Quick Hits: Who will clinch

Posted on November 3, 2017 by Pat Coleman

This weekend is all about who will clinch automatic bids, on top of all the things that typically go on in a Division III football weekend. Our Quick Hits crew predicts clinchers, Top 25 upsets, conference upsets and teams that will go into the offseason on a high note. Our regular crew is Keith McMillan, Ryan Tipps, Pat Coleman, Adam Turer and Frank Rossi. Our sixth spot goes to a guest each week, and this week’s is Patrick Bohn, an Ithaca grad who posts as Bomber798891 on D3boards.com.

— Pat Coleman

What’s Week 10’s Game of the Week?

Keith’s take: No. 25 Salisbury at No. 13 Wesley. Route 13 Rivalry pits two of NJAC’s three 7-1 teams, which gives it conference title and playoff implications.	Ryan’s take: No. 25 Salisbury at No. 13 Wesley. The Route 13 Rivalry is rarely one to disappoint. Honorable mention: WNE at Curry.	Pat’s take: Alfred at No. 10 Brockport. I think this game will be telling about the shift in the balance of the force in the E8.
Adam’s take: Union vs. Ithaca. Two first-year head coaches shaking up the Liberty League and two teams with plenty to play for.	Frank’s take: No. 25 Salisbury at No. 13 Wesley. A Wesley win gives Wolverines NJAC. A Salisbury win could take NJAC out of Pool C contention.	Patrick’s take: No. 25 Salisbury at No. 13 Wesley. These two teams have played (mostly) competitive games over the past few years, and both bring stout defenses to the table.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to get upset?

Keith’s take: No. 16 Case Western Reserve. Westminster (Pa.) has six- and one-point losses to 8-0 teams. CWRU loss would help Pool C hopefuls.	Ryan’s take: No. 21 George Fox. If Pacific Lutheran’s performance against Linfield last week is any indication.	Pat’s take: No. 20 UW-Plattevile. Because Keith will want me to pick someone, even though this would hardly be an upset.
Adam’s take: No. 16 Case Western Reserve. Westminster (Pa.) is the most underrated two-loss team in the country, losing by a total of seven to unbeatens Wittenberg and Washington & Jefferson.	Frank’s take: No. 21 George Fox. Last week was a reminder that Pacific Lutheran is still a threat. They finish the deal this week.	Patrick’s take: No. 9 North Central. Carthage nearly pulled off the upset at Illinois Wesleyan, so the Cardinals should be on the lookout.

Name a team outside the Top 25 which will clinch a bid this weekend.

Keith’s take: Huntingdon (vs. Methodist). Since a Week 1 loss to Guilford, USAC’s Hawks have averaged 37.4 points per game.	Ryan’s take: Lakeland. The Muskies hold the tiebreaker over the two teams with one NACC loss.	Pat’s take: Trine. For that to happen this weekend, Trine must beat Alma and another game must go Trine’s way.
Adam’s take: Huntingdon. The Hawks will clinch the USA South, and will be a popular Quick Hit pick for the second straight week.	Frank’s take: Husson (vs. Alfred State). One of the bigger geography challenges for the NCAA selection committee will be back once again in the Pool of 32.	Patrick’s take: Franklin. The Grizzlies should light up the scoreboard against Anderson and easily clinch the HCAC auto-bid.

How many points will be scored, total, in the Montclair State-Rowan game?

Keith’s take: 24.	Ryan’s take: 31. A trick question since these two teams have played the best in the NJAC in recent outings, and the scoreboard reflected that.	Pat’s take: 22. Only because to say “3” seems harsh.
Adam’s take: 29. More than the 27 total that the Profs have scored during their five-game losing streak.	Frank’s take: 17.	Patrick’s take: 25. Both teams have good kickers, so I’m betting on six field goals and one touchdown.

What team will end the season this week on a high note?

