Pausing before the stretch run

Buffalo State struggled with Justin Mitchell out. He’s not missing any longer.
Buffalo State athletics photo

Teams have started to clinch regular season titles and the first regional rankings will be published this week. So we must officially be in the stretch run. Here’s a few points of view on the men’s and women’s basketball season so far — who has surprised, who has disappointed and who is the player of the year…so far.

    MEN

Who is the biggest surprise?
Gordon Mann: The Hope Flying Dutchmen didn’t make the preseason Top 25. In fact, they wouldn’t have made the Top 30 since they were seven slots out of the preseason poll. Now Hope is the only team left that is unbeaten against Division III opponents.
Pat Coleman: Whitworth. Losing the consensus Player of the Year from a team with an already-tight rotation, then losing the head coach, seemed like a recipe for mortality. But the Pirates have done pretty well for themselves, at 18-3 with one of the losses to a scholarship school, one to UW-Whitewater and another to rival Whitman. The addition of another transfer, Idris Lasisi, has been huge for Whitworth. (Understandable about Hope — however, since they wouldn’t provide our voters with a preseason breakdown of who was returning, we didn’t speculate.)
Dave McHugh: New York University. The Violets always seem to start their season strong, but once they enter UAA play they have struggled in recent years. After losing to Brandeis, it appeared to be deja vu, but NYU has since then only lost one more game against Carnegie Mellon at home (figure that one out!). They have beaten Chicago and Wash U. on the road and still have those teams to play in New York City. However, the big test will be the three games on the road against Emory, Rochester, and Brandeis.

Who is the biggest disappointment?
Gordon Mann: Rochester isn’t the only preseason Top 10 team to fall off the national radar. Marietta is in the same predicament. But unlike Marietta, Rochester doesn’t have a chance to save its season by winning its postseason conference tournament. The UAA awards its automatic bid to the regular season title winner and the Yellowjackets are three games out of first place with four to play.
Pat Coleman: Williams. The Ephs have struggled in the second semester. Heck, even in the first semester, a home loss to Salem State is not an indication of a stellar season. Whether it’s the back injury or the absence of Troy Whittington, James Wang is simply not the player we’ve seen on the national scene.
Dave McHugh: Marietta. The Pioneers looked poised to dominate the OAC, but instead have struggled with two loses to Ohio Northern and one against Baldwin Wallace (both behind Marietta in the standings). They have also lost to the two teams ahead of them, Capital and John Carroll, and still have to face both teams in the last two games of the season. Those five in-conference loses with potentially more could put the Pioneers in a very difficult role of a road team who needs to win the conference title to get an NCAA AQ.

What team are you buying stock in?
Gordon Mann: Wittenberg seems like a good buy on the virtual Division III basketball stock market. The Tigers sit atop a quality conference and have just three regional losses. So they are in decent position to host an NCAA tournament pod … if they can win their last four games … and the NCAC tournament. Well, stock picking is speculative, isn’t it?
Pat Coleman: Buffalo State. The Bengals dropped off the radar with back-to-back losses, one of them by 24, when Justin Mitchell (12.8 points per game) was out. They’ve bounced back to win six in a row, averaging 95.5 points per game in the process. They lost to Oswego State in December and must travel to Oswego on Feb. 17.
Dave McHugh: Transylvania. There is something about how the Pioneers are playing basketball that impresses me. They have two loses on the season to Gustavus Adolphus, who was a giant killer in Las Vegas, and Defiance, which is a head scratcher. Coach Brian Lane nearly broke his dad’s record for start to a season at 10-0 with a team that is unselfish (check out their assist numbers) and several players like Ethan Spurlin, Brandon Rash, Barrett Meyer and Tate Cox who contributing on all levels. And if they don’t get very far in the NCAA Tournament this season, get ready because pretty nearly the entire team returns next season.

