Author Archives: Dave McHugh

Strength of Schedule calculations changed

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Editors Note: Adjustments made to this blog to account for slight changes in the women’s SOS calculations as well.

2013 NCAA Basketball ChampionshipFor many of our mathematicians and number crunchers on the D3boards have been struggling with one thing since the Regional Rankings came out: they couldn’t get the SOS numbers the NCAA released to jive with their calculations. After all, there isn’t anything overly complicated with the calculations. The basics are this: a team’s Opponent’s Winning Percentage (OWP) x 2/3 + the Opponent’s Opponent’s Winning Percentage (OOWP) x 1/3. Another key is the fact that a multiplier of 1.25 is used for road games, 1.0 for neutral games, and 0.75 for home games in the OWP and OOWP for the men’s side of things.

For the mathematicians and the number crunchers, they break out their Excel sheets, paper, pencil and calculator, or whatever they use and they plug in the results for all Division III games into that and they come out with the overall SOS. However as I mentioned, they couldn’t figure out why their numbers weren’t adding up this past week.

Well, it turns out that is because the NCAA changed one simple thing in how they crunch the numbers and, well, forgot to tell everyone. (When reading through the 2013 Division III men’s pre-championship handbook it appears the change has not been rewritten in this material – but that is for others to figure out.)

The decision was made by the Championships Committee back in September and was apparently made because the original SOS calculations was coming up with some screwy numbers, especially in Division II where some provisional members were not playing a majority of their games in the division and that resulted in smaller win/loss numbers and thus, maybe, some inflated win-loss percentages. The previous means of calculating the SOS was apparently then causing what was perceived as inflated or deflated SOS’s.

To explain the change, let’s start with how they originally did the math for a men’s team. Here is Team A’s schedule over eleven games:

Opponent W L WP Mult. Average
Team B 9 1 .900 1.25 1.125
Team C 9 3 .750 1.25 0.938
Team D 5 2 .714 1.25 0.893
Team E 7 4 .636 1.00 0.636
Team F 6 4 .600 1.25 0.750
Team G 6 4 .600 0.75 0.450
Team H 6 4 .600 1.25 0.750
Team I 4 5 .444 0.75 0.333
Team J 4 6 .400 1.00 0.400
Team K 4 8 .333 1.00 0.333
Team L 1 7 .125 1.25 0.156
        Total: 6.764
        SOS (total/games): .6149

However, here is the change. They are now calculating based on each raw number, not the overall percentage. So here is Team A’s exact same schedule with this raw number calculation instead:

Opponent W L Mult. Raw Ws Raw Ls
Team B 9 1 1.25 11.25 1.25
Team C 9 3 1.25 11.25 3.75
Team D 5 2 1.25 6.25 2.50
Team E 7 4 1.00 7.00 4.00
Team F 6 4 1.25 7.50 5.00
Team G 6 4 0.75 4.50 3.00
Team H 6 4 1.25 7.50 5.00
Team I 4 5 0.75 3.00 3.75
Team J 4 6 1.00 4.00 6.00
Team K 4 8 1.00 4.00 8.00
Team L 1 7 1.25 1.25 8.75
      Total: 67.50 51.00
      SOS (WP): .5696

Certainly the difference between .6149 and .5696 looks large (.05!), but this is just 11 games and obviously by this point in the season we are looking at give or take 20-plus games on a team’s schedule, so the amount of data is greater and the numbers are probably a bit closer. Of course the biggest difference will come for teams that play teams with less regional results than others who maybe play all of their games in region.

Now for the women, they do not use the multiplier the men do, but if we are talking about adding just the numbers and not averaging the averages… there is a slight change. Below is a table for Team A’s opponents:

Opponent W L WP
Team B 9 1 .900
Team C 9 3 .750
Team D 5 2 .714
Team E 7 4 .636
Team F 6 4 .600
Team G 6 4 .600
Team H 6 4 .600
Team I 4 5 .444
Team J 4 6 .400
Team K 4 8 .333
Team L 1 7 .143
 Totals:  61 48
 SOS:  .560 .556

The .560 would be the new SOS… the .556 would have been the old SOS number. Yes, the number is ever so slightly different especially compared to the men, but it is an adjustment.

This doesn’t look initially like it will have a large or dramatic impact on Division III. I am sure our mathematician friends can say more about this, but it appears the NCAA is breaking down the numbers in more detail to get more accurate information than in the old system.

I hope that helps, but I will let our math friends be the ones who can break this down further on the merits of the decision.

Dave’s Top 25 ballot: Week 10

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Sorry for the tardiness on this, but celebrating the Baltimore Ravens Super Bowl title got me a little out of sync this week and then the computer I have my blog written on decided to quit working when I went to post this on Wednesday morning. Better late than never, I guess.

