Tag Archives: Adrian

Triple Take: Unbeaten and unranked

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Cortland -- unbeaten and also ranked, but not very highThere are nine undefeated teams still outside of the Top 25. That will change this week as we get to more pairing off in conference play, particularly in the OAC and IIAC.

But as teams look forward to the playoffs, they also have to find ways to stay in the moment. Teams can get caught looking ahead, and midseason is when players’ bumps, bruises and other injuries begin to take their toll, especially on squads that lack depth. Last week, we saw how injuries can help derail teams that appeared to be on track to the postseason.

Pat Coleman, Keith McMillan and Ryan Tipps go over a few teams that will bring the hurt on Saturday, while spotlighting some of the country’s biggest contests.

Game of the Week.
Ryan’s take: Baldwin-Wallace at No. 13 Ohio Northern. We usually count Mount Union as getting the automatic qualifier in the OAC. But what about the other nine teams in the conference? I appreciate history, and history suggests that the OAC will get a second team into the playoffs. In fact, over the past decade, the conference has fielded a second team all but three times. Right now, B-W and ONU are the clear front-runners for that spot, so playoff gold will be on the line come Saturday.
Pat’s take: Wartburg at No. 6 Coe. Wartburg has been sitting outside the Top 25 for too long, and admittedly, I could find a higher spot for the Knights on my ballot. This weekend provides for the distinct possibility that Wartburg could move up in our poll with a close loss. The dissenting view would point out that after the season-opening win against Monmouth, Wartburg has faced Gustavus Adolphus, Cornell, Loras and Buena Vista, not the strong part of its schedule. Coe and Wartburg have no common opponents so far to make the comparison easier.
Keith’s take: No. 23 Cortland State at Rowan. The Red Dragons lead the nation in scoring defense (19 points allowed, or 3.80 per game; They haven’t given up a point since Buffalo State’s third-quarter touchdown on Sept. 18.) and are second to NJAC rival Montclair State in total defense (194.60 yards per game).  To stay on track for the all-red defensive showdown in Week 9 (Oct. 30), Cortland needs to eliminate the only other remaining threat to the conference throne in the Profs. Rowan has settled on quarterback Tim Hagerty but hasn’t found its way offensively, averaging just 17.60 points per game despite rushing for 205 yards a contest. The Profs aren’t bad defensively, surrendering a shade over 14 points per game, so long drives should be tough to come by for either side, and the game could be swayed by a fluke turnover or a special teams score.

Surprisingly close game.
Ryan’s take: Adrian at DePauw. DePauw might be undefeated, but Adrian has been down this road before — they’ve already squared off against UW-Whitewater and Trine this season. So let’s take any intimidation factor off the table right now. Adrian is not a running team, clearly, but against a rush defense like DePauw’s, that’s probably for the best. What Adrian can do is air out the ball, and a few big plays here and there could present some big problems for the Tigers’ secondary.
Pat’s take: Oberlin at Wabash. Actually, I’m not even sure who to favor, except that Wabash is at home which would give them a bit of an edge. But from a name perspective, this game is likely to produce a score that 12 months ago would make you sure it was posted incorrectly.
Keith’s take: St. Vincent at No. 11 Thomas More. Because the Bearcats are just 1-4 and haven’t developed into a consistent winner so far in the program’s revival, folks outside the PAC might not have taken note of the improvement. Three of St. Vincent’s losses have come by five points or fewer, and all have come against teams .500 or better. In last week’s 31-20 loss to the other PAC power, Washington & Jefferson, St. Vincent fell behind 17-0 but didn’t let the game get away, making the score 24-14 in the second half. Thomas More poses quite the challenge, as the measuring stick for PAC teams these days, and we’ll likely see another mark of progress for the Bearcats.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset.
Ryan’s take: No. 20 Randolph-Macon. I don’t see a lot of potential for upsets outside of the Game of the Week contests that we’ve already addressed. And I’m not saying here that Macon is flawed, but in going up against Washington and Lee, we do have a nice comparison in Emory and Henry to use. E&H played each team in the past two weeks and was beaten by at least two scores each time. What’s caught my attention though, is how many points W&L has been putting up. The team’s wins this season have come on 48-, 55- and 45-point performances. R-MC should win this one, but W&L could sneak up if the Yellow Jackets aren’t on their game.
Pat’s take: No. 23 Cortland State. The distance between Cortland State and opponent Rowan is probably not very significant. Rowan struggled on offense earlier in the season but has rebounded with Hagerty taking over the starting quarterback spot.
Keith’s take: No. 1 UW-Whitewater. Okay, so they’re technically the least likely top 25 team to be upset, but if it’s going to happen before the Stagg Bowl, this Saturday is likely as any. UW-Eau Claire is 3-2 and doesn’t stand out statistically, but they’ve played St. John’s, No. 7 North Central and UW-Stevens Point already, so they’ve proven they can stand up with top Division III talent. If the Blugolds can hang close to the almighty Warhawks, they might fare well; UW-EC beat the Johnnies and Pointers in overtime. Plus, the state’s pride, the Badgers, kick off later in the evening, which means any football fan near Eau Claire can come out to Carson Park to give the Blugolds a raucous home atmosphere.

