Quick Hits: Predicting the first-round scores

Posted on November 16, 2018 by Pat Coleman

The story goes, one day on a long ride to a playoff game at Thiel (which tells you how long ago this happened), Pat and Keith decided to pass the time by guessing not just the winner of each first-round playoff game, but the score. And there was born the expectations game: Do we expect a close game? A high-scoring game? A blowout? Does everyone agree on who will win? Those are the factors worth looking at.

Keith McMillan, Ryan Tipps, Pat Coleman, Adam Turer, Frank Rossi and Greg Thomas each take their guesses at scores for each first-round game. Plus, we have Logan Hansen’s odds to advance and at the bottom, a widget you can manipulate to get details on all 32 teams and compare teams head-to-head in a multitude of categories.

— Pat Coleman (d3photography.com photo)

Mary Hardin-Baylor bracket
Keith’s take: UMHB 34, Hardin-Simmons 10 Ryan’s take: UMHB 31, Hardin-Simmons 14 Pat’s take: UMHB 34, Hardin-Simmons 7	Adam’s take: UMHB 38, Hardin-Simmons 17 Frank’s take: UMHB 44, Hardin-Simmons 10 Greg’s take: UMHB 35, Hardin-Simmons 10
Hansen odds to advance: UMHB, 93.7% Consensus: Strong consensus for a Mary Hardin-Baylor win, of around five scores to two.
Keith’s take: Berry 34, Maryville 10 Ryan’s take: Berry 34, Maryville 13 Pat’s take: Berry 35, Maryville 10	Adam’s take: Berry 31, Maryville 13 Frank’s take: Berry 37, Maryville 30 Greg’s take: Berry 28, Maryville 20
Hansen odds to advance: Berry, 70.8% Consensus: The first meeting was 38-3 and the second meeting isn’t expected to be much different.
Keith’s take: St. John’s 56, Martin Luther 0 Ryan’s take: St. John’s 52, Martin Luther 7 Pat’s take: St. John’s 62, Martin Luther 8	Adam’s take: St. John’s 63, Martin Luther 0 Frank’s take: St. John’s 54, Martin Luther 7 Greg’s take: St. John’s 58, Martin Luther 7
Hansen odds to advance: St. John’s, 100.0% Consensus: St. John’s in a runaway.
Keith’s take: Whitworth 21, C-M-S 17 Ryan’s take: Whitworth 45, C-M-S 6 Pat’s take: Whitworth 24, C-M-S 6	Adam’s take: Whitworth 35, C-M-S 3 Frank’s take: Whitworth 49, C-M-S 14 Greg’s take: Whitworth 31, C-M-S 10
Hansen odds to advance: Whitworth, 92.1% Consensus: Wide range of scores by which Whitworth is expected to advance.

UW-Whitewater bracket
Keith’s take: UW-Whitewater 49, Eureka 6 Ryan’s take: UW-Whitewater 52, Eureka 10 Pat’s take: UW-Whitewater 58, Eureka 12	Adam’s take: UW-Whitewater 42, Eureka 6 Frank’s take: UW-Whitewater 41, Eureka 3 Greg’s take: UW-Whitewater 48, Eureka 7
Hansen odds to advance: UW-Whitewater, 99.9% Consensus: Whitewater by a lot.
Keith’s take: Trine 27, St. Norbert 17 Ryan’s take: St. Norbert 24, Trine 17 Pat’s take: Trine 42, St. Norbert 16	Adam’s take: St. Norbert 20, Trine 17 Frank’s take: Trine 37, St. Norbert 27 Greg’s take: Trine 28, St. Norbert 27
Hansen odds to advance: Trine, 70.5% Consensus: A split decision favoring Trine, but by varying margins.
Keith’s take: North Central 35, Hanover 14 Ryan’s take: North Central 48, Hanover 7 Pat’s take: North Central 51, Hanover 14	Adam’s take: North Central 56, Hanover 13 Frank’s take: North Central 47, Hanover 10 Greg’s take: North Central 40, Hanover 17
Hansen odds to advance: North Central, 98.3% Consensus: North Central advancing easily.
Keith’s take: Bethel 28, Wartburg 17 Ryan’s take: Bethel 31, Wartburg 23 Pat’s take: Wartburg 24, Bethel 13	Adam’s take: Bethel 28, Wartburg 17 Frank’s take: Wartburg 27, Bethel 24 Greg’s take: Wartburg 17, Bethel 14
Hansen odds to advance: Bethel, 67.2% Consensus: A pure 50-50 split decision which is likely headed for a recount.

