ATN Podcast: Wide-open conferences

Posted on September 26, 2011 by Pat Coleman

So far Birmingham-Southern (and running back Joseph Moultrie) have made Keith’s preseason prediction look pretty good.
Birmingham-Southern athletics photo by Cari Dean

If it wasn’t on your radar before, Dubuque better be now. Similarly Birmingham-Southern. And definitely Louisiana College. But Muskingum? Augsburg? UW-Oshkosh?

For all of the expected that happened on Saturday, Mount Union rolling, Mary Hardin-Baylor beating Hardin-Simmons, etc., there was plenty of unexpected. And Keith McMillan and Pat Coleman talk about both in this week’s Around the Nation podcast. Hear what they think about the upcoming clash between UMHB and Louisiana College, about the Iowa Conference race, the Empire 8 and the SCAC. Does UW-Platteville or UW-Oshkosh have a shot to knock off Whitewater? How many tangents will Pat and Keith go on in this 56 minutes of Division III football analysis? And how many times will they project out the rest of the regular season and talk playoffs?

For a better indication of how many teams they talk about each week, check the tags list at the bottom of the file.

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Plus, here’s the first look at this week’s D3reports, as well as Division III football highlight reels. These will also appear on the front page on Monday afternoon.

Triple Take, Hump week

Posted on October 8, 2010 by ryantipps

Conference races are at full steam, unbeaten teams are still falling at a good clip, and players are beginning to get glimpses of the playoff pastures on the horizon.

It’s Week 6, the midpoint of our 11-week regular season.

So much happened on the field last Saturday that we’re left to pick up the pieces and make sense of what’s to come. That’s what we’re here for, after all. It’s done in the Around the Nation podcast, it’s done again for the national and regional columns, and to cap the week, it’s broken down for you here in Triple Take.

Pat Coleman, Keith McMillan and Ryan Tipps crunch the numbers before predicting how they will all add up this Saturday.

Game of the Week.
Ryan’s take: Hampden-Sydney at Bridgewater. Going off script from the Top 25 a bit here, but last week, we saw the first of the ODAC’s four undefeated teams fall. This week, we’ll see yet another. The Tigers have been uncaged all season, with quality wins against Averett, N.C. Wesleyan and Salisbury. The Eagles, however, have reached 4-0 in less convincing fashion and will need their defense to step up if they don’t want to get clipped. This week we will see clarity in the highly balanced ODAC. To top things off, Bridgewater’s Stone Station, one of the best tailgate crews in the country, will have their grills fired up and ready to go.
Keith’s take: No. 23 St. John’s at Bethel. The buildup to the Tommie-Johnnie game would have almost lead you to believe the MIAC is a two-horse race, with one having fallen a step behind. Yet the Royals are unbeaten, have always given St. John’s fits and have a 16-14 loss in 2009 that ended on a 49-yard field goal to avenge. Bethel brings into the clash the nation’s third-best run defense (36 yards/game, while the Johnnies rush for 189 per). There are no clashes of ranked teams this week, but this game comes as close as any.
Pat’s take: No. 7 North Central at Augustana. Augustana has quietly put together a strong early season. The loss in a close game to Central is a “good loss” by all accounts, although last week’s last-minute win against Millikin nearly derailed this showdown. So far the Vikings have performed pretty much as one would have expected against their schedule; this game will tell whether they will contend for the CCIW title.

