post

Quick Hits: Our crew predicts the second round

The story goes, one day on a long ride to a playoff game at Thiel (which tells you how long ago this happened), Pat and Keith decided to pass the time by guessing not just the winner of each second-round playoff game, but the score. And there was born the expectations game: Do we expect a close game? A high-scoring game? A blowout? Does everyone agree on who will win? Those are the factors worth looking at.

Keith McMillan, Ryan Tipps, Pat Coleman, Adam Turer, Frank Rossi and Greg Thomas each take their guesses at scores for each first-round game. Plus, we have Logan Hansen’s odds to advance.

— Pat Coleman (d3photography.com photo)

Mary Hardin-Baylor bracket
Keith’s take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 45, Berry 14
Ryan’s take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 34, Berry 14
Pat’s take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 35, Berry 6
Adam’s take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 52, Berry 17
Frank’s take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 40, Berry 10
Greg’s take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 40, Berry 7
Hansen odds to advance: Mary Hardin-Baylor, 99%
Consensus:
Varying levels of high scores to low scores.
Keith’s take: St. John’s 49, Whitworth 21
Ryan’s take: St. John’s 38, Whitworth 13
Pat’s take: St. John’s 45, Whitworth 17
Adam’s take: St. John’s 38, Whitworth 13
Frank’s take: St. John’s 27, Whitworth 14
Greg’s take: St. John’s 49, Whitworth 21
Hansen odds to advance: St. John’s, 93%
Consensus:
St. John’s offense will be in good shape.

 

UW-Whitewater bracket
Keith’s take: UW-Whitewater 31, St. Norbert 3
Ryan’s take: UW-Whitewater 45, St. Norbert 7
Pat’s take: UW-Whitewater 42, St. Norbert 9
Adam’s take: UW-Whitewater 40, St. Norbert 20
Frank’s take: UW-Whitewater 41, St. Norbert 13
Greg’s take: UW-Whitewater 31, St. Norbert 0
Hansen odds to advance: UW-Whitewater, 96%
Consensus:
One upset is all the Green Knights get.
Keith’s take: Bethel 25, North Central 22
Ryan’s take: North Central 27, Bethel 24
Pat’s take: North Central 24, Bethel 16
Adam’s take: North Central 32, Bethel 29
Frank’s take: Bethel 27, North Central 24
Greg’s take: Bethel 28, North Central 24
Hansen odds to advance: North Central, 63%
Consensus:
Nobody really has any idea who will win this one.

 

Mount Union bracket
Keith’s take: Mount Union 38, Centre 17
Ryan’s take: Mount Union 38, Centre 20
Pat’s take: Mount Union 38, Centre 10
Adam’s take: Mount Union 45, Centre 24
Frank’s take: Mount Union 47, Centre 17
Greg’s take: Mount Union 45, Centre 10
Hansen odds to advance: Mount Union, 96%
Consensus:
The consensus matches the odds.
Keith’s take: Muhlenberg 17, Randolph-Macon 16
Ryan’s take: Muhlenberg 28, Randolph-Macon 23
Pat’s take: Randolph-Macon 17, Muhlenberg 16
Adam’s take: Muhlenberg 24, Randolph-Macon 21
Frank’s take: Muhlenberg 31, Randolph-Macon 20
Greg’s take: Muhlenberg 27, Randolph-Macon 21
Hansen odds to advance: Muhlenberg, 68%
Consensus:
A non-unanimous pick of Muhlenberg in a low-scoring, close game.

 

Brockport bracket
Keith’s take: Brockport 35, RPI 21
Ryan’s take: Brockport 21, RPI 13
Pat’s take: Brockport 28, RPI 16
Adam’s take: Brockport 31, RPI 10
Frank’s take: Brockport 37, RPI 17
Greg’s take: Brockport 35, RPI 17
Hansen odds to advance: Brockport, 95%
Consensus:
 Closer than last week.
Keith’s take: Frostburg St. 42, Johns Hopkins 28
Ryan’s take: Johns Hopkins 42, Frostburg St. 38
Pat’s take: Johns Hopkins 31, Frostburg St. 30
Adam’s take: Frostburg St. 48, JHU 45 (OT)
Frank’s take: Frostburg St. 17, Johns Hopkins 14
Greg’s take: Frostburg St. 38, Johns Hopkins 35
Hansen odds to advance: Johns Hopkins, 58%
Consensus:
All over the map — high scoring, low scoring, close game, two-touchdown game.

