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Triple Take: Predictions for a rowdy Week 2 in Division III

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Baldwin Wallace rolls out for the 2014 season this week.

Some of my Washington Post coworkers who love college football have spent the week lamenting what a lame slate Division I FBS has got going on this weekend. No such issues here in Division III, which makes it a good week to get out from in front of the TV and go to a game.

There’s one clash of ranked teams, and ten — count ’em, ten — ranked teams taking on pretty good challenges, be they against teams on the fringe of the rankings, teams with recent playoff pedigree or teams expected to push for a conference title and finish with a winning record.

To help make sense of the 200-plus teams in action are Pat Coleman, Keith McMillan (that’s me) and Ryan Tipps:

Game of the week
Keith’s take: No. 5 Wesley at Salisbury: I’m going to burn up my quota of Wesley picks pretty soon, but with just five games against D-III teams, and any loss putting a Pool B playoff spot in jeopardy, this game has wide-ranging implications. Plus it’s top 25-caliber rivals under the lights (6 p.m. kick). The Wolverines had two defensive starters ejected last week, but safety Sean Hopkins’s suspension for targeting was overturned on appeal, and all-American linebacker Sosthene Kapepula starts this week because getting tossed for two personal fouls doesn’t come with a suspension for the following game.
Ryan’s take: Christopher Newport at No. 24 Hampden-Sydney. I’ve been filling in my answers from bottom to top and already used up (beware of spoilers) the Wesley and Rowan games, so I’m looking at other matchups. But I’m also not going to be shy highlighting Hampden-Sydney’s matchup twice in two weeks. The Tigers and Captains are both coming off losses to very physical teams, and the “healing” factor might be the key to who comes away victorious this weekend. Last season, CNU surprised H-SC early and put up the points needed to win. This year, I think both teams are genuinely better than their 2013 incarnations, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this is a matchup between the future winners of the ODAC and USAC.
Pat’s take: No. 7 Bethel at No. 15 Wartburg. I feel like the Midwest guy saying this but I do feel like this is one of the best games of the week and for me, at least, worth the six-hour round trip. After seeing how Wartburg manhandled Augsburg last week, a middle-of-the-pack team in Bethel’s conference, I’m interested to see how they stack up here. Wartburg has that advantage from this being its second game of the season and that’s big. Also, Bethel graduated a ton of receiving prowess, and that helped the program make a jump into the next tier, at least in my opinion. They have been more multi-dimensional the past couple of years. Erik Peterson’s season ended early last year as well because of injury and in his return, he will be facing a defensive front that knows how to get to the quarterback. Primed for an upset, although I don’t generally include games between ranked teams as upset picks or teams most likely to lose.

Surprisingly close game
Keith No. 5 Linfield at Chapman: I went way out on a limb with this pick in Kickoff, and there’s some logic behind it. The Wildcats have scuffled with good SCIAC teams on the road in the past, and the Panthers are pretty good. Chapman has nine back on offense to Linfield’s three on D. It’s no short trip. And even if the Panthers don’t pull what would be a major upset, for the people across the country who know Linfield as an elite program and don’t really know Chapman, don’t be surprised if it’s close.
Ryan: Methodist at Guilford. So a close game here isn’t going to be a huge surprise aside from the fact that Guilford cleaned up a lot more heartily than Methodist did in Week 1. But there wasn’t any other category that this game fit under – and I wanted to make sure it was highlighted in Triple Take. If I picked the likely conference winners in my Game of the week, listed here are the best-bet runners-up. Scoring should be high in this one, and it very well could be a turnover or two that makes the difference.
Pat: Illinois College at Rose-Hulman. This is a game that I don’t know how to analyze and would love to just see it happen. RHIT is on a bit of an upswing of late and could compete for another (share of a) HCAC title. For IC, this is the only test on the schedule outside of the Midwest Conference opponents.

