe waste) on NAIA teams, I don’t really trust what I am reading or understanding. Did the loss by two to Arizona Christian who is 13-1 show Wooster is that good? Or is Arizona Christian overrated? Ask ten people you will probably get ten different points of view. I moved Wooster up one spot because Arizona Christian is 13-1 after all and the Scots where playing them on the second of back-to-back days. Wooster looks good this season, but with two games against Wittenberg looming and a conference that includes Ohio Wesleyan looking to knock the Scots off… their season is really only beginning.

5 – WPI (Up 3)
The Engineers continue to win despite not having their best player the entire season, but I am nervous with them this high in my poll. The win after the break against cross-town rival Becker was a good way to get back into things, but their next five games are against the top of the NEWMAC (Springfield, MIT, Babson, Emerson, and Clark. I think the Engineers are going to be just as good as last year, if not better, but they have to get through these next five as unscathed as possible. Win all of them and my concern with them being this high will ease.

6 – Williams (Down 3)
Not the start I was looking for from the Ephs coming out of their holiday break. They won all of the games during the break, but they didn’t show me they are in sync. Only beating Washington College (3-7) by eight, Washington & Lee (4-7) by two and Hampden-Sydney (7-4) by two is not what I expect from a Top 5 or a Top 10 team. However, they didn’t lose so I didn’t slide them down too far. However, I now wonder if the Ephs are bit overrated.

7 – St. Thomas (Unchanged)
The Tommies only played one game in the last few weeks and it was against UW-Stevens Point… a game they lost by 13. Considering how well UWSP is playing and that at the time it was the second closest game the Pointers had played actually tells me more about St. Thomas. This is a group that has been playing very well for a number of years including knocking on the door of a championship game last season. St. Thomas may have lost a number of key guys from that squad, but they continue to find talent and play good basketball night in and night out. St. Thomas may surprise some people come the end of the season.

8 – UW-Whitewater (Up 2)
The Warhawks are up two spots thanks to their loss to UW-Stevens Point not looking too shabby and the fact they went 5-0 during the break though none of the teams jumps out on paper – Warhawks did dominate most of the games. UW-Whitewater is going to be a handful this season and after watching three WIAC schools in Vegas I am now very comfortable considering them a Top 10 team.

9 – Amherst (Down 3)
How do you read into a loss to Nova Southeastern which is a Division II school especially when the score is 105-101. Knocking the Lord Jeffs down three spots is hard when they are playing a higher division opponent, but the move down isn’t really about the Lord Jeffs as it is about the teams ahead and around them. I moved Williams down who I think is even or slightly better than Amherst and the teams around them I think have proven they are playing better basketball. Also, where was the defense for Amherst against Nova Southeastern? I still think Amherst is a Top 10 team, but I expected a better result against a 3-9 opponent.

10 – St. Mary’s (Md.) (Up 1)
Talk about a rough first half of the season. The Seahawks played some very difficult opponents and loss more than I expected, but they also showed they are going to be a tough team to beat. I think so voters knocked them too hard for their loss to Mary Washington, though the loss to DeSales is inexcusable. They recovered with a win in conference against a tough Marymount squad. I moved them up, though, based more on those who fell around them.

11 – Wittenberg (Up 2)
The Tigers just can’t be beat right now. They are steal rolling through opponents which you would expect considering their opponents’ records are not that great. However, I have said before that these are the kind of results voters are looking for when you play sub-par teams. Wittenberg looks good so far this season and will give Wooster a run for their money, but first they will have to deal with a resurgent Ohio Wesleyan squad.

12 – Augustana (Up 3)
I am worried I am buying in a little too much with the Vikings. 11-1 is a terrific start to the year and their wins over two WIAC schools was very good. Then they beat Carthage who is always tough. I like how Augustana is playing and making sure to finish games, but I will really get better answers when they face Illinois Wesleyan this week.

