Triple Take: Going down the rabbit hole

From a huge rivalry game to a couple of stellar Top 25 matchups, there’s no shortage of things to keep an eye on this week among Division III’s elite.

But if you read our Around the Region columns and listen to the ATN Podcast, you already know how deep the rabbit hole goes with all the stories, teams and players that make up small-college football. There so much more going on than what will fit in this Triple Take space, but Pat Coleman (@d3football), Keith McMillan (@D3Keith) and Ryan Tipps (@NewsTipps) break down the week ahead and some of the games that are on our radars.

Game of the Week.
Ryan’s take: No. 5 Wesley at No. 4 Mary Hardin-Baylor.
Two Top 5 teams. Perennial deep playoff runs. History of great clashes. New UMHB stadium. New Crusader starting quarterback. Wolverines coming off hail mary win. Saturday under the lights. Pick your reason why this game will be exciting. There’s no wrong answer.
Keith’s take: No. 5 Wesley at No. 4 Mary Hardin-Baylor. Given that I already wrote about that here though, perhaps some fresh thoughts on No. 22 Cal Lutheran at No. 3 Linfield will suffice? Pacific Lutheran rushed for 234 yards against CLU last week, and Linfield ran for nearly 300 against Hardin-Simmons, including more than 150 from quarterbacks. The Kingsmen, tied at 24, couldn’t get off the field during PLU’s game-winning drive. Linfield might keep it on the ground at key times and eke out yet another win over its class-of-the-West-Coast rival.
Pat’s take: No. 5 Wesley at No. 4 Mary Hardin-Baylor. Normally we try not to repeat games but let’s be honest, this is it. Once upon a time the Tommie-Johnnie game could have measured up or Linfield-Cal Lutheran, but not this year.

Surprisingly close game.
Ryan’s take: Sul Ross State at Trinity.
It’s a bit hard to get a handle on the Lobos since they have yet to take the field against a D-III opponent. Their ability to get a rushing game going against the Tigers’ mid-range run defense will be the key to Sul Ross getting points on the board and staying in this one.
Keith’s take: Louisiana College at Huntingdon. If it was billed as top-level ASC team against team picked to finish middle of USAC, it might sound like it won’t be close, but this will be. The Wildcats and Hawks are each off to very good starts (Huntingdon won 35-7 at ASC member Mississippi College on Sept. 14, and LC has two wins over NAIA teams). The Wildcats dominated Webber International statistically last week, but needed to cap a 16-play drive with the game-winning touchdown with 29 seconds left, partially because 12 penalties for 171 yards set them back. Huntingdon had eight penalties of its own, and completed just 15 passes last week, so unless both teams clean up their acts, the game could stay close because both sides’ miscues keep the other in it.
Pat’s take: Redlands at No. 11 Pacific Lutheran. This game will not be as far apart as a game between a near-Top 10 team and a team not quite receiving votes would expect to be. Both teams have been tested early, and Redlands could well be up to the task.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset.
Ryan’s take: No. 23 Baldwin Wallace.
I could see the Yellow Jackets’ game against John Carroll coming down to which offense has the ball last. Both teams put up some wild offensive stats in their first games, and Baldwin Wallace has the most to lose as the team surely has its eyes on a conference prize if Mount Union shows any bit of vulnerability in the next few weeks.
Keith’s take: No major upsets. Wesley and Cal Lutheran won’t count as upsets if they lose to higher-ranked top-25 teams. I’m intrigued by Redlands at No. 11 Pacific Lutheran, Albright hosting No. 21 Delaware Valley and the two top-25 games involving OAC teams, but I wouldn’t pick them in writing.
Pat’s take: No. 21 Delaware Valley. You’d have to believe that Albright is gong to come out more than a little fired up and focused after losing to Stevenson last week and putting the Mustangs … say, on the radar. Albright might not win the MAC this season, but they’re talented enough to knock off a contender, especially one coming to Reading.

