Dave’s Top 25 ballot – Week 12

After the last few weeks and with conference schedules wrapping up and tournaments beginning, I was pretty much expecting my weekly Top 25 efforts to once again be challenging. So I was pleasantly surprised when watching the week and weekend unfold and seeing very little carnage on the men’s side. Of the 25 teams, only seven took losses and all were single losses. It gave me a chance to take a deep breath before what will surely be plenty of carnage for Week 12’s ballot.

It seemed to be a birthday present to me of which I am very grateful!

With the lack of carnage also meant for the first time in weeks I had very few possibilities to bring in a new team to my ballot. That did make it challenging in terms of who to pick from at least ten teams, but it also made selecting who would fall out of the poll a bit easier.

So, here is my Top 25, which you will notice features ten teams that didn’t move up or down and features 24 teams I had in last week’s poll. As we get started, here is a reminder of my rather frustrating ballot last week.

1 – UW-Stevens Point (Unchanged)

2 – Cabrini (Unchanged)

3 – Illinois Wesleyan (Unchanged)

4 – Wash U. (Unchanged)

5 – Wooster (Unchanged)

6 – UW-Whitewater (Unchanged)

7 – Amherst (Unchanged)

8 – St. Norbert (Unchanged)

9 – Williams (Up 1)

10 – Wesley (Up 1)

11 – WPI (Up 1)

12 – Randolph-Macon (Up 3)
The Yellow Jackets continue to play very good basketball in one of the toughest conference in the country. They had a big rivalry game against Hampden-Sydney and it turned out to be no contest. I think that alone told me a lot about RMC since in any rivalry game and no matter the records going in, things happen.

13 – St. Thomas (Down 4)
A single loss isn’t usually the death nail for a team, but the loss to St. John’s marked a season sweep of the Tommies by the Johnnies. Do you know the last time that happen?! Ok, it’s the second time in three years, but if the Tommies are that good it should never have happened! I am not sure if I have been overrated with the Tommies, but the MIAC tournament will give all of us a better sense of just how good or not St. Thomas really is.

14 – Texas-Dallas (Unchanged)
The Comets take a loss and don’t move in my rankings. I know, even I had to look long and hard at that for a while. The loss was to Mary Hardin-Baylor who have now rattled off eight wins in a row and could cause plenty of problems in the ASC tournament (heard that script before?), so I wasn’t going to knock the Comets too hard for that in the first place. However, I also couldn’t justifying moving them behind teams further down the poll. Many pollsters talk about what I call the pillow effect: a team only falls as far as those below them allows. In some cases, if there are enough losses happening further down the poll, a team can only fall so far. In this case, there are teams behind Texas-Dallas I don’t think are 14th in the country, limiting their fall to… zero.

15 – Mary Washington (Up 3)
This may be a steep rise for the Eagles who seemed in disarray and are only back to their winning ways because they played the bottom of the CAC in the last few weeks, but I also didn’t have a good reason to move teams behind them ahead of them. So consider this filling in the empty spot at 15 instead of my indication that I think everything is okay in Fredericksburg, Virginia.

16 – Albertus Magnus (Up 3)
Another example of maybe too big a leap in my Top 25. I think the Falcons are a good team, but I am not convinced they are world beaters and will go far in the NCAA tournament (they are welcome to prove me wrong). They are moving up, though, thanks to Purchase State losing. Despite a head-to-head win over Albertus Magnus over Purchase State, I had the Falcons behind because of a bad loss in conference. Now Purchase has picked up a similar resume blemish and thus AMC moves ahead.

17 – Centre (Up 4)
Similar to Mary Washington, I was going to move the Colonels up the rankings anyway, they just moved a little further north then I intended. These kind of moves and my concern they are too big a leap further explains why I didn’t feel comfortable moving Texas-Dallas down and opening up the 14-hole.

18 – Whitworth (Down 2)
Losing to Lewis and Clark on the road in overtime probably deserved a bigger drop, but there is only so far I can drop the Pirates before I run into teams I think Whitworth would beat on any court. The loss doesn’t bode well for Whitworth’s post-season aspirations of playing deep into March, but it could also be the spark that finally ignites a team I think has been playing below-par all season.