Surprisingly close game.
Ryan’s take: McMurry at Sul Ross State. The Lobos are 1-2, yet still average 468 yards per game. That barely seems plausible. We’ll see how that figure stacks up once they go against 3-2 McMurry, a team that has blown out weak competition and has a statistically stout defense. To win, that defense will have to do something few teams have been able to do this year: get pressure on Sul Ross State quarterback Monty Morales.
Keith’s take: SUNY-Maritime at Castleton State. Each side is suddenly winning more than expected. The Privateers (5-0) are harboring playoff hopes and Castleton (2-2) seems uninterested in being a second-year program happy the losses aren’t worse. As the last two teams unbeaten in ECFC play, each 2-0, Saturday’s winner gets the conference lead and a chance to begin polishing its resume for an at-large playoff selection (no ECFC automatic bid yet). So there’s plenty reason to believe this could be a shootout. Here’s another: SUNY-Maritime rushes for 329 yards per game, fifth best nationally. The Spartans pass for 335 a game, sixth nationally.
Pat’s take: No. 17 UW-Eau Claire at UW-Platteville. The Blugolds have had a tendency to drop a puzzling game over the past years (2007 and 2008 vs. UW-River Falls, for example). Teams know not to take anyone in the WIAC lightly, but perhaps Eau Claire might get caught with an eye ahead to next week’s game against UW-Whitewater and take a little while to put the Pioneers away.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset.
Ryan’s take: No. 20 St. John Fisher. Fisher’s offensive balance will likely present a mighty challenge for opponent Ithaca on Saturday. But the Bombers have been playing well enough to stand at 4-1, and if they harness their ability to force turnovers (plus-10 on the season), they will be a threat.
Keith’s take: No. 13 Ohio Northern. Capital’s given up 92 points the past two weeks. ONU scored none last week against No. 2 Mount Union. Could be a recipe for a get-right game (see below), since the Polar Bears will be expecting to score early and often. But if it doesn’t start off well, ONU might begin to press. And bad things happen when teams press, or worry too early in the game about the score.
Pat’s take: None. At least, not other than the aforementioned St. John Fisher. I pondered the likelihood of Whittier taking down Cal Lutheran, and I look forward to the Bethel-St. John’s game but not sure Bethel winning would be much of an upset other than in the eyes of our poll.

They’ll be on your radar.
Ryan’s take: Oberlin. At 3:50 last Saturday afternoon, just seven points separated the Yeomen from a feat that hasn’t been accomplished in more than 50 years: beating Wittenberg — let alone a Top 10-ranked Wittenberg. Suddenly we’re apt to stand up and take notice of Oberlin’s game against undefeated Case Western Reserve. I don’t know that the Yeomen could pull off the upset, but last week’s result suggests it’s possible. To top it off, just two weeks ago, Oberlin set a school record with 622 yards of offense in a game. It’s been a few years since we saw an Oberlin team this good.
Keith’s take: LaGrange. The trip to Trine (Georgia to Indiana) is a rare distance for a D-III road game, and it’s an odd time for a non-conference clash, at least for the team here who’s in a conference. The Panthers, who are making their fourth consecutive road appearance,have shown some flashes, including in a win against Millsaps, so I’m curious how they stack up with Trine, which might be rising higher in the poll than its competition to date (5-13 combined) should warrant. A solid double-digit win for Trine would draw virtually no attention nationally, which is probably fine by the Thunder.
Pat’s take: Bethel. The Royals’ non-conference schedule didn’t show much, with wins against Simpson and Concordia (Wis.) not proving much. (Simpson’s 1-4 start doesn’t help Bethel one bit.) Victories at Carleton and St. Olaf are a little more telling, but hosting St. John’s this week will finally give the voters the info they need to do something with Bethel.

Which of last week’s big showdown winners will struggle the most with its Week 6 opponent?
Ryan’s take: Franklin, who is hosting Rose-Hulman. The Grizzlies are coming off of steamrolling conference rival Mount St. Joseph. This week, Rose may not pose the challenge they did last year, when they were one of only two teams in the HCAC to beat Franklin, but Rose does have a solid corps of linebackers to keep the Grizzlies honest in the run game. Franklin will be forced to pass, something they admittedly do quite well.
Keith’s take: No. 20 St. John Fisher, who is hosting Ithaca. If only because the Cardinals are the from last week’s dozen ATN-worthy clashes who has a tougher opponent this week.
Pat’s take: No. 22 Cal Lutheran, at Whittier. Whittier is just 1-2, but played Occidental competitively last week and Cal Lutheran isn’t the same team that beat Linfield, not without Daniel Mosier, who ran for 202 yards against the Wildcats but has left the team for personal reasons.