We invite you to add your predictions in the comments below, or tweet at us at @D3Keith, @NewsTipps and @d3football. Download the Around the Nation podcast on Mondays, where Pat and Keith review the picks and the highlights from the weekend’s playoff games.

post

Quick Hits: Predicting the first-round scores

The story goes, one day on a long ride to a playoff game at Thiel (which tells you how long ago this happened), Pat and Keith decided to pass the time by guessing not just the winner of each first-round playoff game, but the score. And there was born the expectations game: Do we expect a close game? A high-scoring game? A blowout? Does everyone agree on who will win? Those are the factors worth looking at.

Keith McMillan, Ryan Tipps, Pat Coleman, Adam Turer, Frank Rossi and Greg Thomas each take their guesses at scores for each first-round game. Plus, we have Logan Hansen’s odds to advance and at the bottom, a widget you can manipulate to get details on all 32 teams and compare teams head-to-head in a multitude of categories.

— Pat Coleman (d3photography.com photo)

Mary Hardin-Baylor bracket
Keith’s take: UMHB 34, Hardin-Simmons 10
Ryan’s take: UMHB 31, Hardin-Simmons 14
Pat’s take: UMHB 34, Hardin-Simmons 7
Adam’s take: UMHB 38, Hardin-Simmons 17
Frank’s take: UMHB 44, Hardin-Simmons 10
Greg’s take: UMHB 35, Hardin-Simmons 10
Hansen odds to advance: UMHB, 93.7%
Consensus:
Strong consensus for a Mary Hardin-Baylor win, of around five scores to two.
Keith’s take: Berry 34, Maryville 10
Ryan’s take: Berry 34, Maryville 13
Pat’s take: Berry 35, Maryville 10
Adam’s take: Berry 31, Maryville 13
Frank’s take: Berry 37, Maryville 30
Greg’s take: Berry 28, Maryville 20
Hansen odds to advance: Berry, 70.8%
Consensus:
The first meeting was 38-3 and the second meeting isn’t expected to be much different.
Keith’s take: St. John’s 56, Martin Luther 0
Ryan’s take: St. John’s 52, Martin Luther 7
Pat’s take: St. John’s 62, Martin Luther 8
Adam’s take: St. John’s 63, Martin Luther 0
Frank’s take: St. John’s 54, Martin Luther 7
Greg’s take: St. John’s 58, Martin Luther 7
Hansen odds to advance: St. John’s, 100.0%
Consensus:
 St. John’s in a runaway.
Keith’s take: Whitworth 21, C-M-S 17
Ryan’s take: Whitworth 45, C-M-S 6
Pat’s take: Whitworth 24, C-M-S 6
Adam’s take: Whitworth 35, C-M-S 3
Frank’s take: Whitworth 49, C-M-S 14
Greg’s take: Whitworth 31, C-M-S 10
Hansen odds to advance: Whitworth, 92.1%
Consensus:
Wide range of scores by which Whitworth is expected to advance.
UW-Whitewater bracket
Keith’s take: UW-Whitewater 49, Eureka 6
Ryan’s take: UW-Whitewater 52, Eureka 10
Pat’s take: UW-Whitewater 58, Eureka 12
Adam’s take: UW-Whitewater 42, Eureka 6
Frank’s take: UW-Whitewater 41, Eureka 3
Greg’s take: UW-Whitewater 48, Eureka 7
Hansen odds to advance: UW-Whitewater, 99.9%
Consensus:
Whitewater by a lot.
Keith’s take: Trine 27, St. Norbert 17
Ryan’s take: St. Norbert 24, Trine 17
Pat’s take: Trine 42, St. Norbert 16
Adam’s take: St. Norbert 20, Trine 17
Frank’s take: Trine 37, St. Norbert 27
Greg’s take: Trine 28, St. Norbert 27
Hansen odds to advance: Trine, 70.5%
Consensus:
A split decision favoring Trine, but by varying margins.
Keith’s take: North Central 35, Hanover 14
Ryan’s take: North Central 48, Hanover 7
Pat’s take: North Central 51, Hanover 14
Adam’s take: North Central 56, Hanover 13
Frank’s take: North Central 47, Hanover 10