Which ranked team are you not sold on?
Gordon Mann: MIT. Dominating the NEWMAC is not a precursor to national success. The NEWMAC teams have received 17 bids to the NCAA tournament since 2002 (sixth most among all conferences) and won 16 games. MIT’s own NCAA tournament record is 2-3 in the last four years with loses to DeSales, Rochester and Farmingdale State.
Pat Coleman: Hope. Clearly they’ve beaten everyone we would expect them to, though, with the only loss to D-I Western Michigan. I just am not sure who they have beaten, because they play so many non-Division III teams. It’s hard to tell what a win against Cornerstone or Mount Vernon Nazarene means. The best win on a D-III level is a one-point win against Wheaton (Ill.) on a neutral floor. That at least puts Hope on par with the best teams in the CCIW, so considering them for No. 1 is not at all a stretch. But just not sold.
Dave McHugh: Franklin and Marshall. The Diplomats have two loses in a sub-par Centennial Conference: on the road against Muhlenberg and at home against Washington College. Outside of the conference, F&M has played mostly lowly teams with just ONE game outside of the Mayser Gymnasium (Lancaster Bible) and two games against Oneonta State (2-19), though just one of those games counts in the eyes of the NCAA. In all, they are 19-2 against an opponent record of 150-164 (.478) (counting Oneonta State twice, it would be 152-183). They are having trouble playing an inside-outside game, which has made them tough in the past. It appears teams are choosing to stop either Hayk Gyokchyan or Georgio Milligan, the teams only major threats, and that seems to be working to keep games tight.

Who is your player of the year so far?
Gordon Mann: Ryan Sharry of Middlebury leads his team in scoring (20.6 per game), rebounding (10.1 per game) and blocks (32). He scores efficiently – 66.3 percent shooting from the field and 42.4 percent from behind the arc. And he has helped establish the Panthers as legit national title contenders.
Pat Coleman: Matt Johnson of Chicago. The guy’s streak of late is obviously impressive, and he has been carrying a Maroons team that would otherwise really be struggling. He’s upped his average above 20 points per game, shoots 38 percent from three-point range (with a lot of attempts) and is 88 percent from the line. But another game like Sunday’s at Rochester and I’ll be looking for someone else.
Dave McHugh: Matt Addison of Hardin-Simmons. The nation’s second leading scorer (28.0 ppg) has also made his Hardin-Simmons team much better – e.g. he missed the Cowboys’ home game against Mary Hardin-Baylor which the Cowboys’ lost in overtime. Addison is tough to stop because he can slice to the rim, stop and hit from 12 feet, and is 33rd in the nation in three-point shooting at .417. And don’t put him on the line, because he is shooting .883 which is 15th best in Division III. And we aren’t done… he has 2.6 steals/game (20th in the NCAA) and handing out 4.9 assists/game (33rd in the NCAA). He is also a difficult defender, usually taking on the opponent’s biggest threat on the outside. Oh, and he is a father of two and a Ministry major.

What is the best conference race?
Gordon Mann: MAC Freedom, though the MAC Commonwealth race is also very good. In both cases, only the top four teams make the conference playoffs and at least six are alive. On the Freedom side, it’s unlikely any team will get an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament, so the urgency adds to the entertainment value. Defending champion Delaware Valley won’t make the playoffs, but the Aggies can still play spoiler. Their two conference wins come against co-first place holders Wilkes and Eastern.
Pat Coleman: The NJAC North, where two strong teams will get left out of the conference playoffs, while either Kean (5-18, 4-7) or TCNJ (8-15, 2-9) will get in because of being in the NJAC South. In the NJAC North, New Jersey City (16-5, 6-4), Rutgers-Newark(13-9, 6-4), Montclair State (16-7, 6-5) and Ramapo (15-7, 6-5) are battling for two playoff spots.
Dave McHugh: I could have gone with the NCAC, UAA, or NESCAC, but the Landmark Conference has surprised me. While Scranton is up two games with three to play on Juniata and Moravian (tied for second) and three games on Catholic and Susquehanna (tied for fourth), these teams have been beating on each other all season. And then there is Merchant Marine. The Mariners have rebounded with three straight wins including games against Juniata and Catholic to put them 5-6 and one game back of a playoff spot. Who makes the four-team tournament and in what positions won’t be decided until the final game of the season. And then anything is possible for the tournament crown since anyone can beat anyone, anywhere.

