Quick Hits Week 7: All eyes on Minnesota

Posted on October 18, 2019 by Greg Thomas

This week our Quick Hits panel delivers takes on Johnnie-Tommie, of course, but also points out upsets brewing out east, undefeated runs coming to an end, and which teams are going to go home victorious for the first time this season.

Our regular crew is Keith McMillan, Ryan Tipps, Pat Coleman, Adam Turer, Frank Rossi and Greg Thomas.

— Greg Thomas
Photo by Ryan Coleman, d3photography.com

Which game is the Game of the Week?

Keith’s take: Johnnie-Tommie. I might have gotten it wrong on the pod, but I’m right here. Given the rankings and the atmosphere, don’t think you can go anywhere else for GOTW.	Ryan’s take: The Johnnie-Tommie Game. As Pat would say … next question.	Pat’s take: The Johnnie-Tommie game. Not to go MIAC two weeks in a row, but to be honest, you have to.
Adam’s take: Johnnie-Tommie. This should be unanimous. Next question.	Frank’s take: No. 4 St. John’s vs. No. 11 St. Thomas. It’s a survival game for St. Thomas and a major rivalry game — you can’t ask for much more than that.	Greg’s take: Johnnie-Tommie, yes. But also Hobart @ Ithaca, Middlebury @ Wesleyan, Wartburg @ Simpson, Delaware Valley @ Wilkes, and Alfred @ Cortland make for a nice undercard.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to get upset?

Keith’s take: No. 9 Ithaca. The Bombers (5-0) would probably have to play their worst game of the season to lose to visiting Hobart (4-1), but I don’t like to cop out and say none for this question.	Ryan’s take: No. 19 UW-Platteville. Opponent UW-Stout has been playing better than their record would show, and Platteville is coming off a difficult loss last week.	Pat’s take: No. 12 Salisbury. Rowan has played well against a tough schedule and Salisbury can’t possibly execute as well as it did against Wesley.
Adam’s take: No. 22 Cortland. The Red Dragons have looked impressive, but against inferior competition. The first real test of the season comes in Week 7 against 5-1 Alfred. The Saxons are 4-1, coming off a bye week, and are faced with a must-win.	Frank’s take: No. 22 Cortland (vs. Alfred). Alfred had a bye week in Week 6, while Cortland struggled with Morrisville St. With 21 sacks in five games, the Saxons’ defense needs to reach Cortland QB Brett Segala to win this.	Greg’s take: No. 16 Delaware Valley. If there is a serious challenger in the MAC to the Aggies, it’s got to be the undefeated, home standing Wilkes Colonels.

Pick a winner from a game between unbeaten conference opponents.

Keith’s take: I think Del Val handles Wilkes, which is 5-0 against a schedule that’s 6-16 in its other games, and ranked 209th by one metric and 230th by another.	Ryan’s take: No. 22 Cortland, over Alfred. The Red Dragons’ margins of victory have been impressive all year, though this week starts the first game in a very tough back half of the season.	Pat’s take: St. Norbert, vs. Beloit. This might be the biggest gimme on the board.
Adam’s take: Monmouth. The Scots haven’t lost an MWC South contest since 2014. After laboring through an unexpected bye week due to Grinnell cancelling its season, the Scots will take out their frustration on Illinois College.	Frank’s take: Anna Maria (vs. Dean). This ECFC game could go a long way in deciding the conference winner, since there are just five league games per member. Anna Maria “rings the bell” in Paxton, Mass.	Greg’s take: No. 18 Wartburg. I’m higher on the Knights than the Top 25 is overall and I expect they’ll be able to weather the Storm on Saturday.

Which game are you following that nobody else on this panel is following?

