Author Archives: ryantipps

Triple Take: Finding a rhythm

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In Division III, make-or-break time truly comes during conference play. But for teams that have started either 0-2 or 2-0, Week 3 can become as much of a mental hurdle as anything else. Good teams across the country can find themselves on both sides of the fence.

Will teams in these situations turn a corner or stay the course this weekend? Pat, Keith and I look into our modern crystal balls — mostly consisting of keyboards and lots of numbers — to give you the skinny on what to expect come Saturday.

Wesley's Mike Asiedu Game of the Week.
Ryan’s take: No. 8 Delaware Valley at No. 3 Wesley. Not to take anything away from these two teams, which have rolled through their first two games by combined scores of 54-7 and 81-6, respectively, but this weekend will really show that a Top 10 spot needs to be earned, not just given. Expect to see the defenses showcased (DelVal held its ranked opponent to minus-11 rushing yards last week), and we’ll see how adaptable Wesley’s replacement quarterback, Justin Sottilare, is under real pressure. This should be the toughest regular-season game for both teams.
Keith’s take: No. 19 Mississippi College at No. 9 Hardin-Simmons. Largely for the same reason Pat will use below, it’s nearly another early-season elimination game, as No. 5 Mary Hardin-Baylor also resides in the ASC, and we’ve only once seen a conference (the Empire 8 in 2007) send three teams to the postseason. The Choctaws are the defending conference champions, yet by virtue of reputation and stiff early-season competition, they’re third among ASC teams in our poll. The Cowboys’ start has been impressive, and the 575-mile trip from Clinton to Abilene is a serious one, so the Choctaws have their work cut out.
Pat’s take: No. 11 Ohio Northern at No. 18 Otterbein. The loser may well have to consider itself already out of the playoff hunt, having to run the table and beat Mount Union in order to finish 9-1. After last year’s playoff selection process left out every worthy 8-2 team and snubbed a 9-1 team with better numbers, there’s no real incentive. So congrats!

Surprisingly close game.
Ryan’s take: Augustana at Adrian. Most years, good money would put a mid-level CCIW team heads and shoulders above a mid-level MIAA team. But Adrian has shown a lot of potential on defense, and Augie is coming off a difficult week where it couldn’t get anything going on the ground. If Adrian can keep the Vikings receivers from making too many big plays, the Bulldogs should be able to score enough to keep this close.
Keith’s take: Dubuque at No. 7 Central. Surprising only if you don’t follow the IIAC. From afar it might look like just another day at the office for a top-10, but a regular day for Central includes some fourth-quarter magic to pull out a close game, and this season (wins by six and five) has been more of the same. The Spartans have had a chance against the Dutch for three seasons now, although coaches and personnel have changed in that time. Dubuque — a.k.a. the guys on the other end of last week’s Play of the Week at UW-Platteville — surely had no trouble being hungry in practice this week, coming close but not tasting victory last week.
Pat’s take: Maranatha Baptist at Macalester. Maranatha has lost 26 consecutive games, and only one of those 26 has been less than a two-score game. But the Crusaders don’t have Principia or Blackburn to kick around anymore, and Trinity Bible isn’t on the schedle, so this may already be the last chance for a win this season.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset.
Ryan’s take: No. 17 Trine. The question does say “most likely,” and playing against a WIAC team such as UW-River Falls is always a gamble. Plus, River Falls has been in the lion’s mouth twice this year, and though they’ve gotten chewed up both times, they won’t be the least bit intimidated by what Trine brings to the table.
Keith’s take: No. 23 Montclair State. There weren’t as many choices as usual, with six of the top 25 locked in head-to-head battles where one is guaranteed to lose, but it won’t be much of an upset. I’m not sure Rowan is the favorite heading north, but they have had two weeks to prepare since holding off Lycoming, 24-17. The Profs will also likely give more resistance than Westfield State, which the Redhawks beat 34-0 last Saturday. These Rowan-Montclair State games have a history of surprises though.
Pat’s take: No. 7 Central. I’ve been hesitant to pick any high-level upsets so far this season and Dubuque didn’t exactly light the world on fire last week, but these teams have played great games in recent years and if Central keeps letting teams hang around until the end, eventually someone is going to take the Dutch down.

