Time to Change Preseason Basketball

Posted on October 20, 2016 by Dave McHugh

New Jersey City court (Courtesy: NJCU Athletics)

Over the years that I have been involved with Division III basketball, the preseason has undergone some changes. Nothing significant, but changes all the same. I think it is time to make another change and this one would be a bit more significant.

Winter sports like basketball are the only Division III sports that do not have non-traditional seasons, nor are coaches able to get together or work with their teams when the academic year begins. Fall sports have a preseason that begins before any other students arrive on campus. Spring sports are able to have a non-traditional season which can start the first day of classes in September, so coaches can meet (new) students and get teams working together well ahead of their seasons. Winter sports, nothing. The trade-off is there’s a month long practice season for most teams before the actual season begins.

Time to change this. But before my proposal, consider these questions.

Do basketball teams really need a month-plus of practice time?

Is it a good idea that coaches are unable to access their team prior to mid-October?

Is it best that student-athletes are barely able to have contact with their coaching staff prior to practices beginning?

Those are the three questions at the heart of basketball practices options along with the constant concern, especially with college presidents, about keeping the Division III ideals in place that students are not beholden to athletics. They are here on campus to be students first.

That last part is something that can’t be forgotten or dismissed. Any changes need to keep that principle in place. College presidents will snuff out any idea if they feel it hinders the student-first experience. That’s the reason non-traditional seasons haven’t grown, even becoming more restricted.

FDU-Florham women’s basketball practice (Courtesy: Steve Hockstein/for the Star-Ledge)

This is at best, inconsistent if not hypocritical. Obviously, fall sports need to start before academics start and thus athletes are adjusting to academics second. However, spring sports can start their non-traditional seasons as soon as the academic calendar begins. Winter sports, no chance.

When talking to a number of coaches around the country about changes that could considered, one Mid-Atlantic coach pointed out how his inability to be available for his team doesn’t seem to keep those on campus from blaming the program when there is a problem. If a new student comes on campus gets in some kind of trouble in the first couple weeks, he is labeled as being a “men’s basketball player” and thus the connotation is he represents the program. The snowball then starts to roll downhill. But as this coach pointed out, he hasn’t even met with the student-athlete, yet! He isn’t allowed to check in with him, help him adjust to college, give him advice or find him assistance. So how is he a “men’s basketball player” when he hasn’t even been in a team meeting let alone put on a uniform?

As any student-athlete will tell you, their coach and staff are instrumental in helping them adjust to college, the schedule, the life, etc. just as much as an academic advisor. But when a new student comes on campus, the rules prevent them from interacting with their basketball coach. That doesn’t make sense.

Coaches can have one team meeting and one official in-office meeting per student early on. And student-athletes can drop by their coach’s office, but the contact is limited out of season. But one or two meetings in the six to eight weeks prior to practices starting doesn’t seem right.

Let’s also look at the pre-season practice structure. All basketball programs in Division III are allowed to start practices on October 15, though some conferences start later. That’s a minimum of 30 days prior to the start of the season with some exceptions. Considering six practices a week, there are about 26 or so practices leading up to the first day of games, assuming a team starts on Nov. 15. Doing some quick math around Division III, that’s more practices than any other team sport in Division III including football.

So there is your trade off. You can’t meet with your team at the beginning, but there are a few extra practices. Not sure that trade off makes sense either.

One of the other comments I have heard over the years, especially from coaches, is that there may be too many practices. By the time the season starts, teams are worn out practicing against themselves. Sure, they aren’t playing the best possible basketball in games when the season starts, but I would contend this isn’t an indication about needing more practice time. I’d argue playing opponents helps teams prepare, not more practice. There is only so much they can learn practicing against each other.

So let’s make a trade off that reduces the number of pre-season practices while allowing coaches more time to help their student-athletes outside of the game.

St. Thomas men’s basketball practice (Courtesy: New York Times)

Here is what I propose, as a starting point, to provide an idea how these changes would benefit and effect programs:

–       There’s a “non-traditional” period from the start of classes until four weeks after classes begin or end of September, whichever comes first. During that period, teams have a two-week window that opens once the first practice and/or meeting takes place.
–       Two full-team practices allowed. Additional practices are limited to six players max. No player can participate in more than seven practices.
–       Two full-team meeting can take place during two-week window, except one must coincide with a practice.
–       Preseason practices pushed back from October 15 to October 25 approximately

The most important factor is coaches could meet with their teams far earlier in the year in a more meaningful way. Instead of a single meeting as a way of saying hello, coaches now get a chance to run some light practices and actually be there to help students (re)adjust to the academic year. At the same time, it allows coaches and athletes to get on the same page for the season ahead and waste less time in preseason trying to fix things like bad form.

Several coaches I spoke with pointed out how frustrating it is to see one of their team members in the gym shooting free throws or jump shots and they have bad habits. However, because it is prior to October 15, they cannot help fix them.

Another issue this helps to address is pick-up games that teams play before practice begins. Instead of playing a style the coaching staff wants to benefit the team, the pick-up games are more like street-ball. Come October 15, the coaching staff has to take more time getting the team refocused on the right offense, defense, and plays. No wonder teams need so much time in preseason to get ready.

Smith College women’s team huddle (Courtesy: Matthew Cavanaugh for the Boston Globe)

Giving coaches time in September to fix bad habits, hand out the playbook, and run through basic schemes doesn’t seem like a bad idea. And while this proposal does cut the amount of preseason practices, they won’t be needed if the coach has gotten his or her team focused on being better prepared when the preseason begins.

One thing college presidents are not going to endorse is full-fledged practices. Even non-traditional seasons don’t have regular-season style practices. So there is no way presidents will adopt this new schedule if teams are having what seems like regular season practices at the beginning of the academic year. Not when the season is two months away. But another coach I chatted with out of the Northeast had a better idea: take the D1 model and allow coaches to work with small groups of players.

If practices were restricted to four to six players per session, that would be invaluable. Practices would be a bit lighter and more focused. This means less time needed in the gym. This also gives coaches the chance to get to know individual players better early on. And it allows for less wasted time (as the coach works with the guards, the post players are standing around and vice versa).

By only working with smaller groups, this proposal will also keep programs from practicing every day. However, coaches will always try and find some loopholes, so a restriction of how many practices a player can participate in will be needed as well. In a two-week window (12 allowed days), players could not participate in more than seven practices and two meetings.

Another benefit of a September practice period is open tryouts. You may not realize it, but a number of programs, including some of the best in the country, still hold open tryouts. Instead of putting those at the beginning of the pre-season and taking time away from preparing the team, now a coach can hold those open tryouts in September and get these new student-athletes prepared for the upcoming season a little sooner. Maybe it doesn’t work to have open tryouts and two practices in September, but this is a fixable problem.

There will be some others details to figure out as well. For example, non-traditional seasons cannot be mandatory or have affect whether a player makes a team. Since this proposal takes time away from the pre-season, this might be a challenge. Coaches won’t want to lose part of their 19-week season to a time-frame when athletes aren’t required to be there.

16 JAN 2016: The NCAA Division III Business Session during the 2016 NCAA Convention takes place at the Marriott Rivercenter in San Antonio, TX. Justin Tafoya/NCAA Photos

But the biggest challenge here is convincing the college presidents. Some will contend they don’t want student-athletes getting their schedules buried with athletics and that they should get into the academic schedule before basketball starts.

