Hoopsville Classic: Dave’s take on the teams

Not that often in Division III do we get a chance to see a number of different teams in the same gymnasium in the course of one weekend – outside of the NCAA Tournament. This past weekend the Hoopsville National Invitational Classic gave many of us the chance to not only see eight very different programs each play two games, we got to see three ranked teams and a fourth who should be play against one another.

So with that in mind, I thought I would give you my take on the weekend. Not how the weekend went, but the teams that took part and I have ranked them from bottom to top.

Franciscan – I hate to say anyone was the worst team over the weekend, so I won’t. However, Franciscan was one of two teams that came out of the Hoopsville Classic 0-2. But to be fair, the Barons shouldn’t hang their heads… this was a good test for what is practically a brand new program. Don’t forget that Franciscan only returned three players from last year’s 0-25 squad – that means there isn’t much memory of it. They are made up of mainly freshmen and sophomores who have plenty of talent and will only improve with more playing time and experience especially when they test themselves to tough competition like they saw at Stevenson University and beforehand with Bethany (W.Va.). And while the Barons lost their games to Stevenson and Gallaudet by an average of 14-plus points, they were playing with at least four players not eligible until Dec. 15 including two players that could jump-start their offense. Coach John Lamanna has a good squad and as soon as he and the team get more of a base to their program, they will succeed.

Gallaudet – It is tough for any program to expect to succeed after a major coaching change in the offseason and losing plenty of talent that had provided the best seasons in program history, but Gallaudet has been here before. They seem to always be in this place. After all, the deaf institution already has the disadvantage of a narrower recruiting field then most schools. However, the Bison often seem to find talent who turn coaches’ heads when they seem them play (anyone remember Ronda Jo Miller?). This year Gallaudet has a couple of players we could be talking about down the road: Danny Kelly (listed as a center but can play guard), Layton Seeber, Jocus Houston, and Orion Palmer just to name a few. They along with two of their teammates scored in double-figures in their game against Franciscan – but that is the offense. On defense, I have always been impressed with the discipline especially in a zone look. This weekend the Bison once again showed they will hold high-scoring squads below their average with smart defense which causes turnovers and forces bad shots. The challenge for the Bison will be the fact that Seeber, Kelly, and Houston are seniors and the squad does have a new coach Brendan Stern who certainly is familiar with the program, but still has to get used to coaching this squad. Gallaudet may have never been to the NCAA tournament, but they have a squad that could contend for a conference title and maybe get that automatic bid this season.

Mass-Boston – Talk about a sleeper in the Little East Conference. I am not saying they are going to win the conference with the likes of Western Connecticut, Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island College and Keene State leading the way, but they are going to spoil many a team’s day and be in the mix. Last season’s LEC Rookie of the Year Vinny DeLucia is averaging 11 points a game, but Coach Titus thinks the team’s best player won’t play until the second half of the season. And this Beacons team already has a wealth of talent besides DeLucia. Rahshjeem Benson, Carl Joseph, Jahleel Moise, and Brian Clarke have all started the season strong along with Mike Mitchell and Josh Mojica, but the team needs to mature a bit more. They had a chance to win the game against Stevenson if one player whose basket at the end cut the deficit to one with 1.4 on the clock decided to find his man defensively first and not pound his chest after a half-dunk. His man got the in-bounded ball and had to be fouled before the clock ran out.

This squad has just two seniors. Don’t be surprised if they are playing spoiler this year and maybe battling for a conference title next season.

Stevenson – The host school certainly represented themselves well winning their two games against Gallaudet and Mass-Boston and starting 2-0 for the first time since 2005.

This Mustangs squad certainly has talent. Their center is a 6-6 senior named Andrew Bishop who helped spark comebacks several times over the weekend. You aren’t overly impressed with his presence inside, but certainly appreciate his drive and abilities when he comes up with big shots and solid defense. You then have Brett Burrier who is a 6-6 senior forward who is the perfect three-man who can not only hit shots inside, but can step back and hit big three point shots when needed. And that still leaves guys like Kelly Davis and Stefon McCray who are both juniors and are contributing on both ends of the court.

Now, while the Mustangs started the season 2-0, they are playing in the MAC Commonwealth for the first time and that will mean tough competition from the likes of Messiah, Widener, Lebanon Valley, Elizabethtown, Albright, Alvernia and others. While I don’t see Stevenson fighting for a conference title this year, Stewart at least has his squad moving in the right direction as he starts his second season.

Randolph-Macon – this is where things will be odd to say the least… I have the Yellow Jackets as the fourth best squad of the weekend and despite starting the season 0-3… they are arguably a Top 25 team. I can already imagine some of you saying “WHAT?!” The answer is yes because they have tons of talent which will once again put them right into the mix in the always tough ODAC which I could see on paper getting four teams into the NCAA tournament this season.

