Quick Hits: For the birds

Posted on October 19, 2018 by Pat Coleman

Eagles, Cardinals — perhaps not more fierce than Bears or … more Bears, I suppose. But those are the focus this week in Week 8 of the 2018 Division III football season.

Our regular crew is Keith McMillan, Ryan Tipps, Pat Coleman, Adam Turer and Frank Rossi. Our sixth spot each week goes to a guest prognosticator, and this week’s is Logan Hansen. You may remember him as the Wartburg alumnus who does a computer ranking of D-III teams, and he is on twitter at @LogHanRatings.

— Pat Coleman

Which game is the Week 8 game of the week?

Keith’s take: UW-La Crosse at No. 12 UW-Oshkosh. This should be closer than the rankings suggest, and could upset the playoff apple cart.	Ryan’s take: No. 17 Illinois Wesleyan at Washington U. The Bears’ win last week over Wheaton put them on everyone’s radars, and this is another tough test.	Pat’s take: No. 17 Illinois Wesleyan at Washington U. I priced out flights to St. Louis for this one. Not in the budget.
Adam’s take: UW-La Crosse at No. 12 UW-Oshkosh. Plenty to choose from this week, but this is essentially a WIAC and playoff elimination game.	Frank’s take: Hobart at No. 19 RPI. This could have Pool C implications if Hobart wins. RPI’s strength of schedule is excellent and will improve — a 1-loss RPI could win an at-large bid.	Logan’s take: No. 17 IWU at Wash U. I’m not sure which result would throw the bigger wrench into the tiebreakers, but Wash. U has shown they belong, and IWU has shown last season wasn’t a fluke.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to get upset?

Keith’s take: No. 15 North Central. Carthage pushed UW-O, IWU and Millikin to the brink, so NCC best bring its A game.	Ryan’s take: No. 12 UW-Oshkosh. Though Oshkosh is coming off a real quality win, UW-La Crosse has shown more than a few flashes of greatness this fall.	Pat’s take: No. 17 Illinois Wesleyan. I look forward to learning if it really is as tough for teams to win in St. Louis as it is for Chicagoland teams in Bloomington.
Adam’s take: No. 19 RPI. Hobart and the Engineers have both played their share of nailbiters this season. The Statesmen win another close one.	Frank’s take: No. 17 Illinois Wesleyan. WashU at home, following a win vs. Wheaton … I’ll play the momentum as the Titans have looked mediocre in wins lately.	Logan’s take: No. 17 Illinois Wesleyan. The model has Wash. U favored by a field goal, 28-25.

Whose unbeaten run comes to an end this week?

Keith’s take: Marietta. The Grey Pioneers allow 31.8 points per game, which is way too loose to beat John Carroll.	Ryan’s take: Marietta. I expect this one to be a popular pick, as the Pioneers are facing John Carroll this week.	Pat’s take: Kalamazoo. Kzoo’s 6-0 isn’t far from Alma’s 1-5, just a different schedule. Similar results vs. Adrian and Albion.
Adam’s take: Marietta. The Pioneers travel to No. 10 John Carroll, and leave with their first loss of 2018. Also, RPI.	Frank’s take: Western Connecticut. The Bridgewater State Bears have been stalking the frontrunners of the MASCAC — a win would give them a chance for the playoffs.	Logan’s take: Central. There’s a reason they haven’t cracked the Top 25 yet, because they haven’t beaten a proven team (except maybe DePauw). Wartburg by a TD according to the model.

Which game are you following that nobody else on this panel is following?