They’ll be on your radar.
Ryan’s take: McMurry. Last year, this ASC team improved by four games under a new coach. This year, they’ve begun their season thumping on two subpar non-D3 teams, allowing only one score from their opponents while putting 105 points on the board themselves. But now let’s welcome them back to their regularly scheduled division, where they have to line up against conference powerhouse Mary Hardin-Baylor. They’ve had a lot of success throwing the ball, finding seven different receivers for touchdowns so far. Even a loss — if they keep the score close — would say a lot about how far this team has come.
Keith’s take: Franklin & Marshall. Following a 10-7 loss to Ursinus, it’s tough to get on this (Conestoga band-)wagon. And Dickinson, normally tough, is coming off a 38-7 loss at Hobart, so it’s tough to know what to make of the Red Devils either. But a solid win by the Diplomats, who held the Bears to 3 points through 53 minutes last week and gave up just two of 14 third-down conversions, would again make them a team to watch and a playoff dark horse.
Pat’s take: St. John Fisher. The Cardinals could be a little underrated so far, but this game, and then the one following against Hobart, will tell us a lot more than the games against Brockport State and Buffalo State have so far.

Which surprise 2-0 team is least likely to go 3-0?
Ryan’s take: St. Scholastica. It’s exciting to see such a new program jump out to a fast start, but it will experience a pretty big hiccup on the road at Concordia (Ill.). Concordia is the conference favorite in the NATHC and is likely seething after a hefty loss to in-city rival Chicago. If the Cougars get back into their groove with both passing and rushing, they will surely be about the stiffest competition St. Scholastica faces all season.
Keith’s take: McMurry. The uh, notIndians, have started about as well as possible, outscoring opponents 105-6. But a win against ASC power Mary Hardin-Baylor would be a major, major shocker. And the Crusaders hit teams where it hurts — or where it’s most difficult for a program on the rise to find good talent in Division III — along the lines.
Pat’s take: Chicago. It’s been a great two weeks so far, but winning at Elmhurst is a taller order than winning at home against Concordia-Chicago.

Which 0-2 team will earn its first win?
Ryan’s take: Wooster. Assuming Wooster can keep Oberlin quarterback Josh Mandel and his passing game in check, there’s no reason the Scots can’t break into the “W” column this week. As far as 0-2 teams go, there’s little shame in having such a record against the likes of Baldwin-Wallace and Wabash. Plus I have some history on my side: Wooster far outgunned Oberlin 52-7 last season. That’s a pretty big swing to overcome in just 12 months no matter how many new faces are on the field.
Keith’s take: Millsaps. Tough-luck losers so far (27-23 to rival Mississippi College and 27-21 in overtime at LaGrange), the Majors return home with finishing a game on their minds. Austin is 2-0, but no longer has the advantage of being unknown, as Millsaps’ head coach is also new, and there are two game videos out there on each team now. The Majors have outgained their first two opponents, held the ball longer and have limited them to 6 of 27 on third downs. Against the Kangaroos, the Majors just need to figure out how to turn that into a victory.
Pat’s take: St. Norbert. It’s almost impossible to fathom St. Norbert at 0-3 considering they’ve lost three games in a season just once since 1998. Last week, the team reacted to the one-game suspension of coach Jim Purtill by dropping a tight one at Beloit. If the Green Knights go 0-3, who knows what might happen next?

Which upset winner from last week will have the biggest letdown?
Ryan’s take: Grinnell. While there are a bevy of reasons why the Pioneers beat Monmouth last week, the injury of the Scots’ All-America quarterback is a big one. Don’t expect Ripon this week to put Grinnell on a similar fast-track to victory. Ripon is adept at finding the end zone and has a ground game that Grinnell is unlikely to stop. Not to mention that Ripon leads the MWC in turnover ratio. Sorry, Grinnell, but this isn’t going to be your weekend.
Keith’s take: Cal Lutheran. I don’t know that they’ll lose at Pacific Lutheran, but on the heels of a program-altering victory like the one the Kingsmen scored against Linfield last Saturday — with an overpowering second half — it can be very difficult for a team to humble itself and get back to work, especially if the next opponent isn’t a major threat. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Cal Lutheran have another rough first half before waking up late and pulling out a victory.
Pat’s take: Baldwin-Wallace. It’s a nice 2-0 start to the season for Heidelberg but the ride gets a little bumpier here for the Yellow Jackets.