From my experience, this doesn’t make sense. I benefited from being on a fall sports team. I was able at the beginning of the year to get into a routine with classes, study-sessions, practices, games, etc. Basketball players have to readjust right before or after midterms to add in practices and eventually games for the rest of the semester. That can be even more detrimental than having it all at the beginning of the year.

The key to any proposal that brings practices into September is to balance academics and athletics, and respect that Division III athletes are not here to only play sports. Limiting the number of practices and size of practices is a practical way to find that balance. And it allows coaches to help the team start the academic year strong and maybe help players avoid pitfalls that will be too late to fix come mid-October. It’s better to fix those problems early in the semester than later when eligibility for the second semester becomes an issue.

And this will also reduce the length of the preseason. Knocking at least ten days (up to nine practices) off the schedule could do wonders for teams. It allows players to focus on midterms and other academic needs at the midway point of the first semester without the start of practices distracting them. The Centennial and NESCAC conferences start later for these kinds of reasons. The Centennial waits until all of its schools have made their way through midterms and mid-semester breaks. The NESCAC waits until November 1 with the old-school mentality of not having too much cross-over with fall sports. The premise isn’t a bad one and neither conference has shown any ill effects for the most part.

Babson men’s basketball practicing at Salem Civic Center (Courtesy: Babson Athletics)

All and all, the idea is to make this a win-win. Allow basketball coaches to connect with their players at the beginning of the year, like coaches in fall or spring sports can. Give players a support system early in the year, when new students are more likely to need the help balancing all the different elements of being at college. Reduce preseason to something more reasonable while also helping coaches make sure players are on the same page, without compromising academics.

The proposal here may not be perfect as delivered. But something needs to be done to give coaches the ability to help their players while also reducing a long, drawn-out preseason of what is already a long regular season especially, for those programs that play deep into March.

(EDITORIAL NOTE: Several people have pointed out that student-athletes and coaches are allowed to meet when ever they want in the off-season when only discussing academics or anything but basketball and the team. I pointed out there are restrictions to one team meeting and one individual meeting in this article. I agree and understand that players and coaches can meet and chat often when not discussing hoops and that can be a benefit at the beginning of the year to help a student-athlete (re)adjust. However, I do want to emphasize that many coaches struggle with this and some student-athletes don’t understand that when told of the restrictions in place for meeting with coaches. I stand by my point that opening up the meeting allowance a little bit especially to talk more about basketball should be allowed. This is especially important with how much fall and spring coaches are able to discuss their sports at the beginning of the academic calendar.)

Lancaster Bible: Go undefeated or go home

Posted on February 26, 2016 by Dave McHugh

We have arrived at an interesting crossroads in Division III men’s basketball. Every year there are good teams who need to win their conference tournaments to qualify for the NCAA Tournament. But this year, we see a very good team who actually has to win their conference tournament just to make sure they go undefeated.

Over the last few seasons we have commented, argued, lamented, and even shaken our heads that Albertus Magnus would have to win their conference to get into the NCAA Tournament despite two or three losses. But we also understood it. Teams like Albertus Magnus, Southern Vermont, PSU-Behrend, St. Vincent, Northwestern (Minn.) and others who have been nationally ranked need to prove themselves outside of their conference and usually stumble at that task. These teams are all losing usually their third game in a conference tournament (or championship) which everyone tends to agree is the death nail.

But to lose your first game in the conference tournament and not get in? How did we get here?

I am not sure I know where to put a finger on it, but we can certainly start pointing at when the Strength of Schedule (SOS) numbers started to be trusted and more of the old guard who leaned heavily on win-loss percentage (WL) started to rotate off committees. After what had been a horrific experience with the Quality of Wins Index, the SOS was born and evolved, but it wasn’t trusted. Why would you trust another strength metric when the previous one had gone down in flames? But as the SOS evolved and people better understood how it worked and it more importantly proved to be consistent, those on committees started to buy in. The moment we should have realized the SOS was going to play a major role a few years ago when the men (and other committees around Division III) decided to add in a multiplier for home and away games.

The evolution of the multiplier was because some coaches either for a long time had been parking themselves at home, acting like a dictator, making sure anyone who wanted to play them out of conference came to their gym. Or coaches figured out that it would be easier for them to not travel and instead play at home to bolster their SOS – less risk. This resulted in a few years where the SOS wasn’t adding up to what everyone knew and felt about teams and schedules and it was giving some teams a major advantage to remain at home for both weekends of the NCAA Tournament (thanks to the inflated SOS they had built without leaving their gym in the first place). The multiplier was added and it quickly made an impact. Sure, it was heavy handed at first with 1.4 for road games and .60 for away games, but that was soon adjusted to 1.25 and .75. But no matter, the multiplier and thus the SOS shook up Division III basketball. (It also coincided with more games being counted as in-region and that helped bolster scheduling as well.)

As the SOS gained momentum and trust, it also started to take over conversations on Regional Advisory Committees (RAC) and on the national level. Soon we all could see teams seemed to be ranked higher more because of their SOS than their WL. But we also saw the internal fights not only on the RACs, but between RACs when one region might rank more heavily on SOS because those on the committee trusted it more and another region which clearly was leaning on WL because there were members who didn’t want the WL to lose importance. This was all seemingly without caring for the other criteria.

Then a few years ago we started hearing about a way that at least the national committee was trying to work to understand the differences between SOS and WL. What does it mean to be 20-2 with an SOS of .510 versus being 17-5 with an SOS of .570? There was no way to grade those two. The committees were left with trying to understand an SOS number they trusted but couldn’t truly breakdown across regions, between conferences, and head-to-head with teams. Thus the .030 SOS difference to 2-games ratio emerged. Groundbreaking. Criteria-shifting. An ah-ha moment in Division III basketball.

Now the committees had a measuring stick to compare teams with. Even if it didn’t give them a deciding factor, it did give them a way to lean if it was obvious. Now a team that was 20-2 with a .510 could be adjusted to roughly a 16-6 while the 17-5 team with a .570 could be adjusted to 21-1 when compared to the other team’s SOS. (20-2 w/.510 = 16-6 w/.570; 17-5 w/.570 = 21-1 w/.510).

At first they didn’t extrapolate out from .030=2 to .060=4 and beyond. We were told last year and years before that the math seemed to get fuzzy drawing that particular straight a line. But this year the committee seems to be clearly drawing that line.

And that’s how we have gotten to looking at Lancaster Bible who has a .422 SOS, being undefeated, and not even regionally ranked in the East (not one of the more difficult regions to be ranked). The SOS has taken on a significant role despite the fact none of the criteria is supposed to be prioritized. LBC’s SOS sticks out like a sore thumb. It is hard to ignore.

