It is about that time of year, when the Top 25 polls really start to take their true shape and form. Up until this point, there has been lots of movement, fluctuations, and shifts. (Not that there won’t be more before the season ends.) Now, for the most part the top teams, schools to consider for the tournaments, and even a few sleepers are in the polls or getting votes.
You would be hard pressed to see a team not getting any one points, jump into the Top 25 by the NCAA Tournament.
But, as the polls start to take their shape, the so-called “experts” also appear.
You know who they are. They are probably listening right now.
Those from the top teams who think their team should be ranked higher or not take a hit for losing.
Those from mid-rankings who think their team is getting robbed, or disrespected.
And of course, those who think their team is the best, since… the last time their team was the best… but don’t know why they aren’t in the Top 25.
Let me first clear up the last one. This is the Top 25! Not all the teams above .500 are going to get in!
Ok, now that I have gotten that out of the way… let’s move on to some of those other “expert opinions”.
Last week on the show, there were many who wanted to know how the Top 25 is voted on. Of course, when someone explained why they voted a certain way, it wasn’t a good enough answer.
The most common comment from the peanut gallery was, “have you seen all the teams?”
Seriously, who in Division III actually has seen all the teams?!
I certainly haven’t. I bet not one of the Top 25 voters in each poll has actually seen all of the teams in the Top 10.
Well, this angered some fans. They thought they were getting robbed because a voter hadn’t actually seen all the games. Their team was better; they would yell and immediately try and prove why they were right.
Before you think you can prove yourself right, let me ask you the same question you are asking the voters. Have you seen all the teams, yourself?
Don’t even try and argue you have.
If any fan in – lets say – Illinois thinks they have a better idea how the Top-25 should breakdown, while having not seen a team outside of Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, or Iowa, better just sit down. An Elmhurst fan has no right to cry about their non-ranking, thinking they are better than Trinity of Connecticut, if they haven’t seen Trinity or their opponents.
So, most fans use the comparison method. Well, if my team beat Team A by 20 and Team A beat Team B by 10… then my team is obviously better than Team B. Really?! Have you taken into account other scenarios? Like if the game was at home or away? If there were any injuries to any of a team’s top players? If one of the games you pointed out was at the beginning of the season, while the other was last weekend?
Of course not, that would be easy.
Top 25 voters have a lot more experience and lot more knowledge about Division III basketball than those not voting. If you think you have more knowledge, you know who to talk to. But, until you are actually a voter… your soap box is a little shorter than mine.
On the women’s side last year, the voters were almost spot on. Four of the top six teams in the nation before the championship tournament, made it to the Final Four in Virginia Beach.
Now, while the men’s side didn’t do as well (see the last rant), there wasn’t much argument about the Top 25 or who was really #1.
I also got an email recently from a fan that was frustrated by their team “falling” one spot in the poll this week. He argued his team had won a tough road game and had beaten last years ECAC team.
However, to make things worse, the person obviously didn’t look very closely at the Top 25 this week. If he had, he would have noticed that while his “fell” one spot, they actually gained 30 more points from the voters. What does that mean? The lack of respect this fan thought his team was getting from the voters wasn’t true. They were actually getting more respect… along with other teams. Falling one spot in the Top 25 is minor. Falling five or more, that is something to take note of. But for that to happen, your team probably lost.
(To this person’s credit, I replied with much the same message to him… and he replied he now understood their ranking.)
Another email this week actually had a valid complaint. A fan was wondering why the now #13 ranked McMurry University women’s team was so low. They are one of only two undefeated teams in the nation, and not even in the Top 10. But, that was the end of the valid part of the argument.
The fan went on to point out McMurry had won some exhibitions against tough D2 schools prior to the season. So, you want points for winning a game that didn’t count, before the season even started? Heck, even if they were in season, they wouldn’t count in the voters minds. Why? Because those opponents were D2 teams! There are other reasons McMurry hasn’t cracked the Top-10, but this fans reasons weren’t good enough.
So, while the “experts” try and argue who the Top 25 teams are in the nation, while most likely only looking at their region. And while some dive into the Posters Poll to prove they know what they are talking about and the voters don’t, everyone keep in mind two simple things.
First, these polls are just an idea of who the best are. The NCAA doesn’t take them into account when selecting teams to the tournament (in other words, just concentrate on winning).
And secondly, no poll is 100% accurate. Case in point: the D3hoops.com Women’s Top 25 and the WBCA Coach’s Poll aren’t even close when compared side-by-side.
Example #1:
In the WBCA poll, undefeated Mary Washington is #9, while D3hoops.com has them #4. McMurry is not getting a first-place vote in either poll. But #6 DePauw (with one loss) is getting a first place vote in the WBCA poll.
