Triple Take: Yet to see the field

Posted on September 9, 2011 by ryantipps

Mary Hardin-Baylor gets started this week.

Many got to take a deep breath after Week 1, knowing the opening day jitters for their teams are past.

Yet many people don’t have that luxury. Lots of teams across the country have yet to take a regular-season snap. It could be even more worrisome if one’s opponent already has a game under its belt. How much does one team improve between games one and two? We’re sure to find out on Saturday.

Pat Coleman, Keith McMillan and Ryan Tipps bring you a breakdown of many of the matchups set to take place.

Game of the Week.
Ryan’s take: UW-La Crosse at No. 5 Mary Hardin-Baylor. It’s a good sign for UW-L that in its opener against Whitewater, it held the defending national champs to just a field goal on four drives. (It could have been worse.) But on the other side of the ball the Eagles failed to rev up their own offense. That pattern won’t fly against UMHB. The Crusaders are making their season debut, but, especially playing at home, it would be silly to suggest anything short of the team being fully prepared to win.
Keith’s take: No. 16 Cal Lutheran at No. 7 Linfield. The West Coast powers clash for the third time in 12 games, after the Kingsmen opened last season in California with a 47-42 upset and the Wildcats returned the favor in Oregon, 42-26, in the first round of the playoffs. CLU rushed for 252 yards in its win and Linfield 197, so I’d point at supplementing the passing game by establishing the run again as a factor. Then again, offense wasn’t the problem in either game, and though there are 19 and 16 starters back, it’s a new season. I wonder if the Wildcats can generate a pass rush with Eric Hedin graduated, and if they can cover WR Eric Rogers.
Pat’s take: No. 1 UW-Whitewater at No. 21 Franklin. Despite protestations to the contrary in Kickoff about how difficult it is to swap in a new quarterback to replace the franchise name, Franklin did start strong last week. What a game with Valparaiso, which is D-I in name only, means, not sure. Jonny West did go 32-for-51 passing and threw for five TDs and Ethan Cook had a good day running the ball in a 49-35 win, but UW-Whitewater, not-yet-jelled offensive line and all, will be a much stiffer test.

Surprisingly close game.
Ryan’s take: Hanover at No. 10 Thomas More. Last year, this was a 56-12 shellacking during which everything went right for the Saints. So my baseline is that anything under a 44-point margin is surprisingly close, right? This year’s final will be well below that. Hanover’s defensive core is at the line of scrimmage, and the Panthers will make sure to disrupt some of Thomas More’s fluid run game.
Keith’s take: Delaware Valley at Washington & Jefferson. The Aggies won, 27-0, in the marquee game of the MAC-PAC challenge last season, but needed late heroics to beat Muhlenberg, 10-9, in Week 1. Meanwhile, W&J smashed Juniata, 40-0. The Aggies’ win over the Presidents last year wasn’t even as close as it looked, as W&J couldn’t muster a first down for three quarters. While most of the Aggies’ defense is back, and looked in form last week, they have almost an entirely new offense. Plus, thunderstorms are in the Pittsburgh-area forecast for Saturday, which means this one could be an ugly, points-are-hard-to-come-by affair.
Pat’s take: No. 4 St. Thomas at UW-River Falls. Expect Matt Walker’s Falcons to be more prepared than you might expect for a team playing its first game. Without a wealth of tape to go on against a program under a new head coach, St. Thomas will have to be ready to adjust on the fly.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset.
Ryan’s take: No. 17 Alfred. This may not be because I’m high on RPI but instead because there are too many question marks surrounding Alfred. A returning starting quarterback Tom Secky is great to have, but does he have the supporting cast to put points on the board? RPI and the Liberty League should also be looking to redeem itself after a dismal 2010 season.
Keith’s take: No. 25 St. John’s. It wouldn’t be a major shock to have UW-Eau Claire and the Johnnies go to the wire, after an overtime game last season and three lead switches in the final 3:50 the year before. The Johnnies are coming off a 34-0 win in their opener, and the Blugolds a game where they gave up two TDs in the final six minutes to lose.
Pat’s take: No. 9 Hardin-Simmons. After a Week 1 in which each team had mildly surprising results, I just wonder if Hardin-Simmons has its way as easily with an opponent that didn’t bus 17 hours to go there. Instead, it’s the Cowboys with the long trip, to Willamette. Not that they’re busing to Oregon, mind you.

