Quick Hits: Reaching the midway point

Posted on October 5, 2018 by Pat Coleman

It’s hump week in Division III football: five weeks down, and five weeks remaining after this one. Does it feel like a Wednesday to you? If so, it can only be the best Wednesday ever! Here’s our crew’s predictions for Week 6.

Our regular crew is Keith McMillan, Ryan Tipps, Pat Coleman, Adam Turer and Frank Rossi. Our sixth spot goes to a guest each week, and this week’s is Paul Schreel. Paul is an Ohio Northern grad and former Division III broadcaster now coaching high school football in Arizona.

— Pat Coleman

Which game is the Week 6 game of the week?

Keith’s take: No. 7 Hardin-Simmons at No. 2 Mary Hardin-Baylor. Red-hot teams could serve notice and crack top 5 or flip No. 1 votes.	Ryan’s take: No. 7 Hardin-Simmons at No. 2 Mary Hardin-Baylor. This is my most-anticipated conference title bout every year, and neither team has disappointed this year.	Pat’s take: No. 5 Frostburg State at No. 6 Wesley. The first big battle in the NJAC, which might only have one big battle.
Adam’s take: No. 5 Frostburg State at No. 6 Wesley. A rivalry, in its final year, likely with the conference title at stake. Last year’s OT thriller will be topped.	Frank’s take: No. 5 Frostburg State at No. 6 Wesley. It’s the lowest combined ranking in an East Region matchup I can remember, and the stakes are major with just five Pool C bids available this year. I expect a low-scoring affair.	Paul’s take: No. 7 Hardin-Simmons at No. 2 Mary Hardin-Baylor. With the No. 1 and No. 6 total offenses in Division III facing off, the first defense to force a punt could decide the game.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to get upset?

Keith’s take: No. 9 St. John’s. There’s a Johnnies fan at work and he’s worried about quarterback Jaran Roste and the Royals.	Ryan’s take: No. 9 St. John’s. Bethel is having a resurgence this year and could catch the Johnnies looking ahead to the biggin on Oct. 13.	Pat’s take: No. 22 Whitworth. All the Top 25-on-Top 25 games mean qualifying upset opportunities are few. This pick relies on some overconfidence.
Adam’s take: No. 24 Muhlenberg. The Centennial cannibalization continues as the Mules join Ursinus in the “previously unbeaten” ranks.	Frank’s take: No. 20 RPI. It wouldn’t be an upset on my ballot, because I’ve had Ithaca higher all season. Ithaca’s body of work thus far has been better. Home field helps Bombers win a close game.	Paul’s take: No. 22 Whitworth. A week after a tough win over Linfield, the Pirates will have their hands full traveling to George Fox.

Outside of the ‘big six,’ which Top 25 game will be the most interesting?

Keith’s take: Carthage at Illinois Wesleyan. Remember, Red Men gave UW-Oshkosh a run for its money.	Ryan’s take: No. 22 Whitworth at George Fox. Coming off last week’s win, I’m curious if Whitworth is that good or Linfield was that bad. This’ll help me sort that out.	Pat’s take: Chapman at Redlands. The last game of the night should be a good one, and the SCIAC automatic bid will likely go to the winner.
Adam’s take: No. 22 Whitworth at George Fox. The Bruins could make it two in a row over the Pirates and the NWC could enter Week 3 of conference play wide open.	Frank’s take: Willamette at No. 25 Linfield. Linfield should win big, but their performance so far places a lot in doubt. If Willamette keeps it close, I’d consider dropping Linfield out of my ballot entirely.	Paul’s take: No. 24 Muhlenberg at Ursinus. The Centennial Conference has four legitimate challengers for a title this year. The loser of this game is out of that conversation, though.

Which game are you following that nobody else on this panel is following?

Keith’s take: Alvernia at Misericordia. New and new-ish program have combined for four wins so far this season.	Ryan’s take: Johns Hopkins at Franklin & Marshall. Two teams with a blemish and outside the T25, but I’m not ready to cast either to the curb just yet.	Pat’s take: Whittier at Occidental. Oxy did the right thing and gave Whittier The Shoes after Oxy failed to make the 2017 game. Could Whittier snap its 33-game skid and win them outright?
Adam’s take: Manchester at Mount St. Joseph. I’ll be there to see how these prolific offenses stack up against quality competition, which is not always on the opposite sideline in the HCAC.	Frank’s take: Norwich at Merchant Marine. I’ll be attending this game, as it’s a nearby matchup between two military service academies. If it’s anything like Norwich/Coast Guard two weeks ago, it will be a classic.	Paul’s take: Chapman at Redlands. It looks like the winner will be in the driver’s seat for a SCIAC title and the automatic playoff berth.

It’s hump week in D-III: Who serves notice that they’re going to turn things around?