Triple Take: Going for seconds

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There’s always a lot of talk about how much teams improve between their first and second games. New skill players are broken in; the men up front learn a little about how to jell; and teams learn the basics of what’s going to be effective this season. And often we get to see how those improvements translate against teams that had a bye last week.

Will a week of seasoning make a big difference for such teams as Delaware Valley or UW-Oshkosh? After all, they both have some tall tasks ahead of them.

Pat Coleman, Keith McMillan and I again give you our thoughts on that and other things to look out for over the weekend:

Game of the Week.
Ryan’s take: No. 20 Washington and Jefferson at No. 10 Delaware Valley. The Aggies were the only MAC team to notch a win last week, though it didn’t scream “domination.” The Presidents, on the other hand, have to open their season this week, and I can think of at least 200 opponents I’d rather face right out of the gate than DelVal — especially without having my offense rest on the skilled shoulders of graduated All-American Bobby Swallow. I’ll fess up that I don’t have W&J on my Top 25 ballot now, but a win or even a very strong showing would likely change that.
Pat’s take: Ursinus at Franklin and Marshall. This is what the expanded Centennial has led to — conference games in Week 2. And it should be a good one. F&M tuned up with a rout of Washington and Lee last week while Ursinus picked off three passes and broke up six more in a win against Albright. Winner gets a little taste of front-runner status headed into its game with Johns Hopkins later in the year.
Keith’s take: No. 13 Willamette at No. 14 Hardin-Simmons. That they’re top 25 teams is nice. That the Bearcats travel a long way to Abilene is even more interesting. But what does it for me is the stakes, knowing both these teams, coming off big wins in Week 1, need to keep the momentum going because the route to the playoffs via winning the NWC or ASC’s automatic bid is far from guaranteed.

Surprisingly close game.
Ryan’s take: Rose-Hulman at DePauw. These two teams are meeting for the first time since Rose bolted from the SCAC ahead of the 2006 season. Each school is debuting this week and is replacing a quarterback who was among the school’s best ever. That means a lot will be said for what happens in the trenches on Saturday, whether there’s protection and pressure. Typically, DPU is at least a two-touchdown favorite, but I think things will be a little closer than that this time around.
Pat’s take: No. 15 Thomas More at Hanover. We had already given Hanover a big jump in our Kickoff rankings this fall, moving the Panthers up 71 slots, one of the biggest upward moves of the year. But Hanover outdid even our optimism last week with a win at Centre. They’re playing their first game, while Thomas More is making its season debut. Then again, Thomas More will have some Hanover video to work from.
Keith’s take: Christopher Newport at Salisbury. Neither team looked to be its typically powerful self on offense in Week 1, scoring 6 and 13, respectively. I think both units get on track, producing a game that’s surprisingly high-scoring, yet close.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset.
Ryan’s take: No. 19 Johns Hopkins. Opponent Randolph-Macon has the benefit of a game already under their belt — and in the walloping doled out last week, it’s clear that the veteran-laden Yellow Jackets are firing on all cylinders. Where does that leave the Blue Jays in their first game of the season, without last year’s All-America running back? 0-1, that’s where. (Apologies to Keith for snagging a chance for him to dote on his alma mater. R-MC.)
Pat’s take: None. Although I think Johns Hopkins has drifted very high considering what’s back, traditionally we try not to repeat each other. So consider this an additional vote for Johns Hopkins, while I’ll also note that a game featuring No. 13 at No. 14 is really a toss-up, so I wouldn’t think that’s upset-eligible either.
Keith’s take: No. 9 St. John’s. The Johnnies and Blugolds have a history of tight matchups, and playing under the lights at Carson Park should be a comfortable atmosphere for UW-Eau Claire. I’m not sure what we can take away from St. John’s’ Week 1 56-10 blowout of Northwestern, but the Blugolds rushed for 220 yards in a 35-31 win against NAIA Bethel (Tenn.) Whether they can run half as well against the Johnnies will be a factor.