It isn’t like RMC got all that easy a start to the season with a loss on the road to Christopher Newport (getting votes in the Top 25) on Thursday and then having to play No. 16 Transylvania on Saturday and No. 19 St. Mary’s on Sunday. In none of those games was RMC beaten by a more talented team… they were beaten mainly by themselves. In the first three games they have averaged 18 turnovers – nearly four more than their opponents; the Yellow Jackets are shooting .558 from the free throw line; are a paltry 19-70 from the three-point line; are being out rebounded by nearly two boards a game; and are being outscored by 17 in the second half of their games. But ask many of the coaches at the Hoopsville National Invitational Classic and they will say Randolph-Macon probably had the most talent of any of the teams there.

So they may fall out of the Top 25 after this start, but they will be back in the poll later this season.

St. Mary’s (Md.) – The Seahawks are always ready for the start of the season and Coach Harney always has them playing tough opponents, but St. Mary’s didn’t look completely ready to start the season. Their first game featured a big lead to start, only to then have Catholic go on a 43-13 run and nearly run the Seahawks out of the building.

St. Mary’s has a lot of talent, but they are still finding themselves. This is probably a different squad if Chris McAuley didn’t have aspirations to play in Division I and left over the summer to pursue them. Instead the Seahawks have to, well, MacGyver what they can in the post with MacGyver Biniak. Biniak is a good player, but the usual double-teams down low on Seahawks post players the last few seasons won’t happen and that means less guys open on the perimeter including senior forward Jeff Haus who has made a killing on the weak side when his player sags in to help in the post.

Team leader Devin Spencer doesn’t seem to be the same player as in years past and James Davenport may be back after he was lost for an entire season due to injury, but he looks like he has lost a season. The bright spot for the Seahawks will be Nick LaGuerre who as a sophomore is already leading the team in scoring. He will take some pressure off of Spencer in both ball handling and shooting and steps up the defense.

St. Mary’s will once again battle for a CAC title and another NCAA tournament berth, but how good they will be this year will depend on whether they don’t rest on their laurels and find a way to adjust what has worked in the past and find what will instead work this season.

Transylvania – The Pioneers did not start the season they way they had hoped. In fact, before Saturday’s game against Randolph-Macon, Transylvania had lost three in a row dating to last season. Catholic simply made the Pioneers look pedestrian on Friday night, but they fought back to beat a scrambling RMC squad on Saturday. However, they are clearly missing their floor general, Tate Cox.

Last season, Cox averaged nine points a game and had a turnover to assist margin of 1.6 to 1 on a squad that lead the nation in the least number of turnovers. Flash forward to this season and the team’s 10.1 turnovers per game from 2011 has blossomed to 14.7 and only in the game against RMC did they have less turnovers than their opponent (RMC had 22). Cox brings a level of confidence and calm on the offensive end this Transylvania team needs, despite the best efforts of Nick Fudge. However, when Cox returns from injury is mainly up to him.

It isn’t to say that Transylvania’s problems are only because they miss Cox on the floor. Ethan Spurlin is banged up and Brandon Rash has struggled this season – despite a very good game against St. Mary’s. They have some young talent like Parker Stansberry who will contribute, but they need others to step up. Coach Brian Lane has already said this is the team’s team… especially the seniors. He is a good coach that can make good adjustments, but the onus is on the seniors to prove they deserve to be recognized in the Top 25.

Personally, they are a Top 25 team with plenty of talent that probably has to get used to missing the two players who graduated from last year’s squad. While Chris Owen and Ashley Hatfield may not have garnered the attention for their production on the court, their leadership off the court clearly is missed and now Spurlin, Rash, Cox and others have to step up into that role and when they do, the Pioneers could be tough to stop.

Catholic – Almost every coach, assistant coach, or fan who watched Catholic play this past weekend pretty much said one thing, “these guys are GOOD!” Tough to argue with that.

I will admit I had the Cardinals in my Top 40 as I worked on my preseason Top 25 ballot… but I had too many question marks to place them in what was my last version of my ballot (there were many versions some of which Catholic did appear in the 20-25 range). The biggest was the fact Catholic, which even coach Steve Howes has admitted, kept falling short of expectations. Whether it was a stretch in the middle of conference play or simply not winning games they should have, the Cardinals have been somewhat disappointing for several seasons in a row – they haven’t made the NCAA tournament since 2007! Would they finally get over the hump? The other question was whether losing sophomore guard Billy Donovan who was coming along nicely as a player with the likes of Shawn Holmes, Nate Koenig, and Chris Kearney would once again leave Catholic with a disappointing season. The answer to both: no.