They’ll be on your radar.
Ryan’s take: Birmingham-Southern. Five picks. Five sacks. A rusher who went for 193 yards. If stats tell stories, then the Panthers are on their way to writing a novel for 2011. This Saturday, Birmingham hosts in-state rival Huntington, which is also coming off a lopsided win. With the SCAC logging Week 1 wins from Centre, Trinity and B-S, it’ll be interesting to see which of these conference-title contenders separates itself over the next few weeks.
Keith’s take: Pacific. The second-year Boxers led 21-10 in the third quarter before causing a lot of their own problems in a 36-28 loss to Simon Fraser. Turnovers, penalties and poor special teams caused Pacific to unravel. The 11^th game since the program’s revival could be its first win, if it cleans up the mistakes. The talent at former D-III member Menlo tends to vary wildly, suggesting it’s not out of the question for the Boxers to match up with the Oaks.
Pat’s take: Greenville. Likening this franchise to a little engine that could, as one of the favorites in the chase for the first UMAC crown. Last year this game took place later in the month and Millikin won by 10, but this year it’s Greenville’s sole non-conference game — the only chance for the team to impress outside of the league schedule.

Team playing its opener that you’re most curious about.
Ryan’s take: Wabash. Opponent Wooster isn’t as frail as it seemed in a shutout loss to open the season. And Wabash is set to prove that with several stars back this fall, the Little Giants deserve to be in the Top 15 or 20 nationally. The Scots can make this interesting if they can do some things they weren’t able to do a week ago, namely, hang onto the ball and protect the backfield. It doesn’t sound easy, and it’s even harder to put that into practice. Wabash will bring pressure for 60 minutes and rattle Woo’s cage the whole way through.
Keith’s take: Montclair State. I think the Red Hawks have a good chance at being the first East Region in four seasons to earn a No. 1 seed and relegate Mount Union to its own bracket in the North. But, one step at a time, and Salve Regina is no pushover. Montclair State’s excursion into the NEFC couldn’t have gone any better last season, in a 34-0 win against Westfield State. This time around, points could be at a premium. I’ll be watching closely to see if the Red Hawks can take the first step toward being that banner-carrier for the East.
Pat’s take: Mount Union. Who isn’t? Especially after UW-Oshkosh held on to beat Central last week. The Titans also have a week of practice up on the Purple Raiders, but note that I didn’t put this game as surprisingly close.

Which team will bounce back from a Week 1 loss?
Ryan’s take: Ursinus. The Bears surely learned after last week that what began in one half may not necessarily carry over to the next. There are things for Ursinus to build off of: posting almost 200 yards passing, picking off opponent Albright twice and having two players reach double digits in tackles. This week’s competition, Gettysburg, pushed an exciting game against Ursinus last season. No reason not to expect the same again — with Ursinus again coming out on top.
Keith’s take: No. 15 North Central. The Cardinals seem an obvious choice, as they were expected to be one of the nation’s elite teams before a loss at Redlands last week. They play another night game, but this one in front of the home crowd in Naperville. Bethel (Tenn.) pulled out a victory against UW-Eau Claire last week, but it will find a talented and eager-to-avoid-starting-0-2 team tougher to defeat.
Pat’s take: McDaniel. There have been some questions going around this week as to which team last week’s Widener-Moravian game more accurately reflects. (Widener won 44-6.) McDaniel took a tough loss in its opener against Catholic and both McDaniel and Moravian have show the propensity to give up points. But only McDaniel showed it can put them on the board as well.

