Triple Take: Ranked and filed teams

Posted on October 29, 2010 by ryantipps

Dan Griffin has rushed for 1,016 yards and 13 scores from his quarterback position for Salisbury. Will Wesley be able to contain the Sea Gulls’ rushing attack?

A one-loss record isn’t always all it’s cracked up to be — at least in the eyes of the NCAA. We’ve seen this week what teams in that category matter most, thanks to the release of the NCAA’s Regional Rankings. And in the ATN Podcast, we’ve heard Pat Coleman and Keith McMillan break down the strength of schedule numbers for a lot of the pack that is hoping to swim in the Pool C waters.

Less than a month before the end of regular-season play, D3football.com has also been able to touch on which four teams the NCAA could build its four brackets around. We’re no longer living in a North/South/East/West mentality. With the shifting of Mount Union and some other changes in recent years, the NCAA has done a much improved job of picking the four top teams (according to their standards) and creating the regions around them.

As was stated in the Podcast, it’s amazing how different the playoff picture can wind up in just these last couple of weeks. Most teams have just three games left to make or break their season.

Pat, Keith and Ryan Tipps have a few things to look out for on Saturday:

Game of the Week.
Ryan’s take: No. 3 Wesley at Salisbury. These longtime foes will clash for the last time this year in conference play, and, like often, the drama is swirling. Wesley is riding an undefeated streak that includes a win over Delaware Valley as well as over Christopher Newport and Capital, the latter two of which lost some of their luster this season. Salisbury, in turn, has often steamrolled teams this year on the ground (500- and 600-yards rushing hasn’t been uncommon). But have the Gulls been tested? They’ve played just two teams all season that have a winning record, one of those matchups ending in a close loss to Hampden-Sydney. Salisbury needs to perform well on Saturday to show they’re a playoff-worthy team, especially in an environment that has been skeptical of two-loss Pool C teams. And for Wesley? An undefeated season, one notably built around their successful backup quarterback, would go far in seeding consideration.
Pat’s take: No. 14 Montclair State at Cortland State. For Cortland, the big challenges come late in the season, and the Red Dragons have already failed one of them, losing to Rowan. I don’t think it informs us much to compare their games against Rowan — Kenny Brock played quarterback for Rowan against Montclair (and was 7-for-28) while Tim Hagerty took over the starting job after that. Both have had some great defensive performances this season, however. So expect a high-scoring game. That’s how it works, right?
Keith’s take: Montclair State at Cortland State. I could have gone with the other Pool B clash, Norwich at SUNY-Maritime, for variety. And that is probably the third biggest game of the week. But while Wolverines-Gulls and Cadets-Privateers will impact the playoff fortunes of the teams involved, and maybe each other, the NJAC battle has far-reaching consequences. A Montclair State win keeps the Red Hawks on track to be the first East Region team to go unbeaten and earn a No. 1 seed in the playoffs since Wilkes in 2006. A loss opens the door to another team, either Mount Union or Wesley, likely being the center of the easternmost bracket. Plus, Red Hawks-Red Dragons is a matchup of silly-good defenses: Cortland is the national leader in scoring defense (6.43 points per game) and is fifth in yardage (210.86), while Montclair is fourth (8.14) and third (205.57).