19 – Purchase State (Down 2)
Again… I can only drop Purchase State so far before there are teams I don’t think they deserve to be behind on the ballot. Their loss this past week to St. Joseph’s (Long Island) is unforgiveable and is not going to help them when it comes down to possible hosting opportunities in the NCAA tournament, but maybe they can use the loss as the motivation they need to focus on the task at hand.

(Side note: Does anyone else find it interesting that Albertus Magnus and Purchase State both lost to St. Joseph’s teams in their conference? AMC to St. Joe’s of Main and Purchase to St. Joe’s of Long Island. Fascinating.)

20 – Hope (Unranked)
There are plenty of teams I thought about bringing on to my ballot with better records, but Hope is playing better than most, I think. The Flying Dutchmen have won 11 in a row and are blowing teams out in their conference. They have a season sweep of Calvin and are very highly ranked by the NCAA regional (and national) committee. I have honestly been waiting for the shoe (pun intended) to drop thus why I have been leery about putting Hope on my ballot. However, they appear to be getting stronger and could end up being a surprise in the NCAA tournament after their season started 1-4 and 3-5!

21 – Brockport State (Down 8)
Yes, the Golden Eagles went 2-1 with just that lone loss to a good Oswego State squad, but they are playing without their best player who may be out for the reason of the season with a knee injury. John Ivy is a tremendous player, but his status is known (I have heard nothing official from anyone) and I have to work under the assumption he is out for the year. That changes this squad completely and I don’t think they are nearly as good as they were with him in the line-up. Brockport will make the NCAA 7tournament, but without Ivy they are not a Top 15 team.

22 – Staten Island (Up 1)

23 – Scranton (Up 1)

24 – Rose-Hulman (Down 2)
The Engineers eight-game winning streak came to an end at the hands of Mount St. Joseph’s (what’s with the St. Joe’s-named teams?!), but I don’t think that is a horrible loss for Rose-Hulman. I am willing to give them the benefit of the doubt since they had the conference regular season wrapped up and were going to host the conference semifinals and championship no matter the outcome (they had swept Defiance this season).

25 – Richard Stockton (Unchanged)

Dropped out:

Ohio Wesleyan (Previously 20)
I don’t know what to make of the Battling Bishops or for that matter the NCAC. After DePauw looked great, they fell apart. After Wittenberg looked great, they have struggled. Now Ohio Wesleyan looked great and they seem to be unraveling. Mike DeWitt’s team is 3-3 in the last six games. I just don’t think they are playing like a Top 25 team.

Other ballots:
Week 11
Week 10
Week 9
Week 8
Week 7
Week 6
Week 5
Week 3
Week 1

ODACcess: The Game (Hampden-Sydney @ Randolph-Macon)

ASHLAND, Va. — When those of us who love college sports are faced with criticism of the quality by professional fans, we’re quick to cite the rivalries between schools as a mark in our favor. Every sport, every level, rivalries create intrigue, even when there’s nothing but pride to play for. We fans love to name these rivalries (The Iron Bowl, Bedlam, The Civil War), but for the biggest of these rivalries no name is required. These are simply known as “The Game”.

At the Division I level, Ohio State-Michigan and Yale-Harvard get the attention that their size and large fan bases demand. In D-III basketball, most would say that no rivalry matches Hope-Calvin. But across all sports, and in all manner of non-athletic comparisons, no rivalry at our level matches “The Game,” between Randolph-Macon College and Hampden-Sydney College.

Our goal in starting this project was to go to every gym in the ODAC, and with our visit to Crenshaw Gym in Ashland we accomplished our goal. We’ve seen loud atmospheres in our travels (and some not so much), but until Wednesday night, we hadn’t seen anything like what the Yellow Jackets faithful brought out to face the Tigers. As soon as you got onto R-MC’s campus you could feel the buzz, and it only grew as you entered the gym for tip-off. The parking lots were full, the gym was sold out, and media outlets that don’t usually cover Division III basketball (i.e. the NBC and CBS affiliates in nearby Richmond) sent their representatives.

IMG_20140219_191102_001

When the season started, this matchup looked like it might be for the ODAC regular season title. R-MC was the preseason favorite, H-SC close on their heels, and both had earned preseason top-25 nods. The season has not played out quite as expected for the Tigers, who lost their first tilt with Macon at home, and entered the rematch with a .500 conference record. As such, this matchup wouldn’t have the same drama as their contests in 2003 and 2004 when they met as top 10 teams, even if Randolph-Macon could seal an ODAC title with a win. But when two rival schools meet up for their 138th matchup since 1956, the stakes cease to matter.