Lancaster Bible celebrated going 25-0, but will need to go 27-0 to make the NCAA Tournament. (Lancaster Bible athletics photo)

Just to get LBC regionally ranked in the first place means comparing them to SUNY Geneseo who sits sixth this week. Here is the breakdown (using data the RAC and national committee would have been looking at through Sunday):

LBC: 21-0 or 1.000 (in-region/D3) 1-0 vRRO .422 SOS 24-0 (overall)
Geneseo: 17-7 or .708 (in-region/D3) 2-4 vRRO .536 SOS 17-8 (overall)

If we only go by the .030=2 ratio, we need to adjust to the .114 difference between the two teams’ SOS. To be fair, we will only draw the line to .090=6 because we don’t want to round up to the next break of .120=8. LBC now has the equivalent of a 15-6 (.714) in-region record while Geneseo is up to a 23-1 (.958) record. Ouch.

But is that fair? Should the line be that straight? Can anyone actually sit down and say that because .030=2 that means .060=4? Or .090=6? When working with metrics like this that is hard to say.

Now the D3 numbers guru, Matt Snyder, contends the ratio shouldn’t cross metrics. That a number like .030 shouldn’t be compared to a solid games number like 2. It should be more like .030=.080 (winning percentage).

If that is the case, let’s readjust the numbers. LBC now has a winning percentage of .760 when translated to a .536 SOS and Geneseo has a winning percentage of .948 translated to a .422 SOS. LBC’s winning percentage is actually better in this scenario and Geneseo’s doesn’t go up as high. However, it still leaves LBC out in the cold. And no, the vRRO isn’t helping and the committee probably isn’t getting far enough into the secondary criteria to give LBC credit for three more wins.

Lancaster Bible isn’t going to make the NCAA Tournament if they finish the season 25-1 or 26-1. It is obvious. And one could argue it isn’t fair.

Lancaster Bible has a number of things going against them. They play 18 conference games in a conference that arguably is one of the worst in the country. They have no choice but to play 18 games against teams whose own data is poor and they only can play seven games out of the conference to improve their situation. At some point, one would argue we shouldn’t be punishing teams like Lancaster Bible who are still winning no matter what their conference situation is. That straight line between SOS and WL probably should be more of a curve that eventually hits a point where too large of a discrepancy between SOS numbers can’t be easily measured in hard number of games or winning percentage adjustments. We can probably safely assume that SOS numbers on the extreme, like Lancaster Bible is on the low end, are rare. We can probably also safely assume that SOS numbers in the middle are far more common. So why would an extreme SOS be treated the same as those closer to the middle? I get that .030=2 when dealing those comparisons in the middle two-thirds, but it feels a bit extreme when dealing with SOS numbers well off the middle. It isn’t like a team in LBC’s situation can go and win MORE games to offset the SOS primarily affected by the conference. The same is true for teams like in the NESCAC last year who had extremely high SOS numbers; at some point how many games do they have to lose to bring their SOS back to the middle and more realistic a positioning?

That last example actually gets to what I think is an inadvertent double-standard. Last year North Central finished the season with an 18-8 record and a gaudy SOS of .587. In almost every criteria comparison against other teams using .030=2, North Central wins. You couldn’t overcome their SOS number. But they didn’t make the NCAA Tournament because the national committee basically said they lost too many games. In other words, great schedule, but you need to win more to qualify as an at-large.

The committee(s) seems to not be taking the same approach when it comes to Lancaster Bible. Instead of saying, they have done everything actually possible in this situation to overcome their SOS by winning every single game on their schedule, the committee(s) is saying, your SOS is so poor you can never overcome it. No chance.

No chance? So North Central puts together a ridiculously good schedule, but are not rewarded for that SOS because they didn’t win enough games. North Central actually could overcome the problem by winning one or two more games, something they have done this year. Lancaster Bible has a ridiculously bad schedule, but are not rewarded for the fact they at least went out and didn’t lose. They pretty much can’t do anything more if they are an at-large team and only lost their final game of the season.

Those previous examples we showed of teams who didn’t, or weren’t, going to make the NCAA Tournament without an automatic bid at least had lost two or three games to change the equation. LBC has lost none and at worst will have one. It seems strange you can ding a team and keep them from making the tournament based on the W-L not being good enough against a really good SOS, but then turn around and ding a team and possibly keep them out of the tournament based on a near-perfect W-L no matter the SOS.

There will be teams who make this year’s NCAA Tournament as at-large teams because of incredibly good SOS numbers, but lost five, six, seven, or more games. If the Chargers miss out, it will be simply because they lost their first game in their final game of the entire schedule. That really seems backwards. Wins and losses eventually trumps a really good SOS. Why can’t wins and a lack of losses also eventually trump a really bad SOS? We already know there is a line around three losses. Are we comfortable drawing a line at one loss?

Now, Lancaster Bible is not an innocent bystander. They have one of the worst SOS numbers in the entire country. They in fact have the worst SOS in their conference! But there is a reason they are at the bottom of the NEAC in terms of SOS. The NEAC is full of programs that other teams will either schedule to help improve their own team or to use as fodder for what might be an already difficult schedule. That or they want to warm up to the start the season or restart after the exam/holiday break with an easier opponent. Bryn Athyn has a .484 SOS. Do you really think that is because Bryn Athyn is able to schedule better in their third season of existence than Lancaster Bible can?

No, it’s because LBC has been good for several years now. They have lost in the conference finals the last few years, missing out on the NCAA Tournament as a result despite a 24-3 record last season. They ended up qualifying for the NCCAA Division II tournament and won the national title in a four-round tournament. They are no longer considered fodder for other teams around them in the Mid-Atlantic or Atlantic Regions nor in their own East Region. Teams don’t want to play them because they might actually lose! But because LBC can’t schedule tough opponents doesn’t let them off the hook.

The previous coaching staff put together a sub-par out-of-conference schedule in the eyes of SOS and regional opponents of significance. Of the seven games they scheduled, only one ended up being against a team that even enters the regional conversation, Franklin and Marshall. LBC played them thanks to the fact they went to Messiah’s tournament and the Falcons didn’t want to play F&M or New Jersey City in the opening round. Otherwise, the schedule was full of either have-beens or never-have-beens including one, Valley Forge, that doesn’t even count in the eyes of the NCAA (Valley Forge is in their second provisional year of the four-year Division III process; Valley Forge is the very definition of a fodder team in the Mid-Atlantic and Atlantic regions). Of the six out-of-conference opponents on LBC’s schedule this year that they could control (F&M being the exception), NONE of them have a winning record.

But the NEAC doesn’t help. Of the 12 conference opponents and 18 games in LBC’s schedule, only three have winning records. LBC played 14 games in conference against teams with a total record of 64-156 (.290). Playing against Morrisville State (18-7) once, SUNYIT (Poly) (14-12) once, and Gallaudet (18-7) twice only improved the conference opponents winning percentage to 114-182 (.385). You simply cannot overcome that when nearly three-quarters of your schedule is against opponents who can’t win even 40-percent of their games. Nor when half of your schedule is against teams who can’t win 30-percent of their games.

What is even worse? NEAC expansion from the outside and from within forces LBC to play teams like Bryn Athyn twice, who don’t even count towards the NCAA criteria (thus the difference of games between LBC’s in-region/D3 record and their overall). For LBC, it is a lose-lose-lose scenario: forced to play them twice; the wins essentially don’t count and they don’t help the SOS; and LBC certainly better not lose to those teams, either. The optics of that are even worse!

