Quick Hits: Rivalries taking center stage

Posted on November 10, 2017 by Pat Coleman

Whether playing for a playoff spot, playing out the string, playing for a bell (Monon or Victory), or playing in a rivalry with no trophy at all, there should be lots of intrigue here in Week 11.

Our regular crew is Keith McMillan, Ryan Tipps, Pat Coleman, Adam Turer and Frank Rossi. Our sixth spot goes to a guest each week, and this week’s guest is Brendan McKinnon. A former wide receiver at the Coast Guard Academy, Brendan also ran a college football site on Fox Sports’ Yardbarker blog network for five seasons.

— Pat Coleman

What’s this week’s Game of the Week?

Keith’s take: No. 19 Concordia-Moorhead at No. 6 St. John’s. Other games could set more playoff dominoes in motion, but this matches better teams and is essentially a play-in.	Ryan’s take: No. 19 Concordia-Moorhead at No. 6 St. John’s. Two regionally ranked teams vying to stay in the Pool C hunt. What’s not to love?	Pat’s take: Wabash at DePauw. This year, it’s Wabash’s opportunity to play spoiler, as DePauw is somehow in the top half of the North Region rankings.
Adam’s take: Concordia-Moorhead at St. John’s. The playoffs start a week early for these two ranked MIAC teams. Winner is in, loser is out.	Frank’s take: MIT at No. 20 Springfield. This game carries Pool B & C implications, as a Springfield loss would open up a Pool C slot.	Brendan’s take: The Secretaries’ Cup (Coast Guard-Merchant Marine) on ESPN3. It’s finally back at the end of the season where it belongs.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to get upset?

Keith’s take: No. 14 Case Western Reserve. Last week’s dominance should have made us all believers, but the visit to 7-2 Carnegie Mellon is by far their toughest road test to date.	Ryan’s take: No. 14 Case Western Reserve. For all the talk of their playoff chances, a loss to Carnegie Mellon would take stress off the selection committee.	Pat’s take: No. 24 UW-La Crosse. Plenty of teams in the bottom few spots of the West Region rankings have taken extra losses so far. They could add to the list.
Adam’s take: No. 12 Wittenberg. Wooster has an explosive offense and will want to push the pace in a shootout. The Tigers have already clinched the NCAC title.	Frank’s take: No. 14 Case Western Reserve (at Carnegie Mellon). The Week 10 bye for the Tartans might be exactly what the team needs to bounce back and upset Case.	Guest’s take: No. 14 Case Western Reserve. Trap games and rivalries are a bad combination.

Pick a winner in a head-to-head game for an automatic bid.

Keith’s take: No. 7 Delaware Valley (vs. Widener). The Pride have a chance, and it would disrupt Pool C, but the Aggies’ defense is playing too well to blow the shot at 10-0.	Ryan’s take: Delaware Valley, over Widener. The Aggies have impressed all season and won’t slow now.	Pat’s take: Monmouth. There’s really only one way the Midwest Conference championship game will go.
Adam’s take: Monmouth. The Scots win the only true conference championship game and secure the MWC bid.	Frank’s take: No. 7 Delaware Valley (vs. Widener). As much as I favor upsets, I can’t see this game being a real challenge for the Aggies, with their balance on both sides of the ball.	Guest’s take: Johns Hopkins has the Centennial Conference locked up against McDaniel.

Who salvages a subpar season with a win in its finale?

Keith’s take: No. 23 UW-Whitewater. The Warhawks should beat UW-Eau Claire easily to finish 6-1 in the No. 1 conference, with losses to 10-0 and two 9-1 teams.	Ryan’s take: Washington U. Tough, tough schedule led to a bad record. If they’re not too beat up, Bridgewater should net them a win.	Pat’s take: Wabash. Because Bell.
Adam’s take: Coe. Last year’s 10-0 season is a distant memory. A win over Buena Vista would at least avoid finishing in the cellar alone.	Frank’s take: Stevenson (vs. Lycoming). The Mustangs started ranked in the Top 25, only to risk falling to .500 with a loss Saturday — a loss I believe they avoid.	Guest’s take: UW-Platteville. The Pioneers will end their skid and finish with a winning conference record.