They’ll be on your radar.
Ryan’s take: McDaniel. Over each of the past four weeks, Green Terror defenders have been honored by the conference. And rightfully so. McDaniel opponents average only about 13 points a game this season. All will be on display when the team faces its 4-1 conference bedfellow, Muhlenberg. Both teams are trying to regain their peak, but McDaniel has been enduring a much longer climb to get there.
Pat’s take: Ursinus. See Wartburg above. This is a no-room-at-the-inn exclusion from the Top 25 as well, in my opinion. Perhaps beating Johns Hopkins will get the Bears on enough voters’ radar.
Keith’s take: Claremont-Mudd-Scripps. The Stags are one of the nine unbeaten teams mentioned frequently in this post, and their four wins are Lewis & Clark, first-year Pacific, La Verne and Chapman. SCIAC power Redlands is the stiffest test to date, but CMS has mixed and matched with Patrick Rooney, Peter Kimney, Spencer Clark and Alex Wheatley to rush for nearly 250 yards per game, and if they can pull off a victory against the Bulldogs, nationally we’ll start to take notice.

Which team will we have to start taking seriously?
Ryan’s take: Lycoming. With perennial MAC star Delaware Valley looking good, lots of preseason hype around Lebanon Valley and the not-so-distant playoff past of Albright, the Warriors seemed to duck under the radar for the first six weeks. But now they’re coming off a 50-point walloping of Albright and standing at 4-1, their only loss to a tough Rowan team. With Widener and DelVal games over the next two weeks, we’ll see exactly what Lycoming is made of.
Pat’s take: Salisbury. The Sea Gulls lost their showdown with Hampden-Sydney three weeks ago — barely — but they’re not out of the Pool B race by any stretch, especially considering they have a head-to-head shot with Wesley later. First things first, though, including this week’s home game against Huntingdon.
Keith’s take: The Elmhurst/Illinois Wesleyan winner, and Carthage. Rarely do we discuss defending conference champs as teams we’re not certain about this far into the season, but IWU has underwhelmed while going 4-1, which is the same record both the Bluejays and Redmen have. IWU (29-19) and Elmhurst (27-24) lost to Wheaton, and Carthage (43-8) lost to North Central. But all of these teams can stay in the CCIW hunt with wins on Saturday, Elmhurst or IWU against one another, and Carthage against Augustana. And the CCIW is known for its frequent three-way tie scenarios and sending two teams to the field of 32.