Mount Union bracket
Keith’s take: Mount Union 49, Denison 21 Ryan’s take: Mount Union 63, Denison 7 Pat’s take: Mount Union 28, Denison 10	Adam’s take: Mount Union 49, Denison 20 Frank’s take: Mount Union 67, Denison 3 Greg’s take: Mount Union 42, Denison 14
Hansen odds to advance: Mount Union, 98.7% Consensus: Mount Union wins in a day which is a struggle for the Denison offense.
Keith’s take: Centre 28, W&J 27 Ryan’s take: Centre 38, W&J 31 Pat’s take: W&J 34, Centre 24	Adam’s take: Centre 31, W&J 24 Frank’s take: Centre 37, W&J 34 Greg’s take: Centre 28, W&J 24
Hansen odds to advance: Centre, 76.7% Consensus: Non-unanimous consensus that Centre wins one of the best games of the day.
Keith’s take: John Carroll 41, Randolph-Macon 17 Ryan’s take: John Carroll 49, Randolph-Macon 13 Pat’s take: John Carroll 42, Randolph-Macon 14	Adam’s take: John Carroll 42, Randolph-Macon 16 Frank’s take: John Carroll 40, Randolph-Macon 13 Greg’s take: John Carroll 35, Randolph-Macon 17
Hansen odds to advance: John Carroll, 85.4% Consensus: John Carroll winning easily.
Keith: Muhlenberg 23, Delaware Valley 20 Ryan: Muhlenberg 28, Delaware Valley 27 Pat: Muhlenberg 34, Delaware Valley 17	Adam: Muhlenberg 35, Delaware Valley 32 Frank: Muhlenberg 34, Delaware Valley 31 Greg: Muhlenberg 31, Delaware Valley 28
Hansen odds to advance: Muhlenberg, 56.0%, the lowest odds of any predicted winner. Consensus: Unanimous picks of road teams are rare, but note that five of the six pick margins of three or less.

Brockport bracket
Keith’s take: Brockport 35, Framingham St. 7 Ryan’s take: Brockport 49, Framingham St. 10 Pat’s take: Brockport 48, Framingham St. 10	Adam’s take: Brockport 38, Framingham St. 6 Frank’s take: Brockport 42, Framingham St. 10 Greg’s take: Brockport 42, Framingham St. 13
Hansen odds to advance: Brockport, 97.7% Consensus: Brockport moving on in the style of their choosing.
Keith’s take: Husson 10, RPI 9 Ryan’s take: RPI 23, Husson 21 Pat’s take: RPI 30, Husson 17	Adam’s take: RPI 24, Husson 20 Frank’s take: RPI 30, Husson 27 Greg’s take: RPI 20, Husson 10
Hansen odds to advance: RPI, 62.6% Consensus: RPI in a non-unanimous game that’s generally expected to be close.
Keith’s take: Frostburg St. 42, Western N.E. 14 Ryan’s take: Frostburg St. 42, Western N.E. 10 Pat’s take: Frostburg St. 45, Western N.E. 10	Adam’s take: Frostburg St. 45, Western N.E. 10 Frank’s take: Frostburg St. 44, Western N.E. 14 Greg’s take: Frostburg St. 38, Western N.E. 7
Hansen odds to advance: Frostburg State, 92.4% Consensus: Frostburg advancing with ease.
Keith’s take: Johns Hopkins 42, MIT 10 Ryan’s take: Johns Hopkins 45, MIT 7 Pat’s take: Johns Hopkins 45, MIT 16	Adam’s take: Johns Hopkins 43, MIT 14 Frank’s take: Johns Hopkins 35, MIT 17 Greg’s take: Johns Hopkins 38, MIT 10
Hansen odds to advance: Johns Hopkins, 96.8% Consensus: Johns Hopkins winning the brainiac bowl.