Catholic is going to be a tough opponent in the Mid-Atlantic and Landmark Conference this season. Shawn Holmes could be an All-American candidate along with Kearney who both left the weekend averaging nearly 20 points a game – against Top 25 teams! Defensively the Cardinals held Transylvania and St. Mary’s to an average of 46.5 points and forced 35 total turnovers (Catholic had just 14 turnovers).

I actually reserved my judgment of the Cardinals after the Transylvania game to see how they did against St. Mary’s. It wasn’t as if the Seahawks weren’t paying attention; their assistant coaches were in the stands scouting on Friday night and early in their game Saturday it looked like St. Mary’s was going to leave Catholic 1-1 for the weekend. But just like in the game against Transylvania, the Cardinals all of sudden hit some kind of switch on offense and defense and before anyone knew it a ten point deficit was gone and then shortly afterward they were up 10 points.

Catholic deserves to be in the Top 25… and deserved to have been there in the preseason. They have too much talent that seems to have come together perfectly. Of course there are still questions remaining like if they can get through the Landmark without going through another spell of bad losses and fighting just to make the four-team playoff. However, if the Cardinals play the rest of the season the way they did at Stevenson … they are going to be a team many will look at to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament come March.

Part II: 10 questions for 2010

It’s a midseason review. It’s a rest-of-season preview. Stop – you’re both right! Actually, it’s the second part of our 10 burning questions for 2010. Here is Part I.

South: Whom would you take to win the ODAC – No. 4 Randolph-Macon, No. 6 Guilford, or the field?

Whom you take might depend on what we mean by “win the ODAC” since the Conference tournament has been unkind to favorites recently. Last year the top three seeds lost in their first tournament game and Randolph-Macon in particular has struggled, losing its tournament opener each year since 2006. This year’s Yellow Jacket squad is on a small list of undefeated teams with wins over DeSales, Wooster and Williams when each of them was ranked. They have five players scoring double-digits and leader Danny Jones is playing just 18.0 minutes per game. Guilford has the pedigree of last year’s run to the final four and Preseason All Americans Tyler Sanborn and Clay Henson who have combined for 36.7 points and 15.9 rebounds per game through Sunday. This is more than a two horse race, though. Eastern Mennonite is undefeated against Division III teams after rolling past Hampden-Sydney on Saturday. Virginia Wesleyan won the ODAC tournament last year and already beat Guilford 71-68 at home. And if you’re looking for a reason to take the field, the Marlins’ Stephen Fields gives you a great reason to do so. He leads the ODAC in scoring with 20.5 points per game.

My two cents: Guilford in the regular season and “the field” in the tournament.

Great Lakes: Who should be more worried about its slow start – John Carroll, Wooster or Hope?

Making this list is a blessing and a curse. It’s an acknowledgment of high expectations, either because of last year’s success (JCU), a talented young roster (Wooster) or a great tradition (Hope). But all three have to improve to meet those expectations. No. 7 John Carroll started 6-0 before losing four of five, including a surprising loss at home to Medaille (whom the Blue Streaks beat by 11 in last year’s NCAA tournament) and a 22-point thumping at the hooves of the Bethany Bison. Worse yet, all four loses are regional and two of them in conference. Wooster also has four loses (including one to John Carroll) but three came to Top 25 teams (add St. Thomas and Randolph-Macon). Winning one of those would’ve been nice for confidence but the Scots are doing fine in conference play at 3-0. Hope is an enigma (sound pretty philosophical, doesn’t it?) unless you have a good handle on the local NAIA teams on the schedule. If Olivet (5-6) could beat NAIA Spring Arbor at home, why didn’t Hope? The Flying Dutch are 7-4 over all with an impressive 22-point win over Wheaton (Ill.) and an early non-conference victory over archrival Calvin. Speaking of which, the Knights and Flying Dutch will meet again to start MIAA play this Wednesday, January 6.

My two cents: John Carroll since the OAC is a tougher road to hoe than the NCAC or the MIAA.

Midwest: Can the Illinois Wesleyan women run the table to the final four?

For the third straight year, the school hosting the women’s final four is also a strong contender to play for a national championship on its own floor. Hope had two cracks and fell one game short at Howard Payne in 2008 and against George Fox at Thomas More in 2009. The Titans had disappointment of their own in the 2009 tournament, seeing their season – undefeated and otherwise – end against Washington U last March. IWU exercised those ghosts in November but, given the importance of geographic proximity in the national tournament and the possibility for the Bears to pick up some loses in UAA play, Wash U. and IWU could meet again this year. IWU has the two main ingredients of recent national champions – a star player who can carry the team (Christina Solari) and a deep roster so she won’t have to do that very often. The biggest obstacle to another perfect regular season is Carthage, which is also undefeated against Division III. Circle the matchups between the Titans and Lady Reds (in Bloomington this Saturday and in Kenosha on January 30th) as the two biggest tests.