Most likely top 25 team to lose
Keith No. 24 Hampden-Sydney: No. 15 Wartburg is more likely to lose, facing No. 7 Bethel, but in the spirit of the category, I’ll pick a ranked team to lose to a non-ranked team. On one hand, H-SC should bounce back from its loss last weekend out at Wabash, especially with what should be a pretty high-powered offense. On the other, Christopher Newport came 47 seconds from shutting the Tigers out in a 17-7 win last season, so this isn’t too much of a stretch.
Ryan: No. 11 St. Thomas. UW-La Crosse is but a shadow of the conference-contending team it fielded a decade or so ago, but the Eagles are also good for an upset here and there, and they maintain themselves as competitive in many of their major outings.
(Editor’s reminder: We don’t consult with each other while making our picks)
Pat: No. 11 St. Thomas. I’ll probably get a phone call or a text or get pulled aside after a game to be asked about this but in the first game so far, St. Thomas had to hold on at the end to beat UW-Eau Claire, and we think UW-La Crosse is another step up the WIAC ladder. Meanwhile, UW-L had a nice first week. UST is a defensive-oriented team at the moment, at least until the offense catches up, and a low-scoring game keeps UW-L in it longer.

Team inactive in Week 1 that’s most impressive in Week 2
Keith: No. 6 North Central. The Cardinals, with just eight starters back, were built for last season, and nearly made the Stagg Bowl. They have a huge clash with No. 8 UW-Platteville coming up next week, so opening with St. Norbert should be a decent test. They’ll pass with flying colors.
Ryan: No. 6 North Central. Opponent St. Norbert is always good for an above-.500 season (read: SOS bump), which makes a playoff hopeful like North Central happy come seeding time. And the Cardinals likely won’t be feeling behind despite the Green Knights already having a game under their belt. North Central should glide comfortably to a win. (As an aside, St. Norbert is one of those teams that impresses me by scheduling tough in nonconference play year after year, with Wartburg, St. Thomas and John Carroll as some recent opponents. It will likely be another loss for the Green Knights, but at least they’re putting themselves out there.)
Pat: Baldwin Wallace. The Yellow Jackets are one of the three OAC teams that have a Week 1 bye and play non-conference in Week 2 before moving into the conference schedule. Even though Bluffton played last week, an upper-division OAC team should not be fazed by that extra week of preparation.

Team that lost in Week 1 that’s most impressive in Week 2
Keith: No. 22 Thomas More. The Saints play at Hanover, the second road game of a five-in-six stretch to open the season. The Panthers aren’t bad, but they aren’t Wesley either. I was impressed with Thomas More’s sure tackling and fiesty effort last week, and against normal-for-D-III team speed, the offense should look more like that 40-point-a-game group it was last season.
Ryan: Dickinson. The Red Devils found their fire in the fourth quarter last week against 12th-ranked Hobart. If that can carry over to Week 2 against a Juniata team that has surged from the Centennial depths, then Dickinson will have a lot to look forward to this season.
Pat: No. 24 Hampden-Sydney. The Tigers will be extra motivated not to start 0-2 and also exorcise the demons of last year’s meeting with Christopher Newport. I mean, I assume there are some demons associated with throwing five interceptions and not scoring in the first 59 minutes of the game. That’s a nice first couple of weeks on the schedule for H-SC and CNU and now the Tigers are going to want to make sure they are the team that comes out of it 1-1 and the Captains go 0-2.

Rivalry game that turns out most exciting
Keith: The Secretaries’ Cup. The Chowder Bowl, won by SUNY-Maritime by one over Mass. Maritime with a late score on Thursday night, got the weekend off to a good start. And not far from Throggs Neck, N.Y., in New London, Conn., Merchant Marine and Coast Guard play in one of the most idyllic settings in college football. The Secretaries’ Cup is full of so much atmosphere (I wrote about it a few years ago) that the game being good is practically a bonus.
Ryan: No. 5 Wesley at Salisbury. Three points, 10 points, nine points, three points … You have to go back more than half a decade to find a matchup between Wesley and Salisbury that wasn’t tense and tightly fought. These two teams annually bring their best when they line up, and the fact that Salisbury moved to the E8 a couple of years ago has done nothing to lessen the intensity that patrols Route 13. Despite the close scores, the Wolverines have owned the Gulls year in and year out for the past decade, which may be the only strike against this matchup from a neutral fan’s perspective.
Pat: The Chowder Bowl. Already played by the time this gets posted (but not yet as of this writing), the two maritime schools getting together just upriver from Lower Manhattan on Sept. 11 has to take precedence over everything else.