    WOMEN

Who is the biggest surprise?
Gordon Mann: UW-Eau Claire and Mary Washington both qualify as pleasant surprises, but the team that made the biggest jump from preseason to now is Franklin. The Grizzlies had no votes in the preseason Top 25 and then vaulted into the first regular season poll, buoyed by a 52-47 win over preseason No. 10 DePauw.
Pat Coleman: St. Thomas. The Tommies having a team in the top 15 in our poll is not surprising, but it being the women, that’s a different story. Now, it could be said that the Tommies have lost to the best team (or only regionally prominent team) they’ve played, and that was the opener, 70-53 at UW-Stevens Point on Nov. 16.
Dave McHugh: Mary Washington. I know Deena Applebury can not only do a terrific job of coaching, but she is also a solid recruiter, but I didn’t see a 21-0 record at this point in the season. York (Pa.) is one game behind them, but already lost to the Eagles 59-42 in Fredricksburg, Vir. The Eagles have also dominated many of their other opponents while getting solid victories over teams like Christopher Newport, Ferrum, and Keene State. The Eagles are also outscoring their opponents by nearly 23 ppg with seniors Katie Wimmer and Jenna McRae leading the way, but not the team’s only threats.

Who is the biggest disappointment?
Gordon Mann: Denison. DePauw moved into the NCAC this season and instantly became the favorite over the Big Red, who were last year’s conference champions. But Denison still had high expectations coming off a 28-1 year and was ranked No. 12 in the preseason. Now, a year removed from going undefeated in the NCAC, Denison is 7-5 in conference.
Pat Coleman: Muhlenberg. Rallying from 17 down at Rochester last season put the Mules in the Sweet 16. The Mules’ standout player, Alexandra Chili, returned this year. But this year, when the Mules rallied from 17 down, it was to beat Washington College (12-9). Without that rally, Muhlenberg would have lost six of its past eight games. Five of eight isn’t much better.
Dave McHugh: I have to agree with Pat and say Muhlenberg. The Mules looked to be in control of the Centennial Conference after winning their first 12 games of the season and 7 in the conference climbing to as high as #9 in the country. But, they have stumbled badly since then. They still have time to turn it around with five games left in the season, but they have put themselves in a win-or-go-home scenario in the conference tournament.

What team are you buying stock in?
Gordon Mann: Illinois Wesleyan, and I’ve pretty much cornered this market. The Titans had 38 points in the Week 9 Top 25 poll and I account for almost a third of them because Illinois Wesleyan is No. 14 on my ballot. From what I’ve seen, they have a great scorer in Olivia Lett and good depth. They are physical enough to beat big teams and quick enough to beat small teams. On paper, only two of their losses are “bad” and even those aren’t terrible. UW-Whitewater is a quality program from an elite conference and Wheaton (Ill.) beat the Titans in double overtime.
Pat Coleman: Mount Union. Although they’re getting about as high as I feel comfortable. I’ll feel more comfortable in a couple of weeks, if they win at Ohio Northern (18-3, 12-2 OAC) and Baldwin-Wallace (14-7, 9-5).
Dave McHugh: If this was last week, I would have said Millsaps, but after losing two games this past weekend, my focus has switched to Centre. The Colonels have one blemish on their resume which was a heart-breaking OT loss to Thomas More when a jumper wouldn’t fall at the buzzer. They have beaten Millsaps and Rhodes to site 2.5 games up on their side of the SCAC while outscoring their opponents by 15. And Maggie Prewitt is leading the way with 16.6 ppg, 6.2 rpg, and 7.3 apg while shooting .460 from the floor, .385 from beyond the arc, and .890 from the charity strip… impressive.