Surprisingly close game.
Ryan’s take: Luther at No. 13 Wartburg. Once Wartburg beat Coe, the Knights were seen as having clear control of the IIAC. I agree with that notion. But Luther is not far behind at 4-3, and could put a kink in this conference race. Wartburg’s defense is stout, but Luther’s offense is balanced just enough that they should be able to move the ball. And perhaps most of all, Wartburg will showdown with Central a week from now and could be in jeopardy of getting caught looking ahead to that game.
Pat’s take: McMurry at No. 7 Hardin-Simmons. I certainly expect a lot of offense in this game. Is 62-45 close? McMurry hasn’t beaten Hardin-Simmons since HSU restarted football — and picture that, by the way, the first-year Cowboys beating the Indians back in the 1990’s.
Keith’s take: Birmingham-Southern at DePauw. Because the Panthers are in their fourth season in the transition from Division I, and are yet ineligible for the playoffs or the SCAC title, their 5-2 record has gone largely unrecognized nationally. They rush for 285 yards per game, with a low of 149 against Trinity, and 5.6 per carry. Across the white lines, DePauw may well relax after clinching a playoff spot and find itself in a familiar spot. The Tigers have pulled out wins of five points or fewer against Centre (4-3), Adrian (3-4) and Trinity (3-4), but it’s dangerous living on the edge.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset.
Ryan’s take: No. 24 Ursinus. Opponent Moravian is one of those teams that has flashes of greatness — but when things on the field start to snowball, they really snowball. The Greyhounds have improved in recent weeks, using a varied ground attack enhanced and complemented by Matt Johnson taking the reins under center. As quarterback, he has put up 788 passing yards in the past four games and will help his team become a real threat to the Bears’ perfect season.
Pat’s take: No. 3 Wesley. No disrespect intended, as always, but the rivalry aspect of this game plays large, plus Salisbury fighting for its playoff life. Salisbury has certainly been on a roll lately, at least, rushing for 420 or more yards in every game since opening day.
Keith’s take: No. 17 Wheaton. It’s not so much a slap at the Thunder, who we’ve already disrespected by including them in Pool C talk before actually losing a game. It’s more a recognition that the CCIW is a week-in, week-out test. Augustana has the nation’s toughest schedule (opponents are 46-19, or .707) by a shade over Ithaca, according to NCAA data. After playing Central and North Central, the teams that handed the 5-2 Vikings their losses, nothing about Wheaton should overwhelm Augustana.

They’ll be on your radar.
Ryan’s take: The first-year starting quarterbacks. Three of the top four most efficient passers in the country are in their first year as starters for their teams. Wittenberg’s Ben Zoeller, UW-Whitewater’s Matt Blanchard and Welsey’s Justin Sottilare are all leading teams that are gunning for playoff runs — and if they repeat last year’s performances, deep playoff runs. Each quarterback has a passer rating of at least 182, and it’s easy to forget how hard it is to lead a team in the spotlight. Witt is on a bye week, but UW-W and Wesley each have arguably their biggest games of the regular season this week. All eyes, including mine, will be on them.
Pat’s take: Chicago. Am I just projecting a Pool B blowup this week? Maybe, but Chicago has had a fine season to date, heading or its best season since 2000. A 17-point loss against comparable opponent Wabash was on the road, at least. Perhaps the magic of Stagg Field will give the Maroons a boost against Case Western Reserve.
Keith’s take: Otterbein. I’m curious, as Pat is, about the UAA. WNEC-Endicott interests me. But I’ll be looking for the Cardinals to show us something against Mount Union; specifically, if reports of the Purple Raiders’ demise are exaggerated. Mount Union has shut out three teams and held two others to single digits. They’ve given up only 7 points at home, but UW-Oshkosh (28) and Marietta (14) earned their totals as hosts. Otterbein is averaging more than 35 points per game.

What team in the NCAA regional rankings is going to make a statement this week?
Ryan’s take: Western New England. In a conference that has long been dominated by the likes of Curry and Plymouth State, the Golden Bears are coming off a week of taking down the second of those two foes. This week, they line up against Endicott, which has just one conference loss and isn’t out of the NEFC Boyd race. Western New England has a shot to improve its strength of schedule and further showcase a defense that has given up more than 10 points only once all season.
Pat’s take: Wartburg. Sorry — with all due respect to my Virginia colleague, I don’t see Luther making it close against Wartburg. Not many teams have been able to score on Wartburg and while I don’t see Luther getting enough to make it close. A big win isn’t going to change this regional ranking but it seems inevitable to me.
Keith’s take: Norwich. At No. 8 in the East Region playing No. 6, there’ll be an opportunity to move up.

