Quick Hits: Picking a number to beat

Posted on September 29, 2017 by Pat Coleman

There are three games between ranked teams this week, and a fourth which could have been (stares at Whitewater’s goal-line stats), But there are also other battles between unbeatens, and games worthy staying up late for, and that’s what Quick Hits is looking at this week.

Our regular crew is Keith McMillan, Ryan Tipps, Pat Coleman, Adam Turer and Frank Rossi. Our sixth spot goes to a guest each week, and this week’s is Gene Schatz, a Division III football fan whose son played quarterback at Wesley a few years back. Gene has continued to follow Division III very closely and still travels to see D-III games. Take note, D-III parents. You don’t have to leave when your player graduates.

— Pat Coleman (photo by d3photography.com)

What’s the Week 5 game of the week?

Keith’s take: UW-Whitewater at No. 3 UW-Oshkosh. By a hair over Whitworth at Linfield.	Ryan’s take: UW-Whitewater at No. 3 UW-Oshkosh. Preseason, this was a no-brainer. Even now, still a good one as UW-W vies to stay in the playoff hunt.	Pat’s take: No. 14 Whitworth at No. 8 Linfield. Also like the Wisconsin game but now have questions about UWO thanks to JCU’s first four weeks.
Adam’s take: No. 14 Whitworth at No. 8 Linfield. The Pirates can shake up the NWC, for one year at least.	Frank’s take: No. 19 Illinois Wesleyan at No. 5 Wheaton. Thunder can use field to escape bad news, but losing five players never helps midway through.	Gene’s take: No. 14 Whitworth at No. 8 Linfield. Interested to see if Whitworth can finally get past the NWC king who lost plenty from last year’s team.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to get upset?

Keith’s take: No. 13 Johns Hopkins. Ursinus has scored 35 points in each of its four wins.	Ryan’s take: No. 20 Alfred. With a lot left to prove, they’re not even on my ballot yet.	Pat’s take: No. 15 Wittenberg. This is a team which is in a significantly different place on my Top 25 ballot than 15.
Adam’s take: No. 15 Wittenberg. The Tigers will have their hands full with Denison’s prolific offense led by QB Canaan Gebele.	Frank’s take: No. 20 Alfred. Alfred has seemed leg-weary at times, while Buffalo State seems to be improving a little each week.	Gene’s take: No. 12 UW-Platteville. Stout is coming off of the victory over St. Thomas and 2 weeks prep could make for a tough game for Platteville.

Who has a letdown after a big game last week?

Keith’s take: Wilmington. After an overtime win vs. Capital, winning at John Carroll would be a stunner.	Ryan’s take: Muhlenberg. Opponent F&M has been hot this year, though this should be a close one.	Pat’s take: Luther. A win at home is one thing, but on the road at a rejuvenated program in BVU is something else.
Adam’s take: East Texas Baptist. The Tigers hung 79 last week, but will be lucky to score half that against HSU. Not discounting ETBU’s chances, though.	Frank’s take: Christopher Newport. CNU had decent bounce-back game at Montclair, but Rowan’s defense could derail their momentum.	Gene’s take: Buffalo State, coming off a big win over RPI after trailing at the half, heads to Alfred to take on the Saxons and remain at the top of the E8.

Which game should people be watching at the end of the night?

Keith’s take: Redlands at Occidental. In support of the fact there’s a game to watch.	Ryan’s take: No. 6 Hardin-Simmons at East Texas Baptist. Two undefeated power-conference teams — a perfect recipe.	Pat’s take: Pacific at George Fox. Unless I’m watching Redlands-Occidental or the archive of UWW/UWO.
Adam’s take: Redlands at Occidental. I can’t wait to see how hungry the Tigers are to finally play their second game of the season.	Frank’s take: Redlands at Occidental. D3 Nation should be rooting for Oxy’s players, who are severely undermanned but want to play, to keep this game close.	Gene’s take: UWW vs. Oshkosh. Does UWW continue to struggle this year and the loss puts them out of the playoffs or do they climb back into the discussion?

Who surpasses their 2016 win total this week?

Keith’s take: Rochester (2). At Becker, the Yellowjackets get their second 2017 win following a 1-8 2016.	Ryan’s take: Birmingham-Southern (2). Against Trinity, they’re looking for win No. 2.	Pat’s take: Allegheny (2). The Gators will have a challenge from the Hiram offense but the rebuild will move forward.
Adam’s take: Rochester (2). The Yellowjackets pick up the win against a winless Becker squad.	Frank’s take: Hartwick (2). Utica has failed to meet expectations while the Hawks’ offense has clicked..	Gene’s take: McDaniel (4). At 3-7 last year, McDaniel looks to pick up win No. 4 against the 1-3 Juniata Eagles.

How many NCAC teams will remain unbeaten, and which ones will they be?

Keith’s take: Three. DePauw, Wabash, Denison.	Ryan’s take: Three: DePauw, Bash and Witt.	Pat’s take: Three. DePauw, Wabash, Denison.
Adam’s take: Three. Wabash, DePauw, and Denison.	Frank’s take: Three. DePauw, Wabash, Wittenberg.	Gene’s take: Three. Wabash, DePauw, and Wittenberg.

