ATN Podcast: Too soon to panic

St. John's
St. John’s got routed at home in Week 2, but it’s not over for the Johnnies yet.
St. John’s athletics file photo

That was a butt-kicking that St. John’s got, at home, on Saturday when UW-Eau Claire came in and beat the Johnnies 47-19. But although that loss is certainly demoralizing, as was Coe’s at Olivet Nazarene and even Wesley’s at Kean, this week isn’t the end of anyone’s season. Pat Coleman and Keith McMillan talk through what’s left in front of them and what teams with an early loss have cost themselves in this week’s Around the Nation Podcast.

Plus, many other teams and games are touched on — see the tags at the bottom for an idea of who is discussed.

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After the SCAC shuffle, what’s next?


Trinity athletics photo

Analysis
As a football conference in the Division III model, the SCAC never made sense. The geographic footprint, from Colorado to Indiana to Alabama to Texas, created a demand on travel costs that small-college budgets usually find unnecessary.

Colorado College realized this and abruptly dropped football after the 2008 season. But they weren’t the only outlier. Rose-Hulman left after the 2006 season to join the HCAC, which is Indiana and Ohio-based. DePauw, finding a group of schools with similar academic cache in closer proximity, decided this year to join Indiana rival Wabash in the NCAC, beginning in 2012.

That left seven football members behind in the SCAC, enough to maintain its automatic bid to the 32-team playoff field. Schools from coast to coast – LaGrange, Cornell and Chapman – announced new conference affiliations this offseason. But nothing shakes up the national picture like seven schools withdrawing from a 12-school conference; of the seven football-playing members, five are forming a new conference that will require less travel but would need to add two football programs and then wait two years to get an automatic bid. Trinity and Austin retain the SCAC name and history but need five football-playing members — and two “core” members in all sports — to keep their AQ.

The SCAC has been very explicit in news stories and press releases that it intends to continue on, and potential new members have been contacted.

Who exactly might those be? What ripple effects can Division III expect?

With the remaining SCAC schools mostly Texas-based, this would seem to be a ripe opportunity for any school in the ASC that feels it either isn’t competitive or wants to align itself with Trinity and Austin (which left the ASC and took Rose-Hulman’s place in the SCAC) to make the leap. Texas Lutheran comes to mind, while Howard Payne and East Texas Baptist wouldn’t be total shocks.

It also means any NAIA school, particularly those in the Mid-South Conference and perhaps the KCAC, which eyes the NCAA’s financial stability has its opening. There are also four NAIA schools in Oklahoma, two independents in Florida and another independent, Southern Virginia, which has expressed interest in moving to Division III. Those schools might not all fit in the SCAC, but might come into play if teams begin shuffling their affiliations.

Centenary (La.) has moved from Division I to III, and joined the ASC, but doesn’t yet offer football.

Then of course, there’s the obvious: Huntingdon, one of the last football independents in D-III, has eagerly sought out a conference. The Hawks joined the SLIAC for one season, then the conference dropped football. The SCAC-7 (those schools that just broke off from the SCAC) appear to have not been interested in the Hawks, but the SCAC-5 might take them out of necessity. They’d be a core member.

That’s an example of the tough spot the SCAC is in. With 50 years of history and a reputation for academic prestige, the conference – whose commissioner of 16 years, Dwyane Hanberry, is staying on – would probably like to maintain how it is perceived. We might hear a lot of talk about being “excited for the future” or schools that “fit the SCAC profile,” but from an outsider’s view, it’s hard to see how the SCAC-5 isn’t desperate.

The SCAC-5, remember, has just two football schools. Colorado College recently dropped the sport, and Southwestern and U. of Dallas don’t seem to be on track to add it. Huntingdon would be a third. If the SCAC stole more than two from the nine-member ASC, then that conference’s automatic bid would be in jeopardy.

The odd thing is Division III had narrowed itself down to just three football independents, and only two with scheduling problems. Huntingdon is one. Wesley, which is a competitive fit for the NJAC but as a private school can’t afford to play by that conference’s rules, such as 100-player roster limits, might look to revive talks of football in its all-sports conference, the CAC. The third, Macalester, is independent by choice, having left the MIAC in the early part of the decade. The St. Paul-based school also has 14 potential opponents in Minnesota, plus dozens more nearby in Iowa and Illinois.

A former independent, LaGrange already made its move this offseason, to the USAC, where former football-only affiliate Maryville and non-football Piedmont joined this offseason, All three were members of the GSAC in other sports. Shenandoah announced plans to leave the USAC for the ODAC in all sports –- citing reduced travel as a reason – last fall.

The USAC moves leave few Division III schools in the south looking to move. A GSAC/SCAC-5 merger doesn’t make much sense for football because of the four women’s schools and the distance from Southwest Virginia to Colorado. Rust (Holly Springs, Miss.) is in no shape to add the sport.

The USAC might not have seen its last shuffle either. Averett, N.C. Wesleyan and Christopher Newport could join Wesley in the CAC, which currently doesn’t sponsor football. Salisbury and Frostburg State, which joined the Empire 8 as a football-only affiliates for access to an automatic bid and because Norwich had left the E8 one member short, could come back home and give the CAC six football playing members. Two sources have told D3sports.com that Neumann (Pa.) is considering adding football, which could be a potential seventh, as could Marymount (Va.) if it added the sport. Catholic, a former member of the CAC, competes in the ODAC for football and the non-football Landmark conference for other sports.