Whose long road trip will turn out the best?
Ryan’s take: Ithaca’s. The Bombers are traveling down to Maryland — a 6.5-hour trip — to play Salisbury in the Gulls’ first conference game as a member of the Empire 8. While Ithaca struggled last week against a lower tier NJAC team, Salisbury hardly earned the automatic upper hand this week after blowing out non-D-III opponent Newport News. Why Ithaca may do well on the road is because the Bombers bottled up Brockport State’s run game something fierce last week. Including QB sneaks and sacks, Brockport gained a mere 40 yards on 27 attempts. Ithaca will need to bring this mentality to do well on Saturday.
Keith’s take: Hamline’s. The Pipers have been looking for a breakthrough win for a while now, and a weakened Pacific Lutheran (10 starters back) is ripe for the picking. New coach John Pate debuts an option-based offense, and as it’s more rare these days, players have even less experience to draw on when trying to stop it.
Pat’s take: Illinois Wesleyan’s. The Titans got a great performance last week from someone who wasn’t supposed to be in a position to contribute this year, and wasn’t even in the school last year. But Tate Musselman, a transfer from North Central, found himself high on the depth chart after injuries at wide receiver and responded with 34- and 82-yard touchdown catches. The IWU defense will face a bigger test at Alma than it did at home against Hope, but should come out well.

ATN Podcast: Starting 2011 with a bang

Posted on September 5, 2011 by d3football

Redlands quarterback Chad Hurst led four second-half scoring drives in the Bulldogs’ win.

The opening weekend of the season is exciting enough without all these hear-stopping finishes we had. North Central … Otterbein … Delaware Valley … Mississippi College … Bridgewater … Illinois College. Plus a big Top 25 matchup and much more to talk about.

The Around the Nation Podcast is a weekly discussion between D3football.com Executive Editor Pat Coleman and Deputy Managing Editor Keith McMillan, who writes the Around the Nation column. It’s the first analysis of the week that was. The show tends to run anywhere between 30 and 60 minutes per week — fit it into your lunch hour.

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Triple Take Week 1: First and long

Posted on September 1, 2011 by ryantipps

“Long” as in a long season is ahead of us, and we’re just getting started.

And we’re willing to bet that most of you have been looking forward to this moment for eight months or more. We hope that our publication, Kickoff 2011, gave you your “football fix” over the past several days. (If not, there’s still time to buy it and get an insider’s look at all 239 teams.)

From now until the Stagg Bowl, Triple Take will be a weekly forecast for the Saturday ahead. Three members of the D3football.com staff — Executive Editor Pat Coleman, Managing Editor and National Columnist Keith McMillan and Senior Editor and Mid-Atlantic Columnist Ryan Tipps — will go through a series of questions to help readers gauge what to expect on game day. We’re thinking aloud, of sorts. And in many cases, we’ll take you beyond the Top 25 teams and perhaps highlight some sleepers that weren’t otherwise on your radar.

For Week 1, here are some of the most interesting matchups nationwide:

Game of the week.
Ryan’s take: No. 10 Coe at No. 16 Hardin-Simmons. Two of the best teams from two of the best conferences in the country. That should say a lot right there. But truth be told, Coe should be near unstoppable most of this season. Any team in the country would be envious to have the kind of returning players that the Kohawks have, and with some gaps for HSU to fill (superstars at quarterback and wideout are gone), this is Coe’s game to lose.
Pat’s take: Trinity Bible at Presentation. It’s not going to be a particularly pretty game, this we know, but it will be the first Division III home game in South Dakota and Presentation might well start its football life off 1-0.
Keith’s take: No. 4 North Central at Redlands. Remember that the Bulldogs were 8-1 last year, a record that almost always gets a team in the playoffs. There are 18 starters back from that squad, though longtime quarterback Dan Selway is not one of them. Likewise, the heart of North Central’s third-best-in-the-nation defense from last year, linebacker Matt Wenger, is gone. But 15 Cardinals starters return. So we’ve got two loaded teams, and the favorite has to travel 1,750 miles from the Chicago area to the L.A. area – flights are rare for D-III teams – for a 7 p.m. PDT kickoff under the lights at Ted Runner Stadium. Heck yeah it’s a game of the week!