My two cents: The Titans can and they will.

West: What are George Fox’s chances to repeat?

George Fox has a strikingly similar poll position this season as it did last season. In January 2009 the Bruins were undefeated but slotted at No. 14. This year they are No. 16 with an 8-2 record and losses to Cal Lutheran (7-2) and NAIA Lewis-Clark State, which is 5-0 against NWC teams. If nothing else, this shows the respect that the pollsters have for the Bruins – 8-2 would have probably left them unranked a season ago. George Fox got off to a great start, defeating Puget Sound 65-62 in overtime on Saturday. The Loggers were picked second in the NWC preseason coaches poll. Two key pieces of last year’s championship, center and defensive anchor Kristen Shielee and national freshman of the year Sage Indendi, are gone. Six-foot-five freshman Hannah Munger is now the Bruins center, replacing Breezy Rinehart-Young in the starting lineup. Munger has 28 blocks in the last six games, which is a good sign. Indendi’s departure puts more pressure on fellow former fab frosh Keisha Gordon who has boosted her scoring output from 12.4 to 15.8 points per game so far. The Bruins aren’t the obvious pick to win the national championship, but they weren’t last year either.

My two cents: The Bruins will miss Shielee’s calming presence but don’t count them out.

Multi: Can a team from a “non-power conference” make a run to the Final Four?

Defining the power conferences in Division III is tough, so let’s use the following very rough rule of thumb – any conference that doesn’t have at least four tournament wins combined in the last three years is a non-power conference. On the women’s side, that kind of run is unlikely. The gap between the top teams in the tournament and the rest often translates into double-digit margins of victory for the former group. And the distribution of the really good teams is pretty even. As for the men, this question presumes the regional approach to bracketing continues. There have been some very surprising results in the middle of the country (Medaille over JCU; Northwestern (Minn.) over St. Norbert). But it’s tough to envision a team from the AMCC, UMAC or NathCON stringing together four consecutive big upsets. But in the East, Atlantic or Mid-Atlantic, it’s another story. Maybe the CSAC, Empire 8, Liberty League or Landmark champion gets hot at the right time and rides that all the way to Salem.

My two cents: Depends on what kind of bracket we get on the men’s side.

Happy new season!

Last night eager Americans celebrated the beginning of a new Division III basketball season by dropping a ball covered with electric lights, eating lots of finger foods and celebrating with Dick Clark. Okay, maybe I’m slightly off on my holiday celebrations. We actually toss the ball up to start play, there are no lights on it and Dick Clark is not involved (though Dickinson and Clark may be).

And we actually started the basketball season on Saturday, November 15th, well before the calendar flipped over to 2009. But if you were busy with the holidays, college football or putting snow chains on the car, maybe you’re just getting into the 2008 – 2009 season. If that’s the case, here are nine story lines to follow – one for each region with a bonus – for men’s Division III hoops in 2009.

No. 1 – Northeast: Is Amherst overrated or underrated?

The Lord Jeffs finished second in the nation last year, are one year removed from a national championship and are undefeated this season. And yet there’s a chance they won’t get a single number 1 vote in the next Top 25 poll. That’s because the Lord Jeffs only returned one starter (Brian Baskauskas) from last year’s squad. Amherst hasn’t lost yet, but did have close calls against Emmanuel (2-7) and Skidmore (5-3). Despite the history of success, questions about the Lord Jeffs may linger. With Brandeis and Williams unranked, Amherst only has one opponent currently receiving Top 25 votes, Middlebury, and they won’t play each other until the regular season finale.

No. 2 – East: How long can Ithaca stay unbeaten?

At No. 17 Ithaca has achieved its highest ranking in the eight-plus years of our Top 25. The Bombers weren’t completely off the radar to start the season. Empire 8 coaches tabbed them as the conference’s preseason favorite. They’ve already won at Rochester and on the long, snowy road trip to St. Lawrence. Around the Nation talked with Coach Mullins and Company about Ithaca’s best start since 1941. Could the Bombers duplicate conference foe St. John Fisher’s 2005 accomplishment with an undefeated regular season?

No. 3 – Atlantic: Will more than one NJAC team make the NCAA tournament?