Which team will be affected the most by injury?
Ryan’s take: Wabash. The Little Giants drew their first loss of the season after starting quarterback Chase Belton left midway through last Saturday’s game with an undisclosed injury. The sophomore signal-caller who went 9-12 that day was replaced by Tyler Burke, who managed only 11 for 19 the rest of the game. What makes this particularly stinging isn’t just Belton’s injury but the fact that this is compounded upon other wounds in the skill positions to wideouts Kody LeMond and Wes Chamblee. As of Thursday, Belton is still not cleared to play. A resurging Oberlin team is in town Saturday, and then three even tougher games are right around the corner for Wabash.
Pat’s take: UW-Whitewater. The Wisconsin State Journal report regarding the status of running backs Levell Coppage and Booker Stanley gives pause. That still leaves Antwan Anderson — you remember him, he rushed for 1,213 yards in 2008 — but that’s not the same as having three guys who could rush for 100 yards at the drop of a hat.
Keith’s take: No. 2 Mount Union. The Purple Raiders have D-III’s most dynamic talent in wide receiver Cecil Shorts III (3,938 career receiving yards @UMU) and perhaps its most prolific Twitter user (7,493 @CShorts10). Bothered by a foot injury that cost him part of last week’s game against Marietta, Shorts tweeted midweek that his boot “had to go.” Mount Union, which hosts Heidelberg, might not be affected in the win-loss column, but you can bet the loss of Shorts changes what they do offensively.

How many undefeated teams will be outside the Top 25 after Saturday?
Ryan’s take: Six. I could see two of those teams taking headers: an Adrian upset at DePauw and Claremont-Mudd-Scripps falling to Redlands. And factor in a Baldwin-Wallace loss to Ohio Northern. I also reserve the right to leave on the table any other combination that results in six remaining.
Pat’s take: Four. Well, I see that we have 19 unbeatens in the poll so far and nine out of the poll. We’re guaranteed to lose one unbeaten because Wartburg and Coe face off. Some of our unranked unbeatens aren’t going to make the poll no matter what. I count four additional unbeatens who could lose, one in the poll, and will bank on one moving into the Top 25. But this is still a guess.
Keith’s take: Six. Here are the nine: Wartburg (first team outside the top 25 in also receiving votes), Case Western Reserve (third), Baldwin-Wallace (fourth), Ursinus (sixth), DePauw (seventh), Amherst (11th) and Williams, SUNY-Maritime and Claremont-Mudd-Scripps not receiving any votes. Two factors are at work; how many teams will stay unbeaten, and how many move into the top 25 with wins? Safe bets are on CMS losing to Redlands, and either Wartburg losing to Coe or B-W to ONU. So I say seven of nine stay unbeaten, but only Wartburg or B-W are close enough to move in and playing an opponent that will make voters shake up their order. And there aren’t many top 25 teams facing ultra-tough challenges this week, so not many poll spots will open up. One moves in, and two lose, leaving six.

Triple Take: Finding a rhythm

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In Division III, make-or-break time truly comes during conference play. But for teams that have started either 0-2 or 2-0, Week 3 can become as much of a mental hurdle as anything else. Good teams across the country can find themselves on both sides of the fence.

Will teams in these situations turn a corner or stay the course this weekend? Pat, Keith and I look into our modern crystal balls — mostly consisting of keyboards and lots of numbers — to give you the skinny on what to expect come Saturday.

Wesley's Mike Asiedu Game of the Week.
Ryan’s take: No. 8 Delaware Valley at No. 3 Wesley. Not to take anything away from these two teams, which have rolled through their first two games by combined scores of 54-7 and 81-6, respectively, but this weekend will really show that a Top 10 spot needs to be earned, not just given. Expect to see the defenses showcased (DelVal held its ranked opponent to minus-11 rushing yards last week), and we’ll see how adaptable Wesley’s replacement quarterback, Justin Sottilare, is under real pressure. This should be the toughest regular-season game for both teams.
Keith’s take: No. 19 Mississippi College at No. 9 Hardin-Simmons. Largely for the same reason Pat will use below, it’s nearly another early-season elimination game, as No. 5 Mary Hardin-Baylor also resides in the ASC, and we’ve only once seen a conference (the Empire 8 in 2007) send three teams to the postseason. The Choctaws are the defending conference champions, yet by virtue of reputation and stiff early-season competition, they’re third among ASC teams in our poll. The Cowboys’ start has been impressive, and the 575-mile trip from Clinton to Abilene is a serious one, so the Choctaws have their work cut out.
Pat’s take: No. 11 Ohio Northern at No. 18 Otterbein. The loser may well have to consider itself already out of the playoff hunt, having to run the table and beat Mount Union in order to finish 9-1. After last year’s playoff selection process left out every worthy 8-2 team and snubbed a 9-1 team with better numbers, there’s no real incentive. So congrats!