Surprisingly close game.
Ryan’s take: N.C. Wesleyan at No. 14 Ohio Northern. In their short history, the Bishops have been known for taking on some of the best teams they can get their hands on in non-conference play: Wesley, Hampden-Sydney, Salisbury. The list goes on, and in an era when every loss can become a compounded postseason strike against a playoff-worthy team, the Bishops are putting risk ahead of caution. Even after losing some key starters, it’s rare when they don’t come out swinging. ONU, on its end, has long been a top-tier OAC team, but they have to replace an All-Conference quarterback, rusher and receiver. That’s a hard feat to overcome.
Pat’s take: East Texas Baptist at No. 3 Wesley. I’d like to put this in the next category down but Wesley has too many weapons and is too good defensively. The Wolverines faced a dual-threat quarterback from the ASC last season in LiDarral Bailey and bottled him up (86 yards of total offense). Sed Harris seems to be a similar threat. The only question is if Shane McSweeny, who is returning from injury, can’t connect with a new receiving corps. Justin Sottilare, who led the Wesley offense to the national semifinals last year, disappeared from the Wolverines’ roster sometime this week.
Keith’s take: No. 23 UW-Stevens Point at Willamette. The Bearcats scored 33 unanswered in last season’s 33-14 season-opening win in Wisconsin, partially because the Pointers had no answer for Willamette’s Fly offense. UW-SP lost star wide receivers Jared Jenkins and Anthony Aker, and they travel to Oregon. They’re the ranked team, but I’m not sure they should be expected to win. And yet, I doubt there’s another blowout here, because defenses tend to perform much better after players and coaches have had a look at a specialty offense.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset.
Ryan’s take: No. 20 Wittenberg. Most of the Tigers’ recent games against Capital were just plain ugly. That’s not to say such a result will happen again this time, but there are some definite kinks to be worked out before they can find success. It’s been more than a decade since Witt beat an OAC team — and working against the Tigers is that they are not the same team that ended 2010.
Pat’s take: No. 22 Rowan. My gut wants me to aim a little higher, such as the No. 14 spot or even the No. 3 spot, but I can’t pull the trigger. This was a close game last year at Rowan and although Rowan certainly got better over the course of the season, Lycoming peaked earlier. But in this battle of two proud programs, I take the team that won the 1998 semifinals in this rematch. One other note: Rowan played just one game on grass all of last year, beating 2-8 Brockport State. And yeah, Ryan, I’ve been to a Capital-Wittenberg game and it wasn’t pretty. But that was a long time ago.
Keith’s take: No. 15 Wartburg. There’s every reason to like the Knights, who were 10-1 last season with a scoring defense and takeaway margin in the top 10 nationally. They beat their Week 1 opponent, Monmouth, 27-7 last year, and the Scots’ star quarterback, Alex Tanney, played the whole game. So as both teams return 18 starters, it doesn’t seem logical to use Tanney’s return as a reason to think the Knights are in danger. And yet I’m going to do it. Tanney got hurt after throwing one pass in Game 2 against Grinnell, and there’s something that burns inside a player to excel when the game is taken away unexpectedly. All five offensive linemen from last year are back to give Tanney time to throw, and he’s as dangerous as any quarterback in Division III. Wartburg lost to St. Norbert in the 2009 opener, so an upset defeat against a top-shelf MWC team is totally foreseeable. If the Knights aren’t on their game Saturday, it’s likely.