Once again, I had to do some real analyzing after not only the number one team lost, but when several other teams on my previous ballot took losses. (And as you will notice, I will already be changing my number one team next week.)

The one thing I have noticed and even discussed with other voters, there may be 15 or 20 teams everyone feels comfortable with, but those last five or ten spots are turning into a cluster(fill in the blank). For the most part, it seems like no one wants to step up and grab their position in the polls or in their conferences. As a result, I think voting this season may be getting harder in some ways than usual years when you really have a sense of who the best teams in the country are.

1 – Whitworth – Up 1 spot
I really debated about this. The Pirates have certainly been on a tear winning every one of their games except the season opener against St. Thomas, but besides Whitman their conference schedule has been somewhat weak. They already had to use extra time to get past a pretty decent Whitman squad, but they have also been dominating teams for the most part. I am sure I will be changing this pick sooner than I would like (and now after the fact this is indeed true).

2 – St. Thomas – Up 1 spot
I seriously considered putting the Tommies back into the number one place after they clearly rebounded from their lone loss pretty well. However, I had decided that St. Thomas’ loss to Concordia-Moorehead was worse than Whitworth’s loss to St. Thomas in game number one, so I didn’t feel comfortable changing that mentality a week later.

3 – WPI – Up 1 spot
Being the Engineers are undefeated and had a nice victory of Springfield this past week, I could have easily decided to move WPI all the way to #1. However, I am still considering who they have played… or not played. WPI is clearly having a better season than anyone could have expected, but I may need to see a little more before I think #1 is the right place for WPI.

4 – Rochester – Down 3 spots
I expected the Yellowjackets to get through the weekend unscathed, though maybe bruised, as my number one team. Of course if they had lost to Brandeis, I wouldn’t have been shocked. But to lose to an NYU team that I clearly had overrated earlier this year was not what I would have expected. Rochester did rally to get through the weekend 1 and 1, but they lost the wrong game. Considering it was their first loss of the season, on the road, and many teams below also lost, Rochester didn’t fall as much as I thought about moving them.

5 – Middlebury – Up 1 spot

6 – Catholic – Up 1 spot

7 – Hampden-Sydney – Up 2 spots

8 – Illinois Wesleyan – Up 6 spots
I was already starting to buy into the Titans, but when you beat Augustana (on the road) and Wheaton (at home) to sweep the season series from those two and remain three games ahead of North Central, I was ready to buy in further. Can the Titans get through the entire CCIW unscathed? Maybe, but the conference is too good in general for that to possibly happen. So I will continue to move IWU up the board, but won’t jump them into my top five until they get through the conference unscathed.

9 – Ramapo – Up 1 spot

10 – Amherst – Up 3 spots
The Lord Jeffs had a very good week beating Rhode Island and two conference opponents, albeit at home. As a result, their win over Williams now becomes a bigger factor, especially since it was a blow out, so I moved them ahead of the Ephs. However, Amherst didn’t have the strongest out-of-conference schedule and lost two games as well, so I think this could be my ceiling unless they beat Williams on the road in the same manner.

11 – Williams – Down 3 spots
I did move the Ephs down, but it had more to do with teams I moved ahead of them than the week they had. Granted they won two games on the road in the conference, but they were both close games against Bowdoin (12-9) and Colby (6-15). I know it isn’t the easiest thing to travel in the NESCAC especially from northwestern Massachusetts to anywhere in Maine (there is no such thing as a straight drive from Point A to Point B in that scenario), but if the Ephs are that good they should handle that scenario a bit better.

12 – UW-Stevens Point – Down 7 spots
It wasn’t like the Pointers had it easy this week: they played on the road against Platteville and La Crosse who are both having solid seasons. What surprised me was the fact the Pointers were held to just 46 points against Platteville and then couldn’t recover a few days later against La Crosse and only scored 62. That is just the kind of week that can derail a team and makes a voter nervous. I am not sold on just how good the WIAC is this season maybe because the top of the conference isn’t as good as usual while the middle of the conference is just as tough as always.

13 – St. Mary’s (Md.) – Up 2 spots

14 – Calvin – Up 2 spots

15 – North Central (Ill.) – Up 2 spots

16 – Christopher Newport – Down 5 spots
I was confident the Captains were pretty good this year, but when you lose to a .500 team like Greensboro at home, I take pause. I still think CNU is a solid team, but I may have had them too high in my poll. (And since I voted they lost to Virginia Wesleyan at home and it wasn’t close.)

17 – Wooster – Down 5 spots
The win over Denison at home was destruction; the loss on the road against Wabash was… well… embarrassing. I am not sure if the Scots were looking too far ahead to their game against Ohio Wesleyan or not, but this is the time of year where a team needs to put its foot down and not stub its toe.

