The final Wednesday of the regular season is in the books! We had key conference matchups playing out while the UEC opened up its league tournament, and we’re now 10 days away from the final day of games before the NCAA Tournament field is announced. It’s hard to believe the season has flown by like this! As always, here’s a recap/breakdown of last night’s action across the country, which had several key results in the Midwest.

Regular Season Title Clinchers
Concordia Moorhead continued its stellar run down the stretch of MIAC play, winning its seventh straight in dominant fashion over St. Olaf, 83-57. It secured the MIAC regular season crown for the Cobbers, their first since 2013 and seventh in program history. Now 21-3 (15-2 MIAC) Concordia continues to raise its national profile, closing in on a Top 16 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

In the A-R-C, Wartburg claimed its fourth consecutive regular season title, winning 15 in a row after dropping its conference opener to Coe. The Knights, who graduated four starters who made 20+ starts in 2024-25, have reloaded in a major way, led by stellar freshman Katie Boulanger (17.6 PPG) and junior Grace Hennessy (12 starts in 24-25, 26 starts in 25-26). Led by Boulanger’s 16 points, Wartburg clinched with its 64-55 road win at Simpson.

UW-Oshkosh earned the WIAC’s regular season title outright with a statement win over 25th-ranked UW-La Crosse, 61-35, becoming the first WIAC program in 40-plus years to win the league outright in three consecutive seasons. UW-Green Bay was the last to do it, winning the Division II portion of the conference from 1980-82. The historic run has been keyed by offensive efficiency and defensive prowess, both of which were highlighted on Wednesday night. The Titans held La Crosse to its lowest single-game scoring total since Jan. 4, 2014.

In the OAC, Baldwin Wallace will finish on top for the third consecutive season, as the Yellow Jackets are now one win away from a perfect 16-0 clean sweep in league play. BW overwhelmed Heidelberg with a 20-4 run to open the game, winning comfortably, 81-44. It marks BW’s 13th OAC regular season title in program history.

DeSales clinched the No. 1 seed in the MAC Freedom Tournament with the Bulldogs 76-45 win over King’s, finishing atop the MACF for the fourth time in the last five seasons. DeSales head coach Fred Richter is now just two wins away from the career 700-win mark.

Of note, in opposite fashion to a title-clinching win, Merchant Marine caught up to Manhattanville in the Skyline Conference last night, creating a tie for the league’s top spot heading into the final day of the regular season on Saturday. USMMA got 22 points and 16 rebounds from Carolae Barton en route to a 62-52 win. Should both win on Saturday, they’d each finish tied at 18-2, with their records vs Mount St. Mary (the #3 team in the Skyline) being the tiebreaker. USMMA went 1-1 vs MSMC while Manhattanville is 1-0 with a rematch upcoming on Saturday.