They’ll be on your radar.
Ryan’s take: Stevenson.
The Mustangs are carrying a solid opening set into this Friday night matchup against FDU-Florham. I’ll be interested to see how well they can hang onto the ball after Florham showed last week that it likes to pressure teams into making turnovers. The Devils edged out TCNJ in a low-scoring game thanks primarily to forcing five of them. Stevenson, in only its third year, could prove this week and in the next couple that it is a team ready to contend.
Keith’s take: Ohio Wesleyan. Two of last year’s surprise teams, not just in the NCAC but nationally, meet this week when Kenyon hosts the Battling Bishops. OWU would seem to have the edge, with a week off since its season-opening win over Bluffton and the Lords coming off a 25-15 loss at Earlham in which they gained only 221 yards. With both teams playing Wabash and Wittenberg this season, I’m looking for something to indicate whether QB Mason Espinosa and OWU will be a contender for a conference title. Hey, let’s keep it in the NCAC …
Pat’s take: Hiram. No, seriously. Readers of Kickoff know why I say so — they have a transfer quarterback who played at Notre Dame … even if it is the Division II school in Ohio. Rob Partridge is listed as a freshman in the Terriers’ stats, but don’t let that fool you: He’s actually a senior. And with that experience, he’s going to have Hiram in a lot more games than it would have been in last year. If he plays, that is, since he didn’t finish last week’s game at Denison.

Which 0-2 team will earn its first win?
Ryan’s take: Kean.
While the final score last week appears to have been a thorough beating at the hands of Mary Hardin-Baylor, it belies the closeness of the matchup at halftime, when UMHB had just a 3-0 lead. The Crusaders, of course, made adjustments under center and elsewhere, and took off from there, but the fact that Kean was able to hang with such a good team for such a long time and force a couple of turnovers has to give them confidence going up against Endicott this week.
Keith’s take: Salisbury. The Gulls might take the frustration of losing to two top-25 teams by a total of 10 points out on N.C. Wesleyan. It’s a new season and all, and a fresh coaching staff for the (other) Battling Bishops, but Salisbury won 69-6 at home last year.
Pat’s take: Susqhenanna. In a matchup of 0-2 teams, I take Susquehanna over Dickinson. It’s puzzling how poorly Dickinson has been playing so far this season, while Susquehanna has at least looked decent in one game, at Merchant Marine in the season opener.

Which team is far topping your expectations?
Ryan’s take: Juniata.
You have to go back at least a decade to find a season in which the Eagles have started 2-0. And while coach and Juniata grad Tim Launtz showed last season, in his sophomore year at the helm, that he is serious about turning the team around, he’s following through with that goal splendidly this fall. The next couple weeks could be bumpy for Juniata, with Gettysburg this week then Franklin and Marshall and Johns Hopkins, but there’s a lot for these players to be happy about. Junior quarterback Ward Udinski has 634 passing yards in just two games, with more than 100 yards rushing. This is a team that could sneak up on some of the top teams in the conference if they let their guard down.
Keith’s take: Olivet. I listed a handful of mildly surprising 2-0 teams in Off the Beaten Path, and the Comets get more acknowledgement here not just for winning at Wilmington and then beating Wisconsin Lutheran so far. It’s that there’s no reason it should stop. This week’s opponent, Rockford, is 0-2 and 2-30 since the start of the 2010 season, and 0-2 North Park and 0-2 Alma follow.
Pat’s take: Emory and Henry. So far, at least. Not just beating Ferrum, but crushing them, and then beating Maryville as well. Even though the ODAC has generally owned the USA South in recent years, that’s a convincing butt-kicking of the Panthers. And even though E&H generally beats Ferrum soundly in Emory, it’s still a bit of a surprise to me because I was thinking E&H was on a bit of a downslide.