Which ranked team are you not sold on?
Gordon Mann: Lewis and Clark has been high on my ballot all season. But after watching the Pioneers struggle late against George Fox again on Tuesday, I’m not sure what to make of them (more on the Bruins below). The Pioneers’ win over Kean is nice, but that was months ago and the Cougars were missing second leading scorer Brittany Powell. If Lewis and Clark is as good this year as they were last year, that’s still pretty good. But last year’s version of the Pioneers split its regular season series with George Fox and still ended the year without a single vote in the Final Top 25 poll. Maybe the Pios’ Top 10 ranking is too high.
Pat Coleman: Franklin. It’s hard to argue with the only team that beat DePauw. Digging into the box score reminds me that Ali Ross fouled out for DePauw at Franklin with just five points, and it’s the only time a DePauw player has fouled out all season. The Tigers shot only 33 percent from the floor and made two three-pointers. Scoring only 36 in the home loss to Manchester is a head-scratcher. The HCAC isn’t traditionally a strong Division III women’s basketball conference, and while Franklin played three MIAA teams, they were Kalamazoo, Trine and Alma, a combined 10-27 in the MIAA.
Dave McHugh: Juniata. I realize the Eagles only have one loss and they have a two-game lead on Catholic in the Landmark Conference. They also have swept Scranton, but the Lady Royals are no longer the dominating team of yester-year. However, I have seen the Eagles in action not only in person, but via video, and I have not been impressed. They can’t seem to put together a 40 minute game and even in games they seem to dominate, they tend to allow opponents to hang around just a bit too much

Who is your player of the year so far?
Gordon Mann: Hannah Munger of George Fox. Among the players I’ve seen live or on video, Calvin’s Carissa Verkaik has the most unique skill set and Amherst’s Caroline Stedman is the one I’d want most in the clutch. But Munger is the most irreplaceable to her team. Her height in the middle takes away the opponents’ inside game and her athleticism makes her tough to stop on offense. The Bruins would still be good without Munger. They are championship contenders with her.
Pat Coleman: Well, I like those players too. UW-Eau Claire center Ellen Plendl belongs in that conversation as well. Even though she only averages 12.2 points per game, the 6-5 senior also averages 10.7 rebounds and 3.9 blocked shots.
Dave McHugh: I know, this IS a strange pick, but Megan Robertson has been a major factor in Amherst’s success this season (along with Caroline Stedman). In fact, Coach G.P. Gromacki will tell you she is their biggest surprise. Robertson is a freshman who is third on the team in scoring at 10.7 ppg, first on the team in rebounding (7.4) while shooting .531 and blocking 22 shots. And while she may play a lot of time inside, she can easily switch to point guard which gives Amherst all kinds of match-up advantages.

What is the best conference race?
Gordon Mann: The WIAC has three ranked teams (Stevens Point, Eau Claire and River Falls) and two others who’ve proved they are contenders (Whitewater and La Crosse). Stevens Point leads the pack, and it split the regular season series with fifth place La Crosse. If the teams don’t beat each other up too much, this conference could put four teams in the NCAA tournament.
Pat Coleman: The Iowa Conference. Four teams are within a half-game of the lead, with Simpson and Wartburg at 9-3, Coe and Loras at 9-4. Loras has yet to travel to Wartburg and Simpson, so they have the toughest road to the top seed of the bunch. Coe also travels to Wartburg, so while Wartburg has two games against first-place contenders remaining, at least they are both at home.
Dave McHugh: While I like the WIAC and IIAC races, the USAC is intriguing. There is a three-way tie at the top between Greensboro, Christopher Newport, and Ferrum. Greensboro has beaten Christopher Newport once with one to play. Ferrum has split against Christopher Newport including a dominating 82-58 victory on Sunday and will take on Greensboro, who they already beat earlier this season, on Wednesday. The Pride are beatable, proven by the fact they lost to Ferrum and Christopher Newport in back-to-back games earlier this season, but have won 9 straight since. Who wins the regular and tournament titles is too hard to call.

