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ATN Podcast: Let the speculation begin

Lots of good showdowns this weekend to talk about, and we hit on a bunch, but that’s just the beginning.  What we’re really here to do is talk about the playoffs! Where do we know more about automatic bids? Which at-large teams have a good shot as it stands right now? Who might get the No. 1 seeds? There’s still three weeks left but it’s time to get in the swing of things. Plus, which are the teams on the rise? What key highlights happened below the radar? Pat and Keith answer those questions, plus hand out their game balls, on this week’s Around the Nation Podcast.

The Around the Nation Podcast is a weekly conversation between Pat Coleman and Keith McMillan covering the wide range of Division III football. It drops on Monday morning weekly throughout the season.

Hit play, or subscribe to get this podcast on your mobile device. [display_podcast] You can subscribe to the Around the Nation Podcast in iTunes. You can also get this and any of our future Around the Nation podcasts automatically by subscribing to this RSS feed: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3football/?feed=podcast
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Triple Take, Week 7: Time for some new teams to shine

Some weeks stand out because of stadium-filling rivalries and top-25 games that attract interest across the nation. This isn’t one of those weeks.

That, however, opens the door for the middle class of Division III to get some shine, and some air time. There are plenty of teams who aren’t top-ranked but are pretty good. At this time of year, there are 5-0 and 6-0 teams that might end up with three or four losses, and there are 3-2 and 4-1 teams that might not lose another game. Weeks like these are when teams begin to sort one another out.

Beyond the particular team and conference you follow, it can be tough to know where to look in a week like this. That’s where Around the Nation columnist Ryan Tipps, editor and publisher Pat Coleman and I come in. We’ll help you sort through the 117 games on tap this weekend, all but three involving two D-III teams. So with 231 of the 247 teams in action, check out the seven-point primers below for where to watch for great games, big upsets, and teams that will get their first wins or losses.

— Keith McMillan

Game of the week

Keith McMillan
Keith’s take: Gustavus Adolphus at No. 14 St. John’s. As my colleagues’ choices will prove, there’s no marquee game this week featuring a clash of top-25 teams. But there is this, the 6-0 Gusties traveling to Collegeville, Minn. with a former Johnnie as their star under center. Mitch Hendricks is the only quarterback in D-III to have surpassed 2,000 yards passing so far this season, and he has 23 touchdown passes and just five interceptions. The Gusties convert third downs at the nation’s highest rate (66.2) and score 54.5 points per game, but none of it means much if they lose to St. John’s, Bethel, Concordia-Moorhead and St. Thomas like they did to finish last season. The Johnnies, led by linebackers Carter Hanson and Drake Matuska, have been solid defensively, and the offense, behind RB Sam Sura and QB Nick Martin, takes care of the ball, so the Gusties will have to earn it. The Johnnies, who won 29-19 at Gustavus last season, are also coming in off a bye week. Frankly, this game could fit in “unbeaten team that takes its first loss” or “most likely top-25 team to lose” below, which makes it a perfect Game of the Week candidate.
Ryan Tipps
Ryan’s take: Hendrix at Berry. I’m going off the top-25 map to pick this game, but with as wide open as the SAA is this season, this matchup between third-year programs will help to sort out the field. So far this season, two SAA teams have been ranked, and Hendrix and Berry have each knocked off one of those more-established teams. Is the student becoming the master? The Warriors have a combination running/passing game that yields a lot of points; the Vikings, on the other hand, haven’t allowed more than 17 points since Week 1. Each team will really need to tap into those strengths if it hopes to emerge the winner — and be the top dog in the conference race.
Pat Coleman
Pat’s take: Carleton at St. Olaf. Nationally this is an underrated rivalry. As Minnesota rivalries goes, it will never match the Tommie-Johnnie game in terms of pure size and scope, but these two colleges nestled in small-town Northfield, Minn., have a fierce rivalry as well. It’s also pretty evenly matched. As St. Olaf has struggled the past couple of years, Carleton has been able to get its licks in and the games have been competitive in either direction. But lastly, it’s one of my favorite rivalries because it has one of my favorite traditions: The Walk. The winning team walks down to the middle of town and turns the eagle on top of the town’s war memorial to face the winner’s campus. Pretty cool sight.