Which team is going to rebound the best after suffering its first loss of the year last week?
Ryan’s take: Ohio Northern. We’ve known for a long time that Mount Union can make even great teams look like JV squads. After getting shut out by The Machine last week, the Polar Bears are going up against Capital. Capital may not be as strong or as intimidating as in other recent years, but a win over Capital still means something. And it will give ONU the right kind of momentum before hosting Baldwin-Wallace on Oct. 16.
Keith’s take: Mount St. Joseph. So much of football is psychological, and the mind matters beyond the three hours of game time on Saturday. The Lions were humbled against Franklin, and if there’s one good thing that can from from getting your butts whipped, it’s that it ignites the competitive spirit. I’d be stunned if MSJ didn’t have one of its best weeks of practice this week. That’s bad news for host Defiance.
Pat’s take: Illinois Wesleyan. Keith mentioned the concept of the “get right” game earlier and nothing fits the bill like a home game against North Park. We’ll have to wait until next week when the Titans host Elmhurst before we really learn how Illinois Wesleyan bounces back from the loss to Wheaton.

Which game will be least like last year’s matchup?
Ryan’s take: Lycoming at Albright. The Warriors have shed their dreary 2009 image and are able to pound the rock time and time again. This year they punish defenses; last year produced little more than a tickle in that regard. Albright, on the other hand, is playing better than I expected they could without some of last year’s playmakers, but it’s unlikely they’ll cruise to the 26-7 victory we saw last season. Hitch yourself to the Lycoming wagon on Saturday.
Keith’s take: Union at Hobart. Usually a matchup with playoff and top 25 implications, both teams have a loss, are coming off underwhelming games and need to win to keep pace in the competitive-by-default Liberty League. The Statesmen are coming off rare consecutive losses.
Pat’s take: Mississippi College at No. 5 Mary Hardin-Baylor. Last year, the Cru scored a season-low 14 points as the Choctaws beat them 17-14. The Crusaders might not have all of their questions answered but they are certainly putting points on the board this season, and if you like to play the comparative scores game, Hardin-Simmons lost to UMHB 42-28 but beat Mississippi College 45-10.

Triple Take: As many questions as answers

Posted on October 1, 2010 by ryantipps

Got a sense of the Division III landscape yet? Hopefully, now that we’re going into Week 5, the picture is getting a little clearer.

While we all see a lot, we don’t yet see it all. Folks might be unsure of whether Mount Union can again run the table in the OAC or whether Linfield’s debut loss was a fluke. We might also be wondering about the teams at the other end of the spectrum: Has the luster faded from Christopher Newport, or can Lebanon Valley salvage its season? We are armed with so many answers, but there are still many questions out there to target.

D3football.com Executive Editor Pat Coleman, Managing Editor Keith McMillan and Senior Editor Ryan Tipps have some things to say about the weekend ahead and which teams have something unique to watch out for.

