Quick Hits predicts the first round’s scores

Posted on November 17, 2017 by Pat Coleman

The story goes, one day on a long ride to a playoff game at Thiel (which tells you how long ago this happened), Pat and Keith decided to pass the time by guessing not just the winner of each first-round playoff game, but the score. And there was born the expectations game: Do we expect a close game? A high-scoring game? A blowout? Does everyone agree on who will win? Those are the factors worth looking at.

Keith McMillan, Ryan Tipps, Pat Coleman, Adam Turer, Frank Rossi and Greg Thomas each take their guesses at scores for each first-round game. We also looped in the Hansen Ratings, updated with playoff experience as a factor, for anther objective take. The algorithm takes into account both home-field advantage and playoff experience, so a game such as Hardin-Simmons and Linfield, between teams with identical team ratings, ends up with Linfield given a 65 percent chance to win.

— Pat Coleman (Linfield athletics photo)

UW-Oshkosh bracket
Keith’s take: UW-Oshkosh 56, Lakeland 21 Ryan’s take: UW-Oshkosh 49, Lakeland 13 Pat’s take: UW-Oshkosh 47, Lakeland 13	Adam’s take: UW-Oshkosh 52, Lakeland 7 Frank’s take: UW-Oshkosh 34, Lakeland 6 Greg’s take: UW-Oshkosh 52, Lakeland 14
Hansen odds to advance: UW-Oshkosh, 99%. Consensus: UW-Oshkosh in a walk, though Lakeland could score a few points.
Keith’s take: North Central 22, St. John’s 21 Ryan’s take: North Central 27, St. John’s 23 Pat’s take: North Central 31, St. John’s 28	Adam’s take: North Central 10, St. John’s 7 Frank’s take: St. John’s 21, North Central 20 Greg’s take: North Central 24, St. John’s 23
Hansen odds to advance: St. John’s, 58%. Consensus: North Central, in a close game, and a split decision.
Keith’s take: Wartburg 38, Franklin 24 Ryan’s take: Wartburg 30, Franklin 27 Pat’s take: Wartburg 45, Franklin 31	Adam’s take: Wartburg 35, Franklin 27 Frank’s take: Wartburg 44, Franklin 31 Greg’s take: Wartburg 38, Franklin 28
Hansen odds to advance: Wartburg, 79%. Consensus: Wartburg the consensus winner, though everyone respect’s Franklin’s ability to score.
Keith’s take: Trine 19, Monmouth 16 Ryan’s take: Monmouth 31, Trine 20 Pat’s take: Monmouth 31, Trine 28	Adam’s take: Trine 17, Monmouth 13 Frank’s take: Trine 48, Monmouth 40 Greg’s take: Trine 38, Monmouth 28
Hansen odds to advance: Trine, 58%. Consensus: Wide variety of opinions. Two Trine slugfest wins, two Trine defensive battle wins, two Monmouth wins.

Mount Union bracket
Keith’s take: Mount Union 56, Wash. & Lee 14 Ryan’s take: Mount Union 51, Wash. & Lee 7 Pat’s take: Mount Union 48, Wash. & Lee 10	Adam’s take: Mount Union 49, Wash. & Lee 20 Frank’s take: Mount Union 60, Wash. & Lee 10 Greg’s take: Mount Union 56, Wash. & Lee 7
Hansen odds to advance: Mount Union, 99%. Consensus: Mount Union, in a win that a No. 1 seed would be satisfied with.
Keith’s take: Illinois Wesleyan 35, Case 13 Ryan’s take: Illinois Wesleyan 31, Case 21 Pat’s take: Illinois Wesleyan 35, Case 17	Adam’s take: Illinois Wesleyan 21, Case 16 Frank’s take: Case 31, Illinois Wesleyan 30 Greg’s take: Illinois Wesleyan 28, Case 10
Hansen odds to advance: Illinois Wesleyan, 61%. Consensus: IWU generally winning handily, with one outlier.
Keith’s take: W&J 42, Johns Hopkins 30 Ryan’s take: Johns Hopkins 35, W&J 34 Pat’s take: Johns Hopkins 28, W&J 24	Adam’s take: Johns Hopkins 38, W&J 34 Frank’s take: Johns Hopkins 35, W&J 28 Greg’s take: Johns Hopkins 27, W&J 24
Hansen odds to advance: Johns Hopkins, 68%. Consensus: Wow. Consensus is the road team. But consensus is also an exciting game.
Keith’s take: Wittenberg 17, Frostburg State 14 Ryan’s take: Frostburg State 27, Wittenberg 24 Pat’s take: Wittenberg 17, Frostburg State 15	Adam’s take: Wittenberg 30, Frostburg State 24 Frank’s take: Frostburg State 27, Wittenberg 24 Greg’s take: Wittenberg 14, Frostburg State 10
Hansen odds to advance: Wittenberg, 59%. Consensus: Generally low-scoring, all around, and generally with Wittenberg by a field goal or less.

