Game day from the madness

I’m in Naperville, Ill.; Keith McMillan is in Westerville, Ohio; John McGraw is in Geneva, N.Y.; and Frank Rossi is in Belton, Texas. And there are photographers elsewhere and of course, your eyes are everywhere.

Twelve weeks into the Division III football season, and while us Triple Takers were fairly unanimous with our first-round predictions, there are still lingering questions.

We all think Wheaton will win, but here’s what Trine has on its side. Trine has a 10-game home winning streak going and hasn’t lost at Shive Field since a 21-7 loss to Hope on Oct. 28, 2006. That’s another era in Trine/Tri-State football, to be sure.

We all picked Hardin-Simmons to lose to Mary Hardin-Baylor. I know I looked at the last meeting and took into account that Mary Hardin-Baylor is really banged up. But we all picked the home team to lose, and that’s a red flag. This game is too close to call, and I think our scores reflected that. That’s also why we sent a broadcast crew, since we think this is going to be a great game.

Plus, there’s the weather. It should hold scores down across the North Central and Mount Union bracket. Is it enough to prompt an upset? There aren’t many games being played on grass today, but the ball will still be affected.

We’ll update. You’ll update. It’ll be a great time. Madness on!

Triple Take: First Round Predictions

Week 12 is here, and if you’re anything like me, the annual let’s-all-start-at-noon 16-game smackdown is your favorite Saturday of the season. There are ECAC bowls and makeup games too, but in all honesty, the Walnut and Bronze is what we play (or watch) for, and one of the 32 teams in the field will be in Salem on Dec. 20 hoisting it.

You might not need an expert to tell you that the No. 1 team in the D3football.com Top 25 is expected to win it all. But expected outcomes in the first-round matchups are less certain, especially if your vision is clouded by the love of a particular team or the lack of knowledge of much outside your home conference.

It is with that in mind that Pat Coleman, Ryan Tipps and I give you our playoff score predictions. These are not “lines,” and this is not a contest between the three of us. It’s an experiment in expectation vs. outcome.

Simply put, the three of us separately guesstimate what Saturday’s 16 final scores will be. In some cases, our expectations will be remarkably similar. In others, they’ll differ. Everything the three of us think will happen won’t, but at least you’ll know a stunning result when you see it.

MOUNT UNION (East) BRACKET
No. 8 Randolph-Macon at No. 1 Mount Union
Keith: Mount Union, 44-7
Ryan: Mount Union, 63-7
Pat: Mount Union, 63-6

No. 5 Lycoming at No. 4 Hobart
Keith: Lycoming, 13-12
Ryan: Lycoming, 24-14
Pat: Hobart, 14-10

No. 6 Plymouth State at No. 3 Cortland State
Keith: Cortland State, 24-13
Ryan: Cortland State, 31-17
Pat: Cortland State, 32-14

No. 7 Curry at No. 2 Ithaca
Keith: Ithaca, 42-21
Ryan: Ithaca, 42-13
Pat: Ithaca, 48-7

NORTH CENTRAL (North) BRACKET
No. 8 Thomas More at No. 1 North Central
Keith: North Central, 33-10
Ryan: North Central, 31-21
Pat: North Central, 45-14

No. 5 Franklin at No. 4 Otterbein
Keith: Otterbein, 30-27
Ryan: Otterbein, 37-14
Pat: Otterbein, 35-20

No. 6 Wabash at No. 3 Case Western Reserve
Keith: Case Western Reserve, 15-12
Ryan: Wabash, 34-28
Pat: Wabash, 35-28

No. 7 Wheaton at No. 2 Trine
Keith:Wheaton, 27-24
Ryan: Wheaton, 24-23
Pat: Wheaton, 38-21

WILLAMETTE (West) BRACKET
No. 2 Occidental at No. 1 Willamette
Keith: Willamette, 34-23
Ryan: Willamette, 31-17
Pat: Willamette, 41-27

No. 6 St. John’s at No. 5 UW-Whitewater
Keith: UW-Whitewater, 28-14
Ryan: UW-Whitewater, 17-13
Pat: UW-Whitewater, 24-14

No. 7 Wartburg at No. 4 UW-Stevens Point
Keith: UW-Stevens Point, 14-13
Ryan: Wartburg, 21-14
Pat: UW-Stevens Point, 17-3

No. 8 Aurora at No. 3 Monmouth
Keith: Monmouth, 38-20
Ryan: Monmouth, 42-31
Pat: Monmouth, 30-13

MILLSAPS (South) BRACKET
No. 8 LaGrange at No. 1 Millsaps
Keith: Millsaps, 49-17
Ryan: Millsaps, 45-10
Pat: Millsaps, 63-3

No. 6 Christopher Newport at No. 5 Washington & Jefferson
Keith: W&J, 28-21
Ryan: W&J, 34-31
Pat: W&J, 24-21

No. 7 Wesley at No. 4 Muhlenberg
Keith: Wesley, 21-20
Ryan: Wesley, 31-20
Pat: Wesley, 31-23

No. 3 Hardin-Simmons at No. 2 Mary Hardin-Baylor
Keith: Hardin-Simmons, 20-18
Ryan: Hardin-Simmons, 27-24
Pat: Hardin-Simmons, 38-35

Anyone who wants to average the scores to come up with a composite “expectation,” go right ahead.

D-III from the other side

Thirty-two teams are preparing for NCAA playoff games and a handful of others are readying for other postseason experiences. Others headed for the offseason with a warm feeling from beating an archrival in the final game, or breaking a streak of losing seasons, finishing on a hot streak or any of a bunch of ways to gather some momentum going into the offseason.

And then there’s a fairly large group at the other end as well, teams whose seasons ended on a down note. That doesn’t include just RPI, Redlands, Montclair State and the others who played their way out of a likely playoff bid with Week 11 losses, but teams who were quickly out of the playoff running altogether.

Or winless, even.

Such was the fate of Colorado College, along with McMurry, Principia, Maranatha Baptist, Massachusetts Maritime and Cornell. And if you remember from early on in the season, Colorado College freshman Chris Jarmon was writing on his blog, The D3 Experience, about the season.

Reading back on it now, you can sense the frustration. This was from a post heading into the final game:

We’re 0-8 now, and just saying that feels strange. It’s hard to believe that with all of the talent and confidence we entered the season with, we’ve been unable to win a single game. I feel especially bad for our seniors, who have busted their tails for four years and deserve better.

For all of those out there who feel that pain, good luck this offseason. Don’t give up. It can get better. But college football, at any level, is hard work.