Greg’s take: North Central 40, Hanover 17
Hansen odds to advance: North Central, 98.3%
Consensus:
North Central advancing easily.
Keith’s take: Bethel 28, Wartburg 17
Ryan’s take: Bethel 31, Wartburg 23
Pat’s take: Wartburg 24, Bethel 13
Adam’s take: Bethel 28, Wartburg 17
Frank’s take: Wartburg 27, Bethel 24
Greg’s take: Wartburg 17, Bethel 14
Hansen odds to advance: Bethel, 67.2%
Consensus:
A pure 50-50 split decision which is likely headed for a recount.
Mount Union bracket
Keith’s take: Mount Union 49, Denison 21
Ryan’s take: Mount Union 63, Denison 7
Pat’s take: Mount Union 28, Denison 10
Adam’s take: Mount Union 49, Denison 20
Frank’s take: Mount Union 67, Denison 3
Greg’s take: Mount Union 42, Denison 14
Hansen odds to advance: Mount Union, 98.7%
Consensus:
Mount Union wins in a day which is a struggle for the Denison offense.
Keith’s take: Centre 28, W&J 27
Ryan’s take: Centre 38, W&J 31
Pat’s take: W&J 34, Centre 24
Adam’s take: Centre 31, W&J 24
Frank’s take: Centre 37, W&J 34
Greg’s take: Centre 28, W&J 24
Hansen odds to advance: Centre, 76.7%
Consensus:
Non-unanimous consensus that Centre wins one of the best games of the day.
Keith’s take: John Carroll 41, Randolph-Macon 17
Ryan’s take: John Carroll 49, Randolph-Macon 13
Pat’s take: John Carroll 42, Randolph-Macon 14
Adam’s take: John Carroll 42, Randolph-Macon 16
Frank’s take: John Carroll 40, Randolph-Macon 13
Greg’s take: John Carroll 35, Randolph-Macon 17
Hansen odds to advance: John Carroll, 85.4%
Consensus:
John Carroll winning easily.
Keith: Muhlenberg 23, Delaware Valley 20
Ryan: Muhlenberg 28, Delaware Valley 27
Pat: Muhlenberg 34, Delaware Valley 17
Adam: Muhlenberg 35, Delaware Valley 32
Frank: Muhlenberg 34, Delaware Valley 31
Greg: Muhlenberg 31, Delaware Valley 28
Hansen odds to advance: Muhlenberg, 56.0%, the lowest odds of any predicted winner.
Consensus:
Unanimous picks of road teams are rare, but note that five of the six pick margins of three or less.
Brockport bracket
Keith’s take: Brockport 35, Framingham St. 7
Ryan’s take: Brockport 49, Framingham St. 10
Pat’s take: Brockport 48, Framingham St. 10
Adam’s take: Brockport 38, Framingham St. 6
Frank’s take: Brockport 42, Framingham St. 10
Greg’s take: Brockport 42, Framingham St. 13
Hansen odds to advance: Brockport, 97.7%
Consensus:
Brockport moving on in the style of their choosing.
Keith’s take: Husson 10, RPI 9
Ryan’s take: RPI 23, Husson 21
Pat’s take: RPI 30, Husson 17
Adam’s take: RPI 24, Husson 20
Frank’s take: RPI 30, Husson 27
Greg’s take: RPI 20, Husson 10
Hansen odds to advance: RPI, 62.6%
Consensus:
RPI in a non-unanimous game that’s generally expected to be close.
Keith’s take: Frostburg St. 42, Western N.E. 14
Ryan’s take: Frostburg St. 42, Western N.E. 10
Pat’s take: Frostburg St. 45, Western N.E. 10
Adam’s take: Frostburg St. 45, Western N.E. 10
Frank’s take: Frostburg St. 44, Western N.E. 14
Greg’s take: Frostburg St. 38, Western N.E. 7
Hansen odds to advance: Frostburg State, 92.4%
Consensus:
Frostburg advancing with ease.
Keith’s take: Johns Hopkins 42, MIT 10
Ryan’s take: Johns Hopkins 45, MIT 7
Pat’s take: Johns Hopkins 45, MIT 16
Adam’s take: Johns Hopkins 43, MIT 14
Frank’s take: Johns Hopkins 35, MIT 17
Greg’s take: Johns Hopkins 38, MIT 10
Hansen odds to advance: Johns Hopkins, 96.8%
Consensus:
 Johns Hopkins winning the brainiac bowl.