Best New England performance against a big-conference team
Keith: Bridgewater State. First off, kudos props to Endicott for stepping up their game and scheduling Hobart, following Framingham State’s date with Rowan and Salve Regina’s with Montclair State. More respect for football in a particular region is earned by winning. And it helps to win on the weeks when folks across the nation are paying attention. I think all three New England teams mentioned have a chance to win, but the best chance is the Bears, at the NJAC’s William Paterson.
Ryan: Rowan at Framingham State. I still have Rowan on my Top 25 ballot, though squeaked in just under the wire. I also picked Framingham State as a near-miss Pool B candidate in Kickoff. Whether it’s the best or not, it’s certainly the one I’m most interested in and the one that will be the most telling in the long run.
Pat: Endicott. Nearly picked for a category before I saw the rest of the questions, I like the Gulls’ chances of keeping it close. You know, in a Western New England-Union kind of way, but probably without the upset. I think Salve has the best chance of a win, but that Endicott might give the best performance.

They’ll be on your radar
Keith: Puget Sound. The Loggers have one win the past three seasons (2011-13). But after an opening-week home victory over Claremont-Mudd-Scripps, they can make it two wins this season Saturday at Occidental. The Tigers didn’t play last week, but have 17 starters back from a 5-4 team, so it might be a lot to ask.
Ryan: Augsburg. I don’t believe that the 40-3 loss that they were dealt in Week 1 represents the kind of team Augsburg really is. I expect the Auggies to bounce back this week against Concordia (Wis.). And if they don’t, well, the MIAC is right around the corner and it isn’t a forgiving place.
Pat: Central. A win vs. Monmouth would virtually assure Central of a 3-0 start heading into the Week 5 game vs. Wartburg (the intervening weeks are a home game vs. Maranatha and a bye). Also, kudos to Monmouth for going out and playing its non-conference games against actual non-Midwest Conference teams (looking at you, Grinnell, Beloit, Cornell).

Triple Take: Penultimate picks

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Either Wabash or Wittenberg will clinch the NCAC automatic bid Saturday.
Wabash athletics photo by Howard Hewitt

The long-awaited regional rankings are here, and we can expect to see at least a couple of teams clinch their conferences and their paths to the playoffs. All that on top of another week in which we see four games between Top 25 teams — dramatically narrowing the choices of Pat, Keith and Ryan for “Most likely Top 25 team to get upset.”

But there are plenty of other categories for them to spread their wings (bird reference; we’ll circle back to that later) here in the Week 10 Triple Take predictions:

Game of the Week.
Ryan’s take: No. 16 Wittenberg at No. 13 Wabash. Playing the homer card here, because as expected, this matchup is poised to determine which red-and-white-clad “W” team gets to go to the playoffs. The Little Giants have been rolling week after week, logging three shutouts this season already. But have they been tested? Not significantly. That has made their No. 3 statistical ranking in total defense and their top spot in turnover margin seem exaggerated. But, to be sure, there has to be talent and depth to get to these numbers against any collegiate competition, so while the schedule has been favorable, Wabash’s place in the poll isn’t necessarily unjustified. Wittenberg is a bit in the same boat, though the Tigers can boast having faced at least one very solid team in Butler, a nonscholarship Division I-FCS squad that beat the Tigers badly. Witt is ninth nationally in total offense, and 19th in defense. For more than a decade, this has been a marquee NCAC matchup. That doesn’t change on Saturday.
Pat’s take: No. 10 Heidelberg at No. 14 John Carroll. I’m going to say this out loud right now, and this is rare for me — this is a matchup I think the AFCA poll has right and we don’t. They have John Carroll ranked higher than Heidelberg. Although this requires a leap of faith to do so, I agree with them.
Keith’s take: No. 4 North Central at No. 19 Wheaton. Guess that leaves me this game. Honestly, I’d have taken the ‘Berg at John Carroll, but it’s Week 10 and I wrote down 25 games of interest in my pre-Triple Take exercise. There’s GOTW candidates everywhere. The weird thing about this one is, in light of North Central’s 46-17 win over Illinois Wesleyan, and the Titans’ 30-19 win over Wheaton, the Thunder are 40 points down in the three-way tiebreaker formula. But with a win, they can stay in the Pool C picture — which in my opinion is currently Heidelberg/John Carroll winner, UW-Platteville/UW-Oshkosh winner, Wittenberg/Wabash loser, Pacific Lutheran, Concordia-Moorhead (which faces St. Thomas this week), Illinois Wesleyan and the fourth Pool B team. For five spots. Wheaton would need to slow down NCC QB Spencer Stanek and the nation’s fifth-best offense (527.8 yards/game). The Cardinals’ balance (NCC rushes for 251 and passes for 276.8/game) will make it next to impossible.