They’ll be on your radar.
Ryan’s take: Franklin and Marshall. The Diplomats’ matchup against Ursinus could very easily be the de factor title game for the Centennial Conference (and it’s only Week 2!). Both teams have a game under their belt, but F&M’s competition that first week wasn’t the most primed team. Seeing how they perform against a team like Ursinus will go a long way to showing their true potential. While the Dips are without All-Region receiver George Eager this year, quarterback John Harrison proved last week that he has plenty of targets at his disposal, hitting four players at least three times each.
Pat’s take: East Texas Baptist. Coming off a win against UW-La Crosse, the Tigers have a chance to go 2-0 with a home game against Redlands. That would be a welcome change of pace after going 3-7, 3-5 in the ASC last year. And by the way, F&M is already on my radar. They were on my preseason Top 25 ballot, and nobody else’s.
Keith’s take: Occidental. The 42-25 loss to Menlo was surprising, and I can’t imagine the Oaks’ switch in classification suddenly made them a great team. The Tigers were more likely affected by the preseason turmoil surrounding their coach. If it was just Xs and Os and poor execution, then maybe Puget Sound starts off 2-0. I’ll be watching the Tigers to see how they rebound from a tough start.

Team playing its opener that you’re most curious about.
Ryan’s take: Wheaton. The perennial CCIW power has a slew of new faces among its starting ranks, but I’m most interested in seeing how they’ve settled in at the quarterback position with a trio of players all in the mix. Not to mention that Wheaton scrimmaged my alma mater, Wabash, last weekend, so I’d like to see how the notes from that matchup translate to real-world play.
Pat’s take: Mary Hardin-Baylor. It seems like the Cru lost its way a little bit last season, getting away from what it does best on offense. If they still rotate between LiDarral Bailey and Kyle Noack, perhaps they’ll have a better plan in Year 2 on how to best use them at quarterback.
Keith’s take: Union. Ithaca is at home and has the dreaded already-played-once advantage (a 33-3 win against St. Lawrence). With the Liberty League’s defending champion now playing in another conference, we’d like a hint as to who’s going to contend. Union might be one of the usual suspects, but beating the Bombers could move them to the top of the LL-teams-to-watch list.

Who will win the challenge, PAC or MAC?
Ryan’s take: MAC. Clearly the MAC didn’t have a great opening week, but top to bottom, I have a lot of respect for the conference’s strength. They should win more than half their games against the PAC.
Pat’s take: MAC. Pretty close, though. I have King’s beating Bethany but that’s a big toss-up. If Bethany wins the PAC could tie with wins by Geneva, Waynesburg and St. Vincent.
Keith’s take: MAC. The balance from top to bottom sets the MAC up well for a handful of wins among the middle teams. I like this concept a lot though, especially in getting W&J and Del Val an early-season challenge, and one a win to pad its playoff resume.

Which team will bounce back from a Week 1 loss?
Ryan’s take: Hope. The Dutchmen had a tough draw in their opener against Illinois Wesleyan, and to be sure, Wisconsin Lutheran is not going to be a pushover. But what we saw in that week was a defense that shut down the Titans for the entire first half, coupled with an offense that was able to move for more than 400 yards. If Hope can keep from tiring late in the game, they should be able to break their nonconference losing streak that dates to 2004.
Pat’s take: Widener. The Pride couldn’t take too much of it in the season-opening shutout loss to Alfred but should have a good shot to bounce back against Thiel. Turning the ball over fewer than six times would be helpful here.
Keith’s take: Monmouth. The ineffectiveness of the Scots’ offense against Wartburg was one of the big surprises of Week 1, and Grinnell won under a new coaching staff. Monmouth beat the Engineers 59-0 last year, and Alex Tanney and Co. will be eager to wash the taste of being dominated from their mouths.

Triple Take: Off and running

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When game time is so near you can almost smell the food from the concession stand and hear the cheerleaders’ voices, and all you want to know is who’s supposed to win, Triple Take arrives.