We invite you to add your predictions in the comments below, or tweet at us at @D3Keith, @NewsTipps, @d3football, @adamturer, @frankrossi and @wallywabash. Download the Around the Nation podcast on Mondays, where Pat and Keith review the picks and the highlights from the weekend’s playoff games.

post

Quick Hits: All the marbles

This is it — the last regular-season weekend of the season. Maybe there’s snow on the ground where you are. Maybe you have a bitter rival coming to town and an epic tailgate with old friends — well, that’s what Quick Hits is like for us, too. Our regular crew is Keith McMillan, Ryan Tipps, Pat Coleman, Adam Turer and Frank Rossi. Our sixth spot each week goes to a guest prognosticator, and this week’s is Greg Thomas, our bracketology guru. He’ll be joining us through the playoffs as well, when Quick Hits shifts to predicting the final score of each game.
Photo: File photo from 2017 Shoes game, by Mick Neal, RPI athletics

— Pat Coleman

What will be the Week 11 Game of the Week?

keith-mcmillan-150x200
Keith’s take: No. 25 Baldwin Wallace at No. 8 John Carroll/No. 9 St. Thomas at No. 22 Bethel. Both games match 8-1 teams; winners should be first at-large teams in field, losers’ seasons are over.
ryan-tipps-150x200
Ryan’s take: Thomas More at No. 4 St. John’s. After the way their season began, the Saints should be stoked they’re still so relevant to the conversation.
Pat Coleman
Pat’s take: No. 25 Baldwin Wallace at No. 8 John Carroll. Not only does it have all the playoff implications, but it’s a bona fide local rivalry as well.
Adam Turer
Adam’s take: No. 9 St. Thomas at No. 22 Bethel. A rivalry game with a playoff berth at stake. Nothing better in Week 11.
Frank Rossi
Frank’s take: Salisbury at No. 6 Frostburg State. It’s the NJAC championship, and a Pool C bid could be taken from a bubble team if Salisbury wins. Hear more about it in today’s ATN Gameday Podcast.
Guest
Greg’s take: St. Thomas at Bethel. There are many good games, but this is a Top 25 showdown and a de facto elimination game between two teams that have the chops to make deep tournament runs.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to get upset?

keith-mcmillan-150x200
Keith’s take: No. 6 Frostburg State. Not because the Bobcats are vulnerable so much as their Regents Cup opponent, 8-1 Salisbury, has had a great defense and running game all year.
ryan-tipps-150x200
Ryan’s take: No. 11 Berry. The Vikings may be sailing high right now, but Trinity has already shown this year that they can hold their own against tough competition.
Pat Coleman
Pat’s take: No. 24 Linfield. Wildcats’ scare last week might give Pacific something on tape to work with.
Adam Turer
Adam’s take: No. 14 RPI. The resurgence of the Dutchmen has revitalized the Shoes rivalry. The Engineers have already clinched the LL title. Union could pull off the upset.
Frank Rossi
Frank’s take: No. 11 Berry. Berry has won the SAA already, so how the Vikings will approach the game at Trinity (Texas) will be interesting. Remember, Trinity challenged HSU earlier this season.
Guest
Greg’s take: No. 14 RPI. This game is actually pretty even on paper and I believe QH is contractually obligated to have one panelist pick RPI to be upset.

Which rivalry game will have the closest score?

keith-mcmillan-150x200
Keith’s take: Dutchman Shoes. Almost all of them look like tight matchups. Union and RPI have already played one-point games; what’s one more?
ryan-tipps-150x200
Ryan’s take: The Secretaries Cup. Coast Guard’s resurgence this year has added some new life to the annual game against Merchant Marine — and could shake up the NEWMAC significantly.
Pat Coleman
Pat’s take: The Game. It wouldn’t be a “Game” between Randolph-Macon and Hampden-Sydney if it didn’t have some grinding and a little bitterness to boot.
Adam Turer
Adam’s take: Monon Bell. The last two meetings were decided by a total of four points. DePauw will keep it close against No. 20 Wabash, trying to avoid its first losing season since 2013.
Frank Rossi
Frank’s take: Dutchman Shoes. RPI has won more with great defense in close games this year. I think this game lines up the same way.
Guest
Greg’s take: Cortaca Jug. This game looks like a low scoring grinder to me with a single point keeping the winner’s tournament hopes alive into Selection Sunday.