Keith’s take: FDU-Florham at Misericordia. The former could hit five wins for the first time since 2000; the latter had won five ever before this year & now five straight.	Ryan’s take: Hanover at Manchester. I’ve enjoyed watching the Panthers’ resurgence this season. It’s reminiscent to how I remember them from the late ’90s.	Pat’s take: Luther at Nebraska Wesleyan. It’s part of my 25-game tour of D3 from west to east from the podcast.
Adam’s take: Central at Wartburg. The Dutch could also fall from the ranks of the unbeaten, and the ARC race could turn into a logjam at the top.	Frank’s take: No. 2 Mary Hardin-Baylor at Belhaven. UMHB wins, but will the Cru finally resolve their QB contest? Two (let alone, three)-QB systems aren’t optimal, and could be a problem in playoffs.	Logan’s take: Emory & Henry at Shenandoah. If I’m picking a random game to watch, it would be this — the model has the spread at -3 Shenandoah, with an O/U of 93.5. Gonna get pointsy.

Which team is probably safe to focus more on next week?

Keith’s take: Muhlenberg. By the fourth quarter vs. McDaniel, the Mules will allow themselves to ponder Week 9 vs. Johns Hopkins.	Ryan’s take: No. 16 Trine. Opponent Finlandia has a long way before it’ll be competitive at Trine’s level.	Pat’s take: St. Thomas. Carleton has improved this season but won’t be a match for the Tommies.
Adam’s take: Endicott. No coach would approve of this question, but Paul McGonagle’s team faces winless Becker a week before taking on its top CCC competition, Western New England.	Frank’s take: Trinity (Conn.). In a topsy-turvy NESCAC race, Bowdoin is winless. Next up would be Middlebury, the team that shocked Williams last weekend.	Logan’s take: Muhlenberg and Johns Hopkins. Both teams are greater than 97% favorites this week, and most computer models (not mine) think they’re both Top 10 teams.

Who has the edge this week: Cardinals or Eagles?

Keith’s take: Eagles. It’s five against seven, and the Eagles have Brockport and UW-La Crosse on their side.	Ryan’s take: Eagles. In terms of both quantity and quality (see my upset pick above).	Pat’s take: Eagles. But only because of the Golden Eagles of Brockport. Without them, the Cardinals would take it.
Adam’s take: Eagles. Thanks to the Golden variety, ranked No. 3 and hosting Buffalo State.	Frank’s take: Neither. Cardinals: North Central, St. John Fisher; Eagles: Brockport, Husson.	Logan’s take: Eagles. Brockport and Husson basically guaranteed to win. 2.1 expected wins for Cardinals, 2.8 for Eagles.

We invite you to add your predictions in the comments below. Download the Around the Nation podcast on Fridays, where Pat and Keith review the Quick Hits that were prescient, and the Quick Misses that were terribly off base.

Quick Hits Week 7: Eyes on the rivalry and the streak

Posted on October 12, 2018 by Pat Coleman

In addition to the big game between St. Thomas and St. John’s, there are lots of other key games, including one at the other end of the rankings. That’s where Earlham, which has lost 49 consecutive games, faces Anderson. A win will keep Earlham from grabbing a share of the record for the longest Division III football losing streak, ever.

Our regular crew is Keith McMillan, Ryan Tipps, Pat Coleman, Adam Turer and Frank Rossi. Our sixth spot goes to a guest each week, and this week’s is James Baker, Frank Rossi’s co-host on In The Huddle. That’s the two of them staring at each other.

Photo: UW-Oshkosh Kyle Radavich stands in the pocket. (Photo by Daryl Tessmann, d3photography.com)

Which game is the Week 7 game of the week?

Keith’s take: The Tommie-Johnnie game. Next question.	Ryan’s take: Tommie-Johnnie game. Ranked teams. Fierce rivalry. Smothering defenses. The recent loss of a legend. MIAC title hopes. Sentence fragments.	Pat’s take: No. 3 St. Thomas at No. 8 St. John’s. The game of any week.
Adam’s take: Tommie-Johnnie. A battle of top ten teams that means even more in light of the great John Gagliardi’s passing.	Frank’s take: St. Thomas at St. John’s. When John passed away last weekend, it made this game even more special. The emotion here will be intense, leading to a back-and-forth affair.	James’ take: St. Thomas at St. John’s. With all due respect to No. 4 Brockport and Alfred, this is the easy pick, especially with the passing of legendary SJU coach John Gagliardi weighing heavily.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to get upset?