18 – Rhode Island – unchanged

19 – Wheaton (Ill.) – unchanged

20 – Rose-Hulman – Up 3 spots
The Engineers put their foot down on the HCAC. With a very important game against underachieving Transylvania who beat them at home earlier in the year… they won on the road. Rose-Hulman now has a two game lead on the conference forcing everyone to go through Terre Haute, Indiana if they want to automatically pack their bags for the NCAA tournament.

21 – Cortland State – Up 3 spots

22 – UW-Whitewater – unranked
As I mentioned earlier, I am not sold on the top of the WIAC. I have also not been sold on the Warhawks a lot this season; they simply lost too much from last year’s national champions. But they keep winning and are now just a game back of UW-Stevens Point and may be finding their stride… for now.

23 – MIT – unranked
For the engineers, I mean beavers, no I mean Engineers (plenty of them in my Top 25), they still don’t have Jamie Karraker or Noel Hollingsworth back and may never get them back, but they are still winning. There are three seniors in double-figures including Mitchell Kates and Will Tashman who are scoring 15+ points a game and some of the underclassmen are stepping up. Only one of their four losses is a bad one (Salem State) and they have won five straight. Maybe MIT has found a way to win this season despite the challenges they have faced.

24 – Wesley – Down 4 spots
I knew that trying to sweep St. Mary’s, especially with the second game being on the road, would be a tall task. So, I really wasn’t going to eliminate them from my ballot and they only moved this far down because I was moving other teams in that I think might still be better despite the fact the Wolverines have still won 12 of the last 13 (as of my voting).

25 – SUNY-Old Westbury – unranked
In a constant search for who are the best 25 teams, I am taking another stab at a team that maybe isn’t getting enough attention. I don’t have the space to explain the season the Panthers have had simply from Superstorm Sandy and the aftermath. But consider that Old Westbury played their first 13 games of the season on the road, had to travel by van to every practice for the first several months at a gym off campus, and they didn’t even have their own locker rooms during that time. Still, the Panthers are undefeated in their conference and while games have been close recently it is probably because the Panthers aren’t used to playing in their own gym!

Dropped out this week:

DeSales – 21st last week
I will be the first to admit, I made a mistake here. Shortly after I placed DeSales in my ballot and stated they were one team flying lowest on the radar, they lost two games in conference including a pivotal game with Delaware Valley before falling asleep against Misericordia.

Transylvania – 22nd last week
The Pioneers did it to me again. I bought in and put them back in my Top 25 only to see them lose to Rose-Hulman, at home no less. I just can’t figure out the Pioneers who didn’t lose any of their starting offense from last year’s squad, but clearly lost something from the seniors who left even if it wasn’t on the court.

Alvernia – 25th last week
You can almost copy my comments about DeSales into this section: they lost a pivotal game against conference and Reading, PA rival Albright. They didn’t lose two games, but when you are on the very bottom of the ballot, any slip can cost you.

Dave’s Top 25 ballot: Week 9

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Whitworth
Whitworth has been battling its way through the Northwest Conference after an opening-game home loss to St. Thomas.
Photo by Jeff Halstead, d3photography.com

Another week in Division III basketball filled with upsets, questions and not many answers. I think I am starting to really feel comfortable with the top 15 teams in the country, maybe even 20, but after that it is a free-for-all. I decided to take a closer look at some teams closer to home this week and thanks to a trip to Oswego, N.Y. I was able to evaluate in person some teams I was considering. That along with some interesting results this past week allowed me to move some teams around – or not. I am really looking forward to next week (or the following, to be honest) when regional rankings come out and I can see real SOS numbers besides the flawed Massey numbers, though the efforts by some on the post-up boards has been invaluable.

1 – Rochester – Up 1 spot
The Yellowjackets might have had a scare against Brandeis, but they came away with a solid victory behind probably the best player in the country. They have another tough test this weekend on the road, but Rochester has certainly earned my No. 1 vote.

2 – Whitworth – Up 1 spot
I debated whether I would move Whitworth up or not. They continue to win with their only loss being the first game of the season against St. Thomas (albeit at home), but their conference doesn’t seem to be giving them too much of a challenge so I continue to struggle with whether this ranking is too high.

3 – St. Thomas – Down 2 spots
The narrow lost to Concordia-Moorhead certainly doesn’t look good, but considering how the Tommies responded against St. Mary’s (Minn.) and Hamline, I decided to stay with the mindset that St. Thomas is one of the best teams in the country. They did beat Whitworth this season which could be a good enough reason to keep them ahead of Whitworth, however that game was the first of the season and Whitworth’s loss to St. Thomas is better than St. Thomas’ loss to Concordia-Moorhead.