Game of the Week.
Ryan’s take: No. 15 Willamette at No. 16 Linfield. The Wildcats began the year at No. 4 before falling unexpectedly in their opener to Cal Lutheran. Willamette, likewise, is a one-loss team that joins Linfield as the favorites in the NWC. This could turn ugly if Aaron Boehme is able to throw the ball with impunity against a Bearcats team that isn’t great against the pass. Willamette is keen on forcing turnovers, and giving their “fly” offense a short field will be important to ultimately taking control of the conference.
Pat’s take: No. 4 St. Thomas at No. 19 St. John’s. I am sure it’s alright if I pick the game I’m going to be at, considering that it’s likely that 15,000 people will be there with me. St. Thomas has lost 12 of these games in a row (also known as, hasn’t beaten St. John’s in the D3football.com era), and although there have been a few close ones in that stretch, I’m not sure last year should be one of them. St. Thomas was out of the game when two fourth-quarter special teams mistakes by St. John’s got them back in. The 15-for-31 passing sounds better than it is — even completed passes were off-target and left receivers in no position to do anything after the catch. Good news for St. Thomas is the alternating quarterbacks thing is done, but the bad news is Ben Wartman has been banged up and hasn’t played an entire game this year. Last year some of the Tommies looked a little rattled by the massive crowd in Collegeville. Perhaps the experience of three playoff games, two on the road, will give St. Thomas some perspective to draw on. Looking at a defensive battle.
Keith’s take: No. 8 Ohio Northern at No. 2 Mount Union . According to the order set in my look at 12 of this weekend’s top clashes in Around the Nation, I should choose No. 18 UW-Eau Claire at UW-Stevens Point here (only because Tipps already took the No. 1 game). And clearly the Blugolds and Pointers have the most at stake. But for sheer talent on the field, and gravity of a potential upset, Alliance may be Saturday’s epicenter.

Surprisingly close game.
Ryan’s take: Elmhurst at North Park. Define “surprisingly close” however you’d like, but the two-win Vikings won’t play into the CCIW whipping-boy role against Elmhurst. Not only is North Park winning some this year, but they’re just flat out playing better football. Undefeated Elmhurst is having a stellar year as well, but it’s easy to believe it could be caught looking ahead a little to the Wheaton game on Oct. 9.
Pat’s take: Carthage at No. 10 North Central (Ill.). I’ll stay in the CCIW here. Carthage has played really well on offense of late. North Central will provide a stiffer test on defense than Franklin, Lakeland and Concordia (Wis.) have so far, but Carthage has a good amount of offense to bring to the table.
Keith’s take: John Carroll at Otterbein. The Blue Streaks opened their season with losses to Case Western Reserve and Mount Union, making them look worse than they are. (they give up 433 yards a game, for instance). Otterbein, which beat Heidelberg by a point in its last game. began the season ranked.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset.
Ryan’s take: No. 18 UW-Eau Claire. Is this the easy pick as most any game between WIAC teams could go either way on any given Saturday? Perhaps. Aside from a Week 1 loss against Willamette, UW-Stevens Point has been charging ahead with a run-by-committee approach to offense. Eau Claire has clearly battle-tested itself against some great nonconference teams, but the “W” in Wisconsin will be fueled by how peppy the Blugolds feel after last week’s loss to North Central.
Pat’s take: No. 17 Montclair State. But wow, was I tempted to take a rare opportunity to put Mount Union in this space. When does one really have the chance to do that? I think, however, that Montclair State has drifted a little high in the rankings. Kean at home under the lights, looking to make up for its season-opening loss to Cortland State, has plenty of motivation, even if there’s no bad blood anymore.
Keith’s take: No. 23 Cal Lutheran. There are at least four top 25 teams who will lose clashes against other ranked opponents, and a couple more facing teams that are or should be receiving votes. The Kingsmen have a dangerous Redlands team to worry about, one led by sixth-year quarterback Dan Selway, who has not been sacked and hasn’t had his best game. The Bulldogs defense has given up 17 points in two games against decent opponents (East Texas Baptist, Whitworth).

They’ll be on your radar.
Ryan’s take: FDU-Florham. The Devils aren’t a team that I notice a lot on an annual basis, but here they are, 3-0, already with as many wins as they’ve had in any season since 2005. A big test will come this weekend when they open conference play against Widener. Florham is the only undefeated team in the MAC. It’ll be interesting if they can stay that way.
Pat’s take: Birmingham-Southern. The Panthers aren’t yet eligible for the SCAC title or a playoff bid (or the D3football.com Top 25) but they are 3-0 heading into a home game against Trinity (Texas).
Keith’s take: Ripon. The Red Hawks’ triple-option has hummed to the tune of 322 yards per game in a 4-0 start, while Saturday’s opponent, Knox, isn’t in the nation’s top 200 in any offensive or defensive category. Ripon shouldn’t lose, but part of being a conference leader is putting away the teams you should beat.