This is the end

During the Division III basketball season, I’ve been reading John Feinstein’s The Last Amateurs in which he chronicles a season in Division I’s Patriot League. There are lots of parallels to Division III, especially since many of the Assistant Coaches in the Patriot League are now Division III coaches. The list includes Carl Danzig at Scranton, Jimmy Allen at Averett and Nathan Davis at Randolph-Macon.

Much of the book is about players fighting to prolong their basketball careers. Like nearly all Division III athletes, they are “going pro in something other than sports.” When the final Patriot League team, LaFayette, has its season ended by Temple in the NCAA Tournament, senior Mike Homer says, “I’ll always love this time in my life. I’ll love having been a basketball player. But I’ll be ready to move on. Endings are always sad. But they lead to beginnings.”

For me the enduring images of the 2009-2010 season were those in which players and coaches reached the end of their college career.

Clark senior forward Mark Alexander never missed a game in his college career due to injury. Not over 100 plus games. He was a big reason for the Cougars’ opening round upset of Albright and undoubtedly a major part of their strategy to beat Randolph-Macon. But he hurt his knee badly enough in the opening minute against the Yellow Jackets that he never returned. He spent the game on the bench, icing his knee or leaning on crutches. The Cougars scrapped but came up short against Randolph-Macon, ending their season and Alexander’s career. He put a towel over his head and cried when the final buzzer sounded. I’m not sure if he could’ve played in the next round of the tournament, even if the Cougars advanced. Maybe he spent the whole 39 minutes of action thinking about the end of his career. It still wasn’t enough to staunch the emotion.

Coaches don’t normally have to wrestle with those emotions quite as much. There’s usually next season to think about. But during Marymount’s season, women’s coach Bill Finney announced that he would retire after it was complete. His last game was a close one against Hope in the sectional semifinals. Unlike Alexander, he didn’t have time to think about this being his last game even while it being played.

Finney had a tremendous coaching career, winning over 500 games and impacting countless lives. He has also been a great supporter of this site. I’ve benefited from the insight he’s shared with me directly or through other staff. I wanted to get his insight on what he was thinking, what he was feeling that night. Because Marymount’s semifinal was the first game in a double header, I didn’t get the chance to ask him. Maybe no media did since Marymount didn’t appear to have a writer or radio station at the game. I’m not sure I would’ve had the gumption to ask anyway and intrude on that personal moment.

I did get the chance to talk to D3hoops All American Christina Solari about that moment a couple hours later. Her Illinois Wesleyan Titans played a tremendous game against UW-Stevens Point. The Titans went from nearly surviving and playing Hope in the Elite 8 to being beaten on a shot with 2.2 seconds left. Throw in the timeout the Titans called to set up a final play and that’s not a lot of time to think about your last game. I have no idea what Solari was feeling on the inside when I talked to her afterwards. But I was struck by how at peace she seemed to be when I asked her about this being her last game.

Solari has a medical redshirt that would enable her to play another year. But she didn’t seem inclined to use it. At least not right now. Maybe she’ll decide to come back, like Kean’s Melissa Beyruti did. Kean obliterated most of their opponents this season, seemingly on track for the Final Four. Then Beyruti got hurt in the NJAC tournament championship against William Paterson. Two Saturdays later, Rochester ended Kean’s season with Beyruti playing limited minutes. She finished her career tied for the most games played in women’s Division III basketball history.

This weekend the seniors at Rochester, Hope and Washington U. saw their college basketball careers end at the women’s final four. For Hope who lost in the championship game, the ending was emotional for seniors Jenny Cowen and Philana Greene. Cowen admirably wrestled her emotions to the ground during the post game conference. Without knowing what Greene was really feeling, she seemed at peace with the end of her college basketball career.