Keith’s take: No. 13 UW-Oshkosh. UW-Platteville, which is one six-minute stretch vs. Thomas More from being unbeaten, is likely the better team.	Ryan’s take: No. 13 UW-Oshkosh. If not for a loss to Thomas More early in the season, Platteville would be ranked and this would seem even less of an upset.	Pat’s take: No. 23 Muhlenberg. If Thomas More could do it to Platteville, it could do the same in this game.
Adam’s take: No. 13 UW-Oshkosh. The Titans still have not discovered an offensive identity, and UW-Platteville can remain squarely in the WIAC title mix.	Frank’s take: No. 13 UW-Oshkosh. I just don’t see where the Titans are going to find the points to beat UW-Platteville. The better offense will win a close one here.	James’ take: No. 23 Muhlenberg. While I don’t want to root against the Mike Cragg coaching tree, Thomas More needs to win this game more than the Mules to stay in the hunt for a playoff bid.

Who bounces back from a noteworthy loss?

Keith’s take: No. 9 Hardin-Simmons. Shut out by UMHB, the Cowboys should go back to scoring 50-plus vs. Sul Ross State.	Ryan’s take: George Fox. Fell to ranked Whitworth last week and is now hunting for its first conference win (as is opponent Willamette).	Pat’s take: Chapman. The Panthers should find Occidental a different challenge than Redlands was.
Adam’s take: Hardin-Simmons. The Cowboys should avenge last week’s rare shutout by bouncing back with a vengeance against winless Sul Ross State.	Frank’s take: Ithaca. The Bombers have a tremendous defense that can tame Union’s offense enough to allow Ithaca to sneak out with a win in essentially an elimination game.	James’ take: No. 7 Wesley.The Wolverines will take out their frustrations over losing by one point to Frostburg State with a methodical thumping of 1-4 Kean, who’s been outscored 117-25 this season.

Which game are you following that nobody else on this panel is following?

Keith’s take: Montclair State at Salisbury. I might be overhyping this, but I’m curious if either 5-0 NJAC team can push Wesley or Frostburg State.	Ryan’s take: Simpson at Central. Not far from the beaten path since both are undefeated in conference play, but I’ve been itching to see someone really stand out in ARC action.	Pat’s take: Hartwick at St. John Fisher. Sounds random, but tune into the podcast to find out why.
Adam’s take: Averett at N.C. Wesleyan. The Cougars last shared a conference title in 2006. The Battling Bishops won the USA South in 2009 and shared the title in 2010.	Frank’s take: Endicott at UNE. After their first program victory against Curry, the Nor’easters have a chance to create chaos in the CCC if they can play well again on their blue turf.	James’ take: Ithaca vs. Union. In what amounts to a playoff-elimination game for both teams, Liberty League preseason favorite Ithaca needs to win out and RPI to lose to have any shot.

Six NACC teams are 1-4 overall. Which ones will move to 2-4?

Keith’s take: Lakeland and Benedictine.	Ryan’s take: Lakeland and Wisconsin Lutheran. The Muskies have faced some good nonconference teams, which helps in NACC play, and the Warriors is where my gut’s at.	Pat’s take: Lakeland and Benedictine. Lakeland over Rockford, Benedictine over Wisconsin Lutheran.
Adam’s take: Lakeland. The Muskies have a recent winning pedigree, while the Regents have not posted a winning season since joining the NACC.	Frank’s take: Benedictine and Lakeland.	James’ take: Benedictine and Rockford.

Does Earlham get off the schneid this week?

Keith’s take: No. I said they would not in the podcast, so I’m obligated to stick with Anderson here.	Ryan’s take: No. The Quakers haven’t yet figured out how to keep a game close let alone win one.	Pat’s take: Reply hazy, try again. Seems unlikely, unfortunately. And Macalester fans seem to enjoy holding the record for longest losing streak, too.
Adam’s take: No. The Quakers’ best chance will come on Nov. 3 against Defiance, after the record for futility has been broken.	Frank’s take: No. There really is a difference between being outscored 341-39 (Earlham) vs. 209-72 (Anderson).	James’ take: Nope. Sorry, Quakers.