Unfortunately for the sizeable contingent of H-SC partisans in attendance, their Tigers didn’t seem to play with the urgency the rivalry demanded. One notable exception was Khobi Williamson, who strengthened his case for another All-ODAC nod. He scored the first six Tiger points, before the entire team went into a prolonged funk. This wasn’t entirely their fault, though. Coach Nathan Davis’s squad was hounding the Tigers on defense, forcing turnovers and poor shot selection. They used this to jump out to a 16-7 lead with 14 minutes on the clock, on the back of a pair of Jamie Wilson treys.

But the shooting exhibition had not yet begun. At the 9:33 mark, Chris Hamilton entered the game. Hamilton is a role-player in the purest and least pejorative sense: he can shoot and shoot and shoot, and when you start to defend him deep, he’ll ignore it at shoot some more. In his 12 minutes per game, he’s established himself as one of the best sharpshooters in the conference (behind only Randolph College’s Seth Wimbish). 40 seconds after entering, he hit his first three pointer, extending the Jackets’ lead to 28-17.

In addition to being a rivalry game, this game was also the final Jackets regular season home game, and therefore was Senior Night for Andre Simon and Jamie Robinson. They both took the opportunity to show off, especially Simon, who unleashed a tremendous dunk to bring the house down, and later attempted another in windmill style (which impressed even as it clanged off the rim). Only Williamson seemed able to match the energy with which the Jackets played, but he was not able to carry the team. Especially with Hamilton about to enter the game again.

IMG_20140219_192507_460

With under five minutes remaining, and sitting on a 10 point lead, Coach Davis decided to spell his starters, and prepare to go in for the half. Part of the relief was Chris Hamilton, already 1-for-1 on the night. After a Marcus Badger steal, Andre Simon found Hamilton with a pass and Hamilton drilled his second three. Then he drilled his third. And his fourth. With 13 ticks on the clock, he set up to attempt his fifth, before being fouled hard on the shot. After nailing all three free throws, the Tigers went to the locker room up 14 points, with Hamilton still perfect from the floor and the line, scoring 15 points in his 7 minutes.

Out of the break, Macon quickly went to work extending their lead, with Akeem Holmes and Connor Sulivan contributing 10 points as part of a 16-9 run. Chris Hamilton re-entered the game, and picked up right where he left off, hitting a pair of deep treys, in the process breaking his career high, all but sealing the victory for the Yellow Jackets. Despite Khobi Williamson’s best efforts, the Tigers never recovered, trailing by at least 22 for the remainder of the game. Hamilton, to raucous applause, drilled two more three-pointers, capping off an 8-for-8 performance, before R-MC went to the end of their bench for the last few minutes.

We usually remember rivalries for their close contests, when the underdog steps up their game to play a hated foe. This was not one of those games, as Macon ended all doubt early. But the season’s not over; there’s a whole conference tournament remaining, and if last year is any indication, R-MC shouldn’t rest on their laurels just yet. They remember upsetting the Tigers in Salem after being swept in their prior meetings. If anything, this loss could serve to fuel H-SC’s quest for revenge, or maybe provide the boost a burgeoning contender like Randolph-Macon needs to make a deep postseason run. One season is just about over, but a new season is about to begin.

• Final: Randolph-Macon Yellow Jackets 90, Hampden-Sydney Tigers 67
• Player of the Game: Chris Hamilton (27 points, 8-8 on threes, 3-3 on free throws)
• Mileage Tracker: 2807 miles
• Next Stop: TBD, ODAC Tournament First Round (February 25)

NCAA regional rankings, Week 2

The men’s and women’s regional rankings have been released.

Need to know more about the regional rankings process and what they mean? Need to know more about the NCAA Tournament? Check out our NCAA Tournament FAQ.

  • Last week’s regional rankings
  • The first record is Division III record, followed by overall.
    Through games of Sunday, Feb. 16.

