Quick Hits predicts the first round scores

Posted on November 22, 2019 by Greg Thomas

The story goes, one day on a long ride to a playoff game at Thiel (which tells you how long ago this happened), Pat and Keith decided to pass the time by guessing not just the winner of each first-round playoff game, but the score. And there was born the expectations game: Do we expect a close game? A high-scoring game? A blowout? Does everyone agree on who will win? Those are the factors worth looking at.

Keith McMillan, Ryan Tipps, Pat Coleman, Adam Turer, Frank Rossi and Greg Thomas each take their guesses at scores for each first-round game.

— Pat Coleman (Linfield athletics photo)

Mary Hardin-Baylor bracket
Keith’s take: UMHB 56, Redlands 28 Ryan’s take: UMHB 31, Redlands 10 Pat’s take: UMHB 45, Redlands 24	Adam’s take: UMHB 23, Redlands 17 Frank’s take: UMHB 35, Redlands 17 Greg’s take: UMHB 30, Redlands 14
Consensus: Strong consensus here for a Cru win by two or three scores.
Keith’s take: Berry 35, Huntingdon 31 Ryan’s take: Berry 38, Huntingdon 34 Pat’s take: Berry 56, Huntingdon 17	Adam’s take: Berry 24, Huntingdon 21 Frank’s take: Huntingdon 31, Berry 30 Greg’s take: Berry 38, Huntingdon 13
Consensus: Not quite unanimous, but the panel favors Berry by varying margins.
Keith’s take: UW-Whitewater 42, Monmouth 21 Ryan’s take: UW-Whitewater 42, Monmouth 7 Pat’s take: UW-Whitewater 50, Monmouth 6	Adam’s take: UW-Whitewater 44, Monmouth 24 Frank’s take: UW-Whitewater 47, Monmouth 16 Greg’s take: UW-Whitewater 41, Monmouth 7
Consensus: Unanimous picks for a comfortable Warhawk victory.
Keith’s take: Wartburg 27, Hope 21 Ryan’s take: Wartburg 34, Hope 24 Pat’s take: Wartburg 38, Hope 28	Adam’s take: Wartburg 40, Hope 37 Frank’s take: Wartburg 27, Hope 21 Greg’s take: Wartburg 38, Hope 35
Consensus: It’s a sweep for Wartburg in a high scoring, one score game.

Wheaton bracket
Keith’s take: Wheaton 49, Martin Luther 0 Ryan’s take: Wheaton 50, Martin Luther 6 Pat’s take: Wheaton 62, Martin Luther 6	Adam’s take: Wheaton 50, Martin Luther 6 Frank’s take: Wheaton 56, Martin Luther 10 Greg’s take: Wheaton 56, Martin Luther 0
Consensus: The panel sees top-seeded Wheaton cruising into the second round.
Keith’s take: UW-Oshkosh 18, Central 14 Ryan’s take: Central 28, UW-Oshkosh 27 Pat’s take: UW-Oshkosh 30, Central 20	Adam’s take: UW-Oshkosh 28, Central 27 Frank’s take: UW-Oshkosh 31, Central 20 Greg’s take: UW-Oshkosh 28, Central 10
Consensus: It isn’t unanimous, but the Titans are the panel’s choice to advance by one or two scores.
Keith’s take: Linfield 35, Chapman 27 Ryan’s take: Linfield 31, Chapman 28 Pat’s take: Chapman 28, Linfield 27	Adam’s take: Linfield 19, Chapman 16 Frank’s take: Linfield 35, Chapman 27 Greg’s take: Chapman 24, Linfield 21
Consensus: Split decision for Linfield in what appears to be one of the closer games of the first round.
Keith’s take: St. John’s 38, Aurora 24 Ryan’s take: St. John’s 52, Aurora 13 Pat’s take: St. John’s 54, Aurora 35	Adam’s take: St. John’s 49, Aurora 35 Frank’s take: St. John’s 45, Aurora 14 Greg’s take: St. John’s 49, Aurora 21
Consensus: Aurora likely won’t get completely shut down, but St. John’s should be able to outscore the Spartans and win by multiple scores.

