Around the Nation: Big games and close calls

Posted on September 21, 2015 by Pat Coleman

We might question whether some teams are as good as we think, and some Top 25 voters might be asking the same questions. Other teams are right where everyone thought they would be. And in some places, there’s new excitement and new life for football. We look at those teams, plus, which are the teams on the rise? What key highlights happened below the radar? Pat and Keith answer those questions, plus hand out their game balls, on this week’s Around the Nation Podcast.

The Around the Nation Podcast is a weekly conversation between Pat Coleman and Keith McMillan covering the wide range of Division III football. It drops on Monday morning weekly throughout the season.

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Triple Take, Week 3: The competition gets rougher

Posted on September 18, 2015 by Keith McMillan

In quite a few places from coast to coast this weekend, the time for mismatches is over. Whether conference play is getting underway like it is in the Empire 8 and OAC, or teams are looking for one more good non-conference test, like our games of the week below, teams are getting on their levels.

By that I mean they’re beginning to play the contests that will define them this season, the ones they’ll look back on with pride if they emerge victorious. Players don’t care about rivalries nearly as much as the alumni. They love the games that push them until the fourth quarter, until sweat drips down between their helmets and faces, and they can put their hands on their knees or hips and exhale, knowing that was tough. We’ve got a bevy of those in Week 3.

All of us who aren’t putting on pads this weekend get the benefit of watching. Since many of our 247 teams are in action, Around the Nation columnist Ryan Tipps, editor and publisher Pat Coleman and I provide a seven-point primer on where to look for this weekend’s highlights. Enjoy.

— Keith McMillan

Game of the week

Keith’s take: No. 13 North Central at No. 22 Platteville. Here’s where we find out if these Cardinals and Pioneers are living off the reputations their predecessors built, or if they deserve their spots in the top 25. UW-Platteville outscored Buena Vista and Dubuque 80-20, and has the North Central game as a rugged warmup for a conference opener with No. 1 UW-Whitewater next week. QB Tom Kelly is completing 78 percent of his passes so far. North Central, meantime, rushed for 269 yards in its opener at 5.6 per carry, and hosts No. 5 Wesley next week. The road gets easier for neither, and a win here would be one to savor (and file away in case it is needed to convince the selection committee of at-large playoff spot worthiness).

Ryan’s take: No. 16 Hobart at No. 24 Ithaca. Despite going through a realignment and seeing traditional power St. John Fisher manhandled in Week 1, the Empire 8 looks to have maintained much of the top-to-bottom power it has shown in recent seasons. What hasn’t truly emerged, in my mind, is a front-runner. Ithaca has broken into the top 25, but Cortland State, Morrisville State, Alfred and Fisher are all getting votes. I think voters are uncertain which of them will break into the top of the pack. Ithaca, with a winning performance against Hobart, could set itself apart. Hobart, on the other hand, hasn’t moved much so far this year, but that could change (for better or for worse) based on the outcome of this game.

Pat’s take: Maryville at Emory and Henry. These teams have played a string of good to great games each of the past three seasons, even as the relative fortunes of the two programs have shifted a couple of times. Last year this was an early-season low-scoring game, but it ended up being the only time E&H was held under 27 points. These are both teams who we expect to contend for their respective conference titles, and a good non-conference test for each.

Surprisingly close game

Keith’s take: Fitchburg State at Framingham State. If you follow the national scene, you’ll know that the hosts have been knocking on the top 25/could-win-a-playoff-game-or-two door for three years. The visitors are the team you probably mistake for Framingham, unless you’re familiar with Massachusetts. The Falcons surged from 2-8 in 2013 to 6-4 last year by winning close games, although they trailed 35-6 during a 42-21 loss to Framingham last season. Fitchburg is 2-0 but hasn’t played nearly the level of competition that Framingham has, so I might have talked myself out of this being surprisingly close. I probably should have picked Endicott at St. Lawrence, based solely on the Gulls staying close to Hobart last week and their new head man knowing the Saints from having coached previously with the rival Statesmen.

Ryan’s take: Ohio Wesleyan at No. 17 Wittenberg. I almost picked this as my top 25 upset game but I couldn’t justify to myself that an upset would actually happen. After all, Witt’s margin of victory was 36 points last year and 38 points two years ago, and the Tigers are darn good again this season. I do feel that Witt will win, but I don’t think it will be as egregiously lopsided.