4 – WPI – unchanged

5 – UW-Stevens Point – UP 1 spot

6 – Middlebury – Down 1 spot
The loss to Williams may not have been a surprise, but the Panthers were in position to win that game. Considering how many teams in the top ten lost this week, Middlebury ended up not moving that much though I debated strongly about moving them behind Catholic. However, it came down to the fact that Middlebury now only has one loss and it was against one of the top teams in the NESCAC.

7 – Catholic – Up 2 spots
The Cardinals continue to play good basketball (including pasting my alma mater this past week). I think Catholic has taken advantage of the new Landmark schedule which has allowed them to avoid late season slides they had become known for. The core group is playing terrific basketball, but they have to stay focused on each team in the conference.

8 – Williams – unchanged
Yes, the Ephs did lose to Amherst, but they beat Middlebury. If they had beaten both, I probably would have swapped spots with Middlebury. I can’t knock the Ephs for the loss to Amherst in a major rivalry game, even if the score was not close. That being said, I can’t overly reward them for beating Middlebury since they lost to Amherst. I could go on circles on this for hours and never get the right answer – so my decision was to leave them where they were and not punish or reward them.

9 – Hampden-Sydney – Up 3 spots
I continue to say the Tigers are an underrated team in a very tough ODAC. With wins over Randolph-Macon, Eastern Mennonite, Randolph, and Guilford in their last four, Hampden-Sydney has moved into first place in the ODAC and stated clearly they are the team to beat. They also may have one of the other top players in the nation clearly driving this team.

10 – Ramapo – unchanged

11 – Christopher Newport – unchanged

12 –Wooster – Up 1 spot

13 – Amherst – Up 2 spots
The Lord Jeffs got a big win over Williams in non-conference action and then followed that up with a shellacking of Trinity (Conn.). I would have moved the Lord Jeffs up higher, but there weren’t a lot of teams I would have below them. Yes, you could argue they should move ahead of Williams, but with two-losses to the Ephs one I am comfortable with this position with a rematch looming in a couple of weeks on the road.

14 – Illinois Wesleyan – Up 4 spots
The Titans are certainly the class of the CCIW with a three game lead and six games to play. The win over North Central and then not overlooking Elmhurst clearly shows IWU is taking care of business. I am willing to move them higher, but with Augustana and Wheaton on the horizon, I didn’t want to get too hyped on this squad.

15 – St. Mary’s – Up 1 spot

16 – Calvin – Up 1 spot

17 – North Central (Ill.) – Down 10 spots
I wasn’t going to knock the Cardinals too much for two tough losses on the road this past week (Illinois Wesleyan and Wheaton), but when you learn their top three players – maybe their only three weapons on offense – are injured or nursing some kind of ailment, you have to consider more than just the box score. Furthermore, Illinois Wesleyan is clearly the top team in the CCIW, so keeping the Cardinals ahead of them doesn’t make any sense.

18 – Rhode Island – Up 6 spots
This is a big move for a team that only beat Western and Eastern Connecticut teams this week, but there were a number of losses in this area of my ballot in the week, so the move was more “filling a spot” than it was by merit. The Anchormen host Amherst on Tuesday night in one of the biggest games in the Northeast this week, so we will see if they deserve to keep moving up.

19 – Wheaton (Ill.) – unranked
A win over North Central got me to move them back into my Top 25 – adding a third CCIW team to the ballot. I can’t easily move them ahead of North Central considering they have split the season, but the Thunder appear to be recovering from injuries and illnesses that ailed them a few weeks ago.

20 – Wesley – Up 3 spots

21 – DeSales – unranked
The Bulldogs may be the one team flying the lowest on the radar right now. DeSales has one loss after starting 1 and 2 and have a signature win over beat Catholic. They have a two-game lead in a slightly weak MAC Freedom, but are getting the job done. This might be a reach of a vote, but I am not the only voter considering the Bulldogs on my ballot.

22 – Transylvania – unranked
I have had the Pioneers on my short list for a long time, but nothing has enticed me to put them back into my Top 25. However, they have now won 11 of their last 12 games including to HCAC front-runner Rose-Hulman along with Wooster, Franklin & Marshall, and Thomas More. This week a rematch with Rose-Hulman at home will let me know if I am getting too excited or Transylvania has figured out what was wrong at the beginning of the season.

23 – Rose-Hulman – Up 2 spots

24 – Cortland State – unranked
The Red Dragons are a pretty good team. I saw them in action against Oswego State this past weekend in what was a very good game. Cortland St. seems to have a lot of individuals who can take over but also come together nicely as a team. They also don’t panic when on the wrong end of runs or losing the lead. The Red Dragons may surprise come March – as long as they don’t trip up in a tough SUNYAC this season.

