I think it is safe to say that the top 25 voters would have made different decisions on Pool C bids than the Men’s and Women’s Basketball Committees did. According to the pollsters, one women’s and five men’s teams that did not receive tournament invitations are among the top 25 in the nation. This includes men’s #9 UW-Oshkosh, the highest-ranked men’s team ever to be denied a chance to play for the national title. The five “snubbed” men’s teams matches the record total from the 2002 tournament, a tournament played before the expansion from 48 teams to the current 59-team field.
The women’s bracket, by contrast, looks pretty satisfactory from a top 25 persepective. The only ranked team to be left out is #18 Hardin-Simmons, which is a far cry from the 2005 bracket, which omitted seven of the season-ending top 25 from it’s 50-team field.
The final regular-season top 25 poll has proven to be a good but by no means perfect predictor of the national tournament. On the men’s side, there have always been either one or two Final Four teams that were in the year-end top 4. The teams ranked #1, #3, and #4 have reached the Final Four roughly half of the time, but oddly enough the team that finished the season ranked #2 has not made the Final Four in the seven-year history of the poll. The team that carries this dubious burden into the weekend is Wooster. There has yet to be a men’s Final Four team that was unranked at the end of the regular season. The men’s tournament has been won by a top 10 team in every year of the poll except 2001 (won by #14 Catholic,) with the average ranking of the champion being #6 (good news for fans of Amherst.)
The year-end women’s top 25 is also a good predictor, with a bit more variability than the men’s. There was a year (2004) where the Final Four had three top 4 teams, and another (2002) where the entire top 4 was eliminated prior to the final weekend. That was the only year that the year-end #1 team failed to make the Final Four, so women’s #1 Bowdoin looks to be in good shape to reach Springfield. On the other hand Scranton has reason to worry, as the team ranked third in the final pre-tournament poll has never reached the semifinals. On three occasions, including last year’s Hardin-Simmons team, an unranked team has reached the Final Four. There was even one semifinalist that failed to receive a single vote in the year-end poll (Ohio Wesleyan in 2001). The top-ranked team has not won the title since Washington U. ’s last title, in 2001. In the five years since, the Walnut and Bronze has been shipped home by teams ranked anywhere from #6 (Hope last year and Millikin the previous year) to #21 (Trinity (TX) in 2003,) with the average rank of the winner over that period being approximately #12, a good augur for McMurry.
Good luck to all of the participating teams, and may the best teams win!
Debutantes:
Women: The Falcons of Concordia University of Wisconsin ended their regular season on a 19-game winning streak, which included the regular season and tournament championships in the Northern Athletics Conference, and enter the women’s poll voting for the first time ever. Concordia travels to Luther this weekend to battle the 25th-ranked Norse.
Men: #23 Centre College enters the men’s Top 25 poll for the first time ever. The Colonels shared the SCAC title this season with DePauw, then won the SCAC tournament in Memphis to advance to the NCAA tournament. Centre takes its 23-4 record to Wooster, OH this weekend, where they will face Capital University.
Congratulations to the Falcons and the Colonels!
Streakers:
Women: #3 Scranton, undaunted by their bad-luck ranking, are a top 25 team for the 90th consecutive week. Puget Sound received votes for the 20th straight week, while Baldwin-Wallace dropped off the voting rolls for the first time in 32 weeks.
Men: The College of Wooster, holders of the unpropitious #2 ranking, are in the top 25 for the 75th consecutive week. This impressive streak is second only to the record 77-week string held by #6 Amherst. #4 Virginia Wesleyan is a vote-getter for the 25th straight time. #16 UW-La Crosse and #13 Elmhurst, both denied bids to the NCAA tournament, can take small consolation in the extensions of their voting streaks to 20 and 10 weeks, respectively. Puget Sound dropped out of the top 25 for the first time in 51 weeks.
Milestones:
Women: #16 Wilmington makes their 100th appearance among the vote-getting teams this week. Congratulations to the Quakers on this achievement! Twelfth-ranked McMurry received votes for the 50th time. Other teams reaching milestones in the vote-getting category include St. Lawrence (70 weeks), #17 Brandeis (60 weeks), #10 Mary Washington (40 weeks), and Kean (20 weeks.) Fourth-ranked Messiah’s appearance in the top 25 this week is their 100th of all-time. Congratulations to the Falcons! #3 Scranton is a top 25 team for the 120th time, while #13 Emmanuel and #20 Medaille are in the poll for the 40th and 10th times, respectively. #7 Calvin is among the top 10 for the 10th time.
Men: #13 Elmhurst and #15 Occidental each appear in the voting results for the 50th time this week. #22 Salem St. is a vote-getter for the 60th time; Capital received votes for the 40th week; and Averett was named on ballots for the 10th time. Fifth-ranked St. Thomas is a member of the top 10 for the 20th week. #25 John Carroll is ranked for the 40th time, while #16 UW-La Crosse and #24 NYU are each a top 25 team for the 10th time.
High-Water Marks:
Women: The hits just keep on coming in Brownwood—#2 Howard Payne has once again set a new record for highest-ever ranking, a record they have broken or matched in every poll this season. Other women’s teams that reached new all-time highs just in time for the NCAAs include #14 Lake Forest, #20 Medaille, and #21 Maine-Farmington.
Men: Men’s teams carrying their highest-ever rankings into the NCAA tournament include #3 Mississippi College, #14 Aurora, #21 Rhode Island College, and debutante #23 Centre. UW-La Crosse tied their highest-ever ranking at #16.