The NEAC’s playing schedule, make up of teams, institutional philosophies, and the fact many are fodder for better teams doesn’t help squads like LBC get into the NCAA Tournament. The conference has shown it can produce really good, top-notch programs like Morrisville State who took advantage of conference titles and marched themselves to the Sweet 16 (’13) and then the Elite 8 (’14) in back to back seasons. SUNYIT got to the Sweet 16 prior to that.

Other conferences, especially large ones have found ways to help their top teams. Whether it’s not forcing teams to play every single team in the conference twice or even once (divisional conferences sometimes only have a team play half of the other division) or they only allow a certain number of teams into the conference tournament (which the NEAC does). Some conferences will also protect the top seeds from taking on teams early in their conference tournaments that may further hurt their SOS or accidentally knock out the conference’s best hope in the post-season using a bye or double-bye system (the OAC women in the past and the CUNYAC this season used the double-bye system). The double-bye usually keeps the top seeds safe from a bad SOS hit and protects them from losing a game early that will certainly knock them out of the post-season discussion.

Some may ask if Lancaster Bible or others in their situation should consider moving conferences. I am sure the idea has crossed the minds of those at LBC, but it doesn’t help programs immediately (it is at least a two-year process) and with a team like LBC, where are they going to go? The MAC Commonwealth, CAC, Centennial, and Landmark (all of which surround LBC) aren’t looking to expand and LBC doesn’t necessarily fit into those conferences very well, other than possibly the CAC. If they aren’t going to fit into the MAC Commonwealth, then the Freedom in the Atlantic Region is out of the question and they certainly don’t fit the NJAC or the CUNYAC models. There is the Skyline, but would that conference want to add another long trip when they already have Sage in the mix? (Merchant Marine is leaving the Landmark and rejoining the Skyline because of scheduling problems. Can you imagine them being okay with a trip to central Pennsylvania every year?) Don’t look at the East Region, because the SUNYAC, Empire 8, Liberty League are not options for LBC. There is the AMCC in the Great Lakes Region, but I’m not sure that’s really being something the AMCC would be interested in doing.

So LBC is stuck in the bed they are in. They can only control their out-of-conference schedule which coach Zach Filzen admitted on Hoopsville on Thursday needs to be fixed moving forward (he inherited this season’s schedule when he took over in June). But the conference, and others similar, needs to look at how they can help as well whether it is changing the scheduling to allow more out-of-conference games or protecting the top seed to avoid catastrophe.

It also gets back to the selection and ranking criteria. There can’t be such a rigid line that a team who does everything it possibly can outside of winning a game against a conference opponent for possibly a third time can’t get into the NCAA tournament. How can the WL trump a really good SOS, but it can’t trump a really bad SOS?

Everyone you talk to who has seen Lancaster Bible in action says they are a legitimate Top 25 team. If they continue, they will certainly be a team that can repeat what Morrisville State did. They are good enough talent wise to compete with some of the best in the country. But they won’t get there unless they actually go perfect for the regular season. It almost seems better if they had tanked some of their games earlier in the season so we could look at their resume and say, “well, they have a poor SOS and they couldn’t even win against that schedule. Of course they have to win their conference title. With that many losses against that SOS, they stand no chance as an at-large.”

As it stands now, Lancaster Bible stands no chance at an at-large even if they only lose the final game of the season.

Dave’s Top 25 Ballot – Week 10

Posted on February 16, 2016 by Dave McHugh

Whitworth moved up in another shake up of Dave’s Top 10 – and the rest of the Top 25

BRUTAL!

It always seems that once a year the day Regional Rankings are released there is carnage… or at least the week of that release. But I did NOT see last Wednesday coming or what would result the rest of the week. I figured we had another week before things might get a little crazy as teams are focused on conference postseasons and such.

Nope. Last week was brutal.

You may remember last week I blew up my ballot, considered at least 20 teams outside of my Top 25, shook up most of the ballot, and replaced four of the teams on my ballot. Whelp, this week was nearly the same. I ended up writing down and diving deep into 23 teams (meaning I was seriously considering 48 teams!), reshuffled nearly the entire Top 10, and blew up basically everything from about 17 down. It results in replacing five teams and shaking my head quite a bit.

I keep threatening to throw darts. I am not sure why I didn’t resort to that this week.

Not much else I can say. I saw a lot of games this week in person or online (though, I missed an awesome opportunity to see a Top 10 battle, which I talked about on Hoopsville Sunday) and really tried to give as many teams I have questions about a fair shake. It is just amazing how many teams that ends up including.

Plenty more to say about a lot of the teams on my ballot, and who fell off, so here we go:

1 – Augustana^ (Unchanged)

2 – Benedictine (Unchanged)

3 – Whitworth* (Up 2)

Christopher Newport has a lot of good pieces, including on the bench, which make them dangerous. Courtesy: Christopher Newport Athletics

4 – Christopher Newport* (Up 3)
I got a chance to see the Captains in person this weekend. Damn they are good. Granted, the York (Pa.) game isn’t exactly the best place to compare against, especially since YCP played hard in the second half to make it interesting for a brief moment. However, Christopher Newport has a ton of weapons and to paraphrase Scott Guise at YCP they have players coming off the bench who could start for a lot of teams in the Mid-Atlantic. I agree with Ryan Scott who said recently this is a team who could make serious run for Salem considering the bracket they will probably run through.

5 – Marietta (Up 5)
The Pioneers put their foot down on the Great Lakes region this past week. Beating both Mount Union and John Carroll, they proved that the OAC and possibly those wanting to go to Salem via the Great Lakes will have to go through Marietta to get it done. Very impressive. Certainly a statement week. Here’s hoping the Pioneers use it to keep themselves motivated, versus losing focus after two major games.

6 – St. Thomas* (Down 2)

7 – Hope (Down 1)

John Carroll lost control of their season, ever so slightly, last week.

8 – John Carroll (Down 5)
Rough week for the Blue Streaks… who saw their 21-game win-streak to start the season come to an end. I wouldn’t have dinged them too much for losing to Baldwin Wallace first, though not the team I expected them to lose to, but they couldn’t regain their footing before Marietta kept them streaking in the wrong direction. I still think John Carroll is a dangerously good team, but they have to forget about these two losses with Mount Union up next and then a good showing needed in the conference tournament if they want to enter the NCAA Tournament strong.

9 – Ohio Wesleyan (Down 1)
I thought about moving the Battling Bishops down a little further after another odd loss, this time to Wabash, but there is a buffer below them where I don’t think the teams below are better. However, it is another head-scratching loss for Ohio Wesleyan. I hope they haven’t peaked too early and are running out of gas. A lot of teams this part of the season are licking their wounds from the grind and OWU is clearly in that boat, but they have to find a way to recover, rest, and respond… because they missed a prime opportunity to regain first place in the NCAC for themselves by losing to Wabash.

10 – Elmhurst (Down 1)

St. Norbert is still undefeated in conference. A feat that has them readily moving up the IIAC.

11 – St. Norbert (Up 2)

12 – Lancaster Bible (Up 2)

13 – Johnson and Wales (Down 2)
I actually figured the way the Wildcats were blistering the conference they would go undefeated in the GNAC. They proved that point by thumping Lasell (who is second in the conference) earlier last week, but Albertus Magnus made up for a 55-point beatdown earlier in the season with a confident eight-point win on Saturday. I give AMC’s Mitch Oliver most of the credit for that win considering his ability to adjust, but the Wildcats need to be a bit like Teflon and let that loss slide off and get back to work in the final week of the season before the conference tournament begins.