Mary Hardin-Baylor bracket
Keith’s take: UMHB 40, Chapman 20 Ryan’s take: UMHB 48, Chapman 10 Pat’s take: UMHB 42, Chapman 17	Adam’s take: UMHB 58, Chapman 10 Frank’s take: UMHB 37, Chapman 10 Greg’s take: UMHB 48, Chapman 7
Hansen odds to advance: Mary Hardin-Baylor, 98%. Consensus: The defending champs, by a lot.
Keith’s take: Hardin-Simmons 14, Linfield 13 Ryan’s take: Hardin-Simmons 27, Linfield 14 Pat’s take: Hardin-Simmons 24, Linfield 19	Adam’s take: Hardin-Simmons 21, Linfield 17 Frank’s take: Linfield 14, Hardin-Simmons 10 Greg’s take: Hardin-Simmons 24, Linfield 10
Hansen odds to advance: Linfield, 65%. Consensus: HSU favored on the road, with Linfield kicking an undetermined number of field goa.s.
Keith’s take: St. Thomas 63, Eureka 0 Ryan’s take: St. Thomas 58, Eureka 7 Pat’s take: St. Thomas 56, Eureka 6	Adam’s take: St. Thomas 63, Eureka 13 Frank’s take: St. Thomas 51, Eureka 13 Greg’s take: St. Thomas 63, Eureka 0
Hansen odds to advance: St. Thomas, > 99%. Consensus: Tommies. Not in a mood to break scoring records.
Keith’s take: Berry 28, Huntingdon 24 Ryan’s take: Berry 35, Huntingdon 28 Pat’s take: Berry 24, Huntingdon 21	Adam’s take: Berry 27, Huntingdon 24 Frank’s take: Huntingdon 34, Berry 28 Greg’s take: Berry 28, Huntingdon 17
Hansen odds to advance: Huntingdon, 57%. Consensus: Berry. Mostly. Except for the one usual outlier.

Delaware Valley bracket
Keith’s take: Delaware Valley 38, Western NE 20 Ryan’s take: Delaware Valley 49, Western NE 17 Pat’s take: Delaware Valley 31, Western NE 10	Adam’s take: Delaware Valley 35, Western NE 14 Frank’s take: Delaware Valley 30, Western NE 21 Greg’s take: Delaware Valley 33, Western NE 13
Hansen odds to advance: Delaware Valley, 95% Consensus: Delaware Valley, by a range of points but all by multiple scores.
Keith’s take: Springfield 42, Husson 28 Ryan’s take: Springfield 38, Husson 35 Pat’s take: Springfield 45, Husson 31	Adam’s take: Springfield 38, Husson 24 Frank’s take: Springfield 42, Husson 20 Greg’s take: Springfield 42, Husson 21
Hansen odds to advance: Springfield, 83% Consensus: Springfield, generally comfortable, generally in a high-scoring game.
Keith’s take: Brockport 39, Plymouth State 13 Ryan’s take: Brockport 35, Plymouth State 10 Pat’s take: Brockport 24, Plymouth State 7	Adam’s take: Brockport 28, Plymouth State 20 Frank’s take: Brockport 27, Plymouth State 7 Greg’s take: Brockport 24, Plymouth State 7
Hansen odds to advance: Brockport, 99% Consensus: Brockport, generally comfortably, generally in a low-scoring game.
Keith’s take: Wesley 27, RPI 10 Ryan’s take: Wesley 38, RPI 6 Pat’s take: Wesley 38, RPI 14	Adam’s take: Wesley 41, RPI 12 Frank’s take: Wesley 37, RPI 17 Greg’s take: Wesley 38, RPI 10
Hansen odds to advance: Wesley, 91% Consensus: Wesley makes it final: No upsets expected in this bracket.