Surprisingly close game.
Ryan’s take: Case Western Reserve at Washington University. Both teams have had moments of epic floundering this fall, while both have also showed signs of brilliance. As a few prominent Pool B teams picked up extra losses recently, Washington could be on the bubble of a playoff spot, especially if their only two losses remain those to undefeated UW-Whitewater and to two-loss Coe. The Bears have a lot to play for, and previous seasons have consistently shown their game against the Spartans to be a defensive struggle.
Pat’s take: Randolph-Macon at Bridgewater. The Eagles snapped a four-game losing streak, one that was pretty ugly, last week. With archrival Hampden-Sydney looming next week, perhaps Randolph-Macon is vulnerable here, and perhaps Bridgewater is going to play like the conference favorite we somehow thought they would be. (Although the conference coaches’ poll had them just three points out of first as well.)
Keith’s take: Franklin & Marshall at Johns Hopkins. This will be surprisingly close on the national scene, but those who closely follow the Centennial Conference remember that the Diplomats won this game in a similar situation last season, and Johns Hopkins still went on to win a first-round playoff game, 42-10. The Blue Jays are 8-0 and dominant offensively — No. 4 nationally at 529 yards a game, including 271 rushing. They’re also a top 25 defensive outfit in several categories, and they’re home at Homewood. So why F&M? It’s scored 35 or more four out of five weeks, it allows less than 50% of third downs to convert and knowing they’ve beaten the Blue Jays recently, they won’t be overwhelmed by the magnitude of the game.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset.
Ryan’s take: No. 24 Ithaca. Prior to last week, the Bombers had been the only Empire 8 team to have beaten Salisbury since the Gulls entered the conference. Both teams have a playoff spot that they are struggling for — meaning everything is on the line here.
Pat’s take: No. 18 St. Thomas. This is just a bookkeeping upset, really. I think there are some voters who have St. Thomas still ranked highly anticipating this game and thinking the Tommies can beat the Cobbers and justify where they’re listed. As down as the Tommies have appeared this season, though, they are still just a missed kick from being 9-1 and shoot, they were in the game at Bethel a heck of a lot longer than I would have thought. I went right picking St. John’s in this spot last week and now I’m giving the other side of that rivalry the business as well, I suppose.
Keith’s take: No. 23 Millsaps. The unbeaten Majors are at home against 6-2 Centre, a team that has had wild swings of effectiveness this season. When the Colonels are on, they can put up numbers; they average 462 yards of offense a game, including 190 on the ground. RB Harry Meisner will have quite a task in upstaging Millsaps RB Mike Barthelmy. An upset, however, would set off a race between the Colonels team bus or flight back to Kentucky, and all the thank-you letters coming in from Framingham, Mass., Dover, Del. and other hometowns of teams on the Pool B fringe.

They’ll be on your radar.
Ryan’s take: Moravian. In case you missed Around the Mid-Atlantic this week, Moravian has sloughed off a 12-game slide and now has won two in a row, with Juniata (also the subject of an ATMA column earlier this season) on tap. A win here for the Greyhounds could breathe new life and momentum into their Week 11 rivalry game at Muhlenberg.
Pat’s take: St. Scholastica. That’s if they can deal with the 10-hour bus ride to Greenville, that is. This is a winner-take-all game for the UMAC and while it would be further off most people’s radar to take Greenville, I like the Saints here.
Keith’s take: Texas Lutheran. The Bulldogs, on the heels of their win over Lousiana College, are a lock for a Pool B playoff spot if they finish the season with wins over Hardin-Simmons and Howard Payne. Saturday’s game against the Cowboys is a lock for 900 yards and 90 points between the teams. QB Brent Peavy going against the HSU defense (235th-best in scoring, allowing 45.5 points/game) could mean those are distributed 60-30, and 600 yards to 300. But I’ll have it on my radar in case it gets in 47-43, 470-yards to 430 territory. The Cowboys average 445 yards and 39 points themselves, but could be demoralized after a 63-7 loss to No. 3 UMHB was followed by a loss to previously winless Sul Ross State.