Keith’s take: Morrisville State at Utica: The Mustangs nearly knocked off Alfred and Cortland the past two weeks. They are going to catch someone napping.	Ryan’s take: The middle of the NCAC. With 4-1 OWU squaring off against 3-2 DePauw, and 4-1 Denison against 3-2 Wooster, we’ll get a whole new (clearer?) picture of the conference after this weekend.	Pat’s take: The panel is pretty solid. But I know that if I don’t punch in the score of the Central-Buena Vista game, nobody else will either.
Adam’s take: Misericordia at FDU-Florham. For the second straight season, the Cougars have opened conference play with a win streak. Impressive after the program failed to string together consecutive wins through its first six years. I’ll be keeping an eye on Misericordia as long as the streak is alive.	Frank’s take: Springfield at Merchant Marine. The Mariners can’t get caught looking ahead to a potential NEWMAC undefeated showdown in Week 8 at WPI. Springfield needs to win the game to survive in the NEWMAC race.	Greg’s take: Washington U. @ No. 5 Wheaton. Wheaton has a game in hand against their chief CCIW rivals, but the Bears can formally insert themselves into the CCIW race by duplicating their 2018 upset of the Thunder.

Pick one of the remaining 23 undefeated teams to drop their first game.

Keith’s take: St. Olaf‘s schedule (8-17, 204th, 215th) is not much better than Wilkes’. Bethel gets it done.	Ryan’s take: Wilkes, to Delaware Valley. Though having a loss to a nationally ranked team, the Aggies are still likely to come out on top in the MAC in Week 11.	Pat’s take: Picked one above and will add Wilkes to the list.
Adam’s take: St. Olaf. I discussed this deja vu in today’s podcast. For the second straight season, the Oles opened 5-0. They will likely once again suffer their first loss at the hands of the Royals. Winning just one of their final five contests will give the Oles their best season since 2012.	Frank’s take: No. 4 St. John’s St. John’s has been somewhat inconsistent on offense, while St. Thomas has been more consistent on both sides of the ball. We’ll see if Eau Claire was a fluke or not by the end of this game.	Greg’s take: St. Olaf. I expect a solid rebound game from Jaran Roste and the Bethel Royals and a reminder about the pretty clear tiers that exist in the MIAC.

Pick one of the remaining 28 winless teams to pick up their first win.

Keith’s take: Allegheny (0-5) has had a top-loaded schedule, and will get on the right track against 3-2 Kenyon.	Ryan’s take: Buffalo State, over Rochester. In a game not as close as you’d think between two winless teams.	Pat’s take: Buffalo State. At least we know there will be one.
Adam’s take: Maryville. The only 2018 playoff participant still seeking its first victory of 2019, the Scots face an improved Methodist squad. Maryville’s offense finally got going in Week 6, putting up a season-high 35 points against Huntingdon. The defense will have its hands full once again against running back Vontre Howard and the Monarchs.	Frank’s take: Gettysburg (at Juniata). Juniata has had an inconsistent path this season, making the Week 5 win before the bye potentially lead to a Week 7 loss, if the trend continues.	Greg’s take: Allegheny. The Gators’ first half schedule was tough, but I’m not sure 0-5 is how most saw the Rich Nagy era starting. Kenyon has been a good first half story, but I think it is Allegheny’s turn to notch a win.

We invite you to add your predictions in the comments below. Download the Around the Nation podcast on Fridays, where Pat and Keith review the Quick Hits that were prescient, and the Quick Misses that were terribly off base.

Around the Nation Podcast 225: Just good enough

Posted on November 19, 2018 by Pat Coleman

Keith McMillan pleaded for a first round of the playoffs that didn’t stink. And he got it, if nothing else, because his alma mater, Randolph-Macon, upset John Carroll.

Now, your mileage may have varied. With a margin of victory of nearly 34 points on average, these were not great games. With a near quadruple monkey stomp and several other games that looked like the usual top seed vs. No. 8 seed contests, there weren’t many worth watching for a neutral Division III fan. Unless, of course, you hooked into the Randolph-Macon win, or St. Norbert’s upset of Trine, or Muhlenberg’s dramatic finish at Delaware Valley.

Hear highlights from Saturday, postgame commentary from teams advancing to the Round of 16, and more in the D3football.com Around the Nation Podcast.

The D3football.com Around the Nation Podcast is a regular conversation between Pat Coleman and Keith McMillan and guests covering the wide range of Division III football.

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Link: Our full NCAA playoff coverage
Mentioned in the podcast: Defense lights UW-Whitewater’s fire, feature by Joe Sager

Photo: Eric Hoy needs several John Carroll defenders to bring him down. (John Carroll athletics photo)

Theme music: DJmentos.