25 – Alvernia – unranked
I have been staring at the Crusaders for a long time and decided it was time to put them on my ballot. They lead the MAC Commonwealth who many thought would have Lycoming or Albright battling it out for first place. But Alvernia has a one-game lead against their city-rival Albright (three over Lycoming) and have a chance to sweep the season series with Albright on Wednesday night.

Dropped out this week:
Stevens – 14th last week
The loss to Ithaca was one thing, but losing to Hartwick earlier in the week just didn’t look good to me. To make it worse, Ithaca crushed Stevens in a game the Ducks had to win. I will keep Stevens on my radar, but this week showed that maybe they are not near the top of the East Region like I had previously thought.

Albertus Magnus – 19th last week
It may have been the Falcons’ first loss in Division III this season, but it also showed that maybe Albertus Magnus is not as good as many thought. I hadn’t been moving them up very much despite blowout wins because those wins were coming in a pretty weak conference. The Falcons have no signature wins and are now just a game ahead of an Anna Maria team they decimated in the conference title game last season. I doubt the Falcons will return to my ballot unless they make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament.

Brandeis – 20th last week
I expected the loss to Rochester and it was close, but to have lost two games this weekend – the other being to Emory – didn’t give me a good enough reasons to keep them in the last five spots on my ballot. The Judges get a chance to make a statement this coming weekend when they play Emory and Rochester again, this time at home.

Guilford – 21st last week
Whether it is injuries or battling in a very difficult ODAC this season, Guilford is in a tailspin right now. They have lost three in a row including to Washington & Lee and are now three games back of the lead in the conference. They have a chance to right the ship with Roanoke and Shenandoah this week before two tough games next week.

Virginia Wesleyan – 22nd last week
The Marlins just can’t get the job done when they need to. After losing four in a row earlier in the season I took a long look at Virginia Wesleyan and didn’t like what I saw. I thought last week they had finally turned things around before then losing to Washington and Lee on the road. They have a really interesting couple of weeks ahead, but I am not going to jump back on the Marlins bandwagon for a little while.

Dave’s Top 25 ballot: Week 8

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DiBartolomeo
With Monday’s loss by St. Thomas, is the University of Rochester next in line to be No. 1?
Rochester athletics photo

This week, voting in the Top 25 was relatively easy especially when compared to last week’s overhaul that proved more challenging – though enlightening – than expected. You aren’t going to see a lot of changes this week. In fact, the first 12 positions in my poll didn’t move. I did have to deal with questions about close wins and surprising losses, but it was a handful of teams this time, not the entire ballot. So, here we go:

1 – St. Thomas – unchanged

2 – Rochester – unchanged

3 – Whitworth – unchanged

4 – WPI – unchanged

5 – Middlebury – unchanged

6 – UW-Stevens Point – unchanged

7 – North Central (Ill.) – unchanged

8 – Williams – unchanged

9 – Catholic – unchanged

10 – Ramapo – unchanged

11 – Christopher Newport – unchanged

12 – Hampden-Sydney – unchanged

13 – Wooster – UP 5 spots
Very good week for the Scots who put their foot down on the NCAC. A win over Ohio Wesleyan on the road helped give the Battling Bishops their second straight loss and give Wooster a two-game lead in the conference.

14 – Stevens – unchanged

15 – Amherst – unchanged
The Lord Jeffs did win three games this week, which would normally have me move them up. But first, there isn’t much room for moving upward and second, they only faced one team with a winning record and all three of the games were at home.

16 – St. Mary’s (Md.) – UP 1 spot

17 – Calvin – UP 4 spots
When you lay the wood to your rival Hope in one of the biggest rivalries in college sports, people take notice. Hope is clearly having a tough season (which featured another loss this week to Olivet), but the fact Calvin manhandled them in a game where a winless team would probably still make it interesting is rather telling. Calvin now has a two-game lead in the MIAA.

18 – Illinois Wesleyan – UP 4 spots
The Titans didn’t exactly beat anyone stellar in conference play this week, but they won both games on the road in a conference that has already shown that the top teams can lose to those struggling below .500. Big test coming up… North Central at home.

19 – Albertus Magnus – unchanged

20 – Brandeis – unranked
The Judges made a statement this weekend beating Chicago and then Wash U on the road. Brandeis has only two losses at the hands of Rhode Island College in the first game of the season and Amherst at the beginning of December. Seven straight wins has them tied on top of the UAA with Rochester who they will face at home on Sunday.

21 – Guilford – DOWN 5 spots
The ODAC is probably tougher this year than in years past with nine of the twelve teams with winning records and eight teams within four games of the top of the conference. Guilford got a win over Randolph midweek, which kept them from falling out of the poll with their loss to Washington & Lee, albeit on the road. And the road doesn’t get easier. They have Lynchburg at home and then on the road at Hampden-Sydney this week. Let’s see if they stay on my ballot.

