Quick Hits’ take on second-round scores

Posted on November 24, 2017 by Pat Coleman

After an entertaining, but difficult-to-predict first round, our crew is back to give it another shot. So, we look at all eight second-round games and predict the final score. Do we expect a close game? A high-scoring game? A blowout? Does everyone agree on who will win? Those are the factors worth looking at.

Keith McMillan, Ryan Tipps, Pat Coleman, Adam Turer, Frank Rossi and Greg Thomas each take their crack at it this week and every week from here to Salem.

— Pat Coleman (d3photography.com photo)

UW-Oshkosh bracket
Keith’s take: UW-Oshkosh 35, North Central 31 Ryan’s take: North Central 24, UW-Oshkosh 23 Pat’s take: UW-Oshkosh 21, North Central 13	Adam’s take: UW-Oshkosh 24, North Central 20 Frank’s take: UW-Oshkosh 24, North Central 14 Greg’s take: UW-Oshkosh 27, North Central 13
Hansen odds to advance: UW-Oshkosh, 82%. Consensus: A competitive, low-scoring game, but generally with the home team on top.
Keith’s take: Wartburg 28, Trine 27 Ryan’s take: Wartburg 31, Trine 27 Pat’s take: Wartburg 35, Trine 24	Adam’s take: Trine 38, Wartburg 30 Frank’s take: Trine 30, Wartburg 27 Greg’s take: Trine 36, Wartburg 35
Hansen odds to advance: Wartburg, 51% Consensus: Points will be scored. Someone will win. Even the Wartburg grad’s algorithm has a toss-up.

Mount Union bracket
Keith’s take: Mount Union 35, Case 14 Ryan’s take: Mount Union 41, Case 14 Pat’s take: Mount Union 42, Case 17	Adam’s take: Mount Union 38, Case 17 Frank’s take: Mount Union 37, Case 10 Greg’s take: Mount Union 49, Case 10
Hansen odds to advance: Mount Union, 94%. Consensus: Case will score two or three times.
Keith’s take: Frostburg State 31, W&J 29 Ryan’s take: Frostburg State 34, W&J 17 Pat’s take: Frostburg State 21, W&J 17	Adam’s take: Frostburg State 27, W&J 24 Frank’s take: Frostburg State 27, W&J 20 Greg’s take: Frostburg State 28, W&J 24
Hansen odds to advance: Frostburg State, 56%. Consensus: Quiet confidence in Frostburg State, with most by seven or fewer points.

Mary Hardin-Baylor bracket
Keith’s take: UMHB 27, Linfield 17 Ryan’s take: UMHB 23, Linfield 14 Pat’s take: UMHB 20, Linfield 10	Adam’s take: UMHB 31, Linfield 24 Frank’s take: UMHB 24, Linfield 10 Greg’s take: UMHB 24, Linfield 7
Hansen odds to advance: Mary Hardin-Baylor, 82%. Consensus: The defending champs, in a generally low-scoring game.
Keith’s take: St. Thomas 34, Berry 14 Ryan’s take: St. Thomas 38, Berry 17 Pat’s take: St. Thomas 42, Berry 20	Adam’s take: St. Thomas 47, Berry 20 Frank’s take: St. Thomas 41, Berry 27 Greg’s take: St. Thomas 34, Berry 17
Hansen odds to advance: St. Thomas, 99+%. Consensus: St. Thomas, although Berry could score some points.

Delaware Valley bracket
Keith’s take: Delaware Valley 22, Husson 9 Ryan’s take: Delaware Valley 31, Husson 10 Pat’s take: Delaware Valley 24, Husson 15	Adam’s take: Delaware Valley 35, Husson 14 Frank’s take: Delaware Valley 31, Husson 17 Greg’s take: Delaware Valley 38, Husson 14
Hansen odds to advance: Delaware Valley, 88%. Consensus: Delaware Valley, although it could be close.
Keith’s take: Brockport 28, Wesley 17 Ryan’s take: Brockport 27, Wesley 24 Pat’s take: Brockport 31, Wesley 27	Adam’s take: Wesley 42, Brockport 38 Frank’s take: Brockport 28, Wesley 27 Greg’s take: Wesley 28, Brockport 27
Hansen odds to advance: Brockport, 67%. Consensus: Not exactly unanimous.

We invite you to add your predictions in the comments below, or tweet at us at @D3Keith, @NewsTipps and @d3football. Download the Around the Nation podcast on Mondays, where Pat and Keith review the picks and the highlights from the second round.

ATN Podcast 185: Fun first round, for starters

Posted on November 20, 2017 by Pat Coleman

Yes, two top 10 teams are eliminated who should have had a better chance to advance into the second round, and it’s crazy that we have to wait until Sundays to find out who is hosting each round of the playoffs, but the stuff that happened on the field was pretty entertaining in the first round of the 2017 Division III playoffs. Pat and Keith talk about all 16 games, plus the surprise players who did and did not play on Saturday.