Keith’s take: Linfield. The 1-2 Wildcats chase a record 63rd consecutive winning season by winning at Willamette.	Ryan’s take: Southwestern. After a solid ASC debut in 2017, my expectations were a lot higher for the Pirates, and the next couple of games are winnable ones.	Pat’s take: Aurora. An 0-4 start, albeit against a slate of decent teams, is unexpected and the Spartans should bounce back.
Adam’s take: Albright (vs. Wilkes). The Lions have played a brutal schedule and have taken a beating. They could start a run to finish over .500 in their final five games.	Frank’s take: Buffalo State. With Alfred coming off a close game vs. Morrisville St., Buffalo State with their first win last week might have enough momentum to upset the Saxons in Buffalo.	Paul’s take: Cal Lutheran. The offense looked good last week against an overmatched Occidental but they will prove it wasn’t a fluke and go on a run in SCIAC play.

Pick an unranked unbeaten team which will lose (to an unranked team) this week?

Keith’s take: Albion. At Hope, which knocks off one of the three 4-0 MIAA teams.	Ryan’s take: Union. Granted, they’re not playing the Hobart of old, but this will still be a tough road for the Dutchmen.	Pat’s take: Albion. The Britons have done well this season and that includes a win vs. Franklin but Hope comes in well-tested in the first five weeks.
Adam’s take: Albion. Hope held a fourth quarter lead over Trine. The Flying Dutchmen regain momentum with a win over the unbeaten Britons.	Frank’s take: Amherst. Middlebury has bounced back from its opening loss, playing winning football as consistently as Amherst. The Panthers shock the Mammoths in Vermont.	Paul’s take: Salisbury. Christopher Newport hosts the Sea Gulls and could hand them their first loss of 2018.

We invite you to add your predictions in the comments below. Download the Around the Nation podcast on Fridays, where Pat and Keith review the Quick Hits that were prescient, and the Quick Misses that were terribly off base.

Around the Nation Podcast 208: Going for 2

Posted on October 1, 2018 by Pat Coleman

We love a gutsy call. Sure, our job isn’t being put on the line when a coach makes the decision to go for two at the end of a key game, but this is Division III — the coach’s job isn’t really on the line on one play call. We love a little gamble, especially when it pays off. Whether you call a Philly Special (or something that looks similar but fools the broadcaster) or something else, rolling the dice and getting it makes for a great highlight. So, for Marietta and Simpson, which chose to go for two, or Wittenberg, which had no choice, it was a big Week 5, and Pat and Keith honor that by going for two with the D3football.com Around the Nation Podcast.

Plus, the Little Brass Bell went back home with the team it came with, nobody was trapping Mary Hardin-Baylor or Hardin-Simmons, UW-Whitewater wore UW-La Crosse out and just maybe The Streak is in play this year. Teams mentioned: Denison, Wittenberg, Simpson, Wartburg, Marietta, Ohio Northern, Wheaton, North Central, Hardin-Simmons, Mary Hardin-Baylor, UW-La Crosse, UW-Whitewater, Linfield, Whitworth, Muhlenberg, Franklin & Marshall, St. Thomas, Concordia-Moorhead, Case Western Reserve, Illinois Wesleyan, Susquehanna, Dickinson, Greenville, Westminster (Mo.), Dubuque, Loras, Wisconsin Lutheran, Rockford, Methodist, Huntingdon, Wesley, Southern Virginia, Martin Luther, St. Scholastica, Brockport, St. John Fisher, Worcester State, Fitchburg State, Louisiana College, Sul Ross State, Millsaps, Husson, SUNY-Maritime, FDU-Florham, Misericordia, Dean, Finlandia, Olivet, Moravian, Gettysburg.

That and more on the D3football.com Around the Nation Podcast. The D3football.com Around the Nation Podcast is a regular conversation between Pat Coleman and Keith McMillan and guests covering the wide range of Division III football.

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Photo: Video frame grab of Simpson’s two-point conversion to win the game. Note that this frame isn’t intended to try to show whether he got a foot down inbounds, but to show that the line judge is in a better position to make the call than any of us are.

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Quick Hits Week 5: Quick hats

Posted on September 28, 2018 by Pat Coleman

Little Brass Bells will be ringing this week, in the eyes and ears of our panel. In a week of big games, that rivalry is the biggest for our panel.

Our regular crew is Keith McMillan, Ryan Tipps, Pat Coleman, Adam Turer and Frank Rossi. Our sixth spot goes to a guest each week, and this week’s is Gordon Mann, longtime contributor to D3football.com and editor at D3hoops.com who also broadcasts football games for Delaware Valley.

— Pat Coleman

What’s the game of the week?

Keith’s take: No. 21 Wheaton at No. 5 North Central. It’s a rivalry, there’s history, and if the Thunder win, a third team, Illinois Wesleyan, takes control of the CCIW.	Ryan’s take: No. 21 Wheaton at No. 5 North Central. The precedent is set. I can’t remember a year when this didn’t have major CCIW implications.	Pat’s take: No. 21 Wheaton at No. 5 North Central. It’s a bell, it’s made of brass, but it’s little so it kinda dings at a high pitch. Does an angel get its wings?
Adam’s take: No. 21 Wheaton at No. 5 North Central. This is the biggest test of the season for both teams and North Central’s best chance to prove itself as a worthy Stagg Bowl contender this year.	Frank’s take: No. 22 Delaware Valley at Stevenson. This game will help define the upper end of the MAC while providing the first test to the Aggies since Wesley.	Gordon’s take: No. 21 Wheaton at No. 5 North Central.This game shapes the CCIW race and part of the playoff bracket. The Thunder’s storm-aided victory last year ups the drama.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to get upset?