Pat’s take: Widener at Albright. In fact, this is another candidate for me for game of the week. Albright is 1-0 after its comeback win vs. Salisbury on Opening Friday and Widener lost to Rowan, then pulled away from King’s with a big third quarter last week. I suspect Widener would be a slight favorite on the road here but I’m making this pick primarily to tell people not to rule Albright out.

Most likely top-25 team to be upset

Keith’s take: No. 8 St. John’s, at Concordia-Moorhead. Because it’s his home base, Minnesota games are usually Pat’s department. But I’m taking this because it’s the right pick, and because I get to pontificate. D-III isn’t always fair. Certain teams just get a raw deal. Four straight seasons, Louisiana College went 7-3 and missed the playoffs by a hair. When they finally went 8-2, with losses only to Wesley and UMHB, their reward was a first-round exit at UMHB. The Wildcats and Concordia-Moorhead are my ‘best teams with the least to show for it’ over the past 10 years. The Cobbers have gone 8-2 with a win against St. John’s each of the past three seasons, and haven’t made the playoffs. With the Johnnies back in the top 10, and St. Thomas and Bethel also ranked, the MIAC is as brutal as ever. The Cobbers won their first two games 41-17 and 41-7, while St. John’s won by 36 and 49. This is the first stiff test for both, so I don’t know that the first two games give any indication about which way this will go.

Ryan’s take: No. 10 John Carroll. I’ve mentioned in an Around the Nation column that I’m more skeptical of JCU than it seems other top 25 voters are. Heidelberg (along with Ohio Northern in two weeks) poses one of the few hurdles to the Blue Streaks until they play Mount Union in Week 11. I would be okay being proven wrong by a strong John Carroll performance, but I’m not seeing it play out that way.

Pat’s take: No. 18 Centre. I think this is another week that is relatively devoid of upsets but the Colonels had a lot of things go right last year on the way to going 10-0. Wash. U., on the other hand, is an opponent that Centre could be convinced to take lightly based on the fact that the Colonels won 50-20 last year. I’m not super convinced, but I didn’t think I could get away with saying “nobody” for all 11 weeks of the season. (By the way, Keith, pontificate all you want. I think the Cobbers’ streak ends here.)

Which team gets its first win this weekend?

Keith’s take: Pacific Lutheran. After the Lutes more or less gave one away, albeit kindly to their Lutheran brethren from California, they have to face 2-0 Trinity (Texas). The Tigers’ struggles last season included a 38-14 home loss to PLU, but their 2-0 start this year includes a convincing 35-6 win against Willamette, the Lutes’ conference rival. But if Pacific Lutheran plays more like the team that built the 26-10 halftime lead at Cal Lutheran and less like the one that blew it, they’ll get their first win.

Ryan’s take: Capital. This pick is more a testament to a solid showing the Crusaders had in Week 1 against Wittenberg than it is to the fact that they’re playing Wilmington this week. Against Witt, Capital had a furious never-give-up type of rally in the fourth quarter, and that kind of determination will lead them to a solid season. Wilmington is 1-0 for the first time since 2002, a win that helped them snap a 23-game losing streak. While the Quakers should be feeling good about themselves because of it, they likely won’t be able to hang with Capital.

Pat’s take: Lewis and Clark. One of the fun things about some of these games between teams elsewhere in the rankings is they can be wide-open, high-scoring, entertaining affairs, and that’s why I picked this game out. Roger Caron is hanging on in his tenure at Pomona-Pitzer, while Lewis and Clark hired former Linfield national champion coach Jay Locey. This game might not remain competitive in future years but right now, a game between two teams that have lost 27 of their past 28 games still has promise to be exciting. I attended this game six short years ago and it was fantastically entertaining.

Which team bounces back from a tough loss?

Keith’s take: Augustana. I could have picked Salisbury at Montclair State and automatically have been correct, since both were hard-luck losers to MAC teams in their openers two weeks ago but one is bound to win. Yet the Vikings, who led Albion twice in the fourth quarter and scored 49 points, were even harder-luck losers. They have a chance to rebound against Loras, which scored 42 in a 10-point loss to UW-Stout and is facing a CCIW team for the second time in three weeks.

Ryan’s take: Muhlenberg. Yes, last week I picked the Mules to be one of the top 25 upsets, and they were. But I also see potential in this team, and I think they will use this week against McDaniel to regain their confidence and iron out their kinks ahead of the Johns Hopkins game on Sept. 26.