22 – Virginia Wesleyan – unranked
The Marlins do lead the ODAC with a perfect 8-0 and have won five straight. However, the four-game slide at the end of December and barely able to get by Roanoke (who seemed to have the game in hand) are signs that maybe this Marlin team is lucky to be 8-0 in the conference. They are on top of the ODAC recordwise, but I am not convinced they have figured things out.

23 – Wesley – unranked
Really can’t keep the Wolverines off my ballot any more. 10 straight wins including St. Mary’s and Salisbury in the last two show this team is playing very good basketball right now. Wesley has wins over Eastern Mennonite and Virginia Wesleyan as well this season and nearly got past Christopher Newport back in November (lost in triple overtime). The Wolverines have a rematch with St. Mary’s on Saturday that will determine who is in control of the CAC heading into February.

24 – Rhode Island – unchanged
The Anchormen didn’t exactly impress this week. In fact I thought about dropping them when considering they beat Mass-Dartmouth and Plymouth State – a combined 5-26 – by a total of nine points. The games were on the road and New England is probably distracted with the Patriots this week, so I gave them the benefit of the doubt. A battle for the top of the LEC looms Saturday with Eastern Connecticut on the road – if Rhode Island doesn’t forget they play Western Connecticut first.

25 – Rose-Hulman – unchanged
The Engineers didn’t do anything to impress me this week, either. They beat Franklin (who is 11-6 and has a win over Illinois Wesleyan on their resume) easily, but then struggled at home against 7-10 Bluffton. So, I thought about moving Rose-Hulman off my ballot until I remembered they still only have two losses. Who would I have replaced them with? Transylvania who beat Rose-Hulman last week – so the reason would have been good.

Dropped out this week:

Ohio Wesleyan – 13th last week
Yeah, this might be harsh, but I wouldn’t have removed them from my Top 25 with just their loss to Wooster. Their lost to Hiram by 13 on the road midweek on the other hand made the loss to Wooster at home just the cherry on top. I like the Battling Bishops but they shoot horribly from the free-throw line and they have games like Hiram, Allegheny and others that have me shaking my head.

Washington Univ. – 20th last week
A trusted friend in the Midwest Region things the Bears are a Top 25 team and I agree with him, until they lose at home to Brandeis. Sure, on paper that shouldn’t be a surprised since Brandeis is clearly playing well. Except it was at home where Wash U. hadn’t lost all season and this is the Bears third loss in the UAA. Furthermore, Wash U is now 2-2 in the last four games. I watched the game against Brandeis and nothing impressed me. Something doesn’t seem to be working right now in St. Louis. Here is hoping they turn it around fast before they lose any chance of making the NCAA tournament.

Dave’s Top 25 ballot – Week 7

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Sam Longwell
Sam Longwell and his WPI teammates moved up on Dave McHugh’s ballot.
WPI athletics photo

After the week of carnage in the men’s Top 25, I decided to completely overhaul my ballot. Last week I went through a gut check; this week I started over. I looked at teams I already had on my ballot, teams I was considering, teams that was provided to voters, and teams that caught my attention as I went through each region. The result was initially about 50 programs on the table. Then after a quickly cutting based on a quick look at the teams on the table, I was left with 41 schools to consider for this week’s ballot.

From those 41 I started anew going through each team’s results up to this point and painstakingly looking at their wins, losses, travel, what other factors could have been at play and their overall statistics. As a result, you will see a lot of changes on my ballot compared to last week including, maybe, some surprising moves.

No.1 St. Thomas – Unchanged
The Tommies may have actually solidified their No.1 ranking in my ballot through the overhaul.

No.2 – Rochester – Unchanged
The Yellowjackets certainly proved they are a very good team this past weekend with not only the win over Chicago, but a very strong win over Wash U. They are shooting very well this season and winning by an average of 18.6 points a game.

No.3 – Whitworth – UP 2 spots
I am a little nervous about the Pirates this high after the week they just had. They barely survived against Whitman (who lost two games this week) and George Fox (who then beat Whitman). And some of their stats have me worried like only outrebounding their opponents by 2.4 a game. However, they have four players averaging double-figures this season and continue to win.

No.4 – WPI – UP 4 spots
The Engineers are still undefeated though they didn’t really get tested this past week. They do have the most wins in Division III including a victory over Rhode Island a month ago. However, I have the same concerns with WPI as I do with Whitworth.

No.5 – Middlebury – DOWN 2 spots
The Panthers are still undefeated, but they are barely getting it done. Yet another weekend in the NESCAC sees Middlebury barely beat an opponent this time at home. My confidence is shaky despite the fact they are beating opponents on average by more than 15 points and shooting 51.9% a game with four players in double-figures.

