Quick Hits Week 6: Welcome to hump week

Posted on October 7, 2016 by Pat Coleman

We’re right at the midpoint of the Division III football regular season. Or, if you’re Mount Union, you’re about done warming up. Five weeks before this one and five weeks after, and yes, then a five-week playoff, which some of the teams we mention this week will qualify for. (Perhaps UW-Oshkosh, with quarterback Brett Kasper above, photo by Steve Frommell, d3photography.com) This week’s guest is former Linfield defensive end Ryan Carlson, who runs Catdomealumni.com and does all the great video highlights from Linfield games.

— Pat Coleman

**Which game is the game this week?**

Keith’s take: No. 5 UW-Oshkosh at No. 2 UW-Whitewater. Two top-five teams and potentially key to a WIAC three-way tie.	Ryan’s take: No. 5 UW-Oshkosh at No. 2 UW-Whitewater. UW-W’s season is a bit front-loaded.	Pat’s take: No. 5 UW-Oshkosh at No. 2 UW-Whitewater. That’s why I’m going. Next question.
Adam’s take: No. 5 UW-Oshkosh at No. 2 UW-Whitewater. The Titans and Warhawks have split their past four meetings. This one is a toss up.	Frank’s take: No. 13 Salisbury at Rowan. No. 2 vs. No. 5 has two teams in the playoffs, win or lose. This game, though, could control an entire region’s Pool C hopes.	Ryan C’s take: Someone will get cute and NOT say Oshkosh at Whitewater but that’s like one of those stuffy baseball writers who didn’t vote for Ken Griffey Jr. as a first ballot Hall of Famer. Of course, it’s Oshkosh at Whitewater.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to get upset?

Keith’s take: No. 12 Hardin-Simmons (at Louisiana College). Each team is scoring about 47 points per game.	Ryan’s take: No. 12 Hardin-Simmons, especially if they’re plagued by another tight first half.	Pat’s take: No. 14 St. John Fisher. Morrisville State is 0-4, but against four quality opponents. So, could happen.
Adam’s take: No. 22 Hobart. RPI has a chance, two weeks after losing by six to No. 21 St. Lawrence. There’s no dominant team in the Liberty League this year.	Frank’s take: No. 22. Hobart has yet to play four quarters of football the way the Statesmen should. RPI has been their spoiler before and looks to do it again at home.	Ryan C’s take: No. 13 Salisbury. The Sea Gulls have been on a roll in 2016 but they’re good to drop a few games a year and this matchup against Rowan is one of them.

It’s hump week in D-III: Who serves notice that they’re going to turn things around?

Keith’s take: Ohio Northern. Polar Bears, already playing their fourth road game, finally play to their preseason expectations at 3-1 Capital.	Ryan’s take: Albion. Winless in October is an unenviable place to be.	Pat’s take: Lycoming. Taking out frustrations at FDU-Florham. (Ignoring failure to do so at Misericordia.)
Adam’s take: Whichever SCAC team off to a very disappointing start wins the Trinity, Texas (2-2) at Texas Lutheran (0-4) game.	Frank’s take: Cortland (vs. Buffalo State). The defending E8 champs struggled to beat Hartwick’s marginal defense last week but finally seize momentum.	Ryan C’s take: Whitworth. They dropped that tight game vs Central and struggled to put away La Verne and George Fox. This week they tighten it up to set up the Linfield showdown.

Pick an upset winner in a conference ATN ranked in the 20s.

Keith’s take: Norwich, surprisingly 0-4, wins at 2-2 Becker by getting struggling offense on track in the No. 27 ECFC.	Ryan’s take: Western Connecticut over Mass. Maritime, two teams on opposite ends of the No. 23 MASCAC.	Pat’s take: RIpon over Lake Forest. This is in the No. 21 Midwest Conference.
Adam’s take: From the No. 25 NACC: Concordia (Wis.) knocks off Benedictine at home this week.	Frank’s take: Western Connecticut nearly beat other co-leader Bridgewater State last week. The Colonials haven’t maximized their offensive weapons.	Ryan C’s take: Occidental over CMS. CMS is flirting with the Top 25 while a Caltech ultimate frisbee team could put up 30 on Oxy. But Oxy and CMS have played tight game after tight game and the Tigers might just have it in them.