Let us introduce you to our weekly forecast, a Friday morning staple on the Daily Dose. We bring it to you a day early to celebrate the Sept. 2 kickoffs. In Triple Take, three panelists think aloud, asking some key questions and providing some insight into the national landscape. The D3football.com Top 25 is certainly a factor, but we like to go beyond football’s upper echelon and talk about some games that might otherwise fly under the radar.

The weekly contributors are D3football.com Executive Editor Pat Coleman, Managing Editor and National Columnist Keith McMillan, and Senior Editor and Mid-Atlantic Columnist Ryan Tipps.

Here now are our picks for great matchups, upsets and much more:

Game of the Week.
Ryan’s take: No. 15 Hardin-Simmons at Whitworth. I think that this is going to be the kind of year the Cowboys were supposed to have in 2009. Justin Feaster is back under center, and standout receiver ZaVious Robbins returns, too. Add that to the nearly full slate of returning offensive hardware, and the 10 opponents on the schedule better watch out. To kick things off, HSU goes up against Whitworth, a top-notch Northwest Conference team that prides itself on defense. Notable, too, is that memories of HSU’s second-half comeback in 2009 will certainly be haunting the Pirates.
Keith’s take: Lycoming at Rowan. Just a dozen years too late. It would have been a monster clash if this series had started when both were Eastern powerhouses and Stagg Bowl contenders playing just nine games a season. So what makes it a GOTW in 2010? Urgency. If Hardin-Simmons or UW-Stevens Point or St. Thomas lose one of this week’s sexier matchups, a perennial conference champ awaits in a game that could revive the season. The Warriors and Profs, however, face multiple roadblocks along their AQ path. Rowan is unlikely to get through Montclair State, Cortland State and Kean unscathed, so a non-conference win is crucial.
Pat’s take: No. 18 Willamette at No. 16 UW-Stevens Point. I got an e-mail from one Willamette fan who was sure that if St. Thomas was No. 5, then Willamette must be in the Top 10. If that’s true, they’ll have to prove it the first two weeks. There’s no shame in being No. 18, you know, especially out of 238. Like being No. 9 or so in Division I FBS.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset.
Ryan’s take: No. 22 Mississippi College. Since 2000, the Choctaws hold a 5-4 advantage in the Backyard Brawl rivalry with Millsaps. And like many great rivalries, the emotion of the day can make for some unique outcomes. Both teams are fairly balanced on what they bring back, so even if this isn’t an upset situation, it should be great matchup.
Keith’s take: No. 15 Hardin-Simmons. Not because I don’t think the Cowboys will be good. In December, they might be the last team from Texas standing. But we’ve seen HSU fly to the Pacific Northwest early in the season and take one on the chin more than once. Whitworth is no easy W on any field, and flying to Spokane can’t be much help.
Pat’s take: None. I just can’t say I have a strong feeling about any of these teams losing this week. I would throw a shout-out to St. Norbert opening its new stadium with a home game against No. 5 St. Thomas but if St. Thomas can win handily at Monmouth it should be able to do the same at St. Norbert.

Surprisingly close game.
Ryan’s take: Susquehanna at Moravian. Last year, these two teams were separated by a hefty six wins. But don’t expect Moravian to chuck in another 24-0 loss to its new conferencemate, Susquehanna. This year will certainly be a rebuilding one for the Greyhounds, but expect them to make every effort to take advantage of the five All-Conference players that the Crusaders lost from last season.
Pat’s take: John Carroll at Case Western Reserve. Here’s a backyard brawl without the fancy promotional graphics between these two Cleveland schools which were separated by light-years figuratively over the past four years. But I think the gap will be a lot narrower this time around and Keith and I ended up ranking them very close together in Kickoff. Alright, I promise, last Kickoff sales pitch.
Keith’s take: Bridgewater (Va.) at St. Vincent. The Bearcats, since reviving their program, are just 1-29.  They were outscored by 20 points per game in 2009 and didn’t keep one closer than 13 points. But everything sets up for SVU to make this interesting: They host, the coaching staff came from Bridgewater and knows the Eagles’ style as well as anyone, and most importantly, there are finally seniors who have played four seasons for the Bearcats on the roster.