Which team will clinch a playoff spot this weekend?
Ryan’s take: Gallaudet. The 8-0 team has already beaten the second- and third-best teams in the ECFC. For a school that dropped its team to club in the ’90s and slowly returned it to collegiate form, history will be made when the Bison clinch Saturday afternoon.
Pat’s take: Franklin. Such are the days of the Grizzlies’ lives. It’s only because Rose-Hulman hasn’t lost any other conference games since losing to Franklin. The Grizzlies are an immovable force, at least within the HCAC.
Keith’s take: UW-Whitewater. Too bad Ryan mentions St. Lawrence-Hobart below, I wanted to make reference to the ‘bart stars here. I’ll go with the sixth-ranked Warhawks, who will be able to pound the rock against a game UW-Stevens Point team that has already faced No. 4 North Central, No. 8 UW-Oshkosh and No. 11 UW-Platteville, which it only lost to by one point. The UW-W title was no forgone conclusion as the season kicked off, but as it stands, the WIAC title might not be the last it wins.

Which regionally ranked team will see its fortunes change?
Ryan’s take: St. Lawrence, No. 10 in the East. Only because the Saints will be getting bounced out of the regional rankings after this week’s game against Hobart. A close game won’t help them. A loss, and they’re gone.
Pat’s take: Washington U., No. 8 in the South. The Bears have been banged up at running back and have been just squeaking by. Nearly losing to Macalester makes it difficult for me to like their chances vs. Case.
Keith’s take: Hope, No. 10 in the North. There’s more than regional rankings to worry about in Holland, Mich., but Flying Dutchmen can gain a lot of ground during their Week 10 bye. For starters, MIAA leader Albion (4-0, 6-2) travels to Adrian (3-2, 6-3), and a not-that-unlikely-upset won’t change the status of the Week 11 Hope-Albion clash — but it could soften the Britons up before the Flying Dutchmen get their crack. Also, in the North, regionally ranked teams face off in the NCAC, OAC and CCIW, so a slide up the NCAA’s rankings by next Wednesday is possible as well.

This one’s for the birds.
Ryan’s take: The Hawks of Huntingdon. The Hawks finish out their season with two of their toughest conference matchups — Methodist and Maryville. Win out, and Huntingdon will be in the playoffs in just its first year in the USA South. But I’m not sure Huntingdon can pull it off. A win this weekend is a sound bet; a win in Week 11 isn’t something I’d put my money on.
Pat’s take: The Blue Jays of Johns Hopkins. That’s where they’ll be clinching the Centennial Conference automatic bid to the playoffs for the fourth time in five season.
Keith’s take: The Cardinals of Wesleyan. Amherst-Williams is known as the littlest big game in America, but it’s not even the biggest in the NESCAC this week. The Cardinals, a one-win team as recently as 2008, aim to finish off their first 8-0 season since 1969. Wesleyan is already Little Three champs, having beaten Amherst and Williams, but their rival a half-hour down I-91 (or the Connecticut River, for those inclined) is the thing that stands in the way of perfection. And to make it better, Trinity has been the NESCAC power for a decade. It hasn’t lost more than two games in a season since 2001, but after a 5-0 start lost close ones to Middlebury and Amherst. The game is in Hartford, and Wesleyan allows 239 yards a game, with nobody scoring more than 14 on them this season. The chance is there to cap perfection by smothering a geographic rival and conference powerhouse on its own field.

ATN podcast: The surprise unbeatens, winless and more

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It could take a while for Chapman to be seen as a real Top 25 candidate.
Chapman athletics photo

Subscribe to the Around the Nation Podcast in iTunes.

North Park was one of the biggest stories on Saturday night, but there were plenty of other surprises of a different kind. Not teams that broke long streaks or look like they might soon, but some surprise unbeaten teams. That’s teams such as Hartwick, Gallaudet, Olivet, Greenville, Millsaps, Lake Forest, Pacific and others listed in the tags at the bottom of the page. None of those are in the Top 25, and most fans understand why, but if you don’t, we’ll discuss why, whether those teams have a shot to do so and what it would take for voters to do so. (Gallaudet portion transcribed in the comments section.)

Plus the ODAC got more ODACky, the USA South did its thing, sort of, the NESCAC is far enough along for us to talk about and more.

The Around the Nation podcast is our weekly discussion of what went down and what’s about to happen.

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The tags below include the schools we talked about. Also, we’re bringing back your first look at the Postgame Show, with your D3reports and team interviews and highlight packages: