Bracket analysis, podcast

If you think this bracket is good … and I do, at least a little … you should’ve seen the first version that went out. It had one extra flight in it, and that made a world of difference.

Instead, we have business as usual. And I mean business.

I’m in between show No. 3 and No. 4. I’ll be on North Central’s radio station later, where I’ll probably get asked most of the same questions, which is fine, because it’s a different audience. But there are a lot of things on people’s minds.

We took a ton of questions on our post-selection analysis show. If you missed it, it’s below, and it will end up in your feed if you’re a podcast subscriber.

We also talked with Wheaton coach Mike Swider, Willamette coach Mark Speckman, Mount Union quarterback Greg Micheli and Washington and Jefferson coach Mike Sirianni. Plus, you’ll get an interesting insight into the bracket that did not make ESPNews.

Thanks to the more than a thousand people who listened to the show live, and to the 75 percent of our audience that stuck with us even as we went 45 minutes longer than we planned. But we got to everyone’s questions.

Final playoff projection

Well, what an end to an odd day and an odd season.

With that, we have no choice but to unveil an odd bracket. A bracket with 11, yes 11, South teams. Though just six East teams, so it almost balances.

We’ll all find out during the selection show just after 3 p.m. ET what the NCAA thinks. But a process that was fairly easy last week had some new wrinkles added — losses. And more losses.

As a reminder, 32 teams form four eight-team brackets. And we know the champions of 23 conferences and the automatic bids. Three bids (Pool B) are set aside for independents or members of non-automatic bid conferences. The remaining six bids go to what’s called Pool C, which is everyone left over.

Our bracketology team debated the at-large teams, the seedings and the pairings. Here’s our result.

East bracket
1. Mount Union
2. Ithaca
3. Cortland State
4. Hobart
5. Wesley (B)
6. Plymouth State
7. Montclair State (C)
8. Lycoming
The East has had seasons before without an unbeaten team. But none of them came a year after Mount Union got moved out to the East as the top seed. And it’s time to do it again. First-round pairings here fall right according to the seedings: Lycoming at Mount Union, Montclair State at Ithaca, Plymouth State at Cortland State and Wesley at Hobart.

North Region
1. North Central
2. Trine
3. Case Western Reserve (B)
4. Otterbein (C)
5. Wabash
6. Franklin
7. Aurora
8. Thomas More
Another bracket where pairings go according to seed. Thomas More ducks the trip to Mount Union, thanks to Ithaca. Wabash cost itself a No. 2 or 3 seed with the loss.

South bracket
1. Millsaps
2. Mary Hardin-Baylor
3. Hardin-Simmons (C)
4. Muhlenberg
5. Washington and Jefferson (C)
6. Christopher Newport
7. LaGrange (B)
8. Randolph-Macon
Because of the money requirement of the NCAA, the pairings won’t go according to seed here. LaGrange is at Millsaps, Hardin-Simmons at Mary Hardin-Baylor, Randolph-Macon at Muhlenberg and Christopher Newport at Washington and Jefferson. We could only hope for an extra flight here, but it would really take three to make this bracket work right, and that isn’t happening. Muhlenberg’s loss makes it unreasonable.

West bracket
1. Willamette
2. Occidental
3. Monmouth
4. Stevens Point
5. Whitewater (C)
6. St. John’s
7. DePauw (C)
8. Wartburg
Yes, DePauw. And of course, the NCAA will pit the top two seeds in this bracket against each other. It’s their way. Wartburg at UW-Stevens Point, DePauw at Monmouth and St. John’s at Whitewater to finish out the pairings.

When DePauw was selected, Rowan, Wooster and Cal Lutheran were left on the board. All with two losses. All with opponents’ winning percentages over .530. DePauw with the best opponents’ opponents winning percentage. And DePauw with a win against a regionally ranked team, in Wabash, on the road at that. None of the others have that.

I have a stock response for fans complaining about the Top 25 poll: It’s not who you lost to, it’s who you beat.

For DePauw, it’s who they beat.

We are aware that Trinity has a similar record and a head-to-head win against DePauw and could also merit selection in this spot. But Trinity’s .448 OWP left them further down our list. Hampden-Sydney (.602 OWP) and Salisbury (.588) were significantly higher.

And DePauw has done something lately.