Quick Hits predicts the first round scores

Posted on November 22, 2019 by Greg Thomas

The story goes, one day on a long ride to a playoff game at Thiel (which tells you how long ago this happened), Pat and Keith decided to pass the time by guessing not just the winner of each first-round playoff game, but the score. And there was born the expectations game: Do we expect a close game? A high-scoring game? A blowout? Does everyone agree on who will win? Those are the factors worth looking at.

Keith McMillan, Ryan Tipps, Pat Coleman, Adam Turer, Frank Rossi and Greg Thomas each take their guesses at scores for each first-round game.

— Pat Coleman (Linfield athletics photo)

Mary Hardin-Baylor bracket
Keith’s take: UMHB 56, Redlands 28 Ryan’s take: UMHB 31, Redlands 10 Pat’s take: UMHB 45, Redlands 24	Adam’s take: UMHB 23, Redlands 17 Frank’s take: UMHB 35, Redlands 17 Greg’s take: UMHB 30, Redlands 14
Consensus: Strong consensus here for a Cru win by two or three scores.
Keith’s take: Berry 35, Huntingdon 31 Ryan’s take: Berry 38, Huntingdon 34 Pat’s take: Berry 56, Huntingdon 17	Adam’s take: Berry 24, Huntingdon 21 Frank’s take: Huntingdon 31, Berry 30 Greg’s take: Berry 38, Huntingdon 13
Consensus: Not quite unanimous, but the panel favors Berry by varying margins.
Keith’s take: UW-Whitewater 42, Monmouth 21 Ryan’s take: UW-Whitewater 42, Monmouth 7 Pat’s take: UW-Whitewater 50, Monmouth 6	Adam’s take: UW-Whitewater 44, Monmouth 24 Frank’s take: UW-Whitewater 47, Monmouth 16 Greg’s take: UW-Whitewater 41, Monmouth 7
Consensus: Unanimous picks for a comfortable Warhawk victory.
Keith’s take: Wartburg 27, Hope 21 Ryan’s take: Wartburg 34, Hope 24 Pat’s take: Wartburg 38, Hope 28	Adam’s take: Wartburg 40, Hope 37 Frank’s take: Wartburg 27, Hope 21 Greg’s take: Wartburg 38, Hope 35
Consensus: It’s a sweep for Wartburg in a high scoring, one score game.

Wheaton bracket
Keith’s take: Wheaton 49, Martin Luther 0 Ryan’s take: Wheaton 50, Martin Luther 6 Pat’s take: Wheaton 62, Martin Luther 6	Adam’s take: Wheaton 50, Martin Luther 6 Frank’s take: Wheaton 56, Martin Luther 10 Greg’s take: Wheaton 56, Martin Luther 0
Consensus: The panel sees top-seeded Wheaton cruising into the second round.
Keith’s take: UW-Oshkosh 18, Central 14 Ryan’s take: Central 28, UW-Oshkosh 27 Pat’s take: UW-Oshkosh 30, Central 20	Adam’s take: UW-Oshkosh 28, Central 27 Frank’s take: UW-Oshkosh 31, Central 20 Greg’s take: UW-Oshkosh 28, Central 10
Consensus: It isn’t unanimous, but the Titans are the panel’s choice to advance by one or two scores.
Keith’s take: Linfield 35, Chapman 27 Ryan’s take: Linfield 31, Chapman 28 Pat’s take: Chapman 28, Linfield 27	Adam’s take: Linfield 19, Chapman 16 Frank’s take: Linfield 35, Chapman 27 Greg’s take: Chapman 24, Linfield 21
Consensus: Split decision for Linfield in what appears to be one of the closer games of the first round.
Keith’s take: St. John’s 38, Aurora 24 Ryan’s take: St. John’s 52, Aurora 13 Pat’s take: St. John’s 54, Aurora 35	Adam’s take: St. John’s 49, Aurora 35 Frank’s take: St. John’s 45, Aurora 14 Greg’s take: St. John’s 49, Aurora 21
Consensus: Aurora likely won’t get completely shut down, but St. John’s should be able to outscore the Spartans and win by multiple scores.