Example #2:
The WBCA poll has UW-Oshkosh in at #22… the D3hoops.com poll has them out of the Top 25.
Example #3:
Kenyon College fell out of the WBCA Top 25 this week, but was still getting points. They aren’t even getting looks from any of the D3hoops.com’s Top 25 voters.
Oh, and keep something else in mind. The WBCA poll appears to only have eight coaches voting (only eight first place votes), while the D3hoops.com poll has 25 voters from around the nation. Anyone complaining about the WBCA poll? Why not?!
So, before you get all hot and bothered with the voting, relax. The Top 25 voters aren’t going to see things your way and it isn’t going to be perfect.
Heck, I thought Goucher College at least deserved some Top 25 votes for beating Mary Washington on a buzzer beater… for their first win of the season. Doesn’t that get them any credit?
Apparently not! My Gophers are so getting robbed!
I’ll trade you, I’ll give Goucher a vote on my Posters Poll next week if you give a vote to NJCU. 🙂
This can all be boiled down to something I tell disgruntled fans all the time: You cannot look at the poll in isolation. Everything that happens around you affects the final result as well.
Case in point: Carroll has 40 points this week and had 40 points last week. But this week they’re in the Top 25 because teams around them fell.
No rants from me about the McMurry Women!
–We have nine more ASC-West Division games.
–We have another road trip this weekend–Texas Lutheran and Schreiner. Schreiner is improved.
–Next Monday night we go across town for the National Game of the Night before 3200 screaming fans in Hardin-Simmons’ Mabee Center.
–Howard Payne still must come to Abilene.
–The Conference Tourney is at the East Winner this year. Hello, 575-mile bus ride to Clinton MS to Mississippi College’s Golden Dome.
–If we want to host the Sectionals, we probably need to be undefeated, and there are 12 games away from Selection Monday, plus first and second round games.
One other thing that the Pollsters know is the ASC hasn’t shown much on the national level. That ranter may have seen the only ASC playoff win over a non-South Region team, the 2000 Lady Indians 62-47 win over Simpson.
Let’s not be botherin’ Dave with this stuff. If you are frustrated, email me. We can talk this one out. I see great potential for this team, but our freshmen and sophomores need to get much better! All 13 players need to be ready, and we have more work to do!
Until the ASC teams have a couple of Final Fours and or McMurry has a Walnut and Bronze, let’s not be “all hat and no cattle”.
Best rant so far, Dave…I concur.
The only thing I question is that I have Wisconsin – LaCrosse the highest rated WIAC men’s team in my power rating compendium, and they didn’t get any votes. Now I know the WIAC is wacky and no one is standing out – but not to get any votes just puzzled me a bit. Other than that I don’t worry about the polls – it’s the tourney that counts.
SmedIndy, UW-LaCrosse has home losses to Whitewater and Stevens Point. Their only win over a Top 5 WIAC team is a 2 point win at 6-3 Stout.
Non-conf wins are over Buena Vista, Coe, Viterbo, Lakeland, Ripon, Edgewood, St. Thomas, Carleton, and Northland.
http://www.d3hoops.com/school_info.php?school=UW-La%20Crosse&team=m
To be honest, I question your power rating, not the poll.
14th in Massey using MOV. 14th in Wolfe. Top 25 Strength of Schedule. That’s a pretty stout resume.
Smedindy,
“14th in Massey using MOV. 14th in Wolfe. Top 25 Strength of Schedule. That’s a pretty stout resume.”
I am confused.
Shouldn’t that read “That’s a pretty LaCrosse resume.”
😉
Probably because Lax gets something for beating teams that have beaten good WIAC teams, even though it has not beaten any good WIAC teams itself?
Gotta win games. It’s not who you lose to.
And 15-3 isn’t winning games? It’s not like they’re pikers here. Anyway, it’s just the way it works out.
“You would be hard pressed to see a team not getting any […] points, jump into the Top 25 by the NCAA Tournament.”
Oh man, you gotta know I can’t resist a challenge like that! 🙂 After a little research, I think it’s safe to say that this statement is not accurate.
The most current poll is week 8. “In the Top 25 by the NCAA Tournament” I take to mean “in the final regular season top 25.” In every season but one, there have been three teams that went from zero points in week 8 to within the top 25 by season’s end. In fact, two of these teams made it to the national championship game. Here’s the list:
2004-05: #17 Gustavus Adolphus, #21 Rochester (national runner-up), #23 UW-Platteville
2003-04: #19 Illinois Wesleyan, #21 UW-River Falls, #24 Catholic
2002-03: #23 Albion, #24 Gustavus Adolphus (national runner-up), #25 Ursinus
2001-02: none
2000-01: #15 McMurry, #19 St. Johns, #24 Maryville (TN)
1999-2000: #18 Widener, #20 Cortland St., #25 Franklin
I’d say there’s still a fair amount of shaking out to do.