Salisbury bracket
Keith’s take: Salisbury 63, SUNY-Maritime 0 Ryan’s take: Salisbury 63, SUNY-Maritime 0 Pat’s take: Salisbury 68, SUNY-Maritime 0	Adam’s take: Salisbury 57, SUNY-Maritime 9 Frank’s take: Salisbury 55, SUNY-Maritime 10 Greg’s take: Salisbury 56, SUNY-Maritime 7
Consensus: Unanimous predictions here for an easy run to the second round for the Sea Gulls.
Keith’s take: Union 31, Case 21 Ryan’s take: Union 38, Case 17 Pat’s take: Union 24, Case 17	Adam’s take: Union 34, Case 24 Frank’s take: Union 31, Case 21 Greg’s take: Union 27, Case 17
Consensus: Clean sweep for the Dutchmen, generally by about 10 points.
Keith’s take: Muhlenberg 45, MIT 10 Ryan’s take: Muhlenberg 45, MIT 14 Pat’s take: Muhlenberg 56, MIT 6	Adam’s take: Muhlenberg 45, MIT 3 Frank’s take: Muhlenberg 42, MIT 14 Greg’s take: Muhlenberg 42, MIT 7
Consensus: The Mules should overwhelm the Engineers and trot on in to the second round.
Keith’s take: Brockport 22, W. New England 19 Ryan’s take: W. New England 24, Brockport 21 Pat’s take: Brockport 24, W. New England 13	Adam’s take: Brockport 20, W. New England 14 Frank’s take: W. New England 27, Brockport 20 Greg’s take: Brockport 26, W. New England 10
Consensus: Split decision for Brockport, but this game looks to be close.

Mount Union bracket
Keith’s take: Mount Union 63, Hanover 7 Ryan’s take: Mount Union 63, Hanover 3 Pat’s take: Mount Union 56, Hanover 10	Adam’s take: Mount Union 48, Hanover 24 Frank’s take: Mount Union 59, Hanover 7 Greg’s take: Mount Union 61, Hanover 10
Consensus: No surprise here, Mount Union is predicted to advance easily.
Keith’s take: North Central 40, Wabash 25 Ryan’s take: North Central 42, Wabash 10 Pat’s take: North Central 56, Wabash 10	Adam’s take: North Central 38, Wabash 14 Frank’s take: North Central 45, Wabash 21 Greg’s take: North Central 45, Wabash 21
Consensus: North Central’s top-ranked offense sweeps the board with a comfortable win over Wabash.
Keith’s take: Wesley 17, Framingham State 14 Ryan’s take: Wesley 28, Framingham State 20 Pat’s take: Wesley 41, Framingham State 24	Adam’s take: Wesley 21, Framingham State 20 Frank’s take: Wesley 21, Framingham State 20 Greg’s take: Wesley 24, Framingham State 21
Consensus: Wesley is the unanimous pick, but five of our panelists see a one score game.
Keith’s take: Del Val 28, Bridgewater 24 Ryan’s take: Del Val 41, Bridgewater 21 Pat’s take: Bridgewater 17, Del Val 15	Adam’s take: Bridgewater 21, Del Val 14 Frank’s take: Del Val 27, Bridgewater 24 Greg’s take: Del Val 17, Bridgewater 10
Consensus: Split decision for Delaware Valley, with the panel largely seeing a close game that could go either way.

We invite you to add your predictions in the comments below, or tweet at us at @D3Keith, @NewsTipps and @d3football. Download the Around the Nation podcast on Mondays, where Pat and Keith review the picks and the highlights from the weekend’s playoff games.

Quick Hits Week 7: All eyes on Minnesota

Posted on October 18, 2019 by Greg Thomas

This week our Quick Hits panel delivers takes on Johnnie-Tommie, of course, but also points out upsets brewing out east, undefeated runs coming to an end, and which teams are going to go home victorious for the first time this season.

Our regular crew is Keith McMillan, Ryan Tipps, Pat Coleman, Adam Turer, Frank Rossi and Greg Thomas.

— Greg Thomas
Photo by Ryan Coleman, d3photography.com

Which game is the Game of the Week?

Keith’s take: Johnnie-Tommie. I might have gotten it wrong on the pod, but I’m right here. Given the rankings and the atmosphere, don’t think you can go anywhere else for GOTW.	Ryan’s take: The Johnnie-Tommie Game. As Pat would say … next question.	Pat’s take: The Johnnie-Tommie game. Not to go MIAC two weeks in a row, but to be honest, you have to.
Adam’s take: Johnnie-Tommie. This should be unanimous. Next question.	Frank’s take: No. 4 St. John’s vs. No. 11 St. Thomas. It’s a survival game for St. Thomas and a major rivalry game — you can’t ask for much more than that.	Greg’s take: Johnnie-Tommie, yes. But also Hobart @ Ithaca, Middlebury @ Wesleyan, Wartburg @ Simpson, Delaware Valley @ Wilkes, and Alfred @ Cortland make for a nice undercard.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to get upset?