Keith’s take: Thomas More. Saints get win No. 6 against Thiel, but last season in the PAC a disappointment.	Ryan’s take: Mount St. Joseph. Sure, last year’s game vs. Defiance came down to the wire, but recent history is on the Lions’ side.	Pat’s take: Simpson. A win vs. Nebraska Wesleyan, makes the Storm 6-4, three games better than 2016. (Plus they won’t help IWU’s and Concordia’s SOS.)
Adam’s take: Thomas More. The Saints will win their fifth in a row, finish above .500 for the tenth straight season, and send retiring coach Regis Scafe off with a victory.	Frank’s take: Mount St. Joseph. After combining with Franklin to score 105 points in a loss last week, the Lions roar at home to close out their season.	Patrick’s take: Northwestern. The Eagles’ season may have been a disappointment, but they’ll head into the offseason — and send fans home happy — on a four-game winning streak with a win over Crown.

Pick a winner in a conference upset outside the Top 25.

Keith’s take: Ithaca, vs. Union. The Bombers’ 5-3 mark has come against tougher opposition (.559 to .521 SoS) than the Dutchmen’s 7-1, and it will show.	Ryan’s take: MacMurray over St. Scholastica. No doubt Eureka is rooting for this outcome.	Pat’s take: Adrian over Olivet. This is that other result Trine needs to clinch the MIAA this week. Adrian is a misleading 3-5.
Adam’s take: Claremont-Mudd-Scripps. The Stags might steal a win from Chapman, but the Panthers already have the conference title and playoff berth.	Frank’s take: Martin Luther. After a win that looked to potentially seal the UMAC for Eureka last week, the Knights have a chance to catch the Red Devils napping.	Patrick’s take: Utica. A tough Pioneers defense catches Cortland — who were stunned by St. John Fisher last week — looking ahead to Cortaca.

We invite you to add your predictions in the comments below. Download the Around the Nation podcast on Mondays, where Pat and Keith review the Quick Hits that were prescient, and the Quick Misses that were terribly off base.

ATN Podcast 180: Heavy on lightning, light on thunder

Posted on October 16, 2017 by Pat Coleman

A little bit of rain (OK, a lot of rain), a little lightning, half the usual Thunder and a few unbeaten teams getting their first loss made up a good part of the news in Week 7. This was definitely a common sight, and in the case of the Wheaton-North Central game, it didn’t end on Saturday, and it’s still not over. We break down the first half of that game, plus the Oshkosh win over Platteville and look at first losses for Alfred, Wabash, Framingham State and UW-La Crosse. That plus more in this week’s podcast.

This week, we thank Fanraise for sponsoring our podcast. Also, visit the new D3football.com store on Fanraise!

Pat and Keith hand out game balls, find the hidden highlights, the correct pronunciations (it basically doesn’t end in D-III), the interesting stats and much more in the D3football.com Around the Nation Podcast. In addition, Keith gives his take on how Albright College chose to handle its national anthem situation.

The D3football.com Around the Nation Podcast is a regular conversation between Pat Coleman and Keith McMillan and guests covering the wide range of Division III football.

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Quick Hits: The 35,000-foot view

Posted on September 22, 2017 by Pat Coleman

The biggest show in Division III is coming to a major league baseball stadium. Perhaps you’ve heard. But there are 100 other games on Saturday as well, and if you’re not named Tommie or Johnnie, perhaps you’re wondering if we’ll be paying any attention. Our regular Quick Hits crew is Keith McMillan, Ryan Tipps, Pat Coleman, Adam Turer and Frank Rossi. Our sixth spot goes to a guest each week, and this week’s is Howard Sinker. In our attempts to find a neutral Minnesotan to talk about this week, we found Howard, Minneapolis Star Tribune digital sports editor, Minnesota Public Radio sports commentator and senior instructor of Media and Cultural Studies at Macalester College.

— Pat Coleman

What’s the best game this week that hasn’t sold 30,000 tickets?