Quick Hits: Reaching the midway point

Posted on October 5, 2018 by Pat Coleman

It’s hump week in Division III football: five weeks down, and five weeks remaining after this one. Does it feel like a Wednesday to you? If so, it can only be the best Wednesday ever! Here’s our crew’s predictions for Week 6.

Our regular crew is Keith McMillan, Ryan Tipps, Pat Coleman, Adam Turer and Frank Rossi. Our sixth spot goes to a guest each week, and this week’s is Paul Schreel. Paul is an Ohio Northern grad and former Division III broadcaster now coaching high school football in Arizona.

— Pat Coleman

Which game is the Week 6 game of the week?

Keith’s take: No. 7 Hardin-Simmons at No. 2 Mary Hardin-Baylor. Red-hot teams could serve notice and crack top 5 or flip No. 1 votes.	Ryan’s take: No. 7 Hardin-Simmons at No. 2 Mary Hardin-Baylor. This is my most-anticipated conference title bout every year, and neither team has disappointed this year.	Pat’s take: No. 5 Frostburg State at No. 6 Wesley. The first big battle in the NJAC, which might only have one big battle.
Adam’s take: No. 5 Frostburg State at No. 6 Wesley. A rivalry, in its final year, likely with the conference title at stake. Last year’s OT thriller will be topped.	Frank’s take: No. 5 Frostburg State at No. 6 Wesley. It’s the lowest combined ranking in an East Region matchup I can remember, and the stakes are major with just five Pool C bids available this year. I expect a low-scoring affair.	Paul’s take: No. 7 Hardin-Simmons at No. 2 Mary Hardin-Baylor. With the No. 1 and No. 6 total offenses in Division III facing off, the first defense to force a punt could decide the game.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to get upset?

Keith’s take: No. 9 St. John’s. There’s a Johnnies fan at work and he’s worried about quarterback Jaran Roste and the Royals.	Ryan’s take: No. 9 St. John’s. Bethel is having a resurgence this year and could catch the Johnnies looking ahead to the biggin on Oct. 13.	Pat’s take: No. 22 Whitworth. All the Top 25-on-Top 25 games mean qualifying upset opportunities are few. This pick relies on some overconfidence.
Adam’s take: No. 24 Muhlenberg. The Centennial cannibalization continues as the Mules join Ursinus in the “previously unbeaten” ranks.	Frank’s take: No. 20 RPI. It wouldn’t be an upset on my ballot, because I’ve had Ithaca higher all season. Ithaca’s body of work thus far has been better. Home field helps Bombers win a close game.	Paul’s take: No. 22 Whitworth. A week after a tough win over Linfield, the Pirates will have their hands full traveling to George Fox.

Outside of the ‘big six,’ which Top 25 game will be the most interesting?

Keith’s take: Carthage at Illinois Wesleyan. Remember, Red Men gave UW-Oshkosh a run for its money.	Ryan’s take: No. 22 Whitworth at George Fox. Coming off last week’s win, I’m curious if Whitworth is that good or Linfield was that bad. This’ll help me sort that out.	Pat’s take: Chapman at Redlands. The last game of the night should be a good one, and the SCIAC automatic bid will likely go to the winner.
Adam’s take: No. 22 Whitworth at George Fox. The Bruins could make it two in a row over the Pirates and the NWC could enter Week 3 of conference play wide open.	Frank’s take: Willamette at No. 25 Linfield. Linfield should win big, but their performance so far places a lot in doubt. If Willamette keeps it close, I’d consider dropping Linfield out of my ballot entirely.	Paul’s take: No. 24 Muhlenberg at Ursinus. The Centennial Conference has four legitimate challengers for a title this year. The loser of this game is out of that conversation, though.