Keith’s take: No. 18 Case Western Reserve. Spartans wore Westminster (Pa.) out last year, but casts have changed.	Ryan’s take: No. 22 Delaware Valley. The Aggies aren’t on my ballot and haven’t been consistent enough to give me much confidence.	Pat’s take: No. 22 Delaware Valley. Nobody will emerge unscathed in the MAC this season.
Adam’s take: No. 22 Delaware Valley. The MAC has already been a surprise this season, with Lycoming and Misericordia tied atop the conference standings with Del Val and Stevenson.	Frank’s take: No. 8 Hardin-Simmons. Two prolific offenses. One team looking ahead to No. 2. Give this one to ETBU in a shocking shootout.	Gordon’s take: No. 24 Franklin & Marshall. Lots of Pennsylvania possibilities here. Let’s go Muhlenberg dumping the Diplomats in a nail-biter.

Pick a road team to win impressively.

Keith’s take: Ohio Northern. The Polar Bears and Marietta Pioneers are each undefeated, but there is usually some distance between these programs.	Ryan’s take: Williams. This week is big against Trinity. And I like that the Ephs have shaken off the ugly parts of the early 2010s.	Pat’s take: Huntingdon. Also a good pick for the final question, the Hawks have frustrations to work out at Methodist.
Adam’s take: Rhodes. I agree with this week’s front page poll that Millsaps is one of the most surprising 4-0 teams. A Lynx win on the road over the Majors qualifies.	Frank’s take: Thomas More. The Saints will win very big — the ones traveling a distance to NY — as St. Lawrence QB Grochot was in concussion protocol.	Gordon’s take: No. 16 Trine. The other Thunder start MIAA play with a win at Hope, keeping the Flying Dutchmen as runners-up for a little while longer.

Choose a team to beat someone it lost to last season.

Keith’s take: FDU-Florham. Albright hung 51 on the Devils in 2017, and this is their best chance to shake off an 0-4 start. FDU might get to 4-1 instead.	Ryan’s take: N.C. Wesleyan. The Bishops have had a long stretch off before this week against LaGrange.	Pat’s take: Central. Getting upset by Buena Vista had to sting last year. Won’t happen this time.
Adam’s take: FDU-Florham. As I stated earlier, the MAC is wide open this year. Albright’s tailspin continues as the Devils continue the program’s most impressive start in over a decade.	Frank’s take: SUNY-Maritime. Thomas Wright has thrown for 10 TDs and just 1 INT for the Privateers and needs that efficiency to win vs. Husson.	Gordon’s take: FDU-Florham. We’re contractually obligated to mention the Devils in Quick Hits now. They avenge last year’s 51-33 home loss to Albright.

Which game are you following that nobody else on this panel is following?

Keith’s take: Dubuque at Loras. It’s not the best cross-town rivalry game in Week 5, but the Duhawks are coming off two wins and hosting in a renovated Rock Bowl.	Ryan’s take: Linfield at Whitworth; F&M at Muhlenberg; or Case at Westminister. If my fellow panelists missed any of these, that’s my pick. All great matchups!.	Pat’s take: My burn sat rare font bud ships. Listen to today’s podcast if you need a translation.
Adam’s take: Randolph-Macon at Washington & Lee. Not just because my alma mater is playing a huge conference game and its home opener. These two teams have had a combined 38-day layoff since their last game.	Frank’s take: Occidental at Cal Lutheran. The Kingsmen are surprisingly 1-2 right now. They should beat an undermanned Oxy, but it could be close.	Gordon’s take: Trinity at Williams.K-Mack loves him some NESCAC, but I have more personal interest in this one than others on the panel. Go Bants!

Which of the 49 winless teams leaves the field happy for the first time this season?

Keith’s take: Maryville, vs. Brevard. The Scots have scored just 9 points this season, but they’ve faced playoff-caliber teams in Berry and Centre.	Ryan’s take: Crown. It’s a pick of the winless teams as they face off against Iowa Wesleyan.	Pat’s take: Benedictine. Conference play begins in the NACC and CUW is a good starting point.
Adam’s take: Lakeland. The Muskies finally figure out their offense in the post-Michael Whitley world. The grueling non-conference slate pays off against Concordia-Chicago.	Frank’s take: Gallaudet. The Bison last played on Sept. 8. Anna Maria is averaging 7 points per game. Advantage to a rested Bison squad.	Gordon’s take: Illinois College. The Blueboys feel better after a home win over Beloit on Saturday night.