Sometimes you can over think these things.

Looking at the ODAC men’s tournament before it began, you could come up with plenty of reasons why Virginia Wesleyan and Randolph-Macon would not meet in the final. Va Wes was due for a loss. Randolph-Macon had lost to Emory & Henry. Hampden-Sydney could return to early season form.

But here we are at the end and it’s the top teams in the conference preseason poll – and the only two who made our Preseason Top 25 – who will battle over the AQ tonight (7 PM EST). It’s always nice when you end up being right when you were pretty sure you were wrong.

Then again, sometimes no amount of thought will help.

For example, does anyone feel really secure picking the winner of the women’s WIAC tournament, which starts tonight? Stout and Oshkosh split the regular season title. Stevens Point has the top offense statistically. La Crosse has the top defense statistically. And each of the bottom four has beaten at least one of the top four. You can listen to Stevens Point/Platteville or watch Eau Claire/Superior with a good connection (8 PM EST for both).

Elsewhere the NJAC women tip off their tournament and Alvernia’s men play Gwynedd-Mercy in their seemingly annual playoff game in PAC semifinals. Feel free to post links to game broadcasts or thoughts below.

The “world’s greatest city” takes center stage on the first Sunday of our championship run. Baruch is the top seed in the women’s CUNYAC tournament but last year’s winner, Staten Island, plays host. After an aggressive non-conference schedule, Diane Ramirez (pictured) and her Bearcat teammates will try to get past York (N.Y.) today.

The UAA doesn’t have a conference tournament, but the next two weekends will serve the same purpose on the men’s side. Five teams are vying for the automatic bid and two of them – Washington U. and NYU – battle in the first game of our D3hoopsNet doubleheader (12 PM EST).

The NYU women fight for their playoff lives against UAA champs Wash U. at 2 PM. With a good internet connection, you can watch the ODAC men’s semifinals courtesy of Penn Atlantic. And the LMC will see if the third time’s the charm after having three of their men’s quarterfinals snowed out again yesterday.

With some conference tournaments starting today, a few familiar men’s teams could face the end of their season.

Williams travels to Tufts in a battle of regionally ranked teams in the NESCAC tournament’s first round. Two teams previously ranked in the top 25, Randolph-Macon and Hampden-Sydney, enter the ODAC tournament badly needing wins. Read what one CUNYAC aficionado has to say about the conference quarterfinals, which tip off today in Staten Island.

Out west Claremont-Mudd-Scripps can write a happy ending to their SCIAC season. Miles Taylor (pictured) and Stagg Nation can clinch the conference title and its bid into the men’s tournament by beating No. 15 Occidental.

In women’s action traditional rivalries ratchet up a notch with Bates hosting Colby, Williams hosting Amherst and Wesleyan (Conn.) hosting Trinity (Conn.) in the NESCAC Tournament Quarterfinals. Meanwhile the LMC plays its semifinals at 8 PM.

Here’s where you can catch a few of those games on the net, including all four NESCAC quarterfinals.

Women

2 PM EST: NESCAC – #1 Bates vs. #8 Colby

3 PM EST: NESCAC – #3 Wesleyan (Conn.) vs. #6 Trinity (Conn.)

8 PM EST: LMC – #2 Concordia (Wis.) vs. #3 Edgewood

Men

3 PM EST: NESCAC – #1 Amherst vs. #8 Conn College

3 PM EST: NESCAC – #2 Trinity vs. #7 Colby

3 PM EST: NESCAC – #3 Tufts vs. #6 Williams

4 PM EST: NESCAC – #4 Bates vs. #5 Bowdoin

6 PM EST: ODAC – #2 Randolph-Macon vs. #7 Bridgewater (Va.)

8 PM EST: ODAC – #3 Hampden-Sydney vs. #6 Roanoke

10:30 PM EST: SCIAC – Claremont-Mudd-Scripps vs. No. 15 Occidental

Please feel free to share your thoughts on these or other games below.

Alright, getting down to the nitty-gritty. One automatic bid is in (Wash U women) and 74 are left to go over the next nine days.

Chicago swept NYU and put the NYU women on the bubble, in my opinion. This game is worth six points to NYU in the Quality of Wins Index for now, but Chicago has to go to Brandeis on Sunday and hosts Wash U next Saturday. They could easily lose both games, slip below .667 in-region and make this a four-point game for NYU. Currently NYU’s QOW slips from 10.636 to 10.434, but if Chicago loses twice, NYU loses two points for each meeting and it becomes 10.26.

Oh, and NYU still has to host No. 3 Wash U and travel to No. 12 Brandeis. A sweep will keep NYU on track thanks to its steady non-conference diet of top teams in weak conferences.

The Carnegie Mellon men losing at Emory isn’t horribly surprising. Emory is just 10-13 but 9-4 at home. Carnegie Mellon and Wash U are tied for first at 8-4, Chicago, NYU and Rochester one game back at 7-5. Remember, no conference tournament in the UAA.

As I write, Puget Sound’s men are up 66-49 on Willamette, though there are 11 minutes left. Winner gets the top seed in the NWC tournament (according to the Willamette broadcasters, I don’t have the conference tiebreakers in front of me), which is just three teams.

Looks like Trinity (Texas) has wrapped up the top seed in the SCAC men, edging Sewanee at home to go to 11-2. Southwestern (no report at home against Centre) could finish 11-3 by beating Sewanee on Sunday but Trinity swept the head-to-head series. Top seed doesn’t mean home court in the SCAC, though — this tournament is at Rhodes. DePauw has long since clinched the women’s top seed and can run the table in the league with a home win tomorrow against Rose-Hulman.

Should be an interesting next few days! Stay tuned, too, with Gordon Mann’s 12 Days of Championships running Daily Dose feature.

For many years Washington U. was the standard for Division III women’s basketball excellence.

The Bears rolled off four consecutive national titles from 1998 to 2001. Then they started a new, less enjoyable trend in 2002:

2002: Lose to UW-Stevens Point in the tournament. UW-Stevens Point wins the title.
2003: Lose to Trinity (Texas) in the tournament. Trinity (Texas) wins the title.
2005: Lost to Millikin in the tournament. Millikin wins the title.

Tonight the Bears can be pioneers of excellence again. With a win at No. 12 Brandeis, Wash U. will clinch the UAA title and be the first team to wrap up a bid to the NCAA tournament. You can hear the game on WBRS at 6 PM.

Not that the Judges and Caitlin Malcolm (pictured) will just roll over. They have plenty to play for as they chase Wash U. in conference and Southern Maine and Bowdoin in region.

Elsewhere the LMC women’s tournament resumes play, weather permitting. And lots of other teams gear up for a final push just to make their conference tournament.