13 – Wash U. (Up 4)
I haven’t been that convinced about Wash U. this season, but they continue to win except for Illinois Wesleyan and Carthage. During the break they even beat Wheaton (Ill.) showing me they came back ready for the rest of the season. Of course, the UAA schedule lays ahead with a test against Chicago this week. Are the Bears for real? I don’t feel comfortable with the Bears this far up my poll, but this is also right in the area where I have teams far higher than I would like… because someone has to fill in these spots.

14 – Calvin (Down 5)
What is going on in Grand Rapids, Michigan? I know it has been brutally cold and very snowy, but to lose to Claremont-Mudd-Scripps and by 16 just doesn’t add. I am not saying CMS isn’t a good team and yes the Knights were on the road, but if you are a Top 10 team… or even a Top 25 team… that is a game you must win. It was even a tight game against Redlands two days beforehand. Let’s see how the team responds against Alma as they enter conference action.

15 – St. Norbert (Up 5)
Honestly, St. Norbert is too high in my poll right now… but again, someone has to fill this spot on the ballot. The team hasn’t really played and beaten anyone of note except they played Whitewater and lost. Their conference isn’t going to really challenge them (except a team I am not going to mention), so I am going to have to be careful not to move St. Norbert up the poll in the coming weeks just because they are winning.

16 – Wesley (Up 3)
I would have moved the Wolverines further up the poll if they had a) played and beaten Cabrini (game was postponed) and b) I felt comfortable doing so. Wesley is having a surprisingly good season after losing one of the best players in program history… but that may be the reason they are playing so well. However, with a couple of games postponed and entering a tough CAC schedule… I want to see more from Wesley before I even feel comfortable saying they are a Top 16 team.

17 – Christopher Newport (Up 7)
The Captains make a major move up the polls thanks in part to who else entered my poll and how Christopher Newport’s opponents have panned out. The Captains have one loss to Emory and while John Krikorian says they need to still work on a number of things, they have beaten Randolph-Macon and Virginia Wesleyan while playing very well in their first ever games in the CAC. They do have Wesley looming thisd week, but at least their first battle with the Wolvernies this season will be in Newport News.

18 – Oglethorpe (Unranked)
I can’t keep ignoring the Stormy Petrels. While they haven’t beaten any big names most of the season, a hard fought victory over an underrated Stevenson squad certainly eliminated any excuses I had to keep them out of my poll. Now they enter conference play with the travel and two-games-a-weekend schedule. What I can say with certainty is that Oglethorpe has changed the complexion of the SAA. Most eyes have been on last year’s champion Centre and a resurgent Birmingham-Southern. Should those two teams continue to play well along with Oglethorpe… the SAA could have three teams in the NCAA tournament since all will be picked as Pool B selections.

19 – Whitworth (Up 3)
Here is another team that lost, but moved up. Of course the loss for Whitworth came against the number one team in the country in a game that was nip and tuck for the first 34 minutes. If the Pirates had been better managing fouls and their key players understood the officiating better, Whitworth would have been the first to push Stevens Point the full 40 and not their NWC brethren Whitman. Whitworth does suffer from a short bench especially in the paint, but I like what Coach Logie has going there and their game against UW-Platteville was masterful. The NWC is going to change the complexion of the West Region this year and in years to come just as the women have already done.

20 – Mary Washington (Unranked)
Admittedly, I have been very leery of any good start from the Eagles this century. They just never live up to the hype, expectations and start. However, Mary Washington doesn’t look like they are going away. Certainly I would love to have held out another week to see how they do this week in the CAC (Salisbury and Wesley followed by Christopher Newport), but when you beat two teams ranked at the time in the Top 10 (overall poll) you can’t keep ignoring one of the best starts in program history. Again, the CAC has turned into a surprising battle this year thanks to the play of Mary Washington and others. I look forward to see how this all plays out in the coming weeks.

21 – Stevenson (Up 2)
Another team with a loss who moves up… but they lost to Oglethorpe who I know have ranked ahead of them. I quietly inserted the Mustangs into my poll after they beat Alvernia to start MAC Commonwealth play. I see a lot of the Mustangs and think they are far better than advertised. However, I am not the only one starting to notice their play. They did blow a 20-point lead to Widener the other night before eventually winning the game 105-100… but it was the fact they scored 100+ plus in two of the last three games that made me take note. If Stevenson can win away from their own gym, the MAC Commonwealth and Mid-Atlantic Region are in for a major change.