Surprisingly close game

Keith McMillan
Keith’s take: Central at Loras. The Dutch have won three of four and are known, alongside Wartburg, as the perennial class of the IIAC. The Duhawks (2-3) have not won a conference title since rejoining in 1986, and were picked to finish last back in Kickoff ’15. But when the games got underway, we learned something about Loras: Its offense can wing it. The Duhawks lead the nation in passing offense (430 yards/game) and are top five in total offense. Because they are No. 229 overall in total defense, they’ve had scores of 56-52, 52-42, 48-41 and 30-27 … which you might notice are all relatively close games. Expect another one.
Ryan Tipps
Ryan’s take: Washington and Lee at Randolph-Macon. Even when the Yellow Jackets are struggling, their struggles are often tied to losses against teams that air out the ball. W&L is not one of those teams. Macon knows how to stop the run — even the option run — and while these two teams are polar opposites in the standings, they’ll be close on the scoreboard.
Pat Coleman
Pat’s take: Mount St. Joseph at Franklin. Franklin has been putting up a ton of points of late, although the 56 points vs. Anderson and the 80 vs. Earlham don’t really compare to what they might put up against their biggest competition for the conference title. However, MSJ has given up a few more points than usual.

Most likely top-25 team to be upset

Keith McMillan
Keith’s take: No. 20 Illinois Wesleyan. After back-to-back weeks in which six top-25 teams lost, the pickings are slim this week. There are some decent opponents for the elite teams, like 4-1 Kean facing No. 4 Wesley and 3-2 UW-Stevens Point facing No. 5 UW-Oshkosh. I don’t even particularly like my pick, because the Titans are good defensively (No. 18 nationally) as they often are and are deserving of their top-25 spot. This is more a compliment to 2-3 Augustana, which played its first four games under Steve Bell closely before a 31-14 loss to seventh-ranked Wheaton last week. The Vikings’ hopes ride heavily on QB Sam Frasco, who is running it 17 times a game himself while averaging 33 passes.
Ryan Tipps
Ryan’s take: No. 24 Ithaca. After a couple of weeks in which we’ve seen several in the top 25 fall, this Saturday is looking a lot more like chalk. And then there’s the anything-can-happen Empire 8. Brockport is only 1-2 in conference play, but those losses come at a combined four points. There’s no reason to believe that the Golden Eagles won’t push Ithaca to the bone in this one.
Pat Coleman
Pat’s take: No. 19 Concordia-Moorhead. Like Ryan, I see a lot of chalk this week. I’m kind of stretching to find someone other than Ithaca to point to here so I’m going to take a flier on the possibility that Augsburg might be able to go up to Concordia-Moorhead and come out with a win. The Auggies still have incredible talent Ayrton Scott at quarterback and he’s a handful for any opposing defense.

There are 27 unbeaten teams. Pick one to lose for the first time.

Keith McMillan
Keith’s take: Denison, at Wittenberg. I gave Gettysburg and Gustavus Adolphus a look in this category, but the 5-0 and 3-2 records in this Ohio night game are deceiving. The Big Red survived a two-point conversion attempt with 44 seconds left in a 10-9 win against Ohio Wesleyan (a team Wittenberg beat, 42-21) two games ago, while the Tigers’ two losses were on the road to Wabash and DePauw, who are both unbeaten. Denison has the ninth-ranked defense in the country, but Wittenberg QB Zach Jenkins and WR Corey Stump should put a dent in that ranking. I’m not going that far out on a limb here, since the Big Red haven’t beaten Wittenberg since 1989, and haven’t won in Springfield since 1952, long before their mascot (see No. 9 in ‘100 things we love about Denison’) was something other than Big Red.
Ryan Tipps
Ryan’s take: St. Norbert, at Ripon. The Midwest is a tricky beast this season, and St. Norbert is the only team in either division that is currently unbeaten. I know I picked Ripon for a Triple Take category just last week, and the Red Hawks proved me right. I’ll take them again, this time to dole out the upset against the Green Knights.
Pat Coleman
Pat’s take: Gettysburg, vs. Muhlenberg. This particular Battle of the Burgs is a little bit turned on its head from recent years, with Gettysburg (5-0) coming in riding high and Muhlenberg sporting two losses. But the Mules’ two losses are to Centennial teams that Gettysburg hasn’t even played yet: Johns Hopkins and F&M. The records for each are a little misleading and this game is more evenly matched than the conference standings would suggest, primarily because Gettysburg’s 4-0 conference mark has come at the hands of the four teams at the bottom of the conference standings.