Which game are you following that nobody else on this panel is following?

Keith’s take: Alvernia at Misericordia. New and new-ish program have combined for four wins so far this season.	Ryan’s take: Johns Hopkins at Franklin & Marshall. Two teams with a blemish and outside the T25, but I’m not ready to cast either to the curb just yet.	Pat’s take: Whittier at Occidental. Oxy did the right thing and gave Whittier The Shoes after Oxy failed to make the 2017 game. Could Whittier snap its 33-game skid and win them outright?
Adam’s take: Manchester at Mount St. Joseph. I’ll be there to see how these prolific offenses stack up against quality competition, which is not always on the opposite sideline in the HCAC.	Frank’s take: Norwich at Merchant Marine. I’ll be attending this game, as it’s a nearby matchup between two military service academies. If it’s anything like Norwich/Coast Guard two weeks ago, it will be a classic.	Paul’s take: Chapman at Redlands. It looks like the winner will be in the driver’s seat for a SCIAC title and the automatic playoff berth.

It’s hump week in D-III: Who serves notice that they’re going to turn things around?

Keith’s take: Linfield. The 1-2 Wildcats chase a record 63rd consecutive winning season by winning at Willamette.	Ryan’s take: Southwestern. After a solid ASC debut in 2017, my expectations were a lot higher for the Pirates, and the next couple of games are winnable ones.	Pat’s take: Aurora. An 0-4 start, albeit against a slate of decent teams, is unexpected and the Spartans should bounce back.
Adam’s take: Albright (vs. Wilkes). The Lions have played a brutal schedule and have taken a beating. They could start a run to finish over .500 in their final five games.	Frank’s take: Buffalo State. With Alfred coming off a close game vs. Morrisville St., Buffalo State with their first win last week might have enough momentum to upset the Saxons in Buffalo.	Paul’s take: Cal Lutheran. The offense looked good last week against an overmatched Occidental but they will prove it wasn’t a fluke and go on a run in SCIAC play.

Pick an unranked unbeaten team which will lose (to an unranked team) this week?

Keith’s take: Albion. At Hope, which knocks off one of the three 4-0 MIAA teams.	Ryan’s take: Union. Granted, they’re not playing the Hobart of old, but this will still be a tough road for the Dutchmen.	Pat’s take: Albion. The Britons have done well this season and that includes a win vs. Franklin but Hope comes in well-tested in the first five weeks.
Adam’s take: Albion. Hope held a fourth quarter lead over Trine. The Flying Dutchmen regain momentum with a win over the unbeaten Britons.	Frank’s take: Amherst. Middlebury has bounced back from its opening loss, playing winning football as consistently as Amherst. The Panthers shock the Mammoths in Vermont.	Paul’s take: Salisbury. Christopher Newport hosts the Sea Gulls and could hand them their first loss of 2018.

D3football.com

Category Archives: Quick Hits

Quick Hits: For the birds

Which game is the Week 8 game of the week?

Which Top 25 team is most likely to get upset?

Whose unbeaten run comes to an end this week?

Which game are you following that nobody else on this panel is following?

Which team is probably safe to focus more on next week?

Who has the edge this week: Cardinals or Eagles?

Quick Hits Week 7: Eyes on the rivalry and the streak

Which game is the Week 7 game of the week?

Which Top 25 team is most likely to get upset?

Who bounces back from a noteworthy loss?

Which game are you following that nobody else on this panel is following?

Six NACC teams are 1-4 overall. Which ones will move to 2-4?

Does Earlham get off the schneid this week?

Quick Hits: Reaching the midway point

Which game is the Week 6 game of the week?

Which Top 25 team is most likely to get upset?

Outside of the ‘big six,’ which Top 25 game will be the most interesting?

Which game are you following that nobody else on this panel is following?

It’s hump week in D-III: Who serves notice that they’re going to turn things around?

Pick an unranked unbeaten team which will lose (to an unranked team) this week?