Surprisingly close game.
Ryan’s take: Augustana at Adrian. Most years, good money would put a mid-level CCIW team heads and shoulders above a mid-level MIAA team. But Adrian has shown a lot of potential on defense, and Augie is coming off a difficult week where it couldn’t get anything going on the ground. If Adrian can keep the Vikings receivers from making too many big plays, the Bulldogs should be able to score enough to keep this close.
Keith’s take: Dubuque at No. 7 Central. Surprising only if you don’t follow the IIAC. From afar it might look like just another day at the office for a top-10, but a regular day for Central includes some fourth-quarter magic to pull out a close game, and this season (wins by six and five) has been more of the same. The Spartans have had a chance against the Dutch for three seasons now, although coaches and personnel have changed in that time. Dubuque — a.k.a. the guys on the other end of last week’s Play of the Week at UW-Platteville — surely had no trouble being hungry in practice this week, coming close but not tasting victory last week.
Pat’s take: Maranatha Baptist at Macalester. Maranatha has lost 26 consecutive games, and only one of those 26 has been less than a two-score game. But the Crusaders don’t have Principia or Blackburn to kick around anymore, and Trinity Bible isn’t on the schedle, so this may already be the last chance for a win this season.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset.
Ryan’s take: No. 17 Trine. The question does say “most likely,” and playing against a WIAC team such as UW-River Falls is always a gamble. Plus, River Falls has been in the lion’s mouth twice this year, and though they’ve gotten chewed up both times, they won’t be the least bit intimidated by what Trine brings to the table.
Keith’s take: No. 23 Montclair State. There weren’t as many choices as usual, with six of the top 25 locked in head-to-head battles where one is guaranteed to lose, but it won’t be much of an upset. I’m not sure Rowan is the favorite heading north, but they have had two weeks to prepare since holding off Lycoming, 24-17. The Profs will also likely give more resistance than Westfield State, which the Redhawks beat 34-0 last Saturday. These Rowan-Montclair State games have a history of surprises though.
Pat’s take: No. 7 Central. I’ve been hesitant to pick any high-level upsets so far this season and Dubuque didn’t exactly light the world on fire last week, but these teams have played great games in recent years and if Central keeps letting teams hang around until the end, eventually someone is going to take the Dutch down.

They’ll be on your radar.
Ryan’s take: McMurry. Last year, this ASC team improved by four games under a new coach. This year, they’ve begun their season thumping on two subpar non-D3 teams, allowing only one score from their opponents while putting 105 points on the board themselves. But now let’s welcome them back to their regularly scheduled division, where they have to line up against conference powerhouse Mary Hardin-Baylor. They’ve had a lot of success throwing the ball, finding seven different receivers for touchdowns so far. Even a loss — if they keep the score close — would say a lot about how far this team has come.
Keith’s take: Franklin & Marshall. Following a 10-7 loss to Ursinus, it’s tough to get on this (Conestoga band-)wagon. And Dickinson, normally tough, is coming off a 38-7 loss at Hobart, so it’s tough to know what to make of the Red Devils either. But a solid win by the Diplomats, who held the Bears to 3 points through 53 minutes last week and gave up just two of 14 third-down conversions, would again make them a team to watch and a playoff dark horse.
Pat’s take: St. John Fisher. The Cardinals could be a little underrated so far, but this game, and then the one following against Hobart, will tell us a lot more than the games against Brockport State and Buffalo State have so far.