There are 26 winless teams. Pick one to win for the first time.

Keith McMillan
Keith’s take: Worcester State, at Mass-Dartmouth. I was tempted to take 0-4 Pacific Lutheran at 5-0 Whitworth, but if you look closely at the Lancers, they’ve been tied or within one score in the fourth quarter of three of their five losses. It’s a Friday night game in North Dartmouth, where the 3-3 Corsairs are coming off a pair of losses and might be thinking the 0-5 Lancers are an easy win and way to get back over .500.
Ryan Tipps
Ryan’s take: Hanover, vs. Anderson. Neither team has looked pretty this year — the margins of their losses edge into the realm of the absurd at times. But Hanover’s best game this season came last week against Mount St. Joseph, which was close for almost the entire 60 minutes. If the Panthers can carry that momentum into this Saturday’s game (and do a lot better than giving away four turnovers), it will be able to erase the goose egg from the win column.
Pat Coleman
Pat’s take: UW-Eau Claire, vs. UW-Stout. The Blugolds’ best chance to get a win this season comes on Saturday night when they host their archrival UW-Stout. The Blue Devils will be making a 24-mile trip east on I-94 to Eau Claire, Wis., where they will be favored, no doubt. But Eau Claire has to get this one, or the next week’s game at La Crosse, in order to keep our Kickoff projection from coming true. The Blugolds finish at UW-Whitewater, home to UW-Platteville, and at UW-Oshkosh.

Pick a player you think will play a large role in leading his team to victory.

Keith McMillan
Keith’s take: Utica kicker Thomas Woodburn. Yeah, I said it. A kicker is going to sway a game. Woodburn, coming off a 5-for-5 week in field-goal kicking against Brockport State and who is 16 of 17 on the season, is needed more than most place kickers. He’s attempted at least two field goals in five of six games. (Only one of the field goals is longer than 37 yards, which says something about where the Pioneers’ offense tends to stall.) Since Week 2, Woodburn has handled the punting in addition to PATs, field goals and kickoffs. And a team that has played three straight overtime games and four one-score games needs an accurate leg on its side. But beyond all that, in a nine-team Empire 8 in which any team legitimately could beat any of the others, Utica needs Woodburn. The Pioneers, at 4-2, 3-1, are tied with Cortland State for the conference lead and could be playoff-bound for the first time in the 15-year history of the program. St. John Fisher, after a rough start, has won two of its past three against Empire 8 teams and might be able to push Utica to a fourth consecutive overtime game.
Ryan Tipps
Ryan’s take: Albion quarterback Dominic Bona and running back Mike Czarnecki, vs. Adrian. The Britons are a team I’ve been eyeing especially closely this season, and in recent weeks, I’ve gotten a handful of e-mails from fans talking about this Saturday’s matchup. Adrian is one of the bigger conference threats to Albion, and last year, the Bulldogs ruined Albion’s momentum in a big way. This season is different: Bona averages 276 passing yards a game, and Czarnecki is at 156 rushing yards a game — and he’s not even the team’s only 100-yard-plus rusher! (Fellow senior Colin Parks is the other.) If you listened to the ATN podcast this week, you know that these Albion players have thoughts of the playoffs growing in their minds. They’re halfway there.
Pat Coleman
Pat’s take: North Park quarterback T.D. Conway vs. Elmhurst. Conway struggled last week vs. North Central but has been pretty strong against the rest of the schedule. North Park has played four really good teams this year, three ranked in the top 25. Facing an Elmhurst team which is not quite on the level of Wheaton or North Central should allow Conway to shine. Plus, with Elmhurst running back Josh Williams not at full strength, there will be more opportunities for the Vikings to live up to the other half of this question, namely, winning the game.