Alma mater excluded, pick a winner in a rivalry game.

Keith’s take: Union or Wabash. Two of D-III’s best rivalries are back now that both sides are good at the same time again. We’ll see some weirdness Saturday.	Ryan’s take: Cortland. The Jug game this year pits two pretty evenly matched teams.	Pat’s take: Coast Guard. Glad this game is being showcased on ESPN3. It should be an entertaining one.
Adam’s take: Randolph-Macon. The Yellow Jackets’ strengths (rushing and rush defense) exploit Hampden-Sydney’s biggest weaknesses.	Frank’s take: Wabash (at DePauw). I mean, this game is listed to start at 1:07 p.m. If it started at 1:06, I’d favor DePauw, of course.	Guest’s take: Ithaca has more to play for; they’ll break their long losing streak to Cortland and win the Cortaca Jug.

Who heads into the playoffs without momentum?

Keith’s take: Lakeland. The Muskies won’t lose to Rockford, and even if the Muskies, a first-round game at somewhere like UW-Oshkosh awaits.	Ryan’s take: Chapman. Because being robbed of a final game to polish your skills on the field is a tough pill to swallow.	Pat’s take: Lakeland. Heading for a game against a top seed somewhere, without Michael Whitley at full mobility? Ballgame.
Adam’s take: No. 10 Brockport. The Golden Eagles will be without starting QB Joe Germinerio, so expect a low-scoring game against St. Lawrence in Week 11.	Frank’s take: Ithaca (vs. Cortland). This allows me to pick Union in the Dutchman’s Shoes game vs. RPI, giving the Bombers the LL AQ. Yet, Ithaca’s 2-2 vs. E8 teams this year.	Guest’s take: Western New England. They haven’t faced a playoff caliber opponent in two months.

We invite you to add your predictions in the comments below. Download the Around the Nation podcast on Mondays, where Pat and Keith review the Quick Hits that were prescient, and the Quick Misses that were terribly off base.

ATN Podcast 183: Here’s what’s left

Posted on November 6, 2017 by Pat Coleman

We’re under a week from Selection Sunday. Only seven automatic bids are still up for grabs, and most will be really hard to pry away from the favorites. But what if both Washington & Jefferson and Case Western Reserve run the table? What if Widener upsets Delaware Valley? What if (insert your scenario here)? You can find out more in this week’s D3football.com Around the Nation podcast.

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Pat and Keith hand out game balls, find the hidden highlights, the interesting stats and much more in the D3football.com Around the Nation Podcast.

The D3football.com Around the Nation Podcast is a regular conversation between Pat Coleman and Keith McMillan and guests covering the wide range of Division III football.

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Quick Hits: Who will clinch

Posted on November 3, 2017 by Pat Coleman

This weekend is all about who will clinch automatic bids, on top of all the things that typically go on in a Division III football weekend. Our Quick Hits crew predicts clinchers, Top 25 upsets, conference upsets and teams that will go into the offseason on a high note. Our regular crew is Keith McMillan, Ryan Tipps, Pat Coleman, Adam Turer and Frank Rossi. Our sixth spot goes to a guest each week, and this week’s is Patrick Bohn, an Ithaca grad who posts as Bomber798891 on D3boards.com.

— Pat Coleman

What’s Week 10’s Game of the Week?

Keith’s take: No. 25 Salisbury at No. 13 Wesley. Route 13 Rivalry pits two of NJAC’s three 7-1 teams, which gives it conference title and playoff implications.	Ryan’s take: No. 25 Salisbury at No. 13 Wesley. The Route 13 Rivalry is rarely one to disappoint. Honorable mention: WNE at Curry.	Pat’s take: Alfred at No. 10 Brockport. I think this game will be telling about the shift in the balance of the force in the E8.
Adam’s take: Union vs. Ithaca. Two first-year head coaches shaking up the Liberty League and two teams with plenty to play for.	Frank’s take: No. 25 Salisbury at No. 13 Wesley. A Wesley win gives Wolverines NJAC. A Salisbury win could take NJAC out of Pool C contention.	Patrick’s take: No. 25 Salisbury at No. 13 Wesley. These two teams have played (mostly) competitive games over the past few years, and both bring stout defenses to the table.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to get upset?