Which surprise 2-0 team is least likely to go 3-0?
Ryan’s take: St. Scholastica. It’s exciting to see such a new program jump out to a fast start, but it will experience a pretty big hiccup on the road at Concordia (Ill.). Concordia is the conference favorite in the NATHC and is likely seething after a hefty loss to in-city rival Chicago. If the Cougars get back into their groove with both passing and rushing, they will surely be about the stiffest competition St. Scholastica faces all season.
Keith’s take: McMurry. The uh, notIndians, have started about as well as possible, outscoring opponents 105-6. But a win against ASC power Mary Hardin-Baylor would be a major, major shocker. And the Crusaders hit teams where it hurts — or where it’s most difficult for a program on the rise to find good talent in Division III — along the lines.
Pat’s take: Chicago. It’s been a great two weeks so far, but winning at Elmhurst is a taller order than winning at home against Concordia-Chicago.

Which 0-2 team will earn its first win?
Ryan’s take: Wooster. Assuming Wooster can keep Oberlin quarterback Josh Mandel and his passing game in check, there’s no reason the Scots can’t break into the “W” column this week. As far as 0-2 teams go, there’s little shame in having such a record against the likes of Baldwin-Wallace and Wabash. Plus I have some history on my side: Wooster far outgunned Oberlin 52-7 last season. That’s a pretty big swing to overcome in just 12 months no matter how many new faces are on the field.
Keith’s take: Millsaps. Tough-luck losers so far (27-23 to rival Mississippi College and 27-21 in overtime at LaGrange), the Majors return home with finishing a game on their minds. Austin is 2-0, but no longer has the advantage of being unknown, as Millsaps’ head coach is also new, and there are two game videos out there on each team now. The Majors have outgained their first two opponents, held the ball longer and have limited them to 6 of 27 on third downs. Against the Kangaroos, the Majors just need to figure out how to turn that into a victory.
Pat’s take: St. Norbert. It’s almost impossible to fathom St. Norbert at 0-3 considering they’ve lost three games in a season just once since 1998. Last week, the team reacted to the one-game suspension of coach Jim Purtill by dropping a tight one at Beloit. If the Green Knights go 0-3, who knows what might happen next?

Which upset winner from last week will have the biggest letdown?
Ryan’s take: Grinnell. While there are a bevy of reasons why the Pioneers beat Monmouth last week, the injury of the Scots’ All-America quarterback is a big one. Don’t expect Ripon this week to put Grinnell on a similar fast-track to victory. Ripon is adept at finding the end zone and has a ground game that Grinnell is unlikely to stop. Not to mention that Ripon leads the MWC in turnover ratio. Sorry, Grinnell, but this isn’t going to be your weekend.
Keith’s take: Cal Lutheran. I don’t know that they’ll lose at Pacific Lutheran, but on the heels of a program-altering victory like the one the Kingsmen scored against Linfield last Saturday — with an overpowering second half — it can be very difficult for a team to humble itself and get back to work, especially if the next opponent isn’t a major threat. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Cal Lutheran have another rough first half before waking up late and pulling out a victory.
Pat’s take: Baldwin-Wallace. It’s a nice 2-0 start to the season for Heidelberg but the ride gets a little bumpier here for the Yellow Jackets.

Game day: Bids on the line

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We could have nine automatic bids handed out this week and there are two head-to-head winner-take-all games, between Otterbein and Mount Union in the Ohio Athletic Conference and between Trine and Adrian in the Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association.

There aren’t any live stats for the Otterbein/Mount Union game, but we’ll have updates here on the blog filling in some of the blanks. There’s live audio for that game and others on the Scoreboard.

I’ll be in Eau Claire, Wis., to see if UW-Stevens Point can keep up its run of nail-biters. In fact, I should be getting on the road pretty soon.

There are a couple of key Pool C (at-large bid) games — one of them between Rowan and Montclair State in the NJAC. I just stumbled on a Rowan football blog with some extra information worth checking out. Huntingdon and Hampden-Sydney play in Alabama in a game that affects both at-large pools. And we talked more about these games in the Triple Take yesterday, of course.

Plenty of other games, as always, and thanks to those who drop by with regular updates each week!

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