They’ll be on your radar

Keith McMillan
Keith’s take: Trinity (Texas). The Tigers are 4-1 but outside the top 25 because of a 24-point loss to No. 15 Hardin-Simmons. Trinity plays four of its next five against Austin and Southwestern, but the Kangaroos, Saturday’s opponent, are 3-2. Trinity probably won’t be able to earn top-25 consideration until the Oct. 31 game against Texas Lutheran, but we are watching.
Ryan Tipps
Ryan’s take: Denison. For all of the talk in the NCAC about Wabash, Wittenberg and, more recently, DePauw, there’s one more team that’s fighting for some recognition: Denison. The Big Red line up against damaged-giant Wittenberg on Saturday. Last year’s game was only a seven-point win by Witt, and that was when Denison was having a down season and Witt was having a good one. I’m interested to see where the winds are shifting now that the Big Red are riding a hot streak.
Pat Coleman
Pat’s take: St. Scholastica at Northwestern (Minn.). I won’t be able to attend this game, unfortunately — I had hoped to do so. But the winner of the game is firmly in the driver’s seat in the Upper Midwest Athletic Conference, with a chance to run the table in conference play. Should be a great night for a game, and a very competitive one as well.

We invite you to add your predictions in the comments below. Download the Around the Nation podcast on Mondays, where Pat and Keith review the picks that were prescient, and those that were terribly off base.

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Triple Take, Week 4: The first Saturday filled with showdowns

This looks like a great weekend, from top to bottom and start to finish. No. 1 UW-Whitewater won a Thursday-night thriller against NAIA No. 1 Morningside, but the action should continue as St. Thomas and St. John’s threaten to set an unofficial Division III attendance mark, and get a visit from SportsCenter, while Wittenberg-Wabash and Wesley-North Central also mark clashes between top-25 teams.

There’s intrigue elsewhere, and the NESCAC finally joins the party as well. With more than 100 games this weekend and most of D-III’s 247 teams in action, we realize you can’t follow everything. Around the Nation columnist Ryan Tipps, editor and publisher Pat Coleman and I provide our seven-point primers on where to watch for road wins, great finishes and potential upsets.

— Keith McMillan

Game of the week

Keith McMillan
Keith’s take: No. 5 Wesley at No. 22 North Central. This is a non-conference clash involving two of the most successful programs of the past decade, and each would still be in the same place in its chase of its conference’s automatic playoff spot with a loss. Yet it’s a huge game. It’s the kind players gear up for because they know it’s top competition, and it’s the one they’ll remember years later. It will tell us on the outside a bit about the national picture. Wesley QB Joe Callahan (eight TDs, 0 INTs) is one of the nation’s best. From Jeff Thorne’s comments around the 5:20 mark in NCC’s Red Zone show, sounds like RB Austin Bruenig (who had a long TD run against UW-Platteville) gets first crack at replacing Oshayne Brown, but that several backs will get carries.
Ryan Tipps
Ryan’s take: No. 12 St. Thomas at No. 8 St. John’s. There are other great games taking place, but we all know — as does ESPN — that the Tommie-Johnnie game is week’s big dog. I wouldn’t be surprised if this is the pick from all three of us.
Pat Coleman
Pat’s take: No. 1 UW-Whitewater at Morningside and No. 12 St. Thomas at No. 8 St. John’s. One of these games was played before Triple Take was published but both are worthy of separate recognition as the game of the week. For Whitewater, hey, no pressure, but all of Division III’s reputation was riding on your play on Thursday night.

Surprisingly close game

Keith McMillan
Keith’s take: Misericordia at Stevenson. The Cougars are in their fourth year since starting football, and after a 2-28 first three seasons, the magic is supposed to happen. Instead, 0-3 Misericordia is coming off 37-7 and 28-7 home losses. Stevenson is 3-0 and has had a morale-boosting win over one-time MAC power Lycoming. These are the kinds of games players take easily, and look clear past. They’re young adults and are human; who can blame them? But Misericordia won’t just lay down — they’ve given up only one first-quarter score the past two weeks. It might take some time before the Mustangs pull away in this one.
Ryan Tipps
Ryan’s take: Trinity (Texas) at Pacific Lutheran. Last year, PLU rolled to the tune of 38-14 on the road, but I think we’re looking at very different teams from both the Lutes and the Tigers in 2015. Trinity seems better poised to pull this one out, but it’s not going to be by the same hefty margins of the past two weeks.
Pat Coleman
Pat’s take: No. 10 John Carroll at Baldwin Wallace. Honestly, if this game is not surprisingly close, it will be the Blue Streaks’ first game this season that isn’t. I’m holding out for the possibility that John Carroll might approach last season’s performance and be ready to challenge for the conference title at the end of the season, but it’s fair to say they haven’t looked that way so far. Meanwhile, Baldwin Wallace bounced back from the debacle in its opener vs. Bluffton to beat Ohio Northern last week.