We invite you to add your predictions in the comments below, or tweet at us at @D3Keith, @NewsTipps, @d3football, @adamturer, @frankrossi and @wallywabash. Download the Around the Nation podcast on Mondays, where Pat and Keith review the picks and the highlights from the weekend’s playoff games.

Around the Nation Podcast 224: Prelude to a bunch of barnburners

Posted on November 16, 2018 by Pat Coleman

If the second round of the playoffs is your big turkey dinner with all the trimmings and every side you could want, then the first round is like that tray of vegetables and dip that you end up nibbling on while you wait. You can smell that turkey, the stuffings, the greens, the bread, but you have to wait.

We all have to wait. And now, not only do we have to wait, but we’re hungry.

Pat Coleman and Keith McMillan get you all lined up for Saturday’s first-round games, with the usual previews from Adam Turer and Frank Rossi. Plus, we hear one Division III quarterback remind us exactly why it’s so important to be able to run the ball in the playoffs, and we’ll talk with Mark Baltz, the Division III coordinator of officials. He tells us how officiating crews get selected and what type of evaluations they go through in the playoffs, not to mention how far they can travel. Plus, there’s a well-known former NFL player who is now a Division III football head coach, and Andrew DiDonato, the head coach at Grove City, has some advice for Earlham and all those who are trying to pick a football program up off the mat.

That and more in the D3football.com Around the Nation podcast. The D3football.com Around the Nation Podcast is a regular conversation between Pat Coleman and Keith McMillan and guests covering the wide range of Division III football.

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Link: Our full NCAA playoff coverage
Mentioned in the podcast: Around the Nation on officials: It’s a thankless job, but these folks do it

Photo: Conor Davies running with the ball, trying to escape a Union safety. (RPI athletics photo)

Theme music: DJmentos.

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Quick Hits: What’s left to do? Lots.

Posted on October 26, 2018 by Pat Coleman

Week 9 this year is too early for anyone to clinch a bid to the playoffs, but those days are coming, and a couple of the games that will be key in deciding automatic bids are being played this weekend.

Our regular crew is Keith McMillan, Ryan Tipps, Pat Coleman, Adam Turer and Frank Rossi. Our sixth spot each week goes to a guest prognosticator, and this week’s is Mary Hardin-Baylor fan Chad Hammonds, someone who follows UMHB very closely and knows that in order to be a fan of a top team, you need to know a little bit about the rest of the country, since you could be playing them in Week 12, 13, 14, etc. .

— Pat Coleman

Which game is the Week 9 game of the week?

Keith’s take: No. 15 Illinois Wesleyan at Millikin. Titans win sets up a huge showdown with NCC next week. A Big Blue win makes CCIW a five-way race to the finish.	Ryan’s take: No. 18 Muhlenberg at No. 23 Johns Hopkins. Hard not to love this matchup, with the winner being in the driver’s seat for Centennial crownery.	Pat’s take: No. 18 Muhlenberg at No. 23 Johns Hopkins. The Centennial’s game of the year most years.
Adam’s take: Muhlenberg at Johns Hopkins. Despite losing their conference opener, the Blue Jays still control their destiny in the Centennial Conference. This is a must-win for the conference’s perennial champion.	Frank’s take: No. 25 Salisbury at Rowan. It’s a game with Pool A & C implications for an undefeated team that’s entering the meat of its schedule (Salisbury). Look for a defensive battle.	Chad’s take: Muhlenberg at Johns Hopkins. An early-season hiccup by the Blue Jays was quickly erased. While the Mules average 459 yards a game, the Blue Jays defense will be up to the challenge.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to get upset?

Keith’s take: No. 13 Berry. Four of Vikings eight wins were within one score in the fourth. Birmingham Southern is 5-2.	Ryan’s take: No. 25 Salisbury. It’s been talked about several times that the undefeated Gulls haven’t been tested much yet. But Rowan certainly has been and is all the better for it.	Pat’s take: No. 25 Salisbury. This is the first big test for Salisbury, while Rowan is battle-tested.
Adam’s take: No. 25 Salisbury. The NJAC gauntlet starts now for the unbeaten Gulls, who travel to Rowan, then host Wesley, then close at Frostburg. The Profs have momentum after knocking off the Wolverines last week.	Frank’s take: No. 11 Wittenberg. “Wabash always fights [Wittenberg hard].” Except for Wabash’s 2015 big win, lately, this matchup is always close. It’s a must-win for Wabash.	Chad’s take: No. 11 Wittenberg. I expect a close game throughout with the Little Giants making a big play late to upend Witt.