They’ll be on your radar.
Ryan’s take: Averett. The Cougars are in a nice position to reclaim the conference glory that escaped them after the 2006 season. Since that season, which saw Averett 30 minutes from a playoff berth, they’ve been 0-10, 4-5 and 7-3. This season marks a good opportunity to be at the top of the USA South pack — but that also means opening against the ODAC’s defending champion Hampden-Sydney. A win here would be telling for the rising Averett squad.
Keith’s take: Illinois Wesleyan. I’m as curious about the Titans as any team in the country this year. Just three offensive and four defensive starters return from a playoff team that represented one of Division III’s top half-dozen conferences in the playoffs last year. Is IWU deep enough as a program to stage a repeat? We’ll find out on its visit to Hope, a program many a Midwestern power has cut its teeth on en route to the playoffs.
Pat’s take: Massachuetts Maritime. That’s if Nathan Sherr can come anywhere close to the production he put up at running back last season, where he ran for 525 yards in a little over two games. The Buccaneers open up Thursday night against SUNY-Maritime.

Which 2009 playoff team is going to end up wishing it had a Week 1 bye?
Ryan’s take: No. 17 Monmouth. The Scots should walk away with a win on Saturday, but it will be hard-fought, and they’ll likely have their cage rattled a time or two. The last three times these teams have met, Wartburg has walked away with a trio of wins, including one that sent them to the NCAA Regional Finals. Monmouth has a lot of weapons, but Wartburg is also readied for battle.
Keith’s take: No. 3 Wesley. There are at least four top 25 teams who deserve to be called on the carpet for less-than-aggressive Week 1 scheduling. If you’ll be disappointed if you don’t win by at least 30, then you know who you are. The Wolverines, on the other hand, are likely either going to have their game canceled or are going to have to travel over the Chesapeake Bay Bridge in the remnants of a hurricane to get drenched in a game they could very well lose. A bye sounds better than either of those options.
Pat’s take: No. 8 Wittenberg. Sorry if this comes off as a little harsh, but opening against an 0-10 team playing its first game under a new coach might be good prep for playing Kenyon, Hiram and Oberlin, but not for playing Wabash or a playoff team. Plus, it will end up being a big drag on their strength of schedule. And yes, I was already thinking about that in July.

Which conference will have the most impressive non-conference win?
Ryan’s take: The Centennial, thanks to Ursinus. Albright certainly took a couple of hits in the skill positions, but it’s hard to erase their 2009 Cinderella story from people’s memories. Conquering them would give Ursinus a morale boost and a lot of momentum early on, even if Albright’s star doesn’t wind up burning as brightly this year.
Keith’s take: The Heartland, by Mount St. Joseph. Opening with a win against a team that changed coaches mid-summer following a 1-9 season isn’t generally the stuff of legends. But for the HCAC, a conference still clamoring for respect, a win against Wilmington is a win against a team from a D-III power conference in the OAC.
Pat’s take: The ODAC, with Hampden-Sydney. I think the Tigers are a little stronger than we give them credit for entering their opener with Averett. How many times has a Marty Favret offense plugged in another quarterback and been off to the races? I remember worrying about a Favret offense once. That was 1998, however.

Whose long losing streak is most likely to end?
Ryan’s take: Bluffton’s. Sure the Beavers are riding a 17-game losing streak and coming off a year where they really couldn’t get much offensive momentum going — but in that regard, it’s easy to wonder whether opponent Kalamazoo (sans Brandon Luczak) will either. To top it off, Kalamazoo was the last team that Bluffton beat, dating to 2008.
Keith’s take: Puget Sound’s. The Loggers haven’t won since 2008, and they’ll trot out a new coach (Jeff Thomas) and the new energy that usually accompanies one. Energy alone doesn’t win games, but established programs playing debuting expansion teams — Pacific, in this case — usually do.
Pat’s take: Mass-Dartmouth’s. How Mass-Dartmouth went from 6-4 to 0-10 is a bit of a surprise. I don’t think they go back to 6-4 or even 4-6, but a home game to open against Fitchburg State is an opportunity to end an 11-game losing streak.