The NJAC hasn’t put more than one team in the tournament since Montclair State and Ramapo made the field in 2003. New Jersey City and Ramapo made the tournament in 2005 but the Gothic Knights were in Pool B. Conference play usually leaves even the better NJAC teams with a couple loses, but those teams also haven’t rolled up the impressive regional winning percentage needed to secure an at-large bid. This year No. 14 Richard Stockton and William Paterson have one regional loss each and only play each other once in the regular season.

No. 4 – Mid-Atlantic: Will No. 25 DeSales finally make the NCAA tournament?

Year after year the Bulldogs have been tantalizing close to making the NCAA tournament only to miss it in heart-breaking fashion. Last year they had 19 wins but lost to King’s in the MAC-Freedom championship. They had 20 wins but lost to King’s in the title game in 2005. They missed the tournament with 22 wins in 2004 and were conference runners-up again in 2003. This year’s edition is led by Darnell Braswell (16.5 ppg) and Brian Hunter, a transfer from Division I Lehigh. DeSales is undefeated with nine wins to start the year. But last year Elizabethtown started 10-0, mashed DeSales in a January match up and didn’t even make its conference tournament.

No. 5 – South: Which slow-starting preseason favorite will have the biggest turnaround?

If this question asked for the “fastest” turnaround, Randolph-Macon would have already won that honor. The preseason favorite in the ODAC started 1-3 before ripping off six straight victories, including the 75-63 win over No. 13 Ursinus. Two of the Tigers’ three loses are out of region but they still have plenty of competition among teams needing a turn around. Preseason No. 10 Mary-Hardin Baylor lost its first three games but got a nice win over No. 6 UW-Whitewater to move back to .500. You can even throw Maryville (Tenn.) in the mix as the Scots are 4-6 after last night’s loss at No. 18 Centre. All those loses are in region and the Scots are battling with several teams they don’t play, like Chapman and the Landmark members, to secure a bid through Pool B.

No. 6 – Great Lakes: Will we really have a post-season in which Wooster, Wittenberg, Hope and Calvin aren’t featured prominently?

A combination of youth, injuries and a relative drop off in Wittenberg’s success have left these four teams just 20-19 to start the year. Hope is still a question mark since the Flying Dutchmen have only played two Division III opponents (loses to Wheaton (Ill.) and Carthage). It’s not unreasonable to think that even these storied teams need to reload. But it would be strange not to see at least one of them advance far into the tournament. At least one has reached the regional finals every year since 2002. They have combined for 17 appearances in the last 6 tournaments.

No. 7 – Midwest: How many CCIW teams will make the NCAA tournament?

The CCIW has three teams in the Top 10 (Wheaton, Elmhurst and Augustana), four in the Top 20 (add Illinois Wesleyan) and a fifth that is unranked but undefeated (Millikin). Those five teams have four regional loses combined but soon head into grueling (for them) and entertaining (for us) conference play. The rest of the CCIW is a combined 13 games over .500 so there are no assured victories. Since only four teams make the CCIW tournament, there will be a lot on the line every game.

No. 8 – West: Who is more likely to secure home court advantage on the road to Salem – UW-Platteville, St. Thomas or Buena Vista?

This question isn’t about winning the conference or making the playoffs. It’s about rolling up enough wins and having the logistical advantage that factor into host site selections. I’m assuming geography and budget restrictions keep the NWC champion out of this conversation. UW-Platteville has the toughest hill to climb given the WIAC’s history of bruising play. Buena Vista has a regional loss but will be the prohibitive favorite to win the IIAC. Ditto for St. Thomas in the MIAC, minus the regional loss. And maybe the geographically isolated SCIAC champion could host the first and second rounds if the Conference puts two in the tournament and Chapman grabs a Pool B bid.

No. 9 – National: Are pollsters too focused on the CCIW and WIAC?

Seven teams in the Top 25 are from those two conferences. That’s a lot but not entirely unusual. Six teams from the CCIW and WIAC were ranked in the Top 25 at this point in 2007 and 2008. Maybe the voters are hedging their bets by picking multiple teams and figuring at least one will advance deep in the tournament. The CCIW and WIAC actually haven’t had an inordinate number of Final Four appearances with three each. That’s not bad but it isn’t more than the MIAA, NESCAC, NCAC, OAC, ODAC and UAA. The CCIW and WIAC sometimes meet in the tournament and cancel each other out, but not always. Last year the representatives were eliminated by teams from the MIAA (Hope), IIAC (Buena Vista and Loras) and UAA (Wash U.). In 2007 they were done in by the UAA (Wash U.) and MWC (Carroll). So are the voters (including me) missing the boat by putting so many in the Top 25?

Feel free to comment on these or any other story lines and happy new season!