Salisbury bracket
Keith’s take: Salisbury 63, SUNY-Maritime 0 Ryan’s take: Salisbury 63, SUNY-Maritime 0 Pat’s take: Salisbury 68, SUNY-Maritime 0	Adam’s take: Salisbury 57, SUNY-Maritime 9 Frank’s take: Salisbury 55, SUNY-Maritime 10 Greg’s take: Salisbury 56, SUNY-Maritime 7
Consensus: Unanimous predictions here for an easy run to the second round for the Sea Gulls.
Keith’s take: Union 31, Case 21 Ryan’s take: Union 38, Case 17 Pat’s take: Union 24, Case 17	Adam’s take: Union 34, Case 24 Frank’s take: Union 31, Case 21 Greg’s take: Union 27, Case 17
Consensus: Clean sweep for the Dutchmen, generally by about 10 points.
Keith’s take: Muhlenberg 45, MIT 10 Ryan’s take: Muhlenberg 45, MIT 14 Pat’s take: Muhlenberg 56, MIT 6	Adam’s take: Muhlenberg 45, MIT 3 Frank’s take: Muhlenberg 42, MIT 14 Greg’s take: Muhlenberg 42, MIT 7
Consensus: The Mules should overwhelm the Engineers and trot on in to the second round.
Keith’s take: Brockport 22, W. New England 19 Ryan’s take: W. New England 24, Brockport 21 Pat’s take: Brockport 24, W. New England 13	Adam’s take: Brockport 20, W. New England 14 Frank’s take: W. New England 27, Brockport 20 Greg’s take: Brockport 26, W. New England 10
Consensus: Split decision for Brockport, but this game looks to be close.

Mount Union bracket
Keith’s take: Mount Union 63, Hanover 7 Ryan’s take: Mount Union 63, Hanover 3 Pat’s take: Mount Union 56, Hanover 10	Adam’s take: Mount Union 48, Hanover 24 Frank’s take: Mount Union 59, Hanover 7 Greg’s take: Mount Union 61, Hanover 10
Consensus: No surprise here, Mount Union is predicted to advance easily.
Keith’s take: North Central 40, Wabash 25 Ryan’s take: North Central 42, Wabash 10 Pat’s take: North Central 56, Wabash 10	Adam’s take: North Central 38, Wabash 14 Frank’s take: North Central 45, Wabash 21 Greg’s take: North Central 45, Wabash 21
Consensus: North Central’s top-ranked offense sweeps the board with a comfortable win over Wabash.
Keith’s take: Wesley 17, Framingham State 14 Ryan’s take: Wesley 28, Framingham State 20 Pat’s take: Wesley 41, Framingham State 24	Adam’s take: Wesley 21, Framingham State 20 Frank’s take: Wesley 21, Framingham State 20 Greg’s take: Wesley 24, Framingham State 21
Consensus: Wesley is the unanimous pick, but five of our panelists see a one score game.
Keith’s take: Del Val 28, Bridgewater 24 Ryan’s take: Del Val 41, Bridgewater 21 Pat’s take: Bridgewater 17, Del Val 15	Adam’s take: Bridgewater 21, Del Val 14 Frank’s take: Del Val 27, Bridgewater 24 Greg’s take: Del Val 17, Bridgewater 10
Consensus: Split decision for Delaware Valley, with the panel largely seeing a close game that could go either way.

We invite you to add your predictions in the comments below, or tweet at us at @D3Keith, @NewsTipps and @d3football. Download the Around the Nation podcast on Mondays, where Pat and Keith review the picks and the highlights from the weekend’s playoff games.

ATN Podcast 252: Johnnies and Tommies and Panthers (oh my)

Posted on October 21, 2019 by Pat Coleman

One of Saturday’s big games was well-known, well-promoted, and lived up to the hype of 19,508 fans. The other was played in front of a little bit fewer people, and was hardly predicted. So when the Johnnies beat the Tommies, sure, we knew that would be a big deal — but when Birmingham-Southern knocked off No. 7 Berry …

Berry had two chances to get back into the game in the third quarter, but Birmingham-Southern held firm. We talked with Panthers coach Tony Joe White about his team’s game plan, their star running back, and the mess created at the top of the Southern Athletic Association.

Plus, Keith gave his game ball to an offensive line, while one off-the-beaten path highlight was a Maine event. Someone threw nine touchdowns. UK soccer teams were cited. And rushing yards were a big negative. Plus, are the Johnnies a national title contender? Pat has seen them the past two weeks against top-notch competition and reveals where he moved SJU to on his Top 25 ballot.

This edition of the D3football.com Around the Nation podcast is sponsored by Gotta Have It: 3D Fan Foam Wall Signs for the D-III fan in your life.

Pat and Keith talk about it all in the latest D3football.com Around the Nation Podcast. The D3football.com Around the Nation Podcast is a regular conversation between Pat Coleman and Keith McMillan and guests covering the wide range of Division III football.

Show links: Miracle in Mississippi

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Quick Hits Week 6: Where the rubber meets the road

Posted on October 11, 2019 by Greg Thomas

Week 6 features key games at the top of the MIAC, NJAC, PAC, SAA, and SCIAC. Not every team is playing for control of their league, and our panel also takes a look at teams likely to get their seasons jump started as the season moves into the second half.

Our regular crew is Keith McMillan, Ryan Tipps, Pat Coleman, Adam Turer, Frank Rossi and Greg Thomas.

— Greg Thomas

Which game is the Game of the Week?

Keith’s take: No. 12 Wesley at No. 14 Salisbury. There are MIAC, WIAC, SCIAC and SAA games that could fit here, but the Route 13 Rivalry winner will have a second victory against a playoff-caliber team and a clear path to the NJAC title and playoffs.	Ryan’s take: No. 12 Wesley at No. 14 Salisbury. Two undefeated rivals sharing the top spot in the conference — made even more interesting by the NJAC being down this year and no guarantee the loser will make the playoffs with one loss.	Pat’s take: No. 6 Bethel at No. 4 St. John’s. Next question.
Adam’s take: No. 12 Wesley at No. 14 Salisbury. The Wolverines have reversed their fortunes from 2018 and found ways to win close games. The Sea Gulls have struggled to put opponents away late but have hung on to remain unbeaten. This should be a nail-biter with the winner holding the inside track on the NJAC championship.	Frank’s take: No. 12 Wesley at No. 14 Salisbury. One will be in a great NJAC race position. One will need to start counting Pool C bids and hope to win out.	Greg’s take: No. 6 Bethel at No. 4 St. John’s. Several good games on the docket this week, but 4 vs. 6 is a rare bird, indeed. The first of three titanic MIAC games this season, and the weather will give this one the late season feel it deserves.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to get upset?

Keith’s take: No. 8 Berry. Not that I think the Vikings aren’t favorites at home, but there’s not as much distance between them and unranked, unbeaten Hendrix as the poll might suggest.	Ryan’s take: No. 25 Case Western Reserve. Though, admittedly, I’ve got W&J ranked on my ballot and not Case, so I wouldn’t see a Presidents’ win as being all that much of an upset.	Pat’s take: None. With six ranked teams playing each other, not so many teams left in upsettable positions.
Adam’s take: No. 25 Case Western Reserve. Either the Spartans create separation and set themselves up for a title tilt at Carnegie Mellon in Week 11, or the Presidents prevail and create some #PACtion chaos. A W&J win could create a five-way tie atop the conference standings.	Frank’s take: No. 25 Case Western Reserve (vs. Washington & Jefferson). The merry-go-round in the PAC continues as W&J needs this win to stay alive.	Greg’s take: No. 15 Redlands. The Bulldogs are on the road at a sneaky good Chapman squad that might be flying a bit under the radar. This is a dangerous game for Redlands.

Which ECFC teams get their first wins?

Keith’s take: Castleton. The six ECFC teams are 2-22, but only the Gallaudet-Castleton winner is guaranteed a W. Vermont is a long way from D.C., and I’ll take the Spartans at home, and that’s it.	Ryan’s take: Castleton and Dean. The Spartans can lean on their dual-strength offense against Gallaudet, and it shouldn’t be overlooked that Dean’s Terrell Watts is the conference’s best quarterback.	Pat’s take: Anna Maria. I think the AMCATs are a little further ahead in their program building than Alfred State is.
Adam’s take: Castleton and Dean. The Spartans’ defense has kept them in close games this season and the offense should be able to do enough to defeat Gallaudet. The Bulldogs’ defense has been a weakness, but so has SUNY-Maritime’s offense. The defenses hang on for wins this week.	Frank’s take: Castleton.	Greg’s take: Castleton. The wait for win number one goes on for another week for Gallaudet, Dean, and Anna Maria.

Which game are you following that nobody else on this panel is following?

Keith’s take: Occidental at Whittier. The Tigers haven’t beaten an NCAA team since defeating the Poets 56-38 on Oct. 29, 2016, but it could happen here in 2019.	Ryan’s take: Bowdoin at Amherst. Last week’s narrow loss to NESCAC top dog Wesleyan puts winless Bowdoin’s outing against Amherst on my upset radar.	Pat’s take: Brevard at Methodist. The Tornadoes aren’t playoff-eligible yet but are unbeaten and interesting.
Adam’s take: Heidelberg at Marietta. The middle of the OAC is crowded, with both of these teams coming off their first loss of the season. How will they respond, knowing that playoff berths are likely already out of reach with the toughest part of the conference schedule still ahead of them?	Frank’s take: Misericordia at Widener. I explain why in this week’s ATN Friday Podcast.	Greg’s take: St. Vincent at Thiel. This might be the one. It’s been a long time since Thiel has been able to Taste the Feeling of victory.

Which team with a tough first half starts the second half of the season on a positive note?

Keith’s take: Lycoming is one point from being winless, but should start the second half off with a win over Alvernia, which hasn’t scored more than 13 in a game since Sept. 14.	Ryan’s take: George Fox. I did think the Bruins would be better-positioned at this point, but while the defense has largely been solid, the offense is only now starting to click. That fact alone can help turn things around.	Pat’s take: Husson. The Eagles are just 1-3 so far but Curry has to travel to Maine to play them.
Adam’s take: Rowan. The Profs have played as well as any 0-4 team in the nation. Their opponents are a combined 13-4. Rowan’s last two losses were on the road to then-ranked opponents by a combined total of four points. The Profs take their frustration out on Kean in front of a home crowd this week.	Frank’s take: Rowan (vs. Kean). Give them this much: the Profs schedule a rough beginning set of opponents. This should be their first win.	Greg’s take: Christopher Newport. This has just not gone the way the Captains thought it would. They should break a long touchdown drought and get one in the win column this weekend.

Which team with a strong first half starts the second half on a negative note?

Keith’s take: Chapman begins the middle third of its season with its first loss when Elias Hackney and Redlands take care of business.	Ryan’s take: Westminster (Pa.). The Titans’ four wins so far have come at the expense of teams that are a combined 2-16. Upcoming battles against Grove City (this week), W&J and Carnegie Mellon will prove difficult.	Pat’s take: Puget Sound. Linfield’s struggles don’t go as far as losing this game.
Adam’s take: Central. The Dutch are off to an impressive 4-0 start, but the schedule is heavily backloaded. Central closes the season against the other top three teams in the ARC (at Simpson, Wartburg, at Coe), but can’t get caught looking past a battle-tested 2-3 Dubuque squad this week.	Frank’s take: Hobart (vs. RPI). The Statesmen failed to kick in the Union game, and RPI has bounced well since the 6-3 loss vs. WPI.	Greg’s take: No. 12 Wesley. The Wolverines have been walking a tightrope for a few weeks now and I think their Route 13 rivals are going to deal the Wolverines their first loss of the season.

We invite you to add your predictions in the comments below. Download the Around the Nation podcast on Fridays, where Pat and Keith review the Quick Hits that were prescient, and the Quick Misses that were terribly off base.