14 – Susquehanna^ (Down 2)

15 – Alma (Unchanged)

16 – Whitman (Up 1)

17 – Amherst^ (Up 3)

Plattsburgh State wants to make sure they are wearing white during the SUNYAC tournament.

18 – Plattsburgh State (Down 2)
Wow! The Cardinals got blitzed by Oswego State! At first, I thought about dropping Plattsburgh State significantly as a result, but then I considered two things: Oswego is playing really well (though digging out of an early season hole) and there really aren’t that many teams below Plattsburgh I would feel comfortable putting ahead of them. That one loss doesn’t change the fact they are in control of the SUNYAC which will mean a lot of teams making a very long trip to try and knock them off.

North Central (Ill.) finally cracked into Dave’s Top 25.

19 – North Central (Ill.) (Unranked)
OK… I am ranking the Cardinals. I still have some reservations with North Central, but they finally got a win I have been waiting for. NCC has played a lot of good teams this season, which means their have an incredible SOS, a respectable number of regionally ranked opponents, and more. However, they can’t seem to get a significant win until last week and some of their resume has faded near the end of the season (Chicago, Mount Union, etc.). So, I am ranking North Central this week, but I am rather confident they will lose at least one more game in the next two weeks (in the CCIW tournament) if they don’t do it first on the road against North Park this weekend.

20 – Rochester* (Unranked)
The UAA is just crazy this year! This was Chicago’s to take just a few weeks ago and all of the sudden it is Rochester who has won eight straight and sits in a tie with Emory on top of the rankings. And with three games to play, NYU and Chicago are only two games back waiting for Rochester and Emory to stumble. But back to the Yellow Jackets who, like I said, have won eight straight including beating NYU who beat Emory this weekend. Rochester is also well positioned in the first regional rankings and after this weekend I can’t imagine that changes … meaning if the UAA is going to get an extra bid to the NCAA Tournament, Rochester might be their best bet – if they don’t surprisingly win the conference!

Babson returns to Dave’s ballot thanks to winning 11 of their last 12 games.

21 – Babson^ (Unranked)
Hard to ignore the Beavers any more. They have won seven straight and 11 of their last 12 and taken firm control of the NEWMAC race. In the grand scheme of things, their five losses aren’t bad, though only one or two are “good” (Amherst and Tufts). However, this is how I expected this team to play this season and maybe they have found themselves at the perfect time to make a respectable run back to Salem.

22 – Virginia Wesleyan^ (Unranked)
Quietly, the Marlins are reemerging as the team to beat out of the South Region. Dave Macedo has gotten the squad pointed in the right direction and they have now won 9 of their last 10 (though, Randolph-Macon trounced them) and 12 of their last 14. But, I am a little nervous. They are still not dominating teams, though it looks like they have figured out how to scrap for wins and win tight games which where letting slip through their hands earlier this season. They are also now on top of the ODAC.. but that doesn’t really mean much in the grand scheme of things because no match-up at the Salem Civic Center appears to be easy this year – or any year for that matter.

Tufts will due battle in the NESCAC conference tournament starting this weekend.

23 – Tufts (Unranked)
I have been watching Tufts for weeks. And while they have a recent loss to Trinity that has me uneasy (and debating about putting Trinity here instead), there is something about how Bob Sheldon’s team is play – including an impressive win over Amherst recently – that I like. Though, I will admit I didn’t like it necessarily last week. They have at least followed up the win with more wins. Coincidently they finished with a win on the road at Williams Saturday and will have a rematch this Saturday in the NESCAC quarterfinals (at Trinity). That is something that could easily derail the Jumbos if they don’t watch out.

24 – Northwestern (Minn.) (Down 3)
No major reasons I have been moving Northwestern down my ballot except I have been making room for teams I think are better than the Eagles. However, I will say when I see their SOS this week is unofficially** a .399 I get very concerned. Northwestern has basically played no one, especially in the UMAC. And while that didn’t mean much last season leading them to an incredible run in the NCAA Tournament… I think it is a telling sign this season. They also are not going to get into the tournament unless they take care of business in the UMAC tournament.

PSU-Behrend nearly dropped out of Dave’s Top 25 after losing to Medaille last week.

25 – PSU-Behrend (Down 7)
Not only did they lose a conference game they shouldn’t be losing, but there are other teams surging that need to get put ahead of them in the poll – thus a drop of seven spots for the Lions. Here is another team basically in a win-the-conference-or-go-home boat – as they were last year when they missed out on the tournament. They may only have two losses, but Behrend doesn’t feel like a Top 25 team anymore… though I am staying with them for right now.

Dropped Out:

Mount Union (Previously 19)
For as good a week as Marietta had, Mount Union and John Carroll had the opposite. The problem with the Purple Raiders is they now have seven losses and are 4-4 in their last eight. Three HUGE games coming up including against John Carroll. If Mount Union wants to put together any hope for an at-large argument (assuming, thus, they have lost in the conference tournament), they cannot lose those three. (Of course, after I wrote this blog, but before i posted it, they lost to Muskingum on Monday night.)

Wooster (Previously 22)
Just when I thought the Scots had figured things out, they stumble again. You quickly forget about wins over Ohio Wesleyan when you come back and lose to Hiram. I know Hiram is a much improved team, that isn’t the issue. The issue is Wooster isn’t consistent this season and thus I am not comfortable with them in my Top 25.

Emory let the UAA lead slip out of their grip, but three games remain in what can only be described as a chaotic conference race.

Emory (Previously 23)
Just when I buy in, they stumble, too. I am not one of those voters who thinks NYU is a great team (or at least a Top 25 team), thus the loss by Emory is not a good one in my book. They had a chance to keep control of the UAA, but now put themselves in a must-win situation. Their saving grace is their insane SOS (.600) which will probably still keep them in the at-large conversation in a very loss-heavy South Region in less than two weeks.

Aurora (Previously 24)
Eh. Another team I buy into and suffers a loss I can’t explain or understand. It isn’t that Concordia (Wis.) is a bad team, but if Aurora is a Top 25 team they win that game. I like Aurora, but I don’t like that loss. It was part of the carnage, I realize. But when you are at the bottom of a voter’s ballot, any slip up will most likely cost you.

F&M is still a work in progress for a program that has been maybe over achieving since last season.

Franklin & Marshall* (Previously 25)
I got a chance to finally see the Diplomats in person this year (I usually see them at least once, more likely twice a season; saw a lot of them on video streams this year) and I wasn’t impressed. What I saw equaled what the voice in the back of my head had been saying for a long time. They have some nice players, but the starting five has a few holes and they cannot play consistent or a full 40 minutes. I saw a team that got frustrated at the drop of a hat and Johns Hopkins (who they were playing against) took full advantage when their only true inside presence had to take a break for foul trouble. What is also telling: when F&M fans I know tell me they don’t think the Diplomats are a Top 25 team, either (no, I am not going to name names).