What’s your over-under on the Guilford/Hampden-Sydney game?

Keith’s take: 56. Guilford 42-14?	Ryan’s take: 68.	Pat’s take: 49.5. Still grass at Hampden-Sydney, right? That should be fun.
Adam’s take: 54.5. The Quakers have so far had little trouble reloading at QB and WR. Now, they must replace their RB, as De’Eric Bell is lost with a knee injury.	Frank’s take: 33. With rain in the forecast, I see this traditional track meet slowing down a bit. That said, I missed the last Over/Under by about 90 points.	Ryan C’s take: 43.5.

Pretend you have all day Saturday to watch four D-III games in sequence, live. Which four?

Keith’s take: Alfred State/Dean or Finlandia/Trinity Bible in the 12-2 window, then Oshkosh/Whitewater … just for the contrast. Hardin-Simmons at LC at 7, then Claremont-Mudd-Scripps at Oxy.	Ryan’s take: DePauw/Wittenberg, Brockport/Utica, Trinity/Texas Lutheran, Pomona-Pitzer/Cal Lutheran.	Pat’s take: Springfield at Union. Since the triple-option game is fast, I sneak in UWO/UWW before Puget Sound-Whitworth, the Belhaven-Sul Ross track meet and Chapman-Whittier, since I’ll need to multi-task.
Adam’s take: I’m heading to DePauw at Wittenberg, then Pacific Lutheran at Willamette, Hardin-Simmons at Louisiana College and Claremont-Mudd-Scripps at Occidental.	Frank’s take: No. 22 Hobart at RPI, Brockport at Utica, No. 12 Hardin-Simmons at Louisiana College, Claremont-Mudd-Scripps at Occidental.	Ryan C’s take: Oshkosh at Whitewater, Linfield at Pacific, Hardin-Simmons at Louisiana College, CMS at Occidental (and hit In-and-Out afterwards).

We invite you to add your predictions in the comments below. Download the Around the Nation podcast on Mondays, where Pat and Keith review the picks that were prescient, and those that were terribly off base.

ATN Podcast: Shaking off the big loss

Posted on September 19, 2016 by Pat Coleman

It was definitely a tough weekend for Linfield and Washington & Jefferson, and a great weekend for Mary Hardin-Baylor and Thomas More, and we had people at both games and talk with the people involved. But we also have to re-evaluate what we thought we learned about some teams in the first two weeks — is Delaware Valley’s win vs. Wesley, or Utica’s win vs. Ohio Northern as big as we thought? Pat and Keith walk us through it in the Around the Nation Podcast.

The Around the Nation Podcast is a weekly conversation between Pat Coleman and Keith McMillan covering the wide range of Division III football. It drops on Monday morning weekly throughout the season.

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Photo by Joe Fusco, d3photography.com
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Quick Hits for Week 3

Posted on September 16, 2016 by Pat Coleman

Sure, we’d all love to be in Hawaii, where Pacific is playing Occidental, but the D3football.com budget is really tight. We’re lucky to be able to send one person to Texas, but we really wouldn’t miss Linfield playing Mary Hardin-Baylor if at all possible. Our guest for this round of Quick Hits is Logan Hansen, a Wartburg grad who has a computer ratings system he uses to rank D-III teams and predict games. You can follow him at @LogHanRatings on Twitter. Photo by B. Scott Presley, d3photography.com

— Pat Coleman

Belton, Hawaii, or somewhere else?