Most likely Top 25 team to be upset

Keith McMillan
Keith’s take: No. 10 John Carroll at Baldwin Wallace. It’s a rare week in that almost every top-25 team (save for Mount Union, Thomas More and Bethel) has a matchup it could lose, and yet it was tough to convince myself of one that fit here. Empire 8 members Utica and Alfred are off to good starts, but Cortland State and Ithaca have played such good competition, it’s hard to pick against them. Centre was a thought. So were Johns Hopkins and Rowan. But they’re all playing too well. John Carroll is the team where the jury is most out. Are they a team that could surpass the Purple Raiders? Or could they lose to a team that lost to Bluffton in Week 2? Consider this a challenge for the Blue Streaks to prove to national onlookers that what they’ve built was more than just lucking into a great quarterback the past few years. The six sacks vs. Heidelberg last week were a start.
Ryan Tipps
Ryan’s take: No. 21 Centre, at Chicago. With Rhodes’ unexpected fall last week, Chicago is positioned to be the best challenger to unseat Centre at the top of the SAA — so there’s a whole lot riding on the outcome of this game. Chicago’s new quarterback, Burke Moser, came into the season with minimal collegiate experience but in two games has passed for more than 600 yards, seven touchdowns and no interceptions. He has a wealth of receiving targets and veteran defense to help keep him in prime field position to reach the end zone.
Pat Coleman
Pat’s take: No. 5 Wesley, at No. 22 North Central. We don’t usually pick Top 25 matchups as upset picks but I think this is one where the teams are ranked far enough apart that Wesley is clearly favored, even on the road. I think North Central will bounce back, although I am taking a chance that running back Oshayne Brown will return for the Cardinals. I think there are still some unanswered questions about Wesley and for them to fly halfway across the country and go play a Top 25 team seems to me ripe for an upset.

Pick a team that scores an impressive road win

Keith McMillan
Keith’s take: UW-River Falls at Southwestern. Since the Falcons nearly pulled off the upset of the century against UW-Whitewater back in Week 11 of last year, they’ve gone on to do, well, nothing. Opening with two losses and a trip to Texas isn’t necessarily a recipe to get right, but it willc happen this week. Southwestern is all over the board, following a 77-6 Week 1 loss with a 7-6 win against McMurry, and then a 46-37 loss to East Texas Baptist in which it attempted a two-point conversion to tie the game with 2:41 left. But if our conference rankings mean anything, a lower-tier WIAC team should still be able to go to Texas and beat a third-year SCAC program. We’ll be watching intently.
Ryan Tipps
Ryan’s take: No. 1 UW-Whitewater, at Morningside. Against who? Morningside is the Iowa team that is currently No. 1 in the NAIA polls. While a Whitewater win against Morningside wouldn’t mean as much in terms of playoffs as a win would against a top Division III team, it’s still going to be a talker. And, best of all, this is a game that everyone in the D-II community (all 247 football-playing teams of us) could band together for in support of our defending national champions. (Note: I typed this item up on Tuesday, and we’ll know by the time Triple Take is published whether I’m right or wrong.)
Pat Coleman
Pat’s take: Carthage, at Lakeland. The Red Men are going to be hurting for road wins, possibly just wins in general, this season. They were already blown out by St. Norbert earlier this season. It’s a struggling program, but Carthage got better from Week 1 to Week 2 and with another strong performance, a win should be possible here in Week 4.