Keith’s take: No. 9 Ithaca. The Bombers (5-0) would probably have to play their worst game of the season to lose to visiting Hobart (4-1), but I don’t like to cop out and say none for this question.	Ryan’s take: No. 19 UW-Platteville. Opponent UW-Stout has been playing better than their record would show, and Platteville is coming off a difficult loss last week.	Pat’s take: No. 12 Salisbury. Rowan has played well against a tough schedule and Salisbury can’t possibly execute as well as it did against Wesley.
Adam’s take: No. 22 Cortland. The Red Dragons have looked impressive, but against inferior competition. The first real test of the season comes in Week 7 against 5-1 Alfred. The Saxons are 4-1, coming off a bye week, and are faced with a must-win.	Frank’s take: No. 22 Cortland (vs. Alfred). Alfred had a bye week in Week 6, while Cortland struggled with Morrisville St. With 21 sacks in five games, the Saxons’ defense needs to reach Cortland QB Brett Segala to win this.	Greg’s take: No. 16 Delaware Valley. If there is a serious challenger in the MAC to the Aggies, it’s got to be the undefeated, home standing Wilkes Colonels.

Pick a winner from a game between unbeaten conference opponents.

Keith’s take: I think Del Val handles Wilkes, which is 5-0 against a schedule that’s 6-16 in its other games, and ranked 209th by one metric and 230th by another.	Ryan’s take: No. 22 Cortland, over Alfred. The Red Dragons’ margins of victory have been impressive all year, though this week starts the first game in a very tough back half of the season.	Pat’s take: St. Norbert, vs. Beloit. This might be the biggest gimme on the board.
Adam’s take: Monmouth. The Scots haven’t lost an MWC South contest since 2014. After laboring through an unexpected bye week due to Grinnell cancelling its season, the Scots will take out their frustration on Illinois College.	Frank’s take: Anna Maria (vs. Dean). This ECFC game could go a long way in deciding the conference winner, since there are just five league games per member. Anna Maria “rings the bell” in Paxton, Mass.	Greg’s take: No. 18 Wartburg. I’m higher on the Knights than the Top 25 is overall and I expect they’ll be able to weather the Storm on Saturday.

Which game are you following that nobody else on this panel is following?

Keith’s take: Morrisville State at Utica: The Mustangs nearly knocked off Alfred and Cortland the past two weeks. They are going to catch someone napping.	Ryan’s take: The middle of the NCAC. With 4-1 OWU squaring off against 3-2 DePauw, and 4-1 Denison against 3-2 Wooster, we’ll get a whole new (clearer?) picture of the conference after this weekend.	Pat’s take: The panel is pretty solid. But I know that if I don’t punch in the score of the Central-Buena Vista game, nobody else will either.
Adam’s take: Misericordia at FDU-Florham. For the second straight season, the Cougars have opened conference play with a win streak. Impressive after the program failed to string together consecutive wins through its first six years. I’ll be keeping an eye on Misericordia as long as the streak is alive.	Frank’s take: Springfield at Merchant Marine. The Mariners can’t get caught looking ahead to a potential NEWMAC undefeated showdown in Week 8 at WPI. Springfield needs to win the game to survive in the NEWMAC race.	Greg’s take: Washington U. @ No. 5 Wheaton. Wheaton has a game in hand against their chief CCIW rivals, but the Bears can formally insert themselves into the CCIW race by duplicating their 2018 upset of the Thunder.

Pick one of the remaining 23 undefeated teams to drop their first game.

Keith’s take: St. Olaf‘s schedule (8-17, 204th, 215th) is not much better than Wilkes’. Bethel gets it done.	Ryan’s take: Wilkes, to Delaware Valley. Though having a loss to a nationally ranked team, the Aggies are still likely to come out on top in the MAC in Week 11.	Pat’s take: Picked one above and will add Wilkes to the list.
Adam’s take: St. Olaf. I discussed this deja vu in today’s podcast. For the second straight season, the Oles opened 5-0. They will likely once again suffer their first loss at the hands of the Royals. Winning just one of their final five contests will give the Oles their best season since 2012.	Frank’s take: No. 4 St. John’s St. John’s has been somewhat inconsistent on offense, while St. Thomas has been more consistent on both sides of the ball. We’ll see if Eau Claire was a fluke or not by the end of this game.	Greg’s take: St. Olaf. I expect a solid rebound game from Jaran Roste and the Bethel Royals and a reminder about the pretty clear tiers that exist in the MIAC.