22 – Virginia Wesleyan (Down 4)
Yeah, I know I am being harsh with the Marlins by moving them down four spots with a 2-1 record during the break. I am also very aware I moved other teams like Stevenson up despite losses. In fact, I am so aware of these facts that I nearly wore through an entire eraser because I was constantly moving Virginia Wesleyan and others around. The short answer is this: the Marlins are victims of other teams entering the poll and other teams shifting. Mary Washington beat VWC and moved into my poll this week – I can’t keep VWC head of UMW. Christpher Newport beat VWC and moved up, but I couldn’t find a spot higher up for Mary Washington. The Marlins are a good team, maybe surprisingly good considering how much they lost from last year. Are they better than 22nd in the country? Maybe… I would be hard pressed to argue against that line of thinking. However, there are a lot of teams in this area of my poll that can move around and I would have different answers depending on what decisions I make. For now… the Marlins are down to 22nd.

23 – Messiah (Unranked)
I told a Messiah supporter the other day I probably wasn’t going to put the Falcons on my ballot until they got through at least part of the next five games… and then they beat Guilford by ten (it wasn’t that close) on the road in North Carolina. This is the best start in program history and they have won some good games so far. The real test and the reason I wanted to wait is because they play Lycoming (home), Alvernia (home), Stevenson (away) and Widener (away) in four of the next five games. That is going to be a tough stretch, so I would lying if I told you I am nervous to put Messiah in my poll this week – but they are undefeated with a team that a few years ago everyone knew was too young.

24 – Middlebury (Down 12)
Even as I write this I worry I have treated the Panthers too harshly. Like many teams they only lost one game during the break. However, they go a month between games in which they barely beat Skidmore and then lose by 7 to Salve Regina (not a bad team, mind you) and I stated last month I was already fearful Middlebury was a bit too much smoke and mirrors. The loss to Salve Regina gives me more pause that I have been overrating this team despite watching them in two games at the beginning of the season. I still think they battle for the NESCAC, but I don’t think they have the pieces to win the conference.

25 – Wheaton (Ill.) (Down 11)
Another team where the reaction is I treated them too harshly. But, let’s be real… Wheaton has lost four games this season and while they are almost all against Top 25 teams… they are starting to prove they can’t win the big games. Of their wins, none are to Top 25 teams and their losses, albeit close, indicate they can’t close games out. Sure, there is something to be said that they are playing tough opponents, but to be honest they are losing to their tough opponents and beating the easy ones. That alone doesn’t qualify as a Top 25 team in many books. For now, Wheaton stays in my Top 25… but there are a number of teams on my pad for consideration that I will drop Wheaton for in a second.

Dropped out:
Guilford (Ranked 16)
I know it is their first losses of the season, but you can’t lose three in a row and expect to stay ranked. Virginia Wesleyan went through nearly this exact same scenario last season at this time. Guilford may right the ship and head into ODAC play as one of the better teams in the conference, but when you lose at on a neutral court twice and at home… I just can’t keep the Quakers in my Top 25.

Eastern Connecticut State (Ranked 21)
The Warriors traveled to Orlando and lost to both CCIW teams they faced: North Central and Carthage. Certainly, those are tough opponents and Eastern Connecticut lost by a total of four points, but with so many teams deserving a place on my ballot I have to make decisions some place. There isn’t much room to fall when you started 21st on my ballot. I will keep my eye on the Warriors especially in conference play.

UW-Stout (Ranked 25)
Another team that makes the trip to Florida and comes away with two losses. However, this squad losses by 12 to a Milikin team and by 22 to Plattsburgh State! Despite responding with a win against UW-Eau Claire, those losses are not what a Top 25 caliber team should be doing.