Pick a game that’s decided in the fourth quarter

Keith McMillan
Keith’s take: Framingham State and Western Connecticut State. Another week, another MASCAC pick. But these are the two teams most worth watching from the conference, and with the Rams visiting Danbury, we can expect a close finish. The Rams have a great statistical profile: Nine takeaways in three games, 94.6% in red-zone scoring and a time of possession average of more than 35 minutes. QB Matthew Silva is completing more than seven passes per game to both Marcus Grant and Tevin Jones. Western Conn. responds with QB Michael Nicol, who has rushed for 384 yards and five TDs and has passed for 84 and zero. Should be a fun one.
Ryan Tipps
Ryan’s take: Alfred at No. 24 Ithaca. The Bombers showed last week against Hobart how wicked their defense could be. Now it’s time to prove that they’re not a fluke. Alfred, at 3-0 and a traditionally worthy E8 opponent, is certainly not getting overlooked. This is a stiff September test for both of these squads, and I expect it to be close and still quite a fight in the final period.
Pat Coleman
Pat’s take: Minnesota-Morris at Iowa Wesleyan. In Kickoff, I identified this as the game in the Upper Midwest Athletic Conference with pride on the line. Now, Morris has already won a game, vs. Greenville at that, so Morris has already started to defend its pride this season. IWC broke into double digits last season after scoring nine and six points in their first two games. These two teams with really small rosters will be on somewhat more equal footing than they often have been.

The NESCAC makes its fashionably late entrance this weekend. Give us any prediction.

Keith McMillan
Keith’s take: One of the Maine teams wins its opener. All three are at home. The best bet is Williams at Bowdoin, since a Bates win over Amherst or a Colby win over Trinity would be a major shock. Both the Ephs and Polar Bears were 2-6 last season and return a modest number of starters (15 and 13). But Coach J.B. Wells built a winner at Endicott, and has a chance to begin his tenure at one of the NESCAC’s traditional also-rans with a win.
Ryan Tipps
Ryan’s take: Hamilton beats Tufts. Hamilton will break its 20-game losing skid. The Continentals line up against Tufts, and it will largely come down to which team’s quarterback will be able to play well and command the offense better. Tufts’ Alex Snyder, the preseason’s projected starter, has some experience under his belt but he definitely had some kinks that needed ironing out. For Hamilton, Chase Rosenberg is likely back for his third year leading the team under center, but there has to be some hesitations since Rosenberg has yet to get a win under his belt.
Pat Coleman
Pat’s take: LaDarius Drew’s return won’t be enough for Wesleyan. Having one of the premier running backs in the conference return from an injury which kept him out in 2014 will definitely boost the Cardinals’ prospects this season, but not in the opening week vs. Middlebury. The Panthers, on the other hand, might run the table.

They’ll be on your radar

Keith McMillan
Keith’s take: Elmhurst at Simpson. As the kind of programs who wouldn’t surprise us by challenging for their conference title, or finishing 7-3, 5-5 or 3-7, this is an intriguing Bluejays-Storm matchup. Simpson gave up two long TD catches to Artie Checchin and then a 14-play scoring drive just before the half against Elmhurst’s conference rival, Illinois Wesleyan. Was that just a game that got away or a throughly deserved 49-7 butt-whipping. Elmhurst’s early 31-17 win over Loras looks better as the Duhawks pile up yards and points, but I still don’t know what to make of the Bluejays.
Ryan Tipps
Ryan’s take: The Heidelberg at Ohio Northern game. I haven’t been particularly shy that I’m shaky on every OAC team below Mount Union. This is not the season we’ll have a stellar No. 2 OAC team shine in the postseason. I think John Carroll is down, Heidelberg is already 0-2, and last week Ohio Northern lost to Baldwin Wallace, which has its own W-L baggage. The Student Princes and Polar Bears are meeting for pride as much as anything else at this point, and last year’s 69-52 outcome leaves us wondering if we’ll see some defense emerge this time around.
Pat Coleman
Pat’s take: The St. Norbert-Illinois College game. St. Norbert doesn’t play Monmouth in the course of the regular Midwest Conference schedule, so this is one of the best analogies we have this season for a potential Midwest Conference championship game preview.

We invite you to add your predictions in the comments below. Download the Around the Nation podcast on Mondays, where Pat and Keith review the picks that were prescient, and those that were terribly off base.