No.6 – UW-Stevens Point – UP 12 spots
The Points big move up my ballot is based on not only the fact they beat Stout and La Crosse this week by an average of 12 points, but also the fact I took a longer look at all teams. Stevens Point has five players averaging more than 10 points a game while they only turn the ball over about ten times a contest. I do have questions on whether the Pointers can get through the conference unscathed, but they have a two game lead in mid-January so they are pretty well positioned.

No.7 – North Central (Ill.) – DOWN 3 spots
The Cardinals were bound to trip up in the CCIW, but I didn’t see it happening to a struggling Carthage team. They did right the ship against Augustana, but I said last week I wasn’t confident with the Cardinals. Now North Central has some impressive wins and are not only beating their opponents by more than 13 points a game, but they are holding opponents to an average of 56 points a game. However, I doubt the Carthage game will be their only bump in the road the rest of the season.

No.8 – Williams – UP 12 spots
I have not been giving the Ephs enough credit. When I took a longer look at their season, their lone loss to Stevens became less of a concern for a team that is outscoring their opponents by 19.1 points a game and shooting a very impressive 52.2% from the floor. With four players in double-figures leading a team that has swept Wesleyan and beaten Springfield and looked better against common opponents than Middlebury, it was high time I bought into the Ephs.

No.9 – Catholic – DOWN 3 spots
I didn’t think the Cardinals could get through the Landmark unscathed (especially since they still have to play Scranton twice), but the loss to Juniata on the road gave me pause. Catholic teams of the past would have taken a loss like that and turned into a losing streak. Maybe the new Landmark schedule allowed CUA to stop the bleeding by Saturday or they are showing they can handle a few bumps and bounce back.

No.10 – Ramapo – DOWN 3 spots
The Roadrunners got tripped up by a single point by William Patterson this week which certainly had me shaking my head. However, Ramapo has five guys averaging between 11 and 16 points a game while outrebounding their opponents by nearly seven boards a game. Ramapo seems to be playing well despite concerns their top player Will Sanborn takes nights off.

No.11 – Christopher Newport – DOWN 1 spot
The loss in double-overtime to North Carolina Wesleyan was both expected and unexpected. Sure, NC Wesleyan would be gunning for Christopher Newport and the game was on the road. However, it showed the Captains may have to stay focused for every game in their conference this season. Now, they have three players averaging more than 15 points a game and their two losses have been by eight total points. So, I feel comfortable… for now.

No.12 – Hampden-Sydney – UP 2 spots
I was actually more impressed the more I looked at Hampden-Sydney this week. They are outscoring their opponents by nearly 23 points a game while shooting 51.1% from the floor and getting seven more boards a game. They are even dishing nearly 20 assists a game! The Tigers just have to stay focused in what will be a tough run of Randolph-Macon, Eastern Mennonite, Randolph, Guilford and Lynchburg in the next five games.

No.13 – Ohio Wesleyan – UP 2 spots
The Battling Bishops are playing very solid basketball right now. However, they have Wooster this coming Saturday at home. That will give all of us a chance to grade both teams and see who is in control of the NCAC.

No.14 – Stevens – Unranked
I said when I dropped Stevens out of my poll last week it was not because of Stevens, but when I took a closer look I couldn’t believe I had made the move to begin with. Stevens has beaten Williams and only lost to NYU (by 6). They have three players averaging more than 14 points a game and are outscoring their opponents by than 10 points a game.

No.15 – Amherst – UP 9 spots
I had been holding the Lord Jeffs kind of low this season, so it was a good thing I took a longer look this week. They have six players scoring 10 points or more while outscoring their opponents by 15.6 a game. Sure, the loss to Babson at home still raises concerns, but the Lord Jeffs appear to be better than I was giving them credit for.

No.16 – Guilford – UP 6 spots
The Quakers continue to roll right now having won eight straight games. They are playing pretty good basketball in all aspects and have some very good wins on their resume this season.

No.17 – St. Mary’s (Md.) – DOWN 8 spots
It is a big drop for the Seahawks who beat Franklin and Marshall, but they lost to Wesley this past week as well. I think Wesley is a good team, but now St. Mary’s has lost two games that weren’t even close (13 to Catholic and 14 to Wesley) and they all but blew a huge halftime lead on the Diplomats. They are also being outrebounded by 3.1 a game which could be a big problem the rest of the season. I need to take pause and see how St. Mary’s responds to Saturday’s loss before I consider moving them back into the top 15.

No.18 – Wooster – DOWN 2 spots
There isn’t anything the Scots did to slide this week, I just did some rearranging in the overhaul. They are dominating on the boards and are shooting well. However, they are turning the ball more than their opponents and they have a big test on Saturday against Ohio Wesleyan.

No.19 – Albertus Magnus – DOWN 2 spots
The Falcons are certainly having a very good season on paper, but they really haven’t played anyone while only outscoring their opponents (including Yale) by five points a game and also being outrebounded by more than five boards a game. Nothing else stands out to me as they work their way through a weak conference. I am leery this could be more smoke and mirrors than anything else.