Amherst didn’t have any seniors on its roster. After its heartbreaking loss to Washington U in the national semifinals, there was a sense of unfinished business. Coach G.P. Gromacki implied as much by calling the team a “work in progress.” He and his players have done an incredible job already, building that program into a national title contender. There’s only one more step they can take, and that’s winning the national championship. Maybe they’ll get there. They will almost certainly be very good again next year. However next season ends, I hope they can enjoy the journey and don’t feel so much pressure trying to win a national championship that the rest of the season feels like the prelude to two games in March.

Of course, not all endings are sad. Two groups of seniors – one men, one women – get to have a happy endings to their careers. Washington U. graduate student Jaimie McFarlin had a rare opportunity to rewrite the end of her college career. Afterwards she told me that her basketball career still may not be finished. She hopes to play in Europe next year. UW-Stevens Point senior Matt Moses also had a happy ending, one that was a long time in the making.

For lots of players, they’ve reached the end, whether it’s happy, sad or somewhere in between. Wherever life takes those players next, we wish them the best. Thanks for giving us a small window into this part of your lives.

Insider: March at last

Holly Harvey, a junior guard for Illinois Wesleyan, checks in as her Titans get set to host Franklin in the first round of the NCAA tournament. She has lots of reasons to enjoy March and is hoping to add another big one on March 20.

I have always looked forward to the month of March. My birthday is on the 10th and what kid wouldn’t anticipate the one day a year when it’s all about them and they get showered with gifts? Now that I am older and a little more mature March holds my anticipation for a number of other reasons. Our spring break always falls the week of St. Patrick’s Day (another reason to be a fan of March) and I find myself counting down the days to it after the final week of February was filled with tests and papers. These days I also owe my love for this month to college basketball.

I log some of my longest hours of watching TV in March because I try and catch as much of the Division I NCAA tournaments as possible. It’s convenient that the opening days of the tournaments fall during spring break so I do not have to worry about whether or not I’d be able to drag myself away from the TV to go to class. Since I have been at Illinois Wesleyan the highlight of my March has been the Division III NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament.

All three of my years we have gotten the automatic bid from the CCIW. We are excited to begin our journey in the NCAA Tournament at our Shirk Center as we are a host for the first two rounds. We have Franklin College in our first game and if we are successful we will face either Simpson College or the University of Chicago. We are familiar with Chicago as we faced them at their place in December and won by 7. Just as we are starting our NCAA journey at Shirk we are hoping to end it there.

We have known for a while now that we are hosting the Final Four. It has been pretty hard to not look forward to those games and see ourselves playing for a national championship on our home court. When we find ourselves daydreaming about being in the Final Four we snap out of it and realize the games leading up to it will not just be handed to us because we are hosting. Every team we might face made the tournament for a reason and will challenge us to perform at our best.

We’ve been working hard all season for these important challenges that are about to come our way. I am confident that we are ready and have the potential to do some amazing things in the tournament. We are just going to take it one game at a time and not look past any of our opponents. Hopefully everything works out for us and March 2010 will be one of the most memorable months of my life.

Healthy Superstitions

Holly Harvey, a guard for the No. 1 Illinois Wesleyan Titans, has been blogging for D3hoops throughout the season. Here is her latest entry.

At a typical pre-game practice you can find our head coach, Mia Smith, wearing our next opponent’s school colors. At every game you can find our assistant coach / former player Tasha Gaston-Bell also wearing the opponent’s school colors. Some who notice may call this weird but we just call it a little bit of healthy superstition. The IWU Women’s Basketball Team is one of the most superstitious teams I have been a part of, but it is very fitting because I am probably the top contender for most superstitious player on the team. As I mentioned earlier, our superstitious ways begin at pre-game practices. Prior to practice we watch film and everyone sits in the same seat each time. Every pre-game practice I have to wear a green Nike headband the says “unstoppable”, I’ve heard a number of jokes about it but deep down I think everyone has grown quite fond of unstoppable as it’s called. We start practice with the same focus lay-up and shooting drill and end it with a walk through prep of the next opponent and team free throws. Our huddle before we leave always ends with the same cheer.

