This time of year is full of speculation. How many starters does Team X have back? Is the transfer for Team Y any good? What does Team Z need to do to replace its backcourt scoring?

We can only guess. And that’s what a preseason Top 25 is, a guess. Some guesses are more informed than others — for example, the annual magazines make their guess with limited information about Division III. They might hit on some of the good teams, but shoot, they don’t even know who to ask.

In October we ask about 60 schools to provide detailed information about their basketball programs and who is returning. We find out how much of their scoring, rebounding, ball-handling (assists) has graduated and how much is returning. And then we still have to guess. When I was filling out my men’s ballot, I had two teams I knew I wanted No. 1 and No. 2, the two Titans of the midwest (lower-case, not NCAA Midwest Region). The rest was like pulling teeth. When you’re presented with as many as 85 data points on more than 50 teams, it’s information overload.

In the end, here’s what concerns me about the first poll:
As attrition hits teams higher up in the poll (it seems unlikely Illinois Wesleyan or UW-Oshkosh can run the table in such tough conferences), teams such as Puget Sound and St. John Fisher will likely do a slow float to the top. We might see one of them at No. 1 by January.

To a lesser extent, the same goes for Mississippi College, though they are lower in the poll. We simply won’t know how good this team is until the NCAA Tournament comes, since they play one D-III non-conference opponent.

For a team we received no information on, UW-Whitewater is quite high at No. 13. Taking a chance here.

I have to wonder how good Worcester Polytech really is. And Catholic is going to have to be much improved to live up to its No. 25 ranking.

Here’s what I like:
I think the voters made the right call on UW-Stevens Point. There’s always a few voters who give the defending champion the benefit of the doubt until they lose their first game, but it makes sense not to in this case. Too much lost.

In the end, Gustavus Adolphus will end up living up to this ranking, I believe, though they might stumble early in the season as in previous seasons.

I like not giving the Final Four a bye into the Top 10 for the previous year. Only York had anything significant back, and there’s reason to worry about the Spartans as well, considering who they beat and didn’t beat to get to the Final Four last March.