Upsets and Surprises — 6 results that stood out to me

1. Central defeats Coe in key A-R-C battle: Central bounced back from its loss to Wartburg with an emphatic 65-54 win over a Coe team that came to Pella, Iowa battling for the A-R-C regular season title. Instead, Central put an end to that bid, with the Dutch outscoring the Kohawks by 15 over the final two quarters. It marked Central’s first win over Coe since Jan. 29, 2022, with Emily Naughton’s 18 points leading the way for Central, alongside Maddie Backer’s 13 points and 8 rebounds.
2. UW-Stout knocks off UW-River Falls, 69-54: I wasn’t so much surprised by Stout’s win as the margin by which the Blue Devils did it. With a young team that has only gotten better over the course of conference play, Stout rose to the occasion on its home floor, rolling past UWRF, who won by 18 in the first meeting of the season. A UWRF win would’ve moved the Falcons into a tie for second place in the WIAC, but Stout led for the final 35 minutes, holding the visitors to a 4-of-23 mark from beyond the arc. Julia Rybacki had 19 points in just 15 minutes off the bench for Stout.
3. UW-Stevens Point edges past No. 14 UW-Whitewater on the road: Nothing in the WIAC should be surprising at this point, but seeing UWW go down at home at this stage of the season certainly wasn’t what I anticipated. UWSP won, 66-63, earning its first road win over the Warhawks since 2017, as the Pointers outlasted UWW down the stretch. With 2:12, it was knotted at 58 apiece, but Maija Rice came through with her most impactful scoring play of the day at the 1:30 mark, drawing a foul as she got a layup to fall. Rice connected on the free throw for a three-point play, and the Pointers never relinquished the lead from there. Rice had 20 points to lead all scorers, and UWSP guard Karissa Smith added a 19-point, 10-rebound double-double.
4. Dubuque back in the win column: Facing a Luther team that had already punched its ticket to the A-R-C Tournament and was fighting for the No. 3 seed, Dubuque pulled off an impressive 63-60 win that featured a go-ahead 3 from Taylor Martin with 2:35 seconds left. The Spartans snapped a 14-game losing skid in the process, winning for the first time since Dec. 13 as they put forth a complete performance, aided by four players scoring in double figures.
5. Averett storms back in five-point win over Guilford: Averett has had an up-and-down season but put together a notable road win last night that I certainly didn’t see coming. Guilford was looking to remain tied with Shenandoah for fourth place in the ODAC and reach the double-digit conference win mark in its home finale, but was upended in Averett’s 25-point fourth quarter. The Cougars outscored Guilford by 11 in the final 10 minutes of a 63-58 win, pulling ahead with 3:11 to go. DaiShaundria Giggetts had 20 points and 10 rebounds for Averett.
6. DePauw wins rematch with No. 9 Ohio Wesleyan: All-American Macy Miller was back on the floor for OWU, but it was DePauw who pulled out a 60-56 win at home on Wednesday night. The Tigers earned their first win over the NCAC’s Top 3 led by Olivia Hart’s 22 points. Riley Mont added 19 and DePauw now finds itself within reach of an at-large bid, though the Tigers still have some work to do at Wooster on Saturday and in next week’s NCAC Tournament.

What does the at-large bid bubble look like today?
Courtesy of Scott Peterson (thed3statlab.com), we have a new look at the at-large bid picture. These are based on season simulations, so there’s always the possibility of one of these teams winning their conference tournament and securing an automatic bid. But as of right now, they aren’t the favorites to do that in their respective leagues, per Scott’s updated season simulations, which is why they’re listed here.

Remember, “ALWNYI” is your at-large bid chances when you need an at-large bid. This metric is telling us how many times in the season simulations this particular team both, A) lost in its conference tournament, and B) secured an at-large bid.

95% and above: Looking beyond the Top 10 (which all all locks), Bethel and SUNY New Paltz are also basically locks at this point. Both have done enough to feel really good about where they’re at, comfortably in the field.

Next tier: Gettysburg and the ODAC trio of Shenandaoh, Randolph-Macon, and Bridgewater still have some work to do, but odds are really favorable right now. One thing to remember when you see a group of teams from a single league in this spot is that they’ll likely still play each other at some point, which could impact this. For example, RMC and Shenandoah are the No. 3 and No. 4 teams in the ODAC standings right now, meaning they’ll meet in the first round of the ODAC Tournament if chalk holds.

The true bubble: These last four or five teams are your bubble-in teams. Depending on bid thieves (teams outside of the at-large bid picture in a multi-bid league that win the AQ), and other significant results, sitting in that “Last Four In” group is never very comfortable. Susquehanna is in the best spot of these bubble-in teams at 60.9% and Gustavus Adolphus is right behind (with a chance to up that tonight vs St. Scholastica). River Falls, Emory, and Saint Mary’s are the ones who truly need to keep winning to stay in the field. Saint’s Mary’s 77-72 loss to Hamline last night dropped the Cardinals down to the lowest ALWNI% of the teams still listed in the projected field.

Bubble-Out: Otterbein and Carnegie Mellon are the two to watch here. CMU still has to play Emory twice, so those two results could have a major role to play in whether Emory or CMU end up securing an at-large. Per Scott Peterson’s post on X this morning, “I think Emory has to go 4-0 to feel good about making the tournament, while CMU has to go 3-1.” Something to keep an eye on for sure.

In case you didn’t see it posted on X yesterday, Scott and I will be LIVE on YouTube on Feb. 28, breaking down the at-large bid picture, AQ winners, and more. We’re planning to do it as most of Saturday’s early conference championship games are wrapping up so be sure to bookmark it, set a reminder on YouTube, and tune in! We’ll have up-the-minute NPI updates (or close to it) to give you the best idea of how the tournament field is shaping up. (Link)