Pat’s take: St. John Fisher at Cortland State. I just have to envision that St. John Fisher used its bye week to correct some of the many things that apparently went wrong two weeks ago in that dismal loss at Thomas More. Now, unfortunately for the Cardinals, Cortland has spent the past two weeks winning games against teams in the top quarter of Division III, and doing it with either of their quarterbacks, so St. John Fisher has its work cut out for it. I just can’t imagine Fisher laying another egg.

Pick a team with a funny name but serious game this weekend.

Keith’s take: Alfred. The school with a name that sounds like your grandfather hosts an Empire 8 clash with Buffalo State. I originally wrote the question intending “serious game” to mean a team that’s going to play well, but every Empire 8 matchup this week looks serious, from a competitive perspective. Alfred has beaten Husson and RPI, while the Bengals have been off since shutting out Otterbein in the opener. Unrelated, I’m amused by four of the five water schools (the three Maritimes, Merchant Marine and Coast Guard) matching up this weekend.

Ryan’s take: Concordia-Moorhead Cobbers. The school’s Web site quotes ESPN saying, “How fierce can a corncob be? But that’s what makes the Cobber special — it symbolizes not only Concordia’s athletic spirit, but its overall good sense of humor.” We will see how fierce indeed as the team takes on No. 8 St. John’s on Saturday. The Johnnies have lost this matchup three years running.

Pat’s take: FDU-Florham. More about the school name than the rather pedestrian “Devils” nickname, but this is because the school used to refer to itself as FDU-Madison and it’s actually in Madison, N.J. But I guess “Florham” sounds better. If you can’t beat ’em, Florham. One more pun — that’s what the Devils’ passing offense has been doing the past two games, flooring ’em with lots of passes to Malik Pressley. We’ll see how King’s chooses to defend against him.

They’ll be on your radar

Keith’s take: Becker and Nichols. Becker, which played its first game in 2005, has never won more than three games in a season and has only twice has had back-to-back wins. Nichols has won four games in the past five seasons. Both won convincingly last week, and by late Friday night, either the Hawks or Bison will be 2-1 and on a winning streak where fans have seen few.

Ryan’s take: Montclair State. I had the Red Hawks on my top 25 ballot at the beginning of the season, before they lost to Delaware Valley. They’re no longer there, but that doesn’t mean I’m not paying attention. I’m most curious to see how they fare against the triple-option from NJAC newcomer Salisbury. That offense is a beast unlike anything Montclair State is used to.

Pat’s take: Albion. Mostly I’m keeping my eye on this game to see if Albion, which hosts Lakeland, can significantly cut into that 50.5 points allowed per game. If the Britons can’t keep the Muskies down, then there might not be any hope for them defensively and they will have to rely on winning a shootout every week.

We invite you to add your predictions in the comments below. Download the Around the Nation podcast on Mondays, where Pat and Keith review the picks that were prescient, and those that were terribly off base.

Triple take Week 11: It all comes down to this

Posted on November 14, 2014 by Keith McMillan

Delaware Valley picked off Seth Klein twice in last year’s Keystone Cup game. He has thrown only two interceptions in the nine games since. (Widener athletics photo)

With all due respect to the pinnacle that is the Stagg Bowl, Week 11 is the most fun Division III can have, considering its all-inclusive nature. From the top-10 OAC clash to the multiple teams in the conference championship mix in the NACC and ODAC to Anna Maria facing Becker with each team vying for its first and only win of the season, there’s something on the line almost everywhere. If teams aren’t playing for a playoff spot outright, they’re playing for a bell or a jug or some other proof that they’ve beaten their rival. Some teams are just playing to go into the offseason on a positive note.

Pat Coleman, Ryan Tipps and I make sense of this week’s slate, with a clear slant towards games with playoff implications. We’ll be here until the Stagg Bowl, of course, but if this is your last time joining us for predictions, thanks for enjoying another 11-week rush of a regular season with us.