Pick one of the remaining 28 winless teams to pick up their first win.

Keith’s take: Allegheny (0-5) has had a top-loaded schedule, and will get on the right track against 3-2 Kenyon.	Ryan’s take: Buffalo State, over Rochester. In a game not as close as you’d think between two winless teams.	Pat’s take: Buffalo State. At least we know there will be one.
Adam’s take: Maryville. The only 2018 playoff participant still seeking its first victory of 2019, the Scots face an improved Methodist squad. Maryville’s offense finally got going in Week 6, putting up a season-high 35 points against Huntingdon. The defense will have its hands full once again against running back Vontre Howard and the Monarchs.	Frank’s take: Gettysburg (at Juniata). Juniata has had an inconsistent path this season, making the Week 5 win before the bye potentially lead to a Week 7 loss, if the trend continues.	Greg’s take: Allegheny. The Gators’ first half schedule was tough, but I’m not sure 0-5 is how most saw the Rich Nagy era starting. Kenyon has been a good first half story, but I think it is Allegheny’s turn to notch a win.

We invite you to add your predictions in the comments below. Download the Around the Nation podcast on Fridays, where Pat and Keith review the Quick Hits that were prescient, and the Quick Misses that were terribly off base.

Quick Hits Week 3: Conference clashes and crossovers

Posted on September 20, 2019 by Greg Thomas

This week our panel has their eyes on a pair of Top 25 games to start CCIW play, another key conference opener down south, and a crossover challenge as non-conference play across the country winds down.

Our regular crew is Keith McMillan, Ryan Tipps, Pat Coleman, Adam Turer, Frank Rossi and Greg Thomas.

— Greg Thomas

Which game is the Game of the Week?

Keith’s take: No. 18 Illinois Wesleyan at No. 17 Wheaton: In a conference that could be a four-team race, there won’t be enough playoff spots for all the postseason-worthy teams, so wins Saturday are a must.	Ryan’s take: No. 25 Susquehanna at No. 8 Muhlenberg. I’ve loved watching the rise in recent seasons of these Centennial teams, making this “academic conference” a frequent contender at higher levels.	Pat’s take: No. 13 Berry at Trinity (Texas). Berry has had a good run, while Trinity is an up-and-comer which needs this win.
Adam’s take: Alfred at No. 22 Ithaca. Lots of choices this week, but I think this one has the biggest season-defining stakes. Honorable mention to Baldwin Wallace at Mount Union..	Frank’s take: Stevenson at No. 21 Delaware Valley. With the balance of power in the MAC still likely residing with these two teams, they are both in desperate need of a bounce-back win after Week 2 losses.	Greg’s take: No. 18 Illinois Wesleyan at No. 17 Wheaton. The CCIW is cutting right to the chase. The Titans are in familiar territory, facing a difficult bounce back game against the Thunder after a tough opening loss to UW-La Crosse.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to get upset?

Keith’s take: No. 11 Linfield. I have the Wildcats ranked here as well, but the trip to Redlands will help determine whether that’s because of name recognition.	Ryan’s take: No. 13 Berry (at Trinity). Trinity showed last week against Hardin-Simmons just how tough they are this year – more than able to hang with top-notch opponents.	Pat’s take: None. Despite all of the comparing of scores from the first two weeks, No. 4 St. John’s should be safe from Gustavus.
Adam’s take: No. 13 Berry. I almost got the Trinity upset pick right last week, might as well roll the dice with the Tigers one more time.	Frank’s take: No. 12 Washington & Jefferson (at Carnegie Mellon). The Tartans have looked decent in their two road wins, making this a good challenge for the Presidents. It should be close enough for a potential upset.	Greg’s take: No. 5 North Central. The Bears have a pretty good QB of their own in Johnny Davidson and maybe there’s a little extra juice at Francis Field as the Larry Kindbom farewell tour officially kicks off.

Which conference opener will have the most impact in November?