Game days produce a whole other set of superstitions. Although I own a number of IWU Women’s Basketball hoodies, I wear the same gray one every game day along with my travel green suit, the same pair of sneakers ,and of course unstoppable. I own even more Wesleyan t-shirts however there are only a select few that make the game day rotation. I also have a green and white scarf that teammate Nikki Preston’s mom made that I wear to every game. I love Orange G2 Gatorade and have to drink one before every game. When it is time for our pre-game prayer, some people will jump across the locker room to get to the person they always hold hands with. After prayer we can’t leave the locker room until we hear Coach Smith’s famous, enthusiastic “Game On, Here we go girlies, Have a day” cheer. For warm-ups we line up in the same order every game. One of our freshmen firmly believes that we play better when she misses her first left hand lay-up in warm-ups, so she has begun to intentionally miss every game. Towards the end of warm-ups our 2 seniors make a prediction about something crazy that could happen in the game, they both shoot a 3 pointer on it and if both make it they believe the prediction will come true. We stand in the same ordered line for the Star Spangled Banner (the claws really come out if someone tries to mess up that order, we take that one seriously).

What if our coaches were to forget to wear the other teams’ colors or if unstoppable were to go missing for a day? Do we think we are destined to perform poorly? The answer is no. Although we don’t stray from our superstitions we know they are nothing but routines. They put us in our comfort zone and get us game ready. They help us associate with the focus and intensity that we have brought to every game before.

It seems that our little routines have served us well this year. We are almost half way through our conference season and stand at 17-0 and hold the #1 ranking. As Coach Smith would say “It’s too late to lose now”. We had an exciting game at Elmhurst College last week. We did not shoot the 3 like we usually do and weren’t making the smartest decisions. We found ourselves down by 1 with about 8 minutes left in the second half, but we persevered and outscored them 20-9 to close the game and win by 10. I think our conference success can be attributed to our deep bench. We continually bring in fresh legs and I have noticed that we really wear our opponents down. We are committed to using our depth the rest of the way and not letting up, which I hope will make us unstoppable.

Part II: 10 questions for 2010

It’s a midseason review. It’s a rest-of-season preview. Stop – you’re both right! Actually, it’s the second part of our 10 burning questions for 2010. Here is Part I.

South: Whom would you take to win the ODAC – No. 4 Randolph-Macon, No. 6 Guilford, or the field?

Whom you take might depend on what we mean by “win the ODAC” since the Conference tournament has been unkind to favorites recently. Last year the top three seeds lost in their first tournament game and Randolph-Macon in particular has struggled, losing its tournament opener each year since 2006. This year’s Yellow Jacket squad is on a small list of undefeated teams with wins over DeSales, Wooster and Williams when each of them was ranked. They have five players scoring double-digits and leader Danny Jones is playing just 18.0 minutes per game. Guilford has the pedigree of last year’s run to the final four and Preseason All Americans Tyler Sanborn and Clay Henson who have combined for 36.7 points and 15.9 rebounds per game through Sunday. This is more than a two horse race, though. Eastern Mennonite is undefeated against Division III teams after rolling past Hampden-Sydney on Saturday. Virginia Wesleyan won the ODAC tournament last year and already beat Guilford 71-68 at home. And if you’re looking for a reason to take the field, the Marlins’ Stephen Fields gives you a great reason to do so. He leads the ODAC in scoring with 20.5 points per game.

My two cents: Guilford in the regular season and “the field” in the tournament.

Great Lakes: Who should be more worried about its slow start – John Carroll, Wooster or Hope?