— Keith McMillan

Game of the week
Keith’s take: No. 6 John Carroll at No. 3 Mount Union. If we’ve spent the season making almost no predictions about these two teams because they’ve made their wins look comically easy — the Purple Raiders are outscoring opponents by an average of 64-6, and the Blue Streaks 55-7 — then it’s only fair to thrust the spotlight on them now. Not only have they earned the recognition, but there’s actual intrigue when they’re facing one another. The teams met under similar circumstances last year, and Mount Union took a 35-13 lead on the way to a 42-34 win. The Blue Streaks, with six home games already in the books, play at Mount Union for the second year in a row because of the OAC’s normal schedule reshuffling. It’s a matchup of the nation’s No. 1 and 2 scoring offenses and total defenses (UW-Whitewater is wedged between the two in the top 3 of scoring defense). And on top of all that, the most accomplished player on either team, Mount Union QB Kevin Burke, tweeted midweek that the social-media yapping can stop, because the game is won on the field Saturday. While it’d be interesting, for the sake of change, if Mount Union lost and went on the road in the playoffs at some point, we’ve been conditioned to expect regular-season win No. 93 in a row for UMU.
Ryan’s take: No. 16 Delaware Valley at No. 12 Widener. It helps my thinking that I profiled this game in this week’s Around the Nation column. The bottom line is that these two Keystone Cup rivals have never come into this game both being 9-0. The winner is guaranteed a spot in the playoffs, but the loser is as close to an at-large lock as one could imagine. These two teams have dominated the MAC over the past decade, and both are averaging more than 40 points a game this season. This is Division III at its best.
Pat’s take: Also No. 6 John Carroll at No. 3 Mount Union. There aren’t enough words to describe how much we’ve been waiting for this game. But also, John Carroll really needs to play this game. It’s the first big test for the Blue Streaks since they lost at home in the first round of the playoffs last season and they have floated to No. 6 on the strength of other teams’ losses and their own pasting of overmatched opponents. The OAC has a bunch of really young programs (to put it mildly) who have proved to be no match for the two at the top and John Carroll has to perform well to be taken seriously in Week 12.

Surprisingly close game
Keith’s take: No. 16 Washington and Jefferson at Waynesburg. Nobody’s talking about this game because the PAC has been clinched, and effectively over for weeks. Waynesburg is 7-2, however, with five games decided by seven points or fewer, including a one-touchdown loss to Thomas More last week. The Presidents are third nationally in total offense (553.4 yards/game) and sixth in scoring (47.7 points) and could use this as a tune-up for the postseason. But if they get caught looking ahead, it could be more of a struggle than they’d prefer.
Ryan’s take: Hendrix at Sewanee. The Tigers are coming off one of their best weeks of the season, while the Warriors have lost two in a row. The Warriors, at 5-4, should be favored, but I think Sewanee is carrying some positive momentum with them to make this a good one.
Pat’s take: Any of a dozen East Coast games. Keep an eye on the weather and the snow cover at any of a bunch of games in the Mid-Atlantic, where a storm front that dumped up to 16 inches of snow near St. John’s was making its way late this week. Schools in the Midwest know how to deal with this snow a little better and had an extra day to clear it, plus St. John’s is playing two hours south, at St. Olaf, where the snow cover was minimal. Some sets of seniors are going to get to go out with some pretty cool (if not pretty cold) memories and weather tends to keep the scoring down, so there could be some unpredictability.

Most likely Top 25 team to lose:
Keith’s take: No. 4 Wesley. The Wolverines have their best team since the 2011 squad that nearly won at Mount Union to advance to the Stagg Bowl, and they beat Charlotte 35-28 last year, in that program’s first season. This time around, the 49ers are a different beast. They’re 3-6, but with five losses by eight points or fewer. And they haven’t been playing the dregs of FCS either — last week’s loss was to Coastal Carolina, who’s No. 1 and No. 2 in the FCS polls, and the week before, ranked James Madison beat them, 48-40. Most D-III teams have a handful of players who could be on scholarship in FCS or D-II; Charlotte has at least 85 such players. As big a point of pride as it was for Wesley to have beaten a scholarship program last season, it had to be that humbling for the 49ers. Coming off six straight losses and hungry for a win, and not likely to take the little ol’ Division III team lightly this year, Charlotte is going to be quite the mountain for Wesley to scale. The good news: The Wolverines have had two weeks to prepare, and won’t be knocked out of the D-III playoff picture with a loss.
Ryan’s take: No. 22 St. Thomas. We all expected to see Gustavus Adolphus slide at the end of the season, but the slide hasn’t been that drastic on the scoreboard. Yes, the Gusties are in a three-game skid to St. John’s, Bethel and Concordia-Morehead, but not one margin has been by more than 10 points. Common-opponent comparisons lend weight to what can happen on Saturday.
Pat’s take: No. 15 UW-Platteville. The UW-Oshkosh Titans have been served notice by the West Region committee that they are not simply playing out the string this year, that they have a chance at a playoff bid. Oshkosh is making its longest trip of the conference season and while it’s a long drive from northeast to southwest Wisconsin, they also get to escape the snow zone and should have a nice, dry surface to play on. Now, those elements probably favor an offensive-minded team such as Platteville, but Oshkosh has to see it has a chance to play on. This may be an elimination game for both teams, but Oshkosh is trying to prove that it is worthy of playoff consideration after losing three consecutive games to scholarship schools to open the season.