Keith’s take: No. 13 Berry at Trinity. The SAA could long be looking back at this result while waiting for the Week 11 Centre-Berry clash.	Ryan’s take: No. 18 Illinois Wesleyan at No. 17 Wheaton. Certainly GOTW worth, too, games like this become vital in the CCIW as more teams (think: Wash U) vie for the upper tier.	Pat’s take: No. 18 Illinois Wesleyan at No. 17 Wheaton. The only game close to this is the other CCIW game, as the winnowing starts early.
Adam’s take: No. 5 North Central at No. 24 Wash U. How will the Bears respond in their first game since head coach Larry Kindbom publicly announced his retirement? A home game against the top team in the CCIW will have emotions running high.	Frank’s take: No. 13 Berry at Trinity. The SAA race, in my estimation, is going to be headlined by these two teams — I’m not sold on Centre yet, so this is the de facto too-early championship game for me.	Greg’s take: No. 13 Berry at Trinity. I think the winner of this game goes on to win the SAA and if it that team happens to be Trinity, we could wind up with three tournament teams in Texas which might force some creativity into this year’s bracket.

Which game are you following that nobody else on this panel is following?

Keith’s take: Augsburg at Concordia-Moorhead: Curious to see, after two close losses to ranked teams, what the Cobbers look like against mere mortals.	Ryan’s take: Averett at Ferrum. Despite being 1-1, Averett has impressed this season. And Ferrum has a lot of muscle to flex behind senior running back Brian Mann.	Pat’s take: Aurora at Hope. ut more people should be following this one, because it should be an entertaining game.
Adam’s take: Occidental at Willamette. Two of the nation’s longest losing streaks. Occidental’s 2019 opener. This will be cathartic for whoever emerges victorious.	Frank’s take: Rowan at Hobart. 0-2 Rowan. 2-0 Hobart. Doesn’t sound great, but Rowan played Linfield tough, and Hobart looked mortal against Morrisville St. in Week 2. Should be a tough game.	Greg’s take: No. 11 Linfield at Redlands. I’ll be on site for this game between the name brand in D3 west coast football and a Redlands squad that is off to a red hot start. These two may well be playing for home field in a Round 1 rematch.

Will Thiel end its losing streak against Geneva?

Keith’s take: No.	Ryan’s take: Nope. The Tomcats still have a ways to go before they’re checking off the win column.	Pat’s take: No. Something something last Coke fan standing.
Adam’s take: No. Speaking of long losing streaks, Thiel went from having the fourth-longest losing streak in D-III at the end of 2018 to quickly finding itself at the bottom of the barrel. The streak continues for at least another week or two.	Frank’s take: No. But that Coke commercial…	Greg’s take: Yes! This season has been extinguishing long losing streaks on the regular, so why not make it three weeks in a row? The Tomcats might not get a better shot this season than they have this week against Geneva.

Who wins the MIAA-NACC Challenge?

Keith’s take: The MIAA.	Ryan’s take: The MIAA. The NACC looks a little better on paper, but the Michigan-based conference has been better tested so far this season.	Pat’s take: MIAA. They lost just one game the last time MIAA hosted this challenge. They’ll lose more than one this time.
Adam’s take: MIAA. This one is nearly a toss-up. Aurora gives the NACC hope, against Hope. I’ll call a 5-3 win for the favored conference, with Adrian’s win over Wisconsin Lutheran sealing the deal.	Frank’s take: MIAA. They go 5-3 with the following winners in the eight games: Trine, Eureka, Aurora, Kalamazoo, Concordia-Chicago, Alma, Olivet, and Adrian.	Greg’s take: NACC. 5-3 with Aurora, Lakeland, Concordia-Chicago, Rockford, and Benedictine winning.

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Tag Archives: Delaware Valley

Quick Hits predicts the first round scores

Quick Hits Week 7: All eyes on Minnesota

Which game is the Game of the Week?

Which Top 25 team is most likely to get upset?

Pick a winner from a game between unbeaten conference opponents.

Which game are you following that nobody else on this panel is following?

Pick one of the remaining 23 undefeated teams to drop their first game.

Pick one of the remaining 28 winless teams to pick up their first win.

Quick Hits Week 3: Conference clashes and crossovers

Which game is the Game of the Week?

Which Top 25 team is most likely to get upset?

Which conference opener will have the most impact in November?

Which game are you following that nobody else on this panel is following?

Will Thiel end its losing streak against Geneva?

Who wins the MIAA-NACC Challenge?