By Riley Zayas

January 2, 2024

It’s that time again! With New Year’s Day being yesterday, Top 25 ballots were submitted today, one day later than is typical for the D3hoops.com Poll. As I do each week, I wrote down my thoughts and analysis on my Top 25 ballot, and the 25 teams that I included. Once again, I am one of just 25 voters in this national poll, so this is simply the perspective of one national voter on the Top 25 landscape, but not a representation of how every voter approaches their ballot. That is one of the things that makes this poll so great. With 25 voters, you get varying opinions and perspectives on teams, leading to an interesting ranking. And that is even more so the case this week, as we went three weeks without an official Top 25 Poll. Within that time, we had an incredible amount of nationally-relevant matchups, many of which were at neutral sites, and gave us a chance to watch teams face off in key non-conference contests. Those matchups, as you will see in my notes below, proved especially insightful in several cases, as I worked to order and evaluate the teams in my ballot. It will not surprise me if we get a large number of teams in the “receiving votes” category this week, simply because there were so many results (impactful wins and losses) within the last few weeks that will affect how teams are perceived and ranked within each voter’s ballot.

Anyway, here we go…

1. NYU (11-0): The Violets took down a solid UW-Platteville team on a neutral court in Santa Cruz, California, in what was a fourth Massey Top 50 win for NYU. The way the Violets performed in that 76-50 victory, including outscoring the Pioneers 16-2 in the second quarter, continues to speak volumes about NYU’s depth and talent level. This is a squad that heads into UAA play with a perfect 11-0 record and six Massey Top 100 wins already. Lots to like from the Violets right now.
2. Transylvania (11-0): Transylvania had a solid week, notching a win over UW-Eau Claire (currently Massey Top 50) in Lexington. The Pioneers went 2-0 on their home court with victories over Edgewood and UWEC, and are very much on pace to go 25-0 once again through the regular season. As I mentioned last week, the defensive efficiency is exceptional, but the balance amongst scorers on the offensive end is another thing that makes Transy dangerous. All five starters scored in double figures in the win over UWEC on Saturday.
3. UW-Whitewater (11-0): The Warhawks were not in action this last week, so no real update on Whitewater. The body of work from this team through non-conference play was really impressive, especially as Carroll remains in a good position as a Top 25 contender, and Illinois Wesleyan surges higher in the poll (or at least, in my ballot…we’ll see about the poll when it is released tonight). The IWU win came on the road, and the victory over Concordia-Moorhead, a narrow victory, but a win nonetheless, came on a neutral court. Throw in a quality win over Chicago, and this team looks very strong headed into WIAC play. Beyond just the numbers, Whitewater is incredibly tough to defend, with five shooters on the floor at all times. There is clear communication between the guards and posts, and that is valuable as well. We’ve seen it against nationally-ranked competition multiple times this year, and we’ll see it through WIAC play in the coming weeks and months.
4. Rhode Island College (12-0): Just behind Whitewater, RIC also boasts a really impressive resume. Four wins over Top 50 Massey teams, two of which were on a neutral court, certainly sticks out. I like the direction the Anchorwomen are headed in, and they continue LEC play against Mass.-Dartmouth on Thursday in a matchup that should push RIC a little bit.
5. Scranton (11-0): The Lady Royals remain in the Top 5 with a perfect record and strong on-court play. The victory over DeSales is Scranton’s lone Massey Top 100 win, but to put context to the 11-0 record, Scranton ranks No. 2 in efficiency nationally (only behind NYU), per D3Datacast.com. That efficiency shows up when watching Scranton compete, and everything seems to be clicking for the Lady Royals heading into a key Landmark Conference duel at Elizabethtown tomorrow.
6. Illinois Wesleyan (11-2): Yes, I have the Titans ahead of Hope, who beat them earlier in the year. But I think we have seen IWU tested a little bit more, and more importantly, away from their home court. That said, the margin between IWU, Gustavus Adolphus, and Hope is very, very narrow. The depth of IWU continues to be very impressive, and results-wise, three of IWU’s top four wins (all Massey Top 50) have come away from Bloomington. The neutral court victories over Puget Sound and WashU are strong wins, as is the victory at Chicago. The continual improvement of the Titans has been cool to watch, and I think at this point, we’re seeing a team that is cohesive, balanced, and remarkably tough to beat on the defensive end.