Which team can play itself into the postseason in Week 11?
Keith’s take: Emory & Henry, against Guilford. The Wasps may need to give the Yellow Jackets a buzz to call in a favor, but with a win against the 7-2 Quakers and a Randolph-Macon upset of Hampden-Sydney in The Game, first-year coach Curt Newsome and his team are playoff-bound. If the Wasps and Tigers both win, Hampden-Sydney gets the automatic bid by virtue of its head-t0-head 49-27 victory in October, and the Wasps are 9-1 but on the fringe of the Pool C picture. With a .478 strength of schedule (anything below .500 is not good) that should rise a bit after playing Guilford, and no wins over regionally-ranked opponents, they’d have a shaky case for an at-large bid when put up against other possible 9-1 teams like Wabash, the Mount Union/John Carroll loser, the Delaware Valley/Widener loser and perhaps Texas Lutheran. Guilford, with one of its losses coming to Hampden-Sydney, is basically blocked from getting in.
Ryan’s take: Husson, against Mount Ida. Husson (6-0 in conference play) owns leadership of most of the conference’s offensive stats and is second defensively allowing just 17 points a game. The one crucial spot where Mount Ida, which has just one conference loss, could gain an edge is if the Mustangs are able to win the turnover battle. That has proven effective for much of the season. Barring that, however, it looks like the Eagles should be able to punch their ticket to the playoffs and avoid a messy three-way tie at the top of the ECFC.
Pat’s take: Centre, at Birmingham-Southern. I mean, I have to believe this is still possible, despite the utterly bizarre way in which the South Region’s regional advisory committee ranked them. Surely the national committee will correct that error if Centre goes 10-0. Perhaps Centre will feel like it needs to beat the Panthers with style points in order to convince the committee it’s a legitimate 10-0 team. It’s not like we’re talking about Westminster (Mo.) 1999, folks. 10-0 against a representative Division III schedule belongs in the playoffs already. Why the drama?

Which team can play itself out of the postseason in Week 11?
Keith’s take: Texas Lutheran, against Southwestern. The Bulldogs should Marquis Ba-ROLL over the 1-7 Pirates. (Ugh, I can’t believe I typed that). Given Wednesday’s regional rankings, TLU looks like a good bet to get that playoff spot it missed last season, no doubt partially because it scheduled UMHB this year. The reward would be another trip to UMHB, and a chance to avenge a 72-16 Oct. 25 loss, but the Week 11 win has to come first. With Centre and Framingham State each breathing down the Bulldogs’ necks in Pool B, behind Stagg Bowl contender Wesley, there’s no margin for error. Regarding the Bulldogs, Colonels and Rams, the national committee is in a precarious position either way. TLU played UMHB, Framingham State played Rowan and Centre (208th-best strength of schedule, .441, this week) played no one that’s regionally ranked. So it might be reasonable to believe that if the Colonels had, they’d have the same blemish on their unbeaten record. If you look at who the three actually beat, only TLU has a win over a regionally ranked team, and none play a team of consequence in Week 11.
Ryan’s take: Wabash, against DePauw. I have to find a way to get a mention of the Monon Bell game in here, right? Bottom line is that DePauw has no chance of making the playoffs, but Wabash does. That kind of dynamic has made this game interesting in years past because rivals love nothing more than winning the trophy game – and spoiling the other’s playoff chances can be the perfect cherry on top. Even though the Little Giants lost last weekend, I like their playoff chances as a 9-1 team because of the Week 1 win over Hampden-Sydney. That’s a far more quality win than 2013’s win over Hanover; that year, Wabash finished 9-1 but was left out, in part, because of a weak strength of schedule. Wabash has more than just the bell at stake this weekend and needs to make this one count if the team hopes to play past Saturday.
Pat’s take: Ithaca, against Cortland State, hear me out. Here’s why — Ithaca can’t be excluded from the postseason if it loses on Saturday, it already has an automatic bid. But the Bombers can play themselves out of having a winnable playoff game if they lose to Cortland State. That would leave Ithaca 7-3, and they are driving distance to Wesley and Mount Union. Beating Cortland State gives Ithaca a chance at a winnable first-round playoff game as well as the Cortaca Jug.
Keith’s other take: Pacific, against Linfield. Sorry, couldn’t publish this without acknowledging the chance the Boxers have to do the improbable. Despite getting through September with only two losses and a cancellation, Pacific is 6-0 in NWC play, and has to go through the mighty national power to become a playoff automatic qualifier. The teams’ results against Willamette, which upset the Wildcats, then lost last week to the Boxers, makes this a believable possibility. I find it hard to believe the Wildcats would lose a clincher at the Catdome; For more on this game from a Linfield perspective, I recommend this post over at CatdomeAlumni.com, even though it takes a swipe at “national pundits” right in the middle of it.

