Triple Take: Yet to see the field

Defense
Mary Hardin-Baylor gets started this week.

Many got to take a deep breath after Week 1, knowing the opening day jitters for their teams are past.

Yet many people don’t have that luxury. Lots of teams across the country have yet to take a regular-season snap. It could be even more worrisome if one’s opponent already has a game under its belt. How much does one team improve between games one and two? We’re sure to find out on Saturday.

Pat Coleman, Keith McMillan and Ryan Tipps bring you a breakdown of many of the matchups set to take place.

Game of the Week.
Ryan’s take: UW-La Crosse at No. 5 Mary Hardin-Baylor.
It’s a good sign for UW-L that in its opener against Whitewater, it held the defending national champs to just a field goal on four drives. (It could have been worse.) But on the other side of the ball the Eagles failed to rev up their own offense. That pattern won’t fly against UMHB. The Crusaders are making their season debut, but, especially playing at home, it would be silly to suggest anything short of the team being fully prepared to win.
Keith’s take: No. 16 Cal Lutheran at No. 7 Linfield. The West Coast powers clash for the third time in 12 games, after the Kingsmen opened last season in California with a 47-42 upset and the Wildcats returned the favor in Oregon, 42-26, in the first round of the playoffs. CLU rushed for 252 yards in its win and Linfield 197, so I’d point at supplementing the passing game by establishing the run again as a factor. Then again, offense wasn’t the problem in either game, and though there are 19 and 16 starters back, it’s a new season. I wonder if the Wildcats can generate a pass rush with Eric Hedin graduated, and if they can cover WR Eric Rogers.
Pat’s take: No. 1 UW-Whitewater at No. 21 Franklin. Despite protestations to the contrary in Kickoff about how difficult it is to swap in a new quarterback to replace the franchise name, Franklin did start strong last week. What a game with Valparaiso, which is D-I in name only, means, not sure. Jonny West did go 32-for-51 passing and threw for five TDs and Ethan Cook had a good day running the ball in a 49-35 win, but UW-Whitewater, not-yet-jelled offensive line and all, will be a much stiffer test.

Surprisingly close game.
Ryan’s take: Hanover at No. 10 Thomas More.
Last year, this was a 56-12 shellacking during which everything went right for the Saints. So my baseline is that anything under a 44-point margin is surprisingly close, right? This year’s final will be well below that. Hanover’s defensive core is at the line of scrimmage, and the Panthers will make sure to disrupt some of Thomas More’s fluid run game.
Keith’s take: Delaware Valley at Washington & Jefferson. The Aggies won, 27-0, in the marquee game of the MAC-PAC challenge last season, but needed late heroics to beat Muhlenberg, 10-9, in Week 1. Meanwhile, W&J smashed Juniata, 40-0. The Aggies’ win over the Presidents last year wasn’t even as close as it looked, as W&J couldn’t muster a first down for three quarters. While most of the Aggies’ defense is back, and looked in form last week, they have almost an entirely new offense. Plus, thunderstorms are in the Pittsburgh-area forecast for Saturday, which means this one could be an ugly, points-are-hard-to-come-by affair.
Pat’s take: No. 4 St. Thomas at UW-River Falls. Expect Matt Walker’s Falcons to be more prepared than you might expect for a team playing its first game. Without a wealth of tape to go on against a program under a new head coach, St. Thomas will have to be ready to adjust on the fly.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset.
Ryan’s take: No. 17 Alfred.
This may not be because I’m high on RPI but instead because there are too many question marks surrounding Alfred. A returning starting quarterback Tom Secky is great to have, but does he have the supporting cast to put points on the board? RPI and the Liberty League should also be looking to redeem itself after a dismal 2010 season.
Keith’s take: No. 25 St. John’s. It wouldn’t be a major shock to have UW-Eau Claire and the Johnnies go to the wire, after an overtime game last season and three lead switches in the final 3:50 the year before. The Johnnies are coming off a 34-0 win in their opener, and the Blugolds a game where they gave up two TDs in the final six minutes to lose.
Pat’s take: No. 9 Hardin-Simmons. After a Week 1 in which each team had mildly surprising results, I just wonder if Hardin-Simmons has its way as easily with an opponent that didn’t bus 17 hours to go there. Instead, it’s the Cowboys with the long trip, to Willamette. Not that they’re busing to Oregon, mind you.