7. Gustavus Adolphus (9-1): The Gusties took down Bethel, 61-45, on Saturday, adding to its win total heading into a pivotal MIAC matchup at Concordia-Moorhead tomorrow. Overall, the non-conference portion of the schedule served Gustavus fairly well, as it yielded a strong win over UW-Stout, and even the loss to Rhode Island College provided a good test and benefitted the Strength of Schedule. As mentioned a second ago, the margins between IWU, Gustavus, and Hope are minimal, but right now, I’m giving the Gusties a slight edge ahead of a very good Hope team.
8. Hope (12-1): The Flying Dutch came away with two wins in New York City over Lehman and Salem State, but that did little to strengthen Hope’s resume. However, Hope has several top-level results already this year, and I’ve been impressed by the approach of this team. Having a completely new starting five is difficult, so beating Illinois Wesleyan, UW-Platteville, Millikin, and Augustana, amongst others, becomes even more notable. That’s my biggest takeaway from Hope right now. Massey Ratings has the Flying Dutch at No. 3.
9. Christopher Newport (13-1): To be clear, CNU didn’t fall from No. 6 to No. 9 on my ballot purely because of the loss to SUNY New Paltz. But it did have something to do with it. CNU had two tough games at the Stevens Tournament, and while the Captains beat Stevens on Saturday, it took them a little while to pull away. We saw similar situations against both Grove City and Whitman. CNU is certainly a Top 10 team in my mind, and playing so much away from home does not make things any easier. To only have one loss heading into January is actually a big positive, considering the schedule CNU has played so far. Ultimately, IWU, Gustavus, and Hope had slight edges over the Captains, though we will see what plays out moving forwards.
10. Millikin (10-2): We hear so much about Elyce Knudsen and Bailey Coffman when discussing Millikin, which is valid, but I think Sophie Darden and Matayia Tellis have both stepped up for Millikin as well. That creates a real challenge for opponents on both ends of the floor. There are no major visible weaknesses for the Big Blue, who boast two wins over Massey Top 50 teams in DePauw and UW-Platteville. I’ll be interested to see how the rest of the voters handle the loss to Hope. Considering that game was played in Holland, and against a Hope team that we know is Top 10-caliber, it is hard to knock Millikin that much. The CCIW is going to be an incredibly tough league, evidenced by the fact that I have two CCIW squads within my Top 10 right now.
11. Emory (10-1): Emory is a better team than I think they’ve been given credit for. The Hardin-Simmons win sticks out, considering HSU has experience and depth, and several different scorers on the floor at all times. I thought Emory handled that very well on the defensive end, and besides the loss to CNU (in which they were without Claire Brock), Emory has not stumbled. Expect several more top-quality results from the Eagles as UAA play tips off.
12. Johns Hopkins (10-1): I had JHU on my last ballot, but the Blue Jays have made some significant jumps to reach the No. 12 spot this week. The 87-79 victory over Chicago on a neutral court last week was yet another quality win for the frontrunner in the Centennial Conference, who only seems to be playing better and better as the weeks progress. JHU had not played for 20 days leading into the matchup against Chicago, but seemed to be in rhythm from the jump. That was impressive to see, and the wins over WashU and Gettysburg contribute well to JHU’s current resume as well.
13. UW-Stout (10-1): The Blue Devils have added a mid-year transfer, Lexi Wagner, who previously played at D1 Youngstown State and D2 Mercyhurst. Wagner is a skilled scorer, and only improves the versatility and depth found on UW-Stout’s roster. It is another big positive for a team that rolled through the first two months of the season with virtually no hiccups outside of the loss at Gustavus Adolphus. The offensive efficiency is exceptional, and the Blue Devils will be able to win plenty of games behind their outside scorer presence. That said, the WIAC schedule is no joke, and I’m excited to see how Stout navigates the first week of league play with a game at UW-Stevens Point and a home duel against UW-Oshkosh; UWSP is 11-0 and UWO is in my Top 25 this week.