* – teams I have seen in person this season
^ – teams I have saw in person last season
** – the number comes from Matt Snyder’s SOS math which last week was proven to be nearly identical to the NCAA’s data. You can find it here along with his regional predictions based on that data here.

Previous Ballots:

Week 9
Week 8
Week 7
Week 6
Week 5
Week 4
Week 2
Week 1
Preseason

So now that we have gotten that out of the way, how this season has played out so far… I am bound to replace half of this Top 25 in the next two weeks as conference seasons come to a close and conference tournaments turn everything on its head. It has been an unbelievable year so far… why wouldn’t the last two weeks of the regular season be any different.

Buckle up… this is going to be fun… and insane.

Dave’s Top 25 Ballot: Week 9

Posted on February 9, 2016 by Dave McHugh

Dave tore up his ballot this week and tried to start over.

BOOM!

That sound you may have heard was me finally doing what I had been debating, and threatening, to do for weeks – blow up my ballot. It wasn’t a complete and devastating destruction, but it was good enough to make me rethink a number of teams, positions, and my thought process behind many. Surprisingly, not as many teams at the top shifted as dramatically as I thought they would in my head. However, the bottom half basically went through a complete make-over including cutting bait with teams because I just couldn’t justify my decisions anymore.

I also dove into more teams than usual this time of year and I dove into more data than I usually like to do. Many know I am not a fan of Massey Ratings, but this is the time of year I do take a look at their numbers to see if there is something I am missing. I don’t end up agreeing with Massey, but it at least forces me to reevaluate a team I am either under- or over-selling and it helps me make sure I am not missing anyone.

Same is true with the NCAA SOS numbers. Of course, we don’t have access to those numbers until Wednesday (when the first Regional Rankings debut), but math-expert Matt Snyder has his own “math” working online, based on the NCAA formula, which gives us at least a good idea of what to expect from the NCAA data (Matt will get a chance to double-check his formula(s) on Wednesday). While I am certainly not ranking my teams per the SOS, it does give me a better insight on what their schedule actually looks like from a data point of view. This sometimes will force me to dive into a team’s schedule further to figure out, maybe, why it doesn’t add up to my expectations (high or low).

This week’s ballot started with a completely blank piece of paper.

As a result of all of this, I ended up writing down a total of 45 teams, including my previous Top 25, to research and analyze. Each week this season I have had between 50-70 teams that have at least crossed my mind, but by the time I get down to researching, I have whittled that number down to 30-35. Also, I will sometimes breeze over teams I have near the top or know well to save myself time. However, this week, there was a solid 45 teams to go through and I went through each of their schedules, games, and notes I have on them in the past few weeks.

That’s what you do when you blow up your ballot.

As a result, my top ten went through a bit of a shuffle – though, it ended up not as severe as it started. I had moved some teams around significantly at the beginning before settling down to a more reserved shuffle in the end. The bottom fifteen, on the other hand, was completely turned on its head. I dropped four teams some of whom might surprise you despite big wins. I nearly dropped a fifth, but ended up deciding to hold on to my 25^th team a little longer despite a major voice in the back of head not pleased with the decision.

With that being said, here is my Top 25 (which you can compare to the D3hoops.com Top 25). I am not going to comment on much of the top ten to save time and space. There are moves, they probably make sense. If they don’t, let me know. I wanted to focus my writing time mainly on the moves I made in the bottom half.

John Carroll moved up to No. 3 on Dave’s ballot this week.

1 – Augustana^ (Unchanged)

2 – Benedictine (Up 2)

3 – John Carroll (Up 2)

4 – St. Thomas* (Down 1)

5 – Whitworth* (Down 3)

6 – Hope (Unchanged)

7 – Christopher Newport (Up 2)

8 – Ohio Wesleyan (Down 1)

9 – Elmhurst (Down 1)

10 – Marietta (Unchanged)

11 – Johnson and Wales (Unchanged)

12 – Susquehanna^ (Unchanged)

13 – St. Norbert (Up 2)

The Chargers have jumped up Dave’s ballot thanks to dominating wins in NEAC play.

14 – Lancaster Bible (Up 4)
This is a big jump in my mind for the Chargers. The simple fact is at this time of the year with an unbeaten team in a sub-par conference I am looking for one thing: domination. Lancaster Bible is dominating the NEAC. They are winning conference games by nearly 27-points this season and haven’t had a game closer than 15 since beating Cairn by four on December 11^th. Sure, the conference isn’t giving up much of a fight and there is a really problematic situation coming should they not win the AQ (SOS is .421 and while probably improve slightly; do you leave a one-loss team at home?). However, the Chargers are starting to prove their early season success was just the tip of the iceberg.

15 – Alma (Down 2)

16 – Plattsburgh State (Up 5)
The Cardinals are pulling away from what I thought was going to be a dog-fight of a SUNYAC race. Plattsburgh has won 13 of their last 14 games and now have a 3 ½ game lead on the conference with five games to play. This has been a six-team race at the top not that long ago. Basically, Plattsburgh is proving to be the only team that can win nearly every night in Central and Western New York.

Whitman proved once again they can beat Whitworth when wearing their home white jerseys.

17 – Whitman (Unranked)
I would be lying if I told you I was comfortable with putting Whitman this high on my ballot. Their win over Whitworth certainly gave me reason to include them, but this high? I realize I am one of the last to buy in to the Missionaries, but we have seen this script before. The only team capable of beating Whitworth in conference over the years is Whitman, but only when playing the game at the Sherwood Center on Whitman’s campus. Does that really make Whitman a good team this season versus others? Outside of beating Whitworth, the Missionaries don’t have a significant win on their schedule. While that doesn’t add up to this decision, I do lean on the fact Whitman has only lost three games and at least has played well in conference. I’m buying in… trepidatiously.

18 – Penn State-Behrend (Up 2)

19 – Mount Union (Up 3)

20 – Amherst (Down 6)
The team-formerly-known-as-the-Lord-Jeffs did not play well against Tufts on Saturday. Shot poorly from deep (28%), got out-rebounded, couldn’t hit a free throw (8-16), and allowed Tufts to have a 21-point lead before realizing they were in trouble. I am just not that confident in the purple team from more-central-than-west Massachusetts. When Amherst has been a national power in the past, these games didn’t exist. They have now dropped three games in their last eight with a resurgent Middlebury and scrappy Hamilton squads waiting to close out the regular season.

21 – Northwestern (Minn.) (Down 2)
Northwestern hasn’t done anything to drop two spots, but they haven’t done anything to make me think they are better than 21^st. They have hands-down the worse SOS of any of the teams I am considering, and it’s ugly (.408) and they are barely holding on to the lead in the UMAC thanks to a loss already to St. Scholastica (they will play a rematch in the final game of the season). I just don’t think they are as good as I had them ranked.

Has Wooster reemerged as the best team in the Great Lakes?

22 – Wooster (Unranked)
Welcome back Scots. Looks like the team that has been underperforming to normal Wooster expectations may have found their stride. The win over Ohio Wesleyan a few weeks back is certainly a good sign, but they have also won ten of their last eleven and might pull off the surprise and force the NCAC tournament trough Timken Gymnasium! Their offense is scoring far more points in the last several weeks than it has all season while the defense seems to be staying consistent. Maybe Steve Moore has his team peaking during an off-year at just the right time to surprise some people.