Keith’s take: No. 16 Case Western Reserve. Westminster (Pa.) has six- and one-point losses to 8-0 teams. CWRU loss would help Pool C hopefuls.	Ryan’s take: No. 21 George Fox. If Pacific Lutheran’s performance against Linfield last week is any indication.	Pat’s take: No. 20 UW-Plattevile. Because Keith will want me to pick someone, even though this would hardly be an upset.
Adam’s take: No. 16 Case Western Reserve. Westminster (Pa.) is the most underrated two-loss team in the country, losing by a total of seven to unbeatens Wittenberg and Washington & Jefferson.	Frank’s take: No. 21 George Fox. Last week was a reminder that Pacific Lutheran is still a threat. They finish the deal this week.	Patrick’s take: No. 9 North Central. Carthage nearly pulled off the upset at Illinois Wesleyan, so the Cardinals should be on the lookout.

Name a team outside the Top 25 which will clinch a bid this weekend.

Keith’s take: Huntingdon (vs. Methodist). Since a Week 1 loss to Guilford, USAC’s Hawks have averaged 37.4 points per game.	Ryan’s take: Lakeland. The Muskies hold the tiebreaker over the two teams with one NACC loss.	Pat’s take: Trine. For that to happen this weekend, Trine must beat Alma and another game must go Trine’s way.
Adam’s take: Huntingdon. The Hawks will clinch the USA South, and will be a popular Quick Hit pick for the second straight week.	Frank’s take: Husson (vs. Alfred State). One of the bigger geography challenges for the NCAA selection committee will be back once again in the Pool of 32.	Patrick’s take: Franklin. The Grizzlies should light up the scoreboard against Anderson and easily clinch the HCAC auto-bid.

How many points will be scored, total, in the Montclair State-Rowan game?

Keith’s take: 24.	Ryan’s take: 31. A trick question since these two teams have played the best in the NJAC in recent outings, and the scoreboard reflected that.	Pat’s take: 22. Only because to say “3” seems harsh.
Adam’s take: 29. More than the 27 total that the Profs have scored during their five-game losing streak.	Frank’s take: 17.	Patrick’s take: 25. Both teams have good kickers, so I’m betting on six field goals and one touchdown.

What team will end the season this week on a high note?

Keith’s take: Thomas More. Saints get win No. 6 against Thiel, but last season in the PAC a disappointment.	Ryan’s take: Mount St. Joseph. Sure, last year’s game vs. Defiance came down to the wire, but recent history is on the Lions’ side.	Pat’s take: Simpson. A win vs. Nebraska Wesleyan, makes the Storm 6-4, three games better than 2016. (Plus they won’t help IWU’s and Concordia’s SOS.)
Adam’s take: Thomas More. The Saints will win their fifth in a row, finish above .500 for the tenth straight season, and send retiring coach Regis Scafe off with a victory.	Frank’s take: Mount St. Joseph. After combining with Franklin to score 105 points in a loss last week, the Lions roar at home to close out their season.	Patrick’s take: Northwestern. The Eagles’ season may have been a disappointment, but they’ll head into the offseason — and send fans home happy — on a four-game winning streak with a win over Crown.

Pick a winner in a conference upset outside the Top 25.

Keith’s take: Ithaca, vs. Union. The Bombers’ 5-3 mark has come against tougher opposition (.559 to .521 SoS) than the Dutchmen’s 7-1, and it will show.	Ryan’s take: MacMurray over St. Scholastica. No doubt Eureka is rooting for this outcome.	Pat’s take: Adrian over Olivet. This is that other result Trine needs to clinch the MIAA this week. Adrian is a misleading 3-5.
Adam’s take: Claremont-Mudd-Scripps. The Stags might steal a win from Chapman, but the Panthers already have the conference title and playoff berth.	Frank’s take: Martin Luther. After a win that looked to potentially seal the UMAC for Eureka last week, the Knights have a chance to catch the Red Devils napping.	Patrick’s take: Utica. A tough Pioneers defense catches Cortland — who were stunned by St. John Fisher last week — looking ahead to Cortaca.