This week, Fanraise is the sponsor of the D3football.com Around the Nation Podcast. Find out more at Thefanraise.com.

Pat and Keith hand out game balls, look at each first-round game, get coaches’ reactions on two of the biggest play calls of the day and have postgame audio from each quadrant of the bracket in this week’s D3football.com Around the Nation Podcast.

The D3football.com Around the Nation Podcast is a regular conversation between Pat Coleman and Keith McMillan and guests covering the wide range of Division III football.

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North Central photo by Steve Woltmann, W&J photo by Martin Santek photography; Linfield, Brockport athletics photos
You can subscribe to the Around the Nation Podcast in iTunes. You can also get this and any of our future Around the Nation podcasts automatically by subscribing to this RSS feed: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3football/?feed=podcast

Quick Hits predicts the first round’s scores

Posted on November 17, 2017 by Pat Coleman

The story goes, one day on a long ride to a playoff game at Thiel (which tells you how long ago this happened), Pat and Keith decided to pass the time by guessing not just the winner of each first-round playoff game, but the score. And there was born the expectations game: Do we expect a close game? A high-scoring game? A blowout? Does everyone agree on who will win? Those are the factors worth looking at.

Keith McMillan, Ryan Tipps, Pat Coleman, Adam Turer, Frank Rossi and Greg Thomas each take their guesses at scores for each first-round game. We also looped in the Hansen Ratings, updated with playoff experience as a factor, for anther objective take. The algorithm takes into account both home-field advantage and playoff experience, so a game such as Hardin-Simmons and Linfield, between teams with identical team ratings, ends up with Linfield given a 65 percent chance to win.

— Pat Coleman (Linfield athletics photo)

UW-Oshkosh bracket
Keith’s take: UW-Oshkosh 56, Lakeland 21 Ryan’s take: UW-Oshkosh 49, Lakeland 13 Pat’s take: UW-Oshkosh 47, Lakeland 13	Adam’s take: UW-Oshkosh 52, Lakeland 7 Frank’s take: UW-Oshkosh 34, Lakeland 6 Greg’s take: UW-Oshkosh 52, Lakeland 14
Hansen odds to advance: UW-Oshkosh, 99%. Consensus: UW-Oshkosh in a walk, though Lakeland could score a few points.
Keith’s take: North Central 22, St. John’s 21 Ryan’s take: North Central 27, St. John’s 23 Pat’s take: North Central 31, St. John’s 28	Adam’s take: North Central 10, St. John’s 7 Frank’s take: St. John’s 21, North Central 20 Greg’s take: North Central 24, St. John’s 23
Hansen odds to advance: St. John’s, 58%. Consensus: North Central, in a close game, and a split decision.
Keith’s take: Wartburg 38, Franklin 24 Ryan’s take: Wartburg 30, Franklin 27 Pat’s take: Wartburg 45, Franklin 31	Adam’s take: Wartburg 35, Franklin 27 Frank’s take: Wartburg 44, Franklin 31 Greg’s take: Wartburg 38, Franklin 28
Hansen odds to advance: Wartburg, 79%. Consensus: Wartburg the consensus winner, though everyone respect’s Franklin’s ability to score.
Keith’s take: Trine 19, Monmouth 16 Ryan’s take: Monmouth 31, Trine 20 Pat’s take: Monmouth 31, Trine 28	Adam’s take: Trine 17, Monmouth 13 Frank’s take: Trine 48, Monmouth 40 Greg’s take: Trine 38, Monmouth 28
Hansen odds to advance: Trine, 58%. Consensus: Wide variety of opinions. Two Trine slugfest wins, two Trine defensive battle wins, two Monmouth wins.

Mount Union bracket
Keith’s take: Mount Union 56, Wash. & Lee 14 Ryan’s take: Mount Union 51, Wash. & Lee 7 Pat’s take: Mount Union 48, Wash. & Lee 10	Adam’s take: Mount Union 49, Wash. & Lee 20 Frank’s take: Mount Union 60, Wash. & Lee 10 Greg’s take: Mount Union 56, Wash. & Lee 7
Hansen odds to advance: Mount Union, 99%. Consensus: Mount Union, in a win that a No. 1 seed would be satisfied with.
Keith’s take: Illinois Wesleyan 35, Case 13 Ryan’s take: Illinois Wesleyan 31, Case 21 Pat’s take: Illinois Wesleyan 35, Case 17	Adam’s take: Illinois Wesleyan 21, Case 16 Frank’s take: Case 31, Illinois Wesleyan 30 Greg’s take: Illinois Wesleyan 28, Case 10
Hansen odds to advance: Illinois Wesleyan, 61%. Consensus: IWU generally winning handily, with one outlier.
Keith’s take: W&J 42, Johns Hopkins 30 Ryan’s take: Johns Hopkins 35, W&J 34 Pat’s take: Johns Hopkins 28, W&J 24	Adam’s take: Johns Hopkins 38, W&J 34 Frank’s take: Johns Hopkins 35, W&J 28 Greg’s take: Johns Hopkins 27, W&J 24
Hansen odds to advance: Johns Hopkins, 68%. Consensus: Wow. Consensus is the road team. But consensus is also an exciting game.
Keith’s take: Wittenberg 17, Frostburg State 14 Ryan’s take: Frostburg State 27, Wittenberg 24 Pat’s take: Wittenberg 17, Frostburg State 15	Adam’s take: Wittenberg 30, Frostburg State 24 Frank’s take: Frostburg State 27, Wittenberg 24 Greg’s take: Wittenberg 14, Frostburg State 10
Hansen odds to advance: Wittenberg, 59%. Consensus: Generally low-scoring, all around, and generally with Wittenberg by a field goal or less.