Teams I am consider:
I can’t get every team I want into my Top 25 and I won’t tell you this list every week, but with a break for the holidays and starting into conference play, here are the teams I have my eye on and thought about adding to my ballot:

– Babson
– Birmingham-Southern
– Brockport State
– Dickinson
– Marietta
– MIT
– Ohio Wesleyan
– Richard Stockton
– Springfield
– St. Vincent
– SUNY Purchase
– William Paterson

Dave’s Top 25 ballot – Week 7

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Sam Longwell
Sam Longwell and his WPI teammates moved up on Dave McHugh’s ballot.
WPI athletics photo

After the week of carnage in the men’s Top 25, I decided to completely overhaul my ballot. Last week I went through a gut check; this week I started over. I looked at teams I already had on my ballot, teams I was considering, teams that was provided to voters, and teams that caught my attention as I went through each region. The result was initially about 50 programs on the table. Then after a quickly cutting based on a quick look at the teams on the table, I was left with 41 schools to consider for this week’s ballot.

From those 41 I started anew going through each team’s results up to this point and painstakingly looking at their wins, losses, travel, what other factors could have been at play and their overall statistics. As a result, you will see a lot of changes on my ballot compared to last week including, maybe, some surprising moves.

No.1 St. Thomas – Unchanged
The Tommies may have actually solidified their No.1 ranking in my ballot through the overhaul.

No.2 – Rochester – Unchanged
The Yellowjackets certainly proved they are a very good team this past weekend with not only the win over Chicago, but a very strong win over Wash U. They are shooting very well this season and winning by an average of 18.6 points a game.

No.3 – Whitworth – UP 2 spots
I am a little nervous about the Pirates this high after the week they just had. They barely survived against Whitman (who lost two games this week) and George Fox (who then beat Whitman). And some of their stats have me worried like only outrebounding their opponents by 2.4 a game. However, they have four players averaging double-figures this season and continue to win.

No.4 – WPI – UP 4 spots
The Engineers are still undefeated though they didn’t really get tested this past week. They do have the most wins in Division III including a victory over Rhode Island a month ago. However, I have the same concerns with WPI as I do with Whitworth.

No.5 – Middlebury – DOWN 2 spots
The Panthers are still undefeated, but they are barely getting it done. Yet another weekend in the NESCAC sees Middlebury barely beat an opponent this time at home. My confidence is shaky despite the fact they are beating opponents on average by more than 15 points and shooting 51.9% a game with four players in double-figures.

No.6 – UW-Stevens Point – UP 12 spots
The Points big move up my ballot is based on not only the fact they beat Stout and La Crosse this week by an average of 12 points, but also the fact I took a longer look at all teams. Stevens Point has five players averaging more than 10 points a game while they only turn the ball over about ten times a contest. I do have questions on whether the Pointers can get through the conference unscathed, but they have a two game lead in mid-January so they are pretty well positioned.

No.7 – North Central (Ill.) – DOWN 3 spots
The Cardinals were bound to trip up in the CCIW, but I didn’t see it happening to a struggling Carthage team. They did right the ship against Augustana, but I said last week I wasn’t confident with the Cardinals. Now North Central has some impressive wins and are not only beating their opponents by more than 13 points a game, but they are holding opponents to an average of 56 points a game. However, I doubt the Carthage game will be their only bump in the road the rest of the season.

No.8 – Williams – UP 12 spots
I have not been giving the Ephs enough credit. When I took a longer look at their season, their lone loss to Stevens became less of a concern for a team that is outscoring their opponents by 19.1 points a game and shooting a very impressive 52.2% from the floor. With four players in double-figures leading a team that has swept Wesleyan and beaten Springfield and looked better against common opponents than Middlebury, it was high time I bought into the Ephs.

No.9 – Catholic – DOWN 3 spots
I didn’t think the Cardinals could get through the Landmark unscathed (especially since they still have to play Scranton twice), but the loss to Juniata on the road gave me pause. Catholic teams of the past would have taken a loss like that and turned into a losing streak. Maybe the new Landmark schedule allowed CUA to stop the bleeding by Saturday or they are showing they can handle a few bumps and bounce back.