Which team can play poorly in Week 11, but survive to play next week?
Keith’s take: Rowan, on Friday night at TCNJ. The NJAC’s tiebreaker is different than it was the last time it had three teams in the mix for a bid on the final week, and the Profs need only win to cash in some old chips. Even a 3-2 victory against one of D-III’s worst offenses (TCNJ is tied for 234th at 11 points per game, and 236th in total offense at 221 yards per game) would get it done. Because it held first-half leads in a 31-0 win over Morrisville State and a 20-16 loss to Montclair State, the two teams it is tied with atop the conference, Rowan is playoff-bound with any kind of win Friday. With a loss, Montclair would need only beat 2-7 Kean to get in. Morrisville State, 8-2 and off this week, needs two 2-7 teams to pull upsets to receive the automatic bid.
Ryan’s take: No. 4 Wesley. We haven’t said hardly a word about Wesley in weeks because the second half of their schedule was loaded with non-Division III opponents. Wesley is the caliber of team that we should be talking about each week, but until next year when the Wolverines join the NJAC, there’s just not much to say. Frankly, the games they are playing these last couple of weeks matter less to the D-III world than the other 100-plus games out there each week. Wesley wraps up the regular season playing Charlotte, a team that played Wesley well last year. Hopefully, that means Wesley will get a little better battle-tested this week than it has against, say, College of Faith or Menlo in the past month.
Pat’s take: Mount Union. I don’t expect the Purple Raiders to play poorly, but they are the one team I am sure can lose on Saturday and not suffer a significant impact to their playoff chances or their first-round opponent next week. The way the committee ranked teams this week, I don’t have a lot of optimism for other teams in the same situation.

They’ll be off the playoff radar, but on yours
Keith’s take: Wilmington and Tarrell Starckey. It’s kind of tough for me to care about any Week 11 game with no playoff implications unless it’s a rivalry game. But there are 217 teams in action this weekend in 110 games, and most of them are neither. Way on the other end of the spectrum are players like Starckey, a junior who averages 10.5 tackles per game for his career, and plays on a team that’s 0-9 this year but has a chance to finish with a win against 2-7 Muskingum. There are players like this who might never get a moment on the front page of D3football.com (and some who have, like Thomas More’s Domonique Hayden and Heidelberg’s Cartel Brooks, who are are also among the career leaders and are probably playing their last game) but who exhibit as much heart and represent “For the Love of the Game” as much as a Gagliardi Trophy winner.
Ryan’s take: The bye week of Thomas More and Mount St. Joseph. As an alumnus of a school with a great rivalry, I hate seeing any rivalry game get passed over, especially one that is so geographically sensible and is established enough to have a trophy. I miss you, Bridge Bowl.
Pat’s take: Union and RPI. Union leads the Dutchman Shoes rivalry 47-17 and the series with RPI, 80-27-4 or 81-26-4. That depends on whose records you believe for the 1886 game. However, RPI has won nine of the past 20 and has evenly split the past 10 meetings. This is a rivalry that has gotten much more competitive in the past two decades and is worthy of Week 11 status.

We invite you to add your predictions in the comments below. Download the Around the Nation podcast on Mondays, where Pat and Keith review the picks that were prescient and off base.