Which Pool B contender will need the most help getting into the postseason after this week?
Ryan’s take: SUNY-Maritime. Because of the perceived strength of the ECFC, it’s easy for even the good teams from that conference to slip under the radar for a few weeks. But on Saturday will be the challenge for the top spot when one-loss Norwich takes on undefeated SUNY-Maritime. The winner has a good shot at getting a Pool B bid. However, if the Privateers lose, there will have to be a lot of shake-ups elsewhere (Case Western Reserve dropping a game, Norwich losing in the final two weeks, Wesley falling to Salisbury) for them to appear viable at the table. A loss to Norwich isn’t a bad thing, necessarily. The Cadets are regionally ranked and have some solid wins on their resume: notching itself as Western New England’s only loss or the year and beating St. Lawrence, which is now at the top of the Liberty League. Norwich should have the firmer handle on this game, which means SUNY-Maritime could need to be paying attention to the wider D-III landscape.
Pat’s take: Salisbury. Which is unfortunate, because the Sea Gulls are better than either of the ECFC teams. Even with a win, Salisbury isn’t a lock for the playoffs, but with a loss, Salisbury is definitely hoping for some of those things Ryan mentioned above.
Keith’s take: Salisbury. Taking a second loss could devastate the Gulls in their last non-AQ run before moving to the Empire 8. Their playoff hopes would be virtually none this season with another defeat.

What game slipped under the radar in the East?
Ryan’s take: Middlebury at Trinity (Conn.). Both NESCAC teams have been putting up solid points this year: The Panthers average 24 per game while the Bantams bring home almost 31 a game. Middlebury benefits from its star signal-caller, Donald McKillop, who throws for 331 yards a game. Trinity, on the other hand, creates discord for defenders on the ground, tallying 240 rushing yards a game while holding opponents to just 41 such yards per outing. Expect high scoring and a lot of yardage in Hartford, Conn.
Pat’s take: Widener at Lebanon Valley. Widener’s first-year coach, Isaac Collins, can’t be hearing good things from higher-ups about this season. The Pride have (has?) played a tough schedule but lost all three of those games, 37-0, 31-7 and 31-7. That’s one thing, but last week’s home loss to Albright can’t inspire confidence. Lebanon Valley can’t be very happy with its season either, coming off a near-playoff trip in 2009, but Jim Monos has been through thick and thin with the Flying Dutchmen.
Keith’s take: Union at RPI. Can you believe we got this deep into Triple Take without mentioning The Shoes rivalry? Hard to know what to make of the two teams being down along with the rest of the Liberty League, but I think it enhances the game. There are no second chances this season. No playoffs to alleviate the sting for the loser. Beating a rival might be all either side has to play for.

ATN podcast: Re-drawing the Top 25

Posted on October 18, 2010 by d3football

UW-Whitewater, Aaron Rusch and Jason Ford Re-evaluating the Top 25, or, also known as, how did Central drop nine spots? Coe’s loss to Wartburg had an effect beyond those two teams, while losses by Cortland State, Randolph-Macon and Alfred certainly helped the reshuffling effort.

Why wasn’t Wartburg ranked to begin with? How did they end up at No. 13? Who else is underranked? That and more in this week’s Around the Nation podcast. Plus, Pat Coleman got to see UW-Whitewater play in person next week and gives his take on what he saw, plus gets coach Lance Leipold’s evaluation of his team at the midway point of the Whitewater season (that is, if the Warhawks are planning to play 15 games once again).

Click the play button below to listen.

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Triple Take: Off and running

Posted on September 2, 2010 by ryantipps

When game time is so near you can almost smell the food from the concession stand and hear the cheerleaders’ voices, and all you want to know is who’s supposed to win, Triple Take arrives.

Let us introduce you to our weekly forecast, a Friday morning staple on the Daily Dose. We bring it to you a day early to celebrate the Sept. 2 kickoffs. In Triple Take, three panelists think aloud, asking some key questions and providing some insight into the national landscape. The D3football.com Top 25 is certainly a factor, but we like to go beyond football’s upper echelon and talk about some games that might otherwise fly under the radar.