    NCAA Division III men’s basketball championships handbook

    Men’s rankings
    Atlantic Region – NCAA data sheet
    1 SUNY-Purchase 21-1 21-1
    2 Richard Stockton 20-4 20-4
    3 Rutgers-Newark 18-6 18-6
    4 William Paterson 19-5 19-5
    5 Staten Island 22-2 22-2
    6 Mt. St. Mary 17-5 17-5

    East – NCAA data sheet
    1 Brockport State 19-2 20-2
    2 Plattsburgh State 18-4 18-4
    3 Geneseo State 17-4 18-4
    4 Hobart 18-6 18-6
    5 Stevens 14-7 16-7
    6 New York University 15-7 15-7

    Great Lakes – NCAA data sheet
    1 Wooster 19-2 20-3
    2 Hope 16-5 17-6
    3 Ohio Wesleyan 18-5 18-5
    4 Bethany 18-4 19-4
    5 Mount Union 19-4 19-4
    6 Marietta 17-5 18-5
    7 Wittenberg 17-6 17-6

    Mid-Atlantic – NCAA data sheet
    1 Scranton 20-3 20-3
    2 Cabrini 20-1 20-1
    3 Wesley 18-2 20-2
    4 Dickinson 19-4 19-4
    5 Messiah 18-4 18-4
    6 Stevenson 16-7 16-7
    7 Mary Washington 17-5 18-5
    8 Alvernia 16-7 16-7
    9 Hood 16-7 16-7

    Midwest – NCAA data sheet
    1 Washington U. 20-2 20-2
    2 Illinois Wesleyan 20-3 20-3
    3 Wheaton (Ill.) 17-7 17-7
    4 Augustana 18-6 18-6
    5 St. Norbert 19-1 20-1
    6 Carthage 14-8 15-9
    7 Rose-Hulman 19-4 19-4
    8 Milwaukee School of Engineering 20-4 20-4

    Northeast – NCAA data sheet
    1 Amherst 21-2 21-3
    2 Williams 20-3 21-3
    3 Babson 18-5 18-5
    4 Eastern Connecticut 18-5 18-5
    5 WPI 20-3 20-3
    6 Bowdoin 19-4 19-4
    7 Springfield 15-6 16-6
    8 Albertus Magnus 21-1 21-2
    9 Rhode Island College 16-7 16-7
    10 Nichols 18-5 18-5
    11 Middlebury 15-8 16-8

    South – NCAA data sheet
    1 Randolph-Macon 18-5 18-5
    2 Virgina Wesleyan 16-6 17-6
    3 Emory 15-7 15-7
    4 Texas-Dallas 21-2 21-2
    5 Centre 15-3 18-4
    6 Guilford 16-6 16-6
    7 Oglethorpe 17-4 19-4
    8 Hardin-Simmons 16-6 16-7

    West – NCAA data sheet
    1 UW-Stevens Point 22-1 22-1
    2 UW-Whitewater 21-3 21-3
    3 St. Thomas 20-3 20-3
    4 St. Olaf 18-5 18-5
    5 Dubuque 17-3 20-3
    6 Whitworth 19-4 19-4
    7 Pomona-Pitzer 16-5 16-7
    8 Colorado College 14-5 16-6
    9 Augsburg 16-7 16-7

    Women’s

    The first record is in-region record, followed by overall record.

     

    • NCAA Division III women’s basketball championships handbook
      Atlantic
      1 Montclair State 22-2 22-2
      2 York (Pa.) 20-2 21-2
      3 Christopher Newport 18-3 20-3
      4 Baruch 17-7 17-7
      5 TCNJ 18-6 18-6
      6 Mary Washington 15-7 16-7

      Central
      1 Washington U. 20-2 20-2
      2 Carthage 19-3 20-3
      3 UW-Whitewater 21-3 21-3
      4 UW-Oshkosh 19-3 20-3
      5 Wisconsin Lutheran 20-3 20-3
      6 Wheaton (Ill.) 16-5 18-5
      7 UW-Stevens Point 16-7 16-7
      8 Illinois Wesleyan 16-7 16-7

      East
      1 Ithaca 18-4 20-4
      2 Vassar 18-4 18-4
      3 New York University 18-4 18-4
      4 Plattsburgh State 17-5 17-5
      5 Hartwick 17-4 18-4
      6 William Smith 18-6 18-6

      Great Lakes
      1 DePauw 24-0 24-0
      2 Hope 23-0 23-0
      3 Thomas More 23-0 23-0
      4 Ohio Northern 19-4 19-4
      5 Baldwin Wallace 18-5 18-5
      6 John Carroll 17-3 18-3
      7 Transylvania 20-2 21-2
      8 Olivet 18-2 20-3