Color me red.
Ryan’s take: Olivet.
This is another one of those teams that could fall under “far topping my expectations,” but since their uniforms are Scarlet, I get an opportunity to talk about them in this category instead. The Comets have already notched their best season in years. And with Rockford and North Park over the next two weeks before MIAA play begins, it’s no stretch to think Olivet could be 4-0 and looking to rattle some conference cages behind Braden Black at quarterback and his go-to receiver, Dan Hugan. The weakness in their armor, though, is the pass defense (statistically 211th in Division III), which will need to improve if Olivet hopes to take this success to the next level.
Keith’s take: Bates. Hey Ryan, my bad for using Olivet, didn’t know you’d be shooting stars down here when I wrote that. (See what I did there?) Maybe I should have given 2-0 Hope some love instead. The good folks in Michigan will appreciate the Olivet nods, but anyway, Bates … So yeah, the NESCAC gets underway this week, and the Bobcats get conference favorite Trinity right off the bat. I’m responsible for a portion of the Bantams’ also receiving votes in the top 25, so I’m not picking Bates so much as I’m watching to see signs that last year’s 5-3 season was no fluke. Jeff Hetzel and Damon Hatheway were high on Bates in Kickoff, and assuming that quarterback battle is settled, we’ll get an indication of whether that 6-2 prediction could be on the money.
Pat’s take: UW-River Falls. After a close loss to St. John’s and a non-embarrassing loss to No. 2 St. Thomas, it’s time for UW-River Falls to hit the road. While that involves something different than the first two games at home did, I think River Falls will be just a bit on the rise this season.

Triple Take: First onto the field

It’s easy to feel a little envious of Division I schools – they got their season underway last weekend, and we’ve had to bide our time an extra week.

But now, the wait is over.

Division III football is up to 244 teams this fall, which means we will get to enjoy hundreds of games over the next 11 weeks, with dozens going on each Saturday.

If you haven’t signed up for Kickoff 2013 already, please do so. It’s D3football.com’s preseason publication and is a great way to get introduced to the many things happening this year in Division III football. It has a slew of feature stories as well as rankings and interviews with coaches from every team in the nation.

D3football.com also brings you regional and national columns throughout the season, and every Friday morning, you’ll be able to dive into the column you’re reading right now, called Triple Take.

In Triple Take, Executive Editor and Publisher Pat Coleman, Managing Editor and National Columnist Keith McMillan and Senior Editor and former Mid-Atlantic Columnist Ryan Tipps break down some of the week’s biggest games, sleeper teams and those who we’re keeping an especially close eye on. From now until the Stagg Bowl, we’ll take you well beyond the Top 25.

We open up Triple Take to comments in the section below, or feel free to take the conversation to Twitter using the hashtag #3take. Don’t forget to follow us on Twitter: Pat (@d3football), Keith (@D3Keith) and Ryan (@NewsTipps).

Game of the week.
Ryan’s take: No. 20 Widener at No. 5 Wesley.
In Kickoff 2013, I foreshadowed a dropoff from Widener coming off an 11-win season. Here’s the chance for the Pride to prove me wrong. Their challenges stem from some rebuilding spots on offense (quarterback and offensive line), and a new head coach who has yet to get his feet wet leading this team on game day. Wesley is not without its own question marks, but the Wolverines are a team that reloads more often than it rebuilds –- and is prime position to start moving hard into the season.
Keith’s take: No. 20 Widener at No. 5 Wesley would have been my pick, but Ryan generously starts the blog post each week and gets first dibs. So even though there’s plenty of intrigue about what kind of team Widener will be, we can stay within a 75-mile radius of Philadelphia and pull in another monster matchup with top 25 implications. Rowan at Delaware Valley pits a pair of three-loss teams last season (although the Profs picked up their third in the playoffs) with the majority of their outstanding defenses back. The Aggies have seven starters from the No. 9 unit in the country and the Profs eight from No. 42. Rowan turns to Paul Hammersma at quarterback and would seem to have the greater struggle to score points, but if the Profs’ D slows QB Aaron Wilmer and Del Val, we’ll have a great game that could be the springboard to someone’s big season.
Pat’s take: No. 19 Franklin at No. 1 Mount Union. It’s the head coaching debut of Vince Kehres and we’re going to learn a lot. A couple of key pieces return on offense,  but after his arrest this week in an off-campus incident, Roman Namdar might not be making his debut at wide receiver. But I’d have to think that Kevin Burke at quarterback and Germany Woods at running back should have enough firepower on offense to make this an entertaining game, regardless of the experience of the offensive line.