Making this list is a blessing and a curse. It’s an acknowledgment of high expectations, either because of last year’s success (JCU), a talented young roster (Wooster) or a great tradition (Hope). But all three have to improve to meet those expectations. No. 7 John Carroll started 6-0 before losing four of five, including a surprising loss at home to Medaille (whom the Blue Streaks beat by 11 in last year’s NCAA tournament) and a 22-point thumping at the hooves of the Bethany Bison. Worse yet, all four loses are regional and two of them in conference. Wooster also has four loses (including one to John Carroll) but three came to Top 25 teams (add St. Thomas and Randolph-Macon). Winning one of those would’ve been nice for confidence but the Scots are doing fine in conference play at 3-0. Hope is an enigma (sound pretty philosophical, doesn’t it?) unless you have a good handle on the local NAIA teams on the schedule. If Olivet (5-6) could beat NAIA Spring Arbor at home, why didn’t Hope? The Flying Dutch are 7-4 over all with an impressive 22-point win over Wheaton (Ill.) and an early non-conference victory over archrival Calvin. Speaking of which, the Knights and Flying Dutch will meet again to start MIAA play this Wednesday, January 6.

My two cents: John Carroll since the OAC is a tougher road to hoe than the NCAC or the MIAA.

Midwest: Can the Illinois Wesleyan women run the table to the final four?

For the third straight year, the school hosting the women’s final four is also a strong contender to play for a national championship on its own floor. Hope had two cracks and fell one game short at Howard Payne in 2008 and against George Fox at Thomas More in 2009. The Titans had disappointment of their own in the 2009 tournament, seeing their season – undefeated and otherwise – end against Washington U last March. IWU exercised those ghosts in November but, given the importance of geographic proximity in the national tournament and the possibility for the Bears to pick up some loses in UAA play, Wash U. and IWU could meet again this year. IWU has the two main ingredients of recent national champions – a star player who can carry the team (Christina Solari) and a deep roster so she won’t have to do that very often. The biggest obstacle to another perfect regular season is Carthage, which is also undefeated against Division III. Circle the matchups between the Titans and Lady Reds (in Bloomington this Saturday and in Kenosha on January 30th) as the two biggest tests.

My two cents: The Titans can and they will.

West: What are George Fox’s chances to repeat?

George Fox has a strikingly similar poll position this season as it did last season. In January 2009 the Bruins were undefeated but slotted at No. 14. This year they are No. 16 with an 8-2 record and losses to Cal Lutheran (7-2) and NAIA Lewis-Clark State, which is 5-0 against NWC teams. If nothing else, this shows the respect that the pollsters have for the Bruins – 8-2 would have probably left them unranked a season ago. George Fox got off to a great start, defeating Puget Sound 65-62 in overtime on Saturday. The Loggers were picked second in the NWC preseason coaches poll. Two key pieces of last year’s championship, center and defensive anchor Kristen Shielee and national freshman of the year Sage Indendi, are gone. Six-foot-five freshman Hannah Munger is now the Bruins center, replacing Breezy Rinehart-Young in the starting lineup. Munger has 28 blocks in the last six games, which is a good sign. Indendi’s departure puts more pressure on fellow former fab frosh Keisha Gordon who has boosted her scoring output from 12.4 to 15.8 points per game so far. The Bruins aren’t the obvious pick to win the national championship, but they weren’t last year either.

My two cents: The Bruins will miss Shielee’s calming presence but don’t count them out.

Multi: Can a team from a “non-power conference” make a run to the Final Four?

Defining the power conferences in Division III is tough, so let’s use the following very rough rule of thumb – any conference that doesn’t have at least four tournament wins combined in the last three years is a non-power conference. On the women’s side, that kind of run is unlikely. The gap between the top teams in the tournament and the rest often translates into double-digit margins of victory for the former group. And the distribution of the really good teams is pretty even. As for the men, this question presumes the regional approach to bracketing continues. There have been some very surprising results in the middle of the country (Medaille over JCU; Northwestern (Minn.) over St. Norbert). But it’s tough to envision a team from the AMCC, UMAC or NathCON stringing together four consecutive big upsets. But in the East, Atlantic or Mid-Atlantic, it’s another story. Maybe the CSAC, Empire 8, Liberty League or Landmark champion gets hot at the right time and rides that all the way to Salem.

My two cents: Depends on what kind of bracket we get on the men’s side.