The weekly contributors are D3football.com Executive Editor Pat Coleman, Managing Editor and National Columnist Keith McMillan, and Senior Editor and Mid-Atlantic Columnist Ryan Tipps.

Here now are our picks for great matchups, upsets and much more:

Game of the Week.
Ryan’s take: No. 15 Hardin-Simmons at Whitworth. I think that this is going to be the kind of year the Cowboys were supposed to have in 2009. Justin Feaster is back under center, and standout receiver ZaVious Robbins returns, too. Add that to the nearly full slate of returning offensive hardware, and the 10 opponents on the schedule better watch out. To kick things off, HSU goes up against Whitworth, a top-notch Northwest Conference team that prides itself on defense. Notable, too, is that memories of HSU’s second-half comeback in 2009 will certainly be haunting the Pirates.
Keith’s take: Lycoming at Rowan. Just a dozen years too late. It would have been a monster clash if this series had started when both were Eastern powerhouses and Stagg Bowl contenders playing just nine games a season. So what makes it a GOTW in 2010? Urgency. If Hardin-Simmons or UW-Stevens Point or St. Thomas lose one of this week’s sexier matchups, a perennial conference champ awaits in a game that could revive the season. The Warriors and Profs, however, face multiple roadblocks along their AQ path. Rowan is unlikely to get through Montclair State, Cortland State and Kean unscathed, so a non-conference win is crucial.
Pat’s take: No. 18 Willamette at No. 16 UW-Stevens Point. I got an e-mail from one Willamette fan who was sure that if St. Thomas was No. 5, then Willamette must be in the Top 10. If that’s true, they’ll have to prove it the first two weeks. There’s no shame in being No. 18, you know, especially out of 238. Like being No. 9 or so in Division I FBS.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset.
Ryan’s take: No. 22 Mississippi College. Since 2000, the Choctaws hold a 5-4 advantage in the Backyard Brawl rivalry with Millsaps. And like many great rivalries, the emotion of the day can make for some unique outcomes. Both teams are fairly balanced on what they bring back, so even if this isn’t an upset situation, it should be great matchup.
Keith’s take: No. 15 Hardin-Simmons. Not because I don’t think the Cowboys will be good. In December, they might be the last team from Texas standing. But we’ve seen HSU fly to the Pacific Northwest early in the season and take one on the chin more than once. Whitworth is no easy W on any field, and flying to Spokane can’t be much help.
Pat’s take: None. I just can’t say I have a strong feeling about any of these teams losing this week. I would throw a shout-out to St. Norbert opening its new stadium with a home game against No. 5 St. Thomas but if St. Thomas can win handily at Monmouth it should be able to do the same at St. Norbert.

Surprisingly close game.
Ryan’s take: Susquehanna at Moravian. Last year, these two teams were separated by a hefty six wins. But don’t expect Moravian to chuck in another 24-0 loss to its new conferencemate, Susquehanna. This year will certainly be a rebuilding one for the Greyhounds, but expect them to make every effort to take advantage of the five All-Conference players that the Crusaders lost from last season.
Pat’s take: John Carroll at Case Western Reserve. Here’s a backyard brawl without the fancy promotional graphics between these two Cleveland schools which were separated by light-years figuratively over the past four years. But I think the gap will be a lot narrower this time around and Keith and I ended up ranking them very close together in Kickoff. Alright, I promise, last Kickoff sales pitch.
Keith’s take: Bridgewater (Va.) at St. Vincent. The Bearcats, since reviving their program, are just 1-29. They were outscored by 20 points per game in 2009 and didn’t keep one closer than 13 points. But everything sets up for SVU to make this interesting: They host, the coaching staff came from Bridgewater and knows the Eagles’ style as well as anyone, and most importantly, there are finally seniors who have played four seasons for the Bearcats on the roster.