Keith’s take: Centre at Berry. Preseason, I’d have circled Stevenson-DelVal, but this SAA clash of styles takes the sliver of spotlight left.	Ryan’s take: Stevenson at No. 12 Delaware Valley. Can’t remember the last year the MAC was clear cut. This will give some clarity.	Pat’s take: No. 5 North Central at Millikin. This is a game that is usually a cakewalk but Millikin is on the upswing. It’s under the radar this week.
Adam’s take: Stevenson at Delaware Valley. The Mustangs have a chance to prove that they’ve gotten right by upsetting the No. 12 Aggies.	Frank’s take: Utica at No. 19 Brockport. Utica loves to play the spoiler, and their defense may be able to slow down Germinerio and Morris somewhat..	Howard’s take: Monmouth at Macalester. Battle of Scots in St. Paul features two MWC contenders; Mac opened with ‘hardware game’ victories vs. Carleton and Hamline.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to get upset?

Keith’s take: No. 9 John Carroll. Host Heidelberg has hung 40 twice in road wins over solid teams.	Ryan’s take: No. 9 John Carroll. I’ve been a little uncertain of JCU so far, and last week didn’t help their case.	Pat’s take: None. And fully aware I’m doing this for a second consecutive week. But I don’t see JCU losing like others do..
Adam’s take: No. 13 UW-Platteville. The Pioneers have not impressed in either of their wins, and Lakeland has a potent offense that will test UW-P.	Frank’s take: No. 6 St. John’s. Not much of an upset, except through rankings. Every game is a must-win for St. Thomas now.	Howard’s take: No. 9 John Carroll. Tough matchup with the Student Princes of Heidelberg.

Will Wheaton miss a beat?

Keith’s take: No. This is really for the Thunder to answer; Five players are out, program is national news. But Elmhurst looks beatable amid all that.	Ryan’s take: Yes. But it really won’t be apparent until next week.	Pat’s take: No. I mean, not this week, at least.
Adam’s take: No. The players on the roster will be determined to prove that they can overcome their teammates’ absences.	Frank’s take: Yes. Focus after the trainwreck of a week will be off, and loss of five players will hurt. But Elmhurst won’t beat the Thunder.	Howard’s take: Hard thinking of Wheaton in ‘game terms’ after hazing publicity, but Elmhurst led Thunder until fourth-quarter turnover last year in 10-6 game.

Which surprise 3-0 team makes it 4-0 this week?

Keith’s take: Wooster. Scots have a tough matchup at DePauw, but might be inspired following the death of Clayton Geib.	Ryan’s take: Salve Regina. Although, it’s no cakewalk with undefeated Western Connecticut on the other side.	Pat’s take: SUNY-Maritime. The Privateers have been 4-0 once before, in the year they went 10-0. Alfred State won’t stop them..
Adam’s take: Franklin & Marshall. The Dips have a tough task at Susquehanna, but have been the surprise of the Centennial so far this season.	Frank’s take: RPI. Buffalo State’s two wins were by a total of six points. RPI has rolled. Engineers win their fourth..	Howard’s take: Cheating a bit: Knox. Knox beats Ripon to go 3-0. Surprise? Knox hasn’t won more than three in a season since 2005.

Which team won’t be able to repeat last week’s success?

Keith’s take: Mass. Maritime. Bucs held off Maine Maritime last week. Going to Framingham State is much tougher.	Ryan’s take: Berry. I think opponent Centre is the SAA’s best this year.	Pat’s take: George Fox. I think that even on the road, a WIAC team is better than what Redlands is prepared for.
Adam’s take: Rowan. Profs posted a big road win over William Paterson in Week 3, but will suffer a big home loss at the hands of Frostburg State in Week 4.	Frank’s take: Widener. Albright could’ve fit my surprising 4-0 team, as Lions have looked decent since the big Salisbury win..	Howard’s take: St. Thomas won’t win by 63, St. John’s won’t win by 49.

Official attendance in the Tommie-Johnnie game? (Price is Right rules apply)

Keith’s take: 33,316, clearly a sign from God.	Ryan’s take: 31,157.	Pat’s take: 37,535. Tell me that’s one above anyone else’s pick.
Adam’s take: 33,069. Nice.	Frank’s take: 36,106. It’s No 10 vs. No. 6. So, there had to be at least one of each in my number.	Howard’s take: 34,567.