Movers and Shakers:
Women: For the second straight week, the principal movement in the women’s poll was downward. The largest gains were recorded by #16 Wilmington (+66 points and 4 rankings) and #5 Hope (+59/+2), both relatively modest gains. The downward march was led by #24 Illinois Wesleyan, who lost twice last week and shed 144 points and six spots in the final poll. #7 Calvin’s loss to archrival Hope cost them 98 points and 5 placements, while the premature end of #18 Hardin-Simmons’ season was reflected in their 96-point, five-spot drop in the poll.
Men: #17 Wittenberg fell in the NCAC semifinals, costing them 131 poll points, 7 ranking placements, and a chance for a second straight trip to Salem. #19 Guilford also lost 131 points after losing in the ODAC quarterfinals, but it cost them just 2 spots in the poll; and #18 WPI slipped 5 spots and 119 points after losing in the NEWMAC title game. #8 Washington U. clinched the UAA title, moving up 123 points and 4 placements, while CCIW conference and tournament champion #7 Augustana gained 114 points and 2 spots.
In looking at the brackets I see UW-Stevens(1), St.Thomas(5), Salem State(22), Lake Erie(not ranked) all with first round byes. Does this mean NCAA selection committee consider the above the top four teams? If not why give those four bye? Is it possible the Top 25 poll might have under estimate certain teams because the rep of there confrence? The NCAA should a little Q&A on why certain decisions are made outside the general criteria to get in. It would be neat to get there line of thought on such matters.
What are the bracket seeds? I’m dying to see where the foolish selection committee places the seeds.
Here is a link to the NCAA D3 basketball championships handbook. CHECK OUT PAGE 16 for the criteria on team selection.
http://www.ncaa.org/library/handbooks/basketball/2007/2007_d3_m_basketball_handbook.pdf
Amherst also has a first round bye.
Sean,
The only thing the rule book states is the higher seed is on top of the competition bracket(P16). I am assuming the selection commmittee/computer/unknown people of interest have ranked all the teams but do not release to the public.
jcp,
I have no idea what the selection committee does with any of the information.
I do wish they would get a clue.
Why don’t we have 64 teams?
We can have 64 teams just as soon as you pony up the money for the travel for the extra squads. The NCAA only pays for what they have to.
The byes have more to do with geographical location than anything. Certainly they are reserved for top teams, but avoiding a flight takes priority. I’d say that the byes this year went to teams very near the top of the NCAA rankings.
Sean, the NCAA pays for playoff bids for all team sports at a ratio of 1:6.5 participants, capped at 32 for football and capped at 64 for basketball.
That is what has been deemed fair by the members for all student-athletes.
You are right about the byes being used for geographic proximity. Capital is probably very happy to host on Thursday night rather than being shipped somewhere for a Friday game.
I suppose there’s no use complaining about the brackets, but here goes anyway. Men’s side: one quadrant of the bracket contains five of the top ten teams, and all but 5 of the top 14. Sure didn’t do UW-SP any good to be #1 in the D3 Hoops poll. And for Hope or Chicago to make the final four, they will potentially need to beat four top-14 teams. Wooster, on the other hand, can potentially face no one ranked higher than 23rd; Amherst, no higher than 18th. Women’s side: somewhat better balance, although one quadrant has four of the top ten, including the only top-ten second round matchup (Hope and DePauw). And Hope and Calvin, both top-ten, could face lower-ranked opponents on the opponents home floor the first weekend. Moral of the story: either D3 Hoops can’t rank, or the NCAA can’t seed. Oh, and if you want a break from the NCAA, you’d better hope your name isn’t Hope.
Actually, the NCAA doesn’t WANT to seed.
In men’s basketball, that is. The women’s committee does a far better job of breaking teams up.
Play ’em first game or last game, you still got to beat ’em all to win the thing.
For truth in advertising purposes, I graduated from Augustana and played ball there…I agree whole heartedly with SmedIndy that you got to beat all the teams to be the champion. With that said, the CCIW must not have a representative on the selection committee. When a middle of the pack squad like Wheaton can lose by 1 to Northwestern (I know they are near the bottom of the Big 10), the conference must be strong enough to warrant more than one representive.
Also, according to my reading of the brackets,the teams that are seeded highest get a bye. Since Stevens Point is the top seed (according to the polls) then St. Thomas must be #2. So following the normal bracket logic, that makes Augustana the #7 seed (assuming that they were ranked above Carroll) in the bracket. Expanding of that assumption Augie would be ranked somewhere between 25 and 28 in the nation.
I know that the pairings are done by geography but how can the #7 team ranked by d3hopps be the #7 team in their bracket?
Actually…. Northwestern may be the bottom team of the Big 10 but I am sure there is more pride in Chicagoland for the Wildcats than there is in the Twin Cities for our Gophers who just lost their 8th straight game.
But enough Div I talk.
LET THE GAMES BEGIN!
Oh, yeah, AND THE MINNESOTA SNOW TO STOP!
I really REALLY want to hit the road tomorrow night but neither the sanity of me nor that of the individuals who loan me their automobiles this time of year can afford to have me in this mess two weekends in a row.
Safe travels to all in the upper midwest this weekend. The roads, from what I hear, are treacherous. I will be one person who will likely be unhappy spending the first day of men’s games at home watching the fluffy white stuff gather outside his apartment window.