We invite you to add your predictions in the comments below. Download the Around the Nation podcast on Mondays, where Pat and Keith review the Quick Hits that were prescient, and the Quick Misses that were terribly off base.

ATN Podcast 173: What’s wrong with big scores?

Posted on September 4, 2017 by Pat Coleman

Lots of cool and interesting things happened in the opening weekend of Division III football. Of course, many of them were overshadowed by the 98-0 win by St. John’s over St. Scholastica. Nobody here at D3football.com is suggesting someone ran up the score, though. Keith McMillan and Pat Coleman have a different thought in mind.

Pat and Keith run through all the top news, the hidden highlights, the risers and sliders, the quick hits and quick misses and more from the week in Division III football. Plus, our first podcast was 10 years ago this very day, and Pat and Keith talk about that and have a few clips, both highlights and outtakes.

The D3football.com Around the Nation Podcast is a regular conversation between Pat Coleman and Keith McMillan and guests covering the wide range of Division III football. During the season, it hits your feed weekly on Monday morning.

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Photo by Alexus Jungles for SJU athletics
You can subscribe to the Around the Nation Podcast in iTunes. You can also get this and any of our future Around the Nation podcasts automatically by subscribing to this RSS feed: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3football/?feed=podcast

Quick Hits: Our second-round score picks

Posted on November 25, 2016 by Pat Coleman

If the predictions hold, we are in for a great second round of games. The consensus of our group isn’t that any game will be out of hand. Both rematches should be closer than the first meeting, we think. A minority opinion, but still a present one, suggests the defending champion could lose this week, as well as the No. 1 team.

If any of this comes true, well, you saw it here first. And if something happens that isn’t represented here, then it’s a surprise.

You have predictions? Add them in the comments.

— Pat Coleman

Mary Hardin-Baylor bracket
Keith’s take: UMHB 38, Linfield 31 Ryan’s take: UMHB 45, Linfield 33 Pat’s take: UMHB 34, Linfield 28	Adam’s take: UMHB 41, Linfield 38 Frank’s take: Linfield 31, UMHB 24 Josh’s take: UMHB 35, Linfield 27
Consensus: Definite hope for Linfield fans, even in the close margins on the other side.
Keith’s take: North Central 27, Wheaton 21 Ryan’s take: North Central 28, Wheaton 24 Pat’s take: North Central 31, Wheaton 27	Adam’s take: North Central 31, Wheaton 27 Frank’s take: North Central 30, Wheaton 27 Josh’s take: North Central 28, Wheaton 14
Consensus: Almost everyone thinks the rematch will be closer.
Alfred bracket
Keith’s take: Alfred 24, W. New England 17 Ryan’s take: Alfred 35, W. New England 21 Pat’s take: Alfred 29, W. New England 28	Adam’s take: Alfred 38, W. New England 21 Frank’s take: Alfred 34, W. New England 31 Josh’s take: Alfred 31, W. New England 28
Consensus: Bunch of close scores after Alfred’s first-round scare.
Keith’s take: Johns Hopkins 34, Mount Union 31 Ryan’s take: Mount Union 42, Johns Hopkins 17 Pat’s take: Mount Union 38, Johns Hopkins 35	Adam’s take: Johns Hopkins 40, Mount Union 38 Frank’s take: Mount Union 40, Johns Hopkins 24 Josh’s take: Mount Union 42, Johns Hopkins 28
Consensus: Not a straight sweep for Mount Union here.
St. Thomas bracket
Keith’s take: St. Thomas 47, Coe 21 Ryan’s take: St. Thomas 35, Coe 14 Pat’s take: St. Thomas 31, Coe 20	Adam’s take: St. Thomas 42, Coe 20 Frank’s take: St. Thomas 40, Coe 20 Josh’s take: St. Thomas 38, Coe 17
Consensus: This is the only game that the group all feels will be more than one score.
Keith’s take: UW-Oshkosh 45, St. John’s 28 Ryan’s take: UW-Oshkosh 24, St. John’s 17 Pat’s take: UW-Oshkosh 30, St. John’s 21	Adam’s take: UW-Oshkosh 42, St. John’s 31 Frank’s take: UW-Oshkosh 24, St. John’s 14 Josh’s take: UW-Oshkosh 41, St. John’s 31
Consensus: Could be a low-scoring game. Could be a higher-scoring one.
UW-Whitewater bracket
Keith’s take: John Carroll 30, Wesley 20 Ryan’s take: John Carroll 33, Wesley 27 Pat’s take: Wesley 30, John Carroll 24	Adam’s take: John Carroll 35, Wesley 34 Frank’s take: Wesley 30, John Carroll 21 Josh’s take: Wesley 24, John Carroll 21
Consensus: Our most even split decision of the week, 3-3.
Keith’s take: UW-Whitewater 28, Wittenberg 13 Ryan’s take: UW-Whitewater 34, Wittenberg 17 Pat’s take: UW-Whitewater 31, Wittenberg 27	Adam’s take: UW-Whitewater 28, Wittenberg 27 Frank’s take: UW-Whitewater 34, Wittenberg 17 Josh’s take: UW-Whitewater 31, Wittenberg 21
Consensus: UW-Whitewater sweeps the table, but with one one-point margin and a four-point margin.