Another potential seventh member, Stevenson, which plays its first football game this season, recently left the CAC for the MAC.

So why all the movement?

First, access to automatic bids, especially in sports like football where at-large bids are scarce, is key. But schools prefer being in conferences for ease of scheduling, formation of natural rivalries, an enhanced athletic experience (i.e. all-conference awards, etc.) and association. Schools like being aligned with certain peers, because of the perceptions it creates.

The SCAC certainly did that. But perhaps the main reason Division III schools like their conferences are something the SCAC-5 still doesn’t care about: containing travel costs.

That would open the door for Westminster (Utah), an NAIA member whose name was mentioned in The Colorado Springs Gazette as a potential member. They’d be the third Westminster in D-III, joining the ones in Missouri (UMAC) and Pennsylanvia (PAC).

If Trinity and Austin can’t save the SCAC’s football automatic bid, they might be forced elsewhere to look for affliate membership. Or, they could dangle their bid and entice others – perhaps the four schools in the UAA (Case Western Reserve, Chicago, Carnegie Mellon and Wash U.) could join to create a who-cares-about-travel-costs football league. It certainly would be prestigious, but it would need a seventh member to keep the AQ.

The perfect seventh member, Rochester, figured something out long ago. Flying a football team across the country four or five times a season is cost-prohibitive. The Yellowjackets, a member of the UAA in other sports, are in the New York-based Liberty League for football.

Triple Take: First-round scores

Rob Kues
In a battle of two run-oriented teams, Thomas More’s Rob Kues has nonetheless completed more passes than Washington and Lee has even attempted.

The NCAA brass has gotten out its erasers and given 32 teams a clean slate.

Our expectations are put to the ultimate tests as champions and runners-up of top conferences clash with those of their weaker counterparts. We see where the parities and disparities lie — within geographic reason, of course.

And no season is without its Cinderella stories: Johns Hopkins in 2009, Franklin in ’08, Bethel in ’07, etc. It’s the unexpected — the flashes of greatness that players show during playoff time — that captivates us. Every year, we keep our ears to the ground hoping to hear yet another underdog make some noise.

From now until the third weekend in December, Pat Coleman, Keith McMillan and Ryan Tipps will not only pick the winners of games, but we’ll also project the scores. It’s a transparent test of our perceptions week in and week out.

These postseason Triple Take predictions are not intended to be lines on the games, but rather a broad test of outcome vs. expectations.

Wesley Bracket
Ryan: Wesley 30, Muhlenberg 7
Pat: Wesley 42, Muhlenberg 10
Keith: Wesley 37, Muhlenberg 10

Ryan: Hampden-Sydney 21, Montclair State 17
Pat: Hampden-Sydney 28, Montclair State 10
Keith: Hampden-Sydney 17, Montclair State 14

Ryan: Washington and Lee 31, Thomas More 24
Pat: Thomas More 45, Washington and Lee 42
Keith: Washington and Lee 26, Thomas More 23

Ryan: Mary Hardin-Baylor 45, Christopher Newport 21
Pat: Mary Hardin-Baylor 56, Christopher Newport 14
Keith: Mary Hardin-Baylor 42, Christopher Newport 7

St. Thomas Bracket
Ryan: St. Thomas 48, Benedictine 10
Pat: St. Thomas 61, Benedictine 7
Keith: St. Thomas 49, Benedictine 0

Ryan: Linfield 35, Cal Lutheran 24
Pat: Linfield 35, Cal Lutheran 24
Keith: Linfield 34, Cal Lutheran 27

Ryan: Wartburg 20, Bethel 17
Pat: Bethel 13, Wartburg 10
Keith: Wartburg 14, Bethel 13

Ryan: Coe 38, Wheaton 34
Pat: Wheaton 34, Coe 30
Keith: Wheaton 27, Coe 24

Mount Union Bracket
Ryan: Mount Union 56, St. Lawrence 3
Pat: Mount Union 63, St. Lawrence 0
Keith: Mount Union 63, St. Lawrence 0

Ryan: Delaware Valley 20, Salisbury 14
Pat: Salisbury 45, Delaware Valley 42
Keith: Salisbury 22, Delaware Valley 21

Ryan: SUNY-Maritime 28, Alfred 21
Pat: Alfred 31, SUNY-Maritime 8
Keith: Alfred 28, SUNY-Maritime 21

Ryan: Cortland State 38, Endicott 7
Pat: Cortland State 20, Endicott 3
Keith: Cortland State 27, Endicott 9

North Central Bracket
Ryan: North Central 42, St. Norbert 13
Pat: North Central 45, St. Norbert 10
Keith: North Central 44, St. Norbert 17

Ryan: Ohio Northern 23, Wittenberg 14
Pat: Ohio Northern 41, Wittenberg 21
Keith: Ohio Northern 27, Wittenberg 17

Ryan: Trine 35, DePauw 20
Pat: DePauw 21, Trine 17
Keith: Trine 35, DePauw 21

Ryan: UW-Whitewater 48, Franklin 14
Pat: UW-Whitewater 50, Franklin 21
Keith: UW-Whitewater 45, Franklin 13