No.20 – Washington (Mo.) – DOWN 8 spots
The Bears have me nervous. They have now lost three games this season all on the road. Granted, Rochester is proving to be a very good team, but Wash U. was barely able to get past Emory making me realize they seem to struggle away from their home court. They are dominating on the boards at an 13.6 average and they have six of the next eight at home, so I will be watching to see if the home court is truly their advantage.

No.21 – Calvin – Unranked
The Knights may not have an impressive schedule especially with a loss to Carthage and a very low scoring output against Wheaton, but they are outscoring opponents by more than 17 points a game, outrebounding by nearly 11, and shooting very well on average. I would think this week they should beat Hope who is struggling this season, but anything is possible in a rivalry game – so I will be watching.

No.22 – Illinois Wesleyan – Unranked
The Titans are getting the job done when they need to. Yes, the loss to Franklin is still quick to remind me they can overlook teams, but they are holding opponents to about 62 points a game while outrebounding them by over nine a game. The biggest concern is they are shooting just 65.3% from the free throw line though they have shot 81 more free shots than their opponents helping make up for the misses. A win over Augustana and dominating Carthage was good enough for me to move them back into my Top 25.

No.23 – Randolph – DOWN 3 spots
The loss to Virginia Wesleyan wasn’t unexpected. It was on the road and just a six point spread, so I am not going to knock the Wildcats too much for that. They are still outscoring opponents by nearly 15 points a game and have maybe one of the most underrated players in the country. If they can solve a weak rebounding game, they could be a team to watch out for in February or later.

No.24 – Rhode Island – Unranked
The Anchormen have given me fits this season. However, they seem to have left their two-game slide in the rear view mirror having won five straight. Not many challenges await them in the conference for a team that holding opponents to less than 60 points a game. They just need to remain focused on each game.

No.25 – Rose-Hulman – DOWN 4 spots
Their loss to Transylvania didn’t cost them that much since I think Transy is playing well (despite a loss to rival Hanover). It was only the Engineers second loss of the season, though it was at home. What impresses me the most is that they are holding opponents to 48.2 points per game and outscoring them by more than 15. That along with the fact that opponents are shooting just 26.6 from beyond the arc really makes me appreciate Rose-Hulman’s defense and defense is the key to winning as we all know.

Dropped out this week:
Franklin & Marshall – No.11 last week
I wasn’t really going to knock the Diplomats for the loss on the road at St. Mary’s, but when they couldn’t beat winless Washington College I knew I had to take a long look at F&M. To start the season, F&M played 5 of its first 7 and 8 of 12 at home. They now have three road losses including to a Shoremen team that they had beaten by 19 earlier in the season (granted, Chestertown tends to be a tough place for the road teams). Factor in the inconsistencies of Honorable Mention preseason All-American Hayk Gyokchyan and it has me thinking the Diplomats are overrated. And Centennial conference isn’t through with them yet. The Diplomats are in the middle of six of seven games on the road and opponents may not be that awestruck by F&M.

New York Univ. – No.13 last week
I realize that the Violets didn’t do anything for me to drop them out of my Top 25. They won three games last week including two conference games at home. I also realize that since I was their only voter last week that was the only points in the poll they were getting. Now, that being said… it gave me great pause to realize I was the only one voting for them and it wasn’t like I had them in the 20’s. Sure, they only have two losses on the season, but they got beat up by Brandeis over a week ago and didn’t exactly play the best game of the season against Carnegie Mellon. And their only significant win was to SUNY-Old Westbury in early December. I will keep my eyes on the Violets, but taking the time to reexamine my Top 25 cost them a spot.

UW-Whitewater – No.23 last week
I indicated last week that a loss this week would cost the Warhawks a spot in my poll and they ended up losing to 7-9 UW-Superior who had just gotten throttled by UW-Platteville earlier in the week. When looking at their stats, the Warhawks also didn’t impress me. They are playing a lot of close games and are not outrebounding their opponents. They are allowing teams to shoot nearly 40% from beyond the arc and are losing at the free throw line. Yes, the Warhawks are the defending champions, but they are showing just how much they lost from that team.

Wheaton – No.25 last week
I know they beat North Park and Millikin by an average of 22 points this week, but when I took a deeper look at things I just couldn’t hold them in my 25th spot. Sure, they have four guys averaging between 10 and 20 points a game and they are outscoring their opponents by 14 a game. But, they are tied for fourth in the CCIW with Augustana (whom they play this week) and if I can’t put Augustana in my poll, I am not sure I can justify Wheaton. I do like the Thunder as a team and if they can go on a run, they could be back in my poll soon.