      Mid-Atlantic
      1 FDU-Florham 22-0 23-0
      2 Scranton 20-3 20-3
      3 Haverford 18-3 19-3
      4 Moravian 19-4 19-4
      5 Cabrini 19-4 19-4
      6 Elizabethtown 18-4 18-4
      7 DeSales 18-5 18-5
      8 Lebanon Valley 18-5 18-5

      Northeast
      1 Tufts 23-1 23-1
      2 Amherst 22-2 22-2
      3 Williams 20-4 20-4
      4 Bowdoin 20-4 20-4
      5 University of New England 21-2 21-2
      6 Wheaton (Mass.) 19-5 19-5
      7 Roger Williams 19-4 19-4
      8 Rhode Island College 16-7 16-7
      9 Eastern Connecticut State 16-7 16-7
      10 Emmanuel (Mass.) 17-6 17-6
      11 Castleton 21-3 21-3
      12 Southern Maine 16-7 16-7

      South
      1 Ferrum 19-1 20-1
      2 Rhodes 19-3 19-3
      3 Texas-Tyler 20-3 20-3
      4 Maryville (Tenn.) 18-4 19-4
      5 Randolph-Macon 18-4 18-5
      6 Texas-Dallas 18-5 18-5
      7 Emory 16-6 16-6
      8 Eastern Mennonite 18-4 19-4
      9 Trinity (Texas) 14-7 17-7

      West
      1 Whitman 18-0 23-0
      2 St. Mary’s (Minn.) 21-2 21-2
      3 George Fox 17-3 19-3
      4 Concordia-Moorhead 18-4 19-4
      5 St. Thomas 19-4 19-4
      6 Whitworth 15-3 18-5
      7 Chapman 18-3 18-5
      8 Claremont-Mudd-Scripps 16-3 20-3

      Regional score reporting forms (including SOS) below:
      Atlantic | Central | East | Great Lakes | Mid-Atlantic | Northeast | South | West

    ODACcess: Green Means Go (Lynchburg at Shenandoah)

    WINCHESTER, Va. — The National Basketball Association is a league about star players. The nature of basketball allows single players to have an incredible influence on the performance of their teams. The best players in the NBA have talent far beyond the league average, and so their performances are especially noteworthy.

    You’re less likely to see a player who can take over a game at the collegiate level, and even less likely to see it at the Division III level. If the NBA is a players’ game, college basketball belongs to the coaches. That’s one of the things that attracts me to the game in the first place: how coaches carefully balance the style they want to play and the athletes they recruit.

    Sometimes, though, there is a player, who can be a dominant force, who will shine no matter what system he’s put in. In Division I, these players often play their one required year of college ball, before moving on to greener pastures. In Division III, we’re treated to four years of watching these players work their magic, while also engaging with them off the court. The College of Wooster, my alma mater, had a player like that in Ian Franks. Randolph College had Colton Hunt, who gave a jolt of energy to the nascent WildCats program. Cabrini College has Aaron Walton-Moss, who (academic struggles aside) has electrified Delaware County for nearly three years. Shenandoah University has Avery Green, who clearly appears to be this year’s frontrunner for ODAC player of the year.

    SU's Avery Green being honored at Senior Day

    Green got his start in Spotsylvania County, outside Fredericksburg, playing at Courtland High School, where he earned All-State honors as a senior, but was not recruited heavily, and so he applied to Shenandoah hoping to continue his basketball career. He established himself as a starter by his sophomore year, leading the team with 423 points in 27 games, averaging over 30 minutes in each start. Poised to have a breakout season as a junior, Green struggled early in the season before going down with an injury, and the Hornets limped along to a 1-15 finish in its inaugural ODAC season. You couldn’t begrudge an SU fan for being concerned about prospects for this season, Green’s last in Winchester.

    The rest of the ODAC seemed to have doubts as well, picking the Hornets dead last in the preseason poll. If they were worried about Green’s production, they shouldn’t have. In his first official game back, against Methodist, he put up 29 points. When we first saw him, at the ACAC South Region Classic, he scored 37 points in 39 minutes against his hometown Mary Washington Eagles. In the process, he showed he could score from all over the floor. He’s barely slowed since, shooting nearly 53% from the floor, including 37.5% from beyond the arc, and accruing 23 points per game.