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Quick Hits: Predicting the first-round scores

Posted on November 16, 2018 by Pat Coleman

The story goes, one day on a long ride to a playoff game at Thiel (which tells you how long ago this happened), Pat and Keith decided to pass the time by guessing not just the winner of each first-round playoff game, but the score. And there was born the expectations game: Do we expect a close game? A high-scoring game? A blowout? Does everyone agree on who will win? Those are the factors worth looking at.

Keith McMillan, Ryan Tipps, Pat Coleman, Adam Turer, Frank Rossi and Greg Thomas each take their guesses at scores for each first-round game. Plus, we have Logan Hansen’s odds to advance and at the bottom, a widget you can manipulate to get details on all 32 teams and compare teams head-to-head in a multitude of categories.

— Pat Coleman (d3photography.com photo)

Mary Hardin-Baylor bracket
Keith’s take: UMHB 34, Hardin-Simmons 10 Ryan’s take: UMHB 31, Hardin-Simmons 14 Pat’s take: UMHB 34, Hardin-Simmons 7	Adam’s take: UMHB 38, Hardin-Simmons 17 Frank’s take: UMHB 44, Hardin-Simmons 10 Greg’s take: UMHB 35, Hardin-Simmons 10
Hansen odds to advance: UMHB, 93.7% Consensus: Strong consensus for a Mary Hardin-Baylor win, of around five scores to two.
Keith’s take: Berry 34, Maryville 10 Ryan’s take: Berry 34, Maryville 13 Pat’s take: Berry 35, Maryville 10	Adam’s take: Berry 31, Maryville 13 Frank’s take: Berry 37, Maryville 30 Greg’s take: Berry 28, Maryville 20
Hansen odds to advance: Berry, 70.8% Consensus: The first meeting was 38-3 and the second meeting isn’t expected to be much different.
Keith’s take: St. John’s 56, Martin Luther 0 Ryan’s take: St. John’s 52, Martin Luther 7 Pat’s take: St. John’s 62, Martin Luther 8	Adam’s take: St. John’s 63, Martin Luther 0 Frank’s take: St. John’s 54, Martin Luther 7 Greg’s take: St. John’s 58, Martin Luther 7
Hansen odds to advance: St. John’s, 100.0% Consensus: St. John’s in a runaway.
Keith’s take: Whitworth 21, C-M-S 17 Ryan’s take: Whitworth 45, C-M-S 6 Pat’s take: Whitworth 24, C-M-S 6	Adam’s take: Whitworth 35, C-M-S 3 Frank’s take: Whitworth 49, C-M-S 14 Greg’s take: Whitworth 31, C-M-S 10
Hansen odds to advance: Whitworth, 92.1% Consensus: Wide range of scores by which Whitworth is expected to advance.

UW-Whitewater bracket
Keith’s take: UW-Whitewater 49, Eureka 6 Ryan’s take: UW-Whitewater 52, Eureka 10 Pat’s take: UW-Whitewater 58, Eureka 12	Adam’s take: UW-Whitewater 42, Eureka 6 Frank’s take: UW-Whitewater 41, Eureka 3 Greg’s take: UW-Whitewater 48, Eureka 7
Hansen odds to advance: UW-Whitewater, 99.9% Consensus: Whitewater by a lot.
Keith’s take: Trine 27, St. Norbert 17 Ryan’s take: St. Norbert 24, Trine 17 Pat’s take: Trine 42, St. Norbert 16	Adam’s take: St. Norbert 20, Trine 17 Frank’s take: Trine 37, St. Norbert 27 Greg’s take: Trine 28, St. Norbert 27
Hansen odds to advance: Trine, 70.5% Consensus: A split decision favoring Trine, but by varying margins.
Keith’s take: North Central 35, Hanover 14 Ryan’s take: North Central 48, Hanover 7 Pat’s take: North Central 51, Hanover 14	Adam’s take: North Central 56, Hanover 13 Frank’s take: North Central 47, Hanover 10 Greg’s take: North Central 40, Hanover 17
Hansen odds to advance: North Central, 98.3% Consensus: North Central advancing easily.
Keith’s take: Bethel 28, Wartburg 17 Ryan’s take: Bethel 31, Wartburg 23 Pat’s take: Wartburg 24, Bethel 13	Adam’s take: Bethel 28, Wartburg 17 Frank’s take: Wartburg 27, Bethel 24 Greg’s take: Wartburg 17, Bethel 14
Hansen odds to advance: Bethel, 67.2% Consensus: A pure 50-50 split decision which is likely headed for a recount.