14. Wartburg (11-2): The Knights are difficult to figure out. Wartburg clearly has plenty of experienced talent, but has shown some inconsistency as of late. They have taken two fairly-one sided loss to Whitman (85-51), and WashU (72-46) in the last two weeks, but also beat DePauw, 89-40, on a neutral court within that span. I’ll be keeping a close eye on the Knights as ARC play resumes. It will not surprise me to see Wartburg back near (or in) the Top 10 as the next two months progress. But the losses to Whitman and WashU are difficult to grade as a voter, considering neither was a very competitive contest. Time will tell, but Wartburg is a Top 15 team at this point in time from my perspective, and I would guess most voters will agree.
15. Amherst (9-0): I’ve had the Mammoths in my Top 25 since the preseason, and having seen them play, I have little doubt that a No. 15 ranking is warranted. But Amherst also does not have the current results to back that up…yet. We get NESCAC play on Friday/Saturday of this week, and Amherst opens against Williams and Middlebury (who beat Stevens and lost to New Paltz by 3 this past weekend). Both games are at home, and will give us a good chance to see how Amherst contends against stronger competition.
16. Hardin-Simmons (11-2): HSU is 11-2 and in a good spot right now as ASC play picks back up. The trip to Georgia saw the Cowgirls defeat Piedmont and fall to Emory, as their record moved to 11-2. For the most part, I like what I’ve seen from HSU, and the experience on the roster continues to be a point in the Cowgirls’ favor. But ASC play will be the real test. McMurry and Mary Hardin-Baylor are HSU’s next two games, and both teams have opened the season strong. I was glad to see HSU challenge itself by going to Emory and contending on the road, and as a result (along with a few other key results from other teams), HSU does not really move much in my ranking.
17. Whitman (9-3): I said it last week, but Whitman’s performances against Wartburg and Christopher Newport in Nashville were very valuable. It gave us a chance to see the Blues in action against Top-15 ranked opponents on a neutral court, especially having not been tested all that much early in the non-conference schedule. Beating Wartburg, 85-51, put the Blues back on my radar, and contending against CNU only furthered the resume. The 17-25 spots in this ballot, as you will see, were very tough to arrange in terms of order. Whitman ultimately ends up at No. 17 as I value Wartburg highly and the wins over Colorado College and Pacific certainly help. I should also note that while Whitman has three losses, only two came against D3 opponents.
18. Bowdoin (10-1): Bowdoin defeated Chicago this past week in a strong victory for the Polar Bears, who are trending up, in my opinion. We’ve seen wins over Bates and Springfield in addition to the recent one over Chicago, and much like Amherst, NESCAC play should only solidify Bowdoin’s place in the Top 25. Watching them play, the offensive efficiency really sticks out, especially as the Polar Bears shoot 45.6% from the field. Interested to see where Bowdoin ends up in tonight’s Top 25 Poll, as I think Bowdoin is a little bit underrated at this point in time.
19. UW-Oshkosh (9-2): Early on, I was unsure about Oshkosh, but as the season progresses, I like the way the Titans are playing. According to Massey Ratings, Oshkosh is the nation’s best defensive team, and we saw that in the Titans’ 69-41 win over Ripon on Saturday. They allow an average of 44.7 points per game, and currently hold quality wins over WashU and Wittenberg, in addition to having beaten Ripon. Definitely right up there with Whitewater and Stout as a WIAC contender, and certainly in position for an NCAA Tournament bid.
20. Catholic (11-0): Catholic has more than earned its spot in my ballot, as going undefeated is no small feat. My concern had been the quality of Catholic’s schedule, but having watched the Cardinals’ win over Marymount, I am confident in where Catholic ended up in my ballot. We’ve seen Catholic beat three Massey Top 100 teams (Shenandoah, Elizabethtown, Marymount), which strengthens its resume, and I am especially interested to see the home matchup against Scranton on Jan. 12. That will be a crucial matchup in the Landmark, and especially so for Catholic, considering it is a chance to face Scranton at home.