No.10 – Ramapo – DOWN 3 spots
The Roadrunners got tripped up by a single point by William Patterson this week which certainly had me shaking my head. However, Ramapo has five guys averaging between 11 and 16 points a game while outrebounding their opponents by nearly seven boards a game. Ramapo seems to be playing well despite concerns their top player Will Sanborn takes nights off.

No.11 – Christopher Newport – DOWN 1 spot
The loss in double-overtime to North Carolina Wesleyan was both expected and unexpected. Sure, NC Wesleyan would be gunning for Christopher Newport and the game was on the road. However, it showed the Captains may have to stay focused for every game in their conference this season. Now, they have three players averaging more than 15 points a game and their two losses have been by eight total points. So, I feel comfortable… for now.

No.12 – Hampden-Sydney – UP 2 spots
I was actually more impressed the more I looked at Hampden-Sydney this week. They are outscoring their opponents by nearly 23 points a game while shooting 51.1% from the floor and getting seven more boards a game. They are even dishing nearly 20 assists a game! The Tigers just have to stay focused in what will be a tough run of Randolph-Macon, Eastern Mennonite, Randolph, Guilford and Lynchburg in the next five games.

No.13 – Ohio Wesleyan – UP 2 spots
The Battling Bishops are playing very solid basketball right now. However, they have Wooster this coming Saturday at home. That will give all of us a chance to grade both teams and see who is in control of the NCAC.

No.14 – Stevens – Unranked
I said when I dropped Stevens out of my poll last week it was not because of Stevens, but when I took a closer look I couldn’t believe I had made the move to begin with. Stevens has beaten Williams and only lost to NYU (by 6). They have three players averaging more than 14 points a game and are outscoring their opponents by than 10 points a game.

No.15 – Amherst – UP 9 spots
I had been holding the Lord Jeffs kind of low this season, so it was a good thing I took a longer look this week. They have six players scoring 10 points or more while outscoring their opponents by 15.6 a game. Sure, the loss to Babson at home still raises concerns, but the Lord Jeffs appear to be better than I was giving them credit for.

No.16 – Guilford – UP 6 spots
The Quakers continue to roll right now having won eight straight games. They are playing pretty good basketball in all aspects and have some very good wins on their resume this season.

No.17 – St. Mary’s (Md.) – DOWN 8 spots
It is a big drop for the Seahawks who beat Franklin and Marshall, but they lost to Wesley this past week as well. I think Wesley is a good team, but now St. Mary’s has lost two games that weren’t even close (13 to Catholic and 14 to Wesley) and they all but blew a huge halftime lead on the Diplomats. They are also being outrebounded by 3.1 a game which could be a big problem the rest of the season. I need to take pause and see how St. Mary’s responds to Saturday’s loss before I consider moving them back into the top 15.

No.18 – Wooster – DOWN 2 spots
There isn’t anything the Scots did to slide this week, I just did some rearranging in the overhaul. They are dominating on the boards and are shooting well. However, they are turning the ball more than their opponents and they have a big test on Saturday against Ohio Wesleyan.

No.19 – Albertus Magnus – DOWN 2 spots
The Falcons are certainly having a very good season on paper, but they really haven’t played anyone while only outscoring their opponents (including Yale) by five points a game and also being outrebounded by more than five boards a game. Nothing else stands out to me as they work their way through a weak conference. I am leery this could be more smoke and mirrors than anything else.

No.20 – Washington (Mo.) – DOWN 8 spots
The Bears have me nervous. They have now lost three games this season all on the road. Granted, Rochester is proving to be a very good team, but Wash U. was barely able to get past Emory making me realize they seem to struggle away from their home court. They are dominating on the boards at an 13.6 average and they have six of the next eight at home, so I will be watching to see if the home court is truly their advantage.

No.21 – Calvin – Unranked
The Knights may not have an impressive schedule especially with a loss to Carthage and a very low scoring output against Wheaton, but they are outscoring opponents by more than 17 points a game, outrebounding by nearly 11, and shooting very well on average. I would think this week they should beat Hope who is struggling this season, but anything is possible in a rivalry game – so I will be watching.