Here’s more data from Hansen Ratings. Select any two playoff teams to see how they would compare in a real or hypothetical matchup

We invite you to add your predictions in the comments below, or tweet at @d3football. Download the Around the Nation podcast on Mondays, where Pat and Keith review the picks and the highlights from the first round.

ATN Podcast 184: A step forward?

Posted on November 13, 2017 by Pat Coleman

So, we’ve become accustomed to a bracket with two flights in the first round, instead of one. Last year they told us it was no longer a one-time thing, and this year they followed through on that. But why is it that we can only keep two highly ranked teams apart for a round? Why do No. 5 and No. 8 play in order to potentially play No. 1 in the next round? You can find out more in this week’s D3football.com Around the Nation podcast.

This week, D3talent is the sponsor of the D3football.com Around the Nation Podcast. Find out more on our site, or at our Fanraise store.

Pat and Keith hand out game balls, find the hidden highlights, the interesting stats and then a whole bunch of bracket-specific items in the D3football.com Around the Nation Podcast. You do not want to leave this podcast early, before you hear the bonus picks.

The D3football.com Around the Nation Podcast is a regular conversation between Pat Coleman and Keith McMillan and guests covering the wide range of Division III football.

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Hardin-Simmons athletics photo by Scott Burkhalter
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Quick Hits: On the flip side

Posted on October 13, 2017 by Pat Coleman

We’re on the downhill slope now to Selection Sunday. Six weeks down, and five weeks left, with lots of questions to be answered. We’ll try to answer part of one-fifth of those questions here with our Quick Hits crew.

Our regular crew is Keith McMillan, Ryan Tipps, Pat Coleman, Adam Turer and Frank Rossi. Our sixth spot goes to a guest each week, and this week’s is Dave McHugh, the host of Hoopsville over at D3hoops.com. He typically pays enough attention to football to not pick Calvin, Connecticut College or either Centenary.

— Pat Coleman

What’s the Week 7 game of the week?

Keith’s take: No. 3 UW-Oshkosh at No. 9 UW-Platteville. With Wheaton’s struggles taking the luster off the Little Brass Bell clash, no game is even close.	Ryan’s take: No. 3 UW-Oshkosh at No. 9 UW-Platteville. Since 2013, the Pioneers have narrowly missed the postseason more than once. Here’s their 2017 chance.	Pat’s take: No. 3 UW-Oshkosh at No. 9 UW-Platteville. I mean, God forbid I suggest another game is worth paying attention to.
Adam’s take: No. 3 UW-Oshkosh at No. 9 UW-Platteville. Here’s the Pioneers’ real chance to silence the doubters.	Frank’s take: No. 25 Springfield at Merchant Marine. This is a test for the Pride in a must-win for Pool B/C playoff consideration.	Dave’s take: No. 3 UW-Oshkosh at No. 9 UW-Platteville. Unfortunately, it has been awhile since these two have played as intriguing a matchup in basketball.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to get upset?

Keith’s take: No. 19 Berry. The Vikings have had Hendrix’s number. The 5-1 Warriors will need a big game from its 194th-best defense.	Ryan’s take: No. 17 Alfred. Opponent Cortland is a two-loss team and will be fighting to stay in E8 playoff discussion.	Pat’s take: No. 19 Berry. From just outside the rankings, to top 20, to playing the other team with playoff experience.
Adam’s take: No. 17 Alfred at Cortland. But honestly it feels more like a “Pat’s special” week, aka no upsets.	Frank’s take: No. 4 North Central. After a hellacious couple of weeks, Wheaton has a chance to turn the season back around here with nothing left to lose.	Dave’s take: No. 4 North Central. I am not one to think Wheaton is down and out. I suspect the Cardinals get tripped up by the Thunder, who right the ship after a few distraction-filled weeks.