21. Mary Hardin-Baylor (11-1): UMHB is similar to Amherst and Catholic right now in the sense that The Cru has put together a very strong run to open the season, but does not have many quality results to point to. Millsaps challenged the Crusaders on a neutral court in New York City, but UMHB passed that test and extended its win streak to 11. Ultimately, you have to win the games in front of you, and that is what UMHB has done. Katie Novak-Lenoir, in her first year as head coach, is leading the program extremely well, playing a fast-paced style that also puts an emphasis on quality defense. UMHB faces UT-Dallas this coming Saturday in what should be a great defensive battle within the ASC.
22. WashU (7-4): This is a case where you really have to balance a look at the overall body of work in addition to recent performance. WashU started the season with a 3-4 record, but in the four games since First Team All-UAA guard Jessica Brooks returned to the floor, the Bears are a perfect 4-0. And those wins have come against Dubuque, Fontbonne, UW-River Falls, and Wartburg. Three of those four are in the Massey Top 100. Two of those (UWRF and Wartburg) are in the Massey Top 50, and WashU beat those two teams on consecutive days. The 72-46 win over Wartburg at Wartburg’s holiday tournament was pretty impressive and played a role in getting WashU to No. 22, as opposed to being No. 24 or No. 25. Again, I think Wartburg is a solid Top 15 team, and to win by that margin on the opponent’s home court deserves some serious recognition. WashU also has Lexy Harris in the post, who is quickly making her case to be a Freshman All-America selection. The Bears have also played the nation’s sixth-toughest strength-of-schedule, according to Massey Ratings. I really like the direction WashU is headed in with UAA play beginning this week.
23. Puget Sound (8-3): The Loggers are in my ballot for the first time this season. They play several non-D3 opponents in non-conference play (much like Whitman), which makes it a little tougher to gauge the ordering of Puget Sound in my ballot. But the fact that the Loggers went to the Midwest on consecutive weekends and faced UW-Eau Claire, UW-Stout, Illinois Wesleyan, and John Carroll is something we rarely see from NWC teams, and is outstanding for resume-building. Puget Sound went 2-2 in those games, picking up a Massey Top 50 win over UW-Eau Claire (on UWEC’s home court) and a neutral court win over John Carroll, who is in the Massey Top 100. Their D3 losses to IWU and UW-Stout are quality losses, especially with the way both have played since those early November matchups. If you remember, Puget Sound fell to IWU by a 78-77 margin and led that game, 44-36, at the half.
24. Trinity (TX) (9-4): December saw Trinity drop three games in the span of a week, all of which were away from home and against Massey Top 100 opponents. It also saw the Tigers leave the D3hoops.com Classic with a quality win over Framingham State, who was 11-0 entering the contest. Natalie Anderson being unavailable for the last four games did not help the matter, as she nearly averages a double-double, with 18.8 points and 9.6 rebounds per game. That said, Trinity’s guard play is exceptional and St. Thomas (MN) transfer Natalie Greenwood should give the Tigers more depth in the post, especially in Anderson’s absence. It will not surprise me in the slightest if Trinity closes the regular season by going undefeated through the remainder of SCAC play.
25. MIT (8-2): The final spot in my ballot really came down to three teams: MIT, Tufts, and Smith. All three had similar resumes, though Smith’s 66-63 loss on Sunday to Dickinson hurt the Pioneers’ chances of being ranked just a little bit more. I had Smith high in early December, but watching more film on them and evaluated results since that point, I think MIT has the edge, especially considering, amongst other aspects, MIT won at Trinity (CT), while Smith beat the Bantams at home. MIT also has three Massey Top 50 wins, while Smith has just one. Tufts was also in the mix, but it was tough for me to think about putting Tufts ahead of MIT, when MIT beat the Jumbos on the road. In fact, all three of MIT’s best wins came away from home, which is pretty notable. That included a win over WashU that looks even better as of late. We’ll see what is ahead for MIT in NEWMAC play.

Hope you enjoyed this ballot breakdown! The D3hoops.com Top 25 Poll will be released tonight, so stay tuned for that. Have a great rest of your day! And as always, feel free to reach out with thoughts/feedback, Leave a comment below, DM me on X/Twitter (@ZayasRiley) or email me at rileyzayas@gmail.com.

Other links that are insightful & mentioned above: 

D3Datacast.com WBB Efficiency Ratings

Massey Ratings-D3 WBB

Scott Peterson’s Current Season Results Model