23 – Emory* (Unranked)
Welcome back Eagles. The last two weeks in the UAA have been unbelievable. Emory was a game back of Chicago before playing their home-and-home series over the last two weekends. Now Emory has won six-straight, has a one-game lead on Rochester*, and Chicago has fallen to three-games back. Emory may have a young team, but they are proving they can now win the close games and beat some very good teams while they are at it. By the way, Emory has a ridiculous SOS (.634 unofficially) meaning they could get into the NCAA tournament once again and throw a monkey-wrench into bracketing like they did in 2014.

If Benedictine wasn’t undefeated, we probably would be talking more about Aurora and the NACC. Courtesy: Aurora University Athletics

24 – Aurora (Unranked)
I realize the Spartans lost to Benedictine this week, but have you seen how Aurora has been playing prior? If Benedictine wasn’t undefeated, people would probably be talking about Aurora. Since they lost three of four prior to the holiday break, they won ten in a row before facing Benedictine (now 11 of their past 12) and winning pretty confidently. Of course, maybe Aurora also looks better thanks to pretty much only losing to Benedictine this season. However, a .537 SOS surprised me, but that forced me to look at the schedule and remember a win over North Central (Ill.) and notice they have been putting up points all season.

25 – Franklin & Marshall (Down 1)
I almost cut the Diplomats. I know they are winning, but I am not impressed for some reason. I guess I don’t buy in as much as people would expect. But, I have watched the team for so many years and I just don’t think this team is quite where it can be to be a Top 25 team. The conference is also down (despite a good Swarthmore team who has emerged) and that doesn’t allow F&M to shine as much as they could. I actually had the Diplomats out of my ballot several times and was going to keep it that way until I voted. Then I changed my mind and left them in. Seems weird if they only have three-losses that I don’t have them in my Top 25 despite what that voice in the back of my head is yelling.

Dropped Out:

WPI^ (Previously 16)
The Engineers have lost three in a row. That’s pretty much the reason I dropped them. It is just so hard to buy in to WPI when they always seem to peak early and go through a stretch late in the season like this. The loss to Babson was their second to them and handed the Beavers the NEWMAC lead, but it was the end of three in a row that saw WPI lose to 9-12 (now) Springfield and Emerson.

Chicago has lost four in a row and put themselves in jeopardy of missing the NCAA Tournament. Courtesy: Univ. of Chicago Athletics

Chicago^ (Previously 17)
The Maroons have now lost four in a row, all to Rochester and Emory including an unbelievable loss to the Yellow Jackets on a purposely missed free-throw, rebound, and three-pointer at the buzzer. It is amazing how fast a season can change. Chicago is basically in a must-win situation the rest of the season. Any loss will pretty much eliminate them from winning the UAA crown and throw them into a very crowded Central Region that will make getting an at-large bid very difficult. I really like Chicago and have for years… but this is not good.

Tufts had a tough battle this week, but despite beating Amherst fell out of Dave’s Top 25.

Tufts (Previously 23)
I realize the Jumbos beat Amherst, but they also lost to Trinity this week. No, not a bad loss and certainly a good win, but in a shake-up of my Top 25 I couldn’t hold on to them. They have previous losses to Wesleyan and Middlebury in the last few weeks and just don’t seem to be playing very consistently – they are all over the place. I might be wrong on this, but I just don’t like the look. Plus the fact, if you are good enough to beat Amherst… you should be good enough to be Trinity.

Texas Lutheran (Previously 25)
I was ready to pull this trigger last week, but held on. But a loss to Trinity this past weekend was the straw that broke the back. I don’t doubt the Bulldogs are a very good team this year and could make a bit of a run in the NCAA tournament if the bracket lines up right for them (like East Texas Baptist last year), but it is a crowded field for those worthy of being a Top 25 team and I think Texas Lutheran isn’t fitting the mold right now.

* – teams I have seen in person this season
^ – teams I have saw in person last season

Previous Ballots:

Week 8
Week 7
Week 6
Week 5
Week 4
Week 2
Week 1
Preseason

It certainly is interesting right now. Sometimes the Top 25 settles down a little bit by this time of the year, but not this season. That isn’t overly surprising. There are a lot of good teams across the country and probably some that are flying under the radar. I know I spotted a few that I hadn’t taken as seriously as before in this process of blowing up my radar. Some made my ballot, some others are still off the ballot. There certainly isn’t a shortage of teams who can make arguments they are the best 25 in the country.\

For comparison’s sake, you can also check out Ira Thor’s Top 25 ballot here.

Dave’s Top 25 Blog: Week 8

Posted on February 6, 2016 by Dave McHugh

North Central (Ill.) one of the teams high on the overall Top 25 poll but not on Dave’s ballot. Courtesy: North Central Athletics

This is being posted just a few days late! I apologize for the delay. The Hoopsville Marathon took up a lot of time this week, not just on Thursday. I wrote this late Tuesday night, but never got around to posting it. However, better late than never. Enjoy!(?)

Welcome to yet another look at my D3hoops.com Top 25 men’s basketball ballot. Another week, another few hours spent scratching more of my hair off my head.

I’m not sure what to add at this point. This is a challenging week with launching the Hoopsville Fundraising Campaign while also getting ready for the Hoopsville Marathon Show on Thursday. I had plenty of things to consider this week, but the amount of time spent on the other two major projects this week has not only already delayed publishing this blog, but left me with not much to comment on.

I will say this: I am clearly not on board with some or a lot of voters on a couple of teams. North Central (Ill.) is about mid-pack, but not on my ballot. I completely understand why some are voting for them, but many of those reasons are why I can’t vote for them. The biggest one – their losses have been to some very, very good teams, but they haven’t won any of those games either. They do have a solid win over Elmhurst, but that is pretty much the only team of note (NCC did beat Mount Union, but they have fallen out of the Top 25). That win over Elmhurst has me nearly including them on my ballot, but I guess I am just looking for the Cardinals to prove they can win more than just one big game out of six (or two out of seven).

I wanted to make sure I addressed that elephant in the room before I got to my ballot. There are others, but you can figure them out when you read through my ballot.

So here we go:

1 – Augustana (Unchanged)

2 – Whitworth* (Unchanged)

3 – St. Thomas* (Unchanged)

4 – Benedictine (Unchanged)

5 – John Carroll (Unchanged)

Hope continues to win, but have they peaked too soon? Courtesy: Hope Athletics

6 – Hope (Up 3)
The Dutchmen have moved up, but I am a little worried this is a little lofty all of the sudden. Could Hope have peaked too soon this season? They just don’t seem to be playing like they were a month ago and now find themselves no longer in control of the MIAA which might mean having to go on the road to secure an AQ and position themselves for home games in the NCAA Tournament (granted, that last point may be moot considering the women have hosting priority in the first weekend the Hope women are playing well enough to secure those for themselves). Hope moves up, but mainly because I needed to shuffle some others down.

7 – Ohio Wesleyan (Down 1)
Yes, the Battling Bishops lost to Wooster who isn’t even ranked let alone on my ballot. Falling just one spot seems awfully kind as a result. However, I am realistic enough to understand that playing at Wooster has historically been one of the more difficult things to accomplish. The game was terrific with both teams trading free throws in the final three and half seconds. I am a little worried with Ohio Wesleyan as I am with Hope. They seem a little banged up going through a tough NCAC, but I also think they are still far better than many of the teams below them.