They’ll be on your radar.
Ryan’s take: Averett. The Cougars are in a nice position to reclaim the conference glory that escaped them after the 2006 season. Since that season, which saw Averett 30 minutes from a playoff berth, they’ve been 0-10, 4-5 and 7-3. This season marks a good opportunity to be at the top of the USA South pack — but that also means opening against the ODAC’s defending champion Hampden-Sydney. A win here would be telling for the rising Averett squad.
Keith’s take: Illinois Wesleyan. I’m as curious about the Titans as any team in the country this year. Just three offensive and four defensive starters return from a playoff team that represented one of Division III’s top half-dozen conferences in the playoffs last year. Is IWU deep enough as a program to stage a repeat? We’ll find out on its visit to Hope, a program many a Midwestern power has cut its teeth on en route to the playoffs.
Pat’s take: Massachuetts Maritime. That’s if Nathan Sherr can come anywhere close to the production he put up at running back last season, where he ran for 525 yards in a little over two games. The Buccaneers open up Thursday night against SUNY-Maritime.

Which 2009 playoff team is going to end up wishing it had a Week 1 bye?
Ryan’s take: No. 17 Monmouth. The Scots should walk away with a win on Saturday, but it will be hard-fought, and they’ll likely have their cage rattled a time or two. The last three times these teams have met, Wartburg has walked away with a trio of wins, including one that sent them to the NCAA Regional Finals. Monmouth has a lot of weapons, but Wartburg is also readied for battle.
Keith’s take: No. 3 Wesley. There are at least four top 25 teams who deserve to be called on the carpet for less-than-aggressive Week 1 scheduling. If you’ll be disappointed if you don’t win by at least 30, then you know who you are. The Wolverines, on the other hand, are likely either going to have their game canceled or are going to have to travel over the Chesapeake Bay Bridge in the remnants of a hurricane to get drenched in a game they could very well lose. A bye sounds better than either of those options.
Pat’s take: No. 8 Wittenberg. Sorry if this comes off as a little harsh, but opening against an 0-10 team playing its first game under a new coach might be good prep for playing Kenyon, Hiram and Oberlin, but not for playing Wabash or a playoff team. Plus, it will end up being a big drag on their strength of schedule. And yes, I was already thinking about that in July.

Which conference will have the most impressive non-conference win?
Ryan’s take: The Centennial, thanks to Ursinus. Albright certainly took a couple of hits in the skill positions, but it’s hard to erase their 2009 Cinderella story from people’s memories. Conquering them would give Ursinus a morale boost and a lot of momentum early on, even if Albright’s star doesn’t wind up burning as brightly this year.
Keith’s take: The Heartland, by Mount St. Joseph. Opening with a win against a team that changed coaches mid-summer following a 1-9 season isn’t generally the stuff of legends. But for the HCAC, a conference still clamoring for respect, a win against Wilmington is a win against a team from a D-III power conference in the OAC.
Pat’s take: The ODAC, with Hampden-Sydney. I think the Tigers are a little stronger than we give them credit for entering their opener with Averett. How many times has a Marty Favret offense plugged in another quarterback and been off to the races? I remember worrying about a Favret offense once. That was 1998, however.

Whose long losing streak is most likely to end?
Ryan’s take: Bluffton’s. Sure the Beavers are riding a 17-game losing streak and coming off a year where they really couldn’t get much offensive momentum going — but in that regard, it’s easy to wonder whether opponent Kalamazoo (sans Brandon Luczak) will either. To top it off, Kalamazoo was the last team that Bluffton beat, dating to 2008.
Keith’s take: Puget Sound’s. The Loggers haven’t won since 2008, and they’ll trot out a new coach (Jeff Thomas) and the new energy that usually accompanies one. Energy alone doesn’t win games, but established programs playing debuting expansion teams — Pacific, in this case — usually do.
Pat’s take: Mass-Dartmouth’s. How Mass-Dartmouth went from 6-4 to 0-10 is a bit of a surprise. I don’t think they go back to 6-4 or even 4-6, but a home game to open against Fitchburg State is an opportunity to end an 11-game losing streak.