    This brings us to Shenandoah’s game against Lynchburg College. Despite Green’s monster of a season, SU still found themselves in the bottom half of the ODAC. Their record all but guaranteed this game would be their last in Shingleton Gym for the season, and Avery Green’s (along with three other seniors’) final career home game. He received a rousing ovation upon his introduction, as his accomplishments were listed over the PA system.

    Manny Hernandez (#24) and Kevin Lescaint (#1) fight for the tip-off.

    For the first eight minutes, however, he did not exhibit his typical magic. Still, his presence was felt, as Coach Hilliary Scott kept a double team on Green, opening gaps for his fellow Hornets, including fellow senior Dante Seraile, who scored five SU’s first 14 points. Coach Rob Pryor put Green on the bench with twelve on the clock, and the visiting Hornets up 19-14 over the home ones.

    Meanwhile, Austen Arnold was giving Lynchburg an excellent effort off the bench, making up for an off-night from LC star Manny Hernandez, scoring 13 points. After SU’s center Kevin Lecsaint went out, Lynchburg’s size advantage became even more pronounced, allowing them to score with ease in the paint, as well as getting to the foul line. After Green reentered the game, he became Coach Pryor’s defensive general, and completely took over on the offensive side of the floor, scoring 8 of the last 11 Shenandoah points in the half, going to the break down 6.

    It was more of the same for Green in the second half, accounting for more than half of SU’s offensive production. Unfortunately, that also meant he was receiving little help on offense. Xavier Alston pulled down seven offensive boards, but they did not translate to points.

    Avery Green (#4) drives into the lane, before drawing contact under the basket

    Lynchburg, on the other hand, spread the ball around, allowing eight players in their ten-man rotation to score, but none of them in double figures. While they scored at a less prodigious pace than in the first, they did what they needed to do. And despite forcing 11 turnovers, SU was unable to convert them into fast-break points. Although they pulled within one early in the half, they were never able to take the lead, as Lynchburg won 74-67.

    A bulletin board in Shingleton Hall displays small bios of SU’s basketball team. Avery Green’s mentions his favorite moment as an SU basketball player (defeating North Carolina Wesleyan in the USA South tournament is sophomore year) as well as his plans for the future. He says he wants to play professionally, overseas. When we got the opportunity to interview Avery, he was quick to give credit to his teammates and coaches for his accomplishments, saying that “every award that I’ve gotten this year is because of them.” When asked to recall his experiences in Division III basketball, he recalled his first game, also in Shingleton against Eastern Mennonite, and his nerves upon getting in the game, and the faster pace of the college game. Given his development from nervous freshman to dominant senior, we have to believe he has the ability and the drive to accomplish his goals.

    • Final: Lynchburg Fighting Hornets 74, Shenandoah Hornets 67
    • Player of the Game: Avery Green (Shenandoah, 28 points, 5 rebounds, 3 steals)
    • Honorable Mention: Austen Arnold (Lynchburg, 17 points on 6 field goal attempts, 5 rebounds)
    • Check out our photos on Flickr
    • Mileage Tracker: 2668 miles
    • Next Stop: Hampden-Sydney at Randolph-Macon (The Game), February 19

    Dave’s Top 25 ballot: Week 11

    I have no confidence in about 99% of the Division III teams, right now. None.

    I talked to a few of the Top 25 voters this week as either I reached out to them to get their take on a few teams or they reached out to me and the one thing I quickly figured out: this is getting harder and harder. That may not mean something to non-voters or general Division III fans, but trust me when I say that this time of the season usually means less work on the Top 25 because teams have proven themselves and are ready for the last few weeks of the season.

    Not this year.

    I have almost no faith in my picks anymore. I have no confidence that where I have a team slotted is actually where they should be. I have a lot of confidence that I have some teams too high on my ballot and as a result I find myself stuck in no-man’s-land when dealing with losses even if a host of teams behind a team that has lost didn’t lose (see Cabrini).

    I joked with one pollster that I want to submit my ballot with UW-Stevens Point number one… and leave the rest of the ballot blank. Not that no other team is a Top 25 squad, but because none of the teams I have in my Top 25 really seem like they deserve their ranking – they all may be too high!