They’ll be on your radar.
Ryan’s take: Birmingham-Southern.
Five picks. Five sacks. A rusher who went for 193 yards. If stats tell stories, then the Panthers are on their way to writing a novel for 2011. This Saturday, Birmingham hosts in-state rival Huntington, which is also coming off a lopsided win. With the SCAC logging Week 1 wins from Centre, Trinity and B-S, it’ll be interesting to see which of these conference-title contenders separates itself over the next few weeks.
Keith’s take: Pacific. The second-year Boxers led 21-10 in the third quarter before causing a lot of their own problems in a 36-28 loss to Simon Fraser. Turnovers, penalties and poor special teams caused Pacific to unravel. The 11th game since the program’s revival could be its first win, if it cleans up the mistakes. The talent at former D-III member Menlo tends to vary wildly, suggesting it’s not out of the question for the Boxers to match up with the Oaks.
Pat’s take: Greenville. Likening this franchise to a little engine that could, as one of the favorites in the chase for the first UMAC crown. Last year this game took place later in the month and Millikin won by 10, but this year it’s Greenville’s sole non-conference game — the only chance for the team to impress outside of the league schedule.

Team playing its opener that you’re most curious about.
Ryan’s take: Wabash.
Opponent Wooster isn’t as frail as it seemed in a shutout loss to open the season. And Wabash is set to prove that with several stars back this fall, the Little Giants deserve to be in the Top 15 or 20 nationally. The Scots can make this interesting if they can do some things they weren’t able to do a week ago, namely, hang onto the ball and protect the backfield. It doesn’t sound easy, and it’s even harder to put that into practice. Wabash will bring pressure for 60 minutes and rattle Woo’s cage the whole way through.
Keith’s take: Montclair State. I think the Red Hawks have a good chance at being the first East Region in four seasons to earn a No. 1 seed and relegate Mount Union to its own bracket in the North. But, one step at a time, and Salve Regina is no pushover. Montclair State’s excursion into the NEFC couldn’t have gone any better last season, in a 34-0 win against Westfield State. This time around, points could be at a premium. I’ll be watching closely to see if the Red Hawks can take the first step toward being that banner-carrier for the East.
Pat’s take: Mount Union. Who isn’t? Especially after UW-Oshkosh held on to beat Central last week. The Titans also have a week of practice up on the Purple Raiders, but note that I didn’t put this game as surprisingly close.

Which team will bounce back from a Week 1 loss?
Ryan’s take: Ursinus.
The Bears surely learned after last week that what began in one half may not necessarily carry over to the next. There are things for Ursinus to build off of: posting almost 200 yards passing, picking off opponent Albright twice and having two players reach double digits in tackles. This week’s competition, Gettysburg, pushed an exciting game against Ursinus last season. No reason not to expect the same again — with Ursinus again coming out on top.
Keith’s take: No. 15 North Central. The Cardinals seem an obvious choice, as they were expected to be one of the nation’s elite teams before a loss at Redlands last week. They play another night game, but this one in front of the home crowd in Naperville. Bethel (Tenn.) pulled out a victory against UW-Eau Claire last week, but it will find a talented and eager-to-avoid-starting-0-2 team tougher to defeat.
Pat’s take: McDaniel. There have been some questions going around this week as to which team last week’s Widener-Moravian game more accurately reflects. (Widener won 44-6.) McDaniel took a tough loss in its opener against Catholic and both McDaniel and Moravian have show the propensity to give up points. But only McDaniel showed it can put them on the board as well.