Keith’s take: Hawaii, if D3football.com is paying. Otherwise, somewhere else. Like W&J/Thomas More.	Ryan’s take: Belton. I picked it as my game of the year in Kickoff.	Pat’s take: Belton. I leave for Austin on Friday morning. See you at the Mary Hardin-Baylor/Linfield game!
Adam’s take: Somewhere else. There’s a Top 25 matchup that is also a conference rivalry 25 minutes from my house. See you in Crestview Hills.	Frank’s take: Belton. I haven’t had an authentic breakfast burrito since the 2008 playoffs, and I’ve yet to get to see the new UMHB stadium.	Logan’s take: Des Moines. I have a friend’s wedding, otherwise Hawaii, because it’s Hawaii.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to get upset?

Keith’s take: No. 15 Cortland. No. 9 North Central if you want someone not facing a Top 25 opponent.	Ryan’s take: No. 19 Huntingdon. Belhaven is proving to be tougher than I expected.	Pat’s take: No. 14 Delaware Valley. Of course, King’s is a lot less likely to sneak up on anyone now.
Adam’s take: Wesley. I’m not yet sold on the Wolverines, but I’m buying CNU, especially at home.	Frank’s take: No. 9 North Central vs. Illinois Wesleyan. Being on the road against a conference rival for the first D3 game is a challenge.	Logan’s take: No. 7 Wheaton at 25%. Because it’s too easy to pick Top 25 vs. Top 25 games.

St. Lawrence and Northwestern have allowed no points through two games. Who allows more on Saturday?

Keith’s take: Northwestern.	Ryan’s take: Northwestern, though both will get scored on at least a little.	Pat’s take: St. Lawrence. Endicott is 0-2, sure, but they’re the better opponent than who Northwestern is facing.
Adam’s take: Northwestern.	Frank’s take: Northwestern. St. Lawrence faces 0-2 Endicott, while Northwestern faces 1-0 Minnesota-Morris. It’s science.	Logan’s take: St. Lawrence. My model has St. Lawrence giving up a touchdown more.

If you were a bird, what kind of bird would you be?

Keith’s take: Isn’t that a Nelly Furtado song? I’d be a Seahawk. From Salve Regina.	Ryan’s take: A Sea Gull. Salisbury is riding a high, and that’ll carry over into NJAC play.	Pat’s take: An Owl. Well, a Prof, actually. It’s just that the Rowan Profs use an owl as their mascot. Home to William Paterson.
Adam’s take: A Blue Jay. Johns Hopkins can make a statement at home against a Moravian team that has been very impressive since the beginning of 2015.	Frank’s take: A purple macaw. I mean, that bird hasn’t had its feathers in a ruffle during many regular season games in 11 years…	Logan’s take: Anything but a Kohawk. Literally means “like the hawk,” as if that clears it up.

Who bounces back best from a noteworthy loss?

Keith’s take: St. Norbert.	Ryan’s take: Ohio Northern. No fourth-quarter collapses this time around.	Pat’s take: Hampden-Sydney. Although I must admit some trepidation because Ferrum is playing well.
Adam’s take: Albright gets into the win column and keeps its MAC hopes alive.	Frank’s take: Ohio Northern. It’s a survival game at Heidelberg, and the Utica loss taught the Polar Bears a lot about closing games out after starting strong.	Logan’s take: John Carroll. 19-point favorites vs. Baldwin Wallace after Week 1 loss to UW-Oshkosh.

Which future conference matchup will be most interesting this week?

Keith’s take: Catholic-Coast Guard.	Ryan’s take: Texas Lutheran at Louisiana College. Neither has beaten a D-III team yet this year and each needs a win — bad.	Pat’s take: Catholic-Coast Guard. Listeners to the last podcast know why. You should listen to the podcast!
Adam’s take: Ithaca at Hobart. Future Liberty League rivals (for now).	Frank’s take: Ithaca at Hobart. It’s under the lights, has some recent playoff history attached, and matches up teams that haven’t played to potential in 2016 — that part changes Saturday.	Logan’s take: Ithaca at Hobart. Ithaca’s D should keep this close, but they need to score somehow.