    And Cabrini really had me debating. Not necessarily because they lost, but because of who was behind them and how that would impact where they sat in the rankings. I actually changed my mind at least four times and came up with four different solutions… not liking any of them. I ended up staying pat with last week in hopes the coming week can give some better clarity.

    As I begin, here is a reminder of last week’s ballot.

    1 – UW-Stevens Point (Unchanged)

    2 – Cabrini (Unchanged)
    This will shock people and I really don’t know what to say. I could explain it six ways to Sunday and still not necessarily agree with it myself. It came down to a few things: was the loss to Baptist Bible bad? Yes. Was the last two weeks for Cabrini strange? Yes. Are they getting healthy again? Seem to be. Am I comfortable bringing other teams up to the number-two spot? No. Aaron Walton-Moss appears to be headed back from his injury and to paraphrase Mike Show from Baptist Bible, he is still a very dangerous player even on just one leg. This team does have a weak conference and their SOS shows that, but a weak schedule hasn’t stopped the Cavs from being minutes away from a national championship two years ago and making a challenging run to the elite eight last season. I am willing to trust my gut and Coach Markus Kahn on this one, but could I regret this decision in a week? Yes.

    3 – Illinois Wesleyan (Unchanged)
    Yeah, the Titans were knocking on the door of number-two thanks to Cabrini’s loss, but I just don’t feel they are the second-best team in the country… or even third-best. They have three-losses all in conference and could even lose the regular-season title to quirky Wheaton (Ill.) should they lose to the Thunder this week. Can I really be comfortable putting the Titans that far up my ballot if they may not even be the one-seed in their own conference tournament to a team I have on the outside-looking-in of my ballot? Yikes.
    (EDIT: I mistakenly stated IWU has three-losses in conference, they indeed have two. I was thinking if they lost to Wheaton, they would pick up a third loss and incorrectly added that to their total. Furthermore, I should state that saying “they would lose the regular-season title” I meant they would lose the #1 seed. My good friend Bob Quillman pointed out my mistakes and I am grateful.)

    4 – Wash U. (Unchanged)
    More of the same with the Bears of Washington University. I have stated in past weeks I am nervous with this team this far up in ballot and I know I am not the only one thinking that. Again, had I moved Cabrini down it probably would have resulted in Wash U. moving up to number three and that simply makes me cringe. I like how the Bears are playing and they are rolling away with the UAA title, but I am not sure their conference standing is a sign of how good the Bears are or proves that the rest of the UAA took a step back (or for some more than one) this season.

    5 – Wooster (Unchanged)
    I seriously considered moving Wooster down this week not for what they did on the court, but for what the rest of the conference did – or didn’t do. The Scots now have a two-game lead in a conference that doesn’t have anyone really stepping up at this point in the season. If ever I would to demote a team for what the rest of the conference was doing, this would be it. However, I also thought it wouldn’t be fair to Wooster… for now.

    6 – UW-Whitewater (Unchanged)

    7 – Amherst (Unchanged)

    8 – St. Norbert (Unchanged)

    9 – St. Thomas (Unchanged)

    10 – Williams (Unchanged)

    11 – Wesley (Unchanged)

    12 – WPI (Unchanged)

    13 – Brockport State (Up 2)

    14 – Texas-Dallas (Up 2)
    Here is about the point in the ballot I am ready to throw things around and scream bloody murder… and maybe it actually starts with Brockport State as well. These teams seem too high up. In fact, they probably are too high up. Texas-Dallas is having a good year, but honestly their only resume highlight is that they are cruising in their conference. They also probably have to win the conference tournament to make the NCAA tournament thanks to the new 22-game schedule the ASC has implemented (though the Comets are #2 in the South Regional Rankings in Week 1). The second half of my ballot is nuts.

    15 – Randolph-Macon (Down 1)
    This may surprise people since the Yellow Jackets lost to Eastern Mennonite this past week, but to me I considered a couple of things. This was RMC’s first loss since losing a close game at Cabrini on December 18, Eastern Mennonite actually has some solid wins this season, the game was on the road, and the ODAC has probably more parity from top to bottom this season then in a long time (ten of the twelve teams have above-.500 records right now). Coach Nathan Davis has proven he can get his team clicking late in the season, so I can’t fault a single loss in the last fifteen games. One other factor, there was enough turmoil in the lower half of my Top 25 ballot that there was only so far for the Yellow Jackets to fall.