They’ll be on your radar.
Ryan’s take: Centre. You can bet that the Colonels want to avenge their 1-point loss to Hanover last year. And in a season where they might be the favorites to win the SCAC, it’ll be interesting whether they can start and stay strong through their nine-game schedule.
Pat’s take: UW-La Crosse. My only question is, will it be enough? The Eagles have the pieces to perform admirably against UW-Whitewater in the season opener but must play the Warhawks twice this season and Mary Hardin-Baylor. Throw in UW-Stevens Point and they could be the best 6-4 or 7-3 team in Division III.
Keith’s take: Salve Regina. If you read Kickoff, you might have noticed my unhealthy obsession with the NEFC’s Seahawks. Union comes to Rhode Island for the opener trying to erase memories of a rare bad season (2-7). There’s a bigger NEFC game in Week 1 too (Framingham State at Endicott), but I’m eager to see if in Year 2, the defensive-minded Bob Chesney begins to field a team that can score as well as it can slow others from scoring.

Which Thursday or Friday night game would you like to attend?
Ryan’s take: Baldwin-Wallace at Wooster. I’m sure that the Yellow Jackets would just like to forget that the last two games of 2010 even happened. And here’s their chance. I’ve pegged B-W to be the No. 2 team in the OAC this year, but I also think that Woo has an upset or two in them this fall. It probably won’t happen in Week 1, but down the line, they will sneak up on somebody.
Pat’s take: Dubuque at Augustana. This should be a nice shootout of passing offenses, with the Spartans and Mike Zweifel leading the way. The schools are not that far apart and it’s a Thursday night game, under the lights. If it weren’t a six-hour drive from here I’d go myself, but I’ll settle for live video.
Keith’s take: Adrian at Husson. I’m curious about McMurry, which is transitioning out of D-III, playing at Stephen F. Austin, but I still think I’d rather go see a Michigan-based D-III team play in Maine. There’s something unique when teams who move in different D-III circles get together. I’d appreciate both the travel opportunity and the chance for us D-III nerds to evaluate conferences against one another.

Which 2010 playoff team is going to end up wishing it had a Week 1 bye?
Ryan’s take: Muhlenberg. Few things might be more intimidating than starting a season against the big dog of the MAC, Delaware Valley. It’s not an impossible game (the Mules do have players such as All-American linebacker Pat McDonough to prop them up), but most people would probably hitch their wagon to Del Val in this situation.
Pat’s take: St. Lawrence. The Saints open with Utica after they lost every non-conference game they played last year, including a 31-13 decision to Utica later in the season, when youth is less of an excuse.
Keith’s take: St. Norbert. I guess this is a cop-out, because of course it isn’t easy to play the No. 5 team in the country out of the gate. I actually applaud the Green Knights for scheduling tough openers, and this isn’t the first time. They’ve won the non-conference game, gone 9-1 and missed the playoffs, then gone 7-3, won the MWC and gotten in. But still, if they lose the opener, they have to hope it prepared them to win the conference, because two-loss teams are always on shaky playoff ground.

Whose long losing streak is likely to end?
Ryan’s take: Guilford’s, against Greensboro. I mentioned this in my Around the Mid-Atlantic column this week, too, but I think that because the Quakers have a new coach, they also have a new reason to be excited. This week’s opponent is crosstown rival Greensboro, and Guilford’s new coach, Chris Rusiewicz, is bringing a fresh, defensive approach to a team that has lost 11 games in a row. Rusiewicz has made several changes on defense and already understands his players’ strengths and weaknesses. He’ll do a good job of playing to the strengths.
Pat’s take: Thiel’s, against Marietta. The Tomcats finally showed some signs of putting things together down the stretch after a dismal beginning to the season that also had an emotional component following the September death of freshman defensive lineman Louis Giuntini. And to those at Frostburg State and who knew and loved Derek Sheely, our condolences.
Keith’s take: Olivet’s, against Cornell. Or maybe I have that backwards. Okay, fine, someone’s long losing streak is ending here; the Comets’ 27-game streak or the Rams’s 11-game streak. Both teams have second-year coaches and most of their starters back, which isn’t always a good thing if you lost all 10 games. It’s impossible to have a read on a team before they’ve played a game. But Olivet’s at home, so I’ll give them the edge.

Share your thoughts in the comments below.