Does Elmhurst have some chinks in the armor? Courtesy: Elmhurst Athletics

8 – Elmhurst (Down 1)
I honestly would have been shocked if Elmhurst had beaten Augustana in Rock Island especially after the Vikings had the motivation of overcoming the earlier loss to the Blue Jays. What I didn’t expect was the second half. The game was tied at halftime, but Augustana made quick work of Elmhurst in the second half. It is the Blue Jays second loss in the last two weeks (four games) and that has me a little concerned. While the rankings say I shouldn’t move Elmhurst down for losing to a team above them (let alone the top team in the country accordingly to my ballot), the combination of being taken out of the game in the final 20 minutes against Augustana and losing two games in the last four had me shift them slightly.

9 – Christopher Newport (Unchanged)

10 – Marietta (Up 1)

11 – Johnson and Wales (Up 2)

12 – Susquehanna^ (Down 2)
As I have said with many other programs, I didn’t expect the Crusaders to get through Landmark play unscathed. Losing at Catholic, sure I could see that happening. Losing by 21 and giving up 101? Um, no. Ouch. Granted, both teams shot the lights out of the building, but I talked to an official who called the game and he told me he felt Susquehanna played horribly. That gave me pause. I really think Susquehanna will win the Landmark and play in the NCAA Tournament and probably go deep, but I also hope the Catholic game is not a sign of the future.

Alma hasn’t played this well in 74 years!

13 – Alma (Up 3)
I am going to repeat myself: at the beginning of the season, Hope’s Greg Mitchell told me on Hoopsville that Alma was the team to watch in the MIAA. Boy was he right. Now Mitchell and the Dutchmen are looking at the Scots ahead of the in the conference… with a big game between the two coming up on Saturday at Hope. One could argue the game will be the biggest in Alma’s at least recent history.

14 – Amherst^ (Up 1)

15 – St. Norbert (Up 4)
I really expected to see the Green Knights drop a game or two in the Midwest Conference the season. They haven’t lost in conference since 2013(!) and with what they lost during the offseason, this seemed like a safe bet. Nope. Not yet. With their hard fought win over Carroll, SNC has now won 57-straight conference games, have a two-game lead on the conference, and look to be securing yet another conference title and NCAA tournament bid. By the way, have you seen how well the women’s team is playing as well? Time to stop focusing on the WIAC in Wisconsin and take a look at the other green program in Green Bay… because St. Norbert is clearly very, very good.

16 – WPI^ (Down 2)

17 – Chicago^ (Down 5)
Whelp. This past weekend for the Maroons proved one thing: it doesn’t matter how well you are playing, it can change quickly. Emory and Rochester came to the South Side and left Chicago wondering what happened. Chicago didn’t play very well from what I could see. Almost looked like the problems they faced in the opening weeks of the season. Now, Chicago in the difficult situation of having to go to Atlanta and Rochester this coming weekend needing to win to get back in control – or semi control – of the UAA. If not, the automatic bid could be gone and the Maroons will find themselves caught in a very, very difficult Central Region fighting for an at-large bid. It is amazing how quickly things can change.

18 – Lancaster Bible (Unchanged)

19 – Northwestern (Up 2)

PSU-Behrend finally appears on Dave’s ballot. Courtesy: PSU-Behrend Athletics

20 – PSU-Behrend (Unranked)
At some point, a team’s record trumps whatever else I think about them. The Lions only have one loss (LaRoche on Dec. 5) and have now won thirteen in a row while once again rolling through their conference. The problem is, the loss to LaRoche isn’t good and they don’t have an impressive win at all on their resume. Ok, maybe the fact they beat Carnegie Mellon (by 22) and Case Western Reserve should be noted. But that’s it. Nothing else. Behrend is once again in a situation that should they not win the conference AQ they won’t be going to the NCAA Tournament. But again, they have only lost once so far in 18 games. There are a lot of teams who wish they could be winning that many games this season.

21 – Plattsburgh State (Unranked)
I’ve been looking for a reason to get a SUNYAC school on my ballot, especially after I not only swung and missed on Oswego Stae, but also held on to the Lakers far too long. But each week I check out the SUNYAC, they have once again beaten each other up leaving me with no one to pick. Not this week! The Cardinals are actually seemingly pulling away from the rest of the conference. Plattsburgh is two games up on the conference and playing pretty well, but now that the spotlight is on them I am sure the conference will bring them back to earth. Right?

22 – Mount Union (Up 1)

23 – Tufts (Up 1)

24 – Franklin & Marshall^ (Up 1)

Sterling Holmes and his Bulldog teammates have Dave concerned. Could they be coasting?

25 – Texas Lutheran (Down 8)
I am not sure what to think about with the Bulldogs. Dropping eight spots may seem cruel for a team that knocked off their rival for the top of the conference (TLU and Colorado College were tied atop the SCAC entering last weekend), but Texas Lutheran lost the trap game! They went to Centenary (La.) and lost to a team that had lost three straight and is barely above .500. That isn’t good enough! We have entered that part of the season where you can’t skate by and you don’t get second chances. I just feel TLU has moments where they are coasting. Bad sign.

Dropped Out:

Roanoke (Previously 20)
Not a good week if you are a Maroon fan (Chicago or Roanoke) as both squads lost two games back-to-back. For Roanoke, they lost to .500 Randolph and then to sub-par Virginia Wesleyan… both at HOME! For many conferences this season, the top has come down to the middle as it has in the ODAC. Roanoke has a chance to taken advantage of this, but instead squander a chance to take control of the standings. It also set-up a scenario that may leave the ODAC with just one team in the NCAA Tournament.

Brooklyn has tumbled through Dave’s ballot and now out. Courtesy: Brooklyn Athletics

Brooklyn (Previously 22)
It wasn’t that long ago Brooklyn was in my Top 10. They aren’t the first team to be in my Top 10 and then fall out of the poll a few weeks later, they are just the most recent. I am not sure if I bought in too much or if the Bulldogs just aren’t living up to their own expectations. They are battling in what is a far more difficult CUNYAC than in the past, but to be in the Top 25 from that conference you have to take control of the top. Barely beating Lehman and then losing to Staten Island leaving the squad in third place in the conference just isn’t cutting it.

* teams I have seen in person this season
^ teams I have saw in person last season

I am not that comfortable with the bottom half of the ballot. I could go around and around, removing and adding teams for hours. I don’t think I could be comfortable no matter how much time I took. There are a ton of teams with three or four losses that leaves you wanting more – oh, and then add in those five loss teams that seem like they should be in the conversation as well!

I may go back to throwing darts … or blow up the ballot next week.

Previous Ballots:
Week 7
Week 6
Week 5
Week 4
Week 2
Week 1
Preseason

D3hoops.com Daily Dose

Author Archives: Dave McHugh

Time to Change Preseason Basketball

Lancaster Bible: Go undefeated or go home

Dave’s Top 25 Ballot – Week 10

Dave’s Top 25 Ballot: Week 9

Dave’s Top 25 Blog: Week 8