Which conference race will get the most clarity after Saturday?
Ryan’s take: The ODAC’s. Emory and Henry hosts Randolph-Macon, and both enter 4-0. On paper, few teams come across as more evenly matched. Offensively and defensively, E&H and R-MC are among the top three statistically in the conference. And they have similar lopsided scores against a common opponent. As I pointed to in this week’s Around the Mid-Atlantic, the ODAC is living under the perception of parity. With two undefeated teams squaring off, we’ll see how that perception plays out.
Pat’s take: The OAC. Well, I mean, it’s certainly possible Mount Union doesn’t win the league outright. It’s happened in current players’ lifetimes. But even if it doesn’t happen, we’ll know the road map a lot better after the Mount Union-Ohio Northern game.
Keith’s take: The NEFC. The CCIW and ODAC pictures will clear up a bit, but both sides of the NEFC have surprise leaders in big clashes this weekend. In Kickoff ’10, I thought Endicott might usurp Curry in the Boyd, and they each head into their meeting this week at 3-1. The Colonels might not yet be ready to end their run of dominance; they’ve allowed just seven points against D-III teams, while the Gulls have played three close games. On the Bogan side, favored Maine Maritime is rushing for a national-best 488 yards per game but gave up 46 points last week in a surprising loss to Fitchburg State, after winning their first two by shutout. The Mariners try to bounce back against Worcester State, a bit of a surprise at 3-1. Framingham State is also unexpectedly 3-1, and faces 2-2 Mass. Maritime.

Which team with a conference loss can help itself the most?
Ryan’s take: Norwich. The Cadets dealt the Empire 8 its first loss of the season in nonconference play and then fell in the ECFC opener by one point to Mount Ida. Too many drives died before they even got started. This weekend at Becker starts a stretch of four games against teams that are currently a combined 1-13 against Division III opponents. Using this time to shore up their game and eliminate mistakes will open up opportunities before they line up against SUNY-Maritime.
Pat’s take: Hardin-Simmons. The Cowboys can’t let down against an East Texas Baptist team that has already taken down UW-La Crosse and came out and surprised McMurry last week. Yes, last week’s loss to Mary Hardin-Baylor probably puts the Cowboys out of the ASC race, but there’s still a lot of season left and Hardin-Simmons needs to win the final six games.
Keith’s take: Lewis & Clark. The Pioneers aren’t ready to contend, but hosting Pacific, in its first year back on the field, is an opportunity to pick up a second win this early for the first time since 2003. As the program begins a rise, it can’t really afford to fall to the Boxers.

What team really needs a morale win this weekend?
Ryan’s take: Both Christopher Newport and Shenandoah. And these teams happen to play each other on Saturday. The Captains are off to the worst start in the young history of their program. And for a team that has spent a lot of its seasons in the playoffs, 2010 has to be hard to digest. But the win they need isn’t necessarily the win they’ll get. Even in CNU’s best years, Shenandoah has historically played this game tough. The Hornets were thought to be entering a season of improvement over last year, when they lost six games by a field goal or less. However, SU, as well as CNU, are winless this season, and both are coming off a bye week to get their act together.
Pat’s take: Hamline. I’m not going to say our expectations for Hamline were high this year but we did picture a .500 season. Instead, the Pipers are 0-3 and after getting trashed at home by Carleton last week, a team that had lost to Crown, a loss to Macalester has to be considered a distinct possibility.
Keith’s take: Occidental. Interim coach Eric Bergstrom has the Tigers off to a 1-1 start, but coach Dale Widolff is suspended until Oct. 10 and the team hasn’t played since Sept. 11. In the Myron Claxton’s Shoes Game vs. Whittier, Occidental could very much use a victory to rally around. Limiting the Poets’ run game (269.5 yards per in a 1-1 start) is a key.