Which team is probably safe to focus more on next week?

Keith’s take: No. 18 Frostburg State. William Paterson has just three touchdowns in five games and field the nation’s least-successful offense.	Ryan’s take: No. 12 Wittenberg. Allegheny is improved, but a win should be easy, and Witt should be more worried about DePauw on the horizon.	Pat’s take: No. 7 Linfield. Lewis & Clark is improved, but if the Wildcats were prepping for George Fox this week, I don’t think it’ll be an issue.
Adam’s take: No. 18 Frostburg State (at William Paterson). Coaches gonna hate you for this one, Pat. will bounce back in time for Montclair State on Oct. 21.	Frank’s take: No. 14 Wesley (vs. Kean). Rowan should put up a better fight against Wesley next week.	Dave’s take: I can only pick one? Ok. I’ll go with Mount Union. Nothing against Capital, but I just don’t see the Raiders being challenged. Sorry Crusaders..

Which early-season surprise team will get some reality?

Keith’s take: DePauw, with a 5-0 start and lofty defensive stats game against average-at-best teams. After Witt, Wabash losses, Denison set to bust out.	Ryan’s take: UW-La Crosse. Is this the easy pick with Whitewater on the other sideline?	Pat’s take: Williams. Because, on the other side, there’s Middlebury, and Williams sweeping C-B-B is less impressive.
Adam’s take: Ursinus. Bears will drop second straight, at Susquehanna, putting JHU back in the Centennial driver’s seat just two weeks after being upset.	Frank’s take: Plymouth State. Quron Wright & Co. for Framingham State will take a huge step toward winning the MASCAC at one-loss PSU’s expense.	Dave’s take: UW-La Crosse. Undefeated and probably looking at Whitewater and thinking the scary monster isn’t that scary. I think Whitewater is still very scary.

Who will get their first win this weekend?

Keith’s take: Kenyon. The 0-5 Lords were thwarted by a late Ohio Wesleyan score last week, and host 1-4 Hiram this week.	Ryan’s take: Hamilton. Against winless Bowdoin in a conference with lots of disparity.	Pat’s take: FInlandia. Utterly devoid of games which count, the Lions have a home-and-home remaining with Trinity Bible and that’s it for 2017.
Adam’s take: Hamilton. The 0-4 NESCAC team faces 0-4 Bowdoin. I’m rolling with the Continentals.	Frank’s take: Kenyon. With Hiram at one win, this is probably Kenyon’s best chance for a 2017 win.	Dave’s take: Hamilton. I have no choice. It is my maternal family’s “school” and my grandfather was a trustee. That trumps any Maine connections I have — sorry, Bowdoin.

Pick a game where the winner has the less fierce mascot.

Keith’s take: Guilford. Quakers’ record is deceiving because of two FCS losses. More-fierce Generals of W&L are six points from being unbeaten, though.	Ryan’s take: St. Scholastica Saints. The UMAC contender faces the Knights of Martin Luther.	Pat’s take: Carnegie Mellon (vs. Geneva). Tartans over Golden Wave. Water-logged swatches of material for the win.
Adam’s take: Redlands. The Bulldogs defeat the Chapman Panthers. Everyone gets treats for the short trip home	Frank’s take: Trinity (Conn.). The Bantams over the Tufts Jumbos. Chickens may be no match for elephants in nature, but this will be a plucking win for the Bantams.	Dave’s take: Otterbein (vs. Heidelberg). Nothing puts the fear in people than Cardinals playing Princes. This feels like a Medieval times or Dark Ages matchup where royalty and the church clashed.

We invite you to add your predictions in the comments below. Download the Around the Nation podcast on Mondays, where Pat and Keith review the Quick Hits that were prescient, and the Quick Misses that were terribly off base.