Surprisingly close game.
Ryan’s take: Washington and Jefferson at Wooster.
The Scots tend to play up, and on paper, W&J is on a level above Wooster. If the Scots can establish a run game and make the Presidents give up some yards, there’s certainly a good opportunity to keep this game within seven to 10 points.
Keith’s take: UW-Eau Claire at No. 2 St. Thomas. Springfield and Western New England are surprisingly close geographically, as the Empire 8 and NEFC teams are in the same Massachusetts city. And that could be a good game. But I went Blugolds and Tommies because there’s a reason Glenn Caruso schedules that game for his MIAC powerhouse. He knows the middle-of-the-WIAC Blugolds will take on anyone and give his team a good Week 1 test, regardless of the final score.
Pat’s take (filed before Thursday’s game): Loras at No. 22 Elmhurst. This isn’t your older brother’s Bluejays team, nor is it Josh Williams’ older brother’s Bluejays team. We might not see all the effects of Elmhurst losing a great senior class and a head coach, but I’m not sure they’ll dominate Loras the way they should.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset.
Ryan’s take: No. 16 Salisbury.
It’s been a few years since Christopher Newport played “spoiler” to the Top 25, but these recent seasons have also seen the Captains beset by a ridiculous amount of injury, which has ended any season momentum before it even starts. There’s a lot to be excited about with this CNU team, starting with the return of quarterback Lyndon Gardner, who was hurt for a good chunk of 2012. In turn, Salisbury is missing a few key pieces that will take some time to sort out, so the Captains could get the kind of win they haven’t seen since the turn of the decade.
Keith’s take: No. 24 St. John Fisher. This Cardinal-on-Cardinal action probably should have been my pick below for where a bird team is going to bite it, since I’d be guaranteed to be right. But SJFC’s trip to Otterbein — 16 starters back from last year’s 8-2 team — could mean a short stay in the top 25 for the Cardinals. Yes, those Cardinals.
Pat’s take: No. 17 Johns Hopkins. I mean, I don’t think Wittenberg losing to Butler would be an upset, although I certainly hope the Tigers can come away with a win against non-scholarship Butler. It’s hard to know what to make of Randolph-Macon or anyone in the ODAC this year, but I give the Yellow Jackets a shot.

They’ll be on your radar.
Ryan’s take: Case Western Reserve.
Even their losses last fall were tight because of how well the defense was able to keep the Spartans in their games. Well, consider most of that asset gone. Now, Case has to rely on its offense to provide a cushion when it can and to follow through and win games. The team is not going to do that until it can anoint a single quarterback that the team can rally around. There’s some dicey matchups midway through the schedule for this to remain a question mark for too long.
Keith’s take: Hardin-Simmons. Well it’s Week 1. Darn near everybody is on “Hmm, I’m curious about them” status. Fresh programs Southwestern, Hendrix and Berry all play their first games at home. But forced to choose, HSU and No. 11 UW-Platteville are two non-playoff teams that could go a long way this year. Since the Cowboys have their opener in Oregon, against sometimes-pretty-good Willamette, they’re the most intriguing watch of the week.
Pat’s take: Lewis and Clark. And if for no other reason than the fact that the Pioneers are off the west coast and into a part of the country where those of you who don’t stay up for the late games might learn something about them. It will be a Pioneering winner, for sure, whether that’s L&C or Utica.