No.22 – Illinois Wesleyan – Unranked
The Titans are getting the job done when they need to. Yes, the loss to Franklin is still quick to remind me they can overlook teams, but they are holding opponents to about 62 points a game while outrebounding them by over nine a game. The biggest concern is they are shooting just 65.3% from the free throw line though they have shot 81 more free shots than their opponents helping make up for the misses. A win over Augustana and dominating Carthage was good enough for me to move them back into my Top 25.

No.23 – Randolph – DOWN 3 spots
The loss to Virginia Wesleyan wasn’t unexpected. It was on the road and just a six point spread, so I am not going to knock the Wildcats too much for that. They are still outscoring opponents by nearly 15 points a game and have maybe one of the most underrated players in the country. If they can solve a weak rebounding game, they could be a team to watch out for in February or later.

No.24 – Rhode Island – Unranked
The Anchormen have given me fits this season. However, they seem to have left their two-game slide in the rear view mirror having won five straight. Not many challenges await them in the conference for a team that holding opponents to less than 60 points a game. They just need to remain focused on each game.

No.25 – Rose-Hulman – DOWN 4 spots
Their loss to Transylvania didn’t cost them that much since I think Transy is playing well (despite a loss to rival Hanover). It was only the Engineers second loss of the season, though it was at home. What impresses me the most is that they are holding opponents to 48.2 points per game and outscoring them by more than 15. That along with the fact that opponents are shooting just 26.6 from beyond the arc really makes me appreciate Rose-Hulman’s defense and defense is the key to winning as we all know.

Dropped out this week:
Franklin & Marshall – No.11 last week
I wasn’t really going to knock the Diplomats for the loss on the road at St. Mary’s, but when they couldn’t beat winless Washington College I knew I had to take a long look at F&M. To start the season, F&M played 5 of its first 7 and 8 of 12 at home. They now have three road losses including to a Shoremen team that they had beaten by 19 earlier in the season (granted, Chestertown tends to be a tough place for the road teams). Factor in the inconsistencies of Honorable Mention preseason All-American Hayk Gyokchyan and it has me thinking the Diplomats are overrated. And Centennial conference isn’t through with them yet. The Diplomats are in the middle of six of seven games on the road and opponents may not be that awestruck by F&M.

New York Univ. – No.13 last week
I realize that the Violets didn’t do anything for me to drop them out of my Top 25. They won three games last week including two conference games at home. I also realize that since I was their only voter last week that was the only points in the poll they were getting. Now, that being said… it gave me great pause to realize I was the only one voting for them and it wasn’t like I had them in the 20’s. Sure, they only have two losses on the season, but they got beat up by Brandeis over a week ago and didn’t exactly play the best game of the season against Carnegie Mellon. And their only significant win was to SUNY-Old Westbury in early December. I will keep my eyes on the Violets, but taking the time to reexamine my Top 25 cost them a spot.

UW-Whitewater – No.23 last week
I indicated last week that a loss this week would cost the Warhawks a spot in my poll and they ended up losing to 7-9 UW-Superior who had just gotten throttled by UW-Platteville earlier in the week. When looking at their stats, the Warhawks also didn’t impress me. They are playing a lot of close games and are not outrebounding their opponents. They are allowing teams to shoot nearly 40% from beyond the arc and are losing at the free throw line. Yes, the Warhawks are the defending champions, but they are showing just how much they lost from that team.

Wheaton – No.25 last week
I know they beat North Park and Millikin by an average of 22 points this week, but when I took a deeper look at things I just couldn’t hold them in my 25th spot. Sure, they have four guys averaging between 10 and 20 points a game and they are outscoring their opponents by 14 a game. But, they are tied for fourth in the CCIW with Augustana (whom they play this week) and if I can’t put Augustana in my poll, I am not sure I can justify Wheaton. I do like the Thunder as a team and if they can go on a run, they could be back in my poll soon.