Mary Hardin-Baylor bracket
Keith’s take: UMHB 40, Chapman 20 Ryan’s take: UMHB 48, Chapman 10 Pat’s take: UMHB 42, Chapman 17	Adam’s take: UMHB 58, Chapman 10 Frank’s take: UMHB 37, Chapman 10 Greg’s take: UMHB 48, Chapman 7
Hansen odds to advance: Mary Hardin-Baylor, 98%. Consensus: The defending champs, by a lot.
Keith’s take: Hardin-Simmons 14, Linfield 13 Ryan’s take: Hardin-Simmons 27, Linfield 14 Pat’s take: Hardin-Simmons 24, Linfield 19	Adam’s take: Hardin-Simmons 21, Linfield 17 Frank’s take: Linfield 14, Hardin-Simmons 10 Greg’s take: Hardin-Simmons 24, Linfield 10
Hansen odds to advance: Linfield, 65%. Consensus: HSU favored on the road, with Linfield kicking an undetermined number of field goa.s.
Keith’s take: St. Thomas 63, Eureka 0 Ryan’s take: St. Thomas 58, Eureka 7 Pat’s take: St. Thomas 56, Eureka 6	Adam’s take: St. Thomas 63, Eureka 13 Frank’s take: St. Thomas 51, Eureka 13 Greg’s take: St. Thomas 63, Eureka 0
Hansen odds to advance: St. Thomas, > 99%. Consensus: Tommies. Not in a mood to break scoring records.
Keith’s take: Berry 28, Huntingdon 24 Ryan’s take: Berry 35, Huntingdon 28 Pat’s take: Berry 24, Huntingdon 21	Adam’s take: Berry 27, Huntingdon 24 Frank’s take: Huntingdon 34, Berry 28 Greg’s take: Berry 28, Huntingdon 17
Hansen odds to advance: Huntingdon, 57%. Consensus: Berry. Mostly. Except for the one usual outlier.

Delaware Valley bracket
Keith’s take: Delaware Valley 38, Western NE 20 Ryan’s take: Delaware Valley 49, Western NE 17 Pat’s take: Delaware Valley 31, Western NE 10	Adam’s take: Delaware Valley 35, Western NE 14 Frank’s take: Delaware Valley 30, Western NE 21 Greg’s take: Delaware Valley 33, Western NE 13
Hansen odds to advance: Delaware Valley, 95% Consensus: Delaware Valley, by a range of points but all by multiple scores.
Keith’s take: Springfield 42, Husson 28 Ryan’s take: Springfield 38, Husson 35 Pat’s take: Springfield 45, Husson 31	Adam’s take: Springfield 38, Husson 24 Frank’s take: Springfield 42, Husson 20 Greg’s take: Springfield 42, Husson 21
Hansen odds to advance: Springfield, 83% Consensus: Springfield, generally comfortable, generally in a high-scoring game.
Keith’s take: Brockport 39, Plymouth State 13 Ryan’s take: Brockport 35, Plymouth State 10 Pat’s take: Brockport 24, Plymouth State 7	Adam’s take: Brockport 28, Plymouth State 20 Frank’s take: Brockport 27, Plymouth State 7 Greg’s take: Brockport 24, Plymouth State 7
Hansen odds to advance: Brockport, 99% Consensus: Brockport, generally comfortably, generally in a low-scoring game.
Keith’s take: Wesley 27, RPI 10 Ryan’s take: Wesley 38, RPI 6 Pat’s take: Wesley 38, RPI 14	Adam’s take: Wesley 41, RPI 12 Frank’s take: Wesley 37, RPI 17 Greg’s take: Wesley 38, RPI 10
Hansen odds to advance: Wesley, 91% Consensus: Wesley makes it final: No upsets expected in this bracket.

Here’s more data from Hansen Ratings. Select any two playoff teams to see how they would compare in a real or hypothetical matchup

We invite you to add your predictions in the comments below, or tweet at @d3football. Download the Around the Nation podcast on Mondays, where Pat and Keith review the picks and the highlights from the first round.