    16 – Whitworth (Up 2)
    Guh… I am pretty sure this is too high for the Bucs. I like how Whitworth plays and they are well coached, but my concerns coming out of Las Vegas have not changed. They are short on the bench, especially on the inside, and they sometimes lack the fire power they need to put teams away. Those concerns had me keeping Whitworth low on my ballot ever since. Now they are sneaking up and I am not thrilled. Sure, I am not surprised George Fox took them to the wire, but that is a game Whitworth needed to make a statement with.

    17 – Purchase State (Up 3)

    18 – Mary Washington (Down 5)
    Frederick, the Eagles have landed! Mary Washington has lost three straight games in conference action and each of those losses I have a problem with. Salisbury: sure the Seagulls are tough, but if the Eagles are that good they win. Christopher Newport: a game that Mary Washington needed to use as a way to forget about Salisbury and stay in great position on top of the conference. Wesley: certainly not a surprise that the Wolverines won, but Mary Washington didn’t even look like a factor in the game. Maybe Mary Washington has peaked too early and if that is the case it is a shame because Mary Washington had been having one of the best seasons in program history. Oh, and they only feel five spots because I couldn’t imagine teams behind them ahead of them.

    19 – Albertus Magnus (Up 3)

    20 – Ohio Wesleyan (Down 3)
    I will admit, along with Mary Washington, I may have had the Battling Bishops up too high. Just the single loss to Wabash may not have resulted in dropping three spots, but Ohio Wesleyan is now 2-2 in the last four and if you look at their overtime win, it was to 5-18 Alleghany. Maybe the NCAC race was too good to be true.

    21 – Centre (Down 2)

    22 – Rose-Hulman (Unranked)
    Believe it or not, the Engineers have won 16 of their last 17 games and seem to be playing the best basketball when it counts the most. They also have a potential All-American in Julian Strickland leading the way with more than 25 points a game and leading in almost every other category as well. Rose-Hulman had a disappointing finish to last season, but this is an experienced squad who may be a dark horse depending on the set-up in the NCAA tournament.

    23 – Staten Island (Up 2)

    24 – Scranton (Unranked)
    Against my better judgment, I placed the Royals into my ballot. I know they have only lost three games this season and their SOS is surprisingly high, but if there is one conference I know very, very well… it is the Landmark and nothing impresses me about this conference this season. Juniata has disappointed, Catholic has not been as good as expected, and the rest of the conference is playing at about an “ok” level. Certainly there is more parity this season in the conference, but that doesn’t mean the teams are good. Welcome to my Top 25 Royals, just don’t let me regret the decision (I am already regretting being a Top 25 voter this season).

    25 – Richard Stockton (Unranked)
    WHAT AM I DOING?! I am getting desperate, I think, to find teams that seem to fit in the Top 25. I have been watching the Ospreys for a while, but just have not been impressed with their resume, the NJAC, or anything else for that matter. However, they have won 20 games and are now at least tied for the top of the conference. I just have a feeling I am grasping at straws and happen to grab Richard Stockton’s from the other fifteen potential candidates.

    Dropped Out:

    Messiah (Previously 21)
    Considering who I put into my Top 25, maybe pulling the Falcons out was too rash. However, they lost their second game to Stevenson (this time at home) and now all of their losses are conference losses. Messiah has had the chance several times this year to put their stamp on the conference, but can’t seem to put teams away and may have more match-up problems than I realized when watching them last month. Time will tell if this was a rash decision.

    Bowdoin (Previously 23)
    I really like how the Polar Bears have played this season, but the loss to Tufts coupled with the fact it was their second loss in three games makes me concerned the Polar Bears are on thin ice. Could they have peaked too early? They can prove myself and others wrong or right by how they perform in the NESCAC tournament which starts this weekend.

    Dubuque (Previously 24)
    I should have seen this coming. The only other time I placed Dubuque in my Top 25, they promptly lost. This time they lost both games (Loras and Central) and now probably won’t make the NCAA tournament unless they win their conference. I wanted to route for the underdog here, but they are making it hard to believe they can meet the challenge.

    Other ballots:
    Week 10
    Week 9
    Week 8
    Week 7
    Week 6
    Week 5
    Week 3
    Week 1