…so maybe there’s hope for UW-La Crosse yet! 🙂
David, is D3Hoops.com now officially included in the legal search engines? 🙂
That’s impressive! Thanks!
I think that the fairest assessment of a poll is to take the last week before the playoffs and put them into the brackets and see how many winners you can predict, considering Home Court Advantage along the way.
“In every season but one, there have been three teams that went from zero points in week 8 to within the top 25 by season’s end. In fact, two of these teams made it to the national championship game.”
Good research on the list… but on problem. My quote was:
“You would be hard pressed to see a team not getting any […] points, jump into the Top 25 by the NCAA Tournament.”
So, redo and resubmit :).
And for those all psyched up about the Massey ratings… chill out. Those ratings mean nothing this time of year. It’s like looking at the first two weeks of the BCS and predicting who the Top 5 teams really are!
I agree with the polls not being perfect. It is impossible. There is no better way to look at these teams than how it’s being done. I know Pat and the guys put together pretty thorough packets of info. each week for the pollsters to evaluate that go well beyond wins and losses. We must remember the people voting are coaches, SID’s and other media people that also have their jobs to do everyday! They find time to look through the info. given to them each week and evaluate it and vote so that we have the luxury of looking at it first thing tuesday mornings and can begin our complaints. Not everyone will be satisfied including myself who thinks it’s odd that the Wilmington women are #25 this week after beating Capital but losing to BW and jumped over several teams that were receiving more votes last week including a team that I support. But, the voters saw something that warranted the ranking. I’ll take this poll any day over the WBCA which for the most part is a joke. Eight voters, c’mon! and sometimes all 8 don’t even vote! We should be glad we have a poll that is pretty darn accurate and a forum where we can voice our opinions like this!
One thing I do disagree with d-mac about is the D2 games not counting in voters minds. I believe BW women dropped some spots earlier this year after losing to D2 Wheeling Jesuit. It also didn’t stop themfrom moving George Fox up, unti lthis week, after a bunch of wins against non D3 opponents. I personally feel games against opponents outside D3 shouldn’t even be considered in the rankings.
In my careful study of those ratings over the past three years – now is the time where they do mean something. Enough games have been played, conference season is upon us. When I did my compendium, there were just a few teams on Massey and Wolfe that were quite divergent. So to wave away those ratings now is disingenuous, based on my observations and studies over the past three years.
I like to look at the Massey ratings now for fun more than anything else. I think they do a decent job at this point in ranking the teams as the stand RIGHT NOW. Obviously, most conference double round-robins are just getting into the second round so there is a lot of crucial data to still be entered. My problem with Massey is looking at the ALL DIVISION rankings. It has Lawrence rated 82nd. Now that is obviously not right. Also, in the D3 only rankings…Lawrence has a massive lead over second place Witt (1.337 to .919). That means that Lawrence is 145% better than anyother D3 team? I doubt it. I’ll admit, I have no clue what the Massey ranking algorithm is but this makes me think that a loss really kills you in his rankings. If you use the MOV rankings, however, it looks to give much better results.
I only use the MOV rankings, and I think he prefers that as well. He had to use the non-MOV formula for the BCS, because the ijits over-reacted a few years ago.
Oh, and if we could ever convince Sagarin and Pomeroy to do D-3 power ratings THEN we’d be onto something!
“Good research on the list… but on problem. My quote was:
“You would be hard pressed to see a team not getting any […] points, jump into the Top 25 by the NCAA Tournament.”
So, redo and resubmit 🙂 .”
That’s the quote I was working off of; I must be missing your point… ???
My point was… who didn’t have points and jumped into the Top 25 by the NCAA Tournament. Not by the end of the tournament… but by the time the tournament arrived.
That’s what he gave you – the final REGULAR season top 25 – not the final top 25 after the NCAA. So it has happened quite a bit.
That’s what I thought you meant. My list shows the teams that went from zero points in week 8 to within the top 25 in the last poll of the regular season, which is released prior to the NCAA tournament.
For example, Gustavus Adolphus in 2002-03 got zero points in the week 8 poll that year. They re-entered the poll in the final week of the season (which that year was week 13) at #24 (as shown above), then tore through the tournament to reach the title game. Their final ranking (in the final, post-season poll) was #3.
Last season Rochester received no votes in week 8. They started getting votes in week 10, got back into the top 25 in week 12, and reached #21 by week 14, the final regular-season poll (shown above). After their loss to UW-SP in the title game, their final rank (like GAC before them) was #3.
In each year (except 2001-02), three teams that got no votes in week 8 were in the top 25 when the NCAA tournament began.