Which 2012 playoff team is going to end up wishing it had a Week 1 bye?
Ryan’s take: St. Scholastica.
Sure the Saints should be able to stand up to the competition in the UMAC and claim another conference championship, but Whitworth’s defense will again be there to snuff out any spark early on in the opener.
Keith’s take: Framingham State. I don’t think they’ll wish they had a bye, necessarily, but they might lose at Endicott. The Gulls won this game 34-7 last season, but the Rams played Salve Regina in the NEFC title game and advanced to the playoffs. I think Framingham State would be eager for another crack at Endicott, so maybe they don’t fit perfectly in this category, but if I couldn’t squeeze them in here, I wouldn’t have mentioned the game at all. Melikke van Alstyne has made a name for himself in the Rams’ backfield, and he’s got four of his offensive line starters back.
Pat’s take: Concordia-Chicago. An extra week of practice would probably suit this program just fine — they lost more than 50 players and the head coach from last year and came into training camp with a depth chart in extreme flux. Lake Forest and the Cougars had a great showdown last year but it won’t be repeated.

Which bird will get bested?
Ryan’s take: The Falcons of Concordia (Wis.).
Concordia has a lot of things going well for it, including a solid group of returning players, to put the team in a prime position to compete for the top spot in the NACC. Hopes are high, and the expectations are not unreasonable. However, opponent Augsburg is a tough one right out of the gate. The Auggies, by their own right, are a team that’s been steadily improving its stock year to year – and they play in a conference against the toughest schools in Minnesota. This game will be good — better than the one last year –- but the Falcons are going to have to have to wait till next week to put one in the win column.
Keith’s take: The Seahawks of Salve Regina. I’ll have you know I put 14 games on my “to watch” list, and there were Golden Bears and Beavers and Boxers and Bulldogs and Engineers and Cowboys and Saints and Soup Bowls and Backyard Brawls. But darned if I didn’t have to get to the last game to get a bird team. By the way, Bridgewater State, our pick in Kickoff to win the MASCAC, has eight starters back on offense. Salve has all-American Phil Terio on defense, but lost five key starters and defensive-minded coach Bob Chesney.
Pat’s take: The Eagles of Northwestern (Minn.). Not sure how good a year to expect out of St. Olaf but Northwestern is breaking in a new quarterback for the first time in a few years while the Oles are breaking in a new head coach.

Which long losing streak is likely to end?
Ryan’s take: Hartwick.
Certainly not the longest of down streaks to be riding, but the seven-game skid after opening 2012 with three wins had to have been disappointing for the Hawks. But that’s not terribly far removed from the results of the past few seasons, since Jason Boltus quarterbacked the team back in 2008. Last fall, Hartwick crushed Husson in the season opener 55-14. There’s no reason to think they aren’t motivated to repeat the feat on Saturday.
Keith’s take: McDaniel. Catholic and Western Maryland used to be one of the games of the year back in the days when I wrote the Around the Mid-Atlantic column. Now it’s the game where I pick the Green Terror, which has lost 12 in a row but outdid Stevenson in a scrimmage and has star running back Joe Rollins prepped for a big final season, to break a losing streak. Go figure. Simple Daddy, don’t you know that things move in cycles?
Pat’s take: Maine Maritime. Thirteen losses in a row is a huge comedown for a team that was competitive in a 2009 playoff game at Montclair State. The Mariners losing to Anna Maria to start last season was a bit of a shocker and surely Maine Maritime is eager to not let that happen again.

ATN Podcast: What they got right

Mickey Inns
Linfield has gone 9-0 with Mickey Inns at quarterback this season.
Photo by Rusty Rae

Usually we have some complaints about the bracket, so much so that there’s a category in the annual predictions column asking what the committee blew.

It’s not so much this time. There are a couple things that would have been better if fixed, and we’ll touch on those, but it’s not a deal-breaker. Unless, say, you’re Hobart.

Pat Coleman and Keith McMillan run down the brackets, give their surprises, look at some of the great matchups potentially ahead in the second and third weekends and have just a word of warning for UW-Whitewater fans. That and much more in this week’s Around the Nation Podcast. Scroll to the bottom and read the tags to see which teams are mentioned in this week’s show.

[display_podcast]

You can also get this and any of our future Around the Nation podcasts automatically by subscribing to this RSS feed: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3football/?feed=podcast

Plus, here’s this week’s D3football.com reports. Keith checks in from Randolph-Macon, Ryan Tipps from Wabash-DePauw and more.