Whose long road trip will turn out the best?
Ryan’s take: Ithaca’s.
The Bombers are traveling down to Maryland — a 6.5-hour trip — to play Salisbury in the Gulls’ first conference game as a member of the Empire 8. While Ithaca struggled last week against a lower tier NJAC team, Salisbury hardly earned the automatic upper hand this week after blowing out non-D-III opponent Newport News. Why Ithaca may do well on the road is because the Bombers bottled up Brockport State’s run game something fierce last week. Including QB sneaks and sacks, Brockport gained a mere 40 yards on 27 attempts. Ithaca will need to bring this mentality to do well on Saturday.
Keith’s take: Hamline’s. The Pipers have been looking for a breakthrough win for a while now, and a weakened Pacific Lutheran (10 starters back) is ripe for the picking. New coach John Pate debuts an option-based offense, and as it’s more rare these days, players have even less experience to draw on when trying to stop it.
Pat’s take: Illinois Wesleyan’s. The Titans got a great performance last week from someone who wasn’t supposed to be in a position to contribute this year, and wasn’t even in the school last year. But Tate Musselman, a transfer from North Central, found himself high on the depth chart after injuries at wide receiver and responded with 34- and 82-yard touchdown catches. The IWU defense will face a bigger test at Alma than it did at home against Hope, but should come out well.

Triple Take, Rivalry week

Eric Hamilton, Sean Clark
Coach Eric Hamilton, left, always seems to have his team up for archrival Rowan.

They always say that the records go out the window during a rivalry game. Players and coaches handle the emotions — and the pressures — of a rivalry differently. The teams aren’t the same as in other games; they have a unique fire inside them. They’re not always playing to go on to next week; more than ever, they’re playing for now.

The last weekend of the regular season plays host to rivalries across the country. Most people know the biggest ones: Williams/Amherst, Wabash/DePauw, Cortland State/Ithaca, Hampden-Sydney/Randolph-Macon. But there are many that are laced with history and excitement that deserve pomp as well: Muhlenberg/Moravian, Thomas More/Mount St. Joseph, Salisbury/Frostburg State, among others.

Throw down the gauntlet and pick up your spirits. Rivalry week is here. Pat Coleman, Keith McMillan and Ryan Tipps bring you the forecast to those types of games and more in the culmination of the regular season.

Game of the Week.
Ryan’s take: Willamette at No. 19 Pacific Lutheran.
Going into this weekend, the national landscape is still dotted with several one-loss teams (PLU included). Willamette’s chances for a Pool C bid are remote with two losses under its belt, but stranger things have happened when the NCAA gets its mitts on the criteria. And who knows how many teams will be in contention after Saturday afternoon. That leaves us with two teams, coming from the ultra-competitive Northwest Conference, having a lot at stake. Plus, it should be fun to see the collision between PLU and WU, which have scored 265 and 350 points, respectively, this season.
Pat’s take: No. 9 Wittenberg at Wooster. Wittenberg has played quite well at home, rather poorly on the road. Wittenberg’s home slate was relatively soft until this past week: Olivet, Ohio Wesleyan, the Wash U team which had lost at Rhodes the week before, Hiram and Kenyon. Then there was Wabash. Is that a new trend? Good year for the Tigers to have six games at home and four on the road, but Wittenberg will need this particular road victory in order to clinch the NCAC title.
Keith’s take: Wash. U. at Chicago. Though having in the neighborhood of a dozen teams still in pursuit of a bid in Pool C bid in Week 11 isn’t all that abnormal, having so many Pool B teams alive for a playoff spot is. Usually the three spots are all but wrapped up by now. The winner of the game between the Bears and Maroons will be put side-by-side with Salisbury for the third Pool B spot, making this the week’s best matchup of even teams with playoff implications.

Surprisingly close game.
Ryan’s take: No. 9 Wittenberg at Wooster.
Against decent teams this year, the Scots really haven’t won big nor have they lost big. And with a chance to force a three-way tie in the NCAC, Wooster has a lot to be playing for. What needs to happen? Wooster needs to improve its defense, especially its secondary, if it hopes to have a slice of the NCAC title pie. Big games can do crazy things to teams, and if Witt wants its ticket punched, it will have to earn it.
Pat’s take: No. 23 Montclair State at William Paterson. Based this off of last week’s closer-than-expected Montclair State-Brockport State. The Pioneers have had a bit of a bad stretch of late, but they’re at home, and needing a win to finish the season at .500.
Keith’s take: No. 13 Wartburg at Simpson. Teams with their playoff spots clinched already worry me. It’s important to remember even if you’re in the field of 32, you’re still playing for a potential home game and a better matchup. But unless it’s stressed to them, college kids aren’t always tuned in to such minute details. And every year some team plays its way out of a good situation in Week 11 and gets sent on the road to a powerhouse instead. With one of the nation’s best scoring defenses (No. 11, 11.11 points per game) against one of the worst scoring offenses (No. 218, 13.67), there’s no reason Wartburg, which plowed through its six of its first seven opponents but has beaten the past two by single digits, should lose. But human nature might make it a more difficult win than it would seem.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset.
Ryan’s take: No. 17 Cal Lutheran.
In recent years, Cal Lutheran and Occidental have traded wins when they’ve played each other. Not that that’s any real indicator of 2010, when the Kingsmen have a huge win on their resume, but it’s just something to keep in mind. If Cal Lutheran’s secondary doesn’t stay on its toes, it will get shredded by Luke Collis and his receivers. A win is crucial for the Kingsmen because they certainly want to soak up some momentum going into the postseason — especially if they’re going to be forced into a rematch with Linfield.
Pat’s take: No. 19 Pacific Lutheran. Both teams are motivated, we get that. PLU needs the win to stay in the playoff hunt, while Willamette … well, the Bearcats could be in the discussion if enough teams lose, I suppose. But I am looking at this game because I think Willamette has been pushed back under the radar a little unfairly considering their resume this season: two “good” losses and a pretty good road win as well.
Keith’s take: No. 7 Hardin-Simmons. The Cowboys are very deserving of a Pool C bid, especially if they take care of business against 6-3 Louisiana College, a team I thought might have a chance to play its way in in Week 11 way back in Kickoff. HSU is 26th in the country in pass efficiency defense, and it should be able to match up against the nation’s most prolific passing attack and No. 3 scoring offense (LC throws for 387 yards per game and scores about 46 points). But even with the Cowboys being able to match that (304 and 45) and playing to keep postseason hopes alive, the potential here for a shootout makes it a more likely place for an upset than most.

They’ll be on your radar.
Ryan’s take: Louisiana College.
Starting the season 1-3, the Wildcats fell from the broader public discourse early in the season. But at 6-1 in the ASC, they are clearly in the conference’s top tier this season. And they’re coming off a dramatic late-game win against McMurry before hosting Hardin-Simmons this Saturday. HSU is looking to pick up a playoff spot, but LC is ready to spoil that effort and have sole control of No. 2 in the conference. Averaging 385 yards a game, LC’s Ben McLaughlin is the ASC’s most prolific passer. He has just 12 interceptions in over 400 attempts and has connected for scores 37 times.
Pat’s take: Christopher Newport. With the Captains hosting Methodist and already holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over North Carolina Wesleyan, it seems like a foregone conclusion that CNU will be returning to the playoffs. And although they’ll be 6-4, they’ll have cover from St. Lawrence, which will be 5-5 at best, possibly 4-6. Frostburg State is a bad loss back on Week 3, but there haven’t been any other bad losses and four consecutive wins on top of it.
Keith’s take: St. Lawrence. They’re going to make the playoffs yet finish with a losing record. I’d be willing to bet the just-less-than-500-miles-to-Alliance Saints are going to Mount Union next Saturday for a first-round exposure to what a serious D-III playoff team looks like. So the least St. Lawrence can do is beat WPI on Saturday and go in at 5-5 with its heads held high and its confidence up so that it can at least buy into the dream in Ohio, even if it will be hard for the rest of us to do so.

Rivalry game you’re most interested in (alma maters excluded).
Ryan’s take: Randolph-Macon at Hampden-Sydney.
For the first time since 2006, both of the teams in The Game don’t have a shot at going to the postseason. One of them does, however: H-SC. The Tigers can’t win the Old Dominion’s automatic qualifier, but they have some quality wins that will put them in good shape for Pool C contention. While H-SC averages over 420 yards of offense a game, turnovers have been a dangerous Achilles heel for the team. And what’s the story with R-MC? The Yellow Jackets saw their star fade when they lost their fifth-year starting quarterback midway through October. At this point, pride is the biggest thing on the table for them. A worthy goal, to be sure.
Pat’s take: No. 20 Rowan at TCNJ. TCNJ put up a surprise against Kean last week, winning 7-0, holding Jason Gwaltney under 100 yards rushing. Eric Hamilton didn’t win 200-plus games for nothing and don’t expect TCNJ to come out with anything less than everything it’s got against its archrival. This game was good when played on a Friday night, but it belongs in Week 11 and the NJAC should do everything it can to keep it there.
Keith’s take: Hanover at No. 24 Franklin. Victory Bell rivalry game makes it worth watching alone. But put the HCAC title and automatic bid on the line, and ratchet up the excitement to fever pitch. It’s simple, some are going to respond to the pressure, some might wilt under it, and perhaps if most on both teams rise to the challenge, you get a game for the ages, and the winner gets at least one more week of season.

Who will have the least momentum going into the playoffs?
Ryan’s take: No. 6 Mary Hardin-Baylor.
Lack of momentum won’t necessarily be a reason to pick against them when they (presumably) rematch Hardin-Simmons next weekend, but the Crusaders have played their last two games against teams that combine to be 3-15. And UMHB hasn’t been challenged in the least. Saturday, they face off against Texas Lutheran, whose 4-5 wouldn’t be so bad until you realize that they’ve lost three of their last four games, getting crushed in those losses. UMHB had better be ready to step up its game once Round 1 rolls around if it hopes to make it to Round 2.
Pat’s take: St. Lawrence. Regardless of what happens Saturday.
Keith’s take: Coe. There are the games competitors look forward to because they know their best effort will be required, and then there are the ones against 0-9 teams. Cornell might give a better than ‘just playing out the string’ effort for its longtime rival, but Coe should be pulling its starters out early in the second half. And while it’s good to get out and stretch your legs, the Kohawks are going to have to play someone like St. Thomas or Bethel next week. Saturday probably won’t much resemble that.

Which team can alter its fortunes the most?
Ryan’s take: Centre.
The fortunes in question may be long-term. There were high expectations of the Colonels at the beginning of the season, but hiccups from the outset cast a lot of shadows over this team. The offense has just a few seniors in its ranks; the defense, though, is another story. Lots of starters will be graduating. Going up against 3-6 LaGrange, one of the best things Centre can do is make sure that younger defenders see some time on the field. Next year doesn’t have to be another middle-of-the-pack season.
Pat’s take: Hanover. There are a couple of good answers but I think the best ones in terms of playoff hopes come from the teams that could basically snipe a conference title here at the end of the season. Or snooker, as Keith referred to it on the podcast this week. We can’t say Hanover hasn’t been on the radar this season, because we did think they would take an incremental step forward this season, but this is a team that’s one step away. A win Saturday takes them from last year’s 3-7 to the playoffs.
Keith’s take: Trine. The Thunder could wrap up a 10-0 season and a likely first-round home game with a win over MIAA foe Albion. A loss to the Britons gives them the automatic bid, then sends Trine into the muck: The group of 10 or so one-loss teams who will be hoping their combination of strength of schedule and wins over regionally ranked opponents gets them an at-large bid. Trine has very little to go on there, so they either win and get in and maybe host the Hanover/Franklin winner, or finish an otherwise great season with a thud.

ATN Podcast: Tiebreakers, bids and rivalries

Defense
Kentel Noel and Christopher Newport still control their own destiny.
CNU photo by Heidi Naylor

So much to talk about this week and we didn’t even get to it all — we try to keep the podcast under an hour and almost did so this week. But not quite.

Let’s run it down for you.

  • Six conferences yet to be decided
  • Three could end up in three-way tiebreakers
  • Pool B took another blow. Who gets those bids?
  • Are those new faces or just bad teams in the playoffs?
  • How did W&L and Muhlenberg sneak up on everyone?
  • Pat and Keith talk about their trips to Wittenberg and Muhlenberg
  • Rivalry games still have a lot to play for

That just about covers it. All that and yes, more, in the Around the Nation podcast.

Click the play button below to listen.

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