Mount Union bracket
Keith’s take: Mount Union 49, Denison 21 Ryan’s take: Mount Union 63, Denison 7 Pat’s take: Mount Union 28, Denison 10	Adam’s take: Mount Union 49, Denison 20 Frank’s take: Mount Union 67, Denison 3 Greg’s take: Mount Union 42, Denison 14
Hansen odds to advance: Mount Union, 98.7% Consensus: Mount Union wins in a day which is a struggle for the Denison offense.
Keith’s take: Centre 28, W&J 27 Ryan’s take: Centre 38, W&J 31 Pat’s take: W&J 34, Centre 24	Adam’s take: Centre 31, W&J 24 Frank’s take: Centre 37, W&J 34 Greg’s take: Centre 28, W&J 24
Hansen odds to advance: Centre, 76.7% Consensus: Non-unanimous consensus that Centre wins one of the best games of the day.
Keith’s take: John Carroll 41, Randolph-Macon 17 Ryan’s take: John Carroll 49, Randolph-Macon 13 Pat’s take: John Carroll 42, Randolph-Macon 14	Adam’s take: John Carroll 42, Randolph-Macon 16 Frank’s take: John Carroll 40, Randolph-Macon 13 Greg’s take: John Carroll 35, Randolph-Macon 17
Hansen odds to advance: John Carroll, 85.4% Consensus: John Carroll winning easily.
Keith: Muhlenberg 23, Delaware Valley 20 Ryan: Muhlenberg 28, Delaware Valley 27 Pat: Muhlenberg 34, Delaware Valley 17	Adam: Muhlenberg 35, Delaware Valley 32 Frank: Muhlenberg 34, Delaware Valley 31 Greg: Muhlenberg 31, Delaware Valley 28
Hansen odds to advance: Muhlenberg, 56.0%, the lowest odds of any predicted winner. Consensus: Unanimous picks of road teams are rare, but note that five of the six pick margins of three or less.

Brockport bracket
Keith’s take: Brockport 35, Framingham St. 7 Ryan’s take: Brockport 49, Framingham St. 10 Pat’s take: Brockport 48, Framingham St. 10	Adam’s take: Brockport 38, Framingham St. 6 Frank’s take: Brockport 42, Framingham St. 10 Greg’s take: Brockport 42, Framingham St. 13
Hansen odds to advance: Brockport, 97.7% Consensus: Brockport moving on in the style of their choosing.
Keith’s take: Husson 10, RPI 9 Ryan’s take: RPI 23, Husson 21 Pat’s take: RPI 30, Husson 17	Adam’s take: RPI 24, Husson 20 Frank’s take: RPI 30, Husson 27 Greg’s take: RPI 20, Husson 10
Hansen odds to advance: RPI, 62.6% Consensus: RPI in a non-unanimous game that’s generally expected to be close.
Keith’s take: Frostburg St. 42, Western N.E. 14 Ryan’s take: Frostburg St. 42, Western N.E. 10 Pat’s take: Frostburg St. 45, Western N.E. 10	Adam’s take: Frostburg St. 45, Western N.E. 10 Frank’s take: Frostburg St. 44, Western N.E. 14 Greg’s take: Frostburg St. 38, Western N.E. 7
Hansen odds to advance: Frostburg State, 92.4% Consensus: Frostburg advancing with ease.
Keith’s take: Johns Hopkins 42, MIT 10 Ryan’s take: Johns Hopkins 45, MIT 7 Pat’s take: Johns Hopkins 45, MIT 16	Adam’s take: Johns Hopkins 43, MIT 14 Frank’s take: Johns Hopkins 35, MIT 17 Greg’s take: Johns Hopkins 38, MIT 10
Hansen odds to advance: Johns Hopkins, 96.8% Consensus: Johns Hopkins winning the brainiac bowl.

We invite you to add your predictions in the comments below, or tweet at us at @D3Keith, @NewsTipps, @d3football, @adamturer, @frankrossi and @wallywabash. Download the Around the Nation podcast on Mondays, where Pat and Keith review the picks and the highlights from the weekend’s playoff games.