Which game are you following that nobody else on this panel is following?

keith-mcmillan-150x200
Keith’s take: Alvernia at UNE. Both first-year programs have a win, but the Wolves haven’t scored since a garbage-time TD Oct. 13, and the Nor’Easters have been outscored by 117 since their win a week earlier.
ryan-tipps-150x200
Ryan’s take: N.C. Wesleyan at Maryville. Even with a loss, the Scots are in the playoffs, but if they do lose, it’s worth noting that Google Maps has them at 485 miles from Alliance, Ohio.
Pat Coleman
Pat’s take: Maine Maritime at Catholic. Just to hope that the alma mater doesn’t finish 0-10 this year. Go Cards!
Adam Turer
Adam’s take: Shenandoah at Washington & Lee. I doubt anyone else is interested to see if my alma mater can win at least six games for the fourth straight year, a feat not accomplished since back when Garret LeRose and I were playing for the Generals.
Frank Rossi
Frank’s take: Coast Guard at Merchant Marine. More than 600 votes determined that I’d attend the Secretaries Cup Game between these two service academies. The Mariners even have a potential playoff bid still alive.
Guest
Greg’s take: Berry at Trinity (Texas).Berry has already clinched and Trinity isn’t in the playoff picture but a Berry loss here could significantly impact the playoff fortunes of Centre, Hardin-Simmons, and Muhlenberg. All the pieces matter.

Which team plays its way in or out of a home playoff game?

keith-mcmillan-150x200
Keith’s take: North Central, in. Based on its result against Millikin, NCC has the widest range of outcomes; winnable home game in Round 1 or season over. I’ll guess the former.
ryan-tipps-150x200
Ryan’s take: Baldwin Wallace, out. I’m guessing that the matchup with JCU is someone’s game of the week, and I think BW will be out and JCU a shoo-in for Pool C after Saturday.
Pat Coleman
Pat’s take: St. Thomas, in. Despite the fact that Bethel looked better against St. John’s, the Royals don’t have Jackson Erdmann at QB to test Tommie DBs.
Adam Turer
Adam’s take: No. 25 Baldwin Wallace. With a win over John Carroll, the Yellow Jackets would get in via Pool C and likely host a first round game. A loss to JCU not only means no home game, but likely no playoff appearance at all.
Frank Rossi
Frank’s take: Frostburg State. If the Bobcats lose, they could still win a Pool C bid but drop below fourth in the East because of a lack of regionally ranked opponents in their profile.
Guest
Greg’s take: John Carroll. The Streaks are a lock for an at-large bid and a home game with a win against Baldwin Wallace. A loss, and the Streaks are most likely done for 2018.

Pick a random Week 11 game and give it a trophy name.

keith-mcmillan-150x200
Keith’s take: Tufts at Middlebury. Most of the season-ending games in the NESCAC are longstanding rivalries. This is what … the Tuftlebury Classic?
ryan-tipps-150x200
Ryan’s take: Olivet at Albion. The Six-Letter Shuffle — or — The MIAA Founder’s Faceoff.
Pat Coleman
Pat’s take: Alma at Finlandia, for the 445 Mile Marker Trophy. Finlandia is in the same state as almost everyone else in the MIAA, but it’s hideously far. Alma is its closest MIAA opponent, at 445 miles.
Adam Turer
Adam’s take: Pacific at No. 24 Linfield. The Mass Hysteria Bowl. Dogs and cats living together! No human sacrifice, please. (Yes, I know Boxer the mascot isn’t technically a dog.)
Frank Rossi
Frank’s take: Alvernia at University of New England, for The 2018 Debut Supremacy Cup.
Guest
Greg’s take: Benedictine vs. Concordia-Chicago, for the I-88 Trophy.The Chicagoland rivals square off for a trophy which doesn’t actually exist yet as it is perpetually under construction.

We invite you to add your predictions in the comments below. Download the Around the Nation podcast on Fridays, where Pat and Keith review the Quick Hits that were prescient, and the Quick Misses that were terribly off base.