Which team hurts its regional ranking before it is even announced?

Keith’s take: I haven’t been this deep in the weeds, but No. 25 Salisbury has a tough matchup at Rowan.	Ryan’s take: Western New England. Not only is this a tough outing against Nichols, but it’s also a trap game for WNE with Endicott coming up next week.	Pat’s take: No. 17 RPI. The Engineers will win, but their strength of schedule will take a hit this week vs. Rochester.
Adam’s take: Baldwin Wallace. The second-best game of the week pits the 6-1 Yellow Jackets at 6-1 Marietta. The winner remains in Pool C contention.	Frank’s take: No. 17 RPI. They currently possess the 24th best strength of schedule figure nationally, but facing 1-6 Rochester won’t help, especially if it’s a remotely close score.	Chad’s take: Millikin. Needing a big win, the 151st ranked defense can’t keep tabs with the 46th ranked offense. A win here would have propelled them to a nice ranking, but the Titans are too much.

Which game are you following that nobody else on this panel is following?

Keith’s take: Wartburg at Loras. The glut at the top of the ARC might remain; Knights are only top-half team to play opponent with winning record.	Ryan’s take: Millsaps at Centre. Compared to Centre’s 6-1 record, Millsaps’ 4-3 is a bit misleading considering more than half of their games had margins of 7 points or less.	Pat’s take: Eureka at Concordia (Wis.). More on that game in the podcast.
Adam’s take: Averett at Maryville. The two conference unbeatens in the USA South meet with much on the line. The Scots’ 2013 appearance is the only playoff berth between these two programs.	Frank’s take: WPI at MIT. It’s a crucial Pool B game in the NEWMAC. An MIT loss could reopen a playoff path for Thomas More and throw the NEWMAC standings into chaos.	Chad’s take: Hardin-Simmons at Southwestern. HSU is playing for its playoff life as they take on a Pirate team who runs well and stops the run well. A traditional, smash-mouth game will not disappoint. HSU with the close win.

Kalamazoo, Misericordia or Eureka?

Keith’s take: Misericordia. Concordia (Wis.), King’s and Olivet are tough opponents, but Misericordia loves company … or something.	Ryan’s take: All three. Kzoo and Eureka have interesting/challenging games, so all three winning is far from a sure thing — and we continue to stay highly vested in their conference races.	Pat’s take: Misericordia. Oh. Maybe people will be following Eureka.
Adam’s take: Misericordia. A road trip to King’s won’t be easy, but it’s the most favorable matchup among three of the season’s most pleasant surprises.	Frank’s take: Kalamazoo over struggling Olivet, Misericordia over inconsistent King’s, and Eureka over a very good Concordia (Wis.) team.	Chad’s take: Kalamazoo. Kalamazoo keeps its MIAA championship dreams alive and keeps an eye on Trine and that Nov. 10 game. .

Defiance, Earlham or William Paterson?

Keith’s take: William Paterson. The Pioneers and their 1-6 opponent, TCNJ, are similarly challenged, scoring 40 and 62 points, respectively, this season.	Ryan’s take: William Paterson. The Pioneers will pick up not just their first win of the season, but also their first win in more than two years.	Pat’s take: Earlham. I’m going with the team on the bye because it’s a good time of the year for a small roster to get a break.
Adam’s take: Earlham. If not now, against winless Defiance, when will the Quakers finally snap their streak? At least the Quakers can’t take an L this week, on their bye.	Frank’s take: I won’t be Defiant against Rose-Hulman, nobody is Quaking at the thought of idle Earlham, but Pioneers will shock TCNJ — even without covered wagons.	Chad’s take: William Paterson. The Pioneers get off the schneid against TCNJ.

We invite you to add your predictions in the comments below. Download the Around the Nation podcast on Fridays, where Pat and